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Posted: 5/13/2019 2:57:25 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
This doesn't exactly seem like a good time for American companies to be expanding their manufacturing operations in China. 
Tesla stock is down to 225 today. It dropped more than ten percent in the last week, and hasn't been this low in two years. There's a lot of speculation in the stock boards about Elon Musk being hit with a margin call, if the stock price drops to around $200-210. I don't think there will be a big disastrous margin call for him that sends the stock crashing. |
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Posted: 5/13/2019 3:27:29 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Elon personally took over the autonomous driving division last week because no one can get it done like he can. I would expect another mass exodus of engineering talent in short order Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted: I know a few current and former Tesla production line folks. They said line fuck ups were pretty common along with accidents. High turn over due to shitty conditions and management were a common theme when talking about it. |
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Posted: 5/13/2019 3:35:17 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Next, Elon will need to personally take over Tesla's Legal division. Truly autonomous driving won't be legal for another 10+ years due to the legal/administrative issues. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted: I know a few current and former Tesla production line folks. They said line fuck ups were pretty common along with accidents. High turn over due to shitty conditions and management were a common theme when talking about it. |
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Posted: 5/13/2019 10:06:31 PM EDT
[#4]
Here's an interesting analysis of Tesla's financials.
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Posted: 5/14/2019 5:11:47 AM EDT
[#5]
https://www.valuewalk.com/2019/05/tesla-raise-capital-convertible-bond/
Interesting article with some deeper technical detail about the recent capital raise. Spoiler: The market charged them 8.5% interest, commensurate with the current yield of their underwater 2017 bonds. |
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Posted: 5/14/2019 10:34:15 AM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
https://www.valuewalk.com/2019/05/tesla-raise-capital-convertible-bond/ Interesting article with some deeper technical detail about the recent capital raise. Spoiler: The market cjharged them 8.5% interest, commensurate with the current yield of their underwater 2017 bonds. Interesting, and dumbed down enough for folks like me. |
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Posted: 5/14/2019 2:27:24 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Next, Elon will need to personally take over Tesla's Legal division. Truly autonomous driving won't be legal for another 10+ years due to the legal/administrative issues. |
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Posted: 5/14/2019 2:55:13 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Why do you think they want to get into the automobile insurance business? No one will write policies for his self-driving fleet. |
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Posted: 5/14/2019 5:23:32 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Yup. I am no longer allowed to write any of the cars with auto drive on commercial policies. <- P&C licensed |
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Posted: 5/14/2019 5:26:30 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Yup. I am no longer allowed to write any of the cars with auto drive on commercial policies. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted: Why do you think they want to get into the automobile insurance business? No one will write policies for his self-driving fleet. Like fleet vehicles or any commercial? |
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Posted: 5/14/2019 6:44:44 PM EDT
[#11]
I would have to imagine that its going to be an absurdly high premium for any true self-driving vehicle even if its for non-commercial use. This has never been done before, Elon got that figured out, hence the auto-insurance branch out
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Posted: 5/14/2019 6:54:23 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Why do you think they want to get into the automobile insurance business? No one will write policies for his self-driving fleet. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Next, Elon will need to personally take over Tesla's Legal division. Truly autonomous driving won't be legal for another 10+ years due to the legal/administrative issues. Insurance companies realize that autonomous car policies aren't going to be profitable. Say you're driving your old Ford down the road, and Bubba walks out in front of you. You hit him, and break his bones. - It's either your fault, or Bubba's fault. You will probably get sued, even if it was Bubba's fault. Ford rarely gets sued in situations like this. Say your autonomous Tesla is driving down the road, and Bubba walks out in front of it. The Tesla hits him, and breaks his bones. - It's either the Tesla's fault, or Bubba's fault. Tesla will probably get sued, even if it was Bubba's fault. Tesla is going to get sued. Every. Single. Time. |
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Posted: 5/15/2019 7:50:12 AM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Only commercial? Like fleet vehicles or any commercial? It is not just Tesla it’s all cars with auto drive. |
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Posted: 5/15/2019 10:33:09 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Yup. I am no longer allowed to write any of the cars with auto drive on commercial policies. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted: Why do you think they want to get into the automobile insurance business? No one will write policies for his self-driving fleet. Also, at some point, the auto drive will be better than your average and then better than your best drivers. |
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Posted: 5/15/2019 10:52:47 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
How is auto drive defined? For instance, I have a Subaru with their eyesight system. It will nudge the steering wheel if you turn it on. If the road is flat, the lines well defined and no crosswind it will keep you in the lane. Presumably Tesla's autopilot would count so the line has to be somewhere between the two. Also, at some point, the auto drive will be better than your average and then better than your best drivers. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted: Why do you think they want to get into the automobile insurance business? No one will write policies for his self-driving fleet. Also, at some point, the auto drive will be better than your average and then better than your best drivers. Contrast that with an automobile manufacturer, the software developer, etc. How many deep wells of $$$$ are there to go after once a car on “autopilot” kills a pedestrian or driver. |
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Posted: 5/15/2019 11:25:10 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Why do you think they want to get into the automobile insurance business? No one will write policies for his self-driving fleet. |
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Posted: 5/16/2019 7:55:24 AM EDT
[#17]
This doesn't sound good.
Tesla has started pushing out a software update that will change battery charge and thermal management settings in Model S sedans and Model X SUVs following a fire in a parked vehicle in Hong Kong earlier this week. https://techcrunch.com/2019/05/15/tesla-issues-battery-software-update-after-hong-kong-vehicle-fire/ |
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Posted: 5/16/2019 8:40:34 AM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
How is auto drive defined? For instance, I have a Subaru with their eyesight system. It will nudge the steering wheel if you turn it on. If the road is flat, the lines well defined and no crosswind it will keep you in the lane. Presumably Tesla's autopilot would count so the line has to be somewhere between the two. Also, at some point, the auto drive will be better than your average and then better than your best drivers. |
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Posted: 5/16/2019 4:09:22 PM EDT
[#19]
so in the past day, Tesla lost yet another executive, threw in the towel on the solar business, and admitted they have a battery\software problem that causes vehicles to spontaneously combust, and the NTSB issued a report saying there was a crash with autopilot engaged and working with a stationary object and yet the fanbois are still buying this turd of a stock because Elon will save the world.
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Posted: 5/16/2019 4:31:46 PM EDT
[#20]
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Posted: 5/16/2019 8:58:14 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
There are different autonomy level ratings. Someone will be along to articulate it better Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
How is auto drive defined? For instance, I have a Subaru with their eyesight system. It will nudge the steering wheel if you turn it on. If the road is flat, the lines well defined and no crosswind it will keep you in the lane. Presumably Tesla's autopilot would count so the line has to be somewhere between the two. Also, at some point, the auto drive will be better than your average and then better than your best drivers. |
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Posted: 5/16/2019 9:54:58 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
How on earth are Tesla continuing to defy financial gravity? I don't understand it. The wheels have to come off soon, surely? Because Tesla are the poster child for the green movement, there's a lot of denial to go around, but reality has to catch up soon, and I think it will be in the form of big auto finally waking up and stomping on Tesla's market. Big auto will only stomp on Tesla’s market if they think the market is big enough to be worth stomping. I think lithium batteries are not the best idea for durable goods that people expect to own for 5-10 years. Seems most people have this figured out or maybe the cars are just too expensive to be economically viable. |
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Posted: 5/17/2019 10:38:04 AM EDT
[#23]
NTSB confirms Autopilot killed another: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/teslas-stock-dives-toward-2-12-year-low-after-ntsb-crash-report-2019-05-17?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
Stock price getting hurt again today. Reality is really setting in. If you bought anytime after December of 2016 and held you've lost money. If you bought at almost any time after February of 2014 and held you've lost money. Interesting quote from the story linked above: Separately, Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk reportedly told employees that the $2.2 billion in cash reserves only gives the company about 10 months to break even, at recent cash burn rates. It's interesting also that in the Q1 investors letter they claimed that their $2.2B of Cash and Cash Equivalents at the time was "sufficient," and then they almost immediately raised another $2.2B cash, and then claimed they have $2.2B total in cash. Remember, "There's never just a little bit of fraud." |
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Posted: 5/17/2019 10:41:14 AM EDT
[#24]
Elon and the CFO are now personally authorizing every expenditure, this went out in an a memo to Tesla employees yesterday. The 2Bn they just raised will last them 10 months at best, the stock is down 4% so far this morning and is below $220. Once they hit margin call territory on Elon's loans that's all she wrote and that could be today
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Posted: 5/17/2019 3:46:19 PM EDT
[#25]
Well things are certainly getting interesting. Tesla stock dropped 7% today.
From: Elon Musk To: Everybody Date: May 16, 2019 As mentioned at the company talk, it is extremely important that we examine every expenditure at Tesla no matter how small, and be sure that it is critical. When making hundreds of thousands of cars, battery packs and solar systems, even a ten cent savings could be worth over $50,000 a year. There are over 10,000 unique parts and processes at Tesla, so making small improvements across the board has a giant cumulative impact. At the same time, we must also continue to make our products subtly better in thousands of small ways. It is important to bear in mind that we lost $700 million in the first quarter this year, which is over $200 million per month. Investors nonetheless were supportive of our efforts and agreed to give us $2.4 billion (our net proceeds) to show that we can be financially sustainable. That is a lot of money, but actually only gives us approximately ten months at the first-quarter burn rate to achieve breakeven. It's vital that we respect the faith investors have shown in Tesla, but it will require great effort to do so. That is why, going forward, all expenses of any kind anywhere in the world, including parts, salary, travel expenses, rent, literally every payment that leaves our bank account must be reviewed, confirmed as critical and the top of every page of outgoing payments signed by our CFO. I will personally review and sign every 10th page. Please examine closely every expense where responsibility is, or probably should be, assigned to your group. If in doubt, assume it is on your plate, so that we don't have anything slip through the cracks. This will take at least a few weeks to get right. Please don't worry if it isn't correct at first. This is hardcore, but it is the only way for Tesla to become financially sustainable and succeed in our goal of helping make the world environmentally sustainable. Thanks again for your excellent work, Elon |
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Posted: 5/17/2019 3:50:10 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Well things are certainly getting interesting. Tesla stock dropped 7% today. From: Elon Musk To: Everybody Date: May 16, 2019 As mentioned at the company talk, it is extremely important that we examine every expenditure at Tesla no matter how small, and be sure that it is critical. When making hundreds of thousands of cars, battery packs and solar systems, even a ten cent savings could be worth over $50,000 a year. There are over 10,000 unique parts and processes at Tesla, so making small improvements across the board has a giant cumulative impact. At the same time, we must also continue to make our products subtly better in thousands of small ways. It is important to bear in mind that we lost $700 million in the first quarter this year, which is over $200 million per month. Investors nonetheless were supportive of our efforts and agreed to give us $2.4 billion (our net proceeds) to show that we can be financially sustainable. That is a lot of money, but actually only gives us approximately ten months at the first-quarter burn rate to achieve breakeven. It's vital that we respect the faith investors have shown in Tesla, but it will require great effort to do so. That is why, going forward, all expenses of any kind anywhere in the world, including parts, salary, travel expenses, rent, literally every payment that leaves our bank account must be reviewed, confirmed as critical and the top of every page of outgoing payments signed by our CFO. I will personally review and sign every 10th page. Please examine closely every expense where responsibility is, or probably should be, assigned to your group. If in doubt, assume it is on your plate, so that we don't have anything slip through the cracks. This will take at least a few weeks to get right. Please don't worry if it isn't correct at first. This is hardcore, but it is the only way for Tesla to become financially sustainable and succeed in our goal of helping make the world environmentally sustainable. Thanks again for your excellent work, Elon That will totally work out great! 
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Posted: 5/17/2019 4:14:47 PM EDT
[#27]
Insert Now We Throw Back & Heads & Laugh .gif
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Posted: 5/17/2019 5:58:14 PM EDT
[#28]
Here's one of the best analysis of Tesla's financials I've seen to date:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4264912-tesla-pivots-oblivion |
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Posted: 5/17/2019 6:21:16 PM EDT
[#29]
I've worked for several tech companies that bit the dust and every one of them failed just a few months after the CEO sent an e-mail saying he was going to personally review expense reports and purchase orders. In my experience, that is the biggest red flag of all because it's generally the only hint one gets that the company is in serious trouble, especially if the company is pre-IPO. Tesla is already publicly traded, so that kind of e-mail is just another nail in the coffin, but it's quite telling because CEOs tend not to admit there is a problem even if they are up to their necks in problems and their public position is untenable.
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Posted: 5/17/2019 10:08:33 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Here's one of the best analysis of Tesla's financials I've seen to date: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4264912-tesla-pivots-oblivion Quote HistoryQuoted:
Here's one of the best analysis of Tesla's financials I've seen to date: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4264912-tesla-pivots-oblivion Conclusion
This year, the final word, by courtesy of the Book of Daniel: MENE, MENE, TEKEL, UPHARSIN |
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Posted: 5/18/2019 10:10:01 AM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I've worked for several tech companies that bit the dust and every one of them failed just a few months after the CEO sent an e-mail saying he was going to personally review expense reports and purchase orders. In my experience, that is the biggest red flag of all because it's generally the only hint one gets that the company is in serious trouble, especially if the company is pre-IPO. Tesla is already publicly traded, so that kind of e-mail is just another nail in the coffin, but it's quite telling because CEOs tend not to admit there is a problem even if they are up to their necks in problems and their public position is untenable. |
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Posted: 5/18/2019 5:34:19 PM EDT
[#32]
It's interesting that none of the Tesla fanboys have checked into this thread lately.
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Posted: 5/18/2019 8:35:25 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
It's interesting that none of the Tesla fanboys have checked into this thread lately. "Your Model 3 will be an appreciating asset, becoming worth $250k in the next three years." "We'll have a million robotaxis on the road next year." "Tesla will be a $500B company." "Model Y is a seven passenger SUV." Combined with the zaniness that's only about 4 months old at this point: "We expect to be profitable every quarter from now on." Followed shortly by, "We lost money in Q1 and expect to lose money in Q2." "We'll never need to raise money again." Followed shortly by, "We're doing our largest cash raise ever." "We're shutting down the showrooms." Followed shortly by, "I guess not." Combined with the older still outstanding zaniness: "Semi and R2 coming in 2019." "Shanghai factory making 3k cars/week before the end of 2019." "Model 3 will make us a profitable company." "Machine that builds the machine." "5k Model 3s per week." <--- (This one in 4 different variations, all still failures since they're still not producing them at 5k/week.) "10k Model 3s per week." No one can take Elon seriously at this point, and Tesla's future looks like it's a toss-up between Chapter 7 and Chapter 11. At this point even the most clown-shoes zealots who used to post in this thread have to admit that they were flat wrong about everything. That's why they're not here any more. The numbers have been available since 2016. Tesla's fate was sealed when they acquired Solar City. Only the people who wanted to believe a green-washed fantasy still held out hope beyond that. For them it was an emotional attachment to the dream of Tesla, not a rational financial investment against the company's stock price. My only regret is that I bet too little. |
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Posted: 5/18/2019 9:52:37 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
It's interesting that none of the Tesla fanboys have checked into this thread lately. I would really love to hear from him. |
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Posted: 5/18/2019 9:54:40 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
After the recent zaniness: "Your Model 3 will be an appreciating asset, becoming worth $250k in the next three years." "We'll have a million robotaxis on the road next year." "Tesla will be a $500B company." "Model Y is a seven passenger SUV." Combined with the zaniness that's only about 4 months old at this point: "We expect to be profitable every quarter from now on." Followed shortly by, "We lost money in Q1 and expect to lose money in Q2." "We'll never need to raise money again." Followed shortly by, "We're doing our largest cash raise ever." "We're shutting down the showrooms." Followed shortly by, "I guess not." Combined with the older still outstanding zaniness: "Semi and R2 coming in 2019." "Shanghai factory making 3k cars/week before the end of 2019." "Model 3 will make us a profitable company." "Machine that builds the machine." "5k Model 3s per week." <--- (This one in 4 different variations, all still failures since they're still not producing them at 5k/week.) "10k Model 3s per week." No one can take Elon seriously at this point, and Tesla's future looks like it's a toss-up between Chapter 7 and Chapter 11. At this point even the most clown-shoes zealots who used to post in this thread have to admit that they were flat wrong about everything. That's why they're not here any more. The numbers have been available since 2016. Tesla's fate was sealed when they acquired Solar City. Only the people who wanted to believe a green-washed fantasy still held out hope beyond that. For them it was an emotional attachment to the dream of Tesla, not a rational financial investment against the company's stock price. My only regret is that I bet too little. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
It's interesting that none of the Tesla fanboys have checked into this thread lately. "Your Model 3 will be an appreciating asset, becoming worth $250k in the next three years." "We'll have a million robotaxis on the road next year." "Tesla will be a $500B company." "Model Y is a seven passenger SUV." Combined with the zaniness that's only about 4 months old at this point: "We expect to be profitable every quarter from now on." Followed shortly by, "We lost money in Q1 and expect to lose money in Q2." "We'll never need to raise money again." Followed shortly by, "We're doing our largest cash raise ever." "We're shutting down the showrooms." Followed shortly by, "I guess not." Combined with the older still outstanding zaniness: "Semi and R2 coming in 2019." "Shanghai factory making 3k cars/week before the end of 2019." "Model 3 will make us a profitable company." "Machine that builds the machine." "5k Model 3s per week." <--- (This one in 4 different variations, all still failures since they're still not producing them at 5k/week.) "10k Model 3s per week." No one can take Elon seriously at this point, and Tesla's future looks like it's a toss-up between Chapter 7 and Chapter 11. At this point even the most clown-shoes zealots who used to post in this thread have to admit that they were flat wrong about everything. That's why they're not here any more. The numbers have been available since 2016. Tesla's fate was sealed when they acquired Solar City. Only the people who wanted to believe a green-washed fantasy still held out hope beyond that. For them it was an emotional attachment to the dream of Tesla, not a rational financial investment against the company's stock price. My only regret is that I bet too little. This sums up much of thread |
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Posted: 5/18/2019 9:58:18 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
It's interesting that none of the Tesla fanboys have checked into this thread lately. |
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Posted: 5/18/2019 10:12:18 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Well things are certainly getting interesting. Tesla stock dropped 7% today. From: Elon Musk To: Everybody Date: May 16, 2019 As mentioned at the company talk, it is extremely important that we examine every expenditure at Tesla no matter how small, and be sure that it is critical. When making hundreds of thousands of cars, battery packs and solar systems, even a ten cent savings could be worth over $50,000 a year. There are over 10,000 unique parts and processes at Tesla, so making small improvements across the board has a giant cumulative impact. At the same time, we must also continue to make our products subtly better in thousands of small ways. It is important to bear in mind that we lost $700 million in the first quarter this year, which is over $200 million per month. Investors nonetheless were supportive of our efforts and agreed to give us $2.4 billion (our net proceeds) to show that we can be financially sustainable. That is a lot of money, but actually only gives us approximately ten months at the first-quarter burn rate to achieve breakeven. It's vital that we respect the faith investors have shown in Tesla, but it will require great effort to do so. That is why, going forward, all expenses of any kind anywhere in the world, including parts, salary, travel expenses, rent, literally every payment that leaves our bank account must be reviewed, confirmed as critical and the top of every page of outgoing payments signed by our CFO. I will personally review and sign every 10th page. Please examine closely every expense where responsibility is, or probably should be, assigned to your group. If in doubt, assume it is on your plate, so that we don't have anything slip through the cracks. This will take at least a few weeks to get right. Please don't worry if it isn't correct at first. This is hardcore, but it is the only way for Tesla to become financially sustainable and succeed in our goal of helping make the world environmentally sustainable. Thanks again for your excellent work, Elon |
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Posted: 5/18/2019 11:05:04 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
It's interesting that none of the Tesla fanboys have checked into this thread lately.  Attached File |
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Posted: 5/18/2019 11:53:46 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
They are too busy BTFD. https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/200878/8578E4BE-FA55-4DB4-B40A-55A302C5D347_jpeg-950058.JPG Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
It's interesting that none of the Tesla fanboys have checked into this thread lately. https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/200878/8578E4BE-FA55-4DB4-B40A-55A302C5D347_jpeg-950058.JPG |
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Posted: 5/19/2019 12:25:11 AM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
That’s a fascinating display of micromanagement. It will be seen as the death knell of Tesla. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Well things are certainly getting interesting. Tesla stock dropped 7% today. From: Elon Musk To: Everybody Date: May 16, 2019 As mentioned at the company talk, it is extremely important that we examine every expenditure at Tesla no matter how small, and be sure that it is critical. When making hundreds of thousands of cars, battery packs and solar systems, even a ten cent savings could be worth over $50,000 a year. There are over 10,000 unique parts and processes at Tesla, so making small improvements across the board has a giant cumulative impact. At the same time, we must also continue to make our products subtly better in thousands of small ways. It is important to bear in mind that we lost $700 million in the first quarter this year, which is over $200 million per month. Investors nonetheless were supportive of our efforts and agreed to give us $2.4 billion (our net proceeds) to show that we can be financially sustainable. That is a lot of money, but actually only gives us approximately ten months at the first-quarter burn rate to achieve breakeven. It's vital that we respect the faith investors have shown in Tesla, but it will require great effort to do so. That is why, going forward, all expenses of any kind anywhere in the world, including parts, salary, travel expenses, rent, literally every payment that leaves our bank account must be reviewed, confirmed as critical and the top of every page of outgoing payments signed by our CFO. I will personally review and sign every 10th page. Please examine closely every expense where responsibility is, or probably should be, assigned to your group. If in doubt, assume it is on your plate, so that we don't have anything slip through the cracks. This will take at least a few weeks to get right. Please don't worry if it isn't correct at first. This is hardcore, but it is the only way for Tesla to become financially sustainable and succeed in our goal of helping make the world environmentally sustainable. Thanks again for your excellent work, Elon |
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Posted: 5/19/2019 12:36:00 AM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
After the recent zaniness: "Your Model 3 will be an appreciating asset, becoming worth $250k in the next three years." "We'll have a million robotaxis on the road next year." "Tesla will be a $500B company." "Model Y is a seven passenger SUV." Combined with the zaniness that's only about 4 months old at this point: "We expect to be profitable every quarter from now on." Followed shortly by, "We lost money in Q1 and expect to lose money in Q2." "We'll never need to raise money again." Followed shortly by, "We're doing our largest cash raise ever." "We're shutting down the showrooms." Followed shortly by, "I guess not." Combined with the older still outstanding zaniness: "Semi and R2 coming in 2019." "Shanghai factory making 3k cars/week before the end of 2019." "Model 3 will make us a profitable company." "Machine that builds the machine." "5k Model 3s per week." <--- (This one in 4 different variations, all still failures since they're still not producing them at 5k/week.) "10k Model 3s per week." No one can take Elon seriously at this point, and Tesla's future looks like it's a toss-up between Chapter 7 and Chapter 11. At this point even the most clown-shoes zealots who used to post in this thread have to admit that they were flat wrong about everything. That's why they're not here any more. The numbers have been available since 2016. Tesla's fate was sealed when they acquired Solar City. Only the people who wanted to believe a green-washed fantasy still held out hope beyond that. For them it was an emotional attachment to the dream of Tesla, not a rational financial investment against the company's stock price. My only regret is that I bet too little. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
It's interesting that none of the Tesla fanboys have checked into this thread lately. "Your Model 3 will be an appreciating asset, becoming worth $250k in the next three years." "We'll have a million robotaxis on the road next year." "Tesla will be a $500B company." "Model Y is a seven passenger SUV." Combined with the zaniness that's only about 4 months old at this point: "We expect to be profitable every quarter from now on." Followed shortly by, "We lost money in Q1 and expect to lose money in Q2." "We'll never need to raise money again." Followed shortly by, "We're doing our largest cash raise ever." "We're shutting down the showrooms." Followed shortly by, "I guess not." Combined with the older still outstanding zaniness: "Semi and R2 coming in 2019." "Shanghai factory making 3k cars/week before the end of 2019." "Model 3 will make us a profitable company." "Machine that builds the machine." "5k Model 3s per week." <--- (This one in 4 different variations, all still failures since they're still not producing them at 5k/week.) "10k Model 3s per week." No one can take Elon seriously at this point, and Tesla's future looks like it's a toss-up between Chapter 7 and Chapter 11. At this point even the most clown-shoes zealots who used to post in this thread have to admit that they were flat wrong about everything. That's why they're not here any more. The numbers have been available since 2016. Tesla's fate was sealed when they acquired Solar City. Only the people who wanted to believe a green-washed fantasy still held out hope beyond that. For them it was an emotional attachment to the dream of Tesla, not a rational financial investment against the company's stock price. My only regret is that I bet too little. |
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Posted: 5/19/2019 5:34:42 AM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Yeah, I'm not convinced it's hit bottom yet... But it's hard to bet against it right now, since the recent capital raise gives them an easy 9-15 more months of cash to fire the incinerator. The options trade has become crowded and expensive; I haven't had a position since early March. I'm going to wait for the July 2021 puts to go on sale, and then maybe get back in. |
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Posted: 5/20/2019 8:40:23 AM EDT
[#43]
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Posted: 5/20/2019 6:38:23 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
https://img2.thejournal.ie/inline/2722169/original/?width=413&version=2722169 Might be worth the lawsuits... |
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Posted: 5/20/2019 10:34:36 PM EDT
[#45]
$180 a share by weeks end.
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Posted: 5/21/2019 7:54:53 AM EDT
[#46]
Morgan Stanley analysts have delivered another blow to Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), slashing their worse-case scenario for the stock price to just $10 (from $97) because of concerns the electric-car leader has saturated the market.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3465547-morgan-stanley-cuts-bear-case-tesla-10 Also on CNBC this morning. |
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Posted: 5/21/2019 10:50:11 AM EDT
[#47]
It must be odd being a Tesla employee, because you clearly cannot believe anything your CEO tells you.
When Musk announced in June 2018 that Tesla was going to lay off about 9% of their entire workforce, he explicitly told employees that they were making this hard choice so they would never have to do it again. Then, in Jan 2019, he tells them that 7% of the workforce is going to be fired.  Granted - they had hired a lot of new people, but that just suggests very erratic management and leadership - and very poor abilities to forecast. Now we're firing, now we're hiring again, now we're firing again, etc.
It's sort of like him one day saying that they're going to get rid of showrooms and fire all those employees, and then shortly after that changing his mind and saying they're not going to do that after all. Combine this with the examples of him overtly LYING to the public and investors (like the whole "funding secured" bullshit) - and it's got to be a bit weird working at Tesla, knowing that you cannot necessarily believe or rely upon anything that your CEO tells you or the public. I suspect that future business cases written about Tesla and Elon Musk will not be kind to him - and will likely conclude that the company could have been FAR more successful with someone else at the helm. |
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Posted: 5/21/2019 11:00:55 AM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
It must be odd being a Tesla employee, because you clearly cannot believe anything your CEO tells you. When Musk announced in June 2018 that Tesla was going to lay off about 9% of their entire workforce, he explicitly told employees that they were making this hard choice so they would never have to do it again. Then, in Jan 2019, he tells them that 7% of the workforce is going to be fired. Granted - they had hired a lot of new people, but that just suggests very erratic management and leadership - and very poor abilities to forecast. Now we're firing, now we're hiring again, now we're firing again, etc.
It's sort of like him one day saying that they're going to get rid of showrooms and fire all those employees, and then shortly after that changing his mind and saying they're not going to do that after all. Combine this with the examples of him overtly LYING to the public and investors (like the whole "funding secured" bullshit) - and it's got to be a bit weird working at Tesla, knowing that you cannot necessarily believe or rely upon anything that your CEO tells you or the public. I suspect that future business cases written about Tesla and Elon Musk will not be kind to him - and will likely conclude that the company could have been FAR more successful with someone else at the helm. |
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Posted: 5/21/2019 11:10:48 AM EDT
[#49]
Those of you that follow Tesla closely, what do you think will become of it?
Bankruptcy, then fire sale? Or it just shuts its doors and ceases to operate? Or another company or investor group buys it out, fires Musk and continues operating? Other? It sounds like the end is nigh for the current iteration, but I don't really understand modern business, where companies seem to be able to operate and even grow while bleeding money like a disemboweled pig. |
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Posted: 5/21/2019 11:15:53 AM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Those of you that follow Tesla closely, what do you think will become of it? Bankruptcy, then fire sale? Or it just shuts its doors and ceases to operate? Or another company or investor group buys it out, fires Musk and continues operating? Other? It sounds like the end is nigh for the current iteration, but I don't really understand modern business, where companies seem to be able to operate and even grow while bleeding money like a disemboweled pig. |
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