To make things even more interesting, there is controversy over whether the snipers were firing from protester controlled buildings or govt controlled buildings and to date nobody has been convicted of the massacre. Though several of the Berkut police fled to Russia.

I'm from Minneapolis so I know what a revolt looks like. They burned down a police station that a few days before had hundreds of police in it.





At the time I was all for sending in the military and tanks and squashing it, but they stood down and watched. It's still a controversial decision today.

But that was "mostly peaceful."

It was also organized by the CIA

Apparently Victoria Nuland wanted Minneapolis to burn

Wanted Minneapolis to join nato

But this was different:






Now, it did get worse after the massacre:



But like I said, that's not a reason for Yanukovych to flee. The warrant for his arrest was.

Wait, the pro Russian leader of Ukraine fled
To Russia after his actual JBTs shot unarmed protestors?

Russians would say that's never been proven
And that's the guy Russia wants to put back in charge of Ukraine.

Why is this point the hill to die on?  

The US was widely acknowledged to be involved in supporting the orange revolution, (2004) so was Canada and many other western nations.

No real secret even at the time. We were promoting democracy using soft power influences like NGOs advancing good governance, political action, USAID grants, State programs etc...this is not disputed. Certainly Putin was aware of our influence.

So we have a pattern and history not just of doing these things, but doing these things in Ukraine.  Fast forward about a decade and our efforts begin to really bear fruit. The federal government is still a sloppy corrupt shit show but the populace is eager to join the western sphere of influence.  

The whole Biden thing is happening in this period, which is relevant in as much as it shows US influence in Ukrainian big business.  The US VP is clearly directly involved and is the point man in the Obama administration for Ukraine.

The EU starts working on trade deals and loan guarantees or some form of aid to modernize Ukraine. Discussions of joining NATO are happening.

Putin sees all this, tries to counter western influence with his own trade deals and money, probably implies bad things could happen if Yank doesn't agree to the Russian deal.  So he does.

The people want to westernize, they see the obvious corruption between Yank and Putin, boom they protest, euromaidan revolution.  Yank handles it badly, US under secretaries of state are handling out cookies and encouraging the protesters, Yank tries to reverse course, the people don't buy it, the police shoot some protesters, Yank knows his goose is cooked so he flees to Russia.  He is replaced by western friendly leadership.

This has turned into a shit sandwich on Putin, from his perspective the west has won the soft power war that has been going on for at least a decade.   Ukraine will be permanently pulled into the western sphere of influence.  Likely join the EU and possibly NATO.

Not many cards left to play from the Russian perspective.  So in goes Wagner and the little green mean to Crimea.  Then an "uprising" happens in the donbas.  Low risk high reward actions and they work well. Can't join NATO when you're in an active conflict. Check.   I think Trump made the whole world uncomfortable so things were stable during his time, but he did send lethal aid to Ukraine, so a further escalation, from the Russian perspective.

Biden happens, soup sandwich that he is, weak, compromised on Ukraine, the afghan withdrawal is a disaster.  Putin has no respect for weakness, so he takes the next step. Biden sees it coming, threatens Russia with sanctions, putin calls his bluff and invades.

Now we have a hot proxy war, where we had two decades of soft or cold proxy war.  Really not all that different than the original cold war.

How after all that can anyone say that the US wasn't involved in the color revolutions in Ukraine? Of course we were.   They don't happen without us.

Did we have CIA agents directing politicians and popular fronts...maybe, I haven't seen any evidence of it but I wouldn't be shocked.  But we certainly, and openly used money, diplomacy and social influence to peel Ukraine out of Putins control.  Is that better than arming an insurgency and assassinating leaders? Sure, but it's the same result.

So pages ago when I quipped that we poked the bear, that is what I meant.  We made an open and obvious effort to remove Ukraine from Russias influence and thereby weaken Russia.  

We really can't then be shocked that putin took actions to prevent that.  We also owed it to the people of Ukraine to either leave them alone or pull them all the way into our protection.   That's where we screwed up, and continue to screw up.

Putin really is a manlet isn't he? Or Yank is 7 feet tall.

The vehemence with which Western commentators deny the self-determination of Eastern European peoples (“They [color revolutions] don't happen without us.”) and claim that they would happily live under Russian subjugation if not for the CIA is quite astonishing.

It’s the same logic that leads lefties to argue that the only reason anyone opposes them is Russian propaganda.

We had to offer an alternative.  The revolutions happening and our contemporaneous efforts to promote democracy aren't a coincidence.

I'm not trying to take any credit away from the Ukrainian people, but I'm also not an idiot.  There is an obvious pattern to US influence.

Eastern European people didn't pull it off for 80 years, a cold and often hot war was fought on their behalf.  They didn't throw off the chains of soviet oppression, They tried a couple times, got promptly crushed.  The west won the cold war and allowed Eastern Europe to be free.

The same would have happened in modern Ukraine without the west, it happened in every place under Russian influence where we didn't get involved.  We have direct modern examples of both scenarios.  

I agree ideology drives this conversation, it's kinda interesting.

Not at all. Where'd you get that idea? Russian sources? Here's Daniel Fried who had Victoria Nuland's job at the time:

"We didn’t understand what was going to happen with the Orange Revolution. Like, no idea. Putin thought we did. He thought we were the puppet masters. Like man, we are not that good. I even told Russian television once, when they were accusing me personally of being the “gray cardinal” of the color revolutions, I said: “I wish. How come you see America with a massive budget being unable to do anything much, to stop the political deterioration and security deterioration in Iraq, and you think, on no budget at all, we can overthrow Moscow-supported governments in Kiev and Tbilisi? Are you kidding me?” But they really thought we were doing it."

(at 30:30)

You think this is from handing out cookies? Or even hundred dollar bills?

I think it was encouraged by years of social, financial and political (and military) influence.  Encouraged, not caused.  The cookies thing was meant to be humorous.    

Was it encouraged by EU/US trade and financial aid?  Absolutely.  Was there an effort to bring Ukraine into the European or western circle..yes, without question.  Did that piss putin off? I'm guessing here but yeah I think there is ample evidence that he was unhappy about it.

This isn't hard.  Why is this idea totally unacceptable?  The evidence is clear, it's literally the history of modern international relations.  It's happening right now in Asia, it's an identical process and there isn't any controversy about US or Chinese influence or how its used in other countries.

It's bizarre.   I clearly support Ukraine, but there is something like a psychological pathology that prevents some people from acknowledging our role in these events.  Why?

If anything it makes a stronger argument for our responsibility to Ukraine.  I don't know if you guys are paying attention but we are in the process of walking away from Ukraine.  They are not going to win without support.  Wouldn't an acknowledgment of our role in this conflict encourage more support from the west?  Don't we have a moral obligation?

He ignores the fact that literally everything the US ever imported from Ukr is something that is plentifully produced here.

We imported a billion dollars worth of unneeded goods yearly. Not a.lot in the grand scheme of things but when you're the poorest country in Europe .....

The rest of what you said is not a bad analysis, IMO. But you put a little too much weight on our ability to influence their behavior or prevent the war.

That's an aspect of economic influence sure.  But just part of the soft power game that we and China are very good at using.  

It's horrifyingly ironic that we all recognize organized influence in our domestic politics and don't realize that it's the same process we've been using overseas for decades.

We took the well oiled machinery of international influence and turned it inward.

If we could push Russia's buttons, they would be a liberal democracy by now. We tried, ya know Strobe Talbott said in the Clinton/Yeltsin years that U.S. strategy should:
“be intended to make sure the rickety, leaky, oversized, cannon-laden Good Ship Russia, with its stinking bilge, its erratic, autocratic captain, and its semi-mutinous crew… has a clearly visible point on the horizon to steer by. That beacon is the United States, itself”

It all makes sense when you come to the conclusion that the goal is not to control a country but to perpetuate continuous war.  
Central bankers profit more in times of war than in times of peace.  

I don't think we've tried to influence Russia directly, at least recently.  Probably considered too dangerous or not likely to succeed.  We seem to be into containment these days

There is a profiteering aspect to conflict but I don't think that was the goal.  Maybe it was something innocent like democracy, likely it was an effort to diminish Russian influence in the world.

If we happen to sell lots of missiles along the way, I don't think it keeps congress awake at night.

XD, this was generally my conclusion of your long post. I'm not going to spend any time to pick at the edges of what you stated cause a lot of it is accurate (from my memory reading it 5 minutes after I woke up 3 hours ago), but I think you very much understated the wants, roles, and determination of the Ukrainian people. Also, we didn't need to sell western society to Ukraine to make them realize it. Bongino has his "beachball of freedom theory", where you can try and hold the ball underwater, but eventually it will shoot towards freedom. I think that's applicable to the Ukrainian people. Also, when a cow is stuck in a muddy barren pasture, she doesn't need the farmer to lead her to the green pasture across the road, she will see it and long for it naturally.

It's something that can't be limited to just one goal. Different entities have different goals, and I think Ukraine (post 2/24/22 support) was a merging of political, strategic, and moral goals. Right now, there is a dissolution of this because one leg (the political who's first obligation is ALWAYS the next election) isn't seeing a benefit, and this is both sides. I think the vast majority of support from the politicians from BOTH sides in the beginning was because they saw this would help them in the next election, and right now I think both sides think withholding aid can be used to benefit them come Nov 2024.

Edit: It is a gross way to conduct foreign policy when our main adversaries are dictators with decades of power (Xi, Putin, Rocket man, the Mullahs)

I can't disagree with any of that.  But there has to be a gate in the fence, and that gate has to be open, in order for the cow to get there.

Are we to assume the Ukrainian people didn't want freedom prior to US involvement?  It happened when it happened due to a confluence of factors.  

My objections aren't with the US or Ukrainians wanting freedom. It's the execution I have issue with.  We facilitated and encouraged a natural longing for a greener pasture, then stood and watched as the cow got hit by a cement truck trying to get to that pasture.  We are the farmer, we know about cement trucks, didn't we have a responsibility to either leave the cow in her pasture or make sure she got to the greener one?

I get the impression that we just really don't like that cement truck.  

To torture the metaphor.

You're not wrong there either.  Ukraine is looking kinda fucked.

I can post a picture tonight of a mangled gate sitting by the road of my neighbors with a "free for scrap" sign on it, admittedly it was horses and not cows. But to continue torturing this metaphor, if the animal sees starvation in their current pasture, they will try and knock down the barriers (gate) and brave the risk (cement truck) for a chance at living. That's natural, it doesn't need encouragement.

Boy we are really  

I think we are both in the "nuance" area that I spoke about in another post. It's most likely where the truth is. I think we have a difference in how much weight we give different factors.

US foreign policy is looking kinda fucked (when it's based on a 2 year next election timeframe).

I grew up on a horse farm, I believe you.

But we did play some role, it didn't happen in the middle of the night when we were sleeping.  We put a 900 lb round bale in the other pasture.

fair enough. Nuanced discussions in GD are rare.

Good find

Add this to your list of lies, Ukraine was not the poorest country in Europe in 2014 whether you measure by GDP or GDP per capita.

It will likely be for 2023 though, but that may have something to do with you know, the whole invasion thing.

It's embarrassing to have our worthless politicians repeat over and over that we'll not abandon our allies, then guess what..."fuck you guys, have fun killing Russians on your own". Even worse is that we're not going to fuck them over to do anything good here...we're not doing it to reallocate money to securing the border, fixing the economy, etc, we're doing it because the politicians want to benefit themselves.

After decades of Russians fu*king the cow I'm sure it wants to run to a better place.

look out.  We've agreed twice in this thread.

I think we need to see other people.

I'd like to know how much influence the threat of BRICS had to do with supporting Ukraine up to present day and how it might play out in the future.

Wtf is this 2014 shit? Goalpost moving much. Go back that far they were just ahead of Moldova.

It has been the poorest country since 2018
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/what-is-wrong-with-the-ukrainian-economy/

It continues to this day. It IS the poorest country in Europe.
Attached File

Absolutely not

What the fuck is this 2014 shit? Look at the thread title and try to keep up with the discussion. It's embarrassing this has to be explained to you. Yeah, it's the poorest country today. I wonder why that is?
It wasn't the poorest country in 2014, then it started to trend that way. What happened in 2014? What continued to happen for the following 8 years that might effect the economy?

Jesus. Fucking. Christ.

Oh let's see they went from numbern2 poorest to number one in 4 years because muh  Crimea?

They were trending downward years before 2018. Care to post anything but your silly assed  emotional SJW  shit that says they were a thriving EU country before the meanies took away Crimea?

Now who's moving the goalposts? I didn't say they were thriving (they're also not in the EU you ignoramus). I said they weren't the poorest country in Europe by any metric in 2014, which is the era this thread is discussing. The fact they deteriorated after being invaded (you know, Crimea and eastern Ukraine being pretty important to the Ukrainian economy and all) is not surprising in the least.

Silly assed SJW? Lol. This is the 3rd lie I've caught you in.

I Remember when he claimed the USA used primarily rocket artillery and that we hadn’t hit the doubling of 155mm production and then shared an article showing it had

Man, I had hopes this was a budding bromance!!

Hope restored!

EJECT EJECT EJECT

Yeah. He's...special.

Nobody is sayin' no

Now he's just being a putin that won't let go, and I hear cement trucks....



That's right.....we're on to mixed metaphors now!