[ARCHIVED THREAD] - The housing boom is ending... (Page 3 of 5)
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Quoted: If you are in a house for the rest of your life why care what it's valued at? Like owning a stock it's value isn't really that important until you sell it. If it's value goes down temporarily as long as you don't sell you aren't out anything. This only really matters if you are flipping houses. I don't see any big bubble bursting on housing prices though. Some specific areas of the country you could see that, but with overall inflation, materials costs, labor costs, supply issues, etc there is strong support for housing prices to not see dramatic value drops in the near future. You are right but that only holds true if you stay in the same house for the rest of your life which is very uncommon these days as compared to 50 years ago. |
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Quoted: It's sad people care so much one way or the other. Unless your property is income-producing and you happen to also have a house on it, your biggest asset should be your investment account, not your house. Or if you're just starting out in the workforce you should at least be working towards the day when your home equity is just a small percentage of your net worth. This guy knows what's up. Its easy to identify House poors. If they believe their property value going up is a good thing, that tends to show who has bitten off too much mortgage than they can chew, as arbitrary "inflated value" has been assigned to justify the rise in their property taxes. I fight against my assesment value every year. No I do not believe a place I bought outright 6 years ago is "worth" double/triple what I paid for it. No I will not be paying more for the town to piss away like drunk sailors in a brothel. Not my problem about Muh demandz Muh desirabilityz or added value from new construction. Whack the new houses with ny level property taxes if you must. Maybe sell the land you retards cling to as "parks" that aren't even used, that cost money to maintain. Stop putting in high maintenance medians in all the roads that require upkeep and prevent left turns so you have to go a 1/4 mile past your destination, make a U turn to get to where you're going like they do back home in jersey. I swear the retards that designed the roads here are from jersey. Pants on head retarded. Can't make a fucking left turn, but we can have Augustine grass with irrigation, goofy ass plants, trees etc that requires weekly trimming... don't forget the palms that have fronds that need trimming... Smart. Follows the same mindset as the retards that voted for it. But Muh appearancez doh!  How's the car insurance premiums skyrocketing look to you as traffic backs up to get into the u turn lane and someone gets rear ended in the shared fast lane/u turn lane? Or someone goes to swerve around that and broad sides someone in the middle/right lane? Or better/worse yet, granny tries to make a left/u turn, can't see around the dumb shit that's been planted, pulls out and gets the front end taken off the Buick/cadillac by someone in the fast lane?Who cares about logic and efficient roads... we've got property owners to bleed for more dumb shit! Muh roadz! They suck and you dipshits gladly fund it. But as long as it looks nice, I guess...Bitches about property taxes going up, and car insurance going up. Can't see the pants on head retarded roads the developers created are what's causing both to go up won't fight assesment and starve the beast. Won't dare to let the grass get above 4 inches, or do anything to plummet/stagnate assessed value. Priorities. Florida burbz are pants on head retarded. I especially crack up seeing the-Don't NY my Florida and Fuck Joe Biden flags/banners/bumper stickers. And the ones that sport em ironically support NYing their Florida for that sweet arbitrary property valuez doh Take a hit on property value going up? Hell no! They've got 200k+ outstanding on principle of a mortgage don't you know! How dare you imply suggest knee capping their only means to get out from under it breaking even/"making" a "profit" off of 4 walls, a roof, a place to rest their head, fill their gut, wash their ass... There's local pork to pay for, wasteful spending that needs tax $, pants on head retarded roads to overhaul for Muh looks > function/efficiency to maintain flow. Don't forget about Muh childrenz and the vacant parks that need upkeep... How dare you propose a profitable enterprise like an outdoor shooting range, dirt bike/ATV track/trail! Don't you know there's Muh noise ordinancez and that will attract the riff raff! While the "damn kids" all get fat soft and lazy cooped up inside living on video games, social media, etc... But we need that 5+/- acres for a well groomed, tax payer funded park doh. For the childrenz. Which they won't use. Because. Video games. Much logic. Very wise use of tax payer money. Don't ny Muh Florida now... Proceeds to do exactly as ny does. But at least has shit to show for it. Literally. Congested but nice looking roads. Making a 12 mile drive 45 minutes+ Vacant parks. Literally. Shit. To. Show. For. It. Don't forget those socialized services too! Just like ny has! It's too much to make a trip to the dump once a week. Got brodozers everywhere. So can't say but I'm not hauling garbage in the trunk of Muh econobox! Need that herby curby and wastepro garbage trucks to add more fuckery to impede the flow of traffic. Can't have a septic system. Need to be on the sewer. How dare you be independent and keep up maintenance of your own septic system... It's "better" to have the town install a grinder/pump that shits the bed once a month like clock work, and hold a monopoly on that, so you're dependent upon the towns utilities crew to shut the alarm off and fix it. How dare you drill a well and not be on the towns treated water?! But don't ny Muh Florida doh. I hate suburbia. If it weren't for the beer aids plandemic putting a monkey wrench in business, I'd be on 100+ acres in Okeechobee right now laughing in backyard hunting/shooting and ripping around on 2 strokes. But noooo... Did the right thing, made sure my guys were paid. Didn't apply for the free shit army funny money. Stuck in dah burbz surrounded by retards who are anxious to hear their property values went up 100k this past year on the granite/stucco false facade mcmansion, so the tax man can piss it away in "improvements"  Improvements my ass. Bitch about ghettos and trailer parks. Your fucking roads look like demolition derbies at a podunk County Fair but with high maintenance tropical shrubbery/trees/grass medians. Maybe it wouldn't hurt to have pothole ridden dirt roads... at least then the collisions would go down as the average non driving fuck doing 50+ down a residential street won't be able to finger fuck a cell phone. At least then maybe you'd be able to take a left turn without having to go a 1/4 mile past your desired destination to make a U turn across 2-3 lanes into the right lane...risking being T-boned, rear ended, front end tore off by a vaping flat brimmed 350Z/miata/bmw in the fast lane. Seems to work in Vero/Lakewood Park and out west. Shit. If the roads aren't to your liking there... just buy a snow plow and plow the roads you travel smooth. Don't need the tax man for something you can do yourself... but that would imply logic common sense and taking initative... Can't do that, that's the tax man's roads. Only he can hold a monopoly on that sort of thing... go be independent and capable somewhere else. There's dumb shit to waste tax payers money on. For appearances. To justify increased assigned/assessed value. Urban sprawl needs to stop. It attracts too many petty tyrants, busy bodies, dependent lemmings reliant on a tax payer funded adult in the room to maintain life as they know it, in exchange for higher property taxes/valuez so the house poors can get out from under a big mortgage. Pro-tip. Don't move to where people vacation and retire. Especially if you grew up with backyard hunting/shooting/dirt bike/quad/field cars/trail trucks/jeeps. Dah burbz ain't the bastions of conservatism as was projected here. Doing the exact same dumb shit liberal cityiots did to upstate ny. But don't ny Muh Florida doh. |
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Quoted: Boise, believe it or not, is the town that everyone watches as being the hottest market in America. Now that markets are stabilizing, and homes are staying on the market longer and longer, what's next? Lots of people will be stuck in houses that will be worth substantially less than they paid for them. Balloon goes *pop*. I think no pop. Stop and hold. Inflation from Biden policies and inflation from Covid will stabilize it more or less where it is rather than a slide back or pop. I say this as a person who wants to see a slide back. |
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Quoted: Everyone will call code compliance on you for ruining their home values. You know it, I know, even thr dogs know it. One actually did 2 summers ago They don't live across the street anymore.  The look on their face when the code enforcer found more violations in that busy bodies back yard, and per the ordinance 1 unregistered visible vehicle in disrepair bit them in the ass. When it comes to picking and winning battles. Learn the codes/ordinance. Those that go looking for an adult in the room to dictate life to others, often are more guilty than the "offensive" party. Dude had a motor home in the back yard, a van covered with a tarp used as a shed and a boat and trailer with expired registration.But me having a project truck in the driveway was "unsightly" I've done this song and dance before. They're lucky there's no dirt oval race tracks near by. Or it'd have been setting dwell and hot valve lash at 2am on race car. Instead, they ate the fine, lost that one, got ass hurt and sold. Busy body-0 Neighborhood-1 They were miserable fucks too. They'd call the cops on the kids shooting fireworks off in the weeks leading up to the 4th of July and days after. Like really? Go to ny if you don't want to hear mortars and bottle rockets. That's illegal there. |
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Quoted: One actually did 2 summers ago They don't live across the street anymore. The look on their face when the code enforcer found more violations in that busy bodies back yard, and per the ordinance 1 unregistered visible vehicle in disrepair bit them in the ass. Quoted: Quoted: Everyone will call code compliance on you for ruining their home values. You know it, I know, even thr dogs know it. One actually did 2 summers ago They don't live across the street anymore. The look on their face when the code enforcer found more violations in that busy bodies back yard, and per the ordinance 1 unregistered visible vehicle in disrepair bit them in the ass. The same thing happened to my friend's neighbor in NY. She called code enforcement on my friend and when the inspector showed up to look around he noticed the caller's inground pool had numerous violations and wrote her up. |
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I get these in my email. You can duckduck the headlines to find the full articles. Barron's Millennials will drive home prices up for years to come Housing is hot, but who’s driving the frenzy? Millennials. Yes, despite more than a decade of depressing anecdotes about parental-basement living and too many roommates, this group now leads the U.S. housing boom. This is no flash in the pan: Millennials will probably stoke housing demand for years. The Wall Street Journal As boomers downsize, competition grows for simpler—but not always smaller—homes Older buyers seeking smaller or easier-to-maintain homes are crashing into younger buyers in a housing market where the competition is fierce. (Subscription may be required.) MarketWatch ‘More sellers are cutting their list price.’ Here’s exactly what economists and analysts think will happen to home prices in the next few months Mortgage rates still remain near record lows — some 15-year rates are near 2% and some 30-year rates are below 3%, as you can see here — but many potential buyers, worried about the recent rise of home prices, aren’t sure if they should dip their toes into the housing market. So we asked economists and financial pros what they expected to happen to the housing market through the end of this year. Barron's Not addressed in the Fed meeting? Surging housing costs. No news is usually good news, especially for financial markets when the subject is the Federal Reserve. So the markets’ reaction was positive to the central bank’s well-telegraphed decision Wednesday to reduce the pace of its securities purchases, with the major stock market indices ending at records. Fortune The historic run on home prices is set to wind down in 2022 Instead of creating a housing bust, the pandemic helped spur one of the most competitive—and tight—housing markets in recorded U.S. history. Between August 2020 and August 2021, home prices soared a record 19.9%—dwarfing the previous biggest 12-month price jump (14.1%), which came in the period leading up to the 2008 meltdown. CNBC Mortgage rates fell slightly, but weekly refinance demand couldn’t recover A slight reprieve from rising mortgage rates did nothing to invigorate mortgage demand. Total mortgage application volume fell 3.3% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. Jacksonville Daily Record Economist: Home price increases unsustainable While home prices have risen substantially over the past year, National Association of Home Builders economist Robert Dietz said relief is on the way for buyers. |
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Quoted: I understand what I owe. Why would I default on my loan of the “value” dropped $200k? Is the housing market dropping indicative of an overall decline in the economy, therefore it drops even more and over and over? I don’t understand the “omg the housing market is slowing everyone will lose their houses” concept. If my “zestimate” drops to $200k I’ll still pay the loan I took out when I bought the house. Lots of people use their houses as an ATM. |
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Quoted: The "boom" has been camouflaged by rampant inflation. Exactly. The housing market could be contracting and prices can still be going up 5%. If real inflation is 10% then the market could be falling and you would never know. It not the house that became more valuable, it's your money that became less valuable |
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Quoted: Depends on local market. There is still a housing shortage here. Homes typically sell in a day or two for over asking. There is a housing shortage in and around every major metro in the country. We reduced the zoning capacity of most metros while greatly slowed construction over the past decades and it is coming up to bite us in the ass now. Census data is pretty clear that people are leaving rural areas for major metros, and the housing capacity is not there to support it. The continuation of the housing boom is IMO going to be very dependent on these factors. Location location location. |
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Things may be slowing down, but prices aren’t coming down substantially unless there is a major economic crash and a period of deflation. Inflation is running rampant right now and the cost to build new homes is skyrocketing. As long as there is a shortage of overall homes and inflation keeps pushing material and labor prices on new builds higher, existing home prices will remain high. It’s a pretty big gamble during an inflationary period to “wait until prices come down.” If things keep going the way they are, gas will be $8 a gallon, minimum wage will be $25 an hour and a small starter home will be going for $300k. |
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Quoted: Eh, maybe. But it normally slows down this time of year. If its still slowing in March - June, then we can talk about a housing market bubble bursting |
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Quoted: Things may be slowing down, but prices aren't coming down substantially unless there is a major economic crash and a period of deflation. Inflation is running rampant right now and the cost to build new homes is skyrocketing. As long as there is a shortage of overall homes and inflation keeps pushing material and labor prices on new builds higher, existing home prices will remain high. It's a pretty big gamble during an inflationary period to "wait until prices come down." If things keep going the way they are, gas will be $8 a gallon, minimum wage will be $25 an hour and a small starter home will be going for $300k. shitjobs are starting at $18/hr or more. |
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Home sales are cyclic. Some years they're up, and some years they're way down. We're putting our home here in Boise up for sale in the Spring and moving into something bigger in the late Summer. Some of the talking heads here in the Treasure Valley say the crazy prices are unsustainable, and others are saying otherwise. Our real estate agent thinks prices will decrease 5% or so this Winter. Yes the market has slowed down, yet one of my co-workers sold his 4 bedroom home in Meridian five hours after it was listed for $600,000.00 just a few weeks ago. I think it was about four years old with wood floors, granite countertops, etc. and a very nice looking place. Hard to say, though. I don't believe the same circumstances (mainly bad lending practices, and people "flipping" houses to make a quick buck) exist today that led to the 2008 housing market crash but I'm no economist, and it seems like there's always some factor that leads to the unforeseen "crash" that catches most everyone by surprise. My mom was in real estate during the 1970s (and the OPEC "oil embargo"). IIRC, the prices of homes went way up then, and they never came back down after that. |
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Boise's market is weird and I think very much propped up by west coast buyers moving in. That surged over the past year with covid, whether or not it keeps up will determine Boise's market over the next few years. We are moving from the SLC area into Boise and just closed on a house there earlier this month. We saw lots of homes that were a decade old, cramped and cluttered, and the owners were asking a silly amount for them. They also sat on the market for 3+months. Nice, new homes were selling overnight. Whatever is currently happening in the market is almost certainly seasonal change, even though the market may cool over the next few years as a whole. |
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Quoted: They did the same thing to Tacogrande Quoted: Quoted: 2008 crash was before I was in the housing market. I understand they were giving loans that people could not afford. Did the defaults on those loans cause the crash? I don't see the loans as the issue this time around, what does the value of your home matter compared to your ability to repay? I owe $300k if my house is worth 500 or 900, right? Or is it a snowball of housing crashes, jobs decline, income declines and it compounds? They did the same thing to Tacogrande |
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Quoted: 2008 crash was before I was in the housing market. I understand they were giving loans that people could not afford. Did the defaults on those loans cause the crash? I don’t see the loans as the issue this time around, what does the value of your home matter compared to your ability to repay? I owe $300k if my house is worth 500 or 900, right? Or is it a snowball of housing crashes, jobs decline, income declines and it compounds? If you can indefinitely find income to make the payment, no other expenses pop up make you house poor, plan to never move, and can afford to replace shit as it breaks, then the value of the house is completely irrelevant outside of taxes. Also, if the house is paid off or you have a wad if cash in a liquid account. The rub is that only really applies to retirees, and you don't know what the future holds. If the value of the house drops to 150k and you owe 300k, you still owe 300k. Only a problem if you sell or don't have 150k laying around. |
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It's not slowing down around me here in Utah. I'm in the northern end of Utah County, just south of Salt Lake County, an area called the Silicon Slopes for all of the Tech companies moving in. Just about everything that comes on the market in my area is under contract in a few days. These sold as soon as the signs went up. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2753-S-Ivy-Ln-Saratoga-Springs-UT-84045/122540175_zpid/ https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2251-S-Browning-Dr-W-Saratoga-Springs-UT-84045/2072545775_zpid/ I bought my place 18 months ago for $550k. It would easily sell at $825k right now. "Experts" are expecting Utah prices to go up another 10% next year. If you think that's high just take a look at prices in southern California. 50-60 year old 1400 square foot homes go for near a million. |
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Quoted: Is this the company that sold a bunch of houses at a loss because they believed their own prices? Quoted: Is this the company that sold a bunch of houses at a loss because they believed their own prices? Their numbers are close or even low here. Listed our last house almost 20k under “zestimate” and sold right at it. Current neighbor listed 20k under and went for 90k over. Our market is still crazy. Quoted: Why? And that’s what I’m not getting. The bank doesn’t come and ask for the cash I’m upside down. As long as I don’t lose my job and refuse to get another one, why would I get pissed off, ruin my credit and be homeless? |
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Quoted: 2008 crash was before I was in the housing market. I understand they were giving loans that people could not afford. Did the defaults on those loans cause the crash? I don’t see the loans as the issue this time around, what does the value of your home matter compared to your ability to repay? I owe $300k if my house is worth 500 or 900, right? Or is it a snowball of housing crashes, jobs decline, income declines and it compounds? I can see being "upside down" as a problem if someone must move across country for a job or other compelling reason. |
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Quoted: It was a snowball of factors. I read a paper a few years ago arguing that high gas prices actually caused a lot of people to default on their loans. You had a lot of people that didn't have fixed rate, fully amortizing loans. They had 5 year adjustable rate mortgages. Inventory started hitting the market at fire sale rates. At the same time, the banks were losing their ass on both mortgage backed securities and the insurance sold on those securities. Of all those factors, some of them still remain. Loans are harder to get and the loan products are better, but we still have mortgage backed securities, and they are still insured. ETA: Between 2008 and 2009 almost 9 million people lost their jobs. They couldn't pay their notes. At the same time, mortgage rates had been rising since 2006, which meant that those ARMs were getting more expensive. So when the next job crunch comes, instead of oweing $150,000 on a $90,000 house, people will be defaulting on $300,000 houses on which they owe $350,000 or more, right? After those houses sat around depreciating, they finally sell to someone who can afford the depreciated prices. What'll that do to the economy? |
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Quoted: Want to hear crazy? I paid 430 in August, 2020. Zillow has mine at 680-740. But where do you go? We are trapped because a shitbox will cost 350 and all your equity goes to over priced trash. We trapped  I just closed on a 40 ft toy hauler. We may sell out and live on the road till the crash happens. ETA, if you could move my place and the ten acres it sits on to MT I’d imagine it’d be worth 4-5 million. Location location location 
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That being said, it seems highly unlikely that the Boise real estate market will crash in 2022. After all, a housing “crash” occurs when home prices drop sharply, often due to a surplus of supply and/or a sudden drop in demand. source So what will Sloppy Joe do to cause home prices to crash? THAT is what I worry about. |
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Quoted: 2008 crash was before I was in the housing market. I understand they were giving loans that people could not afford. Did the defaults on those loans cause the crash? I don't see the loans as the issue this time around, what does the value of your home matter compared to your ability to repay? I owe $300k if my house is worth 500 or 900, right? Or is it a snowball of housing crashes, jobs decline, income declines and it compounds? With current housing prices a lot of people are stretching themselves thin with little discretionary. When massive inflation hits everything else becomes expensive. If it comes down to food on the table, the lights and power on, gas in the cars to get to and from work - or - paying a high mortgage (and taxes to match), which do you think will go first? |
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Quoted: A good paying Job. They got one. Quoted: Quoted: 3 houses in my neighborhood have been for sale for a while now. Things are definitely slowing down. Someone from North Carolina actually just moved up the street. I kinda want to ask them if they were drunk and accidentally purchased a house in CT . No idea why anyone would want to move up from the South to this shitty state.A good paying Job. They got one. And a huge increase to their cost of living. Not worth it. BTDT, the NE is (mostly) a shithole. |
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Quoted: I think no pop. Stop and hold. Inflation from Biden policies and inflation from Covid will stabilize it more or less where it is rather than a slide back or pop. I say this as a person who wants to see a slide back. If incomes rise to the same level as inflation, that would happen. Instead, we will continue to experience stagflation and I think we’ll eventually see lots of defaults as a result. |
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Quoted: It may drop but it will be propped up till interest rates rise. Thats when folks who overbought will find out that variable rates are bad and houses will be plentiful How many people who've bought recently signed up for a variable rate mortgage, do you think? This isn't 2008. |
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Quoted: And that’s what I’m not getting. The bank doesn’t come and ask for the cash I’m upside down. As long as I don’t lose my job and refuse to get another one, why would I get pissed off, ruin my credit and be homeless? Correct. The bank doesn't care if you paid a million for a property worth $100k if you can make the payments. The funny thing is, in a worst case scenario, the bank is more willing to give someone leeway in a near default situation because they don't want to get saddled with that underwater property. |
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The banks will do whatever is necessary not to foreclose. Can't have those stats on the quarterly earnings reports. It's ironic that in this day and age of 87% of service workers staying home because they have free money coming in, that people still have an instinctual fear of the bank calling the loan like it's the great depression. Even during the 2008 crisis we saw more people mailing keys to the bank because they were butthurt about their loss of equity than actually being kicked out by the sheriff. Things will still suck, but those fixed rate mortgages aren't going to be the straw that breaks peoples' backs. It will be this weird dynamic of people living in 4,000 square foot mcmansions being on all sorts of food subsidies and charity programs. |
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Quoted: Lots of people use their houses as an ATM. Quoted: Quoted: I understand what I owe. Why would I default on my loan of the “value” dropped $200k? Is the housing market dropping indicative of an overall decline in the economy, therefore it drops even more and over and over? I don’t understand the “omg the housing market is slowing everyone will lose their houses” concept. If my “zestimate” drops to $200k I’ll still pay the loan I took out when I bought the house. Lots of people use their houses as an ATM. Exactly. Other than government spending, tens of millions cashing out on their home equity is the #1 reason why the economy has ‘looked’ so good these last 6 or so years. Watch what happens when that cash flow stops |
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Quoted: I can see being "upside down" as a problem if someone must move across country for a job or other compelling reason. But, with lots of inflation having the bank holding more than the "value" of the house in a loan well let the inflation reduce it for you to the maximum extent as each one of those 'dollars' becomes easier and easier for you to pay off because they are worth less. |
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Quoted: I think people will begin to fear the rise in interest rates soon. Will make people more willing to pay higher prices in the short term. That's already happening in the market right now. The Fed said months ago that they were going to raise the prime rate by %0.25 no earlier than 4th quarter of 2022. |