[ARCHIVED THREAD] - The housing boom is ending... (Page 5 of 5)
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Quoted: LOL two more weeks? Lol. This time !! Big pop! Yes just keep waiting lol. 1. Information is to abundant. The market adjusts to damn quick. 2. To many people waiting for it balancing the market. There isn’t an army of brokers looking for anything to sell and resell. 3. PMI funds actual market bust insurance that is funded. Banks will not go running for the hills if prices go slightly down. 4. People qualifying for these loans are very qualified. No teaser rates and if you don’t want a big down payment you have to pay EXTRA (PMI) at the beginning of the loan. That said I bought this for 260,000 in sept/ 2020!  
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I hear that. Bought just over a decade ago for under $150 - current values around here are pushing $700. It's beyond insane in some markets. |
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Quoted: Boise, believe it or not, is the town that everyone watches as being the hottest market in America. Now that markets are stabilizing, and homes are staying on the market longer and longer, what's next? Lots of people will be stuck in houses that will be worth substantially less than they paid for them. Balloon goes *pop*. I’ve got a sister in Boise and another sister that fled Nampa for Homedale. I don’t feel sorry for the Californians that brought their ridiculously unsustainable retirements with them and bought a house at a price they inflated by infesting a nice town like Boise with their way of thinking. I do feel sorry for everyone else. |
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Houses right now are only overpriced if you're just entering the market. If you have skin in the game it's just silly (ridiculous?) numbers. I'm looking at a $875k property this week and our realtor puts my current place for $775k. I bought it 6 years ago for $380k and owe $170k. I figure if I "overpay" for the current place it won't really matter much, as whoever buys my current spot is "overpaying" also. Pretty much a wash as I'm pushing over equity. As a result I would be in a new construction with epic ocean views at about 400' above sea level, with thousands of acres of forest land behind me with a decent sized waterfall about 100 yards out. If the price trends like it has historically, it'll be worth a good chunk more in 10 years and beyond. If it drops in value significantly and doesn't regain ground in the coming years, our country is likely in a really bad spot and I'll appreciate where we are at.
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| I've been in RE for 30+ years. Never seen anything like this. This all depends on inflation. There is wage inflation, but in the lower-income ranks. There might be higher inflation in the higher incomes, but the only people that NEED to buy a house are those that are renting. They are not sufficient in numbers to drive their wages up by way of "need to make more to buy." That said, I don't know how many people are struggling to pay mortgages and have near no savings right now. From what I have read (yup, everything these days is bull shit), the number of mortgage holders below water is very, very low. That said, I would REALLY like to buy a house so I have no bias to the "strong market going forward" argument. |
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Quoted: 3 houses in my neighborhood have been for sale for a while now. Things are definitely slowing down. Someone from North Carolina actually just moved up the street. I kinda want to ask them if they were drunk and accidentally purchased a house in CT . No idea why anyone would want to move up from the South to this shitty state.You'd think the cold of New England would keep the assholes out. But it does not. It almost seems to lure them in 
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This bubble is much more widespread than the previous one, but it too will pop - they all do. Prices are ludicrous, people are paying half a mil or more for 50+ year old shacks on a postage stamp sized lot. Cannot possibly end well. Has it peaked? Don't know, we are in the largest psyop in the history of man and there is a collective mass insanity among many people. I can draw on experience from the last bubble which I wrote a white paper on around 2004. That's when it started to pop, even though some parts of the country were still in a frenzy in 2006-7. In that instance, it started in the high end with increasing inventory and declining sales. The high end is quite a bit higher now, so you might have to track properties in LA or Manhattan to see if people are selling for less than they bought 3-4 years ago. I've read a few stories of celebrities doing exactly that but don't know how widespread it is. I will predict that you will have no problem finding properties for half what theyre selling for today before this decade ends - possibly before 2025. The caveats are that is the cash price and if I'm wrong then we will be in a Weimar like descent into hell and no one will be talking about housing anyway. |
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Quoted: When the interest rates go up, then it will slow. 4%......it will really fall. 5%......it will hugely fall 6%+....God help those that own RE that need to sell A tremendous amount of RE appreciation is a result of falling interest rates over the past 30 years. |
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Let me do the mortgage payment math at different interest rates. A $400,000 mortgage at 3.00% for 30 years without taxes, ect is $1,682 A $400,000 mortgage at 4.00% for 30 years without taxes, ect is $1,903 A $400,000 mortgage at 5.00% for 30 years without taxes, ect is $2,138 A $400,000 mortgage at 8.00% for 30 years without taxes, ect is $2,916 ______________________________________________________________ So, at 5% with a $1,682 monthly payment, one could afford a $314,671 mortgage. That's a 21% decrease  |
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Quoted: 2008 crash was before I was in the housing market. I understand they were giving loans that people could not afford. Did the defaults on those loans cause the crash? I don’t see the loans as the issue this time around, what does the value of your home matter compared to your ability to repay? I owe $300k if my house is worth 500 or 900, right? Or is it a snowball of housing crashes, jobs decline, income declines and it compounds? Because the affects of a country that is almost solely based on service when only 1 market fails causes a cascade into other parts of the economy. People see they owe more than its worth they do two things. They default on purpose or they stop spending money altogether elsewhere thinking the economy is bad. If the majority of people "think" the economy is bad, it will get bad. The economy is just as much confidence driven as it is supply/demand driven. And you get two fold right now because we have such a lack of supply in the system sucking up discretionary funds for other things. Economics is extremely complex and you cant just look at one thing to make a decision if it is good or bad. |
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Quoted: Back in 2008, a lot of houses were owned by speculators, “flippers”. I don’t get the sense that it’s the same today, but actual comparisons would be interesting. Loans never got as Ninja. A lot of the flipping that could be done for easy profit is already done. Its definitely still out there but the salad days are done in most parts. Especially with the cost of materials. |
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The house I bought this summer has appreciated $112,000 since we purchased. It was an “as-is” deal that needs updating but the bones are good. This house finishes are just stuck in the 1990’s. No biggie to me because I can do 95% of the work. If I update it over a couple years it will be worth about $1.1-1.2M. Complete the addition that already has a poured foundation and I’ll be looking at $1.6-1.7M. It was relative though because we sold our house in the ‘burbs for the 2nd highest price our neighborhood had seen, ever (to that point) to move to God’s Country. I see Glacier National Park from my living room and decks. Now to get rid of the 150LB cat that’s been hanging around the past couple weeks… |
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Quoted: Lol. This time !! Big pop! Yes just keep waiting lol. 1. Information is to abundant. The market adjusts to damn quick. 2. To many people waiting for it balancing the market. There isn’t an army of brokers looking for anything to sell and resell. 3. PMI funds actual market bust insurance that is funded. Banks will not go running for the hills if prices go slightly down. 4. People qualifying for these loans are very qualified. No teaser rates and if you don’t want a big down payment you have to pay EXTRA (PMI) at the beginning of the loan. That said I bought this for 260,000 in sept/ 2020! https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/446393/DCF922B3-2B6F-48AB-9E9D-3236CE1EA00B-2183021.jpg That's a darn expensive tree, what kind is it ? |
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Quoted: Houses right now are only overpriced if you're just entering the market. If you have skin in the game it's just silly (ridiculous?) numbers. I'm looking at a $875k property this week and our realtor puts my current place for $775k. I bought it 6 years ago for $380k and owe $170k. I figure if I "overpay" for the current place it won't really matter much, as whoever buys my current spot is "overpaying" also. Pretty much a wash as I'm pushing over equity. As a result I would be in a new construction with epic ocean views at about 400' above sea level, with thousands of acres of forest land behind me with a decent sized waterfall about 100 yards out. If the price trends like it has historically, it'll be worth a good chunk more in 10 years and beyond. If it drops in value significantly and doesn't regain ground in the coming years, our country is likely in a really bad spot and I'll appreciate where we are at. Is it in Oregon though? Hard pass. |
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Quoted: Lol. This time !! Big pop! Yes just keep waiting lol. 1. Information is to abundant. The market adjusts to damn quick. 2. To many people waiting for it balancing the market. There isn’t an army of brokers looking for anything to sell and resell. 3. PMI funds actual market bust insurance that is funded. Banks will not go running for the hills if prices go slightly down. 4. People qualifying for these loans are very qualified. No teaser rates and if you don’t want a big down payment you have to pay EXTRA (PMI) at the beginning of the loan. That said I bought this for 260,000 in sept/ 2020! https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/446393/DCF922B3-2B6F-48AB-9E9D-3236CE1EA00B-2183021.jpg Quoted: Quoted: LOL two more weeks? Lol. This time !! Big pop! Yes just keep waiting lol. 1. Information is to abundant. The market adjusts to damn quick. 2. To many people waiting for it balancing the market. There isn’t an army of brokers looking for anything to sell and resell. 3. PMI funds actual market bust insurance that is funded. Banks will not go running for the hills if prices go slightly down. 4. People qualifying for these loans are very qualified. No teaser rates and if you don’t want a big down payment you have to pay EXTRA (PMI) at the beginning of the loan. That said I bought this for 260,000 in sept/ 2020! https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/446393/DCF922B3-2B6F-48AB-9E9D-3236CE1EA00B-2183021.jpg Too. |
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Quoted: Stop selling to them? It takes 5 min to look up voter registration which is a public record lol  .Quoted: Quoted: Just depends on where you are. D/FW isn't showing any signs of slowing down with Yankees and Californians continuing to roll in. Stop selling to them? It takes 5 min to look up voter registration which is a public record lol .Yah, that’s not going to happen. People want the sale more than they care where the buyer is from. |
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Now they say it is over here..... https://dfw.cbslocal.com/2021/12/02/texas-real-estate-frenzy/ |
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Quoted: Now they say it is over here..... https://dfw.cbslocal.com/2021/12/02/texas-real-estate-frenzy/ Could be slowing in the DFW area. Land is still way too high in county areas of Tx. I’m seeing stuff sit. Re split to try and find a buyer. |