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Posted: 10/16/2020 2:01:59 AM EDT
[#1]
I've got $100 on Trump at .36 and a couple other smaller bets like GOP winning Wisconsin.
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Posted: 10/16/2020 2:06:52 AM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That's not what I see https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/300501/D5B01001-4490-4CCD-80BE-197129640593_png-1638290.JPG I was looking at PA election 
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Posted: 10/16/2020 2:09:30 AM EDT
[#3]
Ive got a few grand on T$.
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Posted: 10/16/2020 2:20:16 AM EDT
[#4]
 Betting Market EERILY Similar To 2016, Major Poll Shows Why Trump Might Actually Win |
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Posted: 10/16/2020 2:26:14 AM EDT
[#5]
I put some money on Trump a few months ago.
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Posted: 10/16/2020 4:24:18 AM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I thought it was 10% of the profit and 5% for the withdraw fee. Then add in the market caps to limit winnings and you really have to find predictions that are heavily skewed. The 2016 election had Trump at 18 cents, so it was worth it. Now, meh. I keep seeing that site thrown around. Looking at the TOS and fee structure its terrible. |
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Posted: 10/16/2020 4:31:34 AM EDT
[#7]
So if I understand these market sites correctly it is not a traditional book. The site just makes a market and takes a cut. They don't actually back any bets either way.
So if you have 100 blue haired freaks that really love Biden and 40 barrel chested freedom loving Chads who believe that GEOTUS protects and a cap on what everyone can put into the market wouldn't that skew things a bit? What I'm saying is I don't put a lot of faith in these market sites as a predictor on what will happen on election day. It is not a true Vegas style book and I see people talking about it like it is. |
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Posted: 10/16/2020 4:33:32 AM EDT
[#8]
Be curious to see if anyone in the media and democrats put money on Trump
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Posted: 10/16/2020 5:57:49 AM EDT
[#9]
I'm waiting for better odds. If it goes 5:1, I'll get in.
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Posted: 10/16/2020 4:28:52 PM EDT
[#10]
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Posted: 10/16/2020 4:33:22 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Ive got a few grand on T$. Not on PredictIt. |
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Posted: 10/16/2020 4:35:43 PM EDT
[#12]
I put a few hundred on Trump back in 2016, turned it into $1,200 by watering it with liberal tears. I have 600 shares at 39 cents so far this year.
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Posted: 10/16/2020 4:38:38 PM EDT
[#13]
I'm getting an error saying that the maximum amount of traders has been reached. Did I miss out?
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Posted: 10/16/2020 4:38:38 PM EDT
[#14]
I'd bet on Biden, so at least if Trump lost, I'd make some money. If Trump wins, I would be too relieved to care.
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Posted: 10/16/2020 4:39:12 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I'm getting an error saying that the maximum amount of traders has been reached. Did I miss out? Maybe they're just saying the site is too busy right now and come back later? |
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Posted: 10/16/2020 4:42:07 PM EDT
[#16]
When you're hot your hot.
When you're not your not. |
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Posted: 10/16/2020 4:43:30 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Maybe they're just saying the site is too busy right now and come back later? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I'm getting an error saying that the maximum amount of traders has been reached. Did I miss out? Maybe they're just saying the site is too busy right now and come back later? Hmm, I found another one that asked which party would win. I couldn't bet on Trump but I guess betting on the GOP is the same thing.  Attached File |
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Posted: 10/16/2020 4:47:49 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Hmm, I found another one that asked which party would win. I couldn't bet on Trump but I guess betting on the GOP is the same thing. https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/406502/trump_2020_get_money_JPG-1639104.JPG That is what the leftists bet on when they think Trump will win it. But don't want to feel too dirty about it.
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Posted: 10/16/2020 4:48:31 PM EDT
[#19]
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Posted: 10/16/2020 4:49:37 PM EDT
[#20]
I had $200 on Trump @ 22 cent in 2016. That worked out well.
Also, keep in mind you can buy "Biden No" if is a better price than "Trump Yes". |
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Posted: 10/16/2020 4:52:21 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Hmm, I found another one that asked which party would win. I couldn't bet on Trump but I guess betting on the GOP is the same thing. https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/406502/trump_2020_get_money_JPG-1639104.JPG That seems to lag a bit behind the main race.  Attached File |
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Posted: 10/16/2020 4:56:33 PM EDT
[#22]
I put $100 on him at 41c per share
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Posted: 10/17/2020 2:33:05 PM EDT
[#23]
When do you expect Biden people to radically start selling off their Yes shares? If at all. I would have thought to see some sort of movement after this Biden corruption evidence dropped. But nothing. Maybe a symptom of MSM propaganda. Or mostly zealots betting on this.
 Attached File |
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Posted: 10/17/2020 2:46:23 PM EDT
[#24]
If Trump loses it's going to be a rough day for me.
Politically and financially |
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Posted: 10/17/2020 3:15:37 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted: If Trump loses it's going to be a rough day for me. Politically and financially |
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Posted: 10/17/2020 3:42:10 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted: When do you expect Biden people to radically start selling off their Yes shares? If at all. I would have thought to see some sort of movement after this Biden corruption evidence dropped. But nothing. Maybe a symptom of MSM propaganda. Or mostly zealots betting on this. https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/327887/Screenshot_2020-10-17_143406_jpg-1640624.JPG most likely because those voting Biden already know he's corrupt as sin, but they're not really voting for him, rather they're voting against Trump. |
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Posted: 10/17/2020 6:46:51 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted: How much do you have on Trump? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: If Trump loses it's going to be a rough day for me. Politically and financially Online gambling is illegal in WA state. But if I did have money on Trump it would be a cool G
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Posted: 10/17/2020 6:47:30 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted: When do you expect Biden people to radically start selling off their Yes shares? If at all. I would have thought to see some sort of movement after this Biden corruption evidence dropped. The people on PredictIt follow the polls. If they show Biden winning they they hold them. The people there keep spreadsheets of all the polls, when they drop, how they weight, and the second a new poll is officially released the market changes. They aren't guessing and hoping, they are simply playing a numbers games. |
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Posted: 10/17/2020 6:53:13 PM EDT
[#29]
In 2016 it swung massively. It was as much as 10 to 1 against Trump as the early results came in.
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Posted: 10/17/2020 6:54:20 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Online betting is illegal where I live. I forget how, but this isn't considered online betting. |
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Posted: 10/17/2020 6:55:25 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Online gambling is illegal in WA state. But if I did have money on Trump it would be a cool G I dont know how it works In Your state. But this technically isn't gambling. It is actually ran by a university as a non profit that is doing data research https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/heres-how-to-legally-gamble-on-the-2016-race/2016/03/28/14397dde-f1dc-11e5-85a6-2132cf446d0a_story.html |
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Posted: 10/17/2020 6:57:07 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I keep seeing that site thrown around. Looking at the TOS and fee structure its terrible. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I thought it was 10% of the profit and 5% for the withdraw fee. Then add in the market caps to limit winnings and you really have to find predictions that are heavily skewed. The 2016 election had Trump at 18 cents, so it was worth it. Now, meh. I keep seeing that site thrown around. Looking at the TOS and fee structure its terrible. This is true. I was happy to win in 2016 but their fees and then the 1099 kill a decent percent of the gain. |
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Posted: 10/17/2020 6:58:29 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I'm getting an error saying that the maximum amount of traders has been reached. Did I miss out? That bet may be full, but you can also bet on vice presidents and individual states. |
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Posted: 10/17/2020 7:03:14 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I dont know how it works In Your state. But this technically isn't gambling. It is actually ran by a university as a non profit that is doing data research https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/heres-how-to-legally-gamble-on-the-2016-race/2016/03/28/14397dde-f1dc-11e5-85a6-2132cf446d0a_story.html Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Online gambling is illegal in WA state. But if I did have money on Trump it would be a cool G I dont know how it works In Your state. But this technically isn't gambling. It is actually ran by a university as a non profit that is doing data research https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/heres-how-to-legally-gamble-on-the-2016-race/2016/03/28/14397dde-f1dc-11e5-85a6-2132cf446d0a_story.html Yea I saw that, super cool work around! I will have to look into it but in terms of political bets the bank is closed lol |
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Posted: 10/17/2020 7:11:19 PM EDT
[#35]
I put $300 in.
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Posted: 10/17/2020 7:29:08 PM EDT
[#36]
What fucking idiot bets in these things?
There is no cutoff-point that will ensure the odds to be locked. Rest assured, the shills will manipulate the odds so there is only small payout. Today's odds are meaningless, except to serve as bait for fools. Today, the strong odds show Horse A as being the likely winner, so dumb-asses TODAY will bet on Horse A thinking they can't lose. As if initial odds in a gambling proposal are predictive of the actual outcome of the underlying contest. Fools. As payout-day grows closer, the shills will dump funds into Horse-B-bets to even the odds, and ensure that there will be a lesser payout to Horse-A-bettors. As the odds tilt back to center, the early Horse-A-bettors will dump money into Horse-B-bets to hedge the declining-value of their initial bet on Horse A. As the pool of wagered money grows, the raw dollar-amount of the percentage-cut to the betting agency grows and grows. Meanwhile, as the relative odds tilt toward an even payout obligation for the betting agency, the dollar-payout to "winning" bettors is less and less. That's the way these rip-off games work. If you don't understand this, you truly do deserve to lose your money. Read their rules: The Rules The individual identified in the question shall be the winner of the 2020 U.S. presidential general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final |
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Posted: 10/17/2020 7:32:36 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted: What fucking idiot bets in these things? There is no cutoff-point that will ensure the odds to be locked. Rest assured, the shills will manipulate the odds so there is only small payout. Today's odds are meaningless, except to serve as bait for fools. Today, the strong odds show Horse A as being the likely winner, so dumb-asses TODAY will bet on Horse A thinking they can't lose. As if initial odds in a gambling proposal are predictive of the actual outcome of the underlying contest. Fools. As payout-day grows closer, the shills will dump funds into Horse-B-bets to even the odds, and ensure that there will be a lesser payout to Horse-A-bettors. As the odds tilt back to center, the early Horse-A-bettors will dump money into Horse-B-bets to hedge the declining-value of their initial bet on Horse A. As the pool of wagered money grows, the raw dollar-amount of the percentage-cut to the betting agency grows and grows. Meanwhile, as the relative odds tilt toward an even payout obligation for the betting agency, the dollar-payout to "winning" bettors is less and less. That's the way these rip-off games work. If you don't understand this, you truly do deserve to lose your money. Read their rules: Nobody here is doing this as some sort of income generation. It is entertainment. I don't see people putting money out there they don't already expect to lose. A win would be a bonus. |
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Posted: 10/17/2020 7:44:06 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Nobody here is doing this as some sort of income generation. It is entertainment. I don't see people putting money out there they don't already expect to lose. A win would be a bonus. Did you just say gamblers bet money for reasons other than the hope of making money? "Just for fun" as they say. Makes perfect sense to me, right? So long as we agree that losing most of the time is "fun." Its a riot. For the house. |
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Posted: 10/17/2020 8:05:51 PM EDT
[#39]
I'll be happy if I lose it.
$500ish of the money I have in is profit from the primaries that I rolled into general election  Attached File |
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Posted: 10/17/2020 8:30:01 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I put 100 on trump last week +1 |
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Posted: 10/17/2020 8:37:34 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Did you just say gamblers bet money for reasons other than the hope of making money? "Just for fun" as they say. Makes perfect sense to me, right? So long as we agree that losing most of the time is "fun." Its a riot. For the house. I'm actually curious what Vegas does if the election is contested. If both sides declares they won, who do they pay out? |
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Posted: 10/17/2020 9:04:56 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I'm actually curious what Vegas does if the election is contested. If both sides declares they won, who do they pay out? Maybe the bets against gap toothed stacy abrams in Georgia, who has still refused to accept defeat, might not have paid out 
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Posted: 11/3/2020 11:39:13 PM EDT
[#43]
Guys, we did it! Congrats!
Now how do I get my money back from this site? 
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Posted: 11/4/2020 12:01:37 AM EDT
[#44]
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Posted: 11/4/2020 12:23:11 AM EDT
[#45]
I’ve been buying in a little along for months. have more than I should for Biden NO around .36. I cant get the site to load tonight.
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Posted: 11/4/2020 9:36:20 AM EDT
[#46]
I tapped out last night when Trump was 70 cents. Managed to pull a small profit. Better than nothing I guess.
 Attached File Attached File |
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Posted: 11/4/2020 2:18:08 PM EDT
[#47]
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Posted: 11/6/2020 12:13:20 AM EDT
[#48]
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Posted: 11/6/2020 12:18:37 AM EDT
[#49]
It is really starting to look like I will lose $700 this year. In 2016 I turned $400 into $2,100, so I guess I've had my fun. I've never withdrawn money. I just let it ride.
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Posted: 11/6/2020 12:26:17 AM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It is really starting to look like I will lose $700 this year. In 2016 I turned $400 into $2,100, so I guess I've had my fun. I've never withdrawn money. I just let it ride. It ain't over yet. |
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