Never stated they weren’t in the plans for the supply chain. I said very few ( as you listed some) were advanced. And none ( you listed none) were in the “ most advanced”.
But the narrative that they are going to be frontline weapons in a decade is foolishness. We are in a new arms race, these weapons will need to be relegated to secondary status if our military wants to stay relevant. Yes, that will be expensive…. but we have made serious enemies over the last 80 years.. to relent on our MIC is suicidal.

Those three PGMs are actually some of the best in the world, and anyone who studies war knows the game changing effects they caused since they were introduced

That sounds utterly horrific if we end up in that situation...

Of all the stuff pumped into UA that was touted as a "game changer", HIMARS lived up to the billing.

Great post.

Still taking the blue pill.

I didn't say Russia = USSR
They definitely suck way worse, a criminal enterprise without any of the true believers who go to work for the good of the country. All that shit's gone.
Russia's in a different wrapper, but the contents are very similar- boyars changed names, but the games remain the same.

They definitely want it back though. THAT's the point. They've exhausted what they've got with crashing demographics and third world manufacturing, now they're moving on to a neighbor to put the band back together, because their particular interpretation of history tells them they can.

I realize that has a level of subtlety that doesn't work well in an internet argument, but for someone who was just chastising others for only having black and white brushes, it should be no problem.

You were talking up Russia's economy like it would be a better place to live in a few years.
What are you talking about?  The US has not had and isn't predicted to have a decline in GDP in the next couple of years.  Moscow predicted their GDP would decline and you indicated a belief that we would do worse than Russia's economy.
Our economic woes are primarily caused by monetary policy, welfare spending, insane tax code, and over- and mal-regulation.  Business cycles are also generally much longer than the three years shown making this a meaningless claim.  If we're on the downside of our business cycle while other regions are on the upside of theirs then the long term prediction is wrong.  There was a similar problem during covid.  Deaths from flu and other respiratory diseases are cyclical and some nations got hit at a peak and others at a trough causing significant differences in apparent mortality.

Of course any method of national economic measurement which implicitly assumes that all governmental spending is positive is bogus anyway and Russia is trying to move to a "war economy" so their actual economy will be stagnating harder than the GDP indicates.
So you're admitting that your predictions are wrong and that stabbing Ukraine in the back will help Russia and hurt us?  Duh.

3) Since there is no need to involve NATO forces we can just properly supply Ukraine which will end the war quickly, minimize rebuilding costs, and get Russia to pay reparations (and maximize Ukraine's contribution to the West's prosperity.)

4) You can support Biden in trashing America's reputation again just a short time after Afghanistan and we, along with the rest of the world, can pay the long term price of decreased stability.


I agree on "you break it - you buy it".  The US is at least partially responsible for Ukraine not being adequately prepared to deter or defeat this invasion and we need to step up.

lol

I'd tend to reject the idea of Russians and Chinese being "partners" to this point. Shared interests, certainly, but the Chinese just don't have an interest in a mutually beneficial partnership with anyone. Just not how they roll.

The lack of even a loss of control, let alone nuclear use incident was as much a function of luck, some smart scientists on our side and residual Soviet professionalism among their weapons troops and scientists as any planning on our part. We got extraordinarily lucky, and being fortunate in the past shouldn't be our guide in the future.

Putin might have placed the Russians in this situation of the increased deterioration of Russia and their might not have been anything we could have done up this point to stop it, except for the years when we appear to have successfully deterred him.

Why are you arguing with an expert?

You're having your melted windshield moment.

The Chinese - Russian relationship was different and much stronger a year ago.

Here’s an article from Feb 2022:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-china-tell-nato-stop-expansion-moscow-backs-beijing-taiwan-2022-02-04/

Putin isn’t looking as good to Xi nowadays.

You have to understand how stupid the average Russophobe is before you can relate to them. They suck up propaganda at an alarming rate. Especially the neocon trash here.

Where did I write anything of the sort?  I linked a Newsweek article and then posted screenshots directly from the IMF website.  Pathetic attempt to question my patriotism.  If I wanted to go live in Russia, I'd already be there.  The US is my home, and I love this country.  The quickness with which some people who have no argument jump to the "You're a traitor!" response is disappointing.  Do better.    




Projected decline in US GDP is right on the IMF website.  Let me guess, they work for Putin?  You think our tax codes, monetary policy, and welfare spending is going to change and improve things in the IMF prediction timeframe?  That's a neat thought, and I hope you're right, but guess who doesn't have the ability to overcome the Dem senate majority and POTUS veto for two more years.  Oh yeah, us. There isn't going to be a legislative renaissance in the next two years, bruh.



Huh?  That doesn't make any sense.  My predictions?  Stab Ukraine in the back?  You think Ukraine has been some great ally to the US and we owe them something?  Don't kid yourself.  Also you're assuming that the IMF is incorrect and that everyone should just believe the opposite of their data.  You got a crystal ball?



Rebuilding will already cost minimum of $750 billion (more realistically far more than 1T).  Not my figures.  Davos vampires numbers, feel free to look it up.  Go ahead and give the dollar amount of aid that would "end the war quickly".  We're all eager to hear the magic number.  Also, who's going to force Russia to pay reparations, again? As for Ukraine's great coming contributions to the west, I'll just their past great contributions to the west as the benchmark for how much that's worth.  Porn?  Internet fraud?



Now this is just dumb, dude.  Seriously.  Happy to have voted twice for Trump, will do so again unless Ron gets his thing happening.  No Biden support here, but thanks for playing.



Yay, common ground.

Define "step up".  With numbers of dollars and amounts of armaments, please.

That's likely a positive for Xi. The Chinese view of strategic harmony is not how we view it. The Chinese view wants her periphery surrounded by small and squabbling states whose economic and security interests are aligned to Beijing, that do not threaten Beijing, that trade with Beijing predominately, that accept Chinese populations willingly and do not aid large external enemies.

This is not some lofty view of a grand global social order. So China views things in a zero-sum fashion (and to a fair degree or more, so does Russia) and the number of competing Russian and Chinese security and economic interests in Central Asia alone (but also the Arctic, Africa, and the Middle East) limited the amount of cooperation either would engage in. This was a stand off beneficial to China, but as Russia weakens, Chinese power in Central Asia also will favor the Chinese and force the Russians to make concessions.

I have opposed the war since the beginning

They are partners of convenience , each shoring up its flank from a potential invader by partnering with that invader

I did not attack your patriotism.  I quite reasonably deduced "US economy sucks.  Russian economy rocks." from your statements and tone.  If that was not your intent then I'll quote a few sentences in hopes you can figure out where you went wrong.
You do not understand the IMF projections you posted.  There is NO projected decline in the United State's GDP according to the IMF.  There is a projected reduction in the rate of growth in the short term.  You do understand that a reduction in the rate of growth is not the same as a reduction in size, right?  Several portions of your posts are based on this mistake.

Imagine that the left returns to it's default anti-war/pro-Russia position and the demoralized and conspiratard right grow to the point that the US will no longer provide aid to Ukraine.  What do you expect Biden to do?  Say that he's done all he can and it's all in their hands?  No.  He's going to play fuck-fuck games and force Ukraine to surrender "sign a peace agreement" giving Russia parts of Ukraine and effectively letting them know they can grab the rest in another eight years.  Forcing anyone willing to continue to fight to surrender to Russia is stabbing them in the back to any reasonable person.

I did not say that Ukraine "has been some great ally".  You manufactured that out of thin air.  What I said was that due to past actions by the US government we owe them.

There is no magic number, but anyone with two brain cells can figure out that the slower we provide aid and the more "off ramps" we offer Putin and the more public resistance to providing aid the longer the war will take and the more expensive it and the rebuilding will be.

Biden damaged the United State's international reputation with the pullout from Afghanistan.  Cutting off Ukraine and letting Russia win or, worse, stabbing them in the back, instead of following through would do worse by an order of magnitude.  Biden is limiting and delaying aid.  You want to limit aid (to zero.)  QED you support Biden.  QED you support the destruction of our international reputation including indicating to China that we will not come to Taiwan's aid if they attack.

How much?  Enough to expel Russia from Ukraine in a reasonably quick time frame.

What does that even mean?

You appose Ukraine defending it's self and wish they'd just get annexed by Russia?

You want to write a stern letter to Russia and tell them no?

You want to give Ukraine the aid they need to defend themselves and stop Russian aggression?

My hope is that China sees Russia’s weakness and angles for its resources.  

Hostilities between those two countries would take some of their attention away from hostilities with the rest of the world.

Russians are way too proud to willingly become subservient to their Chinese overlords.

The Russians are too stupid to realize when they crossed the LOD, they functionally did.

To me, much of the Russian justification of the invasion probably lies in wanting Ukrainian "strategic depth" against China as much as Russia wanting to keep the EU at arms length. Just like Russian moves in the Arctic are an implicit recognition of Russia's losing influence in Central Asia to China and Turkey.

Of course you insinuated that I lacked patriotism.  You unambiguously suggested I felt Russia would be a better place to live, which is a purposeful tactic of suggesting that I have no loyalty to my country and that picking up and leaving for Russia was something I would support as a good idea (again, because I'm supposedly such a selfish and disloyal person that some slight perceived economic advantage would be sufficient to leave my homeland). By your same logic I would also be endorsing moving to China, where their growth is projected to be even higher.

That said you're correct in some of your post.  I'm no economic expert.  And I'm certainly capable of misreading data.  However, a lack of economic growth for the US is still catastrophic.  We have received seven million (maybe more) economic migrants in the last couple of years.  Without strong growth our nation will suffer even more from the costs associated with this migration.  The US economy is already in bad shape, as most anyone with a 401k will tell you.  Also, Russian GDP growing at a faster rate than our own IS indeed the opposite of what we were sold by our politicians.  We ARE suffering in the US because of these sanctions and foreign policy decisions, and it will sadly continue.  So even if I'm not the most astute reader of economic data, the problem remains the same.  It's splitting hairs.



"The Left" is the primary driving force for aid to Ukraine.  The media is almost uniformly supportive of the narrative that the US must give Ukraine anything it wants, and the media is run by leftists.  If the US government was NOT run by leftists, I'm not sure the conflict would have escalated to the extent it has.  Trump wants a peace deal.  Lots of conservatives want a peace deal (certainly not all).  My reading of the left's support for Ukraine is that they still blame Russia for Trump. That this Ukraine adventure is their grand scheme of revenge for Orange Hitler, along with Biden protecting investments or secrets that Nuland, Graham, and McCain also believed in.  People questioning the Ukraine aid have routinely been shouted down, censored, and cancelled by the leftists who control the media and corporate HR.  Corporate communication platforms were full of Ukrainian flag avatars for MONTHS.  Not supporting perpetual free money for Ukraine IS the rebellious position in America today.  There's far more risks to your social life and career if you are vocal about not liking it, and that's due to the leftists.  So you should be openly grateful to them.  They're Ukraine's sugar daddy who can't wait to give away more of my money. The House only now has a GOP slight majority as of January.  When did the lions share of the Ukraine aid get approved?  Oh right.  Dem controlled House, Senate, and President.

I've witnessed in my own family seething, insufferable leftists morph from protesting the Iraq War and supporting Edward Snowden into being chickenhawk armchair generals suggesting that Russian oligarchs assassinate Putin, then have Russian industry take over the government.  Then they go on to virtue signal as God's chosen "Defenders of Democracy!". All while they drive their electric car.  Not exaggerating, either.  Leftists prescribing literal fascism in Russia to get rid of Putin.  Russia might be authoritarian and a lot of other things, but the idea that Putin (who lost family to the Nazis) is one himself reeks of hyperbole and propaganda.  Is he a bad guy?  Yep.  Nazi?  Don't think so.  Funny how the same folks that say that say Trump is a Nazi too.  They also pretend that their opinions are somehow still "dangerous to have" despite enjoying almost uniform consensus in the media and at their workplaces.  Strange that those with the safest opinions see themselves as being perpetually endangered victims. Almost like it's critical to their identity....

Ukraine has much more of a friend in Biden than they do in the overall US conservative population, despite how the media frames things.  Even on this forum you might get a distorted impression of who supports endlessly bankrolling this war.  People are reluctant to voice their opinions on it because they know they'll catch a lot of hyperbolic attacks if they do.  At some point, they just go quiet and don't bother.  They have better things to do than argue on the internet.  In fact, I'm kicking myself for taking attention away from making money and enjoying life by participating in this endless circlejerk duel (not this particular thread, just overall).



So because we've provided aid, we're obligated to provide endless additional aid?  I noticed you left out any metrics.  And you criticize Biden?  "Give me more money and guns, because you gave me some earlier!", doesn't sound like a conservative, does it?  Quite the opposite.  I don't think US taxpayers appreciate being told they're obligated to the tune of some secret dollar amount that you won't even guess at to help Ukraine.  Especially while we have horrific problems here at home.  Probably not a winning tactic for public relations.  It's a bold strategy, let's see how it works out.



Put away the "Jump to Conclusions" mat.  Wanting to limit endless cash and weapons, and getting a solid accounting of my money going to Ukraine, is supporting Biden?  By that logic, what is "supporting Trump"?  Biden is the man who is the main instrument through which Ukraine has gotten most of its money and whose own son and family has, for years, benefitted from a transactional relationship with Ukraine.  Do you believe that throwing Biden to the wolves on an Internet forum in regard to Ukraine aid will trick people into not seeing that the man you're attacking has been instrumental in supporting the very cause for which you're lobbying?  Do you not understand that, or are you attempting to deceive?  Biden still employs Nuland, who is the primary architect of this fiasco and you attack him as not being generous enough with my money.  That's rich.



And there it is.  Endless money.  Endless weapons.

Don't get me wrong.  I am very sympathetic to the suffering of the Ukrainian people.  I wish this had never happened, and that the Ukrainian government had enough common sense to know that allowing the Obama admin, Nuland, Lindsay Graham, and John McCain (and others, surely) into setting up this situation was always going to be a horribly bad idea.  Bad for Ukraine, and her future.  But they didn't see it, or the infamously corrupt Ukrainian leadership took the bribe and went ahead anyway despite the risks.  Now Ukraine is in a drunken knife fight outside Vlad's Vodka Bar and the cheering patrons who at first were shouting "You can do eet!" are starting to go home.  Ukraine chose.... poorly.  Just like the Kurds.  And others before them.  It's almost like the US should focus on its own interests rather than repeatedly failing at its World Cop impression.  But other countries should also have some common sense and come to terms with reality.  Ukraine should have been smarter and realized that in effect their role is as a buffer state.  Had they embraced that and even feigned a non-aggressive stance toward Russia, none of this would have happened.  They could still be a cheap place to outsource American software jobs, show off naked ladies, and grow wheat.  

The Ukrainian government was fooled, or enticed into possible suicide by greed.  Now the country is getting destroyed, their young men are killing and dying, and the end result will resemble more the Korean DMZ than a functioning democratic nation.  And with Z-man acting like a dictator the shine continues to wear off even further.  It's sad as hell.

You.................................................

I'm about as conservative as you can get, I oppose it

Putin would very much like to put the Soviet Empire back together under his watch.

Ukraine would be a very important part of achieving that goal.

Historically, it was the center of the USSR's MIC.  Not to mention all of the natural resources and rich farmland.

Sure we all opposed Russias invasion

But as far as I can tell you've never opposed any military action by the US.  It's all justified.

Me too.  I oppose Russia's war of aggression to the point that I would like to see the US and NATO supply Ukraine with everything it needs to end the war and expel the Russian invaders as quickly as possible.

That is a traditionally conservative view.  What would Reagan do?

Reagen isn't how you define conservatism.

Boomers do that.

But you enjoy all that Globalism.

Many of you seem to love Russia.  How strange.

But if you feel that strongly in favor of our enemy, the Russians, why don’t you go join their military?


Skip to the 2:00 minute mark to watch your Russian recruiting video:




Go join the country you love.  

Me?  I’m good with America, thanks.  No question I am on our side, not Russia’s.

I’m Gen X and he’s still my guy.

Are you more of a Ron Paul guy?

Awwww.  Here ya' go.   Attached File

Asked and answered...surrender to the Iranians after their proxies torture Americans to death, and help out the Chinese Communists.

Double the national debt like he did in the 80's?

ETA: Run guns to another country and fund a proxy war, then when caught through someone under the bus and have Bill Barr right up a bunch of Presidential Pardons to cover up the WH involvement.

And top it off with banning machine guns and giving amnesty to millions of illegal aliens.  Just what the doctor ordered to cure America's ills today.  

Well, I have lost the pulse of GD these days.  We used like Reagan.  Who are you guys into now?

At any rate, this is what Statesmanship looks like:

It was one of America's finest moments in the modern age.

I don't think Reagan was a bad President...however, he was happy to make decisions (or actually more important delegate) decisions to people that simply weren't that awesome. Reagan also trusted people that had neither his legacy, the country's interest or even the desire to uphold a promise at heart.

Like most Presidents, its a mixed bag...probably more good than bad, but you simply can't look the other way when Reagan fucked the dog, either.

Most of his advisors, and those most in ascendency were against that speech, for example.

Thank you for the thoughtful and well written posts.

We don’t have to agree on all things to treat each other civilly.

Totally agree.  SJ1's posts are the gold standard.  Was thinking the same thing earlier today.  

Thank you both. Its heartily appreciated.

Fuck yes! Socialism at home must be the priority!! Ramen!!!

You're making a mountain out of a molehill while hypocritically telling me I should be openly grateful to the left.

We are heading into a recession.  Recessions flush bad debt and unprofitable businesses from the market and are necessary to the long term growth of the economy.  Two years is not long term.

In only a year Russia has suffered a brain drain of several hundred thousand people fleeing conscription and war tyranny in addition to hundreds of thousands of casualties (killed and wounded).  On the plus side for them they have flushed a large portion of their prison population in Bakhmut and have kidnapped or absorbed a ton of Ukrainians.

Saying that we and Europe are destroying ourselves via sanctions is like claiming that the solution to a hangover is to drink more.  Europe became addicted to Russian energy without having adquate backup plans in place for when Putin used that energy supply as international blackmail which he had done several times before.

Gross Domestic Product can be calculated by adding consumer spending, government spending, investment spending, and net exports.  Politicians, here and abroad, try to "fix" the economy and save face by falsifying GDP with excessive government spending.  We are in a peacetime economy while Russia is shifting to a war economy.  If you want to know what that means go back and subtract government spending from the United States' GDP during WWII.  That is what Russia is doing to its' economy, but it will look good on paper.

The left is not the primary driving force.  The left is being driven by current events.  After 9/11 the left showed a burst of patriotism before defaulting back to anti-war with "no war for oil" and "no WMDs in Iraq (even though there were)" talking points.  Your own examples of family members that are rabidly against the invasion of Iraq, Trump being for a 'peace deal', and "Corporate communication platforms were full of Ukrainian flag avatars for MONTHS" all support my prediction that the left does not wish to support Ukraine and will drop support as soon as they can get away with it.  Getting to the same position as the left, just earlier, is not rebellious -- it is an aggressive form of surrender.

Apparently you haven't been paying attention to the threads just on this site.  The anti-Ukraine trolls are disgusting and vicious and never-ending.

Literal fascism like the Putin Jugend?

You're right, if the US government was run by right wingers instead of Clinton then Russia's expansionism would have been shut down in '94 when they invaded Chechnya.

Refusing to acknowledge that Biden is in the way of properly supporting Ukraine does not negate the truth.  Conservatives support winning the war instead of continuing it endlessly.

That is the exact opposite of what I said.  The US government has actively inhibited Ukraine's preparedness therefore we owe them.  We also have signed documents respecting Ukraine's borders.  Even if you argue that legalistically we aren't obligated we still are by the spirit of the Memorandum.  If you want to argue that instead we should have helped Ukraine bypass the Soviet firing mechanisms on their nukes so they could defend themselves from Russia then I won't argue with you.

We know that the "solid accounting" and "we need to audit" talking point are not honest, but just an attempt to delay and restrict aid.  If it was honest it would include an understanding that Ukraine has been improving, Russia is worse and getting worse, throwing them to the wolves will not improve the corruption, and it isn't a reason to throw them to the wolves.  If an audit finds nothing it will be ignored and the "10% for the big guy" and "notorious Ukrainian corruption" slurs will continue to be spammed.  If an audit found a little corruption it will be exaggerated to the high heavens.  If any major corruption is discovered no attempt to correct the situation will be adequate.  We see this already with the dismissal of Ukrainian anti-corruption arrests.

In regards to endlessness you must acknowledge that Russia is a hostile destabilizing country and is allied with and a supporter of other hostile destabilizing countries all of which are willing and able to do supporting terrorists, operations other than war, operations short of war, fifth generation warfare, espionage, and subversion.  The network of alliances and support makes them a worldwide problem not a non-threat to us like the talking point.  They will remain a perpetual cost to us unless we invade and impose a civilized and effective government, for which we don't have a good track record recently.  The goal therefore cannot be to stop the spending, but to minimize the long term costs, opportunity costs, bloodshed (especially ours), and maintain our international reputation to follow through on anything we sign and to protect our allies to deter other threats.  Keeping small threats small and reducing large threats to small ones is the best way to meet those goals.  Kicking the can down the road is retarded -- that's how we got Ukraine into this mess.

Your last paragraph is bullshit Russian propaganda.  Ukraine was never a threat to Russia.  Putin wants Ukraine and was going to do it eventually.  It is confusing that you blame the US (via the actions of President Obama, VP Biden, Nuland, Graham, McCain) for the position Ukraine is in, but deny that fault obligates us to help them.

Depends on the action.

Depends on what you mean by conservatives.

If you mean people who think we shouldn't be involved in wars that aren't ours, and follow george washington's advice... well yeah, they're gonna be against the states being dragged into this one.

Globalists by definition are not about conserving our states or our union.

It's not too much of an ask to understand this. It's not even far past that to realize you can legit hate putin's guts and see him for the strongman he is and view it as russians, stealing another nation, as they always have, and not think that's right in the slightest.

But the tribal monkey-screaming and poo-fling is just too fun, so people aren't gonna listen.

He's being sarcastic.

It's an expensive "investment" strategy that we're incapable of maintaining, in no small part because we've binged away our solvency to serve the selfish post WW2 generations (some disproportionately more than others) & assorted special/pet (corporate) interests. We're truly burning our own house down, & I don’t think propping Ukraine is going to save us from our enemies, foreign & domestic.

We likely agree about the tribal side picking thing.

Thing is, the counterfactual I see is one where had we done nothing and Russia took Ukraine largely unopposed, China would have been strengthened and emboldened and that would have led to just the opposite of conserving our union.  

It’s not so much about Russia and Ukraine, but rather the follow on effects.

I wouldn't be surprised at all to learn that the west's support of Ukraine gave China a bit of food for thought.

Or maybe they'll invade in the next 10 minutes.   Who knows?   The sure seem intent on testing things with the whole airspace violation thing.

If they don't invade, we'll probably never know if there was a direct correlation to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.  At least, not in my lifetime.

China is trying too hard. The US is compromised in the intelligence, industrial, social, & political arenas, to name a few. It makes no sense to push the peddle when they could stay on the path while we continue to fold from within. We're a house divided & doing the fighting for them from within. I think the recent moves are owed to desperation stemming from their failed centrally controlled economic planning & ultimately, Xi's ego. They could keep whittling away & leveraging our short term profit mentality & sapping our industrial production capabilities & just wait on Taiwan, which will be a nothingburger once we're out of the picture.