Nope. I've been very spun up on Ukraine since well before the 2022 invasion.

You think Ukraine has any capacity to make artillery? The collective west can't make it fast enough for them, but you think because you saw an article with 30 shells on the floor they are GTG?  You also think HIMARS is the only thing that's been keeping them afloat? Not the divestiture of the majority of the west's air defenses, the gutting of active European armies to provide modern vehicles, the western money that has kept their government operating?  The cruise missiles that have provided their saving grace IO victories?

Afghanistan has nothing to do with this, as the problem with an insurgency is the lack of an identified army to fight in the first place.

The minute they stop getting air defense from the west, which is very probable at this point, their major cities will erupt in fire and be flattened in weeks as they run dry.  Then on to military targets. That is just one facet of this that would immediately stop any Ukrainian progress.  One of many.  National will isn't going to stop 24 hour bombardments.

For all the Pro-Russia accounts that said it would never happen.

F-16’s are in Ukraine!!!

Ukraine F16 First Look

Absolutely agree

You nailed it.

Ukrainian determination, bravery, moral combined with western training & logistical support are what has Ukraine winning.

Eventually some of these delusional people will be saying “Russia hasn’t made it all the way to the Polish border so Ukraine won”.

I

Russia hasn't even made it to Kharkiv, Dnipro, or taken any of the territory they claimed originally.

It would take billions of willing Russian mobiks to do that.

Putin doesn't have that nor the equipment or troops or ordnance.

I guess that’s why the Ukrainians need press gangs.

Good. We need to return to anti federalism just like the foundingest of founding fathers intended.

I don't think they will stop getting SAMs, buy they might not get as many, which might mean they have to let a lot more Russian cruise missiles through, but we can supply them indefinately with enough missiles to make sure Russia doesn't get to fly aircraft over the FLOT without taking losses, and Russian aircraft production is practically non-existent.

We should return to the traditional practices from when the West was great and empty our prisons onto the battlefields too. Fuck hearts and minds, we need to abandon western thinking and play to win.

On this I do agree, but the position they have maintained is highly slanted towards that western support, which still has not been enough to push them over the finish line.  Any reduction and it's over, which there is going to be reductions no matter what.

*currency

FEDERAL RESERVE NOTES ARE NOT MONEY. MONEY HAS THREE PROPERTIES: one in Europe, one in solid phase, and a color. You'd best learn the difference between money and currency.

Indefinitely? Do you mean the U.S.? How so?

I’m aware of some Euro countries providing air defense packages recently but today was the final financial tranche provided by the White House

You need two things for hyper inflation. Massive printing of money and loss of faith in the currency. We've already done the first.  As soon as people realize what happened in Ukraine, we will have the second.

What makes you think that?

US Intel has a vested interest in serving their globalist pedophile MIC masters. Do not fall for their lies.

But what about the US border? More invaders have crossed into the US than Ukraine at 3 million per year since Potato took office (over 9 million more so far). How many Russians have invaded Ukraine? Thousands more are gearing up in the next wave.

We are not going to have a country culture or society left in a few years at this rate.

Let's worry about our own house on fire instead of the neighbors down the road.

We are building 500+ PAC-3 per year already with plans to increase further. Systems like NASAMs open up various other missiles as well.  Then there are the F-16s Ukraine will be operating soon. With the way Russia has been doing mass missile salvos off of long range bomber sorties, Ukraine has plenty of warning to scramble interceptors as long as they have them.

Speaking of F-16s, I bet a lot of the early model JASSMs are going to have their 15 year OEM warranty expire next year...

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I don't see any mention of Ukraine in the constitution, or treasonous foreign aid. Bankrupting the country is most certainly aid and comfort to our enemies. Hell, paying taxes to the enemies of America is treasonous too.

https://kyivindependent.com/fm-kuleba-europe-doesnt-know-how-to-fight-wars/

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Has Congress approved the transfer of those 500+ PAC-3?

I said we can, not that we will. What we will do remains to be seen.

Founding fathers sent foreign aid so it must not be



What have you done about the border?

The question we need to ask is why can't Russia win against Ukraine.

Dang, it almost seems like Ukraine sank another Russian ship or something.

Those were made to hit undersea reefs or something, it can totally be fixed.

Of all the aid provided, I’d say Air Defense is the most challenging {given operational requirements in the Pacific and the Middle East} as illustrated by needing Japan to revise its export controls recently.

But maybe the US finally overcomes bottlenecks, labor issues and funding requirements - imo FY 24 and FY 25 DOD budgets are dog shit after inflation is factored and is addressing all of the air defense needs. An ARF poster with ADA background asserted it is, which would be good news.

But ultimately, it remains to be seen if Congress resolves the expiring CR in January and the Senate / House impasse over immigration that’s holding up all supplementals. Johnson telegraphed that he he sees the timeline for resolving that as March, whereas Ukraine officials stated during Zelensky’s December 12 visit that Ukraine could continue without additional aid for 1 to 2 months. ISW claimed Ukraine could go without more aid until March

So I expect we’ll find out what transpires NLT 1 MAR 2024 and revisit the topic then

EU also debates their aid package in February with the earliest anticipated aid disbursed received by Ukraine in March.

I agree with you that the situation is far from ideal and there is a very real chance that more Ukrainians will suffer due to a lack of AA.

My statements were directed at Daemon's assertion that all major Ukrainian cities will be leveled within weeks of the West ceasing to provide more Patriot interceptors.  That isn't going to happen, and if it did, I suspect Russia would find out what it's like to fight a war under a no fly zone.

I always believed Russia invading Ukraine was a gamble/blind luck to deplete nato military capabilities.

Ita depleting Russia's military capabilities as well, which by extension reduces the Western capabilites that need to be committed to the European theater to counter it.

So NATO allies won't need to have as much armament as they did pre war when this whole thing is over? They'll be able to commit even less to the alliance?

What if that was part of the bigger plan?

Russia might be the sacrifice to deplete US might and further kill our economy.

I bet China has been very happy with the Ukraine war.

Where have you confirmed we made it to 500+ a year?  I have only seen plans to do so and nothing stating it had successfully occurred. I've seen lots of recent MIC plans and projections that have not panned out that are regularly cited as already being complete.

NASAMs also is in tiny numbers and takes a long time to produce systems.  There's really no telling how many are even left.

The F16's will help with rear area missile defense, but pilots will be the bottleneck there.




Russia stopped being a tactical threat to us in the early 1990's, so much so we pulled 90% of our military resources out of Europe by the late 90's.  Europe was so unconcerned they completely atrophied, which is a problem....one that probably isn't going to change outside of 2-3 countries regardless of Ukraine.

I bet China is happy though.

Ukraine can really only hold out, allow Russia to throw away men and treasure on a dug-in defender on his home turf.

Sadly, the reality is; they need to allow Russia to exhaust itself, and conserve as much as they can for as long as they can.

Also, taking out targets of opportunity that are strategic in nature and irreplaceable, ie. taking out ships, bombers and big ticket items, will fuck Russia in the long run.

LOL, hint it’s called conscription. Russia has one now. Try refusing to go and see what happens.

Hint:

Russia empty’s prisons
Chechens
Pays large sums for “Contract Soldiers”

Russia can start building factories tomorrow they won't be delivering equipment for a couple years at best.

There's a factor, that renders thousands of pieces of equipment little more than target practice.

Russia can't send wave after wave of untrained boys into Ukraine and win.

The backbone of any modern military are the NCOs E-4 through E-7s, not the CGOs, not the FGOs.  Your military runs on enlisted experience or it doesn't run, period.

You can't build experience off of dead conscripts and Russian has depleted its experienced NCO corps by something like 66% and it has almost no experience in its CGOs and FGOs, leading to a huge amount of its Colonels and Lt. Colonels getting killed in combat because they are picking up the slack.

It doesn't  if they can produce 1000 new fighters and helicopters in a year.  They don't have the time to train the pilots, this isn't WWII, and you just start things up and go.  They are bleeding experience by the day and they can't replace it.

2 years, that's how long it takes to push pilots through training on modern aircraft.

I just finished a China state interview with a retired Chinese general. They are closely monitoring what’s happening in Ukraine and aware of NATO deficiencies and Russian failures.

LOL

That’s out there..

There is absolutely zero basis for proclaiming the West is going to abandon Ukraine to some fire & brimstone death by Russian missiles..

They couldn’t build them anyway.

Currently they build maybe 20-30 a month.

Dude, that’s out there.

WTF are you talking about?

How do you equate that statement to this;

1.) Russia has not captured a strategic or even tactically important foot of ground in over a year.

(2.) Ukraine won the Battle of Hostomel and defeated the initial Russian invasion. A gamble they could capture Kiev in three days, force the Ukrainian government into exile and take the rest at leisure. Didn’t work out so well.

(3.) Ukraine counter-offensives have driven the Russian Army from Kiev, Kharkov, and Kherson. Forced full retreats.

(4.) Russia has also made zero progress taking two of their stated goals: capturing Donets & Luhansk Oblasts. ZERO Progress

(5.) Ukraine has successfully defended its airspace even outnumber 1,800 to 100 in the air. Ukrainian airspace is so dangerous Russia is afraid to deploy its VERY limited supply of SU-57 or even SU-35S for fear of them failing into Western hands.

(6.) For all the talk of “Increased Russian Production” they are still forced to beg Iran for cheap drones to use mostly to attack Ukrainian civilians. Russia would love to buy longer range missiles, but Iran says no. Same goes for missile production. Russia manages to build roughly 20-30 a month, and then immediately fire them off at civilian targets. Neither China nor previously mentioned Iran will sell them longer range missiles.

(7.) Russia once had the Black Sea essentially captured and threatened Odessa with an Amphibious attack. Those days are long over. 20% of the Black Sea Fleet is at the bottom, the Russian Navy has been forced to withdraw from Sevastopol, and now even further East Crimean ports are too dangerous. The blockade has been 100% broken and Ukrainian grain exports are flowing freely. Essentially the Black Sea is now a Ukrainian lake, which is funny because they don’t really have a Navy.

(8.) The “Long War” goes to Ukraine, they are supported directly by over 50 nations with economies over 60 trillion plus. Russia has an economy of 1.5 trillion and only has allies in; North Korea, Yemen, Syria. Attempts by Russia to get Belarus to join failed miserably. China and Iran are 100% Frenemies. Neither cares but they are willing to profit from Russian’s weakness. Hint: No Chinese Missiles, etc.

(9.) I place absolutely zero stock in any talk Western Nations are going to abandon Ukraine. Absolutely zero. Way too much ultra powerful Western money people have bet on Ukraine. Hint: Blackrock.

(10.) Remember Russia is spending 1.5 Billion on propaganda to undermine Western Support for Ukraine. Don't trust everything you read.

(11.) Well over 60% of the Russian tank inventory sits in Ukrainian scrap yards. The T-14 is hidden, the T-90M preforms no better than a forty-year-old T-72. Losses are so great 1950’s T-55’s are being brought back into service. It will take decades to rebuild the Russian tank brigades destroyed in Ukraine.

(12.) F-16's are coming.

Because people are criticizing OP for his thread title, which matches the CNBC headline.

I suspect Russia will continue its missile and drone campaigns, so a shortage of air defense will have a tremendous impact but specifically how that would pan out I can’t say as I’ve mainly focused more on whether aid continues. If it does then any speculation on my part would be moot and as our air defense ARF member pointed out in the anir defense thread, evaluating air defense capabilities for RUS/Ukraine using news is ineffective.

I’ll mostly be sitting back and waiting for developments to see how this unfolds but Ukraine is exploring domestic production to the best of its ability so I don’t anticipate an Afghanistan situation should the US fail to commit to aid at all or in a timely manner in 2024.

Obviously a lack of aid will have a major impact but the will of the Ukrainians being debated in the thread implies they’ll continue to fight, even if it devolves into guerrilla warfare down the road.

Last poll I saw for Ukraine was conducted in December with 58% of the public supporting continued war with a belief Ukraine will win. That might change if aid fails to materialize but for now they seem committed to continuing the fight.

I can’t find supporting documentation for this at this time. https://www.ukrinform.net/amp/rubric-ato/3805725-ihnat-urges-not-to-spread-rumors-about-f16-in-ukraine.html

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LOL

They show a Ukrainian F16 in the video..

I doubt any sane Ukrainians are asking that.

What everyone who supports Russia doesn't understand is this:

This should have been an easy victory for Russia, it isn't and they have paid an incredible toll for almost nothing to show for it.

The "2nd" best military in the world, is failing to co-ordinate and co-operate on what is "their" own turf, this should have been a cake walk for them.

They have lost major naval assets against a navy that basically doesn't exist anymore.

All their major modern weapons systems are failing not only against Western technology, but against obsolete versions of their own older equipment.  Basically their new shit isn't even as good as their old shit and they now have even less of it.

They have almost completely wiped out their prior professional military experience.  At this rate, NCOs and Officers will be nothing more than titles handed out to in experienced men/boys, leading other men/boys who know equally little.

They can produced 10000 tanks, planes, helicopters, ships, a year and none of it matters if the men driving the equipment don't know how to use it effectively.

Is it the ghost of Kyiv part 2?

For all I know that aircraft is located in Romania. There’s nothing in the main Ukraine thread that I’m seeing nor in Ukraine official press or MSM to support the aircraft are now in Ukraine today.

I’m aware the Netherlands stated earlier this week that the F-16 aircraft will be transported very soon but no specific date was mentioned by the Netherlands.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/12/26/six-ukrainian-war-pilots-finish-ten-more-continue-f-16-basic-training-in-uk/

If you have additional supporting information, please share it

Smoking a hookah with the muhajadeen in Kabul

WTF are you talking about?  Their new drone factories are already producing, as are their artillery plants.

https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/visible-progress-at-russias-shahed-drone-production-site

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ramping-up-war-production/32658857.html

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-ramps-up-output-some-military-hardware-by-more-than-tenfold-state-company-2023-09-19/

The rest of the problems you describe are literally the exact same ones faced by Ukraine, with much fewer resources to match.