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Posted: 12/20/2023 8:40:52 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted: A strong US President would then sell Taiwan some top notch US military equipment for their own defense against China. Come next year the USA will owe Taiwan close to 40 billion in weapons sales |
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Posted: 12/20/2023 8:45:16 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Taiwan is not the major provider. FYI TSMC has 2 FABS in mainland China, One in The US out of 12 total. All Taiwan Semi companies have FABs in mainland China Those in China do no manufacture 5nm or 3 nm. China currently boasts a domestic break of 7nm. China makes old tech, South Korea and Taiwan provide new shit. I find it strange that you’re trying to characterize China as a leader in microchips. No nation - Germany, Netherlands, Britain, USA, Japan or anyone shares what you’re describing. No authority subject matter experts such as Chris Miller agree with what you’re claiming From the pro China newspaper SCMP: https://amp.scmp.com/tech/tech-war/article/3236528/chinese-chip-making-lack-advanced-lithography-systems-becomes-focal-point-wake-huaweis-breakthrough  Attached File Attached File Attached File Attached File Attached File Attached File |
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Posted: 12/20/2023 8:48:03 PM EDT
[#3]
stock market will take a huge hit whenever this happens, china controlling most of the worlds chips is not good
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Posted: 12/20/2023 8:54:54 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Biden should have said Taiwan alone gets to decide if, when, and how Taiwan joins with the mainland, and that the US is committed to supporting freedom for all people - freedom of speech, freedom of religion, freedom of the press, freedom of assembly, freedom to protest and petition the government, independent judiciary, and the inherent right of self-determination. If China doesn't commit to supporting those principles, they can suck an egg. biden doesn't even support those things |
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Posted: 12/20/2023 8:55:14 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Well China we will flatten your cities, so you decide if it's worth it. Pedo Joe won't do shit about it. |
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Posted: 12/20/2023 8:56:03 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Well China we will flatten your cities, so you decide if it's worth it. Will we though? |
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Posted: 12/20/2023 8:59:40 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted: how would China take taiwan if taiwan fortified their island? I mean, anti sub and ship mines, AA guns...arty...etc. China doesn't care if it ends up a meat grinder, they've got a lot of disgruntled, lonely, military-age men with zero prospects of ever having families that the government wouldn't mind losing. |
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Posted: 12/20/2023 9:40:45 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Naw. China won't invade. China is a house of cards. Even more than us. The interruption of oil and food would collapse their system. Saber rattling is all they'll do. It's mainly for domestic consumption. One thing everybody knows about the Chinese is that they'll spy for money in a hearbeat. That'll go both ways. I'd bet the CIA has some high up guys in China on their payroll waiting on tickets to the land of the big PX. I think we'd know about a build-up way before it happens and that'd give Navy time to reposition. Their carrier killers won't be. If I recall correctly, US Humint in China was sold out some years back. They were never easy to penetrate in the first place, and our assets got wrecked. Was it the Snowden affair? I forget who did it, but we have less intel on China than we've ever had on anyone. IIRC. |
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Posted: 12/20/2023 9:53:23 PM EDT
[#9]
Good. US ain't going to do shit. Remember, US signed official agreement affirming Taiwan is part of China back in the days? Or does that agreement matters no more? Just like the promise to the Russians back in the 1980's of "not an inch eastwards".
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Posted: 12/20/2023 10:06:40 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted: If I recall correctly, US Humint in China was sold out some years back. They were never easy to penetrate in the first place, and our assets got wrecked. Was it the Snowden affair? I forget who did it, but we have less intel on China than we've ever had on anyone. IIRC. https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/08/15/botched-cia-communications-system-helped-blow-cover-chinese-agents-intelligence/ |
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Posted: 12/20/2023 10:24:08 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote History |
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Posted: 12/20/2023 10:50:45 PM EDT
[#12]
Ahhh, China threads in GD are such a treasure. So much doom and gloom
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Posted: 12/20/2023 11:09:13 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Ahhh, China threads in GD are such a treasure. So much doom and gloom Don’t forget people pontificating on topics they know nothing about. The TRUE hallmark of GD Arfcom. |
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Posted: 12/20/2023 11:10:37 PM EDT
[#14]
96 hours
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Posted: 12/20/2023 11:18:56 PM EDT
[#15]
I vote for an overwhelming nuclear first strike.
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Posted: 12/20/2023 11:25:27 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Biden is a weak, spineless dementia ridden pedo who projects zero strength. Xi will do whatever the fuck he wants and knows the US won't do shit. That Blinken character is a candy ass too. |
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Posted: 12/20/2023 11:38:19 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Idk enough about Chinese navy to make much of an educated comment, but I don't think they've got the assets for that. Anyone more knowledgeable care to chime in? I'm gonna look up what Taiwanese ports are the busiest too now that I'm interested 1. They don’t need a massive fleet of naval warships, just enough for a beachhead, and to capture some ports. China has a massive merchant fleet that could haul troops and supplies. 2. Chinese Air superiority would be a given without American air support. Given the distances it would be a massive undertaking to support Taiwan if they were under full assault given the distances in the region. 3. Bad news for china is that there’s only a few good spots to make an amphibious landing, and Taiwan has those fortified. Lots of artillery would make for a pretty bloody invasion. 4. Japan, SK, Australia, the Philippines, and the US all have a major interest in preventing this. Let’s not forget the entire western world gets more advanced computer chips from Taiwan than they get oil from Saudi Arabia. 5. Big unknown how many Taiwanese would rather remain independent or embrace their new Chinese overlords. 6. Big unknown if the Chinese could actually pull off an invasion. Russia has more war fighting experience than china and they still can’t pull off a victory vs Ukraine across flat land. Amphibious ops are much more complicated and dangerous. |
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Posted: 12/20/2023 11:38:23 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Basically yes. Democrats do not understand that you can't run foreign policy with authoritarian dictators, like you do domestic policy. They don't care about bad PR, getting cancelled, mean words on twitter, CNN headlines. They're way out of their league 'negotiating' with these guys like Xi and Putin. |
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Posted: 12/21/2023 1:55:01 AM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted: So a lot of that money went to a company Biden used as an example (don't remember which but I could look it up) That same company already had plans to build a new FAB with non-taxpayer money After they got taxpayer guarantees of if I remember 20billion, they delayed the project indefinitely. Kind of like 123 solar. Got money from Obama and left for China I've read a few articles now from within the last month that indicate otherwise. Including this one. Seems some companies had plans already to expand, and some are expanding because of the incentive. https://www.electronicsweekly.com/news/business/has-the-us-chips-act-been-a-success-2023-12/ |
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Posted: 12/21/2023 2:08:12 AM EDT
[#20]
We should have space-based kinetic weapons. Maybe lasso a few minor asteroids. Need that barbarian energy of just dropping a rock on someone.
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Posted: 12/21/2023 2:09:05 AM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Biden is a weak, spineless dementia ridden pedo who projects zero strength. Xi will do whatever the fuck he wants and knows the US won't do shit. Which is why the US has been more hawkish than ever before right? LOL |
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Posted: 12/21/2023 2:13:07 AM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That is my take as well, they are living well and not preparing for the coming storm. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: It irritates me a lot. The MIC is acting like we're still in the 1990s, living in Peace Dividend times. From my outsider perspective anyway. It's ramping up. There are several issues preventing immediate and apparent progress. Fiscal years and planning. Shit that happens this year was probably planned last year, using the information available then. Going from 5 of something to 50 of something, or however you want to scale it, is difficult if historically the expectation has been 5. Introducing the capability, expanding the infrastructure whatever to increase production will take time. This trickles down too. Not only are you expecting 10x final product, but every source of material to fab it is getting hammered with increased demand. Now that next link that provides the prime with materials is taking additional time to up their production, a year after the requirement was funded. It's ramping. I doubt we will see anything substantial before 2025 though. Some surprises exist, like the Coyote C-UAS system that the Army funded. Expected delivery FY25, so essentially calendar year 2026 will be first deliveries, and the contract goes to 2029 for full delivery of the order. Now imagine if the war in Ukraine didn't happen and this expansion started only after China started a war with the United States. |
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Posted: 12/21/2023 2:30:46 AM EDT
[#23]
Here's a good video on the Chinese Navy and the Taiwan war scenarios:
 Why the US is NOT afraid of the largest Navy in the world, yet |
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Posted: 12/21/2023 2:33:25 AM EDT
[#24]
Here's another one from the US Naval Institute that is a bit more dry and technical:
 The Decline of Russia and China |
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Posted: 12/21/2023 3:24:58 AM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted: how would China take taiwan if taiwan fortified their island? I mean, anti sub and ship mines, AA guns...arty...etc. "Elections". Much cheaper and even has the collateral benefit of many retards still believing "it was someone else's fault that they lost, but they will primary the opposition out next time."  |
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Posted: 12/21/2023 3:30:24 AM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Which is why the US has been more hawkish than ever before right? LOL Hawkish? What are you talking about? Pulling out of Afghanistan? Slow walking aid to Ukraine? (Compare it to the help we sent Israel during Yom Kippur). Letting the Houthis shut down global shipping lanes without response? Telling the Israelis to have a ceasefire? Letting our troops be attacked by Iranian proxies a hundred times and our response is to occasionally hit an empty warehouse? |
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Posted: 12/21/2023 3:37:12 AM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Fuck China Yeah, that'll do it. Just like the people that say fuck cancer, has or will that ever stop anything you don't like from happening? Realize the position we are in and prepare accordingly, that's all you can do for either. May as well say fuck gravity, oxygen or some other stupid shit. |
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Posted: 12/21/2023 4:31:38 AM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Come next year the USA will owe Taiwan close to 40 billion in weapons sales Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: A strong US President would then sell Taiwan some top notch US military equipment for their own defense against China. Come next year the USA will owe Taiwan close to 40 billion in weapons sales Maybe China wants to wait for those arms deliveries to Taiwan before they annex them. This admin is bluntly stupid enough to enable that plan. |
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Posted: 12/21/2023 4:59:21 AM EDT
[#29]
in 2023 the CSIS did war games on this and in 24 out of 24 scenarios the US Navy and their allies beat China's navy and protect Taiwan but the US Navy also loses 2 supercarriers (and all the 5000 soldiers and 60-90 aircraft per carrier) in 24 out of 24 scenarios:
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4775256 This is because the US has 2 supercarriers within the Chinese coast strike range at all times, they know where they are, and can overwhelm the carrier strike group's missile defense magazines. This brings the full gravity of the US Navy, air force, and it's allies into the fight but at tremendous losses. China probably will even attack Guam... and remember Hawaii wasn't a state before Pearl Harbor. |
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Posted: 12/21/2023 5:31:41 AM EDT
[#30]
If Xi thinks Taiwan would "surrender" to China peacefully then why not "surrender" to the USA instead.
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Posted: 12/21/2023 7:41:57 AM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It's ramping up. There are several issues preventing immediate and apparent progress. Fiscal years and planning. Shit that happens this year was probably planned last year, using the information available then. Going from 5 of something to 50 of something, or however you want to scale it, is difficult if historically the expectation has been 5. Introducing the capability, expanding the infrastructure whatever to increase production will take time. This trickles down too. Not only are you expecting 10x final product, but every source of material to fab it is getting hammered with increased demand. Now that next link that provides the prime with materials is taking additional time to up their production, a year after the requirement was funded. It's ramping. I doubt we will see anything substantial before 2025 though. Some surprises exist, like the Coyote C-UAS system that the Army funded. Expected delivery FY25, so essentially calendar year 2026 will be first deliveries, and the contract goes to 2029 for full delivery of the order. Now imagine if the war in Ukraine didn't happen and this expansion started only after China started a war with the United States. |
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Posted: 12/21/2023 10:12:19 AM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That's the one positive I see from the Ukraine situation. It have us more runway to get production up to speed. Of course we'll dick it up politically somehow. Of course. If budgets don't get passed by congress then it all stalls out, if a CR is being passed long enough then planned acquisitions just have to be moved to the following FY. I think that is the largest risk, followed by inappropriate acquisitions. I don't know yet how the Navy makes decisions, but sometimes it feels like they have kindergartners deciding what weapon systems we should procure. |
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Posted: 12/21/2023 10:14:51 AM EDT
[#33]
BS
I seriously doubt that ever happened. Put the sanctions currently on Russia on China and Xi is long gone. China cannot feed, fuel, or power itself without massive imports. |
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Posted: 12/21/2023 1:12:30 PM EDT
[#34]
Possible when the USA is weak, in decline, compromised and behind..
The world will no longer respect or fear the USA and adversaries and others will take full advantage of the global power restructuring. |
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Posted: 12/22/2023 12:28:22 AM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted: @Zoinks always told me "Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence." Honestly I have no idea, the bottlenecks could be due to the pandemic that didn't subside until 2022 and it the labor issues we have or poor planning or prioritizing certain shared components for Ukraine. At this time I can say with certainty anything but Taiwan is buying 19 billion MORE weapons from us in 2024 on top of the past 19 billion owed. Unless China never attacks or takes it's sweet time, this doesn't bode well and due to air defense shortage now Japan may end up assisting Ukraine because our own air defense situation for Patriots is I adequate. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: @CarmelBytheSea The question is, Do you think the weapons delay is intentional? @Zoinks always told me "Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence." Honestly I have no idea, the bottlenecks could be due to the pandemic that didn't subside until 2022 and it the labor issues we have or poor planning or prioritizing certain shared components for Ukraine. At this time I can say with certainty anything but Taiwan is buying 19 billion MORE weapons from us in 2024 on top of the past 19 billion owed. Unless China never attacks or takes it's sweet time, this doesn't bode well and due to air defense shortage now Japan may end up assisting Ukraine because our own air defense situation for Patriots is I adequate. Anyway, it is hard to say what is exactly going on with any of the weapon systems manufacturing in this Country as a whole. DOD isn't getting their orders in on time or on budget as well. That's going to have a cascading effect in any weapons that were supposed to be transferred from US hands to other countries, for example. Everything is pretty much a fuckin' mess as it relates to manufacturing in this country as a whole. The Clinton years was all about "off-shoring," but those Obama years really changed everything. As the question is specifically asked of Taiwan, I will say with 100% surety that it's very convenient for the Biden Admin to be able to say "sure, we sell weapons to them...that'll take years to deliver!" This way they can placate the PRC while showing the less powerful Countries that the US can have their backs...sort of. Saudi Arabia has already started buying weapons from the Euros and the Russians due to its lack of trust of the US. I expect more Countries to do the same to do the same especially if there's another dem in the White House. I would figure that Taiwan would like to do the same as the Saudis, but they don't have the money or clout like the Saudis do to make a deal with the Europeans and risk the petty anger of the US. |
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Posted: 12/22/2023 12:35:20 AM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Hawkish? What are you talking about? Pulling out of Afghanistan? Slow walking aid to Ukraine? (Compare it to the help we sent Israel during Yom Kippur). Letting the Houthis shut down global shipping lanes without response? Telling the Israelis to have a ceasefire? Letting our troops be attacked by Iranian proxies a hundred times and our response is to occasionally hit an empty warehouse? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Which is why the US has been more hawkish than ever before right? LOL Hawkish? What are you talking about? Pulling out of Afghanistan? Slow walking aid to Ukraine? (Compare it to the help we sent Israel during Yom Kippur). Letting the Houthis shut down global shipping lanes without response? Telling the Israelis to have a ceasefire? Letting our troops be attacked by Iranian proxies a hundred times and our response is to occasionally hit an empty warehouse? Bless your heart for trying |
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Posted: 12/31/2023 5:49:27 PM EDT
[#37]
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Posted: 12/31/2023 6:15:06 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote History |
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Posted: 1/2/2024 2:40:37 AM EDT
[#39]
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Posted: 1/2/2024 2:52:41 AM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted: in 2023 the CSIS did war games on this and in 24 out of 24 scenarios the US Navy and their allies beat China's navy and protect Taiwan but the US Navy also loses 2 supercarriers (and all the 5000 soldiers and 60-90 aircraft per carrier) in 24 out of 24 scenarios: https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4775256 This is because the US has 2 supercarriers within the Chinese coast strike range at all times, they know where they are, and can overwhelm the carrier strike group's missile defense magazines. This brings the full gravity of the US Navy, air force, and it's allies into the fight but at tremendous losses. China probably will even attack Guam... and remember Hawaii wasn't a state before Pearl Harbor. Kinda pointless exercise. If we have two carriers sunk we are destroying all Chinese military infrastructure….not just navy (aka Nukes fly). |
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Posted: 1/2/2024 4:48:45 AM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Kinda pointless exercise. If we have two carriers sunk we are destroying all Chinese military infrastructure….not just navy (aka Nukes fly). Maybe. Maybe not. But the Chinese know this and "Rear Admiral Lou Yuan has told an audience in Shenzhen that the ongoing disputes over the ownership of the East and South China Seas could be resolved by sinking two US super carriers." "'What the United States fears the most is taking casualties,' Admiral Lou declared. He said the loss of one super carrier would cost the US the lives of 5000 service men and women. Sinking two would double that toll. 'We'll see how frightened America is.'" https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/sink-two-aircraft-carriers-chinese-admirals-chilling-recipe-to-dominate-the-south-china-sea/HO5JSM3GSEYPF43NXV3BOJTR3E/ So, clearly our deterrence posture hasn't deterred all military minds in China. They also would likely attack Guam, and remember Hawaii/Pear Harbor wasn't a state before getting attacked. |
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Posted: 1/2/2024 7:34:36 AM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Those in China do no manufacture 5nm or 3 nm. China currently boasts a domestic break of 7nm. China makes old tech, South Korea and Taiwan provide new shit. I find it strange that you’re trying to characterize China as a leader in microchips. No nation - Germany, Netherlands, Britain, USA, Japan or anyone shares what you’re describing. No authority subject matter experts such as Chris Miller agree with what you’re claiming. Absolutely 100% correct. It's been proven China cannot make the top of the line microchips. Reason #5 they will never physically invade. Their economy depends on Taiwan's chips as much as anybody else. |
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Posted: 1/2/2024 5:10:34 PM EDT
[#43]
 “There’s Potential For A World War” Former NATO Commander On Potential Of Totalitarian Regimes |
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Posted: 1/2/2024 6:01:04 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryThanks for posting this, CarmelBytheSea. A solid and highly relevant analysis. I can't disagree with the former NATO commander's opinion. |
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Posted: 1/13/2024 5:26:58 AM EDT
[#45]
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Posted: 1/13/2024 7:03:32 AM EDT
[#46]
Quote History |
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Posted: 1/13/2024 7:34:30 AM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted: DPP is the one that Xi doesn't want to win correct? https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/taiwan-presidential-election-results-china-polls-trfkffvl2  Attached File Attached File Attached File |
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Posted: 1/13/2024 7:41:18 AM EDT
[#48]
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Posted: 1/13/2024 8:00:53 AM EDT
[#49]
How does the election work? Simple most votes wins or does one have to get over 50%? Likely requiring a runoff.
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Posted: 1/13/2024 8:20:11 AM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted: How does the election work? Simple most votes wins or does one have to get over 50%? Likely requiring a runoff. Most votes |
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