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Link Posted: 9/15/2009 7:16:06 PM EDT
[#1]
Two.
Link Posted: 9/15/2009 7:16:15 PM EDT
[#2]
Link Posted: 9/15/2009 7:16:51 PM EDT
[#3]
Wow
Link Posted: 9/15/2009 7:19:55 PM EDT
[#4]
In for the new thread. I thought that if gold stayed high as in above 1K something was supposed to happen.
Link Posted: 9/15/2009 7:19:56 PM EDT
[#5]
When is there a movie comming out?
Link Posted: 9/15/2009 7:23:07 PM EDT
[#6]
Quoted:
Wow, still going!

Okay, here's a question from a someone who is trying to understand, why is gold at a record close of $1,005 today? I thought (very untrained) that gold was an inverse indicator, i.e. if the economy was good then gold was fairly low priced. And that if gold was on an upward trend then usually inflation was on the way up and the economy on the way down, was that just a theory?





Gold is not really "up"  the Dollars down.    Gold is a classic inflation hedge, because it retains it's value.   It has been considered money since the beginning of recorded history, and it will continue to be a medium of exchange until someone finds a way to create it cheaply.  

It is susceptible to normal supply and demand curves, but over time, it is a remarkably stable store of wealth.  
Link Posted: 9/15/2009 7:25:29 PM EDT
[#7]
Quoted:
In for the new thread. I thought that if gold stayed high as in above 1K something was supposed to happen.


Why?  Gold has been WAY higher before in adjusted dollars.   What are you referring to?
Link Posted: 9/15/2009 7:26:33 PM EDT
[#8]
Link Posted: 9/15/2009 7:28:13 PM EDT
[#9]
Quoted:
Been waiting for Part III to drop this...

The Greatest Sucker's Rally In History, Play By Play



So much too read, so little time. Well, until tomorrow. I'm sure I've read this tale before, but from a different author. I've never seen articles from the 1930's, which according to this write up, is the mirror to our state of being right now. Those look interesting.

Link Posted: 9/15/2009 7:56:10 PM EDT
[#10]
Part 3, still no one in prison for fucking over the entire system, still no idea where the Tax payer bail out money went, still not even a peak into the fed, Too Big to Fail banks are even BIGGER, no new regulations to stop another massive implosion from the risky investments big firms are making, FDIC basically out of money and small banks are failing on a regular basis, unemployment is still rising, there are 6 people for every 1 job opening, but fuck it, the "recession is likely over."
Link Posted: 9/15/2009 7:59:51 PM EDT
[#11]
Link Posted: 9/15/2009 9:25:08 PM EDT
[#12]
Great thread!!!

In for Part 3

Thanx  for keeping this going!
Link Posted: 9/15/2009 9:25:50 PM EDT
[#13]
I'm in part 3
Link Posted: 9/15/2009 9:25:59 PM EDT
[#14]
Quoted:





When is there a movie comming out?




You're in it.

We're all in the movie,

FINANCHERNOBYL: The Meltdown, Can It Be Stopped In Time?


...will it, -can it, end well


Link Posted: 9/15/2009 9:41:28 PM EDT
[#15]
In for more waiting.
Link Posted: 9/15/2009 9:58:42 PM EDT
[#16]
do we have an estimated time of arrival for when bad is comin'?  let me guess....two months? and two months after that.  and two more months after that.  If it's coming, please just let it get here so that I can stop the soul crushing job search process.
Link Posted: 9/15/2009 10:24:46 PM EDT
[#17]

U.S. credit card defaults up, signal consumer stress

Tue Sep 15, 2009 5:04pm EDT






   


NEW YORK (Reuters) - Bank of America Corp and Citigroup Inc
customers defaulted on their credit card debts in August at the highest
rates since the onset of the recession, a sign that the banks' consumer
lending woes are far from over.


   


The trend was echoed among most other major credit card issuers,
dashing optimism sparked when many banks and specialty finance
companies reported lower default rates for July.


   


"People have gotten very bullish with the July data, and (the August
data) raises the question about how fast the consumer will get better,"
said Scott Valentin, an analyst at FBR Capital Markets. "People were
assuming the pace would be pretty rapid, and this maybe slows the pace
down."


   


The worse-than-expected August numbers bolstered the contention of
some analysts that the July decline in defaults was due more to
seasonal effects, like tax refunds, then an improvement in consumers'
financial health.


   


Many analysts expect bad-loan levels will keep rising until later this year or early 2010.


   


"The defaults are a wake-up call for those expecting a V-shaped
recovery," said Elliot Spar, options market strategist at Stifel
Nicolaus & Co.


   


Bank of America said its charge off-rate –– loans the company does
not expect to be repaid –– rose to 14.54 percent in August from 13.81
percent in July.


   


Citigroup, the largest issuer of MasterCard-branded credit cards,
said its charge-off rate rose to 12.14 percent in August from 10.03
percent in July.


   


The charge-off rates for both Citi and Bank of America, two of the
biggest recipients of U.S. government bailouts, were the highest yet
during the financial crisis.


   


JPMorgan Chase & Co, the largest issuer of Visa-branded credit
cards, said its charge-off rate rose to 8.73 percent from 7.92 percent,
while smaller Discover Financial Services said its rate rose to 9.16
percent from 8.43 percent.


   


American Express Co's default rate fell to 8.5 percent from 8.9 percent as the company increased its lending portfolio.


   


JPMorgan, Discover and Capital One Financial Corp reported late
payments on credit cards –– an indicator of future defaults –– rose in
August after several monthly declines.


   


Valentin said the rise in delinquencies at some companies was double or triple the levels expected.


   


NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET


   

Credit card defaults usually track unemployment, which rose to a
26-year high of 9.7 percent in August. The jobless rate is expected to
peak at more than 10 percent by year-end.




Considering the trend of unemployment and the increase in
delinquencies, analysts have estimated credit card losses will keep
rising in coming months.


   


Yet analysts have a rosier outlook now than they did a few months
ago, expecting credit-card defaults to bottom out at an average of 11
percent to 12 percent, below earlier estimates of up to 14 percent.


   


As credit card losses rose to record highs in recent months, credit
card companies closed millions of accounts, trimmed lending limits and
slashed rewards.


   


Lenders are also raising fees and interest rates ahead of a new law
that increases protection for consumers. The law is expected to shrink
the industry and limit subprime borrowers' access to plastic money.


   


Also on Tuesday, MasterCard Inc, the world's second-largest credit
card network, said the volume of payments it processed in the United
States declined less in July and August than in the second quarter, a
sign that the payments industry may be stabilizing.


   


Shares of Bank of America fell 0.5 percent to $16.89 in afternoon
trade, JPMorgan declined 0.7 percent to $43.45, Discover was 0.7
percent lower at $14.92, and Citigroup dropped 6.6 percent to $4.22.


   


Capital One declined 3 percent to $37.16, and American Express was up 1.8 percent to $34.54.


   


(Reporting by Juan Lagorio, additional reporting by Ryan Vlastelica; Editing by John Wallace)

















Link Posted: 9/15/2009 10:54:47 PM EDT
[#18]
Quoted:
In for more waiting.




Link Posted: 9/16/2009 12:34:26 AM EDT
[#19]
Revealed: The ghost fleet of the recession






The
biggest and most secretive gathering of ships in maritime history lies
at anchor east of Singapore. Never before photographed, it is bigger
than the U.S. and British navies combined but has no crew, no cargo and
no destination  -  and is why your Christmas stocking may be on the
light side this year













 
Link Posted: 9/16/2009 1:19:26 AM EDT
[#20]
9/16/09

All goods and services abundantly available for a cheap price.

No depression, probably either no or very mild recession.

Plenty of jobs in the newspaper, even though unemployment at 9% or so.

So when is all this "sky is falling" going to happen again?  2012?  2015? by 2050?  Maybe by 2525?
Link Posted: 9/16/2009 2:19:20 AM EDT
[#21]
Quoted:
Revealed: The ghost fleet of the recession

Thebiggest and most secretive gathering of ships in maritime history liesat anchor east of Singapore. Never before photographed, it is biggerthan the U.S. and British navies combined but has no crew, no cargo andno destination  -  and is why your Christmas stocking may be on thelight side this year


http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2009/09/08/article-1212013-06435781000005DC-710_634x403.jpg
 


Revealed?

There was stories on this starting in 2008.  Hardly a big secret.

And Singapore is a good place for them to wait out until traffic picks up.  Good infrastructure and maintanence facilities, out of the typhoon zone and close to where they will need to go when they do get orders.

P.S.  There is about 300 ships waiting in Rotterdam also.  Find a pic of them and post it.
Link Posted: 9/16/2009 3:29:06 AM EDT
[#22]
This thread is relevant to my interests.
Link Posted: 9/16/2009 3:48:27 AM EDT
[#23]
Quoted:
9/16/09

All goods and services abundantly available for a cheap price.

No depression, probably either no or very mild recession.

Plenty of jobs in the newspaper, even though unemployment at 9% or so.

So when is all this "sky is falling" going to happen again?  2012?  2015? by 2050?  Maybe by 2525?


You and all your friends are well off.....so that must mean everything is fine.

Brilliant!

Great! Why don't you be useful and offer your keys to this paradise to the others on here who, for no fault of their own, are struggling? I am not joking....

I would love to hear your personal wealth story......you could be inspiration for the rest of us
Link Posted: 9/16/2009 4:07:27 AM EDT
[#24]
Quoted:
do we have an estimated time of arrival for when bad is comin'?  let me guess....two months? and two months after that.  and two more months after that.  If it's coming, please just let it get here so that I can stop the soul crushing job search process.


It sounds like "bad" already found you.  Best of luck on your job search!

It is the cumulative effect of what has happened to you, along with all of the fraud (that hasn't caught up with the market yet because the government keeps backstopping them) that I guess what people are anticipating.  I am expecting a bank run or two in the not-too-distant future.
Link Posted: 9/16/2009 4:09:55 AM EDT
[#25]
in
Link Posted: 9/16/2009 4:10:14 AM EDT
[#26]
Rambling Thoughts on Gold

By way of background, I buy up gold and silver at scrap price from desperate housewives.  Friends of friends, gals at the gym.  Women who bought jewelry on credit cards, and now are in a condition of quiet desperation.  I have to respect someone who will sell her jewelry before she sells her ass.  Yes, I can be considered a vulture, but it is an honest business transaction.

Hoarding gold is about FEAR.  It is intensely PRIMAL.

Our ancestors have done it since the beginning of civilisation.  Used to be, people wore their wealth visibly.  Now we bury it in safes and safe deposit boxes.

Is scrap gold making me wealthy?  No, not at all.  Does it help me sleep calmly at night.  Yes, definitely so.

Because I know that while America and Europe are declining, India, China, and Brazil are rising.  

Those civilisations far away are full of people who both want to enjoy wearing gold, AND who are not lulled into a false sense of security about their economy.  

There will always be a market for gold.  Sure, it may go down.  I look for it to dip as low as $800 within the next couple of years, as more and more desperate Americans have to sell it off.

Could the day come when I would be among them?  Possibly.  Then I would still have handfuls of something worth something.

Will it ride around 1k for a while?  Sure.  With some thrilling bumps.  I see it settling around $1,200.

Some of us want our assets to go forth and multiply.  I am not among them now.  All I want to do is sleep well at night.

Some people still feel like "investing" in our "economy".  Me?  I am hiding from it, in a backwater, quietly detached from it.  Gold and silver are not the only "life raft", but for some of us, they give a sense of calm confidence, come what may.

Link Posted: 9/16/2009 4:16:50 AM EDT
[#27]
Check out the August container traffic report from Port of Long Beach


Here...ouch!


Link Posted: 9/16/2009 4:20:43 AM EDT
[#28]
Tagscribe.

Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile
Link Posted: 9/16/2009 5:27:45 AM EDT
[#29]
Link Posted: 9/16/2009 5:31:29 AM EDT
[#30]
In for more delicious badness.

Link Posted: 9/16/2009 5:42:32 AM EDT
[#31]
Quoted:
Didn't you hear?  The recession is (likely) over!


and according to the Messiah in Chief, the Stimulus is actually working!

thank god we avoided a deep recession/depression and that the $780 some odd billion dollars is actually helping! it's odd though, overall cosumer confidence is still low, banks are still failing, the commercial realestate market is about to implode, residential (new homes) market is still stagnet, job losses are increasing each and every day, man oh man I'm glad the stimulus is working, we're sitting pretty now!
Link Posted: 9/16/2009 6:06:35 AM EDT
[#32]
27% of mortgage modifications result in higher payments, 90% in higher principal, 25-40% are re-defaulting

Tens of thousands of financially strapped homeowners who have asked lenders to lower their mortgage payments are instead winding up with higher monthly payments and larger debts on their homes.

Homeowners who were hoping for lower payments are discovering to their dismay that lenders roll late fees, back taxes or other costs into the principal, sometimes turning a difficult payment into an impossible one. That is one reason that many reworked mortgages are sliding back into default.

It's too early to know if this pattern will continue under the Obama administration's $75 billion initiative to get lenders to reduce monthly payments for homeowners struggling to make their mortgages. A total of 360,165 mortgage modifications are now in a three-month trial period under the government's plan announced in March. But the initiative focuses on reducing interest rates rather than cutting principal, which has been found to be one of the most effective modifications for helping homeowners avoid defaulting a second time (known as a "re-default").

Of loans modified from Jan. 1, 2008, through March 31, 2009, monthly payments increased on 27% and were left unchanged on an additional 27.5%, according to a recent report by banking regulators. Many modified mortgages fall delinquent — 25% to 40%, depending on the type of mortgage — often because of homeowners' loss of income or additional outstanding debt, according to a report last month by CreditSights, a financial research firm.

"Payments have gone up …. (and) the payment relief can last for the first few years and then go up (again)," says Alan White, assistant professor of law at the Valparaiso University School of Law in Valparaiso, Ind. He has studied the subprime mortgage situation for 10 years. "(The lenders) focus on today and not on the future." Even under the Obama plan, they don't focus on permanent debt reduction, White says.

The majority of borrowers who've gotten mortgage modifications have seen their overall principal balance go up, according to an analysis by CreditSights and ICP of about 660,000 mortgages modified this year. In about 90% of the modifications, the principal balance after a modification was larger, CreditSights said...

That's the situation facing Samantha and Steve Jensen. When the couple bought their $550,000 home in Scottsdale, Ariz., six years ago, they thought they'd found the perfect place to raise their three children.

But when their adjustable-rate mortgage reset to a higher rate, they could no longer afford the monthly payments that jumped by about $1,000 a month, to $3,300. So they were relieved when their bank in June offered to modify their mortgage by lowering their interest rate.

Under the modification they were to pay $2,600 a month — but then they discovered they also had unpaid property taxes. Once the bank added taxes to their principal, they say, their monthly mortgage payment grew to $3,500. They got a modification in June and are now two months behind on their mortgage payments and facing possible foreclosure.

"The bank could have done more and reduced our principal," says Samantha, 40, a special education teacher. "You have the anticipation of relief and then you realize it's not going to make it better. It's like being punched in the stomach twice."


Link Posted: 9/16/2009 6:08:24 AM EDT
[#33]
ost
Link Posted: 9/16/2009 6:13:34 AM EDT
[#34]
Quoted:

27% of mortgage modifications result in higher payments, 90% in higher principal, 25-40% are re-defaulting



"The bank could have done more and reduced our principal," says Samantha, 40, a special education teacher. "You have the anticipation of relief and then you realize it's not going to make it better. It's like being punched in the stomach twice."



Reduction of principal to these unthinking loan signatories makes the bank an agent of socialism.

I deposit money in a bank, expecting two things:

1)  Security of my deposited asset, and
2)  At least a possibility of earning some interest.  Which ain't happening.  But I am willing to forego it for the moment.

What needs to happen, by Natural Law, is for the bank to foreclose, the price of the house to fall, and somebody like me –– who has foregone immediate gratification –– scarf it up ultra cheap –– like for back taxes.

Ain't much Natural Law goin on round here these days.

And Natual Law always prevails... eventually.



Link Posted: 9/16/2009 6:19:21 AM EDT
[#35]




Quoted:





What needs to happen, by Natural Law, is for the bank to foreclose, the price of the house to fall, and somebody like me –– who has foregone immediate gratification –– scarf it up ultra cheap –– like for back taxes.



Ain't much Natural Law goin on round here these days.



And Natual Law always prevails... eventually.












I'm convinced that everyone is a socialist now.  As long as the government is giving to them, it's ok.



Delayed gratification.
 That's for suckas!





Link Posted: 9/16/2009 6:42:22 AM EDT
[#36]




Quoted:

Rambling Thoughts on Gold



<snip>





Thanks for this psyops! I also need to thank you for some advice you gave me back at the start of II which was to start buying up gold/silver from folks around me. Thanks - I really appreciate you!




ETA: I have been talking to my wife about inviting some of her friends over for a 'Gold party' with wine and cheese yadda yadda. Before we do so do you have advice or a link to where to get advice on how to calculate worth of items they have? Do you use electronic scales, etc? If you could email me or even post here I'd be very much appreciative! Thanks!
Link Posted: 9/16/2009 6:45:59 AM EDT
[#37]



Silver is up too, but hey what do we know, we are just precious metal nuts............





 
Link Posted: 9/16/2009 6:54:34 AM EDT
[#38]
Quoted:

Quoted:
Rambling Thoughts on Gold

<snip>


Thanks for this psyops! I also need to thank you for some advice you gave me back at the start of II which was to start buying up gold/silver from folks around me. Thanks - I really appreciate you!

ETA: I have been talking to my wife about inviting some of her friends over for a 'Gold party' with wine and cheese yadda yadda. Before we do so do you have advice or a link to where to get advice on how to calculate worth of items they have? Do you use electronic scales, etc? If you could email me or even post here I'd be very much appreciative! Thanks!


Simple math.   This will get you going:

http://www.wikihow.com/Calculate-the-Value-of-Scrap-Gold

You can find digital gram scales on ebay anywhere from $10.00 on up.

But I would caution against holding a "gold and silver party" at home.  Desperate people do not need to know where you live.  Not necessarily the gals who would come to your home, but friends of theirs.

Meet at someplace like a gym, a restaurant, or even a library etc in an upscale neighborhood.  She could give out business cards with nothing on them but an email address.

I do not see paying anything over scrap metal value now.  If your wife comes up with jewelry that has precious stones or is antique, she can sell it on ebay (although the market is way down for stones, antique jewelry).

PM me if you want my email address, and your wife and I can correspond.

Link Posted: 9/16/2009 6:57:00 AM EDT
[#39]



Link Posted: 9/16/2009 7:00:47 AM EDT
[#40]
Quoted:
Quoted:

Quoted:
Rambling Thoughts on Gold

<snip>


Thanks for this psyops! I also need to thank you for some advice you gave me back at the start of II which was to start buying up gold/silver from folks around me. Thanks - I really appreciate you!

ETA: I have been talking to my wife about inviting some of her friends over for a 'Gold party' with wine and cheese yadda yadda. Before we do so do you have advice or a link to where to get advice on how to calculate worth of items they have? Do you use electronic scales, etc? If you could email me or even post here I'd be very much appreciative! Thanks!


Simple math.   This will get you going:

http://www.wikihow.com/Calculate-the-Value-of-Scrap-Gold

You can find digital gram scales on ebay anywhere from $10.00 on up.

But I would caution against holding a "gold and silver party" at home.  Desperate people do not need to know where you live.  Not necessarily the gals who would come to your home, but friends of theirs.

Meet at someplace like a gym, a restaurant, or even a library etc in an upscale neighborhood.  She could give out business cards with nothing on them but an email address.

I do not see paying anything over scrap metal value now.  If your wife comes up with jewelry that has precious stones or is antique, she can sell it on ebay (although the market is way down for stones, antique jewelry).

PM me if you want my email address, and your wife and I can correspond.



Stones would be a gamble unless you are a gemologist, but dimaonds have traditionally been a fairly secure way to hold  and transport wealth.  You could realistically transport hundreds of thousands of dollars in your pocket if you needed to.
Link Posted: 9/16/2009 7:17:03 AM EDT
[#41]
While the dollar's value, compared to gold and foreign currency, had flattened out over the last three months, last week's drop in dollar values versus gold seems to have re-ignited an inflationary trend in place since early summer.

Depending on what you measure it against, the dollar is inflating at rates between 1 and 2 percent per month, on a 6 month period.

If you have dollar assets that need to be protected against inflation, and have a well thought out plan in place to do this, now may be the time to begin executing it. At the very least, its something you should be watching closely.
Link Posted: 9/16/2009 7:22:04 AM EDT
[#42]
Link Posted: 9/16/2009 7:31:14 AM EDT
[#43]
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/332707/Next-Leg-Down-Will-Be-%22More-Painful-Than-The-Last%22-Pento-Says?tickers=dia,spy,^djia,^gspc,gld,gdx,tbt&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=

This guy has it 100% correct as to why there is currently a stock market rally; there simply is NO PLACE ELSE TO PUT YOUR MONEY.

This has been my thinking and the reason I personally went from 75% invested in equities to 25% invested last September; I strongly believe any rally faces imminent collapse.

When interest rates return to appropriate levels; Humpty Dumpty is gonna' fall.

I may be wrong; but that's the financial gamble I'm making myself.

Next Leg Down Will Be "More Painful Than The Last," Pento Says

Posted Sep 16, 2009 08:00am EDT by Peter Gorenstein in Investing, Recession
Related: dia, spy, ^djia, ^gspc, gld, gdx, tbt

Puzzled by the strength and duration of the stock market rally? Michael Pento, chief economist at Delta Global Advisors, says it all makes perfect sense. "If the Federal Reserve is going to pay you less than 1% to deposit your savings... what are you going to do with that money?" Hence, the rally off the March lows.

Unfortunately for investors, Pento argues the rally is meaningless because our "purchasing power… is eroding everyday" as the U.S. dollar continues to lose value. "You can't sit back and say since the S&P (500) is up over 50% that happy days are here again," he protests.  "You have to look at it in real terms."

To put it in perspective:  Pento claims, "if you bought the S&P 500 on December 31, 1999 you're down 50%, in terms of U.S. dollars." And next to gold, the comparison is even worse, "you're down 79% in the last 10 years. It's no wonder why investor feel they're under the weather," he says.

So what's an investor to do?

He recommends buying hard assets like gold as a hedge on inflation. (A topic we discuss in detail in a forthcoming segment.)

And, if you own stocks, stay long, until the Federal Reserve starts raising rates "aggressively," Pento suggests. "When they do raise interest rates, since the debt of the nation is growing at a 4.1% annual rate, the next time down is going to be much more painful than the last."

Let's hope either he's wrong about the market's fate or the Fed's ability to manage its exit strategy.
Link Posted: 9/16/2009 7:43:16 AM EDT
[#44]
Link Posted: 9/16/2009 7:58:51 AM EDT
[#45]
I was going thru boxes of old receipts looking for something yesterday, and found a receipt from when I bought a dozen Silver Eagles in 2003 –– for under $7.50 apiece.  Now they go for almost $20.
Link Posted: 9/16/2009 8:07:38 AM EDT
[#46]
Link Posted: 9/16/2009 8:15:05 AM EDT
[#47]
Link Posted: 9/16/2009 8:28:20 AM EDT
[#48]
Quoted:
1,010 families - including more than 1,400 children - are now living inmotels, at a monthly cost of about $2.8 million for taxpayers


That's only Boston. How many other states do that?
Link Posted: 9/16/2009 8:29:27 AM EDT
[#49]




Quoted:





AWESOME! Thank you so much!
Link Posted: 9/16/2009 8:30:03 AM EDT
[#50]
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