Bravo.

This plus you never really own your home free & clear. There are property taxes to pay and they go up all the time. Then there is up keep. If you're up to your eyeballs in bills and the septic system, or some other expensive thing crashes you're screwed. It helps if you're handy but that only goes just so far

OPPRESSOR!


j/k

I wouldn't.  If you think things are bad now, it's getting worse.  Buying a house will tie down your assets and that's not something good in troubled times.  Hang onto your precious metals.  Forty-two coins don't weight all that much (less than three pounds) so you can carry your wealth if necessary.

I would, if you are going to need transactable money instead of a volatile savings plan but you better hurry.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/IMF-to-sell-gold-to-boost-lending/articleshow/5029572.cms

The IMF is ready to drop 14 Million oz on the market, this has the potential to bust the gold bubble which is sitting at a 136 year high.  I would not buy any right now though.

Thanks for the heads up.

My general line of thinking for the near future is buy like crazy if it drops below $850, sell off some if it hits $1,250.

YMMV, subject to change according to phases of the moon.

That might be my strategy too. I would step into that market under those circumstances.

I might be crazy, might just be me.  Meh what do I know.  Im sure there'll be enough fools to keep it going around and keep the price way inflated.  Unfortunately I feel the same way about real estate, except that's being propped up by gov intervention, not only slimy brain-dead investors.

I've already seen bad - I'm expecting worse shortly....

Well, okay.  Talk to us.

And I do not recognise the flag or the abbreviation "ABW" of where you are.

What is going on in your corner of the world?

Guess the ammo is gonna be hard to find for awhile .....until gold stops dropping at least.

I wonder if now is the time to jump in Silver, since it will likely see an artificial rise due to the IMF gold sale.

No, it's not.

When grain prices go up, farm land values / cash rent go up, input costs (seed, fertilizer, ect) go up & the profit margin stays about the same. And the price of farm machinery always goes up, no matter what. Sure there are some good years when markets go up & there's some extra profit because there is a little lag. But it doesn't last long, because there are idiots that go ahead & pay more for land than they should because they see extra bump in thier cash flow, thus driving up land values & there are jerks that just flat out ask more for thier land, because of the inflated grain prices (in other words, greed kicks in, on both sides).

And that's how farming has always been, nothing new, no gloom & doom. Profit margins over the years average out about the same. The secret to getting ahead is to get by with as little as you can, as cheaply as you can, save in the good years so you can survive the bad & pay cash (yes, Dave Ramsey's principals work in farming too).

What's going on right now in farming is just a repeat of the late 1970s. Farmers were enjoying higher comodity prices, so they paid more for land, ect. And then when the market fell out in the early 1980s, there they were, stuck with mortgages for land that they bought when the land was over-inflated. It's going to happen again, and it's the main reason that I haven't gotten back into farming.

Aruba...........



 

Since the liar is playing the Hegel game of thesis, antithesis, synthesis, I'll submit this rather long article for your consideration. Looks like one manufactured crisis after the other. And the hits just keep on comin'.

http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/09/barack_obama_and_the_strategy.html

Groucho

This guy would have been called the ultimate tin foil kook in September of 08.

Now everything he wrote about is becoming part of the main stream little by little.




If this is really happening, can it be stopped?

There's only one thing wrong with James Simpson's thesis:


It wasn't Marxists who torpedoed the high finance sector of our nation's economy.

Oh, yes.





Man, it's good to be right.





Greenspan grudgingly concedes it, I (and folks like OdT) always knew it...

Not disagreeing with you there. It does appear that the system was overloaded, though and that is part of the supposed plan. Let's understand that I don't claim to be a sophisticated, deep thinker wise in the ways of the world. The problem I'm fighting is that many, if not all, of the pieces in that article seem to fit. That leads me to a troubling conclusion of a "plan". To have a plan, there has to be planners. That smacks of conspiricy and I'm not all that comfortable going there. OTOH, this whole mess could be a jumble of unrelated incidents with Obama and friends taking advantage. BTW, I consider Obana's friends to be Washingtonians. I've stopped looking at the world in donkey and elephant terms. Very liberating, but that's for another thread.
Thanks for your reply. I see what looks like a shimmer of good times coming again and don't know whether to believe it or stay in my mental bunker. Shit, at 62, a combat vet, father of two grown sons, and married to the same woman for 37 years, I find myself spooked by events. I've been around for the recessions from the 50's on and this one has a different feel to it. Not a good different.

Groucho

This chart of the nation's debt/GDP ratio is kind of interesting.  I think it's at odds with Dave_A's belief that the ratio should continue to increase and also kind of sobering regarding how many years it's going to take to pay off our debt. LINK

Aruba....

However, I've had this in the past 12 months:

Had my business in two countries go bankrupt thanks to unscrupulous suppliers selling directly against us and at a discount we could not match - very similar to Apple killing off all their dealer network.
Lost my house
Lost my car (actually 3 cars all paid for)
Had to declare personal bankruptcy
Had to leave the US due to bad advice from Fragomen, Del Rey, Bernsen and Loewy, LLP immigration lawyers - who I would not piss on if their balls were on fire. They happily took my money all the while they were fucking me over.
Can't get a job now I'm back in my home country - I'm an accountant and 200 -800 accountants are applying for every job I apply for. Can't even get a job as a cleaner, street sweeper or a driver etc etc

However, I did make sure all my employees were paid all their entitlements before the company was closed.

Luckily my parents are supportive or I would be on the street.

I'm currently fighting the liquidators of my company here as they also have fucked us over with a bunch of massive undisclosed fees.Those should have gone to the company's creditors - not into their pockets. They are refusing to divulge information when requested, stalling, and spinning a lot of bullshit.

I don't need sympathy but I believe it's hammer time....

tag for future use

I don't know what really means but I do know that the more of a product there is in the market, the less it is worth.

It also tells me that the big boys are aware that the gold market is experiencing a major bubble and looking to either cash out or keep the price of gold down below a certain level.

Why would they do this?  I have no idea but with all the strange stuff going on I would not be surprised at what the outcome is, just passing on the info.

Depending on the market, buying a house right now is the BEST decision you can make.

Buy low, (including interest rates, you will never see them this low again).

Approximately 12,956,753 Troy ounces.

14 million or 13 million whatever.

I didn't want to have to take my shoes off for the math.

dang, got to tag a new one

Regarding gold....

The IMF sale is a drop in the bucket when compared to the world demand for gold.  Gold is in very tight supply right now....it has been that way for the last 2 years or so.  China alone could buy it all up in a short period of time.  Also, there is no guarantee that the IMF sales will actually occur.  Most governments are now getting out of the dollar and are in the gold acquisition business.  , They will not sell their gold, even if they pledged to do so some time in the past.  NOTE:  The US and Britain, two of the most economically retarded countries on the face of the earth, may not act rationally.  They may actually try to sell some.....if they have any.  But so what.  There are plenty of buyers.  

Look at a long term chart of gold.  Gold is in a long term up trend.  Once in breaks decisively above 1028 or so, I believe it will sky rocket....just as it has done several times in the past.  Again,  look at a long term chart of gold.....gold stair steps upwards.  It often sits in a particular price range for years....then it rockets to the next level.  It has done that several times in the past.  We are in the early stage of it's next jump upwards.  As I said several months ago.....gold is acting like a coiled spring....building up power and energy for a MASSIVE upward correction.  I suspect that when this process happens again, gold will be at least $1300 and $1000 gold will be gone forever.  I suspect this will happen in the next few months.        

Want an interesting challenge?  Find out how many dollars there are in circulation.  That is called the M3 money supply.  Next find out how much gold is owned by the US Treasury.  Now divide that money supply by the number of ounces of gold.  That will tell you how high gold will rise if we fully back all our dollars by gold.  Post your number and show your work because no one here will believe what you come up with.....

Look at a long term chart of the dollar.  There is nothing good in that chart.  The dollar is going to head lower and lower and lower.  I can't figure out why anyone could possibly think otherwise.  GWB doubled the freaking money supply in 8 years.  Obongo has somewhat accelerated this.  I can't see how the dollar could possibly survive what those two asses have done to it.  Since gold moves inverse to the dollar, it must rise.        

Here is an interesting fact.....the large commercial banks have been shorting gold....not just a little but in VAST quantities on the COMEX.  Right now, because gold is so high, almost all of those short positions are losing money.  Sweet!  Contemporary wisdom says that these commercial interests are right....and that gold will fall.  Some of you seem to think this also.  Time will tell but I'm betting the commercial banks are wrong.  If I am right and gold continues to rise, then those shorts are going to continue to lose more and more money.  Eventually they will have to get out of their short positions.  That means they will be forced to buy gold.  That is caused a short squeeze.  When that happens and all those banksters are forced to become gold buyers....gold will skyrocket!  It will be wonderful to watch.  

None of us will be able to sit on the sidelines.  We are all going to be affected.  The destruction of the dollar is inevitable.  We have too much debt.  We don't produce enough.  Government is too big and refuses to reduce spending.  Besides, most of the people of this country are spoiled children and would refuse to see their favourite government program chopped anyway.  We are like a bankrupt family who goes on one last spending spree before their credit cards are cut off.  The time is fast approaching when we will not even be able to afford the interest payments on our debt.  This whole house of cards is getting real wobbly.  Someday it will collapse.    

Gentlemen, it is time to place your bets.  Either stay in dollars and ride them down or get into something safe.    

To the guy who has 40 oz of gold coins.....you will regret it if you sell those coins now.  Keep them.  As others have suggested, get them out of the safe deposit box and hide them somewhere.  They may be the only thing of value you own in a few years.  

If you have any questions, email me (don't use IM).

Chicago-area retail sales plunge $5.8 billion, or 11.5%, in first half of '09



http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/chi-fri-notebook-shopping-withdrsep18,0,5320410.story



Among the most stunning revelations: The $5.8 billion in lost local sales from January through June 2009 exceeded the $5.1 billion drop in Chicago-area sales for all of 2008, at the time a record, said John Melaniphy, who has been collecting Illinois retail sales data for the past 20 years. The pace of the sales decline accelerated in the second quarter of 2009, suggesting that the retail climate is getting worse, not better, he said.



"I tried to find something optimistic in these numbers and I can't," said Melaniphy, founder of the namesake consulting firm. "The pundits are talking about how we hit the bottom and now we're coming out of it. I don't see it."

This coming holiday season will be, for many retail concerns and associated businesses...

As it is always said.  As shitcago goes, so goes the nation.


Oh wait.


BTW, we have only seven days left.

Modus    Posted: 8/7/2009 2:19:36 PM EDT[Last Edit: 8/7/2009 2:29:24 PM EDT by modus]
What kind of business? If it's .gov that's expected as Obama pours funny money into economy. Car dealers are doing well right now too. Of course this is completely crazy and tragic for TANSTAASFL! Our currency, the US dollar, is hemorrhaging legitimacy and inability to service old debt at all levels or incur new debt is here.

I have pretty much said my peace in various posts.

We have about 50 days left.

Link

Ignoring philosophy, effects should be:

1. Increase pressure on fed and state budgets

2. Decrease SHTF zombie pressure

3. Prop up the bottom in consumer spending, at least thru holiday season

4. Tax increase or more inflation pressure

Depending on the market, buying a house right now is the BEST decision you can make.

Buy low, (including interest rates, you will never see them this low again).



"You can always refinance a high interest rate. You can never renegotiate a high purchase price."

Something a relative who owned over 100 rentals in Socal told me once.


Chris


ETA...I made a prediction that FHA is going to be a smoking hole in the RE market. They released their stats today..

22.9% of all FHA loans are either delinquent or in foreclosure.




Coming to a state near you...These guys are writing almost 50% of all loans.
These numbers are actually increasing.

Exactly Chris.

Sherrick, most of the time I'm mildly amused by the stuff you post, but encouraging our fellows to buy this market is just crazy.

We all know interest rates are determined by the fed and the banking system rather than any sort of market pricing mechanism, so there's no reason to expect mortgage rates to increase appreciably until after we start seeing some general price inflation, and/or price inflation in the housing market, the banks can't be expected to slit their own throats by raising rates and destroying their own equity when default rates are already at historic levels, it isn't going to happen for a while. We have a huge overhang of excess housing supply, plus the huge foreclosure overhang that we haven't yet begun to deal with, it's going to be years before we see another bull market in housing.

You're advocating catching a falling knife for no reason whatsoever IMO, I know YOU have been buying this market, and I wish you luck with it. Your local market may be an island unto itself for all I know, it certainly seems that way from your posts.

You couldn't talk me to leveraging myself into rental RE right now, even at a discount to supposed market pricing, there's just too many risks. There's no hard bottom on RE values so long as it's taxable, look at Detroit.

Long term view:

Retirement?  Good Luck With That


One of the last, great, untapped reserves of taxable cash is existing and future private retirement funds.

I 100% expect the feds to socialize new retirement savings during my productive years, the only question is whether they pull an Argentina and nationalize existing funds.  Smart money says yes, I think, but not for some time (Decades? Or merely years?).

In other short term news, people ain't buying:  Chicago area retail sales crash 11.5% first half of 09', nationally off 9.8%

You've been quiet for a while.  Glad you're back.

That is huge.  23% ?????  

My God....where's that hyper-contraction icon?  

Bernanke says it's all over.  Nothing but milk and honey ahead.

Milk and honey, smoke and mirrors, green shoots, doom and gloom it's all the same shit right now.  Call it what you want "sticks and stones may break my bones but words will never hurt me"  There's no stopping what's coming our way and well, you know the title of this thread.

Prepare.

FHA is gonna make AIG look cheap.  Right now AIG looks to be at ~190-200B. I will go on record and say FHA over the next few years will require much more than that. As of right now they only have 2% reserves...  

Chris

Market Ticker on FHA


I was going to post an excerpt but the charts wouldn't print. Just compare July to the August numbers. Still climbing.


CR article on foreclosures increasing


Article from CR


Monday, September 21, 2009
Report: Mortgage Delinquencies increase in August
by CalculatedRisk on 9/21/2009 11:09:00 AM
From Reuters: Mortgage Delinquencies Rise Alongside Unemployment (ht Ron Wallstreetpit)

Reuters reports that a record 7.58% of U.S. homeowners with mortgages were 30+ days delinquent in August, up from 7.32% in July ... and up from 4.89% in August 2008.

Reuters also notes that delinquencies are rising at "an accelerating pace".

This is one part of the coming "triple whammy" at the end of this year that Tom Lawler mentioned this morning: rising foreclosures, end of the Fed buying MBS, and the end of the housing tax credit.

We have to be a little careful with the delinquency numbers because they include homeowners in the trial period for modifications.

Note: This uses a different approach than the MBA. The MBA reported 9.24% of all loans outstanding were delinquent at the end of the 2nd quarter. Another 4.3% of loans were in the foreclosure process.




Yes,I see the FC's include modified loans. What is the redefault rate for mods...Oh like 45%(historical).
Give it time. Peak to bottom in Socal during the last bust took right 6-7 YEARS. In my opinion this is even worse.


Chris

Does anyone have a number on how many dollars FHA has loaned out or guaranteed?

I'm curious what 23% of that value is.

ETA:  it's a number that needs to be seen by EVERYONE.

HyperContracting SuperDepression Icon



Official Fiscal Year 2008 - 2009
Event Horizon Sucking Black Hole

There it is!

My google shows 700B. But I don't think that is correct. I don't want to speculate but if I remember correctly it is well north of that. I post up when I find out more.


Quote from a poster  over at Market Ticker.

HUD used to report delinquent FHA endorsements on the biweekly FHA Outlook report, but they stopped reporting delinquent endorsements in February 2009 after delinquent endorsements spike 48% in January. They FHA Outlook report contained delinquent endorsement data since the report started in 1998.

File that one under things that make you go WTF!!!



BTW,they have shown that it is pretty easy to get FHA qualified at a 61% back end ratio. I need to reread the thread but the math looked ok at a glance.


ETA...Excerpt from a good article dated last week...


The Ginnie Mae MBS market surged to $640 billion at the end of 2009's first quarter from $450 billion at the end of 2007. During the same time, Fannie Mae increased to $2.855 trillion from $2.259 trillion, while Freddie Mac grew to $1.819 trillion from $1.727 trillion, according to Arthur Frank, director and head of MBS research at Deutsche Bank Securities in New York.


Officially Ginnie Mae is the only one backed by the Gubmint. I can see the assholes bailing out the other two...

Full article...

Article on FHA





Chris