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Link Posted: 8/5/2024 10:32:11 AM EST
[Last Edit: Morgan321] [#1]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Enzo300:
OK then, how about a grocery store chain where I can "off ramp" BTC for some necessities?

BTC maxi's are great at arguing BTC's fine points, but to Joe down the street, it's still not working as intended. As long as there are 1000's of maxi's, and millions of Joe's, it's not going to go the way you say.
View Quote

This is the problem with bitcoin - it has become just another investment that you buy with dollars and sell for dollars.  Look at the news "bitcoin hits record high of $73k" - they only care about it in terms of dollars.
I would venture that many (most?) people who invest in bitcoin don't know that you can use it on your own without an exchange.  
For it to take off as a currency people will have to, wait for it..... start using it to buy/sell goods.  That may or may not ever happen on a significant basis - the world has never done this so everybody is guessing.  

Unless/until that happens it's just another commodity who's value is expressed in dollars.  The big difference is that it can't be manipulated like other commodities, the supply is finite, and nobody can stop you from using it.  
Link Posted: 8/5/2024 10:39:29 AM EST
[#2]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Morgan321:

This is the problem with bitcoin - it has become just another investment that you buy with dollars and sell for dollars.  Look at the news "bitcoin hits record high of $73k" - they only care about it in terms of dollars.
I would venture that many (most?) people who invest in bitcoin don't know that you can use it on your own without an exchange.  
For it to take off as a currency people will have to, wait for it..... start using it to buy/sell goods.  That may or may not ever happen on a significant basis - the world has never done this so everybody is guessing.  

Unless/until that happens it's just another commodity who's value is expressed in dollars.  The big difference is that it can't be manipulated like other commodities, the supply is finite, and nobody can stop you from using it.  
View Quote


But it isn't a commodity. Commodities are physical resources with uses, their financial markets being a secondary consideration.
Link Posted: 8/5/2024 10:47:38 AM EST
[#3]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By woodsie:


I've explained this dozens of times in this thread but I'll do it again.  

A)  For any currency to truly be decentralized, it must start at zero.  Any currency that launches with value is by definition centralized to some degree.

B)
 For any decentralized currency to truly be useful globally, it must have a market capitalization in the multiple trillions if you are using the USD as a benchmark for the sake of discussion.

Therefore:

C) For any decentralized currency to get from Point A to Point B, it is inevitably the case that there must be an extended period of time over which the market for it is built out by speculators.  On that point, thank you for your service.

If you can step back and see the big picture, then you would understand that we are potentially in the middle of a several decades long experiment in decentralized currency and you are trying to judge the results of the experiment long before it's actually completed.

This is not a Bitcoin maxi argument.  This is a broad argument regarding cryptocurrency or even perhaps some other future form of decentralized currency that we haven't even contemplated.  There is no rule that says that a future cryptocurrency which succeeds in global adoption has to be Bitcoin in the first place.  On the other hand, there is also no rule that says that Bitcoin can't serve as the value basis for some other derivative that ends up being the actual direct instrument of trade in this scenario.


View Quote View All Quotes
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Originally Posted By woodsie:
Originally Posted By Enzo300:
Originally Posted By woodsie:


If you want a bridge from a traditional system to a decentralized system, you are going to have to play by the rules of the traditional system.  It's like the Berlin Wall.  They built it to keep people in, not to keep people out.

The "KYC free" on ramp / off ramp from cryptocurrency looks like this:

On Ramp -> Build your own mining rig and convert electricity into cryptocurrency.

Off Ramp -> Spend your cryptocurrency directly on the stuff you actually want to buy rather than exchanging it for dollars.

Cryptocurrency wasn't invented with the idea of "off ramping" to USD.  That's something that wasn't even really contemplated until a couple years after the invention of Bitcoin.  The first legitimate Bitcoin value transaction was a year and a half after it was released and it was for pizza, not dollars.  Trading and speculation as we know it came even later than that.


OK then, how about a grocery store chain where I can "off ramp" BTC for some necessities?

BTC maxi's are great at arguing BTC's fine points, but to Joe down the street, it's still not working as intended. As long as there are 1000's of maxi's, and millions of Joe's, it's not going to go the way you say.

As a market with a lot of volatility, and some pretty good chart behavior, BTC works for me but it sure as hell isn't "money".


I've explained this dozens of times in this thread but I'll do it again.  

A)  For any currency to truly be decentralized, it must start at zero.  Any currency that launches with value is by definition centralized to some degree.

B)
 For any decentralized currency to truly be useful globally, it must have a market capitalization in the multiple trillions if you are using the USD as a benchmark for the sake of discussion.

Therefore:

C) For any decentralized currency to get from Point A to Point B, it is inevitably the case that there must be an extended period of time over which the market for it is built out by speculators.  On that point, thank you for your service.

If you can step back and see the big picture, then you would understand that we are potentially in the middle of a several decades long experiment in decentralized currency and you are trying to judge the results of the experiment long before it's actually completed.

This is not a Bitcoin maxi argument.  This is a broad argument regarding cryptocurrency or even perhaps some other future form of decentralized currency that we haven't even contemplated.  There is no rule that says that a future cryptocurrency which succeeds in global adoption has to be Bitcoin in the first place.  On the other hand, there is also no rule that says that Bitcoin can't serve as the value basis for some other derivative that ends up being the actual direct instrument of trade in this scenario.



Mostly wasted keystrokes, but you're spot on. The anti-crypto guys come in here and shit on it when there's a downturn, then disappear when we're pumping. They don't understand it, nor do they care to see the error of their mentality, or admit they're wrong.

It's a bizarre cognitive dissonance with them. They claim to love freedom, and hate cancel culture, censorship, and corruption.  However they also decry DeFi, which is truly free. No censorship, no blacklisting. Transactions are immutable and irreversible.  Everything's public and verifiable so corruption and criminality are far more difficult to conceal.

It is the "dangerous freedom" so many claim to prefer, in contrast to the "peaceful slavery" that is TradFi.
Link Posted: 8/5/2024 10:52:17 AM EST
[#4]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Morgan321:

This is the problem with bitcoin - it has become just another investment that you buy with dollars and sell for dollars.  Look at the news "bitcoin hits record high of $73k" - they only care about it in terms of dollars.
I would venture that many (most?) people who invest in bitcoin don't know that you can use it on your own without an exchange.  
For it to take off as a currency people will have to, wait for it..... start using it to buy/sell goods.  That may or may not ever happen on a significant basis - the world has never done this so everybody is guessing.  

Unless/until that happens it's just another commodity who's value is expressed in dollars.  The big difference is that it can't be manipulated like other commodities, the supply is finite, and nobody can stop you from using it.  
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Morgan321:
Originally Posted By Enzo300:
OK then, how about a grocery store chain where I can "off ramp" BTC for some necessities?

BTC maxi's are great at arguing BTC's fine points, but to Joe down the street, it's still not working as intended. As long as there are 1000's of maxi's, and millions of Joe's, it's not going to go the way you say.

This is the problem with bitcoin - it has become just another investment that you buy with dollars and sell for dollars.  Look at the news "bitcoin hits record high of $73k" - they only care about it in terms of dollars.
I would venture that many (most?) people who invest in bitcoin don't know that you can use it on your own without an exchange.  
For it to take off as a currency people will have to, wait for it..... start using it to buy/sell goods.  That may or may not ever happen on a significant basis - the world has never done this so everybody is guessing.  

Unless/until that happens it's just another commodity who's value is expressed in dollars.  The big difference is that it can't be manipulated like other commodities, the supply is finite, and nobody can stop you from using it.  


Whether Bitcoin works out or not, the current phase where speculators are building out the market is a necessary one.

Too many people have this incorrect idea that for a cryptocurrency to work, it has to work on Day 1.  There is absolutely zero reason for such a constraint particularly when we have a history of other currencies on the planet that took decades even centuries for markets to get built out to the point where they were useful.

Centralized currencies have the benefit that they can get to that point of utility much quicker because the markets can be created "by fiat" or "by decree".  If you want a decentralized currency to work out, you are going to have to be a little more patient because the process is far more organic.  

Link Posted: 8/5/2024 10:52:43 AM EST
[#5]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Enzo300:
OK then, how about a grocery store chain where I can "off ramp" BTC for some necessities?
View Quote

You can do that in El Salvador.  You just have to move to a free country that has adopted Bitcoin as legal tender, rather than living in the global financial bully that demands to know where your every penny came from and is going to (just in case they want to steal it all from you).
Link Posted: 8/5/2024 10:54:42 AM EST
[#6]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Naporter:

Mostly wasted keystrokes, but you're spot on. The anti-crypto guys come in here and shit on it when there's a downturn, then disappear when we're pumping. They don't understand it, nor do they care to see the error of their mentality, or admit they're wrong.

It's a bizarre cognitive dissonance with them. They claim to love freedom, and hate cancel culture, censorship, and corruption.  However they also decry DeFi, which is truly free. No censorship, no blacklisting. Transactions are immutable and irreversible.  Everything's public and verifiable so corruption and criminality are far more difficult to conceal.

It is the "dangerous freedom" so many claim to prefer, in contrast to the "peaceful slavery" that is TradFi.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Naporter:
Originally Posted By woodsie:
Originally Posted By Enzo300:
Originally Posted By woodsie:


If you want a bridge from a traditional system to a decentralized system, you are going to have to play by the rules of the traditional system.  It's like the Berlin Wall.  They built it to keep people in, not to keep people out.

The "KYC free" on ramp / off ramp from cryptocurrency looks like this:

On Ramp -> Build your own mining rig and convert electricity into cryptocurrency.

Off Ramp -> Spend your cryptocurrency directly on the stuff you actually want to buy rather than exchanging it for dollars.

Cryptocurrency wasn't invented with the idea of "off ramping" to USD.  That's something that wasn't even really contemplated until a couple years after the invention of Bitcoin.  The first legitimate Bitcoin value transaction was a year and a half after it was released and it was for pizza, not dollars.  Trading and speculation as we know it came even later than that.


OK then, how about a grocery store chain where I can "off ramp" BTC for some necessities?

BTC maxi's are great at arguing BTC's fine points, but to Joe down the street, it's still not working as intended. As long as there are 1000's of maxi's, and millions of Joe's, it's not going to go the way you say.

As a market with a lot of volatility, and some pretty good chart behavior, BTC works for me but it sure as hell isn't "money".


I've explained this dozens of times in this thread but I'll do it again.  

A)  For any currency to truly be decentralized, it must start at zero.  Any currency that launches with value is by definition centralized to some degree.

B)
 For any decentralized currency to truly be useful globally, it must have a market capitalization in the multiple trillions if you are using the USD as a benchmark for the sake of discussion.

Therefore:

C) For any decentralized currency to get from Point A to Point B, it is inevitably the case that there must be an extended period of time over which the market for it is built out by speculators.  On that point, thank you for your service.

If you can step back and see the big picture, then you would understand that we are potentially in the middle of a several decades long experiment in decentralized currency and you are trying to judge the results of the experiment long before it's actually completed.

This is not a Bitcoin maxi argument.  This is a broad argument regarding cryptocurrency or even perhaps some other future form of decentralized currency that we haven't even contemplated.  There is no rule that says that a future cryptocurrency which succeeds in global adoption has to be Bitcoin in the first place.  On the other hand, there is also no rule that says that Bitcoin can't serve as the value basis for some other derivative that ends up being the actual direct instrument of trade in this scenario.



Mostly wasted keystrokes, but you're spot on. The anti-crypto guys come in here and shit on it when there's a downturn, then disappear when we're pumping. They don't understand it, nor do they care to see the error of their mentality, or admit they're wrong.

It's a bizarre cognitive dissonance with them. They claim to love freedom, and hate cancel culture, censorship, and corruption.  However they also decry DeFi, which is truly free. No censorship, no blacklisting. Transactions are immutable and irreversible.  Everything's public and verifiable so corruption and criminality are far more difficult to conceal.

It is the "dangerous freedom" so many claim to prefer, in contrast to the "peaceful slavery" that is TradFi.


It put it our there for everyone, not just him.  There's plenty of people who are "into cryptocurrency" and receptive who haven't thought about it the way that I'm describing so if I can give them an opportunity to think about something differently, then I'm happy to do it.
Link Posted: 8/5/2024 10:55:25 AM EST
[#7]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Sebastian_MacMaine:

You can do that in El Salvador.  You just have to move to a free country that has adopted Bitcoin as legal tender, rather than living in the global financial bully that demands to know where your every penny came from and is going to (just in case they want to steal it all from you).
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Sebastian_MacMaine:
Originally Posted By Enzo300:
OK then, how about a grocery store chain where I can "off ramp" BTC for some necessities?

You can do that in El Salvador.  You just have to move to a free country that has adopted Bitcoin as legal tender, rather than living in the global financial bully that demands to know where your every penny came from and is going to (just in case they want to steal it all from you).


Now with less violent crime than the USA too!

Amazing to see what's happening in El Salvador these days.
Link Posted: 8/5/2024 10:56:55 AM EST
[#8]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By woodsie:


It put it our there for everyone, not just him.  There's plenty of people who are "into cryptocurrency" and receptive who haven't thought about it the way that I'm describing so if I can give them an opportunity to think about something differently, then I'm happy to do it.
View Quote View All Quotes
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By woodsie:
Originally Posted By Naporter:
Originally Posted By woodsie:
Originally Posted By Enzo300:
Originally Posted By woodsie:


If you want a bridge from a traditional system to a decentralized system, you are going to have to play by the rules of the traditional system.  It's like the Berlin Wall.  They built it to keep people in, not to keep people out.

The "KYC free" on ramp / off ramp from cryptocurrency looks like this:

On Ramp -> Build your own mining rig and convert electricity into cryptocurrency.

Off Ramp -> Spend your cryptocurrency directly on the stuff you actually want to buy rather than exchanging it for dollars.

Cryptocurrency wasn't invented with the idea of "off ramping" to USD.  That's something that wasn't even really contemplated until a couple years after the invention of Bitcoin.  The first legitimate Bitcoin value transaction was a year and a half after it was released and it was for pizza, not dollars.  Trading and speculation as we know it came even later than that.


OK then, how about a grocery store chain where I can "off ramp" BTC for some necessities?

BTC maxi's are great at arguing BTC's fine points, but to Joe down the street, it's still not working as intended. As long as there are 1000's of maxi's, and millions of Joe's, it's not going to go the way you say.

As a market with a lot of volatility, and some pretty good chart behavior, BTC works for me but it sure as hell isn't "money".


I've explained this dozens of times in this thread but I'll do it again.  

A)  For any currency to truly be decentralized, it must start at zero.  Any currency that launches with value is by definition centralized to some degree.

B)
 For any decentralized currency to truly be useful globally, it must have a market capitalization in the multiple trillions if you are using the USD as a benchmark for the sake of discussion.

Therefore:

C) For any decentralized currency to get from Point A to Point B, it is inevitably the case that there must be an extended period of time over which the market for it is built out by speculators.  On that point, thank you for your service.

If you can step back and see the big picture, then you would understand that we are potentially in the middle of a several decades long experiment in decentralized currency and you are trying to judge the results of the experiment long before it's actually completed.

This is not a Bitcoin maxi argument.  This is a broad argument regarding cryptocurrency or even perhaps some other future form of decentralized currency that we haven't even contemplated.  There is no rule that says that a future cryptocurrency which succeeds in global adoption has to be Bitcoin in the first place.  On the other hand, there is also no rule that says that Bitcoin can't serve as the value basis for some other derivative that ends up being the actual direct instrument of trade in this scenario.



Mostly wasted keystrokes, but you're spot on. The anti-crypto guys come in here and shit on it when there's a downturn, then disappear when we're pumping. They don't understand it, nor do they care to see the error of their mentality, or admit they're wrong.

It's a bizarre cognitive dissonance with them. They claim to love freedom, and hate cancel culture, censorship, and corruption.  However they also decry DeFi, which is truly free. No censorship, no blacklisting. Transactions are immutable and irreversible.  Everything's public and verifiable so corruption and criminality are far more difficult to conceal.

It is the "dangerous freedom" so many claim to prefer, in contrast to the "peaceful slavery" that is TradFi.


It put it our there for everyone, not just him.  There's plenty of people who are "into cryptocurrency" and receptive who haven't thought about it the way that I'm describing so if I can give them an opportunity to think about something differently, then I'm happy to do it.

A good point.

The deeper meaning is easily overlooked by many.
Link Posted: 8/5/2024 10:58:08 AM EST
[#9]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Naporter:

Mostly wasted keystrokes, but you're spot on. The anti-crypto guys come in here and shit on it when there's a downturn, then disappear when we're pumping. They don't understand it, nor do they care to see the error of their mentality, or admit they're wrong.

It's a bizarre cognitive dissonance with them. They claim to love freedom, and hate cancel culture, censorship, and corruption.  However they also decry DeFi, which is truly free. No censorship, no blacklisting. Transactions are immutable and irreversible.  Everything's public and verifiable so corruption and criminality are far more difficult to conceal.

It is the "dangerous freedom" so many claim to prefer, in contrast to the "peaceful slavery" that is TradFi.
View Quote


I'm certainly not anti-crypto. In fact, I can see a million great uses for blockchain technology.
BTC's "fundamentals" aren't doing what its supporters are expecting it to though, and it's acting a whole lot more like a risk on asset on steroids, than the disruptive technology scenario espoused by its fans.

The chart I posted earlier pretty clearly shows an expanding descending wedge pattern of lower highs and lower lows the past 5 months, yet this thread acts surprised it gets pneumonia when the market coughs.
Link Posted: 8/5/2024 10:59:41 AM EST
[#10]
I think another issue with many is the responsibility that self-custody brings, which is scary to some.

You, and you alone, are responsible for safeguarding your private key(s).  There is no safety net, and if you fail, your stuff's just gone.
Link Posted: 8/5/2024 11:09:02 AM EST
[#11]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Morgan321:

This is the problem with bitcoin - it has become just another investment that you buy with dollars and sell for dollars.  Look at the news "bitcoin hits record high of $73k" - they only care about it in terms of dollars.
I would venture that many (most?) people who invest in bitcoin don't know that you can use it on your own without an exchange.  
For it to take off as a currency people will have to, wait for it..... start using it to buy/sell goods.  That may or may not ever happen on a significant basis - the world has never done this so everybody is guessing.  

Unless/until that happens it's just another commodity who's value is expressed in dollars.  The big difference is that it can't be manipulated like other commodities, the supply is finite, and nobody can stop you from using it.  
View Quote


Oh, I don't know about "can't be manipulated". I imagine we're close to the majority of BTC being held by folks who see it as a market rather than money. If the success of BTC is dependent on it actually being used as intended rather than as an investment vehicle, then the ETF adoption is certainly a massive step in the wrong direction and the likelihood of manipulation increases dramatically.
Link Posted: 8/5/2024 11:29:54 AM EST
[#12]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Enzo300:


I'm certainly not anti-crypto. In fact, I can see a million great uses for blockchain technology.
BTC's "fundamentals" aren't doing what its supporters are expecting it to though, and it's acting a whole lot more like a risk on asset on steroids, than the disruptive technology scenario espoused by its fans.

The chart I posted earlier pretty clearly shows an expanding descending wedge pattern of lower highs and lower lows the past 5 months, yet this thread acts surprised it gets pneumonia when the market coughs.
View Quote


It's a gigantic bull flag.

https://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/cotd/answ20090105.aspx
Link Posted: 8/5/2024 11:39:24 AM EST
[#13]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Megastorm:


You should have sold on 7/31 when BTC dropped below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average when it was at 65,238.


View Quote



Link Posted: 8/5/2024 11:51:21 AM EST
[#14]
Personally I can't wait to transfer .0000000042069 satoshis to vVY 6hB2qpMD4hPatjsonrfoxjej69 for a snickers (including use of money transfer fee). I'll happily wait 30 minutes for network confirmation if it means no more government.
Link Posted: 8/5/2024 11:51:53 AM EST
[#15]
Oops I misspelled the address. No snickers for me.
Link Posted: 8/5/2024 12:22:05 PM EST
[#16]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Caeser2001:


It's a gigantic bull flag.

https://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/cotd/answ20090105.aspx
View Quote



Bull flags don't have a pole on each end.
That's a yard sign.
Link Posted: 8/5/2024 12:41:07 PM EST
[#17]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Enzo300:



Bull flags don't have a pole on each end.
That's a yard sign.
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Enzo300:
Originally Posted By Caeser2001:


It's a gigantic bull flag.

https://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/cotd/answ20090105.aspx



Bull flags don't have a pole on each end.
That's a yard sign.


Is that good or bad?  
Link Posted: 8/5/2024 12:53:57 PM EST
[#18]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By woodsie:


The Tulip analogy with Bitcoin is at least 11 years old on GD.  I first heard it back when I was buying at $200 per each.

Tulip mania didn't last as long nor did it ever recover from it's first crash.  That analogy is stone cold dead at this point.
View Quote
+1

Using the analogy just helps identify those who know nothing about Bitcoin.
Link Posted: 8/5/2024 12:59:17 PM EST
[#19]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Mazeman:
+1

Using the analogy just helps identify those who know nothing about Bitcoin.
View Quote


I really wish I could afford more of these fucking tulips.
Link Posted: 8/5/2024 12:59:59 PM EST
[#20]
Going.

To.

Zero.

Sell now and get your USD before it's too late.


Link Posted: 8/5/2024 1:02:53 PM EST
[#21]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Trunalimunumaprzure:
Going.

To.

Zero.

Sell now and get your USD before it's too late.


View Quote


Let's hope. Would have a lot of time back in my life if I could stop learning more about it.
Link Posted: 8/5/2024 1:19:25 PM EST
[#22]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By woodsie:


Is that good or bad?  
View Quote


lol. I'm not that far into the book.

Tbh, if I were a gambling man (and I am), I'd bet that todays candle sets up a pretty significant bottoming tail that BTC is going to respect for awhile.
If we can close above that 55840 support line, and stay above it all day tomorrow, that'd be a solid case that we've seen the near term low.

If we close below it, and stay below it all day tomorrow (confirmation), we're not done flushing the weak hands.
Link Posted: 8/5/2024 1:23:18 PM EST
[#23]
These things are not up, instead the dollar is down.

Kammy Collapse is coming if this election cycle is stolen, like it was last time.
Link Posted: 8/5/2024 1:26:31 PM EST
[Last Edit: woodsie] [#24]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Enzo300:


lol. I'm not that far into the book.

Tbh, if I were a gambling man (and I am), I'd bet that todays candle sets up a pretty significant bottoming tail that BTC is going to respect for awhile.
If we can close above that 55840 support line, and stay above it all day tomorrow, that'd be a solid case that we've seen the near term low.

If we close below it, and stay below it all day tomorrow (confirmation), we're not done flushing the weak hands.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Enzo300:
Originally Posted By woodsie:


Is that good or bad?  


lol. I'm not that far into the book.

Tbh, if I were a gambling man (and I am), I'd bet that todays candle sets up a pretty significant bottoming tail that BTC is going to respect for awhile.
If we can close above that 55840 support line, and stay above it all day tomorrow, that'd be a solid case that we've seen the near term low.

If we close below it, and stay below it all day tomorrow (confirmation), we're not done flushing the weak hands.


So I'm not much of a technical guy, but I'll add to your story here to point out that Bitcoin in particular has some seasonality to it.  August and September are historically some of the worst months for Bitcoin whereas October is very consistently bullish with the following few months being usually quite bullish depending on what stage of the cycle we are in.

Attachment Attached File


The macro factors are going to be hard to separate though in any case.  A recession could swing things one way and a Fed rescue could swing things the other way in a hurry.





Link Posted: 8/5/2024 5:49:53 PM EST
[Last Edit: makintrax73] [#25]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Jagrmaister:


With zero research into the asset...
View Quote



I have all the research I need:

- it does not, and never will produce a profit stream.  Therefore the only use case is as a storehouse of real value and/or a medium of exchange.  Or as pure speculation, which is what we have seen.

-  you can tell me whether an asset with double digit % daily value swings that can go from 70k to 20k and back to 70k and back to 54k is a storehouse of value in your opinion. It isn't in mine.

- if it can't maintain stable purchasing power it is of little use as a medium of exchange even it it could be so used in practice, which it can't (currently) because of practicality and tax law.

Research is not needed if I know all I need to know not to be interested.  At the point it maintains stable real value at least I'll be interested. If it becomes that and a medium of exchange I'll get real interested. Until then I'll chuckle a little when speculators learn what speculation means.
Link Posted: 8/5/2024 5:51:34 PM EST
[#26]
Originally Posted By iwouldntknow:
Personally I can't wait to transfer .0000000042069 satoshis to vVY 6hB2qpMD4hPatjsonrfoxjej69 for a snickers (including use of money transfer fee). I'll happily wait 30 minutes for network confirmation if it means no more government.
View Quote

Originally Posted By iwouldntknow:
Oops I misspelled the address. No snickers for me.
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Do you even QR code bro?
Link Posted: 8/5/2024 6:43:45 PM EST
[#27]
Link Posted: 8/5/2024 7:25:29 PM EST
[Last Edit: mPisi] [#28]
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Originally Posted By makintrax73:
-  you can tell me whether an asset with double digit % daily value swings that can go from 70k to 20k and back to 70k and back to 54k is a storehouse of value in your opinion. It isn't in mine.
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Originally Posted By makintrax73:
-  you can tell me whether an asset with double digit % daily value swings that can go from 70k to 20k and back to 70k and back to 54k is a storehouse of value in your opinion. It isn't in mine.

I'm pretty sure the first 15 years of gold, or probably 1,500 years, were pretty rocky on the value side (SWIDT?).  "Look at this dipshit trying to buy my sheep/Lambo with shiny rocks/BTC"
It's not ready for you yet, come back in 20 years.  Like talking to someone about email in 1980.


Originally Posted By iwouldntknow:
Personally I can't wait to transfer .0000000042069 satoshis to vVY 6hB2qpMD4hPatjsonrfoxjej69 for a snickers (including use of money transfer fee). I'll happily wait 30 minutes for network confirmation if it means no more government.

If you're exchanging a$0.49 (inflation) $0.79 (damn inflation) $0.99 WTF $1.29 Snickers bar for that, then any current hodler is very, very wealthy:
1 satoshi = $306,639 USD 8/2024 equivalent
1 BTC = 3.06639 x 10^15 USD 8/2024 equivalent  (a.k.a. quadrillion)
(I might have missed a zero in there somewhere)
Link Posted: 8/7/2024 7:52:00 AM EST
[#29]
I imagine this guy is hated here,
but in this he is not wrong.

Link Posted: 8/7/2024 8:01:23 AM EST
[Last Edit: Jagrmaister] [#30]
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Originally Posted By makintrax73:



I have all the research I need:

- it does not, and never will produce a profit stream.  Therefore the only use case is as a storehouse of real value and/or a medium of exchange.  Or as pure speculation, which is what we have seen.

-  you can tell me whether an asset with double digit % daily value swings that can go from 70k to 20k and back to 70k and back to 54k is a storehouse of value in your opinion. It isn't in mine.

- if it can't maintain stable purchasing power it is of little use as a medium of exchange even it it could be so used in practice, which it can't (currently) because of practicality and tax law.

Research is not needed if I know all I need to know not to be interested.  At the point it maintains stable real value at least I'll be interested. If it becomes that and a medium of exchange I'll get real interested. Until then I'll chuckle a little when speculators learn what speculation means.
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Originally Posted By makintrax73:
Originally Posted By Jagrmaister:


With zero research into the asset...



I have all the research I need:

- it does not, and never will produce a profit stream.  Therefore the only use case is as a storehouse of real value and/or a medium of exchange.  Or as pure speculation, which is what we have seen.

-  you can tell me whether an asset with double digit % daily value swings that can go from 70k to 20k and back to 70k and back to 54k is a storehouse of value in your opinion. It isn't in mine.

- if it can't maintain stable purchasing power it is of little use as a medium of exchange even it it could be so used in practice, which it can't (currently) because of practicality and tax law.

Research is not needed if I know all I need to know not to be interested.  At the point it maintains stable real value at least I'll be interested. If it becomes that and a medium of exchange I'll get real interested. Until then I'll chuckle a little when speculators learn what speculation means.




As to your first "point" if you had one... Seems pretty profitable to miners to me. They haven't shut the lights out yet.

Not to mention it has the ability to monetize trapped energy anywhere on the planet with the perk of no longer being required to deliver that energy elsewhere.

Good luck in the future telling your descendants how you knew all you needed to know.
Link Posted: 8/7/2024 8:26:20 AM EST
[#31]
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Originally Posted By Enzo300:
I imagine this guy is hated here,
but in this he is not wrong.
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He is correct.  

I'm not in the ETFs because I want to hold bitcoin.  I'm in the ETFs because I'm speculating that bitcoin will increase in price and I can cash in at a profit.  
Link Posted: 8/7/2024 8:32:46 AM EST
[#32]
Link Posted: 8/7/2024 10:40:14 AM EST
[#33]
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Originally Posted By Enzo300:
I imagine this guy is hated here,
but in this he is not wrong.

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But if it’s a gold ETF it’s okay?  Peter cannot help himself. He has Bitcoin derangement syndrome.

The only reason I’m in FBTC and not all in on self custody BTC is because I’m too young to access my IRA without penalty.  I’m happy to now have easy access to Bitcoin spot price with money that is locked up. And, as others have stated, if you’re in a Roth IRA you get the added benefit of tax free returns.
Link Posted: 8/7/2024 11:32:19 AM EST
[#34]
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Originally Posted By Enzo300:
I imagine this guy is hated here,
but in this he is not wrong.

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Of course he's wrong.  Did he suddenly become a Bitcoin maxi overnight, or is he just trying to score a snarky point that completely misses the point?
Link Posted: 8/7/2024 12:22:54 PM EST
[#35]
Who gives a shit what Schiff thinks?




Link Posted: 8/7/2024 1:30:48 PM EST
[#36]
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Originally Posted By Trunalimunumaprzure:
Who gives a shit what Schiff thinks?




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Attachment Attached File

Link Posted: 8/8/2024 10:59:49 AM EST
[#37]
59.5k

nice recovery and flushing of the weaklings
Link Posted: 8/8/2024 11:06:21 AM EST
[#38]
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Originally Posted By Fooboy:
59.5k

nice recovery and flushing of the weaklings
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100k here we come.
Link Posted: 8/8/2024 11:08:32 AM EST
[#39]
I'll take it!  
(Nevermind the -38% from Monday!)

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Link Posted: 8/8/2024 11:13:27 AM EST
[#40]
Now we are negotiating what % of a governments GDP and assets are in BTC.

5 years ago, that would be mad.

Now, we are mad.

I regret every trade I made.

Link Posted: 8/8/2024 11:15:20 AM EST
[#41]
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Originally Posted By SheltiePimp:
Now we are negotiating what % of a governments GDP and assets are in BTC.

5 years ago, that would be mad.

Now, we are mad.

I regret every trade I made.

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Translation for a simpleton?
Link Posted: 8/8/2024 11:16:24 AM EST
[#42]
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Originally Posted By Enzo300:
I imagine this guy is hated here,
but in this he is not wrong.

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There is more than one reason to own BTC.

I own WAY more for speculative purposes than I do for personal transactional or privacy reasons.  The ETFs are fine for speculative purposes.
Link Posted: 8/8/2024 12:26:51 PM EST
[#43]
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Originally Posted By Trunalimunumaprzure:
Who gives a shit what Schiff thinks?




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Whether it's Peter or Adam, neither's opinion is worth giving two Schitts about.

Link Posted: 8/8/2024 4:59:55 PM EST
[#44]
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Originally Posted By Enzo300:
I imagine this guy is hated here,
but in this he is not wrong.

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There's these things called IRAs, ROTH IRAs, HSAs, maybe you've heard of them
Link Posted: 8/13/2024 7:01:33 AM EST
[#45]
Link Posted: 8/15/2024 10:56:15 AM EST
[#46]
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While it's quiet in here, who doesn't know anything about a HSA?
Link Posted: 8/15/2024 12:01:41 PM EST
[#47]
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Originally Posted By Enzo300:


OK then, how about a grocery store chain where I can "off ramp" BTC for some necessities?

BTC maxi's are great at arguing BTC's fine points, but to Joe down the street, it's still not working as intended. As long as there are 1000's of maxi's, and millions of Joe's, it's not going to go the way you say.

As a market with a lot of volatility, and some pretty good chart behavior, BTC works for me but it sure as hell isn't "money".
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I can spend btc with a coinbase "debit" card. No need to really offramp to a bank per say.
Link Posted: 8/15/2024 3:06:10 PM EST
[#48]
Alt coins are getting destroyed, most down 80% from their ATH. Any recommendations on what to throw a few bucks at?
Link Posted: 8/15/2024 3:08:58 PM EST
[#49]
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Originally Posted By Zac87:
Alt coins are getting destroyed, most down 80% from their ATH. Any recommendations on what to throw a few bucks at?
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BTC
Link Posted: 8/15/2024 3:11:40 PM EST
[#50]
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Originally Posted By burnka871:



BTC
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Originally Posted By burnka871:
Originally Posted By Zac87:
Alt coins are getting destroyed, most down 80% from their ATH. Any recommendations on what to throw a few bucks at?



BTC

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