Posted: 7/17/2025 6:04:40 PM EDT
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This is a freight train. What is coming up that could slow things down? Slow down as in: A burp day Flat Or down trend for a period OR a major dive down for a duration? Anyone? Anything goes during brainstorming. Best answer that wins, I’ll ship you a couple pmags. Where legal of course. |
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We'll probably get a correction at some point soon just because of the huge V-shaped recovery we just had, but I think it will be a small one, and I will be adding if it happens. It could be because Trump fires Powell, but honestly that's just a side-show, and crypto would love that anyway. For something larger you're probably be looking at something debt crisis related, but that's a black swan event that I don't worry about. Right now we have an AI boom that is only growing. We have a potential quantum computing boom that is just getting started. And a crypto boom that is only growing, even if we are nearing this cycle end. That's a lot of booms, and personally I ain't missing out on it... |
| My wife is an Exec Assistant to a Financial Advisor. All of their firms partner FA’s are talking about a “reset” soon. Not in a bad way, just that there’s going to be a reset. We have a college freshman that is a double major in Finance and Energy Mgmt, he was talking at the dinner table tonight about investing some of his cash (a very small amount) in stocks, my wife said “buy it during the reset, and just hang on to it.” |
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With earnings season starting again I’ve been paying attention to companies I don’t even have a stake in just to gauge consumer and business spending. As long as major players are meeting or beating expectations the party probably keeps going. If we start seeing misses that will be the music stopping. Retail doesn’t seem too concerned with bumps in the road and generally buys the dip. In the past 12 months we’ve seen yen carry trade, Deepseek, and the liberation day dips that retail has bought up. At this point it’s probably take something like China invading Taiwan to scare retail off. Interest rates concern me a bit. The market seems to accept that Powell isn’t going to cut any more while Trump goes back and forth on tariffs. If Trump succeeds in getting Powell out and can get a yes man who’ll cut aggressively I think we’re in for a wild ride. |
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Some good ideas in this thread and new to me things which is the goal. Any other thoughts? I need to pickup 450 shares of VITAX. Do I pull the trigger today or ride it out for the week with earnings? Recently the word "reset" has been tossed around but if you look at the trends, you lose more opportunity cost waiting for the reset then actually holding through the reset. Of course, my favorite is buying during the reset too. |
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Originally Posted By FALARAK: Earnings. Doesn't seem to mean much in this risk-on manic environment. 600 P/E ratio? Yawn. Pull backs get bought up and sent to new highs within weeks. Tariff threats are shrugged off now due to TACO. Any long lasting reversal will begin in the overextended credit market and the subsequent fallout of the economy will have to get bloody enough to spook the buy-the-dip robinhood and all-in-tech 401K generations who have never experienced a global crash that wipes out 5 yrs of gains followed by a decade+ sideways market. |
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I am seeing some reduction in housing starts, unemployment beginning to rise, gold going up in value, and overall retail sales beginning to soften. There are also other indications of a coming slow down in the economy. I also note what I perceive as an increase in civil unrest in the US. This in my opinion may be the start of a softer economy. I have seen this before over the last 30+ years I have been in the stock market. Of course I could be wrong, but this looks like a forming opportunity to buy less expensive stocks in the near future. I like to sell some stocks when stocks are overvalued in my opinion, and buy stocks after stocks drop in value. My Guess is that there is an approximate 60-70% change of a market pull-back (buying opportunity), and a 10% (or slightly less) chance of a depression (no opportunity short-term). Note: I would rather the US economy and markets do well but I don't ignore what I view are current conditions. |
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Originally Posted By HEATSEAKER: .......... will have to get bloody enough to spook the buy-the-dip robinhood and all-in-tech 401K generations who have never experienced a global crash that wipes out 5 yrs of gains followed by a decade+ sideways market. You can't apply logic to illogical situations. Is it possible that the stock market and/or the dollar is so "fake and gay" © that markets continue to climb even more beyond their current "unreasonable" valuations. One thing I find interesting is that people always reference the 2008 crash and nobody ever talks about the "dot com crunch" around 2000. They were similar in magnitude but the markets took much longer to recover from the 2000 crash. 5 years of gains is not a showstopper if you are 60 and have 30 years of gains prior to the last 5 years. Live within your means and invest 10-20% of your pay into the broader stock market over your lifetime and you'll be able to retire relatively wealthy. Attached File |
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Originally Posted By Morgan321: You can't apply logic to illogical situations. Is it possible that the stock market and/or the dollar is so "fake and gay" © that markets continue to climb even more beyond their current "unreasonable" valuations. One thing I find interesting is that people always reference the 2008 crash and nobody ever talks about the "dot com crunch" around 2000. They were similar in magnitude but the markets took much longer to recover from the 2000 crash. 5 years of gains is not a showstopper if you are 60 and have 30 years of gains prior to the last 5 years. Live within your means and invest 10-20% of your pay into the broader stock market over your lifetime and you'll be able to retire relatively wealthy. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/335009/Screenshot_2025-07-21_080606_png-3591368.JPG Originally Posted By Morgan321: Originally Posted By HEATSEAKER: .......... will have to get bloody enough to spook the buy-the-dip robinhood and all-in-tech 401K generations who have never experienced a global crash that wipes out 5 yrs of gains followed by a decade+ sideways market. You can't apply logic to illogical situations. Is it possible that the stock market and/or the dollar is so "fake and gay" © that markets continue to climb even more beyond their current "unreasonable" valuations. One thing I find interesting is that people always reference the 2008 crash and nobody ever talks about the "dot com crunch" around 2000. They were similar in magnitude but the markets took much longer to recover from the 2000 crash. 5 years of gains is not a showstopper if you are 60 and have 30 years of gains prior to the last 5 years. Live within your means and invest 10-20% of your pay into the broader stock market over your lifetime and you'll be able to retire relatively wealthy. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/335009/Screenshot_2025-07-21_080606_png-3591368.JPG Not to mention that you dont wipe out 5 years of gains at that age, if you had a proper asset allocation. |
| USA leadership is in sync with us, they are fixing things, they are not hostile like the previous admin was (Lina Kahn, Gensler). Yes Trump is volatile d2d, but far more important he is business-friendly. As investors I can't recall ever having so much wind at our backs. |
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Originally Posted By SkiandShoot: Seems like everything is in a holding pattern right now? Any inklings, indicators or gut for a direction? No wrong answer! If I was retired I would ensure I could withstand a market downturn on par with what started in 2000. |
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Originally Posted By Procat: I believe Target and Walmart both report earnings this week. That should give a good idea on both consumer spending health and the performance of companies with big tariff exposure. Interesting, good information I can do digging on and think about. Looking to make a large purchase of ViTAX so trying to walk a line on a solid scoop without FOMO too. |
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Originally Posted By Morgan321: The market can stay irrational longer than you can. If I was retired I would ensure I could withstand a market downturn on par with what started in 2000. Originally Posted By Morgan321: Originally Posted By SkiandShoot: Seems like everything is in a holding pattern right now? Any inklings, indicators or gut for a direction? No wrong answer! If I was retired I would ensure I could withstand a market downturn on par with what started in 2000. Yes, and when the market gets a reality check it can stay irrational in the other direction for many years. Once bit, twice shy. Just mentioning the stock market, especially tech brought on waves of nausea and apprehension for a good portion of the investing community and the bargain P/E's reflected it. I had sooo many young co-workers who panicked and cashed out what could have been a comfy 401K retirement by now if they would have just thrown their monthly statements in the trash without opening to see the carnage. Now that financial news is in our face and jumping ship is a press of the button or bot sell away it will be at a whole different level when the pendulum swings and the risk-off race to lock in gains and unload bags begins. |
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Originally Posted By HEATSEAKER: Yes, and when the market gets a reality check it can stay irrational in the other direction for many years. Once bit, twice shy. Just mentioning the stock market, especially tech brought on waves of nausea and apprehension for a good portion of the investing community and the bargain P/E's reflected it. I had sooo many young co-workers who panicked and cashed out what could have been a comfy 401K retirement by now if they would have just thrown their monthly statements in the trash without opening to see the carnage. Now that financial news is in our face and jumping ship is a press of the button or bot sell away it will be at a whole different level when the pendulum swings and the risk-off race to lock in gains and unload bags begins. Exactly. Fall of 2000, I beg borrowed every dollar I had and could scrape together as a young engineer and was buying when everyone was selling during the dotcom bust. Fall of 2008, I tapped every resource I could and maxxed out the 401k, ROTH ira and sold even houshold items to invest, market meltdown. March 1st of 2020, maxxed out 401k in 3 payrolls for my wife and I, maxxed out roth ira and then drained savings to bare bones to pile it in the market. Wife did side eye me during this one during COVID while eating mac n cheese. Told her, trust me. April of this year, same story, tarriff extradition. I'm looking to BUY not sell  These blocks of cash and purchases I have tagged as a 7 year, 2032 or 10 year at 2035 time horizon. I've got other cash blocks I'll populate my buckets with from 2027-2031ish. Granted if the wife throws down "we need a lake house or a mountain house", i'll have to reconfigure. |
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Originally Posted By SkiandShoot: Exactly. Fall of 2000, I beg borrowed every dollar I had and could scrape together as a young engineer and was buying when everyone was selling during the dotcom bust. Fall of 2008, I tapped every resource I could and maxxed out the 401k, ROTH ira and sold even houshold items to invest, market meltdown. March 1st of 2020, maxxed out 401k in 3 payrolls for my wife and I, maxxed out roth ira and then drained savings to bare bones to pile it in the market. Wife did side eye me during this one during COVID while eating mac n cheese. Told her, trust me. April of this year, same story, tarriff extradition. I'm looking to BUY not sell These blocks of cash and purchases I have tagged as a 7 year, 2032 or 10 year at 2035 time horizon. I've got other cash blocks I'll populate my buckets with from 2027-2031ish. Granted if the wife throws down "we need a lake house or a mountain house", i'll have to reconfigure. That takes a lot of discipline to swim against the tide. Our brains our pre-programmed to follow cues from the rest of the herd or get left behind to get eaten by the bear. You bring up a good point about going all in during a downturn. Not only did my co-workers cash out at the bottom with penalties and taxes but many also had their weekly contributions with company match halted altogether. They were already pissed that this newfangled poorly explained thing replaced their union pensions so the hefty market haircut fulfilled their pre-conceived notions that this was a scam to bleed them dry. Why keep throwing good money after bad? They could have been auto buying shares on the weekly for pennies on the dollar or at least switched allocations to safe boring money market for an automatic gain of 50% per dollar invested + yearly interest of 7% or so back then. Compounded over time that adds up. |
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Originally Posted By HEATSEAKER: Yes, and when the market gets a reality check it can stay irrational in the other direction for many years. Now that ....... jumping ship is a press of the button or bot sell away it will be at a whole different level when the pendulum swings and the risk-off race to lock in gains and unload bags begins. Everybody talks about 2008 since it's the most recent recession, but the dot-com crunch in 2000 lasted a long time. Starting in 2000 it took 7 years to recover, just in time for 2008: Attached File Not a concern if you're young and saving continuously during that time. But if you're freshly retired and no longer saving money that was a serious debbie downer decade! |
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Originally Posted By Morgan321: This is my fear since I'm trying to decide when I want to quit working and I'm 15+ years from SS. Everybody talks about 2008 since it's the most recent recession, but the dot-com crunch in 2000 lasted a long time. Starting in 2000 it took 7 years to recover, just in time for 2008: https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/335009/Screenshot_2025-08-20_084746_png-3610651.JPG Not a concern if you're young and saving continuously during that time. But if you're freshly retired and no longer saving money that was a serious debbie downer decade! Maybe. I never look at the market "peak to peak" because that is unrealistic. The Y2K market peak (based on the S&P) was 3/24/2000 closing at 1527.46. While it is true on a chart, the S&P did not "recover" to that level until 5/30/2007...... a portfolio based on the index with dividends reinvested would have almost fully recovered by 5/2006. But even that being said - would a "freshly retired" person have a portfolio that was 100% S&P500 index based? What about taking into consideration their massive portfolio run-up from 1997 - 2000? Peak to peak never tells the story, IMHO. |
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Originally Posted By FALARAK: But even that being said - would a "freshly retired" person have a portfolio that was 100% S&P500 index based? What about taking into consideration their massive portfolio run-up from 1997 - 2000? Peak to peak never tells the story, IMHO. I look at it as what if you retired at the exact peak before the crash. In the 2000 case, even if you had 5 years of living expenses in safe investments you'd still have to take from your more aggressive savings 5 years after retirement when the market is (still) lower than it was when you retired. In other words, I'm more concerned about the duration of any recession rather than the magnitude. It's easy to plan around a 1-3 year downturn, but if you retire and the market spends a decade at or below the level it was when you retired that's much harder to accommodate. |
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Originally Posted By Morgan321: In other words, I'm more concerned about the duration of any recession rather than the magnitude. It's easy to plan around a 1-3 year downturn, but if you retire and the market spends a decade at or below the level it was when you retired that's much harder to accommodate. No doubt, "sequence of returns risk" is a thing.... and is generally the reason that advisors recommend working 1 additional year once you reach your financial income goals for retirement, to allow for a "cushion". Retiring and then immediately needing all your assets for income increase sequence of returns risk. The ability to reduce non-essential planned spending/income also reduces this risk. This is another reason I like back-testing tools like https://firecalc.com/ They take these periods into consideration so you can evaluate your success/failure rate which includes periods of market underperformance. |
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Poof just like that the machine is turned back on! Seems like lots of folks, including myself are waiting for "is this finally it? did the Ai bubble really pop?" and it never comes. I unfortunately did not make a purchase yesterday but wanted to see what today brought. Missed it. darn it. LOL. Might have to make a hedge purchase Monday. |
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Every year cyclically, there is some kind of market correction. They get overstretched, people see it (and feel it), market corrects itself 5-10%, then goes back up past where it was, until rinse and repeat. Just don't go panic selling and you'll be fine. ;)  |
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I don’t have much to contribute to the question at hand but a comment. A relative of mine is trying to convince me to move my investments out of stocks because “the big money is moving out of stocks into precious metals”. I simply responded with “Buy and hold”. I’m still 7-9 years from retirement and all retirement income needed will be covered by my pensions. I probably won’t start spending most of my invested money for another 15-20 years so it’s staying in aggressive investments for quite awhile longer. |
"It behooves every man to remember that the work of the critic is of altogether secondary importance, and that, in the end, progress is accomplished by the man who does things."
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Originally Posted By ColtRifle: I don't have much to contribute to the question at hand but a comment. A relative of mine is trying to convince me to move my investments out of stocks because "the big money is moving out of stocks into precious metals". I simply responded with "Buy and hold". I'm still 7-9 years from retirement and all retirement income needed will be covered by my pensions. I probably won't start spending most of my invested money for another 15-20 years so it's staying in aggressive investments for quite awhile longer. |
Asset Remarketing & Management Since 1970. Family owned & operated.
Industrial Surplus, MRE's, Ammo Cans! https://kingsurplus.com
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Originally Posted By ColtRifle: I don’t have much to contribute to the question at hand but a comment. A relative of mine is trying to convince me to move my investments out of stocks because “the big money is moving out of stocks into precious metals”. I simply responded with “Buy and hold”. I’m still 7-9 years from retirement and all retirement income needed will be covered by my pensions. I probably won’t start spending most of my invested money for another 15-20 years so it’s staying in aggressive investments for quite awhile longer.  Additionally, if it is in a taxed account, I’m told that there are tax implications because gold is taxed as a collectible (please someone correct me if that’s wrong). Is your relative right if we look at a different slice of time? Heck if I know, but usually when people bet against the S&P500, they’re wrong altogether, or at least on some timescale. A lot of people, including experts, will lead you down regrettable paths if you let them. |
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Originally Posted By 1168RGR: I can’t predict the future, but here’s the past 10years. VOO is a S&P500 index fund (follows the S&P500’s performance), and GLD is a fund of precious metals:https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/563710/IMG_9550-3611773.jpg Additionally, if it is in a taxed account, I’m told that there are tax implications because gold is taxed as a collectible (please someone correct me if that’s wrong). Is your relative right if we look at a different slice of time? Heck if I know, but usually when people bet against the S&P500, they’re wrong altogether, or at least on some timescale. A lot of people, including experts, will lead you down regrettable paths if you let them. I agree totally. My relative is where I was 20+ years ago. Early in my working life I struggled mentally with the market fluctuations….understanding them. I got nervous and pulled money out….like an idiot. After learning I came to realize how that’s just part of investing and to stop looking short term when it comes to investing. Once I figured that out, my net worth started really growing. |
"It behooves every man to remember that the work of the critic is of altogether secondary importance, and that, in the end, progress is accomplished by the man who does things."
Theodore Roosevelt
Theodore Roosevelt
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Originally Posted By 1168RGR: I can’t predict the future, but here’s the past 10years. VOO is a S&P500 index fund (follows the S&P500’s performance), and GLD is a fund of precious metals:https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/563710/IMG_9550-3611773.jpg Additionally, if it is in a taxed account, I’m told that there are tax implications because gold is taxed as a collectible (please someone correct me if that’s wrong). Is your relative right if we look at a different slice of time? Heck if I know, but usually when people bet against the S&P500, they’re wrong altogether, or at least on some timescale. A lot of people, including experts, will lead you down regrettable paths if you let them. Originally Posted By 1168RGR: Originally Posted By ColtRifle: I don’t have much to contribute to the question at hand but a comment. A relative of mine is trying to convince me to move my investments out of stocks because “the big money is moving out of stocks into precious metals”. I simply responded with “Buy and hold”. I’m still 7-9 years from retirement and all retirement income needed will be covered by my pensions. I probably won’t start spending most of my invested money for another 15-20 years so it’s staying in aggressive investments for quite awhile longer. Additionally, if it is in a taxed account, I’m told that there are tax implications because gold is taxed as a collectible (please someone correct me if that’s wrong). Is your relative right if we look at a different slice of time? Heck if I know, but usually when people bet against the S&P500, they’re wrong altogether, or at least on some timescale. A lot of people, including experts, will lead you down regrettable paths if you let them. As a NSDQ fan: 10 yr QQQ would give ya 412% Long live tech. |
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I like QQQ as well (or QQQM), and I personally think that one day it’ll be viewed like SPY/VOO is today or DIA in the past. But I also think I have good odds of being wrong. Just saying that I wouldn’t run and take all of my money out of stocks and put it in gold or duplexes or preban Galils or whatever. I have more equity in QQQ than VOO. |
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Originally Posted By SkiandShoot: Poof just like that the machine is turned back on! Seems like lots of folks, including myself are waiting for "is this finally it? did the Ai bubble really pop?" and it never comes. I unfortunately did not make a purchase yesterday but wanted to see what today brought. Missed it. darn it. LOL. Might have to make a hedge purchase Monday. I suspect the AI trade will be alive and well as long as big tech’s capital expenditures and profits keep going up. Seems like lots of firms are buying Nvidia chips as fast as they can because they can immediately leverage them into increased margins. |
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Originally Posted By ColtRifle: I agree totally. My relative is where I was 20+ years ago. Early in my working life I struggled mentally with the market fluctuations….understanding them. I got nervous and pulled money out….like an idiot. After learning I came to realize how that’s just part of investing and to stop looking short term when it comes to investing. Once I figured that out, my net worth started really growing. Same. I was incredibly stupid when I was younger, driven by fear mixed with Dunning-Kruger. |
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Originally Posted By FALARAK: Same. I was incredibly stupid when I was younger, driven by fear mixed with Dunning-Kruger. I was good at managing my money and made some overall decent decisions early in life which is why I’m in good financial shape today. But, I could have made even better financial decisions that would have put me in an extremely good financial position. I’m now making up for my lost time because I have to beat time in the market (by contributing more than I would have to now). Sadly, I’m in FAR better financial shape than most of my coworkers and friends. |
"It behooves every man to remember that the work of the critic is of altogether secondary importance, and that, in the end, progress is accomplished by the man who does things."
Theodore Roosevelt
Theodore Roosevelt
Maybe the ai hype machines got ahead of reality but continuous improvement drives on.Chad Wahlquist (@chadwahl) August 22, 2025 |