Foxtrot08 makes an oil thread! (Page 40 of 160)
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Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Probably. But they can reformulate that down to group 2s technically speaking. Rotella T2 fleet exists. And it's a straight super cheap conventional. 
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Originally Posted By xd341: The stuff I service mostly isn't all that picky or under warranty but we do have a few that are dexos bullshit. GM can't keep 6.2s together no matter what oil they run but I bet this helps them duck warranty claims. Originally Posted By xd341: Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Probably. But they can reformulate that down to group 2s technically speaking. Rotella T2 fleet exists. And it's a straight super cheap conventional. lol. 0w40 is going to further cease to exist. I put an order in today for an entire truck load of Havoline 0w40 drums. Just to have. My Chevron rep laughed at me. They’re gonna cancel the order. But fuck it. Why not try. |
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| I just finished ordering 3 oil changes of Ultra Platinum from Walmart. Good price. Should last me a couple of years. If things don't go as bad as it seems it won't go to waste. Now I hope gear oil and ATF don't turn into a dumpster fire. But I have time on those. |
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I got 20 gallons of t6 5/40, wallyworld was sold out, got last bit tractor supply had, but rural king had plenty of 2.5 gallon jugs.$59. Lot of 5 gallon jugs for $109. The 5w40 is always out of stock it seems. Plenty of t6 15w40 and regular t2. I assume this will affect hydro oil too, like the hd46? |
| Don't laugh at me but is there any impact expected to ISO 32 hydraulic oil? |
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Originally Posted By TheJMan1: Don't laugh at me but is there any impact expected to ISO 32 hydraulic oil? |
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Originally Posted By boolzi: I got 20 gallons of t6 5/40, wallyworld was sold out, got last bit tractor supply had, but rural king had plenty of 2.5 gallon jugs.$59. Lot of 5 gallon jugs for $109. The 5w40 is always out of stock it seems. Plenty of t6 15w40 and regular t2. I assume this will affect hydro oil too, like the hd46? Prices on normal hydraulic oils will go up. But there won’t be a shortage of group 2 base oils in the U.S. We produce a shitload of group 2s. Arguably way too much. So hydraulics will be alright. Group 1s & bright stock for grease is in a bit of a pinch for a few weeks. But that’s because ARG refinery caught fire a few days ago. But they’ll be back up and running soon. Just for reference. Group 2 base oils are ip $1.20 a gallon today. Which is essentially a 50-70% price increase. Group 3s are up $1.65 a gallon. But, also put on allocation. Shell and Valvoline haven’t announced anything because they’re just fucked. |
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Originally Posted By boolzi: So group 2 is ok and that includes regular Dino oil and synthetic hydraulic oil, group 3 is your synthetic motor oils? And the refinery Iran hit was who made group 3? No ideal if I’m even asking the question correctly… So every modern oil takes group 3s to make. Group 2s would be in your old spec straight weights. The last time we had a straight group 2 base oil in a passenger car motor oil was probably around 2012. We could technically do a 5w30 and 5w20 with 0% group 3s. A dash of PAO for additive solubility. And a shit load of cold flow improver. Using a 115 VI group 2+ base oil. It’s technically impossible to hit SP specs without group 3s as far as I know. Now you can hit CK4 15w40 without group 3s. It’s just… not great oil. Synthetic or high efficiency hydraulic oils use group 3s. Your straight normal ISO AW 32 / 46 / 68 will be group 2. Your tractor hydraulic oils will generally be group 2. The Kubota super UDT2 might have some group 3s in it. Might not. So as per the pic I had on the last page. Shell Pearl plant - Qatar. Heavily Damaged, not operational. 23k bpd. Adnoc - 10k bpd - damaged, offline. Also they supply crude oil to SK lubricants in South Korea. That’s another 20k bpd or so. Bapco - Bahrain. About 8k bpd. Offline, damaged. So yeah. That is a huge amount of the group 3 base oils for the world. Plus with Russia under sanction. Etc. Easily 60-70% of group 3s are off the market. Even if I’m over estimating. It’s 40-50%. For the global market. Not just the U.S. |
Direction, not intention, determines destination.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
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Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: So every modern oil takes group 3s to make. Group 2s would be in your old spec straight weights. The last time we had a straight group 2 base oil in a passenger car motor oil was probably around 2012. We could technically do a 5w30 and 5w20 with 0% group 3s. A dash of PAO for additive solubility. And a shit load of cold flow improver. Using a 115 VI group 2+ base oil. It's technically impossible to hit SP specs without group 3s as far as I know. Now you can hit CK4 15w40 without group 3s. It's just not great oil. Synthetic or high efficiency hydraulic oils use group 3s. Your straight normal ISO AW 32 / 46 / 68 will be group 2. Your tractor hydraulic oils will generally be group 2. The Kubota super UDT2 might have some group 3s in it. Might not. So as per the pic I had on the last page. Shell Pearl plant - Qatar. Heavily Damaged, not operational. 23k bpd. Adnoc - 10k bpd - damaged, offline. Also they supply crude oil to SK lubricants in South Korea. That's another 20k bpd or so. Bapco - Bahrain. About 8k bpd. Offline, damaged. So yeah. That is a huge amount of the group 3 base oils for the world. Plus with Russia under sanction. Etc. Easily 60-70% of group 3s are off the market. Even if I'm over estimating. It's 40-50%. For the global market. Not just the U.S. |
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Originally Posted By xd341: Looked like Pearl had two parallel processes and only one got wrecked? Is that what you're hearing? but obviously you shut the other down to limit any future damage. I assume every other similar operation in the region is doing the same. Originally Posted By xd341: Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: So every modern oil takes group 3s to make. Group 2s would be in your old spec straight weights. The last time we had a straight group 2 base oil in a passenger car motor oil was probably around 2012. We could technically do a 5w30 and 5w20 with 0% group 3s. A dash of PAO for additive solubility. And a shit load of cold flow improver. Using a 115 VI group 2+ base oil. It's technically impossible to hit SP specs without group 3s as far as I know. Now you can hit CK4 15w40 without group 3s. It's just not great oil. Synthetic or high efficiency hydraulic oils use group 3s. Your straight normal ISO AW 32 / 46 / 68 will be group 2. Your tractor hydraulic oils will generally be group 2. The Kubota super UDT2 might have some group 3s in it. Might not. So as per the pic I had on the last page. Shell Pearl plant - Qatar. Heavily Damaged, not operational. 23k bpd. Adnoc - 10k bpd - damaged, offline. Also they supply crude oil to SK lubricants in South Korea. That's another 20k bpd or so. Bapco - Bahrain. About 8k bpd. Offline, damaged. So yeah. That is a huge amount of the group 3 base oils for the world. Plus with Russia under sanction. Etc. Easily 60-70% of group 3s are off the market. Even if I'm over estimating. It's 40-50%. For the global market. Not just the U.S. One was destroyed from my understanding. I of course don’t know the inner workings of that facility. So I don’t know if they can run just a single train. Or which one makes base oils. Etc. But it’s offline for the foreseeable future. Let alone the strait being closed. Adnoc and Bapco I also don’t know the extent of the damage. So who knows when they can restart. But you essentially have 3 weeks to get product to market. Once they do start back up. That 60 days is gonna tick away quick. |
Direction, not intention, determines destination.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
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Originally Posted By GoGo: Thank you for keeping us in the loop- and everything you do here, much appreciated. Yes, if I hadn't seen this thread I would have blindly twittered away opportunities to stock up and panicked when I realized no one had the oils I was looking for. Walmart had full shelves this afternoon, I filled my cart; someone commented as they passed by. I just said "family oil change weekend". We laughed and laughed 
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I'd leave immediately. Sometimes Muslim people just fucking blow up.
It's amazing how far stupidity and determination can take you in life.
It's amazing how far stupidity and determination can take you in life.
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Qatar Supply Disruptions Hit Pearl GTL – Potential Ripple Effects on U.S. Group III Base Oil Availability By Thomas F. Glenn, JobbersWorld Extended outage at Pearl GTL could tighten global Group III+ supply and increase pricing pressure in the U.S. market Recent missile strikes on Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City have triggered confirmed production disruptions at key energy facilities, including Shell’s Pearl gas-to-liquids (GTL) plant—one of the world’s most important sources of premium Group III+ base oils. Based on public statements from Shell (March 19–20, 2026) and QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi (March 19), along with multiple industry reports, one of Pearl GTL’s two equal-sized production trains sustained damage in the March 18 attack. As a precaution, the entire facility—rated at approximately 140,000 barrels per day—has been shut down while safety assessments and recovery planning are underway. Shell said March 20 that repairs to the damaged train could take approximately one year, while the second train remains undamaged. QatarEnergy similarly indicated the affected GTL train is expected to remain offline for at least that duration. Pearl GTL is a cornerstone supplier of high-quality GTL-derived Group III+ base oils, with estimated base oil output of roughly 30,000 barrels per day. These base stocks are widely used in high-performance passenger car motor oils, heavy-duty engine oils, and industrial lubricants requiring superior oxidation stability and low-temperature performance. In addition to base oils, the facility produces cleaner fuels, paraffins, and specialty waxes. While separate damage was reported at Qatar’s LNG infrastructure—affecting two of 14 trains, with repair timelines estimated at three to five years—the more immediate concern for the lubricants sector is the Pearl outage. Early industry signals already point to tightening global availability of Group III+ base oils, including early reports of allocations and upward price pressure. U.S. Impact Outlook The United States relies heavily on imported Group III base stocks, particularly from the Middle East. Pearl’s GTL output has long served as a consistent, high-quality supply source for U.S. blenders formulating premium lubricants. With approximately half of Pearl’s capacity expected to remain offline for an extended period: Availability of premium Group III+ base oils in the U.S. is likely to tighten. Blenders may need to adjust formulations—shifting toward conventional Group III or Group II+ where performance allows—or seek alternative supply, potentially at higher cost. Supply-chain vulnerability is elevated, particularly in the context of ongoing geopolitical tensions and earlier force majeure declarations that have already disrupted related product flows. At this stage, no immediate shortages in the U.S. market have been confirmed. However, the projected duration of the outage suggests sustained pressure on premium base oil supply through at least 2027. For jobbers and distributors, the situation underscores the importance of forward planning and close coordination with suppliers. Monitoring updates from Shell, QatarEnergy, and base oil producers will be critical as the market works to absorb the loss of one of its most significant sources of high-performance base stocks. Editor’s Note: This article is based on publicly available information and industry reports as of March 20, 2026. It reflects reasoned analysis of potential market impacts but does not constitute investment advice or guaranteed outcomes. Market conditions can change rapidly, and readers should consult their own suppliers and sources for the latest updates. |
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Originally Posted By ReConnie: I just finished ordering 3 oil changes of Ultra Platinum from Walmart. Good price. Should last me a couple of years. If things don't go as bad as it seems it won't go to waste. Now I hope gear oil and ATF don't turn into a dumpster fire. But I have time on those. That's another reason I thank Foxtrot08 for this thread and update. I'm 2 or 3 months or so from needing to change the transmission and diff oil in my car. It would have seriously sucked if Motul Gear 300 was out of stock everywhere. It shifts so smoothly with that stuff. Not so much with the oem crap. Been having the dealer change the oil in my truck for warranty purposes. The do an inspection of the drivetrain and sign off that it looks good. Guess I'll grab one change worth of oil for that too. |
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@Foxtrot08 Thank you for the tip. Ordered 9 of the 5 qt 'gallon' jugs in various weights (0w-16, 0w-20, 5w-30) to cover the cars at home. Already had about 6 of the jugs at home in a couple of weights, so should be good for 2 years' worth of oil changes (most of them had recent changes already). Edited to add: CVT fluid or Trans fluid going to get expensive too, or not too bad? |
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Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: There’s alot of mechanical reasons that could lead to the tapping. As for the oil, it would have to be shearing substantially. But your oil monitor should take the idle time into account. That being said, an oil analysis would be a cheap way to tell if you’re getting fuel dilution, or if the oil is shearing down. As that would be two reasons why the ticking begins. Otherwise, it may be as simple as a worn out oil pump. That just isn’t pushing the right GPM at idle. Or maybe just a little bit of varnish build up on the lifters that’s leading to a little bit of interference ticking. Etc. Oil pump pickup o ring degradation is not uncommon |
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Originally Posted By AFARR: @Foxtrot08 Thank you for the tip. Ordered 9 of the 5 qt 'gallon' jugs in various weights (0w-16, 0w-20, 5w-30) to cover the cars at home. Already had about 6 of the jugs at home in a couple of weights, so should be good for 2 years' worth of oil changes (most of them had recent changes already). Edited to add: CVT fluid or Trans fluid going to get expensive too, or not too bad? They’re all group 3s. Transmission fluids. So it will be affected. But to what exact extent, because of inventory is another question. |
Direction, not intention, determines destination.
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Originally Posted By URSATDX: Reladyne/PPC ring a bell? As my direct competitor and the largest private equity backed oil distributor in the world? Yes. I know the former CEOs. |
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Originally Posted By RTX: Hy-Gard? Originally Posted By RTX: Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Your tractor hydraulic oils will generally be group 2. The Kubota super UDT2 might have some group 3s in it. Might not. Hy-Gard? Should be fine. J20C is pretty old technology. |
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Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Should be fine. J20C is pretty old technology. Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Originally Posted By RTX: Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Your tractor hydraulic oils will generally be group 2. The Kubota super UDT2 might have some group 3s in it. Might not. Hy-Gard? Should be fine. J20C is pretty old technology. Thank you. But...Mother Deere probably wouldn't like the sound of that. 
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Talking with my father about it all and now he's worried sick about being able to afford his Schaeffer's oil for all of his farm tractors and trucks. I should be good on Mobil 1 and Valvoline VR1 for the foreseeable future. Though I should probably stock up on my ATF and gear oils. Something I haven't seen mentioned is conventional vs synthetic being affected? It would be very cool if someone had populated a list of all affected brands/types/ratings from this info. I would attempt it but I'm far too stupid. |
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Thanks for the heads up on the impending motor oil situation. I stopped at Walmart and got enough PZ Platinum to keep my household vehicles going. I had an odd day today. Pulled and plugged an old gas well using a battery powered service rig. My only EV and it weighs 100k lbs. Ha. I hadn't anticipated the diesel vs kW cost benefit to be quite this aggressive. 
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For you guys stocking up, don't forget that it's also spring rebate time for Delvac and Delo (not sure about Shell). Pretty painless way to get the cost of these oils down quite a bit with some rebates up to $10/gallon. Check the limits and maximize your rebates by mixing some gallon jugs with 2.5s and buckets. Delo rebates Delvac rebates |
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Originally Posted By RTX: For you guys stocking up, don't forget that it's also spring rebate time for Delvac and Delo (not sure about Shell). Pretty painless way to get the cost of these oils down quite a bit with some rebates up to $10/gallon. Check the limits and maximize your rebates by mixing some gallon jugs with 2.5s and buckets. Delo rebates Delvac rebates Thanks! Been doing the Delvac one for years and it just kept getting more restrictive. Thanks to Fox, will be doing a couple of Delo ones this year. |
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Originally Posted By JavaGuru: @Foxtrot08, sorry if this has been discussed but I wasn’t successful with search. What oil would you recommend for a BMW S58 engine (0W-30 LL-01 FE). My free yearly oil changes are about to end and was looking for good options. Fuchs titan 0w30 if you wanted to stay with German space magic. Otherwise, whatever flavor euro 0w30 / 5w30 that meets the LL-01 approval. |
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Originally Posted By 338Lapooaahh: Talking with my father about it all and now he's worried sick about being able to afford his Schaeffer's oil for all of his farm tractors and trucks. I should be good on Mobil 1 and Valvoline VR1 for the foreseeable future. Though I should probably stock up on my ATF and gear oils. Something I haven't seen mentioned is conventional vs synthetic being affected? It would be very cool if someone had populated a list of all affected brands/types/ratings from this info. I would attempt it but I'm far too stupid. Basically every brand will be affected. To what scale is hard to say right now. |
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Originally Posted By TowerTasteless: How hard is this stuff to refine? This seems like a good oppurtunity to try and tweak the USA's setup and try and produce at least enough for our own market. It’s the hydrocracking process. There’s a little bit of group 3s made in North America. Not much is the problem. Both Chevron and XOM intend to make group 3s in North America. Just not till Q4 or so of this year. Possibly Q1-Q2 of next year. It’s a balance because lubricants is the red headed step child of the petroleum products world. So investment on it is thin. Converting a facility from Group 2s to group 3s will cost hundreds of millions, if not billions of dollars. So they historically were made overseas where the input costs are lower. The shell pearl plant essentially had no input costs on their natural gas. |
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Went out to Walfart last night and bought a couple of jugs to supplement my stash, thanks again to Foxtrot for the heads up. Pennzoil is still offering rebates, you have to buy two (2) 5 QT jugs or ten (10) 1 QT bottles to get the rebate. https://www.pennzoil.com/en_us/promotions/do-it-yourself-oil-change/rewards.html |
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Thanks for the heads up. I was already a couple oil changes ahead supply wise but figured it would not hurt to grab a little more since prices are still pretty decent. A few hundred bucks later between wally world and napa I often wonder if it would just be easier to keep my head in the sand?  |
Originally Posted By ar-jedi:
SO MUCH WIN IN ONE POST IT COULD CRASH ARFCOM !!!
SO MUCH WIN IN ONE POST IT COULD CRASH ARFCOM !!!
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Thanks for the heads-up, Foxtrot. I've been picking up jugs of oil since Friday, stocking up for what may be a long period of scarcity for motor oil. I have four vehicles I maintain plus lots of power equipment. I don't want to run low on oil in the middle of hurricane season, especially if we end up getting something this year. The past 4 seasons have been extremely quiet, so we're due for something soon. I should have about a 2-year supply of oil depending on how much driving we do. I'm not hearing anything about this anywhere except for this thread. I presume no one knows or realizes what's coming. Whatever is coming, you are the only person sounding the alarm. The shelves here are still full of oil, although last week, some of the employees at the Wal Mart near my house told me that they were not expecting a new shipment of PUP 5w30 until next month. At the time, I found that odd. Those Wal Mart trucks roll several times a week and motor oil seems like something they'd have little trouble keeping in stock. Come to think of it, they have not had PUP 5w30 in stock for at least a month. Any idea when the shortages are going to get noticed by the public? Once folks realize what's about to happen, I expect a major rush on remaining inventory as people begin to panic buy. I may pick up a few jugs of Super Tech for family and friends who were not able to prepare for the shortages. |
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Originally Posted By TheLASwamp: Thanks for the heads-up, Foxtrot. I've been picking up jugs of oil since Friday, stocking up for what may be a long period of scarcity for motor oil. I have four vehicles I maintain plus lots of power equipment. I don't want to run low on oil in the middle of hurricane season, especially if we end up getting something this year. The past 4 seasons have been extremely quiet, so we're due for something soon. I should have about a 2-year supply of oil depending on how much driving we do. I'm not hearing anything about this anywhere except for this thread. I presume no one knows or realizes what's coming. Whatever is coming, you are the only person sounding the alarm. The shelves here are still full of oil, although last week, some of the employees at the Wal Mart near my house told me that they were not expecting a new shipment of PUP 5w30 until next month. At the time, I found that odd. Those Wal Mart trucks roll several times a week and motor oil seems like something they'd have little trouble keeping in stock. Come to think of it, they have not had PUP 5w30 in stock for at least a month. Any idea when the shortages are going to get noticed by the public? Once folks realize what's about to happen, I expect a major rush on remaining inventory as people begin to panic buy. I may pick up a few jugs of Super Tech for family and friends who were not able to prepare for the shortages. I suspect price increases will hit mid April. Large companies like that normally have a 30 day notice period. Shortages are probably 30-45 days away, less on certain products that just don’t have strong inventory anyways. Things like your 0w16 and such. |
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Originally Posted By SamBoga: United is planning for oil to stay above $100 until the end of next year https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HD5MkyAboAMZOaf?format=jpg&name=medium Oil above $150 or $175 and the US goes deep into a recession. Trump wants no part of that before the midterms. Something will give. |
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Originally Posted By jwnc: Oil above $150 or $175 and the US goes deep into a recession. Trump wants no part of that before the midterms. Something will give. Originally Posted By jwnc: Originally Posted By SamBoga: United is planning for oil to stay above $100 until the end of next year https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HD5MkyAboAMZOaf?format=jpg&name=medium Oil above $150 or $175 and the US goes deep into a recession. Trump wants no part of that before the midterms. Something will give. This. While the market is global, the US can increase supply if incentivized to do so. Trump is big on incentives, so I would expect there is likely a call going on to US producers to open the flood gates on domestic oil. It would be unwise for any oil company to do anything that gives the left power...their best interests are to keep T in office. |
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Originally Posted By FedDC: I'm sure its a rough Monday in the world of oil, but big picture...what does this mean? How much of a problem will this be? For how long? At least, that was my takeaway from how Fox described the upcoming situation. |
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Originally Posted By TheLASwamp: Based on what Fox has said, it sounds like it's going to be pretty bad. It's not just going to be expensive oil changes. Oil is going to be expensive when you can find it. At least, that was my takeaway from how Fox described the upcoming situation. Originally Posted By TheLASwamp: Originally Posted By FedDC: I'm sure its a rough Monday in the world of oil, but big picture...what does this mean? How much of a problem will this be? For how long? At least, that was my takeaway from how Fox described the upcoming situation. Chat GPT is summarizing it as this with publicly available information which is not much at the moment. There is a legitimate disruption happening in the Group III base oil market right now. Several major Group III production facilities in the Middle East have been taken offline or disrupted, which has removed a significant portion of global capacity. At the same time, shipping disruptions in the Persian Gulf are slowing exports of base oils and petrochemicals. Industry groups like ILMA have already asked for temporary flexibility on certification requirements (such as GM Dexos) because lubricant manufacturers may have trouble obtaining the exact base stocks required for certain formulas. Group III base oils are used heavily in modern synthetic motor oils, so if supply stays tight it could lead to: higher prices for synthetic oils limited availability of certain brands or viscosities reformulation of some oils using different base stocks Some distributors are already preparing for extended tight supply conditions through 2026. According to what Foxtrot08 has posted it's worse than being reported. I decided to error on the side of caution and added a few extra gallons of what I use in my stuff, so I am good on oil changes well beyond 2026 at this point. |
Originally Posted By ar-jedi:
SO MUCH WIN IN ONE POST IT COULD CRASH ARFCOM !!!
SO MUCH WIN IN ONE POST IT COULD CRASH ARFCOM !!!
Foxtrot08 makes an oil thread! (Page 40 of 160)
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