The aurora alert today is a 5.  

https://www.gi.alaska.edu/monitors/aurora-forecast

June 28, 2024 @ 10:20 UTC (UPDATED)
Not at all expected, a Severe (G4) geomagnetic storm is in progress following a CME passage Friday morning. The solar wind speed increased to near 500 km/s and the plasma density showed a nice increase as well over the past few hours. Needless to say, the timing is not great for aurora sky watchers in Europe and most of North America with sunlight now upon us. Further updates will be provided as the day progresses.



ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 8, 9-
Threshold Reached: 2024 Jun 28 1415 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G4 - Severe

Live Discussion about what set off the storm.  Looks like it's a filament.

June 29, 2024 @ 13:20 UTC
Before the geomagnetic storm on Friday which took place during the daylight here in North America, a period of enhanced activity late Thursday night and into early Friday morning was enough to generate aurora at higher latitudes.
Tabatha Holt sends us the nice aurora photo below that she captured from Somerville, Maine. Thanks for sharing!

June 29, 2024 @ 17:00 UTC
A filament located in the southern hemisphere lifted off the Sun beginning around 15:00 UTC (Jun 29). This will likely fling a coronal mass ejection into space, however the trajectory should be mostly south of the Sun-Earth line. A further update will be provided once updated coronagraph imagery is available.

UPDATE: A coronal mass ejection (CME) is now visible in the latest coronagraph imagery (see below).

July 1, 2024 @ 19:00 UTC
I would like to wish all of my fellow Canadian viewers a Happy Canada Day. I hope you all have a safe and enjoyable holiday.
Solar activity reached moderate levels on Monday thanks to a quick M2.1 solar flare around AR 3730 at 11:02 UTC. Other than that event, solar activity has been fairly quiet with only occasional low level C-Flares detected. No Earth directed eruptions were visible in the latest coronagraph imagery.

Just wanted to say I appreciate you posting this every day.  One of the threads I check as soon as it updates. I'm a high school teacher who does some science-y stuff, and this thread's really going to help when we go back to the classroom.

July 2, 2024 @ 22:10 UTC
Valentine`s Day is not until February, but the Sun wanted to show us a little love with this heart shaped plasma structure. This was the result of a filament eruption within the past few hours near the northwest limb. Other than happy thoughts, no major impacts should be expected.

July 4, 2024 @ 10:00 UTC
I would like to wish a happy Independence Day to my friends to the south. I hope you all have a great holiday.
Solar activity during the past 24 hours was low with a number of minor C-Flares detected around various regions, including a potential active region approaching the southeast limb. An isolated moderate M-Flare will remain possible with AR 3729 or 3733 being the most likely sources on the visible disk.

Stay tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest space weather news and information.

July 6, 2024 @ 02:50 UTC
Good evening. Solar activity during the past 24 hours nearly reached moderate levels with a number of mid to upper level C-Flares detected off the southwest limb. Elsewhere, newly assigned sunspot region 3738 turned into view and appears to be growing. This region will be monitored as it continues to rotate into a better position. Old regions 3712, 3713 and 3716 from the previous rotation are about 48 hours away from turning back into view.
Stay tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest space weather news and information.

July 7, 2024 @ 21:50 UTC
The remains of AR 3712 and 3713 are now about to turn back into view from off the southeast limb. Low level M-Flares including this M1.3 flare are now being detected. Perhaps an end to the solar quiet is finally upon us. Image below by SDO/AIA 094a.

July 8, 2024 @ 17:00 UTC
The remains of AR 3712 and 3713 continue to turn back into view and clearly they both decayed heavily while on the farside of the Sun. Despite this, occasional C-Flares and one low level M-Flare were detected around the remnants of AR 3712 today so far. The chances for stronger solar flares above the M5.0 threshold is likely much lower than what may have otherwise been expected. AR 3738 is currently the largest sunspot region on the visible disk and remain will a threat for an isolated M-Flare.
Stay tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest space weather news and information.

July 10, 2024 @ 01:30 UTC
AR 3738 showed signs of development on Tuesday as rotates into an almost direct Earth facing position. The active region is currently producing minor C-Flares and will remain a threat for moderate M-Flares. All other regions have been for the most part stable.

Thanks for the updates!

July 11, 2024 @ 00:50 UTC
Coronal hole #52 is now facing Earth. A solar wind stream flowing from this zone is predicted to reach our planet by July 13th. A minor (G1) geomagnetic storm watch will be in effect beginning late on Saturday and into Sunday (UTC).

It's clearly Climate Change. We've not only fucked this planet, but the closest star, too.

Hopefully I’ll see aurora in Iowa again

July 13, 2024 @ 12:55 UTC (UPDATED)
An M5.3 solar flare was just detected around AR 3738 peaking at 12:42 UTC (Jul 13). Plasma movement is seen following the event meaning a coronal mass ejection (CME) will be possible. Further updates will be provided whenever necessary.
UPDATE: The M5.3 solar flare this morning was associated with a Type II radio emission with an estimated velocity of only 295 km/s. Although some dimming was observed following the event, a noteworthy CME does not appear evident in the latest coronagraph imagery.

X-Flare
July 14, 2024 @ 03:45 UTC (UPDATED)
AR 3738 produced a strong X1.2 solar flare peaking at 02:34 UTC (Jul 14). Based on incoming imagery, it does not appear that this event will be associated with a noteworthy CME. The region became very active the past 24 hours with multiple M-Flares detected leading up to this X-Flare event.

Attached File

July 15, 2024 @ 19:25 UTC
The visible solar disk is peppered with sunspots today. Solar activity during the past 24 hours was at moderate levels with a number of low level M-Flares detected around AR 3738. This region continues to move closer towards the west limb and potential eruptions around it at this point should be directed mostly away from Earth. Elsewhere, both AR 3743 and 3744 near center disk have been producing occasional C-Flares. AR 3751 in the southeast quadrant and newly assigned AR 3753 near center disk both appear to be growing.

July 16, 2024 @ 15:30 UTC
High solar activity on Tuesday morning with an X1.9 solar flare around AR 3738 nearing the west limb. A coronal mass ejection (CME) is now visible and should be mostly directed away from Earth. A further update will be provided should an Earth directed component be associated.
ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Jul 16 1321 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 516 km/s.

July 17, 2024 @ 20:00 UTC
A filament located near the southeast limb lifted off beginning around 18:30 UTC (July 17). This should fling some plasma into space, but should be directed away from Earth.
Other activity on Wednesday included M5.0 and M3.4 flare events around AR 3743 in the southwest quadrant. A number coronal mass ejections were observed the past few days leaving the Sun. Although most appear to be headed away from our planet, at least one of them may be somewhat Earth directed. Possible transient effects will be possible over the next 48-72 hours.

July 19, 2024 @ 20:30 UTC
Solar activity continues at moderate levels as we head into the weekend with occasional M-Flares and minor C-Flares detected. The strongest flare during the past 24 hours was an M3.2 around AR 3753 at 08:23 UTC (Jul 19). Earth facing AR 3751 chipped in with an M2.0 at 18:08 UTC. This region is now directly facing Earth and will remain a threat for at least moderate M-Flares. A new sunspot region is forming just to the east of AR 3751 and should be assigned AR 3761. No Earth directed eruptions of plasma are visible today in the latest coronagraph imagery.

July 22, 2024 @ 09:05 UTC
A filament eruption on Sunday in the vicinity of AR 3757 was apparently responsible for a faint halo CME observed leaving the Sun after 17:00 UTC (Jul 21). Although the bulk of plasma appears to be headed to the north, a passage past Earth may be possible within 72 hours. A moderate (G2) geomagnetic storm watch was added for July 24th should an impact take place. Another update will be provided later today once an official tracking model becomes available.
In other news, AR 3762 in the southeast quadrant has become active with couple of moderate M-Flares detected. The largest event so far was an M3.9 flare at 04:04 UTC (Jul 22).

CME Update: The updated CME tracking model is calling for the faint halo CME to pass Earth by late on July 23rd (UTC) or early July 24th. Aurora sky watchers at higher latitudes should be alert beginning Tuesday.

July 23, 2024 @ 01:45 UTC (UPDATED)
A fast moving, impressive full halo coronal mass ejection (CME) is now emerging in the latest imagery courtesy of LASCO C2. Based on additional imagery by the solar dynamics observatory (SDO), the event took place well beyond the west limb and is directed away from our planet. Despite being farsided, it is possible that we may still see a proton enhancement from this energetic event. Because the CME itself is directed away from Earth, it will not result in a geomagnetic storm.
UPDATE: A minor (S1) radiation storm is now in progress as proton levels streaming past Earth gradually increase.

July 23, 2024 @ 20:05 UTC (UPDATED)
It appears that a faint halo CME observed on Sunday has passed the ACE spacecraft and should reach our planet within an hour or so. So far the solar wind speed increase is fairly minor to near 330 km/s. More updates in the hours ahead.

Thanks! Possible auroras !

UPDATE: The CME impact was much weaker than expected. Based on the current solar wind condtions, geomagnetic storming appears unlikely. A further update will be provided should conditions change.

Thanks for doing this updates.   I want to say again I read every one of them when you post it.   Doing great!

July 24, 2024 @ 17:10 UTC
Solar activity during the past 24 hours continued at moderate levels. AR 3751 nearing the west limb produced a rapid M3.6 solar flare at 07:42 UTC (Jul 24). Moderate M-Flares will remain possible during the next 24 hours with a small chance for a major X-Flare.
- The long duration M2.4 flare near the east limb on Tuesday did produce a coronal mass ejection (CME) that appears to be heading away from Earth.

- The minor (S1) radiation storm related to a large farsided eruption early Tuesday morning subsided after nearly 24 hours.

- The weak CME passage on Tuesday failed to generate a geomagnetic storm. A watch remains in effect for now, however based on current solar wind conditions, it appears unlikely that storming will materialize. Further updates will be provided should conditions change.

Stay tuned to SolarHam.com for the most up to date space weather news and information.

\uD83C\uDF1E \uD83E\uDD29 \uD83D\uDE31 WOW! Yesterday's far-sided eruption was a doozy! Solar Orbiter STIX estimated the associated flare to be an X14 in an error range of X7 to X30.  Look at that snow on the camera! Those are PROTONS! \uD83D\uDE2E Crazy stuff. \uD83E\uDEE3 \uD83E\uDDD0

Protons are starting to die down at Earth.\uD83E\uDD14 \uD83D\uDE0E pic.twitter.com/vP0JgxWAWt

Dr. C. Alex Young  (@TheSunToday) July 24, 2024

July 26, 2024 @ 00:05 UTC
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) is currently tipped south (-12nT). The solar wind speed is also at elevated levels following an apparent CME passage earlier today and is nearing 500 km/s. Enhanced geomagnetic activity (Kp4) will be possible in the hours ahead. Minor (G1) geomagnetic storming may be possible should the Bz/IMF component remain in a south pointing orientation.

July 26, 2024 @ 01:00 UTC
The major farsided event that produced the bright CME a few days ago was estimated to be approximately an X14, clearly the strongest solar flare of Cycle 25. This data was provided by the Solar Orbiter (SolO) spacecraft which was developed by the European Space Agency (ESA). Based on the trajectory of the CME and Helioseismic imagery, old sunspot region 3738 would seem like the most likely source. We should begin to see this region reappear by the middle of next week (July 31st).

Most powerful flare of the solar cycle so far, most impressive. That would have been spicy had it been Earth facing. Hopefully the next one will be.

Same here.  Appreciated.

Might be great for auroras, but may not be great for living.

https://earthsky.org/sun/the-next-solar-cycle-already-beginning-solar-cycle-26/

The next solar cycle – Solar Cycle 26 – is already beginning
Astronomers using helioseismology have peered into the sun to see a pattern indicating the next solar cycle - Solar Cycle 26 - is already beginning.

Rest at link above.

\uD83C\uDF1E \uD83D\uDCF0 Sun news July 25: Solar deja vu, but action incoming

\uD83D\uDC4F Welcome to Solar Maximum. Sometimes, during the peak of a solar cycle, we see days or weeks of large flares and many Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs).

MORE at EarthSky: https://t.co/xD29wLfm4e pic.twitter.com/cl8oLHkUaw

Dr. C. Alex Young  (@TheSunToday) July 25, 2024

Sun news July 26: Early sun stuff arrived at Earth and more tonight

https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates/

Today’s top story:   Solar stuff arrived earlier today for a G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm  Kp = 5 threshold reached at 5:41 UTC on July 26. Conditions for more G1 storming are anticipated for tonight with the arrival of solar material that left the sun on July 23. A moderate level day with the production of two M flares -read detail below- and more action coming our way. Meanwhile, from the far side of our star, here is some update information: Solar Orbiter STIX X-ray telescope, now located almost directly on the far side of our sun, observed and captured data of flares as large as an X7 and X1 (with an error range). Also, a halo CME we saw yesterday from the far side was associated with the X7 flare. In the next days these active regions producing these large flares will rotate into view on the Earth-facing side.  “Something wicked this way comes”. Keep tuned.

Last 24 hours: Sun activity continues at moderate levels due to two M flares. We have not seen more M flares despite the solar disk having an active region showing a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration, AR3762, and a couple more with a gamma-beta complexity, the now gone AR3751 and AR3761 but flaring production kept at similar levels as yesterday. Between 11 UTC yesterday and 11 UTC today, our star released 18 flares (two Ms and 16 C flares). The first M was an M1.3 flare at 15:37 UTC on July 25 from AR3751. An R1 (minor) radio blackout was observed affecting an area over the Atlantic Ocean south of Bermuda. The second M was the largest flare of the period, an M1.7 flare at 4:42 UTC on July 26 from AR34761. R1 (minor) radio blackout over Hainan in China. More M and X flares are expected with the higher potential of AR3662. We will keep observing. The lead flare producer title for the period is shared by AR3751 and AR3761, who produced five flares each, each with an M and four C flares. They were shortly followed behind by active region  AR3762, which produced four C flares. The sun currently has nine numbered active regions, with a newcomer in the southeast: AR3767.

Next 24 hours: The chance for C flares is 99%. The chance for M flares is 60%. The chance for X flares is 10%.
Next expected CME: Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed after C class flaring production from active region AR3762. Solar ejecta from these events will likely reach us at Earth by July 29.  No additional Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available imagery.

Current geomagnetic activity: Earth’s magnetic field is active at the time of this writing (11 UTC on July 26). The expected coronal mass ejection (CME) arrived early but did not bring much disturbance immediately. However, a G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm occurred today, July 26. More isolated active periods could continue today as any CME influences wane. Quiet conditions are expected to persist through late July 26, when unsettled-to-active levels are expected with any shock arrival from an event on the east limb on July 23. A G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm is likely on July 27, caused by glancing effects from the CME produced by AR3751 on July 23. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected to prevail on July 28 as any lingering CME effects wane.


Lots of pics/videos at link.

I heart this thread.

July 27, 2024 @ 02:55 UTC
A moderate M4.2 solar flare was just detected around AR 3766 at 02:37 UTC (July 27). Both 3766 and AR 3767 showed signs of development during the past 24 hours and will be monitored for additional activity. Elsehwere, a number of minor C-Flares were detected on Friday around various regions on the disk. No Earth directed coronal mass ejections were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

July 27, 2024 @ 07:05 UTC
A bright coronal mass ejection (CME) is again emerging off the farside of the Sun beginning around 4:45 UTC (Jul 27). Data provided by the Solar Orbiter Spacecraft (SoIO) is showing a solar flare reaching at least the X1.0 threshold at 04:30 UTC. One can only hope that the source of these farsided events will remain active once it turns into view next week.
Meanwhile on the Earth facing side, a long duration M3.1 flare was observed around AR 3762 at 05:43 UTC (Jul 27). This was associated with a 10cm radio burst (TenFlare) measuring 320 sfu and lasting 6 minutes. A wave of plasma can be seen in AIA 093 imagery following this event, so somewhat of a CME may be possible More updates regarding this later this morning.

https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates/

Sun news July 27: AR3751 keeps flaring gorgeous prominences
Today’s top story:  The just departed M flare producer of the week, active region AR3751 keeps producing its flares now being seen at the very edge of the west horizon via gorgeous prominences such as the one on our top image as captured by GOES-16. Meanwhile, sun activity reached moderate levels with the production of two M flares fired during our observation period between 11 UTC yesterday and 11 UTC today. The largest was an M4.2 flare at 2:37 UTC on July 27 by AR3766 which provoked an R1 (minor) radio blackout that affected an area over the Philippine Sea. Read below all the information. All this occurred while we await for the big guys,  producers of the X7 and X1 flares observed by the Solar Orbiter’s STIX X-ray telescope a couple of days ago on the far side of our sun, to show on the west horizon. For now, solar activity is all around the edge with dancing long lasting prominences and jets.  Wait for more as our sun goes through its Solar Max of Solar Cycle 25 this year 2024. Stay with us.

Last 24 hours:  Solar activity keeps at moderate levels due to a couple of M flares fired over the past day. The sun keeps giving us our dose of a daily couple of Ms. The first M of the period was the largest, it was an M4.2 flare at 2:37 UTC on July 27 by AR3766. An R1 (minor) radio blackout was momentarily observed affecting an area over the Philippine Sea. The second M  was an M3.1 flare fired by active region AR3762 at 5:46 UTC on July 27. Its correspondent R1 (minor) radio blackout was over Myanmar. During our observation period between 11 UTC yesterday and 11 UTC today, the sun exploded a total of 15 flares; the mentioned two Ms added 13 C flares. Lead flare producer of the day was sunspot region AR3762 producing six flares during the period, an M plus five Cs. The sun currently has 10 numbered active regions. There two newcomers: AR3768, a sunspot region that emerged in the south now located close to the central meridian and active region AR3769 who came in through the northeast limb (edge).  Among the 10 labeled active regions on the solar disk, unspot region AR3762 keeps its high potential beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration, and AR3761 has a gamma-beta complexity. The rest of the eight sunspot regions are either stable or in decay showing either alpha or beta configurations.

Next 24 hours: The chance for C flares is 99%. The chance for M flares is 60%. The chance for X flares is 10%.

Next expected CME: No Earth-oriented coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in the available imagery.
Current geomagnetic activity: Earth’s magnetic field is quiet at the time of this writing (11 UTC on July 27). The anticipated arrival of a coronal mass ejection (CME)  did not bring much disturbance. The expected G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm  only reached Kp = 4 level late yesterday. For the rest of the day quiet to unsettled levels are expected due fast solar wind from a coronal hole and influences of the CME from July 23 wane. These conditions of quiet to unsettled may be extended through July 28. July may see some increased activity with the arrival of a CME that left the sun on July 25.

July 27, 2024 @ 07:05 UTC (UPDATED)
A very busy morning in terms of eruptions on the Sun and when you look closely, there are at least three plasma clouds now visible. The first one I reported on appears to be farsided. CME #2 and #3 however may be Earth facing and possibly directed our way. A minor (G1) geomagnetic storm watch was added for July 29th in the meantime while we await an official tracking model courtesy of NOAA/SWPC. Click HERE for a movie.
UPDATE: An updated CME model by the Goddard Space Flight Center shows the farsided CME path I first reported on early this morning. This is contrary to an initial report by NOAA/SWPC that the CME was related to the Earth facing M4 solar flare at 02:37 UTC. With that said, the geomagnetic forecast was just updated to show minor (G1) storming possible on July 30th instead of the 29th. A further update will be provided later this evening.

July 28, 2024 @ 02:45 UTC (UPDATED)
Just about as close to an X-Flare as you can get. An M9.9 event was detected around AR 3766 at 01:57 UTC (July 28). A type II radio emission with an estimated velocity of 943 km/s was recorded. A wave of plasma is visible meaning an Earth directed coronal mass ejection (CME) will be possible with this event. More to follow.
UPDATE: The M9.9 solar flare observed around AR 3766 did produce a fairly slow moving halo CME that appears Earth directed. A passage past Earth will be possible within 72 hours. At least one other CME from the flurry of eruptions the past few days is also expected to pass our planet and is predicted to contribute to moderate (G2) geomagnetic storming.