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Posted: 12/5/2020 8:27:40 AM EDT
[#1]
The Fourth Turning.
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Posted: 12/5/2020 8:28:33 AM EDT
[#2]
Seems pretty common in history. People don't realize that the US is the 3rd oldest country in the world after San Marino and Sweden. Every other country has changed their form of government since we were founded, usually violently. Seems to be human nature.
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Posted: 12/5/2020 8:31:15 AM EDT
[#3]
Quoted: There has always been a lot of repeated things, without many cites, that Republics/Democracies have a lifespan of 200-250 years. Many supposedly end in a similar fashion, through similar means. Supposedly Rome was only a Republic for around 300 years then changed into basically a dictatorship. Athens only had a form of Republic for a couple of hundred years. At this time America has been a "Republic" for around 240 years. I would guess that every form of government has a life span. Actual monarchies lasts x amount of time and died out. Communism lasts x amount of years and destroys it self. It seems that all forms of government eventually destroy themselves. Is it true that Republics/Democracies last around 200-250 years? Is that where America is at, the end of a Republics lifespan? Will it end similarly to the others? Being morphed into some other form of repressive government until full destruction? FWIW Rome largely remained a republic but with a dictator at the top under the emperors. Which compared to the late republic’s infighting, corruption, and civil wars was a stabilizing, moderating influence as long as the emperor was at least semi-competent. It was even great under good emperors. Unfortunately many weren’t... |
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Posted: 12/5/2020 8:32:59 AM EDT
[#4]
It's called the Tytler Cycle.
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world's greatest civilizations has been 200 years. These nations have progressed through this sequence: From bondage to spiritual faith; From spiritual faith to great courage; From courage to liberty; From liberty to abundance; From abundance to selfishness; From selfishness to apathy; From apathy to dependence; From dependence back into bondage.” ? Alexander Fraser Tytler |
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Posted: 12/5/2020 8:35:55 AM EDT
[#5]
If china joe does get in then the left will drive this bitch into the ground.
Let it burn |
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Posted: 12/5/2020 8:37:31 AM EDT
[#6]
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Posted: 12/5/2020 8:40:19 AM EDT
[#7]
I am sure that "this time is different" especially when we have replaced our demographics.
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Posted: 12/5/2020 8:41:52 AM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It's called the Tytler Cycle. “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world's greatest civilizations has been 200 years. These nations have progressed through this sequence: From bondage to spiritual faith; From spiritual faith to great courage; From courage to liberty; From liberty to abundance; From abundance to selfishness; From selfishness to apathy; From apathy to dependence; From dependence back into bondage.” ? Alexander Fraser Tytler  |
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Posted: 12/5/2020 8:51:01 AM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It's called the Tytler Cycle. “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world's greatest civilizations has been 200 years. These nations have progressed through this sequence: From bondage to spiritual faith; From spiritual faith to great courage; From courage to liberty; From liberty to abundance; From abundance to selfishness; From selfishness to apathy; From apathy to dependence; From dependence back into bondage.” ? Alexander Fraser Tytler I don't think much of that is correct. It just wraps up a nice little package for people to digest and believe. |
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Posted: 12/5/2020 8:52:15 AM EDT
[#10]
Modern republics are rather recent and nobody knows their limits, or whether they're hothouse flowers that only thrive under special conditions.
Sir John Glubb ("Glubb Pasha"), a British officer who served with Arabs in WW2 and after, wrote a book where he hypothesizes that large empires lasted an average of 250 years (he separated Rome into republic and empire phases.) It was called "The Fate of Empires and the Search for Survival." It's out of print but you can find digital copies. |
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Posted: 12/5/2020 8:53:31 AM EDT
[#11]
I wonder if the prior republics that failed or "disappeared" did so due to rampant fraud?
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Posted: 12/5/2020 8:56:50 AM EDT
[#12]
If you’re lucky. I read an article about the statistic likelihood of being alive during a revolution, civil war, or global war. Basically it works out to be not a matter of if, but when over the course of a human lifespan.
I explained this to my parents and they got it. I asked Jen how many countries they learned about in high school still even exist. Half of Europe is different and shit the lines of countries in Africa move every day. We are due. We are fighting normalcy bias because everyone here has known America the way it is now for their whole life. But yeah, not a matter of if but when. The Venezuelan time line scares me. Used to be rich and happy. Now a shithole. All following the path we seem to be taking |
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Posted: 12/5/2020 8:58:46 AM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Seems pretty common in history. People don't realize that the US is the 3rd oldest country in the world after San Marino and Sweden. Every other country has changed their form of government since we were founded, usually violently. Seems to be human nature. Another thing people don't realize is that throughout history people having the freedoms and liberties like we have in the US, and take for granted, is an extremely rare occurrence, that the majority of mans existence on this planet has been lived under the rule, control, and enslavement by others. |
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Posted: 12/5/2020 8:59:47 AM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryWe are 1 step further up on that actually. |
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Posted: 12/5/2020 9:11:02 AM EDT
[#15]
As to keeping a Republic and the Executive Franklin was no fool and time has proven him mostly correct.
“The first man put at the helm will be a good one. Nobody knows what sort may come afterwards, the executive will be always increasing here, as elsewhere, till it ends in a monarchy.” Maybe not a monarchy (the 1700s version of a dictator) but the ever increasing power of the executive branch amounts to the same thing. That is what happens when a Republic's legislative body fails to legislate except when it's at the whim of the Executive as in the case when one party controls the executive and legislative branches. The final nail in the coffin of the republic will be when there is one party control and the filibuster is eliminated with no protections for the minority. History also tells us what happens then.....Civil War. Then there is the "free shit" used for political ends, Franklin spoke of that too and how it's not good for maintaining a republic. “Because the people, on tasting the dish, are always disposed to eat more of it than does them good.” |
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Posted: 12/5/2020 9:12:10 AM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Except Tytler really didn't say it. Henning Webb Prentiss did in 1943 during his speech titled: "Industrial Management in a Republic". |
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Posted: 12/5/2020 9:18:45 AM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted: As to keeping a Republic and the Executive Franklin was no fool and time has proven him mostly correct. “The first man put at the helm will be a good one. Nobody knows what sort may come afterwards, the executive will be always increasing here, as elsewhere, till it ends in a monarchy.” Maybe not a monarchy (the 1700s version of a dictator) but the ever increasing power of the executive branch amounts to the same thing. That is what happens when a Republic's legislative body fails to legislate except when it's at the whim of the Executive as in the case when one party controls the executive and legislative branches. The final nail in the coffin of the republic will be when there is one party control and the filibuster is eliminated with no protections for the minority. History also tells us what happens then.....Civil War. Then there is the "free shit" used for political ends, Franklin spoke of that too and how it's not good for maintaining a republic. “Because the people, on tasting the dish, are always disposed to eat more of it than does them good.” I do not believe the Founding Fathers intended for us to have a two-party system. While your statement in red has real merit, I don't entirely agree with it. However, as to your statement in blue I could not agree more. |
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Posted: 12/5/2020 9:21:02 AM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted: As to keeping a Republic and the Executive Franklin was no fool and time has proven him mostly correct. “The first man put at the helm will be a good one. Nobody knows what sort may come afterwards, the executive will be always increasing here, as elsewhere, till it ends in a monarchy.” Maybe not a monarchy (the 1700s version of a dictator) but the ever increasing power of the executive branch amounts to the same thing. That is what happens when a Republic's legislative body fails to legislate except when it's at the whim of the Executive as in the case when one party controls the executive and legislative branches. The final nail in the coffin of the republic will be when there is one party control and the filibuster is eliminated with no protections for the minority. History also tells us what happens then.....Civil War. Then there is the "free shit" used for political ends, Franklin spoke of that too and how it's not good for maintaining a republic. “Because the people, on tasting the dish, are always disposed to eat more of it than does them good.” I’m betting there are many here hoping for another $1,200 stimulus check. Sad. |
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Posted: 12/5/2020 9:21:42 AM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Seems pretty common in history. People don't realize that the US is the 3rd oldest country in the world after San Marino and Sweden. Every other country has changed their form of government since we were founded, usually violently. Seems to be human nature. Things get too good, people get lazy and complacent. |
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Posted: 12/5/2020 9:21:55 AM EDT
[#20]
It goes as long as we can keep it
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Posted: 12/5/2020 9:25:56 AM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I don't think much of that is correct. It just wraps up a nice little package for people to digest and believe. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: It's called the Tytler Cycle. "A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world's greatest civilizations has been 200 years. These nations have progressed through this sequence: From bondage to spiritual faith; From spiritual faith to great courage; From courage to liberty; From liberty to abundance; From abundance to selfishness; From selfishness to apathy; From apathy to dependence; From dependence back into bondage." Alexander Fraser Tytler I don't think much of that is correct. It just wraps up a nice little package for people to digest and believe. |
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Posted: 12/5/2020 9:26:09 AM EDT
[#22]
Fuck! I just bumped up my 401k. That’s a lot of extra ammo per paycheck going to something that might not exist.
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Posted: 12/5/2020 9:32:01 AM EDT
[#23]
Franklin (I think) also said something along the lines of that it takes a virtuous people to maintain a Republic......Virtue has done up and left the building some time ago.
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Posted: 12/5/2020 9:34:35 AM EDT
[#24]
The future is what you make it could be democracy, dictatorship, or something new. Many are always trying to change the future to what they want. Others are going by vague ideas of cycles of time tables. What ever the pattern, one Gengis Khan type and it's all out the window.
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Posted: 12/5/2020 9:36:36 AM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Franklin (I think) also said something along the lines of that it takes a virtuous people to maintain a Republic......Virtue has done up and left the building some time ago. |
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Posted: 12/5/2020 9:45:38 AM EDT
[#26]
About 5000 years ago a guy in the Iraqi sands wrote a story about countries wearing wood shoes on the way up and silk slippers on the way down.
Near the same time a Chinese guy wrote about wealth only lasting a few generations. About 200 years ago a bunch of white cis male shit lords wrote a bunch of stuff about governance. There are maxims about humans that seem to be timeless. On the flip side artificial intelligence, nukes, and a few other things really can flip all that shit on its head in a hurry. |
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Posted: 12/5/2020 9:50:54 AM EDT
[#27]
I've heard this years ago, but only concerning democracies.
Your post is the first I've seen "Republics" lumped onto it. |
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Posted: 12/5/2020 10:00:27 AM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted: We are 1 step further up on that actually. Concur. |
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Posted: 12/5/2020 10:53:38 AM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Modern republics are rather recent and nobody knows their limits, or whether they're hothouse flowers that only thrive under special conditions. Sir John Glubb ("Glubb Pasha"), a British officer who served with Arabs in WW2 and after, wrote a book where he hypothesizes that large empires lasted an average of 250 years (he separated Rome into republic and empire phases.) It was called "The Fate of Empires and the Search for Survival." It's out of print but you can find digital copies. Every Republic was a modern Republic at the time of its peak. We have technology, but it might serve only to make the coming slavery permanent. |
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Posted: 12/5/2020 11:00:16 AM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Every Republic was a modern Republic at the time of its peak. We have technology, but it might serve only to make the coming slavery permanent. Republic was a pretty rare form of government in the past. Now most of the world is composed of republics of some sort, although there are obviously vast differences between them. |
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Posted: 12/5/2020 11:02:16 AM EDT
[#31]
This "Republic" is on it's deathbed. ??????
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Posted: 12/5/2020 11:07:36 AM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I’m betting there are many here hoping for another $1,200 stimulus check. Sad. This right here. I didn’t want it. I don’t want another check, and I barely got anything anyway. I wouldn’t want it if it was $3009 either. |
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Posted: 12/5/2020 11:45:28 AM EDT
[#33]
Republicanism and democracy are aberrations. Monarchy is the only form of government ordained by God.
Jesus is the King of Kings, not chairman of the Politburo. Fact. |
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Posted: 12/5/2020 11:46:06 AM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I wonder if the prior republics that failed or "disappeared" did so due to rampant fraud? They were all ruled by man and being so probably all fall due to the same lack of virtues that people in control of populations always succumb to. |
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Posted: 12/5/2020 11:50:54 AM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Another thing people don't realize is that throughout history people having the freedoms and liberties like we have in the US, and take for granted, is an extremely rare occurrence, that the majority of mans existence on this planet has been lived under the rule, control, and enslavement by others. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Seems pretty common in history. People don't realize that the US is the 3rd oldest country in the world after San Marino and Sweden. Every other country has changed their form of government since we were founded, usually violently. Seems to be human nature. Another thing people don't realize is that throughout history people having the freedoms and liberties like we have in the US, and take for granted, is an extremely rare occurrence, that the majority of mans existence on this planet has been lived under the rule, control, and enslavement by others. Tytler contends that the people in Republics feel like they are more free than other peoples under different regimes and monarchs but they aren't. Those elected wield the same power as monarchs and nearly without exception become corrupt and enrich themselves, all funded with the people's money. |
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Posted: 12/5/2020 1:21:35 PM EDT
[#36]
Quoted: There has always been a lot of repeated things, without many cites, that Republics/Democracies have a lifespan of 200-250 years. Many supposedly end in a similar fashion, through similar means. Supposedly Rome was only a Republic for around 300 years then changed into basically a dictatorship. Athens only had a form of Republic for a couple of hundred years. At this time America has been a "Republic" for around 240 years. I would guess that every form of government has a life span. Actual monarchies lasts x amount of time and died out. Communism lasts x amount of years and destroys it self. It seems that all forms of government eventually destroy themselves. Is it true that Republics/Democracies last around 200-250 years? Is that where America is at, the end of a Republics lifespan? Will it end similarly to the others? Being morphed into some other form of repressive government until full destruction? No, that's just a convenient rewriting of history. The reality of Greek and Roman politics is not really anything like modern democracies, nor can it be quite so neatly packaged. There were periods of dysfunction, sometimes there was an emperor, sometimes it was a republic with a figurehead state. You'll find that the constants are the human factors. Every generation tends to venerate the generation one or two before it out of nostalgia and damn the generation that follows. The children now love luxury; they have bad manners, contempt for authority; they show disrespect for elders and love chatter in place of exercise. Children are now tyrants, not the servants of their households. They no longer rise when elders enter the room. They contradict their parents, chatter before company, gobble up dainties at the table, cross their legs, and tyrannize their teachers Attributed to Socrates, by Plato. You'll find similar prose written about every 20 years insisting that the youth are lazy and entitle, everything was better back when we were young, and the end of the republic is nigh. There is never a shortage of people promising that the end is upon us and clutching their pearls about every little thing, or trying to invent a cycle. The cycles thing is a type of conclusion shopping, you start by defining the current period as what it is, go look for a historical narrative that fits what you want to predict, and then just massage dates and events until you've created a cycle that fits what you need. Reddit is about half a shithole, but one of the better (read: strictly moderated, by people who know what they're talking about) places is r/askhistorians. There's a wiki with popular questions that have been answered, with documentation by a historian who knows the subject matter. https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/wiki/antiquity#wiki_the_roman_empire The "fall of the roman empire" question explains what I'm talking about. Except... this isn't what happened, and much of this narrative is informed by stereotypes about barbarians that were popular both with the Romans and with 19th-20th century historians in the west. Indeed, the above has now been thoroughly discredited. However, you'll still find it in popular histories, documentaries, and school textbooks, so many people outside the specialisation may still be thinking of the fall in this way. So if all that isn't true, what did actually happen? Well, that's still very hard to answer. History doesn't really tend to produce neat, all-encompassing narratives that explain everything and that nobody disagrees with. There are a number of differing schools of thought. One of which contends that the Roman Empire never really fell at all. |
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Posted: 12/5/2020 5:20:13 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I've heard this years ago, but only concerning democracies. Your post is the first I've seen "Republics" lumped onto it. At this point normal people view them as the same. Rome is used as an example and was a republic. Athens was used and was a democracy. |
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