]Defying Biden, Israel’s Netanyahu Doubles Down on Plans to Fight in Rafah

TEL AVIV—Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his government is preparing plans to evacuate hundreds of thousands of Palestinians from the southern Gaza city of Rafah so that Israeli forces can expand their campaign against Hamas there, despite warnings by the U.S. and United Nations of the potential cost in civilian lives and suffering.

The Biden administration has signaled increasing discomfort with Israeli talk of entering a city where more than one million Palestinians have taken refuge. President Biden last week called Israel’s offensive “over the top.”

That hasn’t stopped Netanyahu. In a move that puts his government at odds with the U.S., the Israeli leader is doubling down on military plans to enter Rafah. Analysts say Netanyahu is seeking to extend the war in Gaza as polls show waning domestic support for him but strong support for pursuing Hamas.

Netanyahu is taking his message directly to Americans, in an interview scheduled to air on ABC News later on Sunday. In a released preview, he declared that “victory is within reach” and that “we’re going to get the remaining Hamas terrorist battalions in Rafah, which is the last bastion.” Netanyahu said that not entering Rafah would be akin to losing the war against Hamas and allowing the group, which the U.S. has designated a terrorist organization, to survive.

Israel’s stated goal is to destroy Hamas and prevent it from posing further threats to the country’s security. Netanyahu’s government has also said that military pressure on Hamas is needed to compel the group to release more than 130 hostages still in Gaza. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Sunday that deepening the pursuit of Hamas in Gaza brings Israel closer to a “realistic deal in order to return the hostages.”

Israel’s proposed push on Rafah threatens to deepen a rift with the Biden administration, which faces growing pressure to temper its support for the war during an election year. Some Biden aides fear the president’s support for Israel could hurt his standing among younger voters as he seeks another term.

Netanyahu appeared to try to bridge that gap with the administration by saying Israel is focused on protecting civilians. “This I agree with the Americans. We’re going to do it while providing safe passage for the civilian population so they can leave,” said Netanyahu.

The U.N. has warned that an Israeli offensive in Rafah would “exponentially increase what is already a humanitarian nightmare.” The city has so far been mostly spared from the heavy firefights seen in the southern Gaza city of Khan Younis and Gaza City in the north.

On where Palestinians would be able to go after Rafah, Netanyahu said Israel is working out a detailed plan, while mentioning “plenty of areas” north of the city that he said Israel had cleared. “We’re not cavalier about this,” he said.

Israel’s plan to push into Rafah also threatens to strain relations with neighboring Egypt, where officials are worried about a flood of Palestinians fleeing Gaza and entering the Sinai Peninsula. Egyptian officials have repeatedly pressed their Israeli counterparts to limit the scale of any possible operation in Rafah, warning that Cairo has the option of suspending its 1979 peace treaty with Israel. In a move to mitigate the risks, Egypt has reinforced its border fences and added cameras, watchtowers and sensors. It has also moved tanks and infantry fighting vehicles into the border area.

Upsetting Egypt would also not bode well for ongoing negotiations between Israel and Hamas on a cease-fire plan that could free hostages still held in Gaza. Egypt, a leading mediator in those talks, has warned Hamas that it must reach an agreement with Israel within about two weeks or Israel will proceed with a ground invasion of Rafah.

About 28,000 people, mainly women and children, have been killed in Gaza since the start of the Israel-Hamas war, according to Palestinian authorities. The number doesn’t distinguish between civilians and militants. Israel began its air, ground and sea campaign in Gaza after Hamas militants conducted a cross-border attack on Oct. 7 that killed about 1,200 people, mostly civilians, according to Israeli authorities.

Celebrating Hamas, targeting Jews: In Turkey, the Gaza war is triggering a dangerous mood

ISTANBUL – Toward the end of 2023, Turkey was rocked by a diplomatic scandal.

The son of Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud managed to flee Turkey after killing a motorcyclist in a road accident. When Justice Minister Yilmaz Tunc was asked about Ankara's position, his response was – and I quote, not paraphrase – "The agenda is Palestine."

This is indicative. Ever since the dreadful Oct. 7 Hamas massacre of over 1,200 Israelis, mostly civilians, the position of Ankara and some Turkish citizens has been Gaza first, even to the detriment of their own priorities.

A few examples to illustrate the point. Toward the end of October, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan ordered three days of national mourning for the Palestinians killed in Israel's bombardment of the Hamas-run Gaza Strip. Two months later, 12 Turkish soldiers were killed in an ongoing, underreported conflict between Turkey and Kurdish forces in Syria and Iraq. However, no days of national mourning were announced for the fallen Turkish citizens.

The United States, Canada, Britain, European Union, Australia, New Zealand and Japan have designated Hamas a terrorist group. However, Erdogan publicly insisted that despite October's ghoulish Hamas atrocities that included rape and systematic massacre, Hamas are actually noble freedom fighters. In recent years, Ankara has allowed some of the terrorist group's top echelons to conspire from Istanbul and, according to some reports, Hamas leaders watched the massacre in southern Israel take place while in Turkey, raising eyebrows in Western capitals.

The week after the Oct. 7 attack, Erdogan personally spoke on the phone with Hamas' sponsors in Tehran to have a strategic discussion with hard-line Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. Two weeks later, demonstrators in Turkey marched outside of Turkey's NATO bases and even tried to storm one that houses U.S. forces. This despite NATO membership being the cornerstone of Turkish military power.

Sagiv Jehezkel, an Israeli soccer player for top-flight Turkish club Antalyaspor, earned his team a much-needed point by scoring the equalizing goal against rival Trabzonspor last month. Celebrating, he showed a tiny inscription written on a band around his wrist paying tribute to the Israeli hostages languishing in Gaza. In response, the club terminated his contract. This despite him being the team's second highest scorer this season. The international reputation of the Turkish league has also suffered in the process – especially after the player was detained by authorities and then summarily deported to Israel.

Back in October, the U.S.-based Starbucks corporation had a dispute with the coffee chain's workers' union about their social media posts on the Israel-Hamas war. Since then, cappuccino drinkers and iced-latte guzzlers at non-unionized Starbucks chains in Turkey have been pelted with rocks or greeted by protests. One gunman even fired on a branch in southern Turkey. Yet in Turkey, the Starbucks chain is owned by a Qatari state corporation as well as Turkish subcontractors.

Similarly, McDonald's was branded a Zionist-supporting entity because the home of the Big Mac has branches in the Little Satan. One Turkish protester went as far as to unleash a squadron of mice onto a branch last November. But in Turkey, Mickey Dee's is owned by the Vienna-based Boheme Investment, which itself is owned by a Qatari national. Without Qatari investment, Turkey's international strategic position would be vulnerable and its economy would shake.

It is the same story at Burger King, which has faced a number of attacks despite being part of the portfolio of Turkish-owned TAB Gida, which runs a number of Turkish-based fast-food chained outlets.

In an incident not unlike a scene from Chris Morris' cult British comedy "Four Lions," an armed Turkish assailant stormed into a Procter & Gamble factory near Istanbul earlier this month, taking seven workers hostage. All the captives were Muslim and Turkish. Luckily, they escaped unharmed when the man was captured by the authorities while reportedly taking a toilet break. How the perpetrator thought that taking captive Turks would help the hungry and displaced in Gaza is anyone's guess. Regardless, Procter & Gamble has not considered closing its center in Tel Aviv. If anything, the consumer goods giant must now invest in greater security precautions in Turkey.

Turkey's local Jewish population has been targeted too. There have been signs on shops barring entry to Jews; leading newspapers alleging a global Jewish conspiracy; articles purporting Jewish blood libels; and one group of protesters considered it a good idea to protest nefarious Jewish plots and conspiracies outside a synagogue in Izmir that had already been defaced. In Istanbul, a group of doctors came dressed with bloodied handprints on their white scrubs to demonstrate outside a Jewish community-owned hospital, even though the facility's patients are overwhelmingly Muslim.

There are many reasons for Turkey's tailspin over Gaza. Some Turks are angry at the intensity of Israel's bombardment and the large civilian death toll. Turkey's far left has for decades seen Israel and Zionism as an imperialist project. However, as noted by Brookings Institution Visiting Fellow Asli Aydintasbas, much of the present rage is also a directly result of Erdogan's influence. The president, who has been at the helm of Turkish politics for over 20 years, has long held antisemitic views, plus aspirations for Turkey to occupy center stage regionally. He believes, in the words of Aydintasbas, "in the legitimacy of Hamas as a viable Palestinian actor, which is a natural outcome of his ideological affinity for the Muslim Brotherhood" Sunni Islamist organization.

Regardless, the situation in Turkey is dangerous. Last month, Islamic State gunmen burst into a Catholic church in Istanbul during mass and opened fire, killing one man and causing worshippers to duck for cover behind pews. As luck would have it (believers might call it a miracle), the terrorists' automatic weapons jammed, preventing them from murdering more people.

According to informed reports, the Islamic State has ordered that Jewish and Christian sites in Turkey be targeted. The last thing Turkey needs is a repeat of the dark days between 2013 and 2017, when multi-casualty terror attacks by ISIS and the Kurdistan Workers' Party were the norm. Meanwhile, continued talk of Hamas as freedom fighters is bound to anger Turkey's traditional allies in the West.

Qatar's close ties with Hamas and Iran are just about tolerated because of its utility. However, the West doesn't need two Qatars or for Turkey, a country that is institutionally bound with the West through NATO, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, the Council of Europe and its ties to the EU, to use the language of jihad.

If calm heads don't prevail in Ankara soon, it is likely that Turkey will make international headlines for all the wrong reasons.

Underground Nightmare: Hamas Tunnels and the Wicked Problem Facing the IDF - Modern War Institute
Underground Nightmare: Hamas Tunnels and the Wicked Problem Facing the IDF
If Israel launches a ground campaign into Gaza to clear the dense areas of Hamas military capability—and all indications are that it intends to—Israeli forces can expect to face a wide range of challenges. Some of these are common features of modern urban warfare history, while others stem from the unique characteristics of Gaza’s urban terrain. But one challenge spans both categories: tunnels. Subterranean spaces have featured in other urban battles—not only recently but stretching back to ancient history. But the scale of the challenge in Gaza, where hundreds of miles of tunnels crisscross below ground in the enclave, is entirely unique. This expansive underground complex is the wicked problem—one for which no perfect solution exists—awaiting Israeli ground forces.

Tunnel warfare is not new. From medieval mining and countermining, its long history extends through the subterranean component of the World War I battles of the Somme, Vimy Ridge, and Messines to the deep natural and manmade tunnels used at Mariupol, Bakhmut, and Soledar during the ongoing war in Ukraine. The US military’s experience with tunnels includes the Civil War sieges of Vicksburg, Mississippi in 1863 and Petersburg, Virginia in 1864, the massive underground complexes of the Vietnam War, and both to al-Qaeda and ISIS tunnels in Afghanistan, Syria, and Iraq. In Vietnam, where North Vietnamese and Viet Cong forces used miles of tunnel networks to protect their supply routes, military forces, and bases in places like Cu Chi, the problem became so severe that it forced the development of new tactics such as sending soldiers, called tunnel rats, into tunnels armed with only a pistol and flashlight.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are very aware of the presence of Hamas tunnels in Gaza. They often refer to the group’s tunnel systems as the “metro.” The destruction of these tunnel complexes was one of the objectives of previous ground campaigns into Gaza, in 2008 and 2014. In total, there were believed to be over three hundred miles of tunnels in 2021, when Israel claimed to have destroyed sixty miles of tunnels during an eleven-day bombing campaign. Even if those tunnels have not been rebuilt or replaced, that means that it is likely that there remain hundreds of miles of intricate, complex, and deep tunnel infrastructure in Gaza. It is a veritable city underneath the cities on Gaza’s surface.

In the event of a ground campaign launched by Israel, Hamas would use its tunnels both defensively and offensively. The way it employed these spaces against the IDF during Israel’s 2014 Operation Protective Edge offers clues about what to expect in the days and weeks ahead.

Defensively, Hamas will use tunnels to escape IDF observation and attack. Any Hamas military capability that survives Israel’s current air campaign will mostly be deep underground. Hamas will have already placed its leadership, fighters, headquarters, communication, weapons, and supplies like water, food, ammunition in its tunnel complexes to prepare for the ground assault by Israeli forces. The tunnels will allow fighters to move between a series of fighting positions safely and freely under massive buildings, even after the IDF drop thousand-pound bombs on them. Hamas tunnels often have generator power, air ventilation, water pipes, and stockpiles of food that will allow the group’s fighters to better withstand the most basic challenges, like normal exhaustion, that result from urban siege and isolation. Hamas leaders and fighters will use the tunnels to remain mobile to escape entire sections of the combat area when they feel they are about to be decisively attacked or surrounded. Importantly, Hamas has also dug a large portion of its tunnels under, and connected to, civilian sites like school, hospitals, and mosques in dense urban areas. Among other reasons for doing so, this is part of its defensive lawfare strategy.

Offensively, Hamas tunnels allow the group’s forces to conduct protected and surprise attacks. They will use the tunnels to infiltrate behind IDF positions to surprise Israeli forces that might not be as well prepared or equipped for combat as those spearheading the campaign, like those in logistical areas. Interconnected tunnels under urban areas will allow Hamas to move quickly between prepared attack positions with caches of sniper rifles, antitank munitions, rifle-propelled grenades, and other weapons and ammunition. Tunnels will be the vital element of Hamas’s guerrilla warfare strategy. Its fighters will form small hunter-killer teams that move underground, pop up, strike, and pop quickly back into a tunnel. Hamas also uses the tunnels to hide and move rockets. These rockets can be remotely detonated or transported to hidden launch sites at the last minute. Hamas will also have many tunnels rigged with hundreds of pounds of explosive to function as tunnel bombs under main roads and buildings that the IDF might be lured into.

Entering tunnels presents unique tactical challenges, many of which cannot be addressed without specialized equipment. In some cases, it can be impossible to breathe without oxygen tanks in tunnels, depending on their depth and air ventilation. It can also be impossible simply to see. Most military night-vision goggles rely on some ambient light and cannot function when it is entirely absent. Any military navigation and communication equipment that relies on satellite or line-of-sight signals will not work underground. A weapon fired in compact spaces of tunnels, even a rifle, can produce a concussive effect that can physically harm the firer. A single defender can hold a narrow tunnel against a much superior force.

Of course, not all military tunnels and bunkers are the same. I have seen firsthand the wide variety, having been in North Korean invasion tunnels discovered in South Korea, Iraqi military bunkers, defensive bunkers and tunnels in Nagorno-Karabakh, and Hezbollah tunnels along the Israeli-Lebanese border. Two features typical of Hamas tunnels are important to note. First, Hamas tunnels are almost all very narrow, largely because of the prefabricated concrete sides and tops Hamas favors to build them. The average Hamas tunnel is just two meters high and a meter wide, making entering, moving through, fighting in them extremely hard. Second, because of Israel’s advancements tunnel detection and destruction, Hamas has dug its tunnels deeper and deeper. In 2020, Israel found a Hamas tunnel that descended 230 feet below the surface, the deepest found up to that point.

On the other side of the equation, there are a number of particular capabilities available to the IDF to deal with the challenge of Hamas tunnels. I have studied the phenomenon of subterranean warfare in conflicts around the world, have worked with leading scholars and experienced military practitioners to better understand its role in urban warfare, and am a founding member of first and only International Working Group on Subterranean Warfare. Of all the forces I have studied, the IDF has done the most work to prepare for dealing with tunnels in war.

The IDF has the capability to find, recover hostages from, clear, neutralize, and destroy tunnels. There are specialized units like the IDF Combat Engineering Corps’s Yahalom Unit, an elite commando unit whose soldiers specializes in finding, clearing, and destroying tunnels. The large force includes subordinate units like Sayfan, which trains to handle the threat of unconventional weapons, Samur, which specializes in entering, clearing, and destroying tunnels. The Yahalom is one of the largest units in the world that trains, mans, equips, experiments, and develops new ways to deal with underground warfare. The IDF’s canine unit, Oketz, has dogs trained for operating underground. And the IDF, police, and intelligence services all have special units—like Sayeret Matkal, the Yamam, and others—who share best practices for dealing with terrorists and combatants underground.

The Yahalom and other IDF units also have special equipment specifically developed for tunnels. Tunnel reconnaissance units, for example, use ground and aerial sensors, ground-penetrating radar, drilling equipment, and other systems to find tunnels. There are radios and navigation technologies that to work underground, night-vision goggles that use thermal and other technologies to see in complete darkness, and a suite of remote or wire-controlled flying or crawling robots that can look into and map tunnels without risking soldiers. The IDF also uses virtual reality training simulators that allow soldiers to train for underground warfare even when they aren’t at the physical training sites that include subterranean environments.

Israel has also developed special tactics for dealing with tunnels once they are found. It has a wide range of ground-penetrating munitions like the GBU-28, which can penetrate one hundred feet into the earth or through twenty feet of concrete. IDF ground forces also have multiple types of explosives to collapse or seal tunnels. They also have plenty of bulldozers they can use to seal tunnels—a tactic the US Marines employed when it sealed Japanese defenders in their caves and tunnels during the last part of the 1945 Battle of Iwo Jima. When multiple Hezbollah tunnels were discovered along Israel’s norther border during Operation Northern Shield in 2017, the IDF poured truckloads of wet cement into the tunnels to close them. Egypt is known for trying to neutralize Hamas cross-border smuggling tunnels along its border with Gaza by flooding them with seawater and sewage.

But the hard truth is that the depth and scale of Hamas tunnels in Gaza will surpass Israel’s specialized capabilities. It may come down to IDF infantry and engineers dealing with tunnels as they discover them.

It will also not be a simple matter of finding and destroying Hamas tunnels for several reasons. Gaza is not the mountainous and sparsely populated terrain of Afghanistan, for instance, where in 2017 the US military dropped America’s most powerful nonnuclear bomb—the 21,600-pound GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb—on an ISIS cave and tunnel complex. Moreover, Hamas will likely put weapons and explosives in tunnels that can trigger unintended explosions elsewhere or travel through to other parts of the tunnel network, causing damage where the IDF didn’t foresee. Finally, Hamas will likely put civilians and hostages in their tunnels as human shields. All of this means that Israel will have to take a deliberate approach to each of the tunnels they will discover.

There is no uniform solution to the problem that tunnels will present Israeli ground force, undoubtedly one of the biggest they will face in Gaza. Dealing with each tunnel will require a situation-dependent mix of capabilities. But above all, given the scale and complexity of the underground infrastructure in Gaza, one thing is certain: overcoming the challenges posed by tunnels will require a lot of time.

John Spencer is chair of urban warfare studies at the Modern War Institute, codirector of MWI’s Urban Warfare Project, and host of the Urban Warfare Project Podcast. He is also a founding member of the International Working Group on Subterranean Warfare. He served twenty-five years as an infantry soldier, which included two combat tours in Iraq. He is the author of the book Connected Soldiers: Life, Leadership, and Social Connection in Modern War and coauthor of Understanding Urban Warfare.

The views expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the United States Military Academy, Department of the Army, or Department of Defense.

Gaza’s Underground: Hamas’s Entire Politico-Military Strategy Rests on Its Tunnels - Modern War Institute
Gaza’s Underground: Hamas’s Entire Politico-Military Strategy Rests on Its Tunnels
The use of tunnels in wars is not new. Seeking advantages by using either natural or man-made spaces underground is as ancient as warfare itself—from stories of tunnels being used to win massive battles in the bible to underground spaces becoming key factors to urban battles, like Mariupol and Bakhmut, in the ongoing war in Ukraine. Modern nations including the United States, China, and North Korea invest billions in deep-buried military bunkers and tunnel complexes. But what Israel has faced in Gaza represents a unique first in war—namely, a case in which tunnels form one of two pillars, along with time, of a combatant’s political-military strategy.

Before the Israel-Hamas war, both the presence of Hamas tunnel networks and their growth over the years were very well known. The network was referred to as Gaza’s “Metro” or “lower Gaza.” The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and scholars estimated before the war that there were three hundred miles of tunnels ranging from fifteen feet to over two hundred feet below the surface. The estimates were wrong.

After three months of close combat and discovering over 1,500 tunnel shafts and underground passages, the IDF has learned enough to require the estimates to be revised. Israeli forces have unearthed massive invasion tunnels two and a half miles long, underground manufacturing plants, luxury tunnels with painted walls, tile floors, ceiling fans, and air conditioning, and a complex, layered, labyrinth underneath all areas of Gaza. The new estimates say the network may include between 350 and 450 miles of tunnels, with close to 5,700 separate shafts descending into hell.

New estimates also indicate the construction of this subterranean network could have cost Hamas as much as a billion dollars. The group has poured resources over fifteen years not just into constructing tunnel passages, but for blast doors, workshops, sleeping quarters, toilets, kitchens, and all the ventilation, electricity, and phone lines to support what amount to underground cities. As much as 6,000 tons of concrete and 1,800 tons of metals have been used in this subterranean construction.

The sheer size of Hamas’s underground networks may, once fully discovered, be beyond anything a modern military has ever faced. One of the last conflicts that involved a large amount of tunnel complexes was the Vietnam War. American forces and others faced some tunnel complexes that ranged up to forty miles in length and one of the most concentrated places of tunnels, near Saigon at Cu Chi, contained 130 miles of passageways.

There are larger military tunnel complexes in the world. China is believed to have three thousand miles of tunnels and bunkers capable of withstanding nuclear attacks in a network that has been called the “Underground Great Wall.” Some estimates show North Korea has over five thousand tunnels and infrastructure that includes multiple underground air bases with runways, radar sites, and submarine ports inside mountains.

But more importantly than the scale of the tunnels in Gaza, the Israel-Hamas war is the first war in which a combatant has made its vast underground network a defining centerpiece of its overall political-military strategy.

In the past, and even in most cases today, military tunnels and bunkers have been built specifically to gain a military advantage. They are used for smuggling, kidnapping, and invading or defending territory. Underground spaces enable militaries to conserve capabilities by avoiding detection and strike, to hold terrain by using the tunnels for mobile defense tactics, or even offensively to use guerrilla tactics to attrit the attacking force.

For the first time in the history of tunnel warfare, however, Hamas has built a tunnel network to gain not just a military advantage, but a political advantage, as well. Its underground world serves all of the military functions described above, but also an entirely different one. Hamas weaved its vast tunnel networks into the society on the surface. Destroying the tunnels is virtually impossible without adversely impacting the population living in Gaza. Consequently, they put the modern laws of war at the center of the conflict’s conduct. These laws restrict the use of military force and methods or tactics that a military can use against protected populations and sites such as hospitals, churches, schools, and United Nations facilities.

Almost all of Hamas’s tunnels are built into civilian and protected sites in densely populated urban areas. Much of the infrastructure providing access to the tunnels is in protected sites. This complicates discriminating between military targets and civilian locations—if not rendering it entirely impossible—because Hamas does not have military sites separate from civilian sites.

Hamas’s strategy is also not to hold terrain or defeat an attacking force. Its strategy is about time. It is about creating time for international pressure on Israel to stop its military operation to mount.

Hamas is globally known for using human shields, which is the practice of using civilians to restrict the attacker in a military operation. The group wants as many civilians as possible to be harmed by Israeli military action—as one of its officials put it, “We are proud to sacrifice martyrs.” It wants the world’s attention on the question of whether the IDF campaign is violating the laws of war in attacking Hamas tunnels that are tightly connected to civilian and protected sites. It wants to buy as much time as is needed to cause the international community to stop Israel. Its entire strategy is built on tunnels.

The tactical challenges Hamas tunnels present to Israel are thereby compounded by strategic challenges. To deal with tunnels at the tactical level, Israel has demonstrated some of the world’s most advanced units, methods, and capabilities to find, exploit, and destroy tunnels. From specialized engineer capabilities and canine units to the use of robots, flooding to clear tunnels, and both aerial-delivered and ground-emplaced explosives, to include liquid explosives, to destroy them. Arguably, no military in the world is as well prepared for subterranean tactical challenges as the IDF. But the strategic challenge is entirely different. To destroy many of the deep-buried tunnels, the IDF has required bunker-busting bombs, which Israel is criticized for using. And most importantly it has required time to find and destroy the tunnels in a conflict in which Hamas’s strategy is aimed at limiting the time available to Israel to conduct its campaign.

Hamas’s strategy, then, is founded on tunnels and time. This war, more so than any other, is about the underground and not the surface. It is time based rather than terrain or enemy based. Hamas is in the tunnels. Its leaders and weapons are in the tunnels. The Israeli hostages are in the tunnels. And Hamas’s strategy is founded on its conviction that, for Israel, the critical resource of time will run out in the tunnels.

John Spencer is chair of urban warfare studies at the Modern War Institute, codirector of MWI’s Urban Warfare Project, and host of the Urban Warfare Project Podcast. He is also a founding member of the International Working Group on Subterranean Warfare. He served twenty-five years as an infantry soldier, which included two combat tours in Iraq. He is the author of the book Connected Soldiers: Life, Leadership, and Social Connection in Modern War and coauthor of Understanding Urban Warfare.

The views expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the United States Military Academy, Department of the Army, or Department of Defense.

Image credit: Israel Defense Forces (adapted by MWI)

The Palestinian resistance group Hamas published a 16-page report on Sunday highlighting the motives behind its Oct. 7 cross-border attack on Israel and its connection to the Palestinian cause while also countering Israeli allegations.

The report, titled "Our Narrative…Operation Al-Aqsa Flood” and aimed at refuting Israel's claims, said Operation Al-Aqsa Flood was a necessary step and a natural reaction against Israel's plans to eliminate the Palestinian cause, seize lands, Judaize the Palestinian lands, and establish complete control over Al-Aqsa Mosque and holy sites.

It underscored that Operation Al-Aqsa Flood represented a strategic move to alleviate the blockade in the Gaza Strip, break free from Israeli occupation, restore national rights, attain independence, shape the Palestinian destiny and establish a Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital.

During the operation, "some faults" may have arisen in its implementation due to the swift breakdown of the Israeli security and military system, leading to chaos along the border areas with Gaza, it noted.

"As attested by many, the Hamas Movement dealt in a positive and kind manner with all civilians who have been held in Gaza, and sought from the earliest days of the aggression to release them, and that’s what happened during the week-long humanitarian truce where those civilians were released in exchange of releasing Palestinian women and children from Israeli jails," it said.

Addressing accusations of targeting Israeli civilians during Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, the report highlighted that avoiding the targeting of civilians, especially women, children and the elderly, was a moral and religious obligation for Hamas members.

Regarding allegations that the Al-Qassam Brigades, Hamas’ armed wing, targeted civilians on Oct. 7, the report said: “What the Israeli occupation promoted of allegations that the Al-Qassam Brigades on Oct. 7 were targeting Israeli civilians are nothing but complete lies and fabrications. The source of these allegations is the Israeli official narrative, and no independent source proved any of them."

"Video clips taken on that day – Oct. 7 – along with the testimonies by Israelis themselves that were released later showed that the Al-Qassam Brigades’ fighters didn’t target civilians, and many Israelis were killed by the Israeli army and police due to their confusion," it said.

"The Palestinian fighters only targeted the occupation soldiers and those who carried weapons against our people," it said.

The report called on the US and European countries to support the judicial process for investigating all crimes committed in Palestine if they truly believe in justice, despite their opposition to Israel being prosecuted at the International Court of Justice, it added.

Israel launched a deadly offensive on the Gaza Strip following an Oct. 7 cross-border incursion by Hamas, killing at least 25,105 Palestinians and injuring 62,681. Nearly 1,200 Israelis are believed to have been killed in the Hamas attack.

The Israeli offensive has left 85% of Gaza’s population internally displaced amid acute shortages of food, clean water and medicine, while 60% of the enclave’s infrastructure has been damaged or destroyed, according to the UN.

The Israeli commandos reached the hide-out on foot, weaving in silence through the back streets of Hamas-controlled Rafah in the pre-dawn darkness. Their mission: Rescue two of the hostages captured on Oct. 7 during the Hamas-led raid on southern Israel that began the ongoing war in Gaza.

More than 250 people were captured that day, roughly half of whom were released in November. But in the early morning on Monday, a squad from the Israeli special forces freed two of those who had now been held hostage for more than four months: Fernando Marman, 60, and Louis Har, 70.

The rescue mission was described by the Israeli military, which also released videos from the operation, which the country’s military and civilian leadership — including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — followed in real time from a command center in central Israel.

In Gaza, the rescue team’s moves went undetected.

Down a suburban side road, the squad — drawn from both a police SWAT team and the Shin Bet, Israel’s equivalent of the F.B.I. — halted outside a two-story house, its walls partly obscured by a tree, drone footage later showed.

At around 1:50 a.m., some of the commandos fixed a small explosive to the front door and blasted it open, according an Israeli military spokesman, Maj. Nir Dinar. Footage showed the commandos — numbering roughly a dozen — hurrying inside in single file.

After rushing up the stairs to a second-floor apartment, the commandos located Mr. Marman and Mr. Har within seconds, Major Dinar said.

Evacuating them would prove harder and take longer.

Almost immediately, the rescue team began taking fire from inside and outside the building, starting a gun battle that lasted for several minutes, Major Dinar said. Within a few moments, the Israeli Air Force began striking the area around the house, as well as other parts of Rafah.

Israel’s goal with the strikes, Major Dinar said, was to hit Hamas military command centers, confuse the militants, sever contact between the hostages’ captors and their commanders, and provide cover for the escape.

The explosions across the city lit up the night sky, terrifying the roughly 1 million Gazans who had fled there to escape fighting further north. The blasts were so bright, one refugee said, that the sky seemed closer to day than night.

Health officials in Gaza said nearly 70 people were killed. Video verified by The New York Times showed a mosque ablaze following the strikes.

Three Hamas captors were killed as the Israeli rescue team fought its way out of the building, Major Dinar said. One SWAT officer was lightly injured.

Drone footage showed the group hurrying down the street and away from the building in single file. They soon met up with members of Israel’s 7th Brigade, who escorted the team and the freed hostages back toward the front line. A helicopter flown by Shayetet 13, an Israeli unit akin to the Navy SEALs, flew the hostages to safety in Israel.

After 128 days in captivity, they were free.

“Welcome back,” one commando said in footage filmed on the helicopter. “How are you guys? How are you feeling?”

“Shocked,” one of the hostages is heard replying. “Shocked, all right.”

Inside Israel’s Daring Hostage Rescue in Gaza: ‘Diamonds Are in Our Hands’

Israeli officials said two hostages were freed during an overnight raid in Rafah, in Gaza. The rescue comes as Israel’s military prepares for a larger operation against Hamas in the southern border town.

TEL AVIV—Palestinians in the city of Rafah, on the Gaza Strip’s border with Egypt, awoke Monday to the sound of explosions. It was 1:50 a.m., but it looked like daytime outside.

“I never witnessed such a violent night since the war began,” said Hanan Abdulkarim, who said her window was flashing white when she and her 6-year-old son woke up. “I was 100% sure we were going to die at that moment.”

Minutes earlier, an elite Israeli team of counterterrorism police and intelligence agents had used explosives to break through a blast door and rush into the second floor of a residential building in the city. They exchanged fire with militants, killing at least three of them.

They quickly surrounded two men—70-year-old Luis Har and 61-year-old Fernando Simon Marman—and attempted to shield them with their bodies. Both men were dual Israeli-Argentinian citizens and had been taken from Kibbutz Nir Yitzhak on Oct. 7. They were thin and weak after 129 days in captivity.

As the rescue at the residential building unfolded, airstrikes rained down on operation centers of Hamas, to prevent the group from having a real-time picture of the raid, according to Israeli military spokesman Daniel Hagari.

More than a million Palestinians have crowded into the city of Rafah, seeking refuge from Israel’s offensive against Hamas to the north. But the war has been closing in on them.

On Sunday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed on American television that the Israeli military would enter Rafah, which he called the last bastion of Hamas. Israel is proposing setting up sprawling tent-cities as part of an evacuation plan for those sheltering in the city.

The rescue of two hostages brought a glimmer of hope for Israeli families with loved ones still held captive in Gaza and offered a moment of optimism for the nation. For Palestinians in Gaza, however, the operation was another reminder of how exposed they are to Israeli military operations.

“I truly believed it was our end,” said Hanan Harbi, a doctor’s secretary who had sought refuge in Rafah with her five children.

Nearly 70 Palestinians were killed in the operation, mostly in airstrikes, according to health authorities in Gaza. The figures don’t distinguish between militants and civilians.

As the rescue operation unfolded, many Palestinians in the city said they thought the invasion had begun. They weren’t the only ones.

Around 2 a.m., phone alerts went off at the military headquarters in Cairo, Egyptian officials said. Panic ensued among defense officials. They thought Israel had started the offensive, which risked pushing a wave of Palestinians into Egypt, without telling them.

In Israel, Netanyahu had gathered with top officials—including Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Ronen Bar, the director of the country’s security agency Shin Bet. They watched live footage of the rescue from a Shin Bet special operations room in an undisclosed location.

Netanyahu later said he had watched the SWAT team place the explosive charge. Seconds later, he said the team reached their target. A voice could be heard over the radio: “The diamonds are in our hands.”

It was code for the two men.

The two men—Fernando and Luis—had been taken on Oct. 7, along with Fernando’s sisters Clara Marman and Gabriela Leimberg, as well as Gabriela’s 17-year-old daughter, Mia. Luis is Clara’s partner.

Clara, Gabriela and Mia were released in late November as part of a one-week cease-fire deal between Hamas and Israel.

All five of them were kept in one residential house, Clara told The Wall Street Journal in an interview last month. Luis, who has four children and 10 grandchildren, didn’t have his hearing aid or the medication he needed for high blood pressure and diabetes.

They kept track of time by listening to the Muslim call to prayer five times a day. Each prayer had a different tune. Mia and Clara would count the days.

To pass time, the adults in the family told Mia stories about their life on the kibbutz, including how Clara and Luis met when he was working at the kibbutz factory. Sometimes they heard buzzing outside from what they thought were Israeli drones trying to collect intelligence. When it was possible, they would try to speak louder, in the hope their voices would be detected by the drones.

When the family had to split up as the three women were released in November, their captors gave them only a bit of time to say goodbye. Clara’s eyes welled up in tears as she recalled her separation from Fernando and Luis. “They tried to play it cool but I could tell they were devastated,” she said.

A daring rescue
Before rescuing Fernando and Luis, Israeli forces prepared for a month, the head of the police SWAT team said. The operation was a collaboration between various Israeli forces, including an elite group of police officers, Shin Bet and the Shayetet 13—Israel’s equivalent of U.S. Navy SEALs.

“We waited for the right timing and intelligence to move in,” Israeli military spokesperson Lt. Col. Richard Hecht said on Monday.

The decision to go ahead was made as negotiations to release hostages stalled, said David Tsur, a former commander of the police SWAT unit. “If the deal had progressed, I think they would have canceled the operation,” said Tsur.

The SWAT team likely spent weeks practicing how they would enter the home and deal with potential complications posed by being in a dense neighborhood, said Tsur. They would have planned the precise timing of each movement and task, he said.

“From the moment you explode the door, you’re already exposed,” said Tsur. “You have a few seconds to get to the terrorists and eliminate them. Then begins the evacuation operation.”

As they were evacuated from the building early Monday, the two men and their rescuers came under fire as they walked down a narrow road in Rafah, according to aerial video footage released by the Israeli military. “The forces have started to move along the route,” an Israeli officer can be heard saying to his colleague. A tank convoy can be seen moving along the road.

The Israeli military said that it carried out strikes for roughly one hour as the men were whisked out of Gaza. At nearby Kuwaiti Hospital, the wounded began flowing in.

Musa Masaad, a 21-year-old Palestinian who was staying with relatives in the neighborhood where the raid took place, started checking on his family members after being awakened by deafening blasts. He said he could see bodies outside on the ground.

A bit further away, Ameen Abu Taha, 34, was sleeping in a tent in a neighborhood of Rafah that the Israeli military had designated a safe zone. He held on to his daughter and brother’s four children, and urged them to go back to sleep. “I honestly thought we were going to die,” said Abu Taha.

As the city of Rafah reeled from the strikes, Fernando and Luis were almost out of harm’s way. As they were being taken in a vehicle to a helicopter, they were greeted by members of the Shayetet. “Welcome back. How are you guys? How are you feeling?” they asked the men.

“Shocked, shocked, all right,” said one of the men, according to a video released by the Israeli military. They were buckled in and asked whether they wanted a blanket and water. One of the officers offered the men shoes since they were still barefoot.

“We love you!” said someone in the crew.

Just after 3 a.m., Fernando and Luis landed at Sheba Medical Center, where they were greeted by family. There were long hugs and tears. Fernando held Gabriela tightly, while Luis embraced his daughter Natali Afgan. A medical staff member in green scrubs smiled on the side.

“I’m still speechless really,” said Maayan Sigal-Koren, Fernando’s niece. “We’re all still shocked here.”

“We waited for this. We dreamed about this for a very long time,” Gefen Sigal Ilan, Fernando’s niece, told Israeli radio on Monday.

—Abeer Ayyoub and Summer Said contributed to this article

Wave of SUVs theft raises concerns of another October 7 style attack from West Bank

There has been a wave of Suzuki Jimny thefts in Israel in the past few weeks. Many reappear in the West Bank, leading some to fear the thefts are an indication of plans for attacks

Dozens of Suzuki Jimny off-road vehicles have been reported stolen in Israel in the past few weeks, with evidence suggesting that they are taken to the West Bank. There has also been an increase in thefts of other off-road vehicles, particularly Jeep Wranglers.

Some in the insurance business are concerned that the trend is an indication of plans for attacks against Israelis, given Hamas' use of all-terrain vehicles during its October 7 attacks on Israel. The police have no information suggesting this is the case, however.

A Suzuki Jimny. Over the last five years, only 3,239 such vehicles have been sold in Israel, making the theft of dozens of them much more notable.

The Jimny is a small, reliable car, but until recently, car thieves had little interest in it because there was no demand for its spare parts. It is a very niche vehicle purchased mainly by people with an interest in off-road driving.

Over the last five years, only 3,239 such vehicles have been sold in Israel, making the theft of dozens of them much more notable.

Many Jimny owners belong to excursion clubs and to Facebook or WhatsApp groups. Recently, instead of advice on spare parts or excursion sites, these platforms have been busy talking about car theft.

Some of the stolen vehicles are documented in TikTok videos taken in parking garages in the West Bank. There are also online ads offering stolen Suzuki Jimnys for sale. A 2023 vehicle was on offer for 25,000 shekels ($6,800), for example, instead of the 145,000 shekels a similar vehicle would cost in Israel. The ad noted that it had not been purchased legally.

It seems that most of the stolen cars aren't dismantled for parts but rather sold in the West Bank. The Jimny's characteristics allow drivers to drive in difficult terrain and bypass roadblocks or traffic congestion.

Due to the increased number of Jimny thefts, insurance companies are now requiring drivers to install GPS tracking devices that cost hundreds of shekels a year. Insurance rates for the Jimny are also expected to rise. Many drivers have installed a durable lock on the steering wheel.

The police had not provided a response to a request for comment as of the publication of this article.

Here’s What to Know About Hezbollah’s Radwan Force
The elite unit of the Lebanese armed group lost a commander in a strike on Monday.

Jan. 8, 2024

Israel has long seen Hezbollah, with thousands of trained fighters and a deep arsenal of rockets and other weapons, as the most formidable foe on its borders. And Israeli officials say Hezbollah’s elite Radwan force, in particular, poses a major threat.

A strike on Monday in southern Lebanon, Hezbollah’s stronghold, killed a Radwan force commander, Wissam Hassan al-Tawil, the latest volley in the back-and-forth attacks across the border that have deepened fears the war between Israel and Hamas could broaden into a regional conflict.

Israel’s foreign minister appeared to say that Israel had been responsible for the strike that killed the Radwan force commander. Israeli officials have contended that the Radwan unit is focused on attacking northern Israel and is a legitimate target.

Why does Israel call the Radwan unit a threat?
Radwan has taken the lead in Hezbollah’s long-running conflict with Israel, and in the cross-border attacks that have escalated in the three months that Israel and Hamas have been at war. Israeli military analysts say that Radwan has adopted the mission of conquering the northern Israeli region of Galilee.

Hezbollah and Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip along Israel’s south, share a patron in Iran. If Iran and its proxies were to make a serious effort to broaden the war, the Israel-Lebanon border would be the likeliest place to do it. And since Hamas mounted its bloody Oct. 7 assault on Israel, there have been fears that Hezbollah could attempt something similar.

“The Radwan force is dedicated to duplicating what happened on Oct. 7 in the south of Israel in the north,” Tamir Hayman, a retired general who led Israeli military intelligence until 2021, said in an interview. “For that exact reason, it’s unacceptable for Israel to allow its fighters to remain in the border area.”

Last spring, the Radwan force took part in a rare example of public military exercises by Hezbollah, displaying an expansive military arsenal and simulating an infiltration into Israeli territory. Slick propaganda videos produced by Hezbollah have showcased the group’s small unit tactics and live-fire drills, interspersed with threats to Israel.

Why are we hearing more about the Radwan unit now?
The Oct. 7 attacks by Hamas also led to intensified strikes and retaliations between Hezbollah and Israel, forcing tens of thousands of people on each side of the border to evacuate.

In northern Israel, officials and residents have piled pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to protect them from Hezbollah and make it safe to return home.

“We need some kind of guarantee that there’s no danger to our citizens in the north,” General Hayman said.

What Israel had treated as a manageable threat it now describes as something more serious, and Israeli leaders have repeatedly cited the Radwan unit by name. In December, Tzachi Hanegbi, Israel’s national security adviser, told Israeli media that the country “can no longer accept Radwan force sitting on the border.”

On Sunday, Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, the chief spokesman for the Israeli military, said that a “focus” of its actions in Lebanon was driving the Radwan force away from the border.

Israeli leaders have increasingly declared in recent weeks that there are only two options for restoring calm in the conflict: a diplomatic solution that would move the Radwan forces farther from the border, north of the Litani River, or a major Israeli military offensive aimed at achieving the same goal.

So far, U.S.-led efforts to secure a diplomatic solution have proved unsuccessful.

Where did the Radwan force come from?
The origins and makeup of the unit are murky.

The group took its name from the nom de guerre of its former leader, Imad Mughniyeh, who was assassinated in Syria in 2008. Under his command, the unit played a pivotal role in the abduction of Israeli soldiers in 2006 that led to the outbreak of the Second Lebanon War.

The unit, along with other elements of Hezbollah and other Iran-backed groups, later took part in the battle against the Islamic State in Syria. But the fighting in the last three months has marked the Radwan force’s most active period against Israel since 2006.

WSJ News Exclusive | Pentagon Used Six-Bladed ‘Ginsu’ Weapon to Kill Iraqi Militia Leader

The Pentagon killed a Kataib Hezbollah leader in downtown Baghdad last week using a weapon that employs six long blades to shred its target and minimize civilian casualties, defense officials said.

The modified Hellfire missile, which inside the military is referred to colloquially as “the flying Ginsu,” recalling the popular knives sold on TV infomercials in the 1970s, was used to target Abu Baqr al-Saadi, the leader of Kataib Hezbollah in Syria. The U.S. use of the Ginsu in the Baghdad strike hasn’t been previously disclosed.

The strike on al-Saadi, who was traveling in a car, was part of a retaliatory response to the Iranian-backed group for their role in attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq, Syria and Jordan, where a Jan. 28 attack on a base killed three American soldiers, the officials said.  

The weapon, formally known as the R9X, is an inert Hellfire missile designed by the Pentagon and the CIA to kill terrorist leaders. It was employed, in part, because of concerns that killing innocent bystanders could inflame an already tense political situation in Iraq, which hosts roughly 2,500 American troops, the officials said.

Imagery of the strike on al-Saadi, showing the remnants of a burning but largely intact vehicle, was reminiscent of others involving the Ginsu. A weapon with an explosive warhead, like the traditional Hellfire missile, would have likely destroyed the vehicle.

U.S. military officials declined to comment on the use of the Ginsu.

The Ginsu, also sometimes referred to as the Ninja bomb, is designed to plunge more than 100 pounds of metal through the tops of cars and buildings to kill its target without harming individuals and property close by. Instead of exploding, it has telescoping knives that eject out of its nose at the moment of impact.

It is unclear how many times the Pentagon has used the weapon, but typically it is employed against high-profile individuals in areas where targeting them risks killing bystanders. Some U.S. defense officials say they believe al-Saadi may have been in a crowded part of the Iraqi capital because he thought he was safer among so many civilians.

The U.S. used the weapon in the targeted killing of al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in July 2022 and in a strike on Islamic State in Afghanistan in response to the group’s deadly attack in Kabul in August 2021 that killed 13 American troops near the city’s airport.

In January 2019, the Pentagon used it to kill Jamal al-Badawi, accused of helping to plan the bombing of the USS Cole in 2000 in a port in Yemen that killed 17 American sailors. And in February 2017, the CIA used the weapon to kill Ahmad Hasan Abu Khayr al-Masri, an Egyptian national who served as al Qaeda’s second in command, in Idlib province in Syria.

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani on Thursday said the strike could push Baghdad to terminate the mission of the U.S.-led military coalition in the country, according to his spokesperson. Iraqi officials have said the strike killed at least two other people; the Pentagon has said it believes only al-Saadi died.

Months of escalating clashes between the U.S. and Iranian-backed militias in the country have increased pressure—both from ordinary Iraqis and from political factions loyal to Iran—on the prime minister to fast-track an American exit. There have been at least 170 attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq, Syria and Jordan since shortly after the war between Hamas and Israel began on Oct. 7.

While minimizing civilian casualties is important, U.S. strikes increase the political pressure on the government in Baghdad, said Andrew Tabler, a former Middle East director at the White House’s National Security Council and now at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a think tank. “And that strengthens arguments within Iraq that the government should end its military relationship with the U.S.”

In addition to the U.S. troops stationed in Iraq, who are advising and assisting local forces to prevent a resurgence of Islamic State, there are at least 900 more based in Syria, according to the Pentagon. The withdrawal of forces in Iraq likely would affect the U.S. presence in Syria as well, defense officials have said.

Washington and Baghdad last month began formal talks aimed at winding down the coalition, but no timeline has been set for their completion. Even if the coalition ends, U.S. troops may stay as part of a new bilateral arrangement.

Biden-Netanyahu Relationship at Boiling Point as Rafah Invasion Looms
The looming Israeli military plans to invade Rafah have exacerbated tensions between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government and the Biden administration, which has grown increasingly frustrated with its attempts to rein in Israel’s military campaign.

The consequences of the distrust between President Biden and Netanyahu, who have spoken 18 times since Hamas’s Oct. 7 assault, have grown only starker in recent days. Biden now appears to be trying to draw a line with Israel’s proposed military operation on Rafah where 1.1 million Palestinians—many of them displaced—now reside.

Netanyahu, meanwhile, has vowed to forge ahead, saying Wednesday that Israel would mount a “powerful” operation in the city once residents are allowed to evacuate.

The U.S. has communicated that it wouldn’t—under any circumstances—support a plan for a full-scale invasion of Rafah, and that it would prefer to see targeted operations, U.S. officials said. The Biden administration has asked the Israeli military to produce a “credible plan” that included both a military and humanitarian component if it decides to disregard Washington’s advice and invade the city, U.S. officials said.

The growing clash between the two governments over Rafah underscores the Biden administration’s waning leverage over Netanyahu as his military continues to hammer Gaza, even as pressure grows inside the U.S. government to rein in Israel.

The State Department has launched a probe looking at several Israeli airstrikes in Gaza that killed dozens of civilians and the possible use by Israel of white phosphorus in Lebanon, to determine whether the Israeli military misused American bombs and missiles to kill civilians, U.S. officials told The Wall Street Journal.

Talk of a Rafah operation came as the U.S., together with Qatar, Egypt and Israel, continued to work on fragile plans for a sustained pause in fighting to secure the release of some of the remaining hostages in Hamas captivity while also ensuring that desperately needed humanitarian aid gets to the people of Gaza. Those efforts appeared to collapse Wednesday when Israel said it wouldn’t return to Cairo for further negotiations.

In recent weeks, U.S. officials have been exploring different ways to exert pressure on Netanyahu, but Biden has shown no willingness to use the biggest tool in his arsenal: weapons sales to Israel. The president has dismissed any talk of slowing arms sales to Israel, U.S. officials said, and instead has largely relied on the bully pulpit to try to express discontent.

U.S. officials have pushed the White House to take a more critical public approach to Israel’s war in Gaza, and Biden has in recent days expressed more concern about the way Netanyahu is leading the campaign, repeatedly calling Israel’s military campaign “over the top.” In a tense phone call Sunday over the potential for a full-scale Rafah invasion, Biden pushed Netanyahu to continue negotiations for a hostage release.

Sitting alongside Jordan’s King Abdullah II on Tuesday, Biden again emphasized the U.S.’s desire for a hostage deal, which would cease fighting for at least six weeks, as a path to a longer-term resolution. “The key elements of the deals are on the table,” Biden said. “There are gaps that remain, but I’ve encouraged Israeli leaders to keep working to achieve the deal.”

On Wednesday, Netanyahu’s office said the government wouldn’t send a delegation back to Cairo to continue negotiations.

Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, a Washington-based think tank, said the Biden administration’s public messaging so far is having very little impact on pushing Netanyahu to develop an exit strategy for Gaza or embracing the Biden administration’s goal of advancing talks to establish a Palestinian state alongside Israel.

“The gap between the Biden administration and the Netanyahu government on a range of key issues has widened in recent weeks as the war between Hamas and Israel continues,” Katulis said.

Tensions between Biden and Netanyahu had been rising for months. In mid-December, Biden angered Netanyahu and Israel’s government when he told attendees at a campaign fundraiser that Israel was starting to lose support around the world because of its “indiscriminate bombing” of Gaza.

At that same event, Biden recalled something he once said to Netanyahu, whom he has known for nearly 50 years: “I said, ‘Bibi, I love you, but I don’t agree with a damn thing you have to say.’ That remains to be the case.”

The relationship reached a boiling point later that month, according to U.S. and Israeli officials, when Biden abruptly ended their Christmas-week call following a tense exchange about civilian casualties and, in Washington’s view, the need for Israel to shift to a new phase in its war, focused on targeted operations. Biden, who was so angry that he was almost shouting in the Dec. 28 call, according to officials, declared the conversation “over” and hung up.

Some of Biden’s senior aides are becoming increasingly worried that his support for Israel’s war in Gaza risks damaging his re-election prospects amid cratering support from young voters. Last week, Biden dispatched a group of foreign policy and political advisers to Michigan on Thursday in an effort to quell growing outrage over deaths in Gaza ahead of Michigan’s Feb. 27 presidential primary. The appeal has taken on a new urgency after Biden’s previous attempts to assuage Muslim and Arab-American supporters have proven insufficient.

Over one million Palestinians—many of them displaced—reside in Rafah.Photo: Said Khatib/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
Israel’s bombardment in the enclave has left more than 28,000 people dead, mostly women and children, according to Palestinian health authorities. The figures don’t distinguish between civilians and combatants.

Netanyahu has significant considerations about his own political longevity with his war against Hamas. He is deeply unpopular in Israel, and some more left-leaning media outlets have said the prime minister bears responsibility for the Oct. 7 attack on Israel.

Last month, the U.S. administration was considering enacting a package meant to send a message of discontent to Israel.

The package, U.S. officials said, would have included a reversal of two Trump-era policies: one that allows products made in Jewish settlements in the Israel-occupied West Bank to be labeled as being “Made in Israel,” and another that upended longstanding U.S. policy that the West Bank settlements violate international law.

U.S. officials said they were also considering imposing sanctions on two influential members of Netanyahu’s right-wing government: Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir.

Taken together, U.S. officials said, the package could have sent a strong message of discontent. But, in the end, the Biden administration only enacted sanctions against four largely unknown Israeli settlers, once again tempering the Biden administration’s response.

“It remains to be seen what leverage the Biden administration might be willing to use to address this gap between Israel and the United States on the Gaza endgame and the revived two-state solution concept.” Katulis said. “It’s one thing to leak messages of discontent and disapproval—it’s another thing to make a policy shift that might matter and lead to a different debate or decision calculus inside of Israel.”

On Tuesday, State Department spokesman Matthew Miller defended the Biden administration’s strategy, saying that Biden’s and Blinken’s have had an impact on the way Israel has conducted its operations, even if not always to the full extent the U.S. wants. Miller said some people might have unrealistic expectations about how much influence the U.S. has over Israel.

“I think that sometimes people pretend that the United States of America has a magic wand that it can wave to make any situation in the world roll out in exactly the way that we would want it to,” he said, “and that is never the case.”

WSJ News Exclusive | Egypt Builds Walled Enclosure on Border as Israeli Offensive Looms
DUBAI—Egyptian authorities, fearful that an Israeli military push further into southern Gaza will set off a flood of refugees, are building an 8-square-mile walled enclosure in the Sinai Desert near the border, according to Egyptian officials and security analysts.

For weeks, Egypt has sought to bolster security along the frontier to keep Palestinians out, deploying soldiers and armored vehicles and reinforcing fences. The massive new compound is part of contingency plans if large numbers of Gazans do manage to get in.

More than 100,000 people could be accommodated in the camp, Egyptian officials said. It is surrounded by concrete walls and far from any Egyptian settlements. Large numbers of tents, as yet unassembled, have been delivered to the site, these people said.

With Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying his army will need to fight Hamas in Rafah, a Palestinian city on the Egyptian border, Egyptian officials think a broad Israeli offensive could happen within weeks.

In the event of a major exodus of Palestinians from Gaza, Egypt would seek to limit the number of refugees to well below the capacity of the area—ideally to around 50,000 to 60,000—Egyptian officials said.

Egypt has long sought to avoid a flood of refugees from spilling over its borders, even threatening to abandon its decades-old peace treaty with Israel if that occurs as a result of its offensive against Hamas. The fact that Egypt is now urgently proceeding with contingency plans signals that Egyptian officials see a rising danger of such a scenario.

The governor of Egypt’s North Sinai region on Thursday denied initial reports of the construction of a potential refugee camp for Palestinians, saying the activity in the area was part of an effort to take an inventory of houses destroyed during Egypt’s past military campaign against Islamic State extremists in the area.

Israel pulled out of the negotiations over a potential cease-fire deal on Wednesday, heightening fears that the country will move forward with its Rafah offensive. On Thursday, CIA Director William Burns met with Netanyahu and Mossad Director David Barnea to continue talks, according to people familiar with the matter.

President Biden, U.N. officials and Palestinian leaders have also sought to avoid a mass displacement of Palestinians from Gaza, fearing that many wouldn’t be able to return. Israel has said those who leave their homes in Gaza will be allowed to come back. The concern over displacement is especially sensitive for Palestinians because of the exodus from their homes during the war at the creation of Israel in 1948.

“You cannot imagine the terror and fear in the hearts of civilians here in Rafah,” said Fatima Majdi Hamouda, a woman from Beit Lahiya in the northern Gaza Strip who like thousands of others fled to the south in the early days of the war following an Israeli evacuation notice.

“Some people are already on the Egyptian border, and if the bombing intensifies, they will go directly to Sinai. It’s the worst of decisions,” said Hamouda, who is 32 and sheltering with her family in a tent on the edge of Rafah near the Mediterranean.

If Israel does proceed with the offensive on Rafah, the military would seek to move the civilian population northward—out of the battle zone but within the Gaza Strip—a senior Israeli military official said. Israel has also assured the U.S. that it would create a safe corridor to the north, according to a former U.S. official. Israel hasn’t publicly outlined any plan for what it would do with the civilians in the area.

Palestinians who enter the enclosed area wouldn’t be allowed to leave unless they are departing for another country, Egyptian officials said, outlining contingency plans discussed within the government.

If Egypt were to begin accepting a large number of Palestinian refugees, it would tighten entry and exit restrictions on a larger area of the northern Sinai, including the regional capital of Al-Arish, Egyptian officials said.

Sinai Foundation for Human Rights, a nonprofit organization monitoring events in the region, published a report this week documenting the construction of the concrete enclosure, including photos of what it said were concrete walls more than 7 yards high.

The report cited witnesses on the ground and included a map of the rough area of the enclosure. Egyptian officials confirmed to The Wall Street Journal that the area identified by the foundation was the general location of the planned enclosure.

Though many Palestinians living in the enclave are desperate to leave for their own safety, many also oppose any mass migration to Egypt, fearing that they wouldn’t be allowed to return home. Egyptian officials have taken a hard line against Palestinian refugees but some privately concede that an exodus on some level may now be inevitable.

The fortified camp being set up by Egypt could ultimately be used in different ways, said regional officials and analysts. In one scenario, it could serve as a safety net if Palestinians rush the border. In another, Egypt could agree to accept a limited number of Palestinian refugees in return for financial or other incentives, they said.

“It’s a multipronged effort from Egypt to counter any scenario that is not according to its accepted conditions,” said Mohannad Sabry, an Egyptian security analyst and author of a book on Sinai.

The enclosure could serve as a backstop to prevent refugees from flooding over the border unabated. “Even if the Israelis push a million and a half people to spill over the border, Egypt can throw the ball back into Israel’s lap by simply limiting the movement of Palestinians further in,” he said.

Israeli military officials say that they must expand the military operation into Rafah to pursue Hamas leaders and militants who have fled there. Palestinian officials and relief groups have warned that large-scale fighting in the area could result in a humanitarian catastrophe because of the huge civilian population, which includes many thousands of people crammed into tent cities, schools and abandoned buildings in the area.

Within Gaza, 1.7 million people have fled their homes during the war, according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. Israel has issued evacuation notices urging civilians to leave roughly two-thirds of the strip, according to the U.N. Israel says the evacuations are necessary to protect civilians and give the military a freer hand to fight Hamas.

Israel has been pressuring Egypt to accept a military operation in Rafah, arguing that Israeli forces have to cut off Gaza’s border with Egypt to block Hamas’s ability to smuggle weapons. Egypt has urged Israel not to carry out such an operation, saying that it has already clamped down on underground smuggling tunnels in the area.  

Israel Was Behind Attacks on Major Gas Pipelines in Iran, Officials Say
The sabotage, which analysts said marked an escalation in the shadow war between Israel and Iran, caused massive disruption in several provinces.

Israel carried out covert attacks on two major gas pipelines inside Iran this week, disrupting the flow of heat and cooking gas to provinces with millions of people, according to two Western officials and a military strategist affiliated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps.

The strikes represent a notable shift in the shadow war that Israel and Iran have been waging by air, land, sea and cyberattack for years.

Israel has long targeted military and nuclear sites inside Iran — and assassinated Iranian nuclear scientists and commanders — both inside and outside of the country. Israel has also waged cyberattacks to disable servers belonging to the oil ministry, causing turmoil at gas stations nationwide.

But blowing up part of the country’s energy infrastructure, relied on by industries, factories and millions of civilians, marked an escalation in the covert war and appeared to open a new frontier, officials and analysts said.

“The enemy’s plan was to completely disrupt the flow of gas in winter to several main cities and provinces in our country,” Iran’s oil minister, Javad Owji, told Iranian media on Friday.

Mr. Owji, who had previously referred to the blasts as “sabotage and terrorist attacks,” stopped short of publicly blaming Israel or any other culprit. But he said that the goal of the attack was to damage Iran’s energy infrastructure and stir domestic discontent.

The office of Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declined to comment.

The Western officials and the Iranian military strategist said the gas pipeline attacks by Israel required deep knowledge of Iran’s infrastructure and careful coordination, especially since two pipelines were hit in multiple locations at the same time.

One Western official called it a major symbolic strike that was fairly easy for Iran to repair and caused relatively little harm to civilians. But, the official said, it sent a stark warning of the damage that Israel could inflict, as conflict spreads across the Middle East and tensions rise between Iran and its adversaries, notably Israel and the United States.

The Western officials said Israel also caused a separate blast on Thursday inside a chemical factory on the outskirts of Tehran that rattled a neighborhood and sent plumes of smoke and fire into the air. But local officials said the factory explosion, which took place on Thursday, stemmed from an accident in the factory’s fuel tank.

Iran has said that it does not want a direct war with the United States, and it has denied being involved in either the Oct. 7 terrorist attacks against Israel or the various attacks against American and Israeli targets in the region since then.

But Iran supports and arms a network of proxy militia that have been actively fighting with Israel and United States, including the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon and militants in Iraq and Syria. Iran has also armed and trained Hamas and other Palestinian fighters.

The strikes and counter-strikes across the region have escalated in recent months. Israel has killed two senior Iranian commanders in Syria, while the United States has struck military bases connected to the Revolutionary Guards and its proxies in Iraq and Syria after three American soldiers were killed in a drone attack.

Iran also suffered one of the largest terrorist attacks in its history in January, when suicide bombers killed about 100 people in Kerman during a ceremony for a top general, Qassim Suleimani, killed by the United States four years ago. ISIS claimed responsibility for the suicide attack.

Now, the Western officials say, Israel has attacked inside Iran’s borders with back-to-back explosions that have unnerved Iranians.

“This shows that the covert networks operating in Iran have expanded their target list and advanced beyond just military and nuclear sites,” said Shahin Modarres, a Rome-based security analyst focused on the Middle East. “It’s a major challenge and reputation blow for Iran’s intelligence and security agencies.”

The sabotage targeted several points along two main gas pipelines in the provinces of Fars and Chahar Mahal Bakhtiari on Wednesday. But the disruption in service stretched to residential homes, government buildings and major factories in at least five provinces across Iran, according to Iranian officials and local media reports.

The pipelines carry gas from the south to major cities like Tehran and Isfahan. One of the pipelines runs all the way to Astara, a city near Iran’s northern border with Azerbaijan.

Energy experts estimated that the attacks on the pipelines, which each run for about 1,200 kilometers or 800 miles and carry 2 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day, knocked out about 15 percent of Iran’s natural daily gas production, making them particularly sweeping assaults on the country’s critical infrastructure.

“The level of impact was very high because these are two significant pipelines going south to north,” said Homayoun Falakshahi, a senior energy analyst at Kpler. “We have never seen anything like this in scale and scope.”

On Friday, Mr. Owji, the oil minister, said that technical teams from the ministry had worked around the clock to repair the damage, and that the disruption had been minimal and service restored.

But his assessment was at odds with the comments of local governors and officials from Iran’s national gas company, who had described widespread outages of service in five provinces, forcing the closure of government buildings. On social media, Iranian energy experts advised people in the affected areas, where in some places temperatures dropped below freezing, to dress warmly.

The blasts happened at around 1 a.m. local time, terrifying residents, who fled their homes and poured into the streets, according to Iranian media reports. On social media, people described blasts so loud that they woke up thinking a bomb had been dropped. No casualties were reported.

Saeid Aghli, an official with the national gas company, told Iranian media that officials immediately called an emergency meeting attended by the oil minister, officials from the foreign ministry and representatives from all of Iran’s intelligence and security services. Mr. Aghli said the sabotage was intended to take out about 40 percent of the country’s gas transmission capacity.

How the pipelines were struck — with drones, explosives attached to pipes or some other means — remains unclear. Iran’s energy infrastructure has been targeted in the past, but those incidents were much smaller in scope and scale, analysts said.

The military strategist affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards Corps — who, like the other officials, was not authorized to speak publicly — said the Iranian government believed Israel was behind the attack because of the complexity and scope of the operation. The attack, he said, almost certainly required the help of collaborators inside Iran to figure out where and how to strike.

He noted that major pipelines in Iran, which carry gas across vast distances that include mountains, deserts and rural fields, are patrolled by guards in outposts along the length of the pipes. The guards check their areas every few hours, he said, so the attackers may have had knowledge of their breaks, when the area would remain unmanned.

Mr. Falakshahi, the energy analyst, said the blasts exposed the vulnerability of the country’s critical infrastructure to attacks and sabotage. He said that Iran, the third largest producer of natural gas in the world, has about 40,000 kilometers of natural gas pipelines, mostly underground. He added that the pipelines are primarily for domestic consumption and that, because of sanctions, Iran’s export of gas was minimal and limited to Turkey and Iraq.

“It’s very difficult to protect this very extensive network of pipelines unless you invest billions in new technology,” Mr. Falakshahi said. He added that repairing the damaged pipelines would require shutting off the gas and then replacing the pipes, which could take days.