Israel currently under attack (Page 1032 of 1034)
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Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
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Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
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Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian: The memorandum that was signed is the result of the collective wisdom of Shura Council's members, and all members are in sympathy with it. I believe this memorandum will be the center of gravity of our foreign relations in the future. We must strive to compel the enemy to remain committed to what it has signed. The security of the country, the region, and our allies will be enhanced by this memorandum. |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Reuters Red Sea and Hormuz shipping update Two tankers laden with Saudi oil crossed the Bab el-Mandeb strait over the weekend, while traffic in the Strait of Hormuz slowed following reports of vessel attacks, shipping data showed on Monday. The number of commodity vessels that passed through the Bab el-Mandeb strait fell to 18 on Sunday, from 27 on Saturday and 28 on Friday, the Kpler data showed. The Iran-aligned Houthis declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia on July 20, opening a new front against the U.S. and its allies in the Iran war and expanding attacks on tankers carrying global energy and other supplies to waters beyond the Gulf. Suezmax tanker Lesvos and Very Large Crude Carrier Desh Vaibhav exited the Red Sea with their Automatic Identification Systems (AIS) transponders switched off, the data showed. The Malta-flagged Lesvos was carrying about 1 million barrels of Saudi crude and it was not immediately clear where it was headed to. The Desh Vaibhav, carrying 2 million barrels, is heading to India's Sikka port where Reliance Industries (RELI.NS) typically receives crude. Dynacom, the manager for the Lesvos, and the Shipping Corp of India did not respond to requests seeking comments. Separately, a Panama-flagged tanker carrying Russian naphtha has changed course to sail around Africa instead of going through the Red Sea. STRAIT OF HORMUZ At the Strait of Hormuz, a route for a fifth of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas before the hostilities, one tanker carrying liquefied petroleum gas loaded in Iran made the crossing on Sunday, Kpler data showed. Some vessels may have switched off their AIS and cannot immediately be accounted for. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency has reported three more tanker attacks since Saturday. Greek shipping firm Gaslog reported an incident on its LNG tanker Gaslog Shanghai on July 31. The number of commodity vessels passing through Hormuz fell to 10 on Saturday after Friday's tally of 19, the highest since mid-July, the data showed. In addition to the VLCCs Spain B and Noble, two more VLCCs exited the Hormuz strait while one entered on Friday. These include the VLCC Kiku, carrying about 1.4 million barrels of Qatari crude, and the VLCC Rotterdam Energy with 2 million barrels of Das crude from the United Arab Emirates aboard. ADNOC Logistics & Services, the owner of Rotterdam Energy, declined to comment. Apex Shipping, manager of the Kiku, did not respond to a request for comment. Reporting by Florence Tan; additional reporting by Emily Chow and Mohi Narayan; Editing by Clarence Fernandez and Sonali Paul |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
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Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
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Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Iran would have full control over ships entering through the Strait of Hormuz under a temporary shipping plan being discussed with Oman, while Muscat would clear outbound vessels after notifying Tehran, a senior Iranian source told Reuters on Tuesday. "The temporary Hormuz plan under discussion with Oman gives Tehran full control over inbound shipping," the source said. Under the plan, the outbound shipping lane would follow a route between Iran and Oman, the source said. "For the outbound Hormuz route, Oman will clear ships for exit after notifying Iran," the source added. The arrangement would give the two countries different roles in managing traffic through the key waterway, with Iran controlling inbound shipping and Oman handling clearance for ships leaving the strait after notifying Tehran.
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Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Al-Mayadeen, a channel close to the Iranian axis, reports that Iraqi forces detected Syrian military reinforcements crossing toward al-Bukamal, the main arms smuggling route under the Assad regime. The units were identified as the Syrian army's 72nd Brigade. Iraqi forces have monitored the border for several days, including with drones.
According to Yemeni media, the Indian cargo ship FAIZE NOORE OLIYA reportedly sank after being attacked by an explosive boat 13 nautical miles south of Hodeidah in the Red Sea. According to the report, Yemen’s internationally recognized government says all 14 crew members were rescued, including 13 Indian nationals and 1 Yemeni. (No UKMTO report as of yet) Link to report below.
Israel has ordered its forces in Gaza to scale back operations after last night's targeted strike. Troops may now act only against immediate threats, and any further targeted killings require approval from the IDF Chief of Staff. The Board of Peace has been told Israel is halting targeted assassinations, a source told the Post. |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Axios Report: U.S., Iran and Oman nearing interim Hormuz agreement. Key points: • The U.S. hopes to announce the deal on Wednesday. • The agreement would restore the U.S. Iran ceasefire and restart nuclear talks. • The proposed arrangement would last 60 days, with an option to extend. • Inbound shipping would transit through Iranian waters. • Outbound shipping would use Omani waters, coordinated with Iran. • No transit fees would be charged during the temporary arrangement. • Naval mines would be cleared from the central shipping lane within 30 days. • The central lane would later handle two way traffic under a permanent Oman Iran agreement.
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Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
10:55 AM Eastern
HEZBOLLAH ATTACK ON IDF: WHAT WE KNOW SO FAR Preliminary reporting: At least 12 wounded (some reporting of a fallen IDF soldier) after an explosive device detonated on IDF soldiers in the southern Lebanese village of Majdal Zoun. Israel says the bomb, described as a booby trapped structure, was planted by Hezbollah. In response, the IDF issued an evacuation warning for al Mansouri before carrying out multiple airstrikes on other Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon. The attack happened as U.S. mediated talks between Israel and Lebanon are underway in Rome on a longer term arrangement for southern Lebanon. Evacuation is for here UKMTO confirmation of earlier reports Attached File
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Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
6:30 PM Eastern
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Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
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ISRAEL STRIKES HEZBOLLAH POSITIONS IN SOUTHERN LEBANON Israeli forces shelled Hezbollah positions near Kfar Shouba in southern Lebanon, sparking fires in the area, according to Lebanese media. Footage also showed an Israeli Merkava tank firing toward the outskirts of Al-Haniyah.
Sharp criticism within Israel's security establishment regarding the conduct of the Lebanese Army in the pilot areas it has entered: “The Lebanese Army is doing almost nothing to clear the areas it has entered. They are doing a superficial job, just going through the motions. This has not gone unnoticed by the Americans." |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
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Former President Hassan Rouhani admits that elements within the Islamic Republic want a wider, more destructive war to hasten the Mahdi's appearance. Rouhani said some within the regime believe war must be escalated to hasten the Mahdi's appearance—a reflection of an apocalyptic strain of Mahdist ideology that views chaos and war as prerequisites for the Mahdi's return. He also recalled a 2004 meeting with Ali Khamenei, who told him that an individual had proposed building a massive platform in Tehran for the Mahdi to deliver a speech upon his return, complete with a sound system powerful enough for the entire city to hear him. The remarks provide a rare public acknowledgment that apocalyptic beliefs have influenced thinking within parts of the Islamic Republic's establishment. |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
BREAKING: Iran's IRGC, Yemen's Houthis, and Iraqi militias are expected to imminently launch massive coordinated attacks against Saudi Arabia from the north, south and east, a senior Saudi official tells Reuters. Targets include civilian, energy and oil facilities, economic sites, critical infrastructure, airports, and ports. Saudi Arabia has also observed drones and missiles being moved right now, suggesting coordinated operations from all three directions.
The military says it struck a series of Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon in the past day, in response to the bomb that killed two troops and wounded four others in Majdal Zoun yesterday. The sites included weapon depots, command centers, and other Hezbollah infrastructure, according to the IDF.
Iranian media is claiming that the IRGC struck two targets in the Hormuz. I’m assuming these targets are two ships. We will know soon what happened (hit/ warning shots) The 2 possible vessels are NISSOS KEA and NISSOS KEROS, both Marshall Islands flagged VLCC crude oil tankers operated by Greece’s Okeanis Eco Tankers. Both switched off their AIS transponders before approaching the Strait of Hormuz. |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Full Reuters article Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan will sign a joint defence agreement in Mecca on Friday, sources with knowledge of the matter said, amid regional turmoil with Gulf states coming under fire from Iran after it was attacked by the U.S. and Israel. While the pact further cements a burgeoning grouping of major Sunni Muslim powers allied with the United States, there was no immediate clarity on each state's commitments or how it might affect the wider crisis in the Middle East. Two regional sources with direct knowledge of the matter said the deal would be signed on Friday, which was later confirmed by a Turkish official. Another regional source said it was not clear whether the agreement would also be publicly announced on Friday. The three nations share growing concerns over Middle East chaos and the role of revolutionary Shi'ite Iran and an increasingly assertive Israel, as the United States struggles to contain regional threats. Turkey has NATO's second-largest military. Saudi Arabia, the strongest Gulf state, is home to Islam's holiest sites and one of the world's top oil exporters, while Pakistan is the only nuclear-armed Muslim country. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, accompanied by powerful army chief Asim Munir, arrived in Jeddah on Thursday and performed the Umrah pilgrimage in Mecca. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan departed for Jeddah on Friday. They will meet Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, whose country has been repeatedly struck by Iran, as well as by Tehran's Houthi allies in Yemen and Shi'ite militia in Iraq, since the war began on February 28. The conflict has also exposed Gulf states' security vulnerabilities and disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas transited prior to the war. Their pact follows nearly a year of negotiations, reported by Reuters in January, when Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Ankara favoured a broader regional security platform to promote cooperation and stability. An existing Saudi-Pakistani pact treats an attack on either as an attack on both and encompasses "all military means", a Saudi official previously told Reuters. In practice, Pakistan has sought to avoid becoming militarily entangled in the Iran war, instead opting to try to mediate with Iran. The Pakistani military and government did not immediately respond to requests for comment, though the foreign ministry confirmed the visit to Saudi Arabia and described it as "consolidating" ties with the kingdom. Army chief Munir shapes Pakistan's foreign and security policy. Saudi Arabia's government did not immediately respond to a request for comment. PACT BUILDS ON LONGSTANDING MILITARY TIES The Middle East has been in flames for nearly three years since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, with nearly every country in the region experiencing cross-border attacks or missile or drone fire. While Turkey and Pakistan, on the borders of the Middle East, have avoided significant direct attacks, both are anxious to calm conflicts that threaten their own security and economic health. For Saudi Arabia, the consequences of three years of Middle East conflicts have been more severe - bringing it under direct fire from three directions, imperiling its oil exports and ambitious development plans and drawing big questions over the reliability of its longstanding U.S. security umbrella. Sealing Friday's agreement in Mecca, the holiest site in Islam, will add symbolic heft to a pact that builds on longstanding bilateral military ties among the three countries. Pakistan has provided training and technical assistance to Saudi forces for decades, while Turkey and Pakistan have exchanged warships and training aircraft. In 2023, Riyadh agreed to buy Turkish drones in what Ankara called its largest defence export contract. Pakistan has since deployed about 8,000 troops, fighter jets, drones and an air-defence system to the kingdom, Reuters reported in May, and has pursued wider Gulf security ties. It has opened negotiations with Kuwait over an expanded pact in exchange for energy cooperation and investment, Reuters reported in July. By Ariba Shahid, Timour Azhari, Daren Butler and Maha El-Dahan; Writing by Angus McDowall; Editing by Sharon Singleton |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
The U.S. naval blockade halted Iranian crude exports, leaving Iran's primary export hub at Kharg Island completely idle since July 31. Satellite data confirms all loading bays are empty, though Iran continues collecting revenue from previously dispatched Asian shipments while quietly cutting domestic production to avoid storage overflow - FT
A Hezbollah explosive-laden drone struck near Israeli forces in southern Lebanon earlier today, an incident which the IDF chose not to publish to the public The attack in the Ali Taher Ridge area caused no injuries or damage. The incident was first published this evening by Ynet news. In response, the IDF publishes an unusual statement saying that it "publishes information to the public based on professional considerations and situational assessments." "The IDF spokesperson will not publish information that, according to the situational assessment, could endanger our forces operating in the combat zones," the military adds.
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Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
This is the 4th ADNOC ship attacked this week.
Reuters article from 8/7 on ADNOC Abu Dhabi National Oil Company said on Friday it was being significantly impacted by what it described as unprovoked attacks on its people and assets, as it sought to continue meeting customer requirements in an "exceptionally challenging environment." ADNOC said in a statement that 15 of its vessels had been attacked by missiles and drones while transiting the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the conflict, including three this week, leaving one crew member dead and 20 injured. The Strait of Hormuz, between Iran and Oman, is the world's most important oil shipping chokepoint, carrying roughly a fifth of global oil consumption. Shipping through the waterway has been repeatedly disrupted since the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran expanded into a wider regional conflict, with attacks on commercial vessels raising freight rates and security concerns. ADNOC, the Abu Dhabi state oil company, is one of the world's largest energy producers and exports crude oil, natural gas and refined products to customers worldwide. ADNOC said it was working closely with relevant authorities and taking all necessary measures to protect its people, assets and operations, while meeting customer requirements as much as possible. "Freedom of navigation and the safe, uninterrupted passage of commercial shipping through international waterways must be respected and protected without threat, harassment or attack," ADNOC said. Reporting by Maha El Dahan, Enas Alashray and Ahmed Tolba; Editing by Louise Heavens
Complete WSJ article Iran is vowing to bar U.S. Navy warships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz as part of an agreement to reopen the waterway, pressing its goal of curtailing America’s decades-old military presence in the Persian Gulf. Tehran’s threat highlights the ascendance within the Iranian leadership of hard-liners in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who have long sought the ouster of American forces from the region. Though Iran has taken a devastating military beating, its leaders now see an opportunity to use negotiations on ending the six-month war to dislodge the U.S. as the dominant power in the Persian Gulf. Iranian officials have publicly made the threat amid negotiations with Oman, the sultanate on the strait’s southern coast leading discussions with Tehran. U.S. officials have told mediators they won’t accept Iranian restrictions or tolls on Hormuz traffic, one of several sharp conflicts between Washington and Tehran that have delayed completing an agreement. As a military matter, Iran is unlikely to be able to deny the U.S. Navy access to the Gulf if it decides to sail through the strait, analysts and former senior military commanders say. The Pentagon sent two Navy guided-missile destroyers through Hormuz in April at the height of the war. But by laying out maximalist demands, Iran may be testing President Trump’s appetite for resuming the war or for taking an off-ramp, even if it means not immediately contesting Iran’s bid to block the U.S. from the Gulf. No matter what Trump does, “the fundamental result is going to be significant Iranian de facto control over the strait,” said Jonathan Panikoff, a former senior U.S. intelligence officer now with the Atlantic Council, a Washington think tank. The Trump administration would only accept an arrangement in the Strait of Hormuz where Iran receives no tolls or fees and can’t deny anyone access to the waterway, a U.S. official said, adding that any specified shipping routes would be temporary. Another American official said the U.S. would lift its blockade on Iranian ports if Tehran opened the strait without impediments. “It’s sort of open right now” because of the U.S. blockade, Trump told reporters Thursday. He acknowledged that Iran “can always shoot something, always have something or drop a mine, and if you have one mine sitting out there, you sort of mess things up because people don’t want to take their billion-dollar boats and accidentally get hit by a mine.” The memorandum of understanding Trump signed with Iran in June also sought to open the Strait of Hormuz and clear the way for deeper talks and an eventual end to the war. But it fell apart amid Iranian attacks on ships aimed at asserting control over the strait. The draft Hormuz deal would temporarily set up an inbound lane near Iran and an outbound lane near Oman, though Iran’s top leaders still need to sign off, officials said. The agreement could help unstick energy flows through Hormuz and ease pressure on the global economy. But the Arab energy exporters of the Persian Gulf, while weary of a war that has hammered their economies, are concerned it will give Iran a permanent say over a waterway that is their financial lifeline. Iran’s diplomats, under pressure from the Revolutionary Guard, insist more steps would be needed for the strait to fully reopen, including oil-sanctions relief and lifting a U.S. blockade on Iran ports. Israeli ships would also be banned from transiting the strait, according to a report by the Revolutionary Guard-linked Fars News Agency, along with ships or cargo linked to actions against Iran’s regional militia allies. Countries that have caused damage to Iran would have to pay compensation before being allowed to transit. Iran’s government and military would manage navigation and traffic, Fars reported, saying those terms were included in draft legislation being reviewed by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. Ali Vaez, the Iran project director of the Crisis Group, a conflict-resolution organization, said the prohibition on warships is at the heart of Tehran’s demands. “Iran’s control is designed to provide tools to deny access to hostile vessels,” Vaez said. Mediators said the Iran-Oman agreement doesn’t include those provisions laid out by Fars. But they still took the Iranian demands seriously after Iranian officials communicated those demands to Arab mediators, leading to a setback in the talks, a sign of the Revolutionary Guard’s determination to end unfettered passage through the strait. Iranian oversight of Hormuz would complicate an array of economic and security investments in the Gulf. About a fifth of the world’s oil typically flows through the Strait of Hormuz, as do tens of billions of dollars a year in Qatari liquefied-natural gas. Dubai runs a lucrative shipping business through its port at Jebel Ali, near the strait. The permanent American naval presence in the Gulf stretches back to 1971, when the U.S. took over a British base in Bahrain and later made it the headquarters of the Navy’s Fifth Fleet. The U.S. military footprint in the Gulf expanded in recent decades, reaching 30,000 troops at bases in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. But Iranian attacks on those bases have forced the Pentagon to redeploy troops and to rely heavily on less-vulnerable installations outside the Gulf, a shift showing how the war has already forced changes in the U.S. posture. “They’ve already pushed us out of the Persian Gulf effectively in terms of usable military power,” said Rosemary Kelanic, director of the Middle East Program at Defense Priorities and a critic of the U.S. military presence in the Middle East. Early in the war, Iran declared a new era in which it would control the Strait of Hormuz. Its leaders see that as a guarantee of security akin to their nuclear program and missile arsenal. It set up a government agency called the Persian Gulf Strait Authority and has demanded shipowners register with it to cross and pay it for insurance. The U.S. has imposed sanctions on the agency, threatening penalties for any shipper that transacts with it. While the U.S. denies Iran has control of the strait, it has only occasionally risked sending warships into the Persian Gulf during the conflict, and then only for brief missions. Commercial shippers are reluctant to cross the chokepoint without assurances Iran won’t attack. Overall Hormuz traffic is crippled. Tehran’s hard-liners say they will enforce their demands. Mohsen Rezaei, a retired Revolutionary Guard commander and close adviser to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, said Thursday that Iran wouldn’t allow the opening of alternative routes through the strait. Chris Long, a former British Navy officer in the Persian Gulf now head of intelligence at shipping advisory Neptune P2P Group, said he expects energy flows through the waterway will be “slow and low for years.” Gulf officials acknowledge that the proposed agreement gives Tehran control over the strait and that control may be permanent, but say it is their best option at the moment. The Revolutionary Guard has shown it is willing to escalate and make the war as costly as possible for Washington’s regional allies. Gulf countries are already looking at plans to bypass Hormuz by expanding pipelines to the Red Sea and the Gulf of Oman as well as expanding investments in overseas oil storage. But regional officials say without a credible peace deal, bypasses won’t prevent the Revolutionary Guard from targeting their energy infrastructure. |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
After violating the MOU by firing on ships, #Iran's regime's foreign minister now says today the Strait of Hormuz's reopening would depend on "other conditions and compensation for the violation of the memorandum of understanding by the United States." The regime will not offer the quiet the Trump administration is hoping for before the midterm elections. It will continue to play games. Now they're not just demanding compensation from the war but compensation over the collapse of the MOU.
US Vice President JD Vance said Iran had told Washington it had no plans to impose tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, in an interview aired by Fox News Saturday. Vance said the United States expected oil and gas flows from the Persian Gulf to return to pre-conflict levels and would judge Tehran by its actions rather than its assurances. “Our expectation is you’re going to see the same amount of oil and gas come out of the Gulf that you saw before the conflict started. That is what the Iranians have told us that they are going to do,” Vance said. He said Iran and Persian Gulf states, particularly Oman, had been discussing how to ensure safe passage through the strait, including demining and a commitment from Tehran not to fire on commercial vessels. Vance said the United States was still “in the middle of the game” with Iran and was using diplomatic, economic and military tools to secure what he called the best outcome for the American people. “We don’t trust, we verify,” Vance said.
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Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
First test of the Saudi-Turkish-Pakistani defense alliance? Shiite channels report that the two Saudi Aramco facilities were indeed attacked. The Saudi Ministry of Energy announced early this morning that firefighting forces had managed to bring under control a fire at Aramco facilities in the Saudi city of Jizan, located on the Red Sea coast, near the border with Yemen and the Houthis.
Full article For weeks, President Trump had been laying the groundwork to declare victory in the Iran war should Tehran fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, even floating the idea privately to senior aides that he’s willing to walk away without a nuclear deal, U.S. officials said. But that scaled-back objective became more difficult when Iran insisted Saturday on its highest price yet for permitting the free flow of traffic in the waterway, seeking billions of dollars in U.S. payments, the removal of American troops from the region and an end of the U.S. naval blockade, among other things. This rapid chain of events suggests Trump’s options for walking away from the conflict have again narrowed. Trump has repeatedly threatened—and then backed away from—a massive escalation of its bombing campaign. But the recent chaos in negotiations signaled Tehran is prepared for a long and grinding conflict. “Iran’s recent hardline demands for reopening the strait make it increasingly difficult for the president to manufacture a face-saving off-ramp from the conflict,” said Mona Yacoubian, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank. Gregory Brew, an Iran expert at the Eurasia Group consulting firm, said, “The Iranians fully believe Trump wants out and is focused on opening the strait, which is why they are playing hardball.” Hanging over diplomatic talks since April has been the White House’s ultimatum that Iran will never obtain a nuclear weapon. Trump sought to include nuclear talks as part of broader negotiations with Iran, but those have proven too difficult, leading the White House in recent weeks to focus more on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s ability to essentially choke off the waterway through sporadic missile and drone attacks has proven to be powerful leverage for the country, stalling commercial traffic and roiling global oil markets. Trump has declared repeatedly in recent weeks that the Strait of Hormuz was already fully open, but each of those promises has proven premature. Now, with less than three months until the midterm elections and the price of gasoline still much higher than it was before the war started in late February, Trump has been looking for ways to tell the American public that the war is won. In recent days, Trump told reporters that he was prepared to launch the biggest military attack since World War II but was talked down by U.S. allies. He insisted that a deal was “imminent” although one hasn’t materialized yet. On Friday, the president on social media suggested victory was already in hand even without a nuclear agreement, linking to an article declaring “Donald Trump Won the Iran War.” Vice President JD Vance told Fox News that the U.S. would continue to pressure Iran to make long-term changes in its relationship with Washington. “And if not, that’s fine, too, we’re just going to keep on applying the pressure we can apply, and getting as much oil and gas out of the Middle East so that Americans can enjoy lower gas and energy prices.” “We’re in the middle of the game,” Vance said. Tehran, which closed the waterway once the war began in February, has insisted that no American warships be allowed to traverse the waterway and has pushed to collect revenue from commercial vessels. Washington has said it won’t accept Iranian restrictions or tolling, U.S. officials said. The prospects of a deal appeared to darken over the weekend when the United Arab Emirates said Iran launched a missile attack on one of its ships and a top Iranian official laid out a series of tough demands for allowing traffic through. Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said the U.S. would need to permanently end the war, lift its naval blockade, withdraw its forces, end all sanctions, free Iran’s frozen assets, pay war reparations, end threats and insults, and stop military action against Iran’s militia allies around the region before Iran would open the strait, according to a report on state news agency IRNA. U.S. officials said Trump is patient and expected to ride out the latest diplomatic snarl, especially so long as gas prices remain where they are. The average price of gasoline was $4.02 a gallon on Saturday, according to AAA. That is up from $3.16 a year ago but down a bit from a week ago. A White House official insisted that the U.S. completed all of its military objectives against Iran. Trump’s focus now is securing the flow of the world’s energy through the Strait of Hormuz and will keep military options on the table should Iran further target ships, the official said. On the nuclear concerns, Trump has told senior aides privately in recent weeks that Tehran is likely unable to revive its nuclear work during his presidency after the U.S. destroyed three primary nuclear sites last year, the officials added. U.S. intelligence capabilities would likely catch any Iranian attempts to rebuild those facilities or covertly build a bomb, the president has said in recent meetings, and he is confident the threat of more American attacks would serve as an enduring deterrent. If the U.S. can keep the nuclear program in check and traffic resumes in the strait, then Trump is more likely to extend the current ceasefire indefinitely, the officials said. Trump also is expected to lift the U.S. military blockade on Iranian ports if Tehran fully reopens the strait, they added. One major complication for the Trump administration is money. Iran is seeking billions of dollars in war reparations in addition to an agreement to unfreeze the country’s assets around the world. Trump has said the White House wouldn’t allow any taxpayer money to go to Iran, although a deal appears unlikely without the U.S. unfreezing some assets, possibly with conditions attached. There also is a dispute about whether the U.S. should issue waivers to let Iran sell oil on the open market. The U.S. had agreed to the waivers last June as part of an interim peace agreement with Iran. That ceasefire fell apart after Iran attacked ships in the strait, and the U.S. reinstated sanctions on the Iranian oil trade. Trump’s recent comments indicate he is looking for an exit. The U.S. blockade on Iranian ports meant the Strait of Hormuz was “sort of open right now,” Trump told reporters on Thursday, though the president acknowledged Tehran could still damage ships with missiles, drones and mines. He also has suggested Iran’s buried uranium stockpile was a nonissue. “We’ve already got the nuclear material, because it’s so far underground,” Trump said during July’s summit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. “Nobody’s going to be able to get it except us.”
Iran has made these demands for months, many of them featured in the MOU and America was fulfilling some of them (ending blockade, lifting oil sanctions) before Iran resumed attacks on ships In some ways this still looks like a sequencing problem, which was a central flaw in the MOU. Iran wants to front-load as many benefits as possible before it reopens Hormuz and diminishes its leverage But at some point it needs to decide what it is *actually* willing to accept
The IDF has officially canceled all military leaves. For context, the last time Israel took this step was February 26, just 48 hours prior to the strikes targeting the Supreme Leader’s compound. The pattern suggests high-level operations or major escalation could be underway.
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Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
President Trump signaled on Sunday that he's prepared to allow economic pressure on Iran to mount — as opposed to ordering a new military offensive — even as the country continues to defy the U.S. "We are only semi-negotiating with them. We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money."
Inside the War on Hezbollah’s Finances Israel and the United States aren’t just targeting the Lebanese militant group’s weapons. They’re going after its money. When Israel launched its latest war against Hezbollah in March, the first targets the military warned it would strike were not weapons depots or underground command centers. They were banks. Israeli fighter jets leveled more than a dozen branches of a shadowy financial institution known as Al-Qard al-Hassan, long accused of operating as Hezbollah’s bank in Lebanon. More airstrikes followed on exchange shops that Iran used to funnel money to Hezbollah, its Lebanese proxy, and on gas stations that generated revenue for the group. With these strikes, Israel was sending a clear message: Hezbollah’s money, not only its arsenal, was in the cross hairs. The bombings capped the most aggressive campaign yet by Israel, the Trump administration and Lebanon’s own government to squeeze Hezbollah financially by disrupting the group’s funding channels, particularly from Iran. For months leading up to the war, Lebanon’s government, under pressure from the Trump administration, worked to choke off the routes that the group used to receive and move money, such as Beirut’s international airport. Washington also pressed the Lebanese central bank to tighten controls over the country’s cash economy, which Hezbollah had long exploited. Now, Hezbollah is grappling with its most severe economic strain in years, according to documents reviewed by The New York Times and interviews with Lebanese, U.S. and Israeli officials and Hezbollah insiders. Most spoke on the condition of anonymity, citing confidential intelligence assessments, diplomatic protocol or fear of retribution. The war that began in March was the second in less than three years between Israel and Hezbollah, one of the world’s most heavily armed militias. In the previous conflict, which began in late 2023, Israel killed Hezbollah’s longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah, along with many other top figures in the movement. Seizing that moment, leaders in Washington and Israel sensed that Hezbollah was vulnerable and coordinated their efforts to clamp down on its funding. They went after the financial networks that had long underpinned the group’s power, while also turning up the pressure on Lebanon’s government to disarm Hezbollah. While the wars with Hamas in Gaza and Iran have drawn global attention, the financial squeeze on Hezbollah represents a quieter front in a campaign by Washington and Israel aimed at crippling Tehran’s ability to project power through its proxy militias across the Middle East. Founded in 1982, Hezbollah has long stood as the crown jewel of that network. The group’s finances are secretive, and the full extent to which the crackdown has affected its vast operations remains unclear. Both Hezbollah and its chief backer, Iran, have also proven resilient in the face of the efforts to weaken them, able to bounce back militarily and to find new ways to keep the money flowing. Nevertheless, Hezbollah is struggling to finance its sprawling social welfare network, which has long underpinned its support among its Shiite Muslim base in Lebanon. The group has also increasingly prioritized military spending after Israel’s offensives took a heavy toll on its capabilities. Hezbollah’s chief spokesman, Youssef al-Zein, told The New York Times in May that the group had halted the compensation payments it had pledged to supporters as it struggles to meet the needs of hundreds of thousands of people displaced by the war. The State Department estimated before the war that Iran’s funding to Hezbollah was about $700 million per year, providing a majority of the group’s billion-dollar annual budget. Iran has increased its financial support for Hezbollah over the past year, according to Lebanese, U.S. and Israeli officials, but the money is still not enough to cover Hezbollah’s considerable war-related expenses. “The scale of the battle’s demands and the displacement have placed significant burdens on Hezbollah,” Mr. al-Zein said. As a result, “resources are being managed according to priority,” he added. “There is undoubtedly pressure, but Hezbollah is able to overcome it.” U.S. Pushes Lebanon to Get Tough The crackdown on Hezbollah’s finances began in earnest in late 2024. Soon after a U.S.-mediated cease-fire halted the Israel-Hezbollah war, the sudden fall of the dictator Bashar al-Assad’s regime in neighboring Syria left the group more isolated than ever from Tehran. Hezbollah had lost a crucial smuggling route at precisely the moment it needed money to rebuild and sustain its operations. For decades, Hezbollah oversaw a state within a state in Lebanon — one that fed, housed and paid its loyal followers. It built a media network, established hospitals and schools, drew revenue from gas stations and pharmaceutical companies and amassed an arsenal more powerful than the state’s own military with Iran’s financial backing. But when the Syrian land route into Lebanon was effectively severed, Iran scrambled to find other methods to finance the group, according to U.S. and Israeli officials and people familiar with Hezbollah’s finances. Iran turned to Beirut’s airport, which for years had effectively operated under Hezbollah’s control and was used to receive Iranian funding and arms, according to a U.S. official and a senior Lebanese official briefed on the matter. But U.S. and Israeli officials were on that trail. Early last year, U.S. officials relayed an Israeli warning to Lebanon’s government. Iran was sending suitcases stuffed with U.S. dollars to Hezbollah on civilian flights to Beirut — in some cases carried by Iranian diplomats — according to two Lebanese officials and an Israeli official. U.S. officials declined to comment. The warning led Lebanon to suspend all flights from Iran, a measure that remains in place. Hezbollah-affiliated airport staff were also removed from their roles, and the Lebanese authorities installed security officers who work in coordination with American officials, according to a U.S. official and two Lebanese officials. When Ali Larijani, Iran’s national security chief, visited Lebanon last August, his meeting with Prime Minister, Nawaf Salam, showed just how much had changed inside the country. “Our message to the Iranians was very clear,” Mr. Salam said in an interview with The Times not long after the visit. “We cannot allow the Iranians to interfere in our domestic affairs,” he added. “This wasn’t music to their ears,” he said. Mr. Larijani was killed months later in the U.S.-Israel war with Iran. Lebanon Tightens Oversight of the Cash Economy Washington then turned its sights on Lebanon’s central bank, an opaque institution that had long operated with little scrutiny. Lebanon operates on a largely cash-based economy, which the U.S. Treasury Department says Hezbollah has exploited to launder illicit funds and funnel money from Iran. Last year, the Trump administration worked to influence the appointment of a new Lebanese central bank governor, according to a senior Lebanese official briefed on the process. U.S. administration officials did not respond to requests for comment on their role. The new governor, Karim Souaid, quickly proved himself willing to move against Hezbollah. He sidelined or fired top bank officials suspected of ties to the group, ordering his office swept for listening devices and refusing to use bank-issued computers amid fears of surveillance, according to a senior central bank official and an internal memo obtained by The Times. The central bank did not respond to a request for comment. With the new U.S.-backed governor in place, the central bank started an investigation into the country’s largest money service businesses and their suspected use by Hezbollah to move funds, according to internal documents seen by The Times and the senior central bank official. Since the investigation began, the Lebanese authorities have tightened oversight of money transfers. “Hezbollah was able to continuously generate substantial amounts of money through the abuse of those networks,” Brian E. Nelson, a former top Treasury official who oversaw sanctions on the group under the Biden administration, said in an interview. Hezbollah’s media office called the claims that it had exploited Lebanon’s cash-based economy “false and entirely baseless.” As large money service businesses came under greater scrutiny, Hezbollah continued to rely heavily on a less regulated network of exchange houses, which has rapidly become the primary channel through which Iran finances the group, according to a senior Israeli defense official and another person familiar with Hezbollah’s finances. The funds move from Iran through the United Arab Emirates, Turkey and Iraq using hawala, an informal system of broker-to-broker transfers without the underlying cash necessarily crossing borders, these two people said. When the U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on Lebanese money exchangers in last November, it said Iran had already funneled around $1 billion to Hezbollah that year, largely through the hawala method. Hassan Moukalled, an exchanger whom the Treasury Department imposed sanctions on and described as a “key Hezbollah financial adviser,” told The Times that the international pressure had made it harder to move money but that Hezbollah was adapting. “In a country like Lebanon, where there’s a large amount of cash, there are always possibilities,” he said. Hezbollah Feels the Pinch As the crackdown picked up speed, Hezbollah’s welfare system began to show signs of strain. Hezbollah officials and beneficiaries told The Times that while salaries are largely still being paid to its tens of thousands of fighters, some social services have been rolled back as the group triages its spending. Hezbollah has tried to drum up cash where it can. In February, weeks before the latest Israel-Hezbollah war began, the Treasury Department said that senior officials from Al-Qard al-Hassan, Hezbollah’s de facto bank, had established a chain of gold-trading companies to raise cash. Ledgers reviewed by The Times and assessments by analysts who track Hezbollah’s cash economy indicated that gold sales have climbed over the past year. One reason Hezbollah wanted to turn gold into cash was that Israeli airstrikes had destroyed much of Hezbollah’s foreign currency and gold reserves, according to Israeli and U.S. officials. Last year, Lebanon barred the country’s banks and brokerages from dealing with Al-Qard al-Hassan, further isolating Hezbollah from the formal financial system. Hundreds of thousands of Lebanese people, many of them Hezbollah supporters, rely on Al-Qard al-Hassan for interest-free loans and war-related compensation payments. The organization describes itself as a charitable lending association rather than a bank, and its director has said that Hezbollah maintains separate organizational finances. Still, the Trump administration is now pushing Lebanon’s government to shutter it altogether. Hassan, a taxi driver from southern Lebanon whose daughter was married to a Hezbollah fighter killed during the recent wars, said that although she was still receiving the stipend earmarked for families of slain fighters, the organization is no longer covering some medical procedures. Like thousands of supporters whose homes were destroyed, Hassan said he was still waiting on promised financial support. After the 2024 war, Hezbollah said Al-Qard al-Hassan would distribute $12,000 to $14,000 per household to families whose homes were destroyed. But those compensation payments, repeatedly delayed, have now been halted entirely, according to the Hezbollah spokesman, Mr. al-Zein. “They are totally silent,” Hassan said. Aaron Boxerman, Dayana Iwaza and Patrick Kingsley contributed reporting. Euan Ward is a Times reporter covering Lebanon and Syria. He is based in Beirut. Eric Schmitt is a national security correspondent for The Times. He has reported on U.S. military affairs and counterterrorism for more than three decades. Contact him securely on Signal: @ericschmitt.36. Ronen Bergman is a staff writer for The New York Times Magazine, based in Tel Aviv. |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
SNSC is the Supreme National Security Council. Ali Larijani was a prior secretary, and his replacement just got bumped.
Tasnim indicates that Mohsen Rezaee has been named secretary of #Iran's regime's SNSC in addition to being named as Mojtaba Khamenei's representative on the SNSC, which is in line with tradition. Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, according to Iranian media, will be named a political affairs advisor to the supreme leader, which is a demotion. It also is an unusually short tenure for Zolghadr as SNSC secretary--the shortest one in the history of the Islamic Republic's SNSC--which shows there is much drama behind the scenes as the system has to deal with the damage from the war. It turned out Mohammad Bagher Kharrazi was onto something in that controversial interview he gave. Rezaee has long been a hardline actor in Tehran. During a presidential campaign in 2021, Rezaee said, "We’ll take 1,000 Americans hostage. America will have to pay several billions to get every single one freed. This is how we can solve our economic problems.” Rezaee, who had previously been really put out to pasture as the longtime secretary of the Expediency Council and failed presidential candidate after being #IRGCterrorists commander-in-chief until 1997, has reentered the inner sanctum of decision-making since the war, first serving as a military advisor to Khamenei. Rezaee is subject to an INTERPOL Red Notice for the AMIA bombing, and his ascension to the SNSC, coupled with Ahmad Vahidi's SNSC membership, will continue the tradition of figures who are steeped in asymmetric warfare dominating the SNSC. Rezaee, a former IRGC commander-in-chief who oversaw a particularly active period of IRGC terror plots (Argentina 1992, Argentina 1994, Khobar Towers 1996, etc.) and Vahidi, a former Quds Force commander, will be key figures. This was a choice likely forced on Pezeshkian--just days ago he said he rejected Zolghadr's resignation--as was Zolghadr originally. It shows his weakness as president. Zolghadr served under Rezaee for years when Rezaee was IRGC commander-in-chief--both were hardline actors steeped in asymmetric tactics.
A U.S. Air Force MQ-9A “Reaper” Medium-Altitude Combat Drone has crashed near Chabelley Airfield to the southwest of Djibouti City, after an alert was issued by the U.S. Embassy in Djibouti regarding an aircraft in distress that was being tracked in Djiboutian Airspace. The MQ-9 was likely returning from a mission over the Bab al-Mandab Strait and Houthi-controlled Yemen. |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
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Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Trump on Truth Social: I see that Representatives of the Islamic Republic of Iran are asking for compensation for the damage done to them during the last five month Military Conflict (started because, THEY WILL NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON), even though it was never mentioned in any of our negotiations or meetings! But it is an interesting idea because now I am likewise demanding compensation from Iran, for all of the people that they have killed and gravely wounded with their roadside bombs and many conflicts, for which they are famous, as led initially by General Soleimani, including the families of those killed on the USS Cole, and thousands of others killed in combat. Additionally, compensation should be paid to the families of the hundreds of thousands of innocent protestors that Iran has killed over the last 50 years, not to mention the 52,000 that have been killed in the last five months. I have instructed my representatives to put this firmly into any, and all, future negotiations. Thank you for your attention to this matter! Attached File |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
The Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until the U.S. fulfills all conditions set out in the June memorandum of understanding, a senior Iranian official told MS NOW. Two requirements were singled out: the unfreezing of Iranian assets and an end to the fighting in Lebanon. The official placed responsibility for the continued closure on Washington.
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Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
BREAKING: Iran declares the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed until 2029, the end of Trump's term, unless Trump accepts all of Iran's demands, per a senior Iranian source and Majid Shakeri, advisor to Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf. Iran's demands in the US surrender document remain unchanged, $300 billion in compensation, the release of up to $100 billion in frozen assets, lifting all sanctions, US troop withdrawal from the entire region, an end to the naval blockade, and accepting transit fees on every ship.
Majid Shakeri, an adviser to Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf: Victory does not mean choosing between war and peace. It means keeping Iran’s enemies trapped in a controlled state somewhere between the 2 until Iran gets what it wants. In short: Iran views the stalemate as a victory Reuters: Yemen's Houthis attack Saudi refinery on Sunday Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis have attacked Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery, they said on Sunday, two days after the kingdom signed a defence pact with Turkey and Pakistan in response to growing regional instability from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. Reuters: Who is Iran's Mohsen Rezaei, the hardliner appointed to key security role? Aug 10 (Reuters) - Iran has appointed Mohsen Rezaei as secretary of its Supreme National Security Council, promoting a prominent hardliner and close ally of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei to the role more than five months into the conflict with the United States. Rezaei replaces Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr as second-in-command of the body that coordinates Iran's security and foreign policy and is chaired by President Masoud Pezeshkian. Zolqadr was appointed as political adviser to Khamenei. Here's what you need to know about Rezaei, 71: COMMANDED REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS AGED 27 Rezaei joined the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps shortly after the 1979 Islamic Revolution and became its commander in 1981 aged 27. He led the IRGC for 16 years, including for most of the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war, and oversaw the expansion of its ground, naval and air capabilities. He is part of a generation of IRGC commanders who emerged from the revolutionary underground and later became senior figures in Iran's security apparatus. A prominent figure in the country's political and security establishment since leaving his role as IRGC commander, he has been a perennial candidate for president of the Islamic Republic. He served as vice president for economic affairs from 2021 to 2023 under hardline President Ebrahim Raisi. He holds a doctorate in economics from the University of Tehran. ADVISER TO MOJTABA Rezaei was appointed military adviser to Khamenei in March after he took over as Iran's Supreme Leader, replacing his father, the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed at the start of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. He has made frequent public statements during the war, voicing deep skepticism about negotiations and threatening the United States. In April, Rezaei said it would be "great" if the U.S. launched a ground invasion of Iran, as "we would take thousands of hostages and then for each hostage we would get a billion dollars". “I am not in favour of extending the ceasefire at all, and this is a personal view," he said at the time. In June, before Iran signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the war on June 17, Rezaei said the agreement had ambiguities that needed to be clarified. On June 27, he accused Washington of violating the deal by creating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Reflecting his close ties to Mojtaba, the Supreme Leader issued a decree on Sunday appointing Rezaei as his representative on the SNSC. Khamenei cited Rezaei's "valuable experience" in the appointment, including his long military career. OPPOSED THE SHAH Rezaei was active in the opposition to the Pahlavi monarchy, which was overthrown in 1979, while still a teenager, and imprisoned by the Shah's security service, SAVAK, in 1973. He helped establish and develop the Mansouroun militant group, which was active against the monarchy in the 1970s. Members of the group who were imprisoned together, including Rezaei, later formed part of the senior leadership of the IRGC. CONTROVERSY OVER RECORD IN IRAN-IRAQ WAR His record during the Iran-Iraq war has been controversial in Iran. Critics have questioned his role in costly offensives that resulted in heavy Iranian casualties, including Operation Karbala-4, a December 1986 assault aimed at breaking through Iraqi defences toward Basra. In 2018, Rezaei sparked renewed controversy by tweeting that Karbala-4 had been carried out to deceive the enemy ahead of Karbala-5. He later clarified that the operation had originally been intended as a genuine offensive, but that Iran subsequently used its failure as a deception ahead of Karbala-5. His comments prompted criticism from veterans, bereaved families and senior political figures. Editing by Tom Perry, William Maclean |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Thanks for continuing this thread, a lot of us read it but don't want to interrupt by posting thanks too often. 
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All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.
Saudi channel Al-Hadath reports, citing its sources, that Quds Force commander Ismail Qa'ani has arrived in Iraq and met with senior officials from the pro-Iranian militias and pro-Iranian parties in the country. The same sources say the sides discussed the Iraqi government's effort to disarm the militias. A separate report to the Iraqi news agency Shafaq News, citing a knowledgeable source, claims Qa'ani and the pro-Iranian elements will also discuss giving Iraq a practical option to export oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Attached File
The IDF has begun a covert operation to seize the Ali Taher ridge, according to a Lebanese security source. Per the source, Hezbollah and Revolutionary Guard terrorists are in a bad position because the IDF controls the ridge and the supply routes, and its fall may be a matter of time. Hezbollah, meanwhile, is working to dig tunnels and underground passages along the ridge to create alternative supply lines. |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
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Originally Posted By brass: Thanks for continuing this thread, a lot of us read it but don't want to interrupt by posting thanks too often. Originally Posted By brass: Thanks for continuing this thread, a lot of us read it but don't want to interrupt by posting thanks too often. 
Earlier today, CENTCOM forces disabled the steering gear of Panama-flagged M/V Vela Nova as the cargo vessel attempted to transit the Gulf of Oman and violate the U.S. blockade against Iran by sailing toward an Iranian port. A U.S. Navy MH-60 helicopter fired two hellfire missiles into the Vela Nova’s engine room after the ship’s civilian crew ignored repeated warnings from American forces. The ship is no longer transiting to Iran in violation of the U.S. blockade, which remains in full effect. As of Aug. 11, CENTCOM has redirected 55 commercial vessels attempting to run the blockade, disabled 3 non-compliant vessels, and boarded 2. U.S. forces operating in the Middle East are highly vigilant, lethal, and ready.
BREAKING: The U.S. military is ruling the skies over southern Iran. Video recorded near Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz, southern Iran, shows a U.S. Army AH-64E Guardian attack helicopter patrolling over the Strait and flying near Iranian fishing boats to identify the individuals aboard them and ensure that they are not members of the IRGC Navy. Because of the presence of these helicopters, as well as armed drones, fighter jets, and many other U.S. military assets over the Strait of Hormuz, IRGC Navy personnel can no longer freely operate vessels or boats in the waters off southern Iran. Only local fishermen and civilians are allowed by the U.S. military to sail in the waters south of Iran.
Two competing accounts have emerged over what Houthi forces and loyalists reportedly struck near the Bab al-Mandab Strait. The vessel has been identified as TIHAMAH, IMO 1031329. Houthi military media @MMY1444 claimed that its forces targeted a Saudi vessel transporting military equipment through Bab al-Mandab. It characterized the vessel and its activity as military. Wadah Dobish @wadahdobish, spokesperson for the Joint Forces on Yemen’s western coast, offered a sharply different account. He identified TIHAMAH as a privately operated civilian vessel authorized to transport passengers and supplies between Aden, Djibouti, Somalia and Socotra. According to his preliminary account, the vessel was struck by two missiles while near the Bab al-Mandab coast, killing four crew members, including three Pakistanis and one Indonesian, and injuring seven others. He also claimed that a second strike occurred as a rescue team boarded the vessel, killing a member of the naval rescue team. The central discrepancy is therefore the vessel’s status and activity at the time of the strike. The Houthis describe it as transporting Saudi military equipment, while the Joint Forces describe it as a civilian passenger and cargo vessel engaged in routine commercial activity. However, photos and the video below show an empty ship.
The Houthi military spokesman claimed their missile and drone forces struck Tadaween base, the former Saudi-led coalition HQ base roughly seven miles northeast of Ma’rib city. The base has become less active over the years as much of the coalition’s equipment, including patriots and helicopters, has been withdrawn, but it remains in use by Yemen’s Military Region Command. Satellite imagery showing the base before and after the coalition drawdown illustrates the significant reduction in equipment and activity at the site over the years. |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Following messaging from the Houthis’ two key negotiators, the de facto, Sana'a-based Houthi Foreign Ministry, headed by Abdulwahid Abu Ras, a senior member of the Ansar Allah (Houthis) political bureau, issued a statement signaling a conditional willingness to de-escalate with Saudi Arabia. The statement encouraged Riyadh to take what it called a “brave and wise” decision to pursue peace, end hostilities, and implement previously agreed commitments, particularly on humanitarian issues. This language offers Saudi Arabia a face-saving path toward accommodation and suggests that the Houthis remain interested in keeping negotiations open. However, the statement should not be read as a clear softening of the Houthi position. Its diplomatic opening is paired with accusatory and coercive language. The ministry repeatedly refers to Riyadh as the “Saudi regime,” characterizes Saudi actions as “aggression,” “hostile projects,” and “illegal activities,” and accuses it of maintaining the blockade and depriving Yemen of its wealth. More significantly, it warns that Saudi Arabia has already suffered from its policies and that its future losses will be greater if it misreads current regional changes.
Hamas has rejected new measures from Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas designed to bar the group from the November 28 legislative elections, the first Palestinian vote in two decades. Hamas: "We reject any political preconditions for candidacy that would exclude the resistance factions from national institutions." |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Link For the first time, the Israel Defense Forces and the Shin Bet have acknowledged that a special operation has been established with a dedicated unit to hunt down and kill every single Palestinian terrorist involved in the October 7, 2023, invasion and massacre. As recently reported by The Times of Israel, the IDF and Shin Bet have devoted significant time and resources to eliminating the terrorists who took part in the October 7 atrocities, in which some 1,200 people were killed and 251 taken hostage. Officers of the special joint IDF-Shin Bet unit dubbed “Nili” have worked over the last three years to compile an extensive list running to thousands of names of those involved in the atrocities, and painstakingly worked to identify, find and eliminate them. The IDF and Shin Bet refused multiple requests for comment from the Times of Israel when it reported last month that the military and security agency have in the past few months stepped up a large-scale retribution campaign with the aim of hunting down and eliminating every single terrorist who took part in the October 7 massacre. Israel has created a list of all the Gazans who were identified as having invaded Israeli territory on October 7, the Times of Israel reported, using a plethora of video and photographic evidence of the attack posted online by terrorists during and after the attack, and running the footage through facial recognition software. Also on the list are all Hamas leaders involved in orchestrating the massacre, according to Israeli officials. Speaking to Channel 12 news on Saturday night, some of the Nili officers openly described their mission for the first time, detailing who has been targeted and the means used to locate and kill them. According to the Channel 12 report, 2,800 people on Nili’s list have been killed, including the 1,200 terrorists killed by Israeli security forces in southern Israel during the onslaught, the worst-ever invasion of Israel and the bloodiest single attack in the history of the nation. The Times of Israel reported last month that of the estimated 5,000 terrorists who participated in the October 7 attack or helped hold hostages, more than 2,700 have been confirmed by the military to have been killed — including those who were killed during the onslaught and those targeted in the Strip amid the war. Another 300 alleged perpetrators have been captured by Israel and await judgment by special military tribunals, which have yet to be set up. Those convicted of genocide will be eligible for the death penalty. According to the officers interviewed by Channel 12, as well as Adi Rotem, a former senior official in the Shin Bet, Nili created a spreadsheet with thousands of names, and then began the immense, laborious, and time-consuming task of identifying and locating each one. Rotem described the information amassed as “an endless pile of material,” which the Nili’s officers compiled and worked through. The unit developed specialized tools for facial recognition to identify their targets, using, among other sources, the footage from the GoPro-style cameras used by the terrorists when they recorded their massacres and atrocities on October 7. Traditional intelligence tools involving Shin Bet and IDF Intelligence agents on the ground were also used to collect information, as well as information from Palestinian detainees held in Israel, while artificial intelligence tools were used to “complete the picture,” Rotem added. Aleph, a sergeant first class in Nili, said that the unit also added everyone to its kill list who was involved in holding the hostages taken captive by terrorists from southern Israel, as well as those who met with them and abused them in their captivity. Terrorists who participated in the hostage release ceremonies have also been targeted. Among those eliminated have been the terrorists who kidnapped 85-year old Yaffa Adar, 12-year old Yagil Yaakov, Yarden Bibas, and Avinatan Or, as well as the driver of a tractor who infamously broke through the border fence, the TV report said. “It could be the driver who drove a tractor [across the border], and it could be a Nukhba company commander who led the invasion,” said Lammed, a lieutenant in the IDF’s Southern Command working in Nili. “You feel the tension [when an elimination operation is underway]. You feel the quiet, the seconds before the missile hits; everyone is just waiting for the strike to hit the person,” she added. Lammed said by way of example that just a few weeks ago a platoon commander who led the infamous invasion of the Nahal Oz IDF base was eliminated as a result of Nili’s work. “We knew what time he went to the shop, we knew the path he took; this is the task of intelligence, to take every target of interest to us, and investigate him down to the smallest detail, to the level of when he goes to pray, and what he eats for breakfast,” said Lammed. The Nili unit was named after the World War I-era Jewish underground spy organization Nili. Israeli officials have also invoked the aftermath of the 1972 Munich Olympics as a precedent for the retribution campaign against the October 7 terrorists, The Times of Israel reported last month, pointing to the years-long and partially successful Mossad-led effort to track down and eliminate anyone linked to the massacre of 11 Israeli athletes during the Games. The Nili unit was established immediately after the Hamas-led attack, The Times of Israel reported. It is made up of experienced intelligence personnel from the IDF and Shin Bet, in both the standing army and the reserves. An IDF official said after the October 2025 ceasefire began that the Nili unit’s efforts would continue “even as time passes, until the last of [the terrorists is killed],” and that they were being carried out “in accordance with the legal and operational framework." |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Quds Force commander Ismail Qaani has wrapped his Baghdad visit, meeting Iraq's leadership and pro-Iranian militia reps, per Al-Hadath. He told the militias to hold onto their weapons and pressed Baghdad to "use the card of the militias" as leverage against Washington. Qaani also criticized fighters who agreed to disarm, calling their arsenals Iranian weapons, not Iraqi.
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Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
JPost: Iran has rebuilt its military faster than Israeli defense and Mossad officials expected following the 2026 war with the US and Israel, especially its ballistic missile production. More than 30,000 strikes on over 2,600 targets shattered much of the missile infrastructure, yet production restarted quicker than IDF estimates. Underground sites are being excavated and output scaled back toward thousands of missiles.
Iran warned Damascus against intervening militarily in Lebanon or targeting Hezbollah, saying such action would trigger a wider regional conflict. Tehran reportedly conveyed the warning through Turkey to Syria and informed Ankara, Baghdad, Doha and Riyadh that any Iranian retaliation could target more than 100 strategic sites in Syria, including the presidential palace - Source: Iran's Tasnim News reported citing a Lebanese news agency.
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Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Iran reportedly hit Erbil with drones overnight. Air defenses knocked them out over the Kurdish province and the wreckage came down in a residential area near Erbil airport. No injuries reported. Some reports say the drones were aimed at Erbil Arjaan Rotana Hotel, housing U.S. troops, but this is not confirmed. The U.S. presence at the site is also speculation for now. What's clear is the drones were intercepted and fell near the hotel, not on it.
UKMTO notices about yesterday's attacks on UAE ships Attached File Attached File
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Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
The attack was the third such incident involving ADNOC vessels in less than a week. The UAE had accused Iran of being behind the earlier attacks, but there was no official comment from the UAE on Friday's attack.
A Hamas company commander who was advancing attacks against Israeli troops was struck and killed in the southern Gaza Strip yesterday, the IDF announces. The military says the Thursday strike in Khan Younis killed Hudhaifa Khaled Suleiman Qawari, a commander in Hamas's Khan Younis Brigade. During the war. Qawari had been involved in training Hamas terrorists, transporting weapons, and acting to restore the group's capabilities, according to the IDF. The IDF justifies the strike amid the ceasefire by saying that Qawari had recently been advancing attacks on troops. "The terrorist posed a threat to our forces and was eliminated in an aerial strike," the army adds. Earlier, the IDF announced that a strike two weeks ago in northern Gaza killed Muhammad Bassam Mushtaha, a commander in Hamas's Al-Shati battalion, who invaded Israel on October 7 and held multiple Israelis hostage. |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Attached File
NEW: Iran sent a formal complaint to the Red Cross that Qatar is holding three Iranian pilots whose Su-24s were shot down at the start of the war. Six months later, Qatar still won't allow any contact with them. Iran cited Geneva Convention articles requiring POWs be allowed to notify their families and file complaints.
The Israeli military confirms launching airstrikes in southern Lebanon overnight, saying they came in response to an attack by Hezbollah on troops. The IDF says it struck Hezbollah infrastructure in the Nabatieh area and in Ansar, north of Tyre. A strike in Ansar killed seven and wounded three, according to Lebanese media. A series of strikes were also reported in Nabatieh, including heavy attacks on the Ali Taher Ridge, beneath which Hezbollah has a major underground facility. "The strikes were carried out following an action by the Hezbollah terror organization against our forces in the Ali Taher Ridge area, which is located within the security zone where IDF troops are operating," the military says, without immediately providing details on the Hezbollah attack. |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Hormuz Traffic Rebounds Sharply Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz picked up on 13 August, with 13 confirmed crossings, a 44% day on day increase from nine. Of these, nine vessels used the Iranian Unilateral Scheme, none were confirmed on the Hormuz TSS and four routes remained undetermined. Bab el Mandeb activity was steadier, with 29 confirmed crossings, up 4% from 28. Eighteen vessels entered the Red Sea and 11 exited, while two dark transits were recorded. No new confirmed vessel attacks were reported during the day.
The three soldiers who were seriously wounded in southern Lebanon overnight were hit by an explosive drone launched by Hezbollah, according to the military. At around 2:30 a.m., Hezbollah launched the drone at troops operating at the Ali Taher Ridge area. The drone exploded near soldiers of the elite Yahalom combat engineering unit, seriously wounding an officer and two soldiers. The soldiers were taken to a hospital and their families were notified, the army adds. In response, the military struck Hezbollah sites in Nabatieh and Ansar, killing a senior commander in the terror group.
An IDF tank was struck by a Hamas explosive device in the southern Gaza Strip a short while ago, the military says. The IDF says the incident took place during operations of the Givati Brigade near the "Yellow Line," and no injuries were caused. In a separate incident, soldiers of the Paratroopers Brigade spotted two terror operatives who crossed the Yellow Line "in an attempt to sabotage weapons belonging to IDF troops," the military says. The IDF says the pair approached troops "in a manner that posed a threat," and the soldiers opened fire and killed them. The IDF says both incidents are a "violation of the ceasefire" and it views them "gravely," indicating that the military intends to respond. |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Just three days into the conflict, Qatar said it had shot down a pair of Iranian Sukhoi Su-24 warplanes that were threatening its airspace. Both sides agree one crew member from the two-person jets was recovered dead, but the other three have never turned up. Iran now says they are being held by Qatar as prisoners and is demanding their release. The military’s missing persons committee wrote to the head of the International Committee of the Red Cross asking the organization to visit the pilots after saying its own efforts have been rebuffed by Qatar. Qatar’s Foreign Ministry said late Saturday that it isn’t holding the pilots. Spokesman Majed Al Ansari said on social media that Qatar sent search-and-rescue teams to look for the crew members after their planes were downed and found the remains of one of the pilots. Qatar also invited Iranian officials to visit and be briefed on the details of the search and rescue attempts, but Iran didn’t respond to the invitation, he said. “We categorically deny the claims circulating regarding the detention of Iranian pilots and are surprised by these misleading statements at this particular time, amid the ongoing diplomatic efforts and initiatives aimed at de-escalating tensions in the region,” Ansari said. Qatar has been a key mediator in the latest round of talks between the U.S. and Iran aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for an easing of American economic pressure. Those talks have stalled amid tough demands from Iran’s hard-line leadership and U.S. reluctance to agree to a deal that doesn’t involve an unimpeded opening of the waterway, a chokepoint for 20% of the world’s oil. The new dispute over the pilots highlights the lack of progress amid a deepening economic standoff. Iran sent its pilots on a number of brazen attack missions during the war, putting its collection of museum-piece warplanes up against the modern jets and air-defense systems deployed by the U.S. and its Arab allies. Many of Iran’s jets date back decades to the time of the Shah. The Su-24 Russian tactical bombers entered service in the early 1970s and were last produced more than 30 years ago. The Trump administration has bragged about destroying Iran’s air force, but it was never much of a contest. The planes routinely crashed during training exercises well before they could get into a fight. Others were picked off on the runway. That weakness led Iran to focus on the ballistic missile program it has used to pound U.S. bases and targets across the Gulf. Given the dated equipment, Israel was surprised when Iran was able to get off a strike on Kuwait during the war with Vietnam-era F-5 planes, an Israeli military official said in June. Iranian state media detailed the attack earlier in the war, saying the jets flew at extremely low altitude to avoid defenses. The U.S. military has said attacks by Iranian jets—along with drones and missiles—contributed to the crowded skies and fog of war when three U.S. F-15s were downed by friendly fire over Kuwait in March.
A senior Hezbollah commander was killed in an Israeli airstrike in the southern Lebanon town of Deir al-Zahrani yesterday, the military announces. The IDF says the strike came in response to a Hezbollah explosive drone attack early Saturday that seriously wounded three soldiers. Lebanese media reported that the Deir al-Zahrani strike on Saturday morning killed two people. Among those killed was Ali Muhammad Fakhr al-Din, also known as Abu Hassan Alaa, who is identified by the IDF as a "senior commander" in Hezbollah's Badr regional division. The regional unit is tasked with the area north of the Litani River. The IDF says that as part of his role, Hassan Alaa took part in numerous attacks on Israeli troops in southern Lebanon. The elimination of Hassan Alaa is in addition to the killing of another senior Hezbollah commander in an Israeli strike yesterday. The IDF announced earlier that it had killed Ali Samir Al-Haj Hassan, a battalion commander in Hezbollah's elite Radwan Force, in a strike in the town of Ansar, also in response to the drone attack.
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Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf: "Our nation stood bravely against the American and Zionist enemy in a cowardly war." "As a servant who is familiar with the details, I say with all my heart that we won this war, in the military and political dimensions, in the literal sense of the word." "This does not mean we destroyed the American army. It means America and Israel attacked us with 9 specific and declared goals, but did not achieve any of the 9 goals, at any level." "This was the biggest absolute failure for America and the Zionist regime. In the field of diplomacy, the memorandum is also a document of honor and victory."
While J.D. Vance and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf were working on an Iran–U.S. deal, Tulsi Gabbard was simultaneously trying to establish a channel with Ahmad Vahidi, a key rival of Ghalibaf within the Iranian power structure. It appears that Nechirvan Barzani, the president of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, ultimately managed to connect the two sides indirectly through a secure phone call. According to reporting published today, Gabbard contacted Barzani in May and asked him to determine whether Vahidi and the IRGC leadership supported the negotiations being conducted by Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. On May 14, an IRGC official reportedly arrived at Barzani’s office in Erbil with an encrypted phone, allowing Barzani to speak directly with Vahidi. Vahidi reportedly told him that he supported the negotiations and that this was also the IRGC’s position. Barzani then briefed Gabbard.
The IDF is preparing for the possibility of several days of combat in Lebanon. The current tensions with Hezbollah come amid Israeli military activity in the Ali Tahr Ridge and Beaufort. Israel is set on destroying terror infrastructure in the area, while Hezbollah attempts to harm its forces-N12
A Lebanese political official from a party opposed to Hezbollah tells Kan News that Hezbollah, directed by Iran, is escalating on the ground to weaken the Lebanese state and sabotage direct Israel-Lebanon negotiations. The official says Beirut still refuses to accept that the root problem is Hezbollah's failure to disarm, contrary to government decisions. This follows Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon, launched in response to a Hezbollah attack on Israeli forces at the Ali Tahr Ridge.
The U.S. administration is applying heavy pressure on Israel to advance to the next phase in the Gaza Strip. Jared Kushner and Nickolay Mladenov meet Netanyahu tomorrow, one day after holding talks with senior Hamas officials in Cairo. Israel's security establishment is preparing for the possibility Washington will demand an end to strikes in Gaza as part of pressure to implement the next stage--Kann News
The IDF says the two strikes in the Gaza Strip within an hour earlier today targeted two terror operatives who were advancing attacks. A member of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad was targeted in southern Gaza's Khan Younis, and a Hamas operative was targeted in Nuseirat in the Strip's center, according to the military. "The terrorists advanced terror attacks and were struck in precise aerial strikes to remove the threat," the army says. |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
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WSJ: Iran’s Secret Plan to Escalate the War Intercepted communications and other intelligence suggest a strategic shift by hard-line leaders to raise the costs for the U.S. and its regional allies Summary: Iran’s hardline leaders have prepared for a larger conflict with the U.S. instead of putting faith in a mid-June memorandum of understanding. Iran’s efforts include giving the Revolutionary Guard more control of the army and ramping up missile and drone output. The Revolutionary Guard has coordinated with allied militias in Yemen and Iraq to expand the battlefield and target Saudi shipping and oil sites. After President Trump signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran in mid-June, administration officials fanned out to build support for an agreement they hoped would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and start winding down the war. Iran’s hard-line leaders huddled in Tehran and came up with a different plan, according to Iranian and Arab officials. In their view the pact was likely just an attempt by the U.S. and Israel to take pressure off the global economy and buy time for a bigger attack down the road. Instead of putting faith in talks, they took the past two months to prepare for a bigger fight. Their efforts include giving the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps more control of the country’s regular army, appointing hardened veterans of the war with Iraq and past internal crackdowns to key posts, expanding domestic counterintelligence operations and ramping up production of missiles and drones. The leadership quickly seized the initiative, attacking ships to tighten Iran’s grip on Hormuz and expanding the battlefield to the Red Sea, which Saudi Arabia has used to get around Iran’s chokehold on the Persian Gulf. Arab intelligence officials have picked up evidence—including communications between Iran and militia allies in countries such as Yemen and Iraq—of a strategic shift inside the country’s hard-line leadership to get their forces ready to widen the war and raise the costs for the U.S., officials familiar with the findings say. Alarming weaker Gulf countries like Kuwait, Iran’s leaders are increasingly talking about offensive operations on enemy territory. Their overriding goal is to inflict enough pain to ensure the kind of attacks Iran has endured with the 12-day war last year and the continuing conflict aren’t repeated. “There is also a widespread view in Iran that the main war has not yet begun,” said Mohammad Hassan Sangtarash, a Tehran-based defense analyst close to the Iranian government. “What we have seen so far is increasingly interpreted through the lens of ‘salami-slicing’ tactics—limited, incremental escalation designed to weaken capabilities before a larger confrontation.” The Iranian preparations point to an enormous gulf between how Washington and Tehran are perceiving this stage of the war. The divergence has driven a hard-line negotiating stance and reluctance to close deals by Iran’s leaders that has persistently flummoxed Trump, who has called them crazy and accused them of lying. Iran’s readiness to fight also highlights a deep lack of trust that is likely to keep the two sides from reaching a durable deal to end the conflict any time soon. Iran’s proclamations include plenty of bravado. The country’s military and economic base have been battered by U.S. and Israeli airstrikes. More pragmatic members of the leadership including Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian have repeatedly warned Iran needs to negotiate a deal to end the war that brings sanctions relief or face the collapse of its economy. But Iran is rebuilding its infrastructure and restoring access to missile bases much more quickly than expected, a concern to Israeli officials who are familiar with the progress. It also has successfully targeted U.S. bases and retains enough firepower to threaten ships and Gulf energy infrastructure. Arab officials are bracing for continued fighting and an extended disruption of energy supplies. For the regime, “the baseline is war,” said Alan Eyre, a former senior U.S. diplomat and nuclear negotiator with Iran. “Iran will remain on a wartime footing, preparing for a subsequent attack.” When Trump signed the memorandum of understanding with Iran on June 17 at the French palace of Versailles, it looked like the biggest hurdle would be convincing American critics that it wasn’t overly generous to Tehran. The deal promised sanctions waivers to let Iran sell its oil, access to billions of dollars in frozen cash and the prospect of a $300 billion fund to rebuild the country. Iran’s main obligation was to open the Strait of Hormuz to shipping traffic and then negotiate in good faith on its nuclear program. When Iran started shooting at ships the U.S. was guiding through the strait three weeks later in early July, it caught the U.S. by surprise. “The very dangerous people from Iran, they’re sick,” said Trump, who also called Iran’s leaders scum. “There’s something wrong with them.” In fact Iran was pursuing a two-track policy. While his diplomats pursued a peace deal with the U.S., Iranian leader Mojtaba Khamenei was taking steps to prepare the security apparatus for an expanded confrontation that may be initiated by Tehran itself. The Revolutionary Guard used the calm created by the memorandum of understanding to lay the groundwork with allied militias around the region to step up attacks if needed, sending advisers to Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon to discuss the plans, the officials familiar with recent Arab intelligence findings said. The intelligence including intercepted communications showed the Revolutionary Guard sending commanders to areas controlled by Yemen’s Houthis to plan for a stepped-up confrontation with Saudi Arabia in coordination with Iraqi militias that also are backed by Iran. The Revolutionary Guard supervised deployments of missiles, naval weapons and drone launchers to positions overlooking the Red Sea. It also provided the Yemeni militants with intelligence, target lists including Saudi ports and energy facilities, and advice on sheltering from Saudi retaliation, the officials said. The result was fighting that escalated through late July. The Houthis struck Yemeni government forces backed by Saudi Arabia and declared the Bab al-Mandeb Strait that links the Red Sea to world markets closed to Saudi Arabia. The militant group has fired on Saudi ships, complicating the kingdom’s efforts to export its oil and raising the supply risks for global markets. Around the same time, Saudi Arabia said Iran-backed militias in Iraq had launched drone attacks on its oil facilities. The Revolutionary Guard threatened Gulf states that it would destroy their energy facilities if the U.S. were to hit similar sites in Iran—going as far as sending detailed lists of individual targets to its Arab counterparts, the officials said. Iran also escalated its attacks on American troops. Tehran surprised the U.S. by firing five ballistic missiles at Jordan during a lull in the conflict. The attack came two weeks after another Iranian strike in Jordan killed three U.S. servicemembers. Officials in the Gulf grew more alarmed as they watched the scope of attacks grow and Iranian missiles evade U.S. defenses and hit targets more precisely in Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain. The fighting spilled into August, with Iran striking six United Arab Emirates ships over the past two weeks as they tried to transit the Strait of Hormuz. “We took full advantage of the ceasefire period,” Revolutionary Guard spokesman Brig. Gen. Hossein Mohebbi said in an interview with the Guard-affiliated Tasnim news agency in July. “We enhanced our capabilities, accelerated our missile production rate and improved missile accuracy.” Behind the scenes, Supreme Leader Khamenei was positioning his forces for a more aggressive fight, lining up seven key security leaders to run revamped military and repression institutions in a reorganization that was unveiled a week ago. The appointments came with aggressive goals that included tightening the military chain of command, turning an ideological militia into a neighborhood intelligence agency and emphasizing an offensive approach. Mohsen Rezaei, who led the Revolutionary Guard during the war with Iraq in the 1980s, was named secretary of Iran’s top decision-making body, the Supreme National Security Council, where he will be Khamenei’s representative. In the past week, the council squelched progress on a deal to gradually open Hormuz. To step up internal security, Khamenei returned veteran Hossein Taeb, a close associate who led a deadly crackdown on protests in 2009, to the helm of the Basij. The supreme leader tasked him with pivoting the volunteer force into a “popular intelligence network” in the wake of two wars that showed how thoroughly Iran had been breached by Israeli intelligence. Iranian government advisers see the next stage of the confrontation going beyond conventional warfare to include external attempts to foster domestic unrest. The government brutally suppressed protests over the country’s economic crisis in January and fears it’s only a matter of time before the continued deterioration under U.S. pressure brings demonstrators back to the street. Khamenei also consolidated Revolutionary Guard influence over the regular army by unifying control of the two military arms under Brig. Gen. Ali Abdollahi, a veteran Revolutionary Guard senior commander and military leader who has aggressively advocated attacks on Arab states hosting U.S. bases around the Persian Gulf. New Revolutionary Guard Commander in Chief Ahmad Vahidi—who has been unofficially on the job since March—was formally given the position and tasked with “powerful offensive operations against the enemy,” the decree appointing him said Monday. The next day, Gen. Mohammad Reza Naghdi, an adviser to Vahidi, said the paramilitary force must be prepared to take operations into enemy territory. “Vahidi’s elevation is consistent with a leadership preparing the security establishment for a period of sustained confrontation rather than a return to normal peacetime politics,” said Saeid Golkar, an expert on Iran’s security services at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga. The Revolutionary Guard—an armed force nearly 200,000 strong—has devised new plans for further escalation including pre-emptive strikes, according to Iranian officials and public statements. Among the options: sabotaging internet cables in the Persian Gulf, creating political unrest in countries with Shia communities such as Kuwait and Bahrain, and potentially even ground operations in Kuwait. Kuwait takes those risks seriously. In early May, the tiny Gulf sheikhdom said its security forces had intercepted six Revolutionary Guard troops that used a rented fishing boat to land on a Kuwaiti island separated from Iran only by a thin strip of Iraqi territory. Some Iranian political figures have suggested the Revolutionary Guard could launch ground raids via southern Iraq if the U.S. were to threaten Iranian territory like Kharg Island. Some Gulf officials said Iran’s recent behavior is fueling uncertainty about relations with the much larger, newly more aggressive neighbor after the war. They say it remains difficult to assess the extent of the damage the U.S. and Israel did to the Revolutionary Guard’s capabilities. Still, it’s clear the organization hasn’t been defeated or deterred, and its hold on Hormuz has strengthened its regional position, they said. That reality has helped push Gulf states to support even unfavorable deals that would acknowledge Iranian oversight of the strait if it stops further escalation. But regional leaders are also growing more frustrated by the lack of fundamental changes in Tehran’s behavior in response to diplomatic outreach. Iran’s security-minded leadership, they said, appears to be growing more confident in its demands. Mediators in the talks said Iranian diplomats agreed early in the month on a deal with Oman to set up and oversee routes through Hormuz that would lead to the gradual reopening of the strait. Those efforts were blocked by the Revolutionary Guard, which went back to attacking ships. With negotiations blocked and Iran not backing away from escalating the fight, Trump has stepped back to see if the economic pressure from sanctions and the Navy’s blockade will soften Iran’s position, U.S. officials said. But Iran’s leaders are deeply skeptical of Trump’s motives and are slipping into a survival economy aimed at holding out. People close to Iran’s top negotiators have warned peace talks could be just an interlude before more conflict. Mehdi Mohammadi, a strategic adviser to chief Iranian negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, described the current stalemate Tuesday as the calm before the storm. In an earlier social-media post, Mohammadi said the drivers of continued conflict include a “generational project for blood vengeance” for the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Mojtaba’s father, in the opening strikes of the war. “The Iranian nation still has much unfinished business with Trump,” said Mohammadi, who is also a member of Iran’s negotiating team. “Iran is prepared for the great confrontation.” |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
A diplomatic source told the Lebanese newspaper Nidaa al-Watan that the confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed organization, has entered a new phase of complex security messages. According to the source, the Israeli airstrikes that killed senior Hezbollah officials were a difficult message directed at the organization.
Iranian drones struck the personal office of Iraqi Kurdistan Region PM Masrour Barzani early this morning, along with the home of the head of the region's security and intelligence agency. No casualties were reported. Barzani confirmed the strikes after an investigation by the Kurdistan Region's counterterrorism unit. Barzani: "I strongly condemn these reckless and unacceptable attacks. This is a dangerous escalation and a direct threat to the security and stability of the Kurdistan region. These attacks will not deter us from fulfilling our duties and protecting our citizens." Attached File |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
BREAKING: Iran gives the US an ultimatum of "3-4 weeks" to meet all of its demands or it will "severely escalate in the Strait of Hormuz" and launch its planned preemptive strike on US-backed Gulf infrastructure, and US & Israeli assets, a senior Iranian source in Tehran familiar with the matter says. Iran's demands include: 1. $300 billion in reconstruction funds 2. Full release of Iran's frozen assets of up to $120 billion 3. Lifting of the U.S. naval blockade 4. End to the war across all fronts, including Gaza and Lebanon 5. Accepting Iran's permanent control of the Strait of Hormuz, including up to 7% of transit fees 6. The lifting of all US sanctions on Iranian oil, petrochemical products, and gas
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi: Nothing justifies the reckless attack on PM Barzani's office. Kurdish friends should be vigilant against false-flag ploys to sow discord between neighbors. We protected our Kurdish friends against Saddam and DAESH, and we're thankful for security they've provided on our border.
HAMAS CEASEFIRE VIOLATION: A Hamas explosive device exploded in the Yellow Line area in northern Gaza and terrorists fired toward the same area. No IDF injuries were reported. In response, the IDF struck in the Yellow Line area. We will continue operating in accordance with the ceasefire agreement while removing any immediate threat. |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Attached File
The runway of a military airport in northwestern Syria was targeted overnight by unidentified fighter jets, according to Arab media, with some of the reports suspecting that Israel was behind the strike. Al Jazeera reported that four strikes hit the runway of Abu al-Zuhour Military Airport near Idlib -- not far from the border with Turkey -- and Al Hadath described them as "likely Israeli." There has been no comment from Israel on the reports. Israel has been seeking to prevent Turkish entrenchment and influence in Syria, and in the past carried out strikes purportedly to stop Turkey from assisting in building up the new Syrian government's air force. If confirmed to be an Israeli airstrike, it would mark the first such attack by the Israeli Air Force since March 2026, when the IDF said it hit Syrian military camps in the country's south in response to an alleged attack on Druze civilians in the Sweida area. Before that, in July 2025, the IDF bombed the Syrian general staff command building in Damascus, also in response to attacks on the Druze. |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
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Attached File |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Attached File
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Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Attack from Saturday Attached File Attached File
BREAKING: Happening tonight, Israeli Air and Space Force fighter jets, particularly F-35I Adirs operating from Nevatim Air Base, are patrolling over Syria to ensure that the Turkish Air Force does not engage in any aggressive or potentially dangerous activity against Israel. The patrols come amid sharply rising tensions between Israel and Turkey following today's Israeli strikes on Abu al-Duhur Air Base in northwestern Syria, which drew strong condemnation from Ankara. |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
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Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Israel confirms it was behind overnight airstrikes against a Syrian military airport, where it claims Turkey was planning to deploy forces. "Israel and Syria agreed to a status quo in security matters, which Syria was on the verge of breaching by permitting Turkish troops to deploy at an airbase near Aleppo," says Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office in an English-language statement. The Prime Minister's Office says Israel "repeatedly warned Syria that such a deployment would pose a threat to Israel's security." "Syria chose to ignore these warnings," the PMO says, adding a that Israel "will not tolerate threats to its security, and would welcome a return to the status quo."
The military says its strike earlier today near the port of Gaza City targeted commanders and operatives in Hamas's elite Nukhba force while they were meeting. One of the terrorists had invaded Israel during the October 7, 2023, onslaught, according to the IDF. The military says that the targets included a Nukhba force company commander, three platoon commanders, and several more terror operatives. The results of the strike will be released once verified, the IDF says. According to Palestinian media, the strike hit a cafe and killed six and wounded 10 others. The army says that it took steps to minimize the harm to civilians in the strike. |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Iran Update Special Report, August 18, 2026: Russia has continued to provide direct military support to Iran through weapons and weapons components transfers. NBC News reported on August 18 that Russia has transferred drone components, ammunition, and TNT explosives to Iran via the Caspian Sea as of July 2026, citing a European government document that NBC obtained and that an unspecified Western official verified. More Key Takeaways: Russia’s drone component transfers to Iran are indicative of the active military support that Russia has provided Iran and its drone program in recent months. Iran has reportedly used “Russian-enhanced versions” of Shahed drones and Russian targeting intelligence to attack US forces and assets during the war, according to US intelligence officials. |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
The strike on a Syrian airbase "carried a real risk of rapid escalation into a direct military confrontation between Israel and Turkey as well as Syria," U.S. special envoy to Syria Tom Barrack tells the Jerusalem Post. Barrack: Turkish forces did not know Israeli aircraft were en route to the base or their purpose, and could have scrambled their own jets believing they were under attack.
Two Hamas tunnels, spanning in total some two kilometers underground, were recently sealed by combat engineers, the IDF announces. The IDF says the tunnels were located in central and southern Gaza, amid efforts to clear the Israeli-held portion of the Strip of Hamas infrastructure. The two tunnels were sealed with concrete, the army says. Sealing tunnels with concrete can be a cheaper and less risky alternative to blowing them up, although it takes longer to carry out. |
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday