User Panel
Posted: 5/10/2022 11:31:31 AM EST
I was reading Too Fragile to Fight: Could the U.S. Military Withstand a War of Attrition and thought I'd run it by rest of you guys. TL;DR version - America no longer has enough non-defense manufacturing capacity that can be repurposed to make defense 'stuff', like "(during) World War II, Westinghouse converted factories from producing household appliances to making items like aircraft parts and ammunition". Hypothetical scenario: China helps Russia rearm and in 2025 they both invade Europe, while China/Norks also invade Taiwan / South Korea / Japan / Philippines. Everybody agrees not to use nukes, because they are yucky. For those of you who work in non-defense manufacturing - could your workplace convert to make something (anything) defense related in, for example, 3-6 months?
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Not only are many of the manufacturers gone, but there's also the labor shortage. A lot of people still don't want to work. Especially a factory job for 40-72hrs a week.
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i would love to have seen GE Schenectady at its most productive time
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If it turns into WWIII... it will be because "Tactical Nukes" used by Putin.
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I doubt it and if we absolutely have to it may get very conventional after a while.
Conventional wisdom is that you'll go to war with what you have and won't have time to replenish losses. Nuclear weapons have made industrial warfare obsolete. Add in globalization and there are a lot of things we cant make here in any timely manner either because the supplier is now a hostile nation, US factories are geared just for final assembly of foreign components, or the industry is completely absent in the US. For example, just getting precursors for medications would a massive pain if we couldn't source from India or China. How many exotic materials go into a F35? "The whole damn thing's pretty conventional now. Who knows? Maybe next week will be swords..." |
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Russia invade Europe?
Russia can't even successfully invade their little brother. The Germans could probably repulse the Russians, and the Polish wouldn't even let them get that far. |
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Quoted: We did not have this before WWII yet they stepped up their game pretty quickly. There's your manufacturing by country. Yes China is more but they have 4x the population. https://assets.weforum.org/editor/eQeyScvZsQc9Dufdj6-gGbjtaPPIzR4O9mgPOcLMG-g.jpeg View Quote Cranking out volume is one thing, cranking out quality is something else all together. |
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If the gov was willing to piss off the enviro-nazis and nimby-fucks, sure.
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Quoted: Cranking out volume is one thing, cranking out quality is something else all together. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: We did not have this before WWII yet they stepped up their game pretty quickly. There's your manufacturing by country. Yes China is more but they have 4x the population. https://assets.weforum.org/editor/eQeyScvZsQc9Dufdj6-gGbjtaPPIzR4O9mgPOcLMG-g.jpeg Cranking out volume is one thing, cranking out quality is something else all together. Something about quantity having a quality of its own comes to mind. China has a lot they can throw into the meat grinder, how long do you think the US would do that, especially after the Iraq and Afghanistan debacles. The post about China producing a lot of our stuff, including precursors, is spot on as well as is the post about having to piss off the environazis to actually ramp up production for so many things we've outsourced. Not saying we couldn't, but I do question our ability to pull together as a nation at this point to do the needful. |
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The Potato will surrender to "save lives", "if it saves just one baby...oh wait."
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We don't manufacture enough Processors right now to meet our domestic automotive needs for the civilian market. We have ONE single lithium mine in the whole country.
So, simply in terms of the materials necessary to manufacture things in high numbers, NO, we are not the arsenal of democracy. If we tomorrow started to seek to be independent it would take ten years before we could reach that level of independence to be able to produce the weapons necessary to sustain ourselves alone in a large two front global war similar to WW2. Think of this, we couldn't even supply our soldiers with anti-biotics in high enough numbers or other basic medical supplies right now if we had to increase the size of our military to WW2 numbers and had massive WIAs. We are entirely dependent on Asia for those items. While you have been working your ass off so busy with day to day life to just keep your head above water the elites have been trading away our entire Republic for near term short sighted personal gain. |
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Quoted: China can though. They have a fuck ton of precision machines just making Iphones. I am no fan of China but I wouldn't say they can't build stuff to a high standard when needed. View Quote Problem is they have cultural issues that prevent them from doing high standard long term mass production on their own. |
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Quoted: China can though. They have a fuck ton of precision machines just making Iphones. I am no fan of China but I wouldn't say they can't build stuff to a high standard when needed. View Quote They can and will make anything you want to the tolerances and standard you are willing to pay them to adhere to. |
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Ford, Chevy, Dodge can't even build cars right now because of supply chain and chips for computer systems. No way could we build enough stuff for WW3.
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Quoted: When it becomes on them to do it for their country how well can they do it? The capability is there but how much will. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: They can and will make anything you want to the tolerances and standard you are willing to pay them to adhere to. Their government essentially encourages them to cheat the west (as does their culture of face), when it comes to their own domestic production of things the party wants, things change a bit. They've publicly executed politicians and businessmen who were caught cheating the government. I have been told by folks who are affiliated with manufacturing in China that they have to keep a representative on site to continually monitor and inspect products to ensure quality standards and that the Chinese government does the same thing with their military production. They also tend to be nationalistic (like most countries) and would likely be more inclined to produce better products to support a war effort. They engage in a lot of propaganda as far as military capability, but I'd rather overestimate them than underestimate. Their lack of respect for human life and racial hatred of their neighbors adds another multiplier in the mix. I expect that if they start invading their neighbors they'll go full Rape of Nanking on them, especially the Japanese and Koreans. |
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... can America still be 'Arsenal of Democracy'? View Quote The Javelin has become known world-wide over the last two months. European countries can't give Ukraine enough US-made Javelins, Stingers, and M777 howitzers. A national war declaration means the government can direct the civil manufacturing base to produce war materiel, shifting priority. No more i-phones, Androids, or other consumer goods. No civilian cars, trucks, or recreational side-by-sides. No make-up or shit for the Shopping Channel, amazon, and WalMart. It took Detroit two years to start meeting war production for WWII -- with two years preparatory notice given in 1940. Until then, you have the current few firms who specialize in military goods and services. |
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Quoted: i would love to have seen GE Schenectady at its most productive time View Quote One of my earliest memories was visiting my mother at her job at the big GE building in Houston, back in the 1960s. That was just the office building. I imagine the manufacturing facilities were just something to behold. |
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If China kicks off a war with Taiwan I think they're likely to lose their foreign oil imports pretty quickly and will face major issues at home from the loss of energy.
America will certainly have major issues ramping production, but there are a lot of natural resources in the Americas and no real risk of losing our energy unless the war goes nuclear. We should be more resilient as US made chip production comes online in the next two years. If our administration was smart they would be pushing for more oil and gas production to keep our manufacturing costs lower and tamp down inflation. But it's Biden and I don't expect that to happen. |
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With whom would we fight?
If we started a fight with China, our financial systems could collapse. China owns such a huge amount of US debt, equities, and other assets. |
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Quoted: We did not have this before WWII yet they stepped up their game pretty quickly. There's your manufacturing by country. Yes China is more but they have 4x the population. https://assets.weforum.org/editor/eQeyScvZsQc9Dufdj6-gGbjtaPPIzR4O9mgPOcLMG-g.jpeg View Quote Thank both parties for that shit. |
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For those of you who work in non-defense manufacturing - could your workplace convert to make something (anything) defense related in, for example, 3-6 months? View Quote Yes. I could be tooled up to make millions of STANAG mags per year within that time frame like falling off a log. |
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Quoted: Quoted: Problem is they have cultural issues that prevent them from doing high standard long term mass production on their own. Some cultures shift through war and prevail while some never are able to adapt and don't. Time would tell, but my money would be on China's culture not shifting in time. |
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No. We de-industrialized thanks to Bubba Klington & free trade. Only three steel mills in Estados Unidos now? No coal for firing up the plants either.
I have long maintained that if we wanted to, we could not re-fight WW II. |
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Quoted: Non-nuke world war? View Quote Nobody really knows how it would play out. We've traded barbs with the Russians for the better part of the last century with people getting killed but nobody shooting a nuke off. Go further back and consider that neither side used chemical weapons extensively in WW2 despite the fact that they were available. Kind of amazing when you think about how desperate Hitler was in the latter half and he still didn't do it. The Nazis had some pretty good stuff too apparently. I think the bigger thing is that nobody wants to risk fucking around and finding out. |
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Quoted: Not only are many of the manufacturers gone, but there's also the labor shortage. A lot of people still don't want to work. Especially a factory job for 40-72hrs a week. View Quote Now get a draft going and see how all the Tactical Tubbies do waddling across the battlefields. America's young men and women are too out of shape to fight. |
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No. We no longer have the tools nor the tools needed to build the tools. If we did, there would be no shortage of new autos, due to supply chain issues.
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Quoted: Of course we can. The Javelin has become known world-wide over the last two months. European countries can't give Ukraine enough US-made Javelins, Stingers, and M777 howitzers. A national war declaration means the government can direct the civil manufacturing base to produce war materiel, shifting priority. No more i-phones, Androids, or other consumer goods. No civilian cars, trucks, or recreational side-by-sides. No make-up or shit for the Shopping Channel, amazon, and WalMart. It took Detroit two years to start meeting war production for WWII -- with two years preparatory notice given in 1940. Until then, you have the current few firms who specialize in military goods and services. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: ... can America still be 'Arsenal of Democracy'? The Javelin has become known world-wide over the last two months. European countries can't give Ukraine enough US-made Javelins, Stingers, and M777 howitzers. A national war declaration means the government can direct the civil manufacturing base to produce war materiel, shifting priority. No more i-phones, Androids, or other consumer goods. No civilian cars, trucks, or recreational side-by-sides. No make-up or shit for the Shopping Channel, amazon, and WalMart. It took Detroit two years to start meeting war production for WWII -- with two years preparatory notice given in 1940. Until then, you have the current few firms who specialize in military goods and services. We have been sending those old machines around the world for decades. The ability is not there anymore. |
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Quoted: No. We no longer have the tools nor the tools needed to build the tools. If we did, there would be no shortage of new autos, due to supply chain issues. View Quote |
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Quoted: We have been sending those old machines around the world for decades. The ability is not there anymore. View Quote The ability is there, but it won't be utilized until it's cost effective to do so. |
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Quoted: Nobody really knows how it would play out. We've traded barbs with the Russians for the better part of the last century with people getting killed but nobody shooting a nuke off. Go further back and consider that neither side used chemical weapons extensively in WW2 despite the fact that they were available. Kind of amazing when you think about how desperate Hitler was in the latter half and he still didn't do it. The Nazis had some pretty good stuff too apparently. I think the bigger thing is that nobody wants to risk fucking around and finding out. View Quote Probably is a difference in the definition of a "world war" ,people have different definitions |
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If the Taliban agreed to a lend lease deal America would have access to a good supply of gear.
FJB and sissy boy Miley. |
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Quoted: @woodsie Thank you for actually answering the question in the OP. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Yes. I could be tooled up to make millions of STANAG mags per year within that time frame like falling off a log. @woodsie Thank you for actually answering the question in the OP. It's not a stretch that Deere, CAT, etc, currently building and with a domestic supply chain of suppliers, bulldozers, couldn't in a short period instead be building Abrams and LAVs. The competencies are identical. What's amazing about the WW2 industrialization is the number of operations that switched to producing something incredibly differentiated from their core competencies. Postal Meter rifles or whatever. That kind of change requires skilled labor, and those lost skills are what will hurt us the most, but even then, it's a time problem and not a "is this possible?" problem. The original question, could US industry do a WW2 again? The answer is unequivocally yes. The only question is how long it will take and whether the citizenry will except the need to do so because of the negative impact it will have on them. Lots of jobs doing esoteric shit that no one will place value on when faced with a war of attrition. It's less a question of ability and more of a question of whether enough of our society will accept that the threat to our existence outweighs the negative impact to the status quo of their lives. |
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If we get anything out of Russia invading Ukraine, it has shown us how they operate. Sure, they have destroyed shit and killed people, but one would think they might have done a better job of it.
https://ifunny.co/picture/stripes-come-to-life-zelensky-rates-the-russians-they-re-TyiXAkjP9?msclkid=40859907d09511ecbe0212def84640a8 |
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Our domestic manufacturing facilities are not untouchable. We are far too dependent on importation of strategic materials.
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Quoted: Of course we can. The Javelin has become known world-wide over the last two months. European countries can't give Ukraine enough US-made Javelins, Stingers, and M777 howitzers. A national war declaration means the government can direct the civil manufacturing base to produce war materiel, shifting priority. No more i-phones, Androids, or other consumer goods. No civilian cars, trucks, or recreational side-by-sides. No make-up or shit for the Shopping Channel, amazon, and WalMart. It took Detroit two years to start meeting war production for WWII -- with two years preparatory notice given in 1940. Until then, you have the current few firms who specialize in military goods and services. View Quote Could it be done? Yes. Would they do so? Only if they had to. Government would have to force manufacturers to comply (and entice them with contract $) which is exactly what happened in WWII. The auto industry (and others) could manufacture their own microchips if they wanted to. They don't want to. Can you blame them? Why invest all that money into new production capabilities, just to revert to cheaper outsourced chips (once that becomes a reliable option) again? In the meantime they sell fewer units. Ok, but consumers are paying above MSRP and they're selling every unit they can assemble, so not horrible for them really. They'll wait on the Chinese chips to come back into full-scale production. Nbd If it was war, and the US government said, "You have to manufacture the chips yourselves and produce these vehicles. Here's money." They'd do it. The biggest shortage would be trained workers. Per OP's question, my employer doesn't make anything (LE) so I'd continue doing the same job, and be ineligible for the draft. |
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Quoted: What makes you not think that WWIII is already underway View Quote Russia is still calling it special military operation and the US hasn't started drafting anyone. China still hasn't attacked Taiwan. I think it's a bit early to call it WWIII. Maybe in six months or a year that will change. |
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Do we even make cannon barrels here? I believe all of our cannon barrels come from Germany, UK or Swedish firms for all of the various Army/Navy platforms. Was a thread on it long ago, researched it and was pretty shocked at the lack of current US manufacturing of some of the basics and what we outsource to our "allies".
We are going to need to relearn how to make a lot of shit. Something big kicks off bad, the environmental impact studies and emissions permitting won't even be approved by the time the war is over and we have to surrender. |
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Quoted: Most Americans lack the will to contribute to a war effort. View Quote As published in national news, most democrats/progs/leftists would rather flee the US than fight to defend the country! Yellow-bellied communist cowards, constantly doing their all to destroy freedom, the Constitution and the United States of America, because they hate it. And they admit they would flee rather than fight, because despite all the damage they have done so far, they still hate America. Why won't the fuckers just leave NOW.???? |
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