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Posted: 10/12/2024 12:41:18 PM EST
[#1]
I think OP is Victor Davis Hanson.
 
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Posted: 10/12/2024 12:41:39 PM EST
[#2]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Wobblin-Goblin: I've been playing with "270 to win" and no matter how you slice it, the election always comes down to Pennsylvania. Trump needs to keep North Carolina in the aftermath of the hurricane, so assuming that, he could lose all of the following: Arizona Nevada Wisconsin New Hampshire Virginia Michigan ...but if he wins PA, he wins the election. Agreed. But if he did lose PA, there is a lot of combinations of two states that could substitute from your list. MI & NV, AZ & WI, etc. But PA is the easiest and most likely. |
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Posted: 10/12/2024 12:42:49 PM EST
[#3]
Out today from the NYT, of all places:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/12/us/politics/poll-black-voters-harris-trump.html If you don't subscribe to that garbage, this tweet hast the most crucial bits:
Trump doubling...or beyond, even...black support is a massive blow to the urban stranglehold of democrats. If they can't win blacks by a consistent 90% margin they can't retain power almost anywhere. Now when you're seeing this kind of story from the shitrag NYT, consider that it's significantly worse than they say. The alarm bells are going off all over the place for Kameltoe's race. |
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Posted: 10/12/2024 12:49:24 PM EST
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Wobblin-Goblin: If you're not retarded and wrong, then the only way to respond is to respond big like your life depends upon it...because it literally does. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Wobblin-Goblin: Originally Posted By 74novaman: I think they cheated in 20. I think they’re going to have to cheat harder in 24 if they cant find a sufficiently competent nutjob to whack Trump. The GWOT counter terror intel behemoth is pivoting towards domestic threats like election deniers and threats to democracy. They dont care about the cheating being obvious, because they’re going to come down hard on the first big protests about it and set the tone for the future. I really, really, really hope I’m retarded and wrong. If you're not retarded and wrong, then the only way to respond is to respond big like your life depends upon it...because it literally does. Told my daughter this morning that if Trump wins but is not allowed to win we are going to be opening safes and passing out party favors and find out what the second amendment is really all about. |
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Posted: 10/12/2024 12:51:43 PM EST
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Wobblin-Goblin: Take a trip up to New England. Harris-Walz signs everywhere, even at households that didn't have Biden signs four years ago. It's mystifying. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Wobblin-Goblin: Originally Posted By Mr_Nasty99: Even the most diehard liberals I know, don't like Kamala. I don't see any support for her at all. Take a trip up to New England. Harris-Walz signs everywhere, even at households that didn't have Biden signs four years ago. It's mystifying. Had a friend tell me the same thing about New Mexico. Why would you need that many signs in your strongholds? |
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Posted: 10/12/2024 2:38:29 PM EST
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By TEXASROOTERSBROTHER: Had a friend tell me the same thing about New Mexico. Why would you need that many signs in your strongholds? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By TEXASROOTERSBROTHER: Originally Posted By Wobblin-Goblin: Originally Posted By Mr_Nasty99: Even the most diehard liberals I know, don't like Kamala. I don't see any support for her at all. Take a trip up to New England. Harris-Walz signs everywhere, even at households that didn't have Biden signs four years ago. It's mystifying. Had a friend tell me the same thing about New Mexico. Why would you need that many signs in your strongholds? A couple of weeks ago I read somewhere kamaler was spending millions in ads in.... wait for it.... chicago. CHICAGO If things were that rosy for her, why spend those priceless millions in a democrat shithole like chicago? chicago where even the dead vote democrat by the hundreds of thousands every day. Trump. In. A. Landslide. |
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Posted: 10/12/2024 3:04:15 PM EST
[#7]
Originally Posted By John_Wayne777: I find it useful, even if only for myself, to set down a marker to see how effectively I can see events and judge the next steps. A while back I looked at everything going on in the Trump campaign...especially who was running it...and put out there that I thought Trump was trying to make a deal with the deep state in general. They'd dial back on the lawfare and he'd not push serious institutional reform. I vaguely recall that. Originally Posted By John_Wayne777: Well, then a couple of weeks later they fucking shot him in the head. Immediately after Trump completely reorganized his campaign and brought a bunch of OG MAGA types in the top spots, sidelining the GOP insiders who were running things prior. It was a tectonic shift in approach. In other words, the deal that looked possible was definitely off. So here's what I think happens for the campaign: First, we have to understand that the polling is not close to being accurate. Look at the polling from 2016 and 2020 and note that hardly any of the polling was accurate to the final result. Trump out-performed his polls in 2016 and 2020 and it doesn't seem like any many of the pollsters have done any serious reform work to figure that out and make it better. Worse still, if one is going by voter rolls from 2020 there's a lot of unusual crap data in there just because of the nature of that "election"...so it's unlikely they're going to be significantly more accurate now than then. The wild polling swings seen for Kamala are a result of that bad polling, IMO. Their polling got a lot of previously depressed democrats who were suddenly eager to talk to pollsters once Biden was replaced, but that did not portend a significant shift in the country. Where she's sitting at right now in those same polls is most likely nothing more than a more accurate accounting of what her actual support has been from the jump. Polling has always been at it's true best a grab bag. People have always and will always lie on/to polls/pollsters. All the commanding heights of virtually every institution are still pushing to destroy the lives of anyone that supports any real pushback against them. Some have caught on and realized that those in power are going to do that anyways. I suspect people have lost what little confidince they have in pollsters. Internet polls are a joke, you can't even begin to confirm who's doing the poll and if the poll is open and public, it can be spammed with bots. Rich baris has been interesting regarding polls: https://x.com/Peoples_Pundit Originally Posted By John_Wayne777: In tonight's debate if she doesn't drain a fifth of vodka, pass out, and shit herself on stage the media narrative will be that it was a huge success for Kamala. They will settle on a couple of hackneyed platitudes that will be repeated over and over and over again. (She "stood up to Trump", she "found her voice", she "met her moment", blah blah blah) After that you're going to see a push for polls that will show her bumping up 3-5 points. This will be more of the same. Short of something utterly catastrophic taking place, we're not going to see a genuine 10 point swing. The fundamentals are going to decide this election, specifically three core issues: - Economy - Immigration - Safety That's what most people are going to be voting on. You can tell even her campaign knows it because she's talking about lowering prices, helping people buy homes, building the wall, etc. There are other key issues, though, that will play into specific voter groups that will likely ultimately decide the question: - Medical freedom - Free speech - Crypto - Food quality/safety For the first time in my life I am not sure if the voters are going to decide the election, and I'm not talking about electoral college stuff. Sleeping the day of the vote so you can stay up all night and record everything going on may be pretty worthwhile this time. My impression is that in any normal world of the last 40 years this would be a landslide for trump with a few heavy blue idiot outliers; but we are not in normal times. We have been past normal politics since maybe the 2010s. 2020 just amped it up and made it incredibly obvious. Originally Posted By John_Wayne777: These are not core issues, but there are voters who are nearly single issue on all of those and Kamala is going to lose those voters to Trump by large margins. Margins big enough to put her in deep trouble in a number of swing states. These are the people that Robert Kennedy and Nicole Shanahan are aggressively going out and rounding up for Trump. They've decided to go full scorched earth on Kamala and more importantly the system behind Kamala and it's going to be felt in the swing states, especially places like Pa. So the prognostications: 1. PA is probably the key battleground in all of this. It is unlikely, in my view, that the other mid-western swing states are going to wildly vary from PA's results. If Trump takes PA, it's unlikely he will lose Michigan and Wisconsin. He takes at least one of those states as well. 2. I think Trump ultimately does win PA, and with that takes the race. The question will be what the margin is. I expect the margin to be beyond the margin of fraud. 3. A real problem for the Republicans is that those "other key issues" voters that are going to help put Trump over the top are voting for Trump, not necessarily for Republicans. Republican candidates down ballot are under-performing Trump in the polls and have under-performed Trump in actual election results. That being said, ballot splitting is pretty rare in this day and age and that's why Trump's margin is going to matter. If he has enough margin, he has enough coat tails to take candidates like Kerry Lake across the finish line with him. If it's narrow then they probably won't make it. I use Kerry Lake as an example acknowledging that AZ is screwy as shit and hard to pin down. I don't think anyone has a good read on what's going to happen there. But Trump winning PA with more than 3 points probably means he has sufficient coat tails to bring in at least three of the close senate contests home. 4. I don't believe there's any way Trump gets less than 5 points in Ohio. He likely wins Ohio by double digits and now especially with the pet-eating story breaking I think you can say goodbye to Sherrod Brown as senator from Ohio. Concur with you on the "people voting for trump, not the republicans." Republican voters and conservatives in particular are sick and tired of being abused by the party and the politicians in it, who I think know we don't have a choice and they (repubs) count on us being stuck with them, because of how bad the democrats are (the same repubs will BE those democrats in short order). I would not be surprised if the repub voters turn on the republican party the same way they've turned against the mainstream/legacy media. Originally Posted By John_Wayne777: Of course, events can always crop up that change anything. Short of an another event like an assassins' bullet missing the mark I think what you see from the debate until election day is Kamala eroding in the swing states with each bad economic story, each immigration story, and each crime story. The government employed wine moms in big blue areas will be immune to this, but the people who are feeling the impact of these problems plus the constant campaigning and messaging from the RFK-alignment will push the swing states hard in Trump's direction. Trump will again end up with record levels of votes from blacks and hispanics. He will do well among working class zoomer and millenial men, especially. May even surprise us all with how many working class zoomer and millenial women he pulls in, too. You'll know you've hit a point of capitulation when the mainstream starts running stories about how badly Kamala is managing the campaign. That's your clue that the internal numbers they don't publish look really bad for her and they need to make it look like she did it, not the apparatus behind her. This will be strongly encouraged by the remaining Biden loyalists and by Biden himself, all eager to get a "We told you so" out of the deal. Immediately after the election Biden pardons Hunter. I think he likely pardons Trump too, trying to make it look like it's not a naked abuse of power while simultaneously making it so that the various charges against Trump and government actions against him become moot and receive no resolution in court. That serves the interests of the apparatus. My money is where my mouth is over on Predictit. So we'll see if I make some money or get skunked.  If you get skunked we get skunked as a union. |
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Posted: 10/12/2024 3:06:07 PM EST
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By arowneragain: I don't know that losing western NC due to logistics would be enough to swing the state or even the nation, but it sort of has my attention now. I am genuinely grieved that we can't even think about humanitarian aid in purely humanitarian terms, instead of thinking about the political impact of neglecting the red end of a state. But here we are.  Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By arowneragain: Originally Posted By Jetpig: The mountains of NC have a bunch of wonderful red voters. With things as they are, if those people can not or don't vote, it could swing NC to blue. I am pretty sure people in Asheville (HARD BLUE) will be able to all vote no problem. This could be a major issue come election day. I don't know that losing western NC due to logistics would be enough to swing the state or even the nation, but it sort of has my attention now. I am genuinely grieved that we can't even think about humanitarian aid in purely humanitarian terms, instead of thinking about the political impact of neglecting the red end of a state. But here we are. @arowneragain Having to do so was forced on us by those who are balkanizing the union by attempting to replace our cultre and our people groups. They have forced us to consider the political implications of everything. They forced their religion on us. |
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Posted: 10/12/2024 3:06:55 PM EST
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By pale_pony: https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/27704/Joker_jpg-3344678.JPG Would you like some breathing room to prepare? |
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USA
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Posted: 10/12/2024 5:24:58 PM EST
[#10]
@John_Wayne777
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2024/10/12/the-anxious-dems-guide-to-a-coin-toss-election-00183542 The left are on edge and calling it a coin flip election and speculating it may be 2016 all over again. |
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Posted: 10/12/2024 6:29:38 PM EST
[#11]
Anyone know much about the NYT sienna poll. Recent PA polls were going very favorable for Trump, then this pops up. After Harris had a shitty week
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/pennsylvania/trump-vs-harris |
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Posted: 10/12/2024 6:50:26 PM EST
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By bdy83: Anyone know much about the NYT sienna poll. Recent PA polls were going very favorable for Trump, then this pops up. After Harris had a shitty week https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/pennsylvania/trump-vs-harris @bdy83  Attached FileNYT had a 5.1 point average error with 92% of polls favoring democrats in 2020. They also put out a Trump +5 in Arizona, which while might be accurate, is way off everyone else. It just goes to show perhaps a significant amount of error in their methodology. Bottom line I worry much more about the RCP average, along with trends than I do one individual pole. |
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CAN
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Posted: 10/12/2024 7:17:38 PM EST
[#13]
 Democrats Fight for "Print-on-Demand" Ballot Machines after Hurricane Damage |
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Posted: 10/13/2024 7:23:58 AM EST
[#14]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By FlashMan-7k: @arowneragain Having to do so was forced on us by those who are balkanizing the union by attempting to replace our cultre and our people groups. They have forced us to consider the political implications of everything. They forced their religion on us. Oh absolutely. |
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Posted: 10/13/2024 11:50:02 AM EST
[#15]
Going to say this again, even though I don't understand why it's happening: there are more Harris-Walz signs here in my neck of the woods than I've ever seen for any other democrat ticket since, well, perhaps Clinton-Gore. It's weird.
The candidate that none of them wanted four years ago, that got eviscerated on stage vs. other democrat candidates, that was the first to drop out of the race without a single delegate to her name, and then spent the next four years being a laughing hyena joke of a VP...is now their political savior? It makes no sense. |
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Posted: 10/13/2024 11:53:29 AM EST
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Wobblin-Goblin: Going to say this again, even though I don't understand why it's happening: there are more Harris-Walz signs here in my neck of the woods than I've ever seen for any other democrat ticket since, well, perhaps Clinton-Gore. It's weird. The candidate that none of them wanted four years ago, that got eviscerated on stage vs. other democrat candidates, that was the first to drop out of the race without a single delegate to her name, and then spent the next four years being a laughing hyena joke of a VP...is now their political savior? It makes no sense. They just hate Trump that much. Simple when it’s a binary decision. I’ve seen 1 Harris yard sign and one yard sign in the rear view window of a boomers early 2000s F150 truck. But it’s it. |
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Posted: 10/13/2024 12:03:34 PM EST
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Wobblin-Goblin: Going to say this again, even though I don't understand why it's happening: there are more Harris-Walz signs here in my neck of the woods than I've ever seen for any other democrat ticket since, well, perhaps Clinton-Gore. It's weird. The candidate that none of them wanted four years ago, that got eviscerated on stage vs. other democrat candidates, that was the first to drop out of the race without a single delegate to her name, and then spent the next four years being a laughing hyena joke of a VP...is now their political savior? It makes no sense. I didnt live in my current town 4 years ago so cant make any comparisons but I was surprised to see multiple harris signs, but they are paired front to back with allred signs so it might be more a sign of how much my local libs hate Cruz than any sign of actual enthusiasm for Hairy Ballz. I have also noticed every time a left wing sign pops up suddenly the neighbors are putting up Trump and Cruz signs in response. |
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Posted: 10/13/2024 12:06:01 PM EST
[#18]
Signs don't mean squat.
I see tons of Dave Reichert signs in my very liberal town. He will not win this town. |
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Posted: 10/13/2024 12:07:59 PM EST
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 74novaman: I didnt live in my current town 4 years ago so cant make any comparisons but I was surprised to see multiple harris signs, but they are paired front to back with allred signs so it might be more a sign of how much my local libs hate Cruz than any sign of actual enthusiasm for Hairy Ballz. I have also noticed every time a left wing sign pops up suddenly the neighbors are putting up Trump and Cruz signs in response. FWIW, there are wayyyy more Harris signs up than Biden had just four years ago. Sure, this is liberal NE, but even 0bama signs were relatively light during '08 and '12. Not so anymore. They are everywhere. |
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Posted: 10/13/2024 12:14:54 PM EST
[#20]
My prediction is much simpler. It is all about the fraud. Will they have enough or not. That is what will decide it.
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Posted: 10/15/2024 8:07:09 AM EST
[#21]
So I'll use this to illustrate one of the things I think is wrong with the polling. This is a poll of "likely voters". A "likely voter" is generally a registered voter who has a track record of consistently voting. This doesn't mean that they never miss an election, but generally speaking you see them voting in most presidential elections. This is not a poll of registered voters. "Well, dude, lots of registered voters don't vote." ...and that's absolutely true. Except in this cycle what we're seeing is a lot of new registrations, and those new registrations are breaking Republican in every state that has a party affiliation associated with registration. Those people are not getting polled in a "likely voter" poll because they don't show up in the data until this cycle. So what does that mean? If Trump has a lead in likely voters, his lead is likely significantly larger than predicted by the LV stats simply because his milkshake is bringing unlikely voters to the yard. Indeed, that will be the key to his margins. I've posted a lot of data from PA previously, but this is a state-wide phenomenon where registrations have flipped several counties from blue to red in terms of registration numbers. But those people aren't getting polled in LV polls. Overall I'm not seeing any radical shifts this last week. What I am seeing signs of here and there is that the relatively small percentage of people who are truly undecided are starting to decide, and Kamala is bleeding them. At this point I think PA is beyond Kamala's possible reach. She's doing far worse among Catholics than Biden. She's doing worse among blacks overall (including black women!) than Biden. She's losing practically every identifiable group worse than Biden save for the rich wine mom demographic...and they were already voting blue no matter who. So she will turn them out at a high rate, but there aren't enough of them to cover for the bleeding she's doing with everybody else. |
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Posted: 10/15/2024 8:16:40 AM EST
[#22]
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Posted: 10/15/2024 8:21:14 AM EST
[#23]
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Posted: 10/15/2024 8:40:48 AM EST
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By John_Wayne777: Out today from the NYT, of all places: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/12/us/politics/poll-black-voters-harris-trump.html If you don't subscribe to that garbage, this tweet hast the most crucial bits:
Trump doubling...or beyond, even...black support is a massive blow to the urban stranglehold of democrats. If they can't win blacks by a consistent 90% margin they can't retain power almost anywhere. Now when you're seeing this kind of story from the shitrag NYT, consider that it's significantly worse than they say. The alarm bells are going off all over the place for Kameltoe's race. Sadly any shift away from Democrats isn't because blacks have woken up and want to get away from the democrat plantation, it's because they are pissed illegals are getting their freebies. |
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Posted: 10/15/2024 8:44:07 AM EST
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By bad2006z71: Sadly any shift away from Democrats isn't because blacks have woken up and want to get away from the democrat plantation, it's because they are pissed illegals are getting their freebies. That's more of a red pill than you think. |
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Posted: 10/15/2024 9:39:01 AM EST
[#26]
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Posted: 10/15/2024 9:44:05 AM EST
[#27]
I like this thread the best of the GD politics threads. I'd buy OP a beer.
After every election cycle, the pollsters actually do try to improve their sampling. The question is how much they actually did that, or if they did, how close 2024 is to 2020? I think it is still pretty damn close. At this point in 2020, based on the RCP averages in swing states, I thought Trump was likely screwed. Biden was polling above the margin of error. In 2016, I thought Trump had a chance, but it wasn't a certainty, with the RCP averages being in the margin of error. Trump can still lose, it is by no means certain. However, he's got some momentum right now, and I think avoiding another debate is smart. He doesn't have to run a basement campaign, but he's a little more likely to hurt his chances than help them by talking too much, especially in hostile environments. I think the left is fresh out of October surprises involving Trump at this point, or they would have used it last week. I also think that anything that comes out about Harris/Walz is too late to do much damage. The biggest unknown for me is the Iran/Israel stuff. I think it generally helps Trump when they start lobbing missiles back and forth, both from disillusioning Muslims in Michigan, and making some middle of the road voters worry about WW3. So if the Israelis want to roll hard in retaliation in the next week, I think that helps Trump. As of right now, I expect Sherod Brown to squeak out a win in Ohio. RCP has him up in the average by 2.6 (Trump is up 10.7), and he's remarkably popular in OH, where people will happily break for the republican presidential candidate and split their ticket down ballot. I give no credence to yard signs, but I do laugh every time I drive by a yard that has both Trump and Brown signs. |
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Posted: 10/15/2024 10:46:30 AM EST
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By p3590: I think the left is fresh out of October surprises involving Trump at this point, or they would have used it last week. I also think that anything that comes out about Harris/Walz is too late to do much damage. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By p3590: I think the left is fresh out of October surprises involving Trump at this point, or they would have used it last week. I also think that anything that comes out about Harris/Walz is too late to do much damage. I think what we see in the next couple of weeks is the people who are "undecided" moving Trump. Not because they were actually undecided, but because they were already leaning Trump but were looking for Harris to give them a reason not to be. She has utterly failed at that. I see her bleeding those voters consistently with the numbers getting incrementally worse every time someone looks. You'll know the wound is fatal when the media turns on her in unison. The biggest unknown for me is the Iran/Israel stuff. I think it generally helps Trump when they start lobbing missiles back and forth, both from disillusioning Muslims in Michigan, and making some middle of the road voters worry about WW3. So if the Israelis want to roll hard in retaliation in the next week, I think that helps Trump. War and uncertainty does not favor the incumbent...especially one who bragged 13 months ago about how quiet the ME was. As of right now, I expect Sherod Brown to squeak out a win in Ohio. RCP has him up in the average by 2.6 (Trump is up 10.7), and he's remarkably popular in OH, where people will happily break for the republican presidential candidate and split their ticket down ballot. I give no credence to yard signs, but I do laugh every time I drive by a yard that has both Trump and Brown signs. I think that's a tad pessimistic:
Trump is going to carry Ohio by a large margin. Such a large margin that even if you see historic levels of ticket splitting...which I will again point out is extremely unusual in presidential cycles with only Susan Collins being a successful example of it in the last several elections...it's unlikely to be enough for him to win. |
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Posted: 10/15/2024 10:49:47 AM EST
[Last Edit: John_Wayne777]
[#29]
Note again that this is LV, meaning its not capturing the unlikely voters who are going to have an outsized impact on this cycle. |
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Posted: 10/15/2024 11:23:32 AM EST
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By John_Wayne777: I think that's a tad pessimistic:
Trump is going to carry Ohio by a large margin. Such a large margin that even if you see historic levels of ticket splitting...which I will again point out is extremely unusual in presidential cycles with only Susan Collins being a successful example of it in the last several elections...it's unlikely to be enough for him to win. I did go back and look at Brown's previous senate elections and only one was in a presidential cycle (2012). He outperformed Obama by 2.5%. Having thought about his previous elections for a bit, I expect that he's going to out perform Kamala by at least double that, since she's wildly less popular than Obama, but he'll still lose. I.E. Trump wins Ohio by 9%, Moreno wins by 3%. |
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Posted: 10/15/2024 1:27:59 PM EST
[#31]
BDP was one of the most accurate pollsters in the 2016 and 2020 cycle. If that poll is accurate we're now on to the part of asking just how done Kamela's goose is. Results like this in Michigan would indicate "burned to a crisp". |
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Posted: 10/16/2024 7:00:55 AM EST
[#32]
Marquette national:
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Posted: 10/16/2024 9:57:46 AM EST
[#33]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By mooreshawnm: Negative. We have Vance, Desantis, Tulsi and Vivek to take the banner and push the movement. It will only grow in power if not destroyed by force. |
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Posted: 10/16/2024 10:11:55 AM EST
[#34]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By John_Wayne777: Marquette national:
I've watched the Rassmussen You tube channel a bit over the months. I figured he was full of shit talking about how wrong the polling is and how closer to the election all the polls would shift Trump simply because of their bias. Looks like maybe he was right. |
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Posted: 10/16/2024 11:00:22 AM EST
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By anesvick: This. I think it will get better, because they are all more moderated and articulate than Trump, and they don't have the baggage. Vance is going to be giving Dems nightmares for many years to come. Those folks all have great talents. But people underestimate Trump's strengths. Articulate is fine, but articulate doesn't always translate into connecting with voters the way Trump does. He connects with people extremely well in general. The Kennedy coup is an example of just how skilled Trump is with people. He connects with voters better than anyone we've seen since Reagan. There's a lot there other folks can learn from. |
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Posted: 10/16/2024 12:24:09 PM EST
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By John_Wayne777: Those folks all have great talents. But people underestimate Trump's strengths. Articulate is fine, but articulate doesn't always translate into connecting with voters the way Trump does. He connects with people extremely well in general. The Kennedy coup is an example of just how skilled Trump is with people. He connects with voters better than anyone we've seen since Reagan. There's a lot there other folks can learn from. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By John_Wayne777: Originally Posted By anesvick: This. I think it will get better, because they are all more moderated and articulate than Trump, and they don't have the baggage. Vance is going to be giving Dems nightmares for many years to come. Those folks all have great talents. But people underestimate Trump's strengths. Articulate is fine, but articulate doesn't always translate into connecting with voters the way Trump does. He connects with people extremely well in general. The Kennedy coup is an example of just how skilled Trump is with people. He connects with voters better than anyone we've seen since Reagan. There's a lot there other folks can learn from. I hate him as much as the next guy, but I believe Obama was one of the best at connecting with the people. No politician has ever come across as a cool guy that people would like to hang out with, as much as Obama did back then. |
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Posted: 10/16/2024 12:55:15 PM EST
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Mr_Nasty99: I hate him as much as the next guy, but I believe Obama was one of the best at connecting with the people. No politician has ever come across as a cool guy that people would like to hang out with, as much as Obama did back then. Obama isn't good at connecting with people. You can see that in his rather pathetic appearances in Pittsburg to try and rally the black vote. In his era, Obama rode a wave of media adoration that is unparalleled in our lifetime. He was receiving the media equivalent of a blowjob to completion every single time a press outlet sent out a single electron of coverage. This was the era of media pundits getting "tingles" when the man talked...or so they told us. But when you saw Obama one on one, he wasn't very good at it. He needed the big produced show and the teleprompter to put on the look. Obama benefitted from being the first realistic contender that happened to be black. He was a walking orgasm for progressives. The bloom is off that rose and what's left is nowhere near as effective. Trump...well...he's been pretty much the same for decades. |
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Posted: 10/16/2024 1:02:19 PM EST
[#38]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By John_Wayne777: Obama isn't good at connecting with people. You can see that in his rather pathetic appearances in Pittsburg to try and rally the black vote. In his era, Obama rode a wave of media adoration that is unparalleled in our lifetime. He was receiving the media equivalent of a blowjob to completion every single time a press outlet sent out a single electron of coverage. This was the era of media pundits getting "tingles" when the man talked...or so they told us. But when you saw Obama one on one, he wasn't very good at it. He needed the big produced show and the teleprompter to put on the look. Obama benefitted from being the first realistic contender that happened to be black. He was a walking orgasm for progressives. The bloom is off that rose and what's left is nowhere near as effective. Trump...well...he's been pretty much the same for decades. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By John_Wayne777: Originally Posted By Mr_Nasty99: I hate him as much as the next guy, but I believe Obama was one of the best at connecting with the people. No politician has ever come across as a cool guy that people would like to hang out with, as much as Obama did back then. Obama isn't good at connecting with people. You can see that in his rather pathetic appearances in Pittsburg to try and rally the black vote. In his era, Obama rode a wave of media adoration that is unparalleled in our lifetime. He was receiving the media equivalent of a blowjob to completion every single time a press outlet sent out a single electron of coverage. This was the era of media pundits getting "tingles" when the man talked...or so they told us. But when you saw Obama one on one, he wasn't very good at it. He needed the big produced show and the teleprompter to put on the look. Obama benefitted from being the first realistic contender that happened to be black. He was a walking orgasm for progressives. The bloom is off that rose and what's left is nowhere near as effective. Trump...well...he's been pretty much the same for decades. Yeah it was a bit of a perfect storm for Obama. 8 years of terrible foreign policy. The anger over 9/11 that was willing to whitewash Iraq/Afghanistan was starting to wear off. People were seeing those conflicts for what they were, giant boondoggles that were a waste of American lives and resources. Then you had the 08 crash. The whole, “it’s the economy stupid” really is true. Combine that with let’s be honest, a well spoken young black guy, against the epitome of RINO establishment, and you see what we got. |
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Posted: 10/16/2024 1:18:32 PM EST
[#39]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GaryM: My prediction is much simpler. It is all about the fraud. Will they have enough or not. That is what will decide it. The DNC has hundreds of lawyers in PA, and thousands nationwide, who are ready to contest election outcomes in swing Sates. They will litigate Kumswallow into the Oval Office. Like Bush/Gore, we won't know who won until a month or longer after election day. |
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Posted: 10/16/2024 1:23:08 PM EST
[#40]
Again, BDP got PA mostly right during 2016 and 2020. |
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Posted: 10/16/2024 1:24:26 PM EST
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BikerNut: The DNC has hundreds of lawyers in PA, and thousands nationwide, who are ready to contest election outcomes in swing Sates. They will litigate Kumswallow into the Oval Office. Like Bush/Gore, we won't know who won until a month or longer after election day. Bush/Gore was a close election and it came down to a recount in Florida. I see no signs that this election will be close enough to allow the kind of uncertainty seen in that election, or for the fraud effort mobilized in 2020 to "win" that close contest. |
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Posted: 10/17/2024 12:38:43 PM EST
[#42]
Your predictions make sense, OP, and I hope they come to fruition. A wildcard for me until Trump is sitting back in the Oval Office will always be to see what low these leftist scumbags will go to try and block that from happening.
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Posted: 10/17/2024 8:20:06 PM EST
[#43]
I think PA is lost to her. She's pulled resources out of Michigan to try and make up ground there, but I don't think it will achieve anything. I thought initially Trump would win PA and one of the Wisconsin/Michigan duo. It's now looking more like he's going to win all three. |
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Posted: 10/17/2024 8:25:18 PM EST
[#44]
I hope I am wrong but I still think Nevada unions and Arizona dem strongholds will ballot harvest over to Harris.
Again I hope I'm wrong... |
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Posted: 10/17/2024 8:33:29 PM EST
[#45]
Virginia:
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Posted: 10/17/2024 8:41:01 PM EST
[#46]
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Posted: 10/17/2024 8:42:36 PM EST
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ZF-1: I hope I am wrong but I still think Nevada unions and Arizona dem strongholds will ballot harvest over to Harris. Again I hope I'm wrong... If he holds GA/NC which I think he will, then as long as he wins PA the rest doesn't matter. He can lose AZ/NV and still win. Doesn't even need WI/MI at that point either. I kinda think though he wins AZ, but loses NV |
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Posted: 10/17/2024 8:51:09 PM EST
[#48]
More VA info. Early voting in heavily Trump areas unlike anything seen in the past. |
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Posted: 10/17/2024 10:04:45 PM EST
[#49]
Just a reminder: we need to go all the way to the wire PLUS three days of all out effort in EVERY state, make sure that the margin is SO BIG that eventually the bluest and most corrupt judges and SecStates have to step up and say "ok, enough mystery boxes of ballots and recounts, it's over".
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Posted: 10/17/2024 10:18:56 PM EST
[#50]
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