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Posted: 12/18/2023 3:02:36 PM EST
Nate Silver's latest post on his substack. Many of our less intellectually gifted posters will likely just drive by with the 2020 meme photo, but seeing the typical 538-fan demographic go apoplectic whenever he tweets something to the right of Mao (fairly common) is fun. Don't discount him entirely. Anyway, this is also a Trump thread so may as well mark "Troll" and get it over with.

Nikki Haley could be the new John McCain
Like McCain in 2000, she could win New Hampshire and boost her profile. But it's going to be very hard for her to win the GOP nomination.

Sorry, but there’s little that’s changed since September, when I wrote that Joe Biden and Donald Trump were the highly likely nominees. That’s not exactly an unconventional take, I know, although I would note that Trump has “only” an 83 percent chance of being the Republican nominee at prediction markets, and Biden has only about a 72 percent chance. Both those figures seem low. Maybe Joe Biden should step aside — I’ve written about that a lot. But that’s not a prediction of what he will do — he’s running again, and nobody more prominent than Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips is challenging him.

Meanwhile, the national Republican race isn’t remotely competitive, and it hasn’t really been since this spring since Ron DeSantis began to flop. Trump leads his nearest rivals nationally, DeSantis and Nikki Haley, by around 50 points (!), and has more than 60 percent of Republican voters listing him as their first choice:
View Quote

You could argue that Nikki Haley is on a McCain-in-2000-like trajectory. Whereas Trump has actually been expanding his lead lately in Iowa, New Hampshire is closer, with a YouGov poll this weekend showing Haley at 29 percent to 44 percent for Trump. Other polls don’t show as tight of a race, but there haven’t actually been any other high-quality non-partisan polls in New Hampshire in the past several weeks.

It’s not impossible to imagine Haley winning New Hampshire. Chris Christie has 10 percent of the vote in the YouGov poll, and if he were to pledge his support to Haley, that might make things a little closer. And the polls are notoriously swingy in New Hampshire. The problem is, it’s not clear where Haley would go from there. As Bill Scher points out, around half the Republican primary voters in the YouGov poll support abortion rights, a consequence of the fact that i) New Hampshire Republicans an unusual bunch, more secular and libertarian than Republicans in the rest of the country and ii) independent voters in New Hampshire can vote in the presidential primary of their choosing and many of them will vote in the GOP race without Joe Biden on the Democratic ballot there.
View Quote


TL;DR
There are also some contingencies that are hard to model — like Trump’s legal risks, though it’s not clear how much those would hurt him in a primary. Plus, there are actuarial risks because of Trump’s advanced age. If you gave me a few bucks to wager on a long-shot, I’d bet them on Haley before DeSantis. But I’ve exhausted the amount of ass-covering that I’m willing to do. We’ve reached the point where the nominee being someone other than Trump would be perhaps the most surprising development in the history of the presidential primaries.
View Quote
Link Posted: 12/18/2023 3:04:09 PM EST
[#1]
I thought this ass-clown was the new McCain.  She's definitely cut from the same cloth.

Link Posted: 12/18/2023 3:04:19 PM EST
[#2]
Yay...another swamp creature running for office. She is about as big of a War Hawk as they get.
Link Posted: 12/18/2023 3:04:35 PM EST
[#3]
No, she has to fight the champ Crenshaw for that title.
Link Posted: 12/18/2023 3:07:10 PM EST
[#4]
I'm 53.  I can't see myself ever voting for a female presidential candidate.
Link Posted: 12/18/2023 3:12:09 PM EST
[#5]
I knew the title would get responses easily. Perhaps someone will even read the article and comment on it.

Shit, now I understand why texashomeserver bumps his news threads a couple minutes after the OP.
Link Posted: 12/18/2023 3:14:10 PM EST
[#6]
Could be?
Link Posted: 12/18/2023 3:19:21 PM EST
[#7]
The only thing Nikki Haley will be is on the sidelines watching.
Link Posted: 12/18/2023 3:22:11 PM EST
[#8]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
The only thing Nikki Haley will be is on the sidelines watching.
View Quote

Along the sidelines with Ron.
Link Posted: 12/18/2023 3:23:49 PM EST
[#9]
“Like McCain in 2000, she could win New Hampshire and boost her profile. But it's going to be very hard for her to win the GOP nomination.”

Quote from the article. My quote: It will be the only state she carries. If she’s the Republican nominee, I’m leaving the party.
Link Posted: 12/18/2023 3:24:47 PM EST
[#10]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
The only thing Nikki Haley will be is on the sidelines watching.
View Quote


Remove Don from the Ballot and all bets are off.
Link Posted: 12/18/2023 3:25:27 PM EST
[#11]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
I thought this ass-clown was the new McCain.  She's definitely cut from the same cloth.

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/70083/how_dan_crenshaw_reads_the_bill_of_right-2228330.jpg
View Quote

Attachment Attached File
Link Posted: 12/18/2023 3:26:40 PM EST
[#12]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
“Like McCain in 2000, she could win New Hampshire and boost her profile. But it's going to be very hard for her to win the GOP nomination.”
Quote from the article. My quote: It will be the only state she carries. If she’s the Republican nominee, I’m leaving the party.
View Quote
Her sudden prominence seems incredibly artificial to me, but I'm Team DeSantis in the middle of Florida so I recognize my biases/bubble. I can't fathom her actually getting the nomination (and it seems neither can Nate).
Link Posted: 12/18/2023 3:27:37 PM EST
[#13]
She keeps spamming me

Hey can we count on your support? NIKKI IS SURGING!

lol no
Link Posted: 12/18/2023 3:30:55 PM EST
[#14]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:Remove Don from the Ballot and all bets are off.
View Quote
On this we agree.
Link Posted: 12/18/2023 3:32:39 PM EST
[#15]
There is no excitement on a national scale for her. Gonna be an interesting election year.
Link Posted: 12/18/2023 3:36:50 PM EST
[#16]
Nikki Haley served on the board at Boeing after her tenure as a UN Ambassador, granted she was on the board for less than a full year, but why do you think she was on that board in the first place?   Not for her great business acumen.

Yeah, she's in the pocket of the military industrial complex. Another cult worshipper of Khorne (Warhammer 40K geeks will get that reference).  Another politician that turns their "public service" into vast personal wealth.

Be wary of those "public servants" that enter office as members of the middle class and leave as part of the 1%.    

Link Posted: 12/18/2023 3:38:08 PM EST
[#17]
I call her McCain in high heels. She reeks of swamp. She would love to be a 'maverick' and reach across the aisle an work with Dems to get the job done.
Link Posted: 12/18/2023 3:43:22 PM EST
[#18]
A vote for Nikki isxa vote for China.
Link Posted: 12/18/2023 3:51:06 PM EST
[#19]
But but but She’s “SURGING” ahead.
Link Posted: 12/18/2023 3:51:47 PM EST
[#20]
Nikki Haley could be is the new John McCain

Fixed it for ya.
Link Posted: 12/18/2023 3:54:16 PM EST
[#21]
Quoted:
Nate Silver's latest post on his substack. Many of our less intellectually gifted posters will likely just drive by with the 2020 meme photo, but seeing the typical 538-fan demographic go apoplectic whenever he tweets something to the right of Mao (fairly common) is fun. Don't discount him entirely. Anyway, this is also a Trump thread so may as well mark "Troll" and get it over with.

Nikki Haley could be the new John McCain
Like McCain in 2000, she could win New Hampshire and boost her profile. But it's going to be very hard for her to win the GOP nomination.

Sorry, but there’s little that’s changed since September, when I wrote that Joe Biden and Donald Trump were the highly likely nominees. That’s not exactly an unconventional take, I know, although I would note that Trump has “only” an 83 percent chance of being the Republican nominee at prediction markets, and Biden has only about a 72 percent chance. Both those figures seem low. Maybe Joe Biden should step aside — I’ve written about that a lot. But that’s not a prediction of what he will do — he’s running again, and nobody more prominent than Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips is challenging him.

Meanwhile, the national Republican race isn’t remotely competitive, and it hasn’t really been since this spring since Ron DeSantis began to flop. Trump leads his nearest rivals nationally, DeSantis and Nikki Haley, by around 50 points (!), and has more than 60 percent of Republican voters listing him as their first choice:
View Quote

You could argue that Nikki Haley is on a McCain-in-2000-like trajectory. Whereas Trump has actually been expanding his lead lately in Iowa, New Hampshire is closer, with a YouGov poll this weekend showing Haley at 29 percent to 44 percent for Trump. Other polls don’t show as tight of a race, but there haven’t actually been any other high-quality non-partisan polls in New Hampshire in the past several weeks.

It’s not impossible to imagine Haley winning New Hampshire. Chris Christie has 10 percent of the vote in the YouGov poll, and if he were to pledge his support to Haley, that might make things a little closer. And the polls are notoriously swingy in New Hampshire. The problem is, it’s not clear where Haley would go from there. As Bill Scher points out, around half the Republican primary voters in the YouGov poll support abortion rights, a consequence of the fact that i) New Hampshire Republicans an unusual bunch, more secular and libertarian than Republicans in the rest of the country and ii) independent voters in New Hampshire can vote in the presidential primary of their choosing and many of them will vote in the GOP race without Joe Biden on the Democratic ballot there.
View Quote


TL;DR
There are also some contingencies that are hard to model — like Trump’s legal risks, though it’s not clear how much those would hurt him in a primary. Plus, there are actuarial risks because of Trump’s advanced age. If you gave me a few bucks to wager on a long-shot, I’d bet them on Haley before DeSantis. But I’ve exhausted the amount of ass-covering that I’m willing to do. We’ve reached the point where the nominee being someone other than Trump would be perhaps the most surprising development in the history of the presidential primaries.
View Quote
View Quote


Nikki “I am gonna give the dems the chance to undermine Southern Heritage and History because of the Charleston shooting because I’m a fake Southern” Haley? Nah, we’re good.
Link Posted: 12/18/2023 3:59:03 PM EST
[#22]
What? I was told T$ already won everything already.
Who cares about the 1st loser...

Or are you suggesting T$ might not win?
Link Posted: 12/18/2023 4:09:10 PM EST
[#23]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
What? I was told T$ already won everything already.
Who cares about the 1st loser...

Or are you suggesting T$ might not win?
View Quote
Read the TL;DR again.
Link Posted: 12/18/2023 4:20:12 PM EST
[#24]
I thought Liz Cheney was the new Benedict Arn... errr John McCain?
Link Posted: 12/18/2023 4:22:38 PM EST
[#25]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Yay...another swamp creature running for office. She is about as big of a War Hawk as they get.
View Quote



Yeah, and her foreign policy experience is telling the UN what Trump thought
Link Posted: 12/18/2023 4:33:57 PM EST
[#26]
Nikki Haley is a deepstate agent.  She is also a history destroyer.  Under no circumstances would I vote for her.
Link Posted: 12/18/2023 4:44:32 PM EST
[#27]
I wouldn't vote for her just due to her recent opinions on tranny kids and social media regulation.

To be a true McCain, I would like to see who her aids are  - recall that one former McCain aid is on the view (though also one of Trumps, I have to admit) and one is an msnbc nutbag
Link Posted: 12/18/2023 4:45:16 PM EST
[#28]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
I thought this ass-clown was the new McCain.  She's definitely cut from the same cloth.

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/70083/how_dan_crenshaw_reads_the_bill_of_right-2228330.jpg
View Quote

Came to post that I thought Crenshaw had the new title, but she could take it if she snuck up from the right.
Link Posted: 12/18/2023 4:45:31 PM EST
[#29]
Nikki Haley is too ugly to be President.  

Link Posted: 12/18/2023 4:50:48 PM EST
[#30]
The real problem with the coming primary is the apparant lack of a real Democrat primary, that frees up those that would normally vote in a contested dem primary to meet the qualifications to vote in the GOP primary in order to boost a Trump spoiler...

The usual suspects will say they'd vote to boost the "easily beatable" Trump but I disagree.

If we see a 2024 race with no Trump on the ticket I see RFKjr getting a solid boost and the I don't think either parties leadership wants to see that
Link Posted: 12/18/2023 5:02:51 PM EST
[#31]
I’ll never vote for a female president, women are to wishy washy and driven on emotions.  

Can you imagine the drama one would  have.

No thanks.
Link Posted: 12/18/2023 5:14:15 PM EST
[#32]
A treasonous corrupt fuck so malevolent that you root for cancer to take their ass off the stage and yet manages to still keep corruption going after they're dead and buried through their corrupt shitwit friends?

Yeah.

I can see that.
Link Posted: 12/18/2023 5:16:54 PM EST
[#33]
Could be?
Link Posted: 12/19/2023 5:41:41 PM EST
[#34]
Bump, since there's plenty of DeSantis / Haley threads tonight.
Link Posted: 12/19/2023 5:42:32 PM EST
[#35]
McRomney Graham!
Link Posted: 12/19/2023 5:49:12 PM EST
[#36]
If she ever got the job of POTUS we would be in WW3 before the ink dried on the swear in papers.
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