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Posted: 3/28/2022 12:07:55 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By rca2222: I'm not saying that Ukraine "should have" given Russia anything, and I stated that clearly in the original post. What I am saying is that Russia would probably not have invaded had their been concessions, such as Crimea and parts of the Donbas region. Those places will never be reunited with Ukraine, and in Crimea it would seem that the locals don't want to be. It isn't fair, or just, but it's the reality. Those disputed borders are also what prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By rca2222: Originally Posted By lorazepam: Originally Posted By rca2222: If it was nonsense, then why does Russia seem to be signaling those very goals now? I don't disagree that Putin would have loved to take over Ukraine or make it a vassal state, but it was clear long before the tanks rolled that it wasn't going to happen. He knew what he was up against as soon as the international reaction materialized. If he was given a way out then he would have taken it, in my opinion. Your location doesn't make your opinions universally unimpeachable. You would be well served by a bit of humility. What way out should he be given? Sovereign territory of another nation as a reward for attacking them and then leaving? Fuck me. I'm not saying that Ukraine "should have" given Russia anything, and I stated that clearly in the original post. What I am saying is that Russia would probably not have invaded had their been concessions, such as Crimea and parts of the Donbas region. Those places will never be reunited with Ukraine, and in Crimea it would seem that the locals don't want to be. It isn't fair, or just, but it's the reality. Those disputed borders are also what prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. Wrong. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 12:08:26 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By rca2222: I'm not saying that Ukraine "should have" given Russia anything, and I stated that clearly in the original post. What I am saying is that Russia would probably not have invaded had their been concessions, such as Crimea and parts of the Donbas region. Those places will never be reunited with Ukraine, and in Crimea it would seem that the locals don't want to be. It isn't fair, or just, but it's the reality. Those disputed borders are also what prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By rca2222: Originally Posted By lorazepam: Originally Posted By rca2222: If it was nonsense, then why does Russia seem to be signaling those very goals now? I don't disagree that Putin would have loved to take over Ukraine or make it a vassal state, but it was clear long before the tanks rolled that it wasn't going to happen. He knew what he was up against as soon as the international reaction materialized. If he was given a way out then he would have taken it, in my opinion. Your location doesn't make your opinions universally unimpeachable. You would be well served by a bit of humility. What way out should he be given? Sovereign territory of another nation as a reward for attacking them and then leaving? Fuck me. I'm not saying that Ukraine "should have" given Russia anything, and I stated that clearly in the original post. What I am saying is that Russia would probably not have invaded had their been concessions, such as Crimea and parts of the Donbas region. Those places will never be reunited with Ukraine, and in Crimea it would seem that the locals don't want to be. It isn't fair, or just, but it's the reality. Those disputed borders are also what prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. "Disputed borders" is an interesting way of describing a previous Russian invasion. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 12:08:44 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BerettaGuy: Wrong. |
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USA
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Posted: 3/28/2022 12:09:27 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Cobradriver: I've driven stick cars all my life. I'm pretty sure I could find a way to go from 5th to 2nd and scatter the trans all over the road. Like most, I took his comment as your typical dry sense of military humor... Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Cobradriver: Originally Posted By CenterMass762: Originally Posted By rca2222: Originally Posted By RattleCanAR: Originally Posted By RUM: Originally Posted By Chokey:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FO65fpjX0Acbb3u?format=jpg&name=small Is he complaining about not getting something tailored to him in a war zone? He is joking about the challenges as an American and RHD. Nothing more to it. This. RHD and stick is a little awkward at first. I kept knocking my knuckles on the driver's door when I intended to shift the first time I drove one like that. Combined with all of the roundabouts much hilarity ensued. If I was in that guy's position, we'd all die. There's no way I'd be able to operate that vehicle proficiently enough to keep up from being killed by the Russians.  I've driven stick cars all my life. I'm pretty sure I could find a way to go from 5th to 2nd and scatter the trans all over the road. Like most, I took his comment as your typical dry sense of military humor... I took it as humor as well. Obviously, his situation is a bit more stressful, but I used an RHD car with a manual transmission at a driving school. It was really NBD, but I was driving an MT every day at that point. The shift pattern and pedal layout pedal layout are the same. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 12:12:53 PM EDT
[#5]
Russian moves in Ukraine seem bafflingly short-sighted
How could the Russians--Putin in particular--fail to calculate the inevitable downstream implications of their actions? It makes no sense--almost--unless something is missing from the analysis. Here is an intelligence analyst who asserts that Russia (for some reason) is fighting in Ukraine with its fingers, and not a fist. He seems to be fluent with Russian military capabilities and inventories, most especially their nuclear weapons, which is his area of expertise. I can't vouch for his analysis--but he seems to know what he is talking about, and his credentials seem strong. ARFCOM has assured me that EMP is a non-issue, but he seems to be perfectly familiar with the technical specs for military-grade EMP hardening, and asserts that it is not good enough to prevent incapacitation by Russian EMP weapons. But perhaps ARFCOM knows better? Lastly, he cites cultural inadequacies in the way the West perceives the world so as to leave it blind to the Russian pragmatic world view's intentions. Anyway--it is food for thought. Hopefully he is completely wrong. If not, we'll probably know in the next couple weeks. The Nuclear 9/11 In Our Future... Hour-long Interview:  How Russia Might Win WW3: Peter Vincent Pry |
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JPN
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Posted: 3/28/2022 12:13:22 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BigGrumpyBear: Actually you're both right. The unofficial announcement is several days old I remember reading about it. And I remember reading Germany saying it was a breach of contract. This, the official announcement, is today. Now, y'all shake on it and play nice. Don't make me come in here again!  Delivery and payment options are the key factors for European politicians now. It is open source how many days or weeks each country has in reserves. The big Russian squeeze is about to start. There is no way Russian gas can be replaced within 30 days, but the supplies will stop on the 31st unless these countries break the sanctions. Global energy chess games are part of our timeline. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 12:14:01 PM EDT
[#7]
For those still following the main theme of the thread, this is a site with daily SITREPS that seem to be squared away:
Understanding war. |
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NV, USA
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Posted: 3/28/2022 12:14:14 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By rca2222: Your three points are the exact ones I made before the invasion, though I added the restoration of water flow through the Crimean canal. I'm convinced that if they had been offered before that he wouldn't have invaded. That is NOT to say that I think he should get those things, or that Ukraine should agree to such demands. Sanctions are going to be a political problem for the west regardless. If Russian wells, pipelines, and refineries are permanently damaged (see Zeihan), the oil shock will be politically untenable. If images of starving people hit the news because Russian grain isn't arriving, yet another politically untenable situation will develop. Like it or not, Russia is an important world supplier of both commodities. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By rca2222: Originally Posted By spydercomonkey: Originally Posted By Eight_Ring: Originally Posted By _disconnector_: Originally Posted By spydercomonkey: Originally Posted By Birddog15: Originally Posted By spydercomonkey: Amazing clip:
And overall great (37 post) thread on how sanctions will begin the unraveling of Russia:
If that first clip is from a pro Putin talk show, then I guess what he is saying is that it must either be total victory over Ukraine, or the end of Russia. Am I understanding that correctly? He's saying essentially that if "The Great Power known as Russia" TM can't subdue little Ukraine, then the mythos of Russian Power/ Greatness will be shattered irrevocably, and they will be on their way as a worthless power and heading toward the dustbin of history. Basically he's saying if they can't take Ukraine, any future threat against NATO or the US will seem utterly absurd. And it was their ability to threaten NATO/US that have Russia its Gravitas and domestic legitimacy for the last 70+ years. The perception of power *is* power . . . and the world's perception of Russia is that they couldn't knock over a lemonade stand run by a troop of girl scouts at this point. If they don't win definitively - total surrender without conditions - then they lose. Period. They are setting the stage for escalation. What other choice do they have? Serious question. Plenty; the best case is not escalation but just keep doing what they are doing until they can negotiate a 80/20 solution: 1. Crimea recognized as Russian territory 2. Ukraine commits to not join NATO or host offensive weapons (ABM, SRBM, Cruise, etc) 3. Donbass becomes 'autonomous' buffer state* (this the least important of the 2) Achieving 1+2 would actually be a substantial victory, especially if forecast out 40-50 years. Assuming of course that the west removes sanctions if Ukraine asks them too as part of the peace deal. Thats my biggest fear - Ukraine strikes a peace deal with Russia...and then the US/West says 'fuck that' and keeps the sanctions going, prompting Russia to continue the war. Thats when escalation is going to happen. Your three points are the exact ones I made before the invasion, though I added the restoration of water flow through the Crimean canal. I'm convinced that if they had been offered before that he wouldn't have invaded. That is NOT to say that I think he should get those things, or that Ukraine should agree to such demands. Sanctions are going to be a political problem for the west regardless. If Russian wells, pipelines, and refineries are permanently damaged (see Zeihan), the oil shock will be politically untenable. If images of starving people hit the news because Russian grain isn't arriving, yet another politically untenable situation will develop. Like it or not, Russia is an important world supplier of both commodities. Thats basically my take on things too. My gut instinct of how Putins plans shifted: Putin Plan A: "My build up of menacing forces on the border to ratchet up tensions will compel a weak and divided west / ukraine to go for quick negotiation to solve the Ukrainian nato / crimea problem once and for all. No one wants to play poker with the Vladster" Putin Plan B: "In unlikely case this doesn't work, lightning war of regime change. Glorious Red Army TM will sweep like through Ukrainian Nazis and race traitors like a scythe through so much wheat, and funnyman puppet zelenski will flee to europe. The war will be over before the West can respond, and the new Totally Legit pro-Russian ruler of Ukraine will strike a lasting peace." Putin Plan C: "Fuck fuck fuck, thats a lot of ATGMs. And most of the last decades military money has been stollen by totally not me.... time to channel my idol, the OG Man of Steel himself, and just send everything I have into the meat grinder in hopes of smashing the Ukrainians teeth with our bones, then overwhelm them with our Orc hordes and mass MLRS dakka." Putin Plan D: "Fuck, these Ukrainians can endure more suffering than a Dostoevsky novel, and my economy is imploding because the only thing we produce domestically is oil and razor blades. Lets double down on smashing their cites and hope they come to the negotiating table, and if not we'll snag what territory we can by May 9th then declare victory." I think one of the main reasons this war is so insane and poorly executed is that Putin did not expect Plan A to fail, and certainly did not then expect Plan B to fail as well. And so the war has been less a carefully planned lethal ballet, and more a slap dash improvisation on the ground...using a military command structure not suited to improvisation. |
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USA
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Posted: 3/28/2022 12:18:33 PM EDT
[#9]
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USA
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Posted: 3/28/2022 12:18:48 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By michigan66: For those still following the main theme of the thread, this is a site with daily SITREPS that seem to be squared away: Understanding war. Mar 27, 2022 - Press ISW Russian forces have not abandoned efforts to reconstitute forces northwest of Kyiv to resume major offensive operations, and the commander of Russia’s Eastern Military District (EMD) may be personally commanding the operations. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russia’s 35th Combined Arms Army is rotating damaged units into Belarus and that Russian forces established a command post for all EMD forces operating around Kyiv in the Chernobyl area. Ongoing Russian efforts to replace combat losses in EMD units and deploy additional reinforcements forward are unlikely to enable Russia to successfully resume major operations around Kyiv in the near future. The increasingly static nature of the fighting around Kyiv reflects the incapacity of Russian forces rather than any shift in Russian objectives or efforts at this time. The Russians are taking heavy losses when on the offensive. When the pulled back they probably mined the shit out of everything to keep any Ukranian offensive at bay. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 12:18:59 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By outofbattery: This is beyond idiotic. It absolutely isn't. COVID didn't play out, so now they are grabbing onto an admittedly serious issue in your part of the world. But make no mistake, if everything was going well, and they needed no distractions/rallying points, this would be as forgotten as the invasion of Georgia, the leveling of Grozny, or the Ukraine issues of 2014. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 12:20:07 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By PurpleOtter: About 100 pages back there is a post laying out the engineering details that could lead someone to believe that up to 60% of Russia's current warhead arsenal are effectively duds. It was detailed, plausible, well written and based on sound thinking. This was before the current round of sections was imposed. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By PurpleOtter: Originally Posted By AlabamaFan64: I'm curious about how quickly the sanctions could start affecting Russia's nuclear arsenal. I know it's expensive to maintain these weapons, but how long before they degrade to the point of not being viable. I assume the Russians likely have kept funding up for these weapons, but at some point they should have priorities where they have to use the money elsewhere. I read that post. It was very interesting. What I’m wondering now is how long can they keep that 60% operational. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 12:20:32 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spydercomonkey: Putin Plan D: "Fuck, these Ukrainians can endure more suffering than a Dostoevsky novel 
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USA
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Posted: 3/28/2022 12:20:40 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By R0N: As someone who just left DoD in a compability development role, his statement is actually somewhat accurate. The Russians were a major planning factor for two of the services way ahead and, and the current conflict has shown those investments probably were not well spent. We should have been investing in factories to make things like javelins and stingers at as fast rate. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 12:23:03 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Zam18th: Are you really going to tell us that the US made Russia remain an enemy just so that we'd have a theoretical war to plan for? In a word? Yes. Ike was right about the Military-Industrial complex. Doesn't mean Russia/USSR was never a threat, but plenty of folks made their fortunes "fighting" them. |
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JPN
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Posted: 3/28/2022 12:23:51 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By HIPPO:
Bellingcat? It's the equivalent of quoting RT, or CNN. |
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USA
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Posted: 3/28/2022 12:24:24 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BerettaGuy: Just like I've said here for months. The only reason for the invasion is that Putin wants all of Ukraine. If he would ever agree to anything, it would be to buy time for another major attack and new plans to subvert the Ukrainian government. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BerettaGuy: Originally Posted By HIPPO:
Just like I've said here for months. The only reason for the invasion is that Putin wants all of Ukraine. If he would ever agree to anything, it would be to buy time for another major attack and new plans to subvert the Ukrainian government. At the height of the Soviet Union there were 750k troops in Ukraine. Not sure how under 200k could possibly occupy it. Maybe Putin did believe that the Ukrainans wouldn't fight and welcome them? |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 12:26:42 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By JamesP81: Your view of what is possible is fantasy. You can’t have a capitalist, free society in a place where most people are either profoundly immoral, or have no objection to their neighbors and leaders being profoundly immoral. Until Russia as a culture makes some changes, they can’t be a free, capitalist society any more than Afghanistan could. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By JamesP81: Originally Posted By spydercomonkey: Russia would have been de-communized had we undertaken a Marshall Plan 2.0, and systematically changed their economy and political system from a commie command economy into a democratic capitalist society. Thats the whole point. Instead we just let them collapse, did nothing to really re-integrate them or rebuild them in our image, and allowed it to turn into a mafia state run by a mix of oligarchs and fsb operatives. At which point we then spent years kicking sand in their faces, treating them like a has been bitch, and then acted surprised when the old enmities returned. It was tremendously short sighted policy. Your view of what is possible is fantasy. You can’t have a capitalist, free society in a place where most people are either profoundly immoral, or have no objection to their neighbors and leaders being profoundly immoral. Until Russia as a culture makes some changes, they can’t be a free, capitalist society any more than Afghanistan could. Agree. Pig's ear, silk purse. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 12:28:10 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Ryan_Scott: Russia wanted all of Ukraine. Not part. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Ryan_Scott: Originally Posted By rca2222: I'm not saying that Ukraine "should have" given Russia anything, and I stated that clearly in the original post. What I am saying is that Russia would probably not have invaded had their been concessions, such as Crimea and parts of the Donbas region. Those places will never be reunited with Ukraine, and in Crimea it would seem that the locals don't want to be. It isn't fair, or just, but it's the reality. Those disputed borders are also what prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. Russia wanted all of Ukraine. Not part. I want a night with Jennifer Anniston. Sadly it won't happen. Putin knew long ago that Ukraine wasn't going to go the way he wanted. In any negotiation there are demands at the beginning that neither side expects to achieve. As the rounds progress, the lists get shorter, and what remains is probably most of what the parties really wanted. Tracking Russia's demands from February to today illustrates the point. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 12:29:20 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By SmilingBandit: "Disputed borders" is an interesting way of describing a previous Russian invasion. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By SmilingBandit: Originally Posted By rca2222: Originally Posted By lorazepam: Originally Posted By rca2222: If it was nonsense, then why does Russia seem to be signaling those very goals now? I don't disagree that Putin would have loved to take over Ukraine or make it a vassal state, but it was clear long before the tanks rolled that it wasn't going to happen. He knew what he was up against as soon as the international reaction materialized. If he was given a way out then he would have taken it, in my opinion. Your location doesn't make your opinions universally unimpeachable. You would be well served by a bit of humility. What way out should he be given? Sovereign territory of another nation as a reward for attacking them and then leaving? Fuck me. I'm not saying that Ukraine "should have" given Russia anything, and I stated that clearly in the original post. What I am saying is that Russia would probably not have invaded had their been concessions, such as Crimea and parts of the Donbas region. Those places will never be reunited with Ukraine, and in Crimea it would seem that the locals don't want to be. It isn't fair, or just, but it's the reality. Those disputed borders are also what prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. "Disputed borders" is an interesting way of describing a previous Russian invasion. It's the phrase that NATO uses to disqualify Ukraine. |
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NV, USA
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Posted: 3/28/2022 12:30:25 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By planemaker: I don't think Russia has the ability to do to any other city what they've done to Mariupol. At this point, as long as western weaponry continues to flow like water, Russia will end up getting pushed back to the original pre-war borders and possibly removed from Crimea. The only peace accord the Ukrainians will want to sign is one where Russia gives up its claims to Ukrainian land altogether. After that, it's up to Ukraine to decide what it wants to do. For sure, Ukraine can count on money coming in for rebuilding. The west may use all the seized Russian assets to get the money to send to them just as a big FU to Putin (assuming he's still around). The west also wants access to Ukrainian resources like wheat, oil, and gas. That's why money will pour into Ukraine post-war. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By planemaker: Originally Posted By spydercomonkey: Originally Posted By Balu: Originally Posted By spydercomonkey: Originally Posted By Eight_Ring: Originally Posted By _disconnector_: Originally Posted By spydercomonkey: Originally Posted By Birddog15: Originally Posted By spydercomonkey: Amazing clip:
And overall great (37 post) thread on how sanctions will begin the unraveling of Russia:
If that first clip is from a pro Putin talk show, then I guess what he is saying is that it must either be total victory over Ukraine, or the end of Russia. Am I understanding that correctly? He's saying essentially that if "The Great Power known as Russia" TM can't subdue little Ukraine, then the mythos of Russian Power/ Greatness will be shattered irrevocably, and they will be on their way as a worthless power and heading toward the dustbin of history. Basically he's saying if they can't take Ukraine, any future threat against NATO or the US will seem utterly absurd. And it was their ability to threaten NATO/US that have Russia its Gravitas and domestic legitimacy for the last 70+ years. The perception of power *is* power . . . and the world's perception of Russia is that they couldn't knock over a lemonade stand run by a troop of girl scouts at this point. If they don't win definitively - total surrender without conditions - then they lose. Period. They are setting the stage for escalation. What other choice do they have? Serious question. Plenty; the best case is not escalation but just keep doing what they are doing until they can negotiate a 80/20 solution: 1. Crimea recognized as Russian territory 2. Ukraine commits to not join NATO or host offensive weapons (ABM, SRBM, Cruise, etc) 3. Donbass becomes 'autonomous' buffer state* (this the least important of the 2) Achieving 1+2 would actually be a substantial victory, especially if forecast out 40-50 years. Assuming of course that the west removes sanctions if Ukraine asks them too as part of the peace deal. Thats my biggest fear - Ukraine strikes a peace deal with Russia...and then the US/West says 'fuck that' and keeps the sanctions going, prompting Russia to continue the war. Thats when escalation is going to happen. That's a completely untenable end state for Ukraine. Why would they even consider a "deal" like that? They would be fools to agree to anything less than the restoration of Ukraine's Budapest Accord borders. Uggh, unless the US/NATO somehow put boots on the ground in Ukraine, or Putin 'dies from covid', that peace deal is the single best outcome Ukraine can hope for. Russia is a bunch of brutish, drunken oafs weilding ancient weapons built by commies... but they have an authoritarian regime, 140 million people, and a bottomless stockpile of dumb bombs and artillery. Collectively, Russia can institute a draft, zombie horde this out, taking insane casualties but steadily scouring ukrainian cities from the earth. Every day this war goes on, more of Ukraine is smashed to rubble. Already Mariupol looks like downtown Syria. Once this happens to every city, Ukraine (a poor country pre-invasion) will be effectively destroyed, destined to poverty and misery for decades barring a complete $100+ Billion rebuilding fund from the west. So, by comparison, that peace deal is pretty sweet; its essentially a status quo antebellum, recognizing the facts on the ground that existed pre-invasion. Sucks but thats reality. I don't think Russia has the ability to do to any other city what they've done to Mariupol. At this point, as long as western weaponry continues to flow like water, Russia will end up getting pushed back to the original pre-war borders and possibly removed from Crimea. The only peace accord the Ukrainians will want to sign is one where Russia gives up its claims to Ukrainian land altogether. After that, it's up to Ukraine to decide what it wants to do. For sure, Ukraine can count on money coming in for rebuilding. The west may use all the seized Russian assets to get the money to send to them just as a big FU to Putin (assuming he's still around). The west also wants access to Ukrainian resources like wheat, oil, and gas. That's why money will pour into Ukraine post-war. I hope your right and I'm wrong. But I dont really see the happy ending here for Ukraine. -If Ukraine was this golden goose, we'd have expected a lot more investment into the country before it got invaded -Its hard to see how much $ is to be made in a country thats had much of its infrastructre - especially its crucial port cities where it can export grain and materials - blown to bits. -The amount of $ Ukraine will need to rebuild was recently estimated at $560 Billion; should the war drag on at its current pace for another month or two rebuilding may reach $1 Trillion. No one is sending $500B-$1 Trillion to Ukraine, a country neither in NATO or the EU nor really essential to the US or EU beyond being a meat grinder against the Russians. -Its far faster for the US to re-jigger its agriculture to produce more wheat (perhaps plant less corn for ethanol and corn syrup) to boost world wheat stocks then it is to rebuild ukraine into an wheat exporting powerhouse. The most likely recovery I see is China poorly rebuilding Ukraine in exchange for long term wheat supplies and being a central hub of Chinas EU Belt and Road Initiative. |
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OR, USA
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Posted: 3/28/2022 12:31:14 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlabamaFan64: I read that post. It was very interesting. What I'm wondering now is how long can they keep that 60% operational. They only need a few to maintain the status quo, look at North Korea. They only have a handful and it completely changes the geo-political game. Moving foreword, Russia is likely to funnel most of their availible budget into maintaining it's nuclear submarine fleet. What's left will be used to patch up a few mobile launchers. They don't need thousands when a few hundred will accomplish the same goals. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 12:31:23 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Ryan_Scott: Russia wanted all of Ukraine. Not part. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Ryan_Scott: Originally Posted By rca2222: I'm not saying that Ukraine "should have" given Russia anything, and I stated that clearly in the original post. What I am saying is that Russia would probably not have invaded had their been concessions, such as Crimea and parts of the Donbas region. Those places will never be reunited with Ukraine, and in Crimea it would seem that the locals don't want to be. It isn't fair, or just, but it's the reality. Those disputed borders are also what prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. Russia wanted all of Ukraine. Not part. Well, for starters. Their aspirations were far greater. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 12:31:32 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryYou gonna keep your brass? |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 12:32:51 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By planemaker: The theory is that Russia cannot resupply because they no longer have the materiel to resupply with. On the other hand, Ukraine can continue to use ATGMs, and have supposedly received some advanced SAMs of some sort that will defeat the cruise missiles (what few Russia has left). Once Ukraine gets more of those and anti-ship missiles, the ability of Russia to prosecute the war goes to near zero. Ukraine has been pushing the Russians back on all fronts including in the east. It's still going to be a long, slow slog to dislodge the Russians and send them packing. The West needs to hurry up and get the advanced weapons and equipment like SAMS, Switchblades and the like to Ukraine. Talk is cheap, lives are not. Then they deploy chemical weapons or tactical nukes. That is, unless they have some face-saving way to disengage and put and end to this crap. In a perfect world, we blast Putin, make everything good, and live happily ever after. Not going to happen; we help nobody by making the perfect the enemy of the good, and we are rapidly moving to the point where millions get to share the misery of hundreds of thousands of Ukranians. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 12:36:44 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By HIPPO:
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MO, USA
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Posted: 3/28/2022 12:38:00 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Chokey:
The darker part of my soul wants their bodies feed fish in the sunken hulks of their toys |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 12:38:25 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CenterMass762:  You'd have been hard pressed to even find someone in GD who thought the Ukrainians would last more than a week or two. Military strategists, the Pentagon, everybody thought Russia would walk all over Ukraine. The international reaction didn't materialize until days after the invasion. Due less to Ukranian resistance and more to Russian failure to apply their own doctrine and policy. Not to take anything away from Ukraine, but had the Russians done what their previous war plans dictated, and followed the doctrine they inherited from the USSR, this thing would have been wrapped up by St. Patrick's Day. I'm glad they didn't--I hate the fuckers--but we need to be realistic about this. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 12:38:28 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By SmilingBandit: "Disputed borders" is an interesting way of describing a previous Russian invasion. We should play by their rules. Have our troops take off their flag and volunteer, then go for it. I'm only half joking. |
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VA, USA
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Posted: 3/28/2022 12:39:27 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By HIPPO:
Armenia has denied this. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 12:39:52 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spydercomonkey: -The amount of $ Ukraine will need to rebuild was recently estimated at $560 Billion; should the war drag on at its current pace for another month or two rebuilding may reach $1 Trillion. No one is sending $500B-$1 Trillion to Ukraine, a country neither in NATO or the EU nor really essential to the US or EU beyond being a meat grinder against the Russians. . Sure they will. It will be an excellent opportunity for graft. Look at the cast of characters/ politicians involved when it was small money. |
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MO, USA
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Posted: 3/28/2022 12:40:49 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By bikedamon: Why the fuck would the Russian people be in favor of invading Poland? What am I missing?  What else are you telling fsb? Whatever doesn't get you 20 years in magadans Novi gulag resort if you're smart |
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NY, USA
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Posted: 3/28/2022 12:41:03 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CS223: Now would be an ideal time for a military coup. Seize the Kremlin and leave Putin in his hidey hole. Shame there isn't a single Russian with the courage to pull it off. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CS223: Originally Posted By HIPPO:
Yep. Hiding in a bunker makes a coup considerably easier. They don’t have to get you, they just need to get everyone to stop answering your calls. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 12:44:29 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MBUZICHOMA: At the height of the Soviet Union there were 750k troops in Ukraine. Not sure how under 200k could possibly occupy it. Maybe Putin did believe that the Ukrainans wouldn't fight and welcome them? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MBUZICHOMA: Originally Posted By BerettaGuy: Originally Posted By HIPPO:
Just like I've said here for months. The only reason for the invasion is that Putin wants all of Ukraine. If he would ever agree to anything, it would be to buy time for another major attack and new plans to subvert the Ukrainian government. At the height of the Soviet Union there were 750k troops in Ukraine. Not sure how under 200k could possibly occupy it. Maybe Putin did believe that the Ukrainans wouldn't fight and welcome them? Putin knew that Ukrainians hate Russian occupation and would never welcome them- he felt he could defeat them easily with his army. Poor planning and a piss poor army that has more hubris than talent. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 12:47:04 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lorazepam: When it was the soviet union, they were powerful. Russia by itself is a trailer park with an oil well and vodka distillery. And 6K nuclear weapons. Even if you figure 90% don't work, still leaves enough to make trouble. |
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MO, USA
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Posted: 3/28/2022 12:49:29 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By agillig: They don't want any part of US. In Ohio, the OAB would be just another Buckeye. And we all know there's no shortage of "Florida Man." Wouldn't just be oab! They call us legion for we are many. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 12:49:37 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lorazepam: Joe's primary job as vp was a deterrent to anyone wanting to shoot obammy.  Brought a smile to my face on an otherwise craptastic day. Cheers. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 12:51:59 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lorazepam:
Huh. We were there training them for 6 years. It is why they are beating the russians with inferior numbers. That and all the equipment we have supplied. So we have had an interest there, and if Ukraine were allowed to develop properly, they could be the power house economic country of Europe. They have potential as a great trading partner to anyone with more than 3 brain cells. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 12:52:00 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By rca2222: I'm not saying that Ukraine "should have" given Russia anything, and I stated that clearly in the original post. What I am saying is that Russia would probably not have invaded had their been concessions, such as Crimea and parts of the Donbas region. Those places will never be reunited with Ukraine, and in Crimea it would seem that the locals don't want to be. It isn't fair, or just, but it's the reality. Those disputed borders are also what prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. Are you basing this on their rational, consistent, compliant, and legal interactions with other nations including other "disputed borders" that have taken place in the recent past? |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 12:52:32 PM EDT
[#40]
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NV, USA
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Posted: 3/28/2022 12:54:59 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lorazepam: Huh. We were there training them for 6 years. It is why they are beating the russians with inferior numbers. That and all the equipment we have supplied. So we have had an interest there, and if Ukraine were allowed to develop properly, they could be the power house economic country of Europe. They have potential as a great trading partner to anyone with more than 3 brain cells. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lorazepam: Originally Posted By spydercomonkey: The only strategic point of interest the US had in Ukraine was keeping Russia from having it, and then later this was shifted to turning Ukraine into a meat grinder for Russia. That later objective has been achieved. Pre and post invasion, the US had/has little if any economic, cultural, or military association with Ukraine. Its a pretty useless country for the US; had Russia not taken Crimea in 2014 it would hold similar US interest to Romania or North Macedonia. Huh. We were there training them for 6 years. It is why they are beating the russians with inferior numbers. That and all the equipment we have supplied. So we have had an interest there, and if Ukraine were allowed to develop properly, they could be the power house economic country of Europe. They have potential as a great trading partner to anyone with more than 3 brain cells. We were training them to kill Russians / serve as a meat grinder in case of invasion. Thats now happening brilliantly; but that also means that the strategic interest has been achieved. But training is a minimal sign of interest; the US trains forces all around the world (random shitholes in africa so they can fight arfro-durkas, for example.) That doesnt mean they are all that important to us. They arent much of a trading partner for the US because they are poor, and so could buy relatively few US products. And their main export - wheat - is something the US produces in vast quantities. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 12:56:41 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By KaerMorhenResident:
Biden Administration is pushing for Ukraine to make a deal with Russia. That deal would likely involve Ukraine seceding the eastern sliver of the Donbass including Mariupol and recognizing the sovereignty of those separatist regions. It would also more likely involve Ukraine pledging not to join NATO (although there could be a sunset on that pledge). Frankly, I think that's where this situation is heading anyways. The only question is how many people need to die before it gets there. However, a cease fire and negotiated peace does NOT serve the best interests of the USA in the long term, because ideally the Russians would be bleed white for a number of months more. I think though that the Biden Administration sees the writing on the wall. We and the rest of the world will have serious agricultural issues this year if the Russian sanctions are kept in place. The Democrats will also be forced to drill for domestic oil and natural gas if the Russian sanctions are kept in place. Food and gas shortages would be catastrophic for the Democrats in the midterms and even in 2024 if the Ukraine conflict stretches out into 2023, which it very well might. This disappointing and unfortunate fiasco though has strengthened the GOP's political position. The Democrats 11 seat majority in the House and the 1 seat majority in the Senate is absolutely certain to be lost in the midterms. If the GOP has a solid united message of hammering the Biden Administration on Gas and Food costs they may even be able to get a super majority in the Senate. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 1:00:59 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Bold for emphasis, and this is part of the reason Putin invaded. For one, Russian Big Brother can't stand to see Slavic Little Brother outshine them. For two, Russia's growth opportunities need more inputs. Donbas & Crimea in particular have resource wealth. Ukraine exports a lot of grain (and other things) through Odessa. Shift all that export income to Russia's accounts instead of Ukraine's, and Putin and his cronies get that much richer. If Ukraine developed and became a stable and corruption-free country, they absolutely would become an economic powerhouse for all of Europe. This invasion was Russian imperialism, pure and simple. So, covet and greed. Jealousy and envy. Any other adjectives? |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 1:02:14 PM EDT
[#44]
Russia had so many troops in Ukraine in the Cold War not just to make sure Ukrainians didn’t have thoughts of independence but also in case they were needed in Czechoslovakia,Hungary and Romania-especially when Ceaucescu attempted rapprochement. They also quite obviously would have been rapidly available against NATO,might as well keep you them back after the Warsaw Pact sucked up the damage from NATO.
This is also why it took so long for Ukraine to respond in 2014. Most the ex-Soviet equipment was still in the west,their tank and tactical aircraft repair/depot facilities are in Lviv. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 1:02:15 PM EDT
[#45]
Rob Lee (@RALee85) March 28, 2022 |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 1:03:08 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spydercomonkey: Thats basically my take on things too. My gut instinct of how Putins plans shifted: Putin Plan A: "My build up of menacing forces on the border to ratchet up tensions will compel a weak and divided west / ukraine to go for quick negotiation to solve the Ukrainian nato / crimea problem once and for all. No one wants to play poker with the Vladster" Putin Plan B: "In unlikely case this doesn't work, lightning war of regime change. Glorious Red Army TM will sweep like through Ukrainian Nazis and race traitors like a scythe through so much wheat, and funnyman puppet zelenski will flee to europe. The war will be over before the West can respond, and the new Totally Legit pro-Russian ruler of Ukraine will strike a lasting peace." Putin Plan C: "Fuck fuck fuck, thats a lot of ATGMs. And most of the last decades military money has been stollen by totally not me.... time to channel my idol, the OG Man of Steel himself, and just send everything I have into the meat grinder in hopes of smashing the Ukrainians teeth with our bones, then overwhelm them with our Orc hordes and mass MLRS dakka." Putin Plan D: "Fuck, these Ukrainians can endure more suffering than a Dostoevsky novel, and my economy is imploding because the only thing we produce domestically is oil and razor blades. Lets double down on smashing their cites and hope they come to the negotiating table, and if not we'll snag what territory we can by May 9th then declare victory." I think one of the main reasons this war is so insane and poorly executed is that Putin did not expect Plan A to fail, and certainly did not then expect Plan B to fail as well. And so the war has been less a carefully planned lethal ballet, and more a slap dash improvisation on the ground...using a military command structure not suited to improvisation. That's very close to my assessment of what happened. Only my opinion. Vlad has been sitting in his office allowing nobody to come within ten yards of him. Those he allows that close don't dare tell him anything but what he wants to hear. He's been smelling his own farts and reading his own press releases for so long he has no real grasp of the actual situation. I also believe that the sanctions surprised him. He was prepared for the weak sanctions the US and NATO might bring on, but... When the Ukes stood up to the schoolyard bully and bloodied his nose, suddenly all the kids saw him as weak. The sanction "pile on" was all the smaller kids paying him back for being the bully for so long. That's really a major factor in the current dilemma for Vlad. Now Vlad is deeply into the tar baby, and can't extract himself. Every day this goes on, Vlad looks weaker and more inept. I went into boot camp in '78, I remember when the Russians were the big scary bear we were all worried about. I have totally enjoyed lots of popcorn watching this shit show. |
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FL, USA
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Posted: 3/28/2022 1:07:06 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spydercomonkey: Thats basically my take on things too. My gut instinct of how Putins plans shifted: Putin Plan A: "My build up of menacing forces on the border to ratchet up tensions will compel a weak and divided west / ukraine to go for quick negotiation to solve the Ukrainian nato / crimea problem once and for all. No one wants to play poker with the Vladster" Putin Plan B: "In unlikely case this doesn't work, lightning war of regime change. Glorious Red Army TM will sweep like through Ukrainian Nazis and race traitors like a scythe through so much wheat, and funnyman puppet zelenski will flee to europe. The war will be over before the West can respond, and the new Totally Legit pro-Russian ruler of Ukraine will strike a lasting peace." Putin Plan C: "Fuck fuck fuck, thats a lot of ATGMs. And most of the last decades military money has been stollen by totally not me.... time to channel my idol, the OG Man of Steel himself, and just send everything I have into the meat grinder in hopes of smashing the Ukrainians teeth with our bones, then overwhelm them with our Orc hordes and mass MLRS dakka." Putin Plan D: "Fuck, these Ukrainians can endure more suffering than a Dostoevsky novel, and my economy is imploding because the only thing we produce domestically is oil and razor blades. Lets double down on smashing their cites and hope they come to the negotiating table, and if not we'll snag what territory we can by May 9th then declare victory." I think one of the main reasons this war is so insane and poorly executed is that Putin did not expect Plan A to fail, and certainly did not then expect Plan B to fail as well. And so the war has been less a carefully planned lethal ballet, and more a slap dash improvisation on the ground...using a military command structure not suited to improvisation. That's probably accurate. I would put a "Plan A-B" in between there: The commando-raid/assassination of Zelenskyy combined with the air-assault on Hostomel Airport followed by forces landed to quickly take Kiev, remove the remnants of the Ukrainian leadership, install the pro-russian puppet and order the military deployed along the east to surrender. All of that went to shit in a classic clown/shitshow that will be studied for generations. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 1:07:25 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spydercomonkey: Thats basically my take on things too. My gut instinct of how Putins plans shifted: Putin Plan A: "My build up of menacing forces on the border to ratchet up tensions will compel a weak and divided west / ukraine to go for quick negotiation to solve the Ukrainian nato / crimea problem once and for all. No one wants to play poker with the Vladster" Putin Plan B: "In unlikely case this doesn't work, lightning war of regime change. Glorious Red Army TM will sweep like through Ukrainian Nazis and race traitors like a scythe through so much wheat, and funnyman puppet zelenski will flee to europe. The war will be over before the West can respond, and the new Totally Legit pro-Russian ruler of Ukraine will strike a lasting peace." Putin Plan C: "Fuck fuck fuck, thats a lot of ATGMs. And most of the last decades military money has been stollen by totally not me.... time to channel my idol, the OG Man of Steel himself, and just send everything I have into the meat grinder in hopes of smashing the Ukrainians teeth with our bones, then overwhelm them with our Orc hordes and mass MLRS dakka." Putin Plan D: "Fuck, these Ukrainians can endure more suffering than a Dostoevsky novel, and my economy is imploding because the only thing we produce domestically is oil and razor blades. Lets double down on smashing their cites and hope they come to the negotiating table, and if not we'll snag what territory we can by May 9th then declare victory." I think one of the main reasons this war is so insane and poorly executed is that Putin did not expect Plan A to fail, and certainly did not then expect Plan B to fail as well. And so the war has been less a carefully planned lethal ballet, and more a slap dash improvisation on the ground...using a military command structure not suited to improvisation. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spydercomonkey: Originally Posted By rca2222: Originally Posted By spydercomonkey: Originally Posted By Eight_Ring: Originally Posted By _disconnector_: Originally Posted By spydercomonkey: Originally Posted By Birddog15: Originally Posted By spydercomonkey: Amazing clip:
And overall great (37 post) thread on how sanctions will begin the unraveling of Russia:
If that first clip is from a pro Putin talk show, then I guess what he is saying is that it must either be total victory over Ukraine, or the end of Russia. Am I understanding that correctly? He's saying essentially that if "The Great Power known as Russia" TM can't subdue little Ukraine, then the mythos of Russian Power/ Greatness will be shattered irrevocably, and they will be on their way as a worthless power and heading toward the dustbin of history. Basically he's saying if they can't take Ukraine, any future threat against NATO or the US will seem utterly absurd. And it was their ability to threaten NATO/US that have Russia its Gravitas and domestic legitimacy for the last 70+ years. The perception of power *is* power . . . and the world's perception of Russia is that they couldn't knock over a lemonade stand run by a troop of girl scouts at this point. If they don't win definitively - total surrender without conditions - then they lose. Period. They are setting the stage for escalation. What other choice do they have? Serious question. Plenty; the best case is not escalation but just keep doing what they are doing until they can negotiate a 80/20 solution: 1. Crimea recognized as Russian territory 2. Ukraine commits to not join NATO or host offensive weapons (ABM, SRBM, Cruise, etc) 3. Donbass becomes 'autonomous' buffer state* (this the least important of the 2) Achieving 1+2 would actually be a substantial victory, especially if forecast out 40-50 years. Assuming of course that the west removes sanctions if Ukraine asks them too as part of the peace deal. Thats my biggest fear - Ukraine strikes a peace deal with Russia...and then the US/West says 'fuck that' and keeps the sanctions going, prompting Russia to continue the war. Thats when escalation is going to happen. Your three points are the exact ones I made before the invasion, though I added the restoration of water flow through the Crimean canal. I'm convinced that if they had been offered before that he wouldn't have invaded. That is NOT to say that I think he should get those things, or that Ukraine should agree to such demands. Sanctions are going to be a political problem for the west regardless. If Russian wells, pipelines, and refineries are permanently damaged (see Zeihan), the oil shock will be politically untenable. If images of starving people hit the news because Russian grain isn't arriving, yet another politically untenable situation will develop. Like it or not, Russia is an important world supplier of both commodities. Thats basically my take on things too. My gut instinct of how Putins plans shifted: Putin Plan A: "My build up of menacing forces on the border to ratchet up tensions will compel a weak and divided west / ukraine to go for quick negotiation to solve the Ukrainian nato / crimea problem once and for all. No one wants to play poker with the Vladster" Putin Plan B: "In unlikely case this doesn't work, lightning war of regime change. Glorious Red Army TM will sweep like through Ukrainian Nazis and race traitors like a scythe through so much wheat, and funnyman puppet zelenski will flee to europe. The war will be over before the West can respond, and the new Totally Legit pro-Russian ruler of Ukraine will strike a lasting peace." Putin Plan C: "Fuck fuck fuck, thats a lot of ATGMs. And most of the last decades military money has been stollen by totally not me.... time to channel my idol, the OG Man of Steel himself, and just send everything I have into the meat grinder in hopes of smashing the Ukrainians teeth with our bones, then overwhelm them with our Orc hordes and mass MLRS dakka." Putin Plan D: "Fuck, these Ukrainians can endure more suffering than a Dostoevsky novel, and my economy is imploding because the only thing we produce domestically is oil and razor blades. Lets double down on smashing their cites and hope they come to the negotiating table, and if not we'll snag what territory we can by May 9th then declare victory." I think one of the main reasons this war is so insane and poorly executed is that Putin did not expect Plan A to fail, and certainly did not then expect Plan B to fail as well. And so the war has been less a carefully planned lethal ballet, and more a slap dash improvisation on the ground...using a military command structure not suited to improvisation. I think you left off Plan E: We're going to use tactical nukes to create a no mans land. The general consensus is Russia/Putin wants to create a buffer zone for Russia. They can't occupy and hold it, and it's increasingly obvious they're not going to get a puppet government in UKR. So it looks like the odds of Russia drawing a new border that includes no go zone by tossing a few low yield nukes are going up. Where that line gets drawn is the question. Does he take out Kyiv in the process? They obviously want the coastal areas and can probably hold the food and mineral rich areas of the east. They've already rubbled the cities and are starting to deport locals which would make that task easier. I could be wrong and I hope so, but Putin does not look like he's going to walk away from this. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 1:08:22 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ludder093: Rob Lee (@RALee85) March 28, 2022 Good. Make the russian convoy drivers all wonder if they are about to go die for nothing. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 1:08:23 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By R0N: Powder charges, the Russian's do it backwards, ours come with the charges on and we remove them. Theirs come without them and you added, that is a horrible idea. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By R0N: Originally Posted By rca2222: What are they tying on to the shell? Powder charges, the Russian's do it backwards, ours come with the charges on and we remove them. Theirs come without them and you added, that is a horrible idea. dont let them know that. Lol. |
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