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Posted: 7/30/2022 5:36:37 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: No, I think the best outcome involves the maximum destruction of military-age Russians. No matter how this war ends, Moscow will be back at its shenanigans in a few years. I think western powers understand this, now. Russia was warmly invited to be part of the world that doesn't rape and murder it's neighbors. Everybody gets it now, I think. Slam the iron curtain shut on them and weld it. |
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Posted: 7/30/2022 5:43:19 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Ryan_Scott: The Ukrainians need to not do anything that would cause the Belarusian public to support their leadership, which is on the verge of falling already. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Ryan_Scott: Originally Posted By Freiheit8472: Would like to see some HIMARS strikes in Belarus now with those missile launches. Is there any reasoning to NOT do that? Like if they hit them Belarus leadership could send their puny military in as an act of self defense rather than expend more political capital doing unprovoked? (It’s all Bs anyway since they’re launching missiles… but it’d be so like them to blame Ukraine for retaliating) The Ukrainians need to not do anything that would cause the Belarusian public to support their leadership, which is on the verge of falling already. As infuriating as these attacks from Belarus must be, they are of little to no military value. These attacks only happen to let Lukashenko do enough to placate Putin while keeping Belarus out of the war and himself in power. Ultimately one of two things will happen - there will be a color revolution once Russia is too weak to do anything about it, or Lukashenko will flip sides when Russia is too weak to do anything about it. Until then Ukraine can accept the minimal damages and deaths that come from these attacks. The alternative is active involvement from Belarus, which neither Ukraine nor (I suspect) Belarus wants. |
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USA
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Posted: 7/30/2022 5:44:26 PM EDT
[#3]
I have a feeling those 750,000 to 1,000.000 Ukrainian soldiers will show up fully armed when and where the Russians least expect it. Pretty sure NATO and the US can come up with a million rifles, ammo and gear if given a few weeks---which they've had.
Time will tell... |
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Posted: 7/30/2022 5:50:01 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Chaingun: With activity like that, I expect to update this thread one morning and see the headline "UA retook Crimea" Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Chaingun: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: FIRMS from 47 minutes ago, spicy. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FY7XzCnWYAAAVtV?format=jpg&name=900x900 It would seem that somehow Ukraine is able to mass fire support in that southern area. It almost looks as intense as the rooskie arty was last month in the east. Hopefully they can pound the crap out of the Russians and cut them off or just destroy them in place. Maybe the partisans are helping to direct fire? |
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Posted: 7/30/2022 6:00:47 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Billy_Ringo: I have a feeling those 750,000 to 1,000.000 Ukrainian soldiers will show up fully armed when and where the Russians least expect it. Pretty sure NATO and the US can come up with a million rifles, ammo and gear if given a few weeks---which they've had. Time will tell... NATO with competent leadership can…… Is that what NATO has? |
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USA
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Posted: 7/30/2022 6:04:05 PM EDT
[#6]
 Failed To Load Title “Mine petals”. Are these targeting Russians or Ukrainians? https://youtube.com/shorts/CJTstT1sUFA?feature=share |
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Posted: 7/30/2022 6:26:26 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By SpaceGuy: Imagine a dozen operators doing that and immediately swapping to a new drone and view as soon as it kills the target. Just horiffic ideas. Throw a few quads into a trench and let them hunt for targets. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By SpaceGuy: Originally Posted By GreyHat: Ukranians use FPV kamikaze quadcopter Imagine a dozen operators doing that and immediately swapping to a new drone and view as soon as it kills the target. Just horiffic ideas. Throw a few quads into a trench and let them hunt for targets. |
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AL, USA
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Posted: 7/30/2022 6:30:45 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stone-age: Now that we are later in the war I wonder what happens if russia does launch 1 nuke. Lets say they pass their fake referendum, declare some region now russian territory, declare that if ukraine tries to kick them out of the region it is an attack on the nation of russia, ukraine tries to kick them out and is looking like they will kick out the russian army, so russia uses 1 tactical nuke. What would the rest of the world actually do? I'm no expert in this area so this is just speculation but logic says Russia using a nuke or nukes changes the calculus for NATO and the west in general. Nuclear threats being just that, threats, was part of a long standing balance and an understood dynamic. Russia would completely re-write nuclear risk assessments by actually firing one off at Ukraine. At that point a pre-emptive counter strike to decapitate the entire Russian state would not only become a serious consideration but will look like an inevitable move that must be made. Why? Russians just stated that they will consider Ukraine a legitimate target but they also said Brussels and Washington DC are next. If they already fired one off, what keeps them from making good on the next threats? Therefore a massive pre-emptive nuclear strike at all sites of Russian military capability would be the only option left. So, essentially it's suicide for Russia. Hopefully they understand this. |
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MT, USA
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Posted: 7/30/2022 7:06:08 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Billy_Ringo: I have a feeling those 750,000 to 1,000.000 Ukrainian soldiers will show up fully armed when and where the Russians least expect it. Pretty sure NATO and the US can come up with a million rifles, ammo and gear if given a few weeks---which they've had. Time will tell... ArfCom members could likely come up with a million rifles and a billion rounds of ammo. NATO will likely fail at that simple task. |
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NE, USA
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Posted: 7/30/2022 7:15:59 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stone-age: I think western powers understand this, now. Russia was warmly invited to be part of the world that doesn't rape and murder it's neighbors. Everybody gets it now, I think. Slam the iron curtain shut on them and weld it. ^THIS. I'm old enough to remember when the Iron Curtain came down. There was an excitement about the prospect of Russia embracing capitalism and integrating into Western society. This move by Putin has pulled the curtain back and there is NO way the West will ever view Russia as anything other than a backwards, drunken, uneducated country that was fortunate enough to be blessed with great natural resources. Ever shaved with a razor made in Russia? Drive a Russian made car? Use a computer made in Russia? If the West can wean themselves off of Putin's energy tit, there will never be another reason to deal with these people again. |
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FL, USA
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Posted: 7/30/2022 7:18:30 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By anonimovaca:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Avk0qCVa7Ec“Mine petals”. Are these targeting Russians or Ukrainians? https://youtube.com/shorts/CJTstT1sUFA?feature=share I remember those from the Afghan war. The first one with the Soviets. My first guess is it's Russians sprinkling them on Ukrainian civilians. I dont see the UA dropping them on civilians in Russian held territory. |
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Posted: 7/30/2022 7:24:33 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By planemaker: It would seem that somehow Ukraine is able to mass fire support in that southern area. It almost looks as intense as the rooskie arty was last month in the east. Hopefully they can pound the crap out of the Russians and cut them off or just destroy them in place. Maybe the partisans are helping to direct fire? From what I saw about their fire control system they are all more or less connected and part of the network. They are able to say "Ok, everybody in the area fire at this target. Ok, now everybody in the area fire at this target. Now everybody within reach of this other target fire at it." Russians are sending messages via passenger pigeon or something. "Everybody fire at something. Or just fire, whatever." |
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Posted: 7/30/2022 7:28:08 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By anonimovaca: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Avk0qCVa7Ec“Mine petals”. Are these targeting Russians or Ukrainians? https://youtube.com/shorts/CJTstT1sUFA?feature=share It seems to resemble those plastic green parrot mines the russians use. It's plastic with 2 chemicals separated. When the mine is stepped on the chemicals mix and explode. |
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IRL
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Posted: 7/30/2022 7:29:40 PM EDT
[#14]
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Posted: 7/30/2022 7:46:58 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stone-age: I think western powers understand this, now. Russia was warmly invited to be part of the world that doesn't rape and murder it's neighbors. Everybody gets it now, I think. Slam the iron curtain shut on them and weld it. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stone-age: Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu: No, I think the best outcome involves the maximum destruction of military-age Russians. No matter how this war ends, Moscow will be back at its shenanigans in a few years. I think western powers understand this, now. Russia was warmly invited to be part of the world that doesn't rape and murder it's neighbors. Everybody gets it now, I think. Slam the iron curtain shut on them and weld it. If they cant expand externally they’ll disintegrate internally. |
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IL, USA
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Posted: 7/30/2022 7:58:10 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Ryan_Scott: What slaves want more than freedom is a slave of their own. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Ryan_Scott: Originally Posted By jungatheart: They finally get a chance to brutalize others as they were brutalized. I suspect they feel vindicated by doing so. A lot of people who were sexually abused, turn into sexual abusers. Almost nothing can be done to change people like this. Sad for everyone involved. What slaves want more than freedom is a slave of their own. Given the low status Buryats have in Russia…remember when some of them got Jammed up in Kherson when they tried to fight back against Kadyrovites who stole their booty?….they probably get off on finally finding someone lower on the totem pole than them. |
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IL, USA
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Posted: 7/30/2022 8:02:41 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By SpaceGuy: Whats interesting is if you read a bit of 4Chan /pol/ you find that there's a LOT of the same verbiage going on towards China and the CCP right now. They are trying to rally Americans to view China as being anti-globohomo. In 5 years, I wonder if the MAGA crowd will like the Chinese in the same way as the Russians.
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By SpaceGuy: Originally Posted By iggy1337: I don't know if it was pure luck but for the US/Euro right appealing to the general mistrust of government and support frugal expenditure proved to be a master stroke. Putin adopting the gold standard, Putin defending Christians, Ukrainian Jew Nazis, muh slushy fund, BIOLABS  ect ect so far removed from reality that even the slightest digging can disprove it yet midlessly taken as gospel by some here.My personal favorite was Arfcommers complaing about the possible spred of guns in Europe......on this very site that considers ownership of arms a right drived from natural law supporting Euro gun grabbers doing their best to keep the populace disarmed. If a state fails in its protection by denying say single mothers the means to protect herself (like here) I certainly hope it's made easier for her to get a gun on every street corner. At the beginning @outofbattery posted a image that summed Russia IW up perfectly. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/211087/B9F3D050-7D4F-497F-90E6-7CB19B731C4F_jpe-2302090.jpg Whats interesting is if you read a bit of 4Chan /pol/ you find that there's a LOT of the same verbiage going on towards China and the CCP right now. They are trying to rally Americans to view China as being anti-globohomo. In 5 years, I wonder if the MAGA crowd will like the Chinese in the same way as the Russians.
Seen it among the “Red Pillers” for at least a year. Some of them honestly think CCP tyranny is a price worth paying so long as the libtards and trannys are “dealt with “ |
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USA
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Posted: 7/30/2022 8:07:17 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Ryan_Scott: What slaves want more than freedom is a slave of their own. I read something years ago, I think in relation to the Third Servile War (aka Spartacus' rebellion), but it expressed a sentiment very much like that. Something like 'it turns out that the slaves didn't object so much to slavery as they objected to being slaves, and were happy to obtain slaves of their own'. Human nature in a nutshell, really. |
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Posted: 7/30/2022 8:54:36 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GreenLantern: Seems like a poor design where the ammo links get spit back into your face! Well, it is a Russian POS design isn't it? |
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MN, USA
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Posted: 7/30/2022 9:33:59 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Balu: I'm no expert in this area so this is just speculation but logic says Russia using a nuke or nukes changes the calculus for NATO and the west in general. Nuclear threats being just that, threats, was part of a long standing balance and an understood dynamic. Russia would completely re-write nuclear risk assessments by actually firing one off at Ukraine. At that point a pre-emptive counter strike to decapitate the entire Russian state would not only become a serious consideration but will look like an inevitable move that must be made. Why? Russians just stated that they will consider Ukraine a legitimate target but they also said Brussels and Washington DC are next. If they already fired one off, what keeps them from making good on the next threats? Therefore a massive pre-emptive nuclear strike at all sites of Russian military capability would be the only option left. So, essentially it's suicide for Russia. Hopefully they understand this. I believe NATO is more concernes.about the nuclear plant south of Zap. They have probably told the commies if they blow the plant prepare for annihilation. |
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Posted: 7/30/2022 9:49:07 PM EDT
[#21]
Uhh...so sorry to send some of you guys into a tailspin of DIY OSINT sleuthing, but have you heard about the world's first public map of active GPS jamming activities??
 If you thought the FIRMS data was a good predictor of ongoing operations, how 'bout them apples? Frens, we live in interesting times indeed. More information at Average Joe's fingertips today than was available to entire teams of analysts at DIA, NGIA, and so on. Also following up from the NHK documentary posted earlier, if you aren't aware what SAR is or how it works, best read up on it. For 100 internet bucks, who is cognizant what GMTI means in that context? Because while you may be disinterested in satellites today, they are undoubtedly interested in you. 
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Posted: 7/30/2022 10:02:26 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stone-age: From what I saw about their fire control system they are all more or less connected and part of the network. They are able to say "Ok, everybody in the area fire at this target. Ok, now everybody in the area fire at this target. Now everybody within reach of this other target fire at it." Russians are sending messages via passenger pigeon or something. "Everybody fire at something. Or just fire, whatever." Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stone-age: Originally Posted By planemaker: It would seem that somehow Ukraine is able to mass fire support in that southern area. It almost looks as intense as the rooskie arty was last month in the east. Hopefully they can pound the crap out of the Russians and cut them off or just destroy them in place. Maybe the partisans are helping to direct fire? From what I saw about their fire control system they are all more or less connected and part of the network. They are able to say "Ok, everybody in the area fire at this target. Ok, now everybody in the area fire at this target. Now everybody within reach of this other target fire at it." Russians are sending messages via passenger pigeon or something. "Everybody fire at something. Or just fire, whatever." Passenger pigeon. Lol. I guess I'm thinking that the volume of fire from the UA side is dramatically higher now than it was a couple of months ago. That has to be a good sign of their ability to launch an effective offensive? |
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Posted: 7/30/2022 10:10:46 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#23]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GTLandser: Uhh...so sorry to send some of you guys into a tailspin of DIY OSINT sleuthing, but have you heard about the world's first public map of active GPS jamming activities?? If you thought the FIRMS data was a good predictor of ongoing operations, how 'bout them apples? Frens, we live in interesting times indeed. More information at Average Joe's fingertips today than was available to entire teams of analysts at DIA, NGIA, and so on. Also following up from the NHK documentary posted earlier, if you aren't aware what SAR is or how it works, best read up on it. For 100 internet bucks, who is cognizant what GMTI means in that context? Because while you may be disinterested in satellites today, they are undoubtedly interested in you. I did good sir, but it does not cover the area around Ukraine unfortunately, unless I'm missing something when I was playing with it.  It's an awesome setup otherwise, love how Moscow is constantly locally jammed.  GMTI is awesome, it shows you moving wheeled or tracked vehicles on an overlay of the SAR imagery. Go about 1:46 to see what it looks like for those unfamiliar.  APG-81 AESA Radar for the F-35 JSF |
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Posted: 7/30/2022 10:23:33 PM EDT
[#24]
Has this already been posted? Interesting look at the "hide and seek" between Ukr and Ru forces:
 «?????? ?'?, ????????? ???? ????? ??**????, ? ?**?? ???? ????????» — ?? ????????? ??? ???????? |
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Posted: 7/30/2022 10:26:16 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: I did good sir, but it does not cover the area around Ukraine unfortunately, unless I'm missing something when I was playing with it. It's an awesome setup otherwise, love how Moscow is constantly locally jammed. GMTI is awesome, it shows you moving wheeled or tracked vehicles on an overlay of the SAR imagery. Go about 1:46 to see what it looks like for those unfamiliar. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wIwAOupjMeMOh, I had no doubt you already know. But thanks for playing. From what I understand, SAR and GMTI has gotten to the point where we can track footprints now. Something to bear in mind for those of you out there finishing your "swimming pools" and "walk out basements".
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Posted: 7/30/2022 10:28:58 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jack67: That “news agency” is the propaganda arm of the Russian-backed separatists in Moldovan Transnistria. You have to factor that in… Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jack67: Originally Posted By Prime: Ukrainian infiltration in Transnistria. ….writes news agency Novosti Pridnestrovya.[/i] https://t.me/radio1pmr That “news agency” is the propaganda arm of the Russian-backed separatists in Moldovan Transnistria. You have to factor that in… No shit probably like Georgia where they bag Sheppard close to the separatist areas and then torturing them into admitting they were photoing Russian border guards. Never mind Russian border guards are on Georgian land in the first place. So much wrong to set right. |
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Posted: 7/30/2022 10:50:31 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GTLandser: Oh, I had no doubt you already know. But thanks for playing. From what I understand, SAR and GMTI has gotten to the point where we can track footprints now. Something to bear in mind for those of you out there finishing your "swimming pools" and "walk out basements". Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GTLandser: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: I did good sir, but it does not cover the area around Ukraine unfortunately, unless I'm missing something when I was playing with it. It's an awesome setup otherwise, love how Moscow is constantly locally jammed. GMTI is awesome, it shows you moving wheeled or tracked vehicles on an overlay of the SAR imagery. Go about 1:46 to see what it looks like for those unfamiliar. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wIwAOupjMeMOh, I had no doubt you already know. But thanks for playing. From what I understand, SAR and GMTI has gotten to the point where we can track footprints now. Something to bear in mind for those of you out there finishing your "swimming pools" and "walk out basements". I could not help participating. Just some info for others interested, look at this SAR system from Thales, the photos in the pdf are all you need to get ideas on what these systems can do. https://www.thalesdsi.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/I-Master-GMTI-SAR-Radar-092015.pdf |
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Posted: 7/30/2022 10:52:34 PM EDT
[#28]
ISW assessment for July 30th.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-30 |
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Posted: 7/30/2022 10:55:32 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By K0UA: Well, it is a Russian POS design isn't it? No, it’s a clean sheet Ukrainian design. It’s a pretty good vehicle that had some issues early on but got fixed |
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Posted: 7/30/2022 11:00:40 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Chaingun: Nice!  Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Chaingun: Originally Posted By gentlemanfarmer: One of two guns going to UA soon. More pics to follow. Not my paint job but a coproject, the Ukrainian diaspora is large and responsible for 60% of the gear getting over there. I'll do a spec sheet once they are done. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/419667/202ED4BE-8AD2-4451-9CE1-F3E16412E972_jpe-2469625.JPG  Attached FileAlmost done on the receiver tales, optics mounts getting sprayed this week. One Is “Bucha” for friends callsign Second is “Arey” sword of Kiev ska rus founder I suggested “Orchrist” the orc cleaver but that was voted down for those |
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Posted: 7/30/2022 11:01:25 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: I could not help participating. Just some info for others interested, look at this SAR system from Thales, the photos in the pdf are all you need to get ideas on what these systems can do. https://www.thalesdsi.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/I-Master-GMTI-SAR-Radar-092015.pdf Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Originally Posted By GTLandser: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: I did good sir, but it does not cover the area around Ukraine unfortunately, unless I'm missing something when I was playing with it. It's an awesome setup otherwise, love how Moscow is constantly locally jammed. GMTI is awesome, it shows you moving wheeled or tracked vehicles on an overlay of the SAR imagery. Go about 1:46 to see what it looks like for those unfamiliar. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wIwAOupjMeMOh, I had no doubt you already know. But thanks for playing. From what I understand, SAR and GMTI has gotten to the point where we can track footprints now. Something to bear in mind for those of you out there finishing your "swimming pools" and "walk out basements". I could not help participating. Just some info for others interested, look at this SAR system from Thales, the photos in the pdf are all you need to get ideas on what these systems can do. https://www.thalesdsi.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/I-Master-GMTI-SAR-Radar-092015.pdf |
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Posted: 7/30/2022 11:01:56 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By iggy1337: Looks like some stuff about the attack on the Ukrainian POW facilities has been intercepted. Apparently carried out by Wagner group. Yeah it also a reply to Wagner losing 75 guys in a Himars attack. |
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Posted: 7/30/2022 11:02:15 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By gentlemanfarmer: https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/419667/12174E1A-5865-49E9-B775-74738742AC30_jpe-2471258.JPG Almost done on the receiver tales, optics mounts getting sprayed this week. One Is “Bucha” for friends callsign Second is “Arey” sword of Kiev ska rus founder I suggested “Orchrist” the orc cleaver but that was voted down for those Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By gentlemanfarmer: Originally Posted By Chaingun: Originally Posted By gentlemanfarmer: One of two guns going to UA soon. More pics to follow. Not my paint job but a coproject, the Ukrainian diaspora is large and responsible for 60% of the gear getting over there. I'll do a spec sheet once they are done. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/419667/202ED4BE-8AD2-4451-9CE1-F3E16412E972_jpe-2469625.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/419667/12174E1A-5865-49E9-B775-74738742AC30_jpe-2471258.JPG Almost done on the receiver tales, optics mounts getting sprayed this week. One Is “Bucha” for friends callsign Second is “Arey” sword of Kiev ska rus founder I suggested “Orchrist” the orc cleaver but that was voted down for those Those are really looking slick! 
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Posted: 7/30/2022 11:08:16 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#34]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By _disconnector_: Holy shit! That entire unit weighs about 70lbs. Easily drone mountable. That's flat out sci-fi tech in the commercial space - imagine what the alphabet boys are using! Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By _disconnector_: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Originally Posted By GTLandser: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: I did good sir, but it does not cover the area around Ukraine unfortunately, unless I'm missing something when I was playing with it. It's an awesome setup otherwise, love how Moscow is constantly locally jammed. GMTI is awesome, it shows you moving wheeled or tracked vehicles on an overlay of the SAR imagery. Go about 1:46 to see what it looks like for those unfamiliar. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wIwAOupjMeMOh, I had no doubt you already know. But thanks for playing. From what I understand, SAR and GMTI has gotten to the point where we can track footprints now. Something to bear in mind for those of you out there finishing your "swimming pools" and "walk out basements". I could not help participating. Just some info for others interested, look at this SAR system from Thales, the photos in the pdf are all you need to get ideas on what these systems can do. https://www.thalesdsi.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/I-Master-GMTI-SAR-Radar-092015.pdf Multi-billion dollar SAR satellites.
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Posted: 7/30/2022 11:33:32 PM EDT
[#35]
Probably Russian stocks. Ukraine has them but not in large quantity, haven’t seen UA use them since 2015 or so.
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Posted: 7/30/2022 11:38:49 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GTLandser: [size=4]Uhh...so sorry to send some of you guys into a tailspin of DIY OSINT sleuthing, but have you heard about [url=https://gpsjam.org/]the world's first public map of active GPS jamming activities??... Oh yeah, well - wow. I looked at North America, and usually no jamming anywhere. Then starting about July 5 (you can go back daily), there's a small spot in the middle of nowhere about 20 miles east of Eagle Pass, Texas, and then spots east of there towards San Antonio. Only spots in all of North America, and consistently since about the 5th of July. Weird. I don't want to go down the rabbit hole of asking more about that... Too bad the war zone is blacked out. |
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Posted: 7/30/2022 11:52:16 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jack67: Oh yeah, well - wow. I looked at North America, and usually no jamming anywhere. Then starting about July 5 (you can go back daily), there's a small spot in the middle of nowhere about 20 miles east of Eagle Pass, Texas, and then spots east of there towards San Antonio. Only spots in all of North America, and consistently since about the 5th of July. Weird. I don't want to go down the rabbit hole of asking more about that... Too bad the war zone is blacked out. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jack67: Originally Posted By GTLandser: [size=4]Uhh...so sorry to send some of you guys into a tailspin of DIY OSINT sleuthing, but have you heard about [url=https://gpsjam.org/]the world's first public map of active GPS jamming activities??... Oh yeah, well - wow. I looked at North America, and usually no jamming anywhere. Then starting about July 5 (you can go back daily), there's a small spot in the middle of nowhere about 20 miles east of Eagle Pass, Texas, and then spots east of there towards San Antonio. Only spots in all of North America, and consistently since about the 5th of July. Weird. I don't want to go down the rabbit hole of asking more about that... Too bad the war zone is blacked out. One has to wonder if the Texas blob has something to do with drones and masses of illegals. |
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Posted: 7/31/2022 12:00:07 AM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jack67: Oh yeah, well - wow. I looked at North America, and usually no jamming anywhere. Then starting about July 5 (you can go back daily), there's a small spot in the middle of nowhere about 20 miles east of Eagle Pass, Texas, and then spots east of there towards San Antonio. Only spots in all of North America, and consistently since about the 5th of July. Weird. I don't want to go down the rabbit hole of asking more about that... Too bad the war zone is blacked out. I was thinking maybe it could be about the Chinese owned property in that area, but it’s west of Eagle Pass. https://foxsanantonio.com/news/yami-investigates/land-bought-by-former-member-of-chinese-army-near-del-rio-base-raises-red-flag-in-dc |
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Posted: 7/31/2022 1:21:38 AM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By centex_SR-15: I was thinking maybe it could be about the Chinese owned property in that area, but it’s west of Eagle Pass. https://foxsanantonio.com/news/yami-investigates/land-bought-by-former-member-of-chinese-army-near-del-rio-base-raises-red-flag-in-dc The spots correspond to Laughlin, Lackland, and Randolph AFBs. I see that now after reading your linked article. Hmm, only ones in the country. Maybe testing navaids in a denied environment? |
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Posted: 7/31/2022 1:39:00 AM EDT
[#40]
Other US military news of note today in the theater. Not breaking news, but made formal today, 30-Jul:
1) Army V Corps forward HQ in Poland officially renamed “Camp Kosciuzko”: https://www.stripes.com/branches/army/2022-07-28/poznan-poland-army-base-6793321.html 2) 101st Airborne stands up forward HQ and permanent brigade in Romania: https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2022-07-30/101st-airborne-romania-6818590.html |
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Posted: 7/31/2022 2:21:12 AM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jack67: Other US military news of note today in the theater. Not breaking news, but made formal today, 30-Jul: 1) Army V Corps forward HQ in Poland officially renamed “Camp Kosciuzko”: https://www.stripes.com/branches/army/2022-07-28/poznan-poland-army-base-6793321.html 2) 101st Airborne stands up forward HQ and permanent brigade in Romania: https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2022-07-30/101st-airborne-romania-6818590.html Still amazes me how hard the Russians fucked themselves. I keep coming back to the question of whether Putin is a mole. We will never know, but it would be interesting to dig into open source info on his early life. |
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Posted: 7/31/2022 2:23:02 AM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Balu: I'm no expert in this area so this is just speculation but logic says Russia using a nuke or nukes changes the calculus for NATO and the west in general. Nuclear threats being just that, threats, was part of a long standing balance and an understood dynamic. Russia would completely re-write nuclear risk assessments by actually firing one off at Ukraine. At that point a pre-emptive counter strike to decapitate the entire Russian state would not only become a serious consideration but will look like an inevitable move that must be made. Why? Russians just stated that they will consider Ukraine a legitimate target but they also said Brussels and Washington DC are next. If they already fired one off, what keeps them from making good on the next threats? Therefore a massive pre-emptive nuclear strike at all sites of Russian military capability would be the only option left. So, essentially it's suicide for Russia. Hopefully they understand this. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Balu: Originally Posted By stone-age: Now that we are later in the war I wonder what happens if russia does launch 1 nuke. Lets say they pass their fake referendum, declare some region now russian territory, declare that if ukraine tries to kick them out of the region it is an attack on the nation of russia, ukraine tries to kick them out and is looking like they will kick out the russian army, so russia uses 1 tactical nuke. What would the rest of the world actually do? I'm no expert in this area so this is just speculation but logic says Russia using a nuke or nukes changes the calculus for NATO and the west in general. Nuclear threats being just that, threats, was part of a long standing balance and an understood dynamic. Russia would completely re-write nuclear risk assessments by actually firing one off at Ukraine. At that point a pre-emptive counter strike to decapitate the entire Russian state would not only become a serious consideration but will look like an inevitable move that must be made. Why? Russians just stated that they will consider Ukraine a legitimate target but they also said Brussels and Washington DC are next. If they already fired one off, what keeps them from making good on the next threats? Therefore a massive pre-emptive nuclear strike at all sites of Russian military capability would be the only option left. So, essentially it's suicide for Russia. Hopefully they understand this. If we let Russia use one or even more nukes without retaliation of the same or greater then our nuclear deterrent is over. Useless... |
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Posted: 7/31/2022 2:56:52 AM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AROKIE: If we let Russia use one or even more nukes without retaliation of the same or greater then our nuclear deterrent is over. Useless... We and our allies have such a massive, overwhelming force ratio that I think the first response would be to strip them of every conventional weapon base first. Missile attacks on fleet and air bases around the world, a couple sunk boomers, Kaliningrad quarantined and notified of annexation, Baikunur leveled, etc. A week of that would be enough without responding in kind. The response can be catastrophic without being nuclear, and I have to think that is the best reply to a tactical, non-strategic first use. Putin has proven to be Hitler-level ignorant and mis-calculating, but I don’t think he’s Götterdämmerung-level insane like Hitler, nor does he command loyalty of those around him to enable that. |
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USA
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Posted: 7/31/2022 5:09:04 AM EDT
[#44]
recent Russian doctrine on what would result in a nuclear strike: (doesn't specify tactical or strategic, that must be a decision they make) 1. any ballistic missile attack on Russian territory, or their allies, not necessarily nuclear 2. the use of nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons against Russia or its allies 3. any attack on critical government or military sites that would compromise the capability of their nuclear forces 4. any aggression that puts the existence of Russia in jeopardy. source: https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2021/04/29/russian_nuclear_doctrine_force_expansion_and_nuclear_deterrence_774957.html note that they said if their "nuclear forces" are compromised, not "strategic nuclear forces". that poses two problems. one, it includes their tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield. two, practically all of their missile systems and lots of big artillery are dual capable between conventional and nuclear warheads. a tactical nuke from the Russians would not result in an immediate nuclear response from NATO, according to one analyst who was asked. it is a large threshold, one that NATO takes very seriously. he thinks NATO would respond with a "fairly massive" conventional attack on Russian tactical nuke facilities, making it clear that further provocation would result in all-out war. that is about the same thing as Russia's "escalate to de-escalate" tactic. keep in mind, however, that the Russian doctrine outlined above calls for a nuclear response to any attack on its nuclear forces. WWIII and nuclear doomsday would be up to Russia at that point. |
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Posted: 7/31/2022 5:55:08 AM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By TTTSNB: recent Russian doctrine on what would result in a nuclear strike: (doesn't specify tactical or strategic, that must be a decision they make) 1. any ballistic missile attack on Russian territory, or their allies, not necessarily nuclear 2. the use of nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons against Russia or its allies 3. any attack on critical government or military sites that would compromise the capability of their nuclear forces 4. any aggression that puts the existence of Russia in jeopardy. source: https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2021/04/29/russian_nuclear_doctrine_force_expansion_and_nuclear_deterrence_774957.html note that they said if their "nuclear forces" are compromised, not "strategic nuclear forces". that poses two problems. one, it includes their tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield. two, practically all of their missile systems and lots of big artillery are dual capable between conventional and nuclear warheads. a tactical nuke from the Russians would not result in an immediate nuclear response from NATO, according to one analyst who was asked. it is a large threshold, one that NATO takes very seriously. he thinks NATO would respond with a "fairly massive" conventional attack on Russian tactical nuke facilities, making it clear that further provocation would result in all-out war. that is about the same thing as Russia's "escalate to de-escalate" tactic. keep in mind, however, that the Russian doctrine outlined above calls for a nuclear response to any attack on its nuclear forces. WWIII and nuclear doomsday would be up to Russia at that point. WW3 is already up to Russia and written policy has nothing to do with it. Putin and his clique are lawless just as the Soviets were lawless. If they believe an action will help them survive and conquer then it will be deemed lawful. In this case bolloxing an illegal and unjust war of aggression badly enough has put the Russian state in jeopardy; ergo they can kill everyone. FUCK THEM. |
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Posted: 7/31/2022 8:08:07 AM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#46]
Recent strikes on a Tunguska air defense and other Russian infantry and equipment by the 40th artillery brigade. Lots of drone coverage and also good thermal night vision drone coverage of the SAM getting hit.
Dates on the strikes is July 27th so pretty recent. https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/wclp0h/soldiers_of_ukrainian_40th_separate_artillery/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3 SBU's Alpha group doing drone strikes on Russian equipment and Stugna-P kills on Russian armor. https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/wclufa/sbus_alpha_group_dropping_munitions_on_russian/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3 |
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Posted: 7/31/2022 8:18:05 AM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#47]
28 minutes ago as of this post, just East of Khearson
The Russian's claimed a food aid convoy was hit yesterday, but photos and videos are showing ordinance going off, as well as unexploded ordinance near the vehicles (circled items and crates) The trucks exploding with secondaries. — Special Kherson Cat \uD83D\uDC08\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 (@bayraktar_1love) July 30, 2022 aftermath: 
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/drone-attack-at-russia-s-black-sea-fleet-hq-in-sevastopol/ The headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation in Sevastopol was attacked with a drone. The head of the occupation administration of the Ukrainian city Mikhail Razvozhayev reported about this. According to him, five employees of the fleet headquarters had been injured in the incident, but no casualties reported. All festive events in honor of the Navy Day in Sevastopol had been canceled. Razvozhayev released several photos from the scene. However, they show nothing of substance, except for broken window glass. The Ukrainian party is yet to comment on the attack. |
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MN, USA
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Posted: 7/31/2022 8:25:55 AM EDT
[#48]
"Russian food aid convoy"
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Posted: 7/31/2022 8:30:10 AM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stgdz: "Russian food aid convoy" Any time you hear that, it's time to investigate further.
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Posted: 7/31/2022 8:31:43 AM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: As infuriating as these attacks from Belarus must be, they are of little to no military value. These attacks only happen to let Lukashenko do enough to placate Putin while keeping Belarus out of the war and himself in power. Ultimately one of two things will happen - there will be a color revolution once Russia is too weak to do anything about it, or Lukashenko will flip sides when Russia is too weak to do anything about it. Until then Ukraine can accept the minimal damages and deaths that come from these attacks. The alternative is active involvement from Belarus, which neither Ukraine nor (I suspect) Belarus wants. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott: Originally Posted By Freiheit8472: Would like to see some HIMARS strikes in Belarus now with those missile launches. Is there any reasoning to NOT do that? Like if they hit them Belarus leadership could send their puny military in as an act of self defense rather than expend more political capital doing unprovoked? (It’s all Bs anyway since they’re launching missiles… but it’d be so like them to blame Ukraine for retaliating) The Ukrainians need to not do anything that would cause the Belarusian public to support their leadership, which is on the verge of falling already. As infuriating as these attacks from Belarus must be, they are of little to no military value. These attacks only happen to let Lukashenko do enough to placate Putin while keeping Belarus out of the war and himself in power. Ultimately one of two things will happen - there will be a color revolution once Russia is too weak to do anything about it, or Lukashenko will flip sides when Russia is too weak to do anything about it. Until then Ukraine can accept the minimal damages and deaths that come from these attacks. The alternative is active involvement from Belarus, which neither Ukraine nor (I suspect) Belarus wants. I’m in your boat Capta, but my friend says Belorussia just completed two new roads onto Ukraine border, tank capable river crossings, fill materials all that. He said 10k are staged in one area right now so he is concerned. They can’t hit them proactively and watching them build up everyday is concerning. |
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