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Posted: 1/6/2023 1:53:33 PM EST
[#1]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FlzyifWakAIcMXj?format=jpg&name=900x900
Video in tweet
If there is a large VDV contingent there - is that a “army vs Wagner” of who can achieve goals. |
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Posted: 1/6/2023 1:55:29 PM EST
[#2]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: https://apnews.com/article/biden-united-states-government-olaf-scholz-germany-84fc07af2356d8d02adec2e987d06c0a Since Germany is apparently following the US lead with a Patriot battery, here’s a few thoughts/speculations: -This IMO continues to represent the slow ratcheting up of UA capabilities, and pressure on Russia -The timing could well be linked to the depletion of Russian missile stockpiles. Obviously Russia would love to kill a Patriot battery, but their now critically low missile stock means that they probably cannot send an overwhelming attack anymore. Thus Patriot should be able to clean up the now lower rate of missile attacks with much less threat to itself. -Total speculation on my part, but IMO a big unspoken reason for Patriot in Ukraine is to provide an anti-nuke defense. NATO and Ukraine obviously take the nuclear threat seriously, and the Allies likely perceive that Russia’s situation will become more dire in 2023, leading to a more significant nuclear threat. -The US will probably insist on Patriot being stationed where its range doesn’t significantly extend into Russia. Ukraine will probably not want to risk it close to the front where tactical weapons can reach it, even though this would give them much better AA coverage. Kiev is a no-brainer. But the second battery? Dnipro, perhaps. Zaporizhia is too close to the front and Kharkiv is too close to Russia. Dnipro lets them keep an eye on both the eastern front and the southern front, while protecting Zaporizhia as well. -A third battery would be ideal, with the first two being in Kiev and Dnipro, this one could be in Mikolaiv, protecting both Odessa and Kherson. This would let them keep an eye on Crimea and the Black Sea approach. I agree. After all, the reason for the existing patriot batteries in Poland and elsewhere in Europe was for that purpose. I think this move likely pushes out that envelope to cover the Western part of Ukraine. We had this discussion a thousand (or two) pages ago and I think we agreed that IF Russia fires off a nuke, it would have to be on some missile and even then, the chance of it being shot down is a big risk. I imagined the Tom Clansey-esq story of some Ukrainian farmer digging up a nuke armed missile in some field a few years from now. |
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USA
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Posted: 1/6/2023 1:56:29 PM EST
[#3]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime:
Music choices of on their video choices still seem surreal. Very good, but surreal. Wish they'd get something other than meat grinder duty at some point. |
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Posted: 1/6/2023 1:56:46 PM EST
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Finslayer83: If there is a large VDV contingent there - is that a “army vs Wagner” of who can achieve goals. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Finslayer83: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FlzyifWakAIcMXj?format=jpg&name=900x900
Video in tweet
If there is a large VDV contingent there - is that a “army vs Wagner” of who can achieve goals. I think if this is true your correct. We could be seeing direct competition between the two groups for an objective. I'm in for the Ukrainian drone videos of heavy artillery smashing them both soon. |
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Posted: 1/6/2023 2:02:11 PM EST
[Last Edit: SoCalExile]
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Dominion21: This is the point: nearly all Russian tanks encountered in Ukraine are T-72 variants (soon to be backed up by refurbed T-62s). Most of these lack functioning thermal sights, due to poor manufacture, lack of maintenance, and THEFT. Lack of training and lack of refresher training further dooms the few Russian tanks with functioning thermals. The US military officers in this thread are largely basing their predictions on: - assuming Russia is fielding only T-90 or better, and - assuming Russian tank crew training is equal or superior to our and maximizes the tanks full capabilities and - assuming the best Russian tank commanders are in charge and fully committed to the fight. None of these assumptions have proven true in Ukraine. The tanks lack thermals, the crews are incompetent, and the leadership is absent in battle. These facts are why I believe the Bradleys will have an oversize impact going head to head against Russian armor. Moreover, as pointed out above: Ukraine already has more MBTs than they need or can even handle. Due to western military advice, they wisely hold their MBTs in reserve; used them to assault Kherson, and put them back into hiding. The Bradleys can join the fight on day 1, and prevail over the real, actual, threats they are likely to encounter in Ukraine (not theoretical foes based on assumptions). |
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Posted: 1/6/2023 2:08:24 PM EST
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: I think this is the way it's being handled, there's a lot of chatter from other NATO countries saying there's a new commitment being done for support of Ukraine. The hint is that as crews are trained, there will be more aid installments including additional IFV's from the various countries. If we send 50 trained Bradley crews every month to March we could have 150 vehicles sent on our end. I'll be curious to see if that is what they do. Other talk is that this opens to door for actual NATO tanks being supplied to Ukraine, and even longer range missile systems like ATACMS. I'm not writing anything off yet after seeing what they are getting now. I agree. Everything else has been given in dribs and drabs and once the UA shows it can use something effectively, the shipments continue. It's also possible that the first 50 Brads will be just to train up the crews and will not see action for a while. |
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Posted: 1/6/2023 2:16:29 PM EST
[#7]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: I read somewhere that Russian tankers of WWII had a maneuver where once they were over a trench or fighting position, they would basically do a donutty running in a tight circle and grinding down into the dirt. It's probably a standard maneuver for all tankers. |
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WI, USA
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Posted: 1/6/2023 2:23:22 PM EST
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By _disconnector_: It's called "ironing" the trench. Very common and a horrible way for a crunchy to die. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By _disconnector_: Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: I read somewhere that Russian tankers of WWII had a maneuver where once they were over a trench or fighting position, they would basically do a donutty running in a tight circle and grinding down into the dirt. It's probably a standard maneuver for all tankers. Isn't that why they're called "crunchy"?  
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NC, USA
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Posted: 1/6/2023 2:26:24 PM EST
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By _disconnector_: It's called "ironing" the trench. Very common and a horrible way for a crunchy to die. careful not to throw a track |
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FL, USA
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Posted: 1/6/2023 2:29:23 PM EST
[Last Edit: Saltwater-Hillbilly]
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By general_cluster: it is nuts. a friend worked at a US salt production facility, told me that their product was cheaper than topsoil when sold in bulk -- that is to say, literally cheaper than dirt. It is probably the least lucrative mining there is. Then there is gypsum. Basically drywall. $9 a (metric) ton in the US. https://www.statista.com/statistics/219363/wallboard-products-crude-price-in-the-us/ Literally cheaper than dirt. These are some of the least valuable least strategic assets in Ukraine. If he wants them, it's only so he can claim to have gotten them. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By general_cluster: Originally Posted By Jack67: Here’s another theory: The Battle of Bahkmut is all about the salt. Sort of a real-life “Dune.”
Personally, I think that’s nuts, but Reuters says they have a White House source pushing that narrative. (Behind a paywall) https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-thinks-putin-ally-prigozhin-wants-control-salt-gypsum-mines-near-bakhmut-2023-01-05/ it is nuts. a friend worked at a US salt production facility, told me that their product was cheaper than topsoil when sold in bulk -- that is to say, literally cheaper than dirt. It is probably the least lucrative mining there is. Then there is gypsum. Basically drywall. $9 a (metric) ton in the US. https://www.statista.com/statistics/219363/wallboard-products-crude-price-in-the-us/ Literally cheaper than dirt. These are some of the least valuable least strategic assets in Ukraine. If he wants them, it's only so he can claim to have gotten them. I was told some years ago (not sure if it is still true) that Gypsum is almost always transported by rail and barge because, due to the bulk + the low price per ton, it is nearly impossible to economically ship it in bulk by truck over long distances. |
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Posted: 1/6/2023 2:32:02 PM EST
[#11]
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Posted: 1/6/2023 2:32:52 PM EST
[#12]
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Posted: 1/6/2023 2:46:12 PM EST
[#13]
Rusnya went to the Artyomsol plant in Soledar. 48.6908, 38.0722 
  Original video
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FL, USA
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Posted: 1/6/2023 2:47:59 PM EST
[#14]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By general_cluster: TIL that dental school must not be that difficult. I'll put him the mental file right next to Don Jr. and MTG. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By general_cluster: Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Not that anybody needs a reminder, but intelligence and discernment are not required to be a member of the US Congress
TIL that dental school must not be that difficult. I'll put him the mental file right next to Don Jr. and MTG. I was thinking it might be more an issue of the potent and high-quality pharmaceuticals available for use in dentistry  The reality though is that two of the major weaknesses of modern Western Civilization are: 1) It's reliance on the Greek ethical model over that of the Judeo-Christian model (aka, the "Noble Lie" and other cut-outs to avoid adhering to objective moral standards), and 2) That it is based on the flawed premise that intelligence + academic attainment = morality + understanding. (Some of the most evil SOBs in History and/or their chief minions were among the most educated).
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Posted: 1/6/2023 3:00:37 PM EST
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By jhereg: I could see Putin using nukes if it appears certain the war is lost and he looks likely to lose power or end up dead. What would he have to lose? It's not like he cares about his people and he cares about the rest of the world even less. Agree. |
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Posted: 1/6/2023 3:01:52 PM EST
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By fadedsun: There are tons of soviet era MBTs out there for the taking that haven't been utilized. Cyprus Egypt Israel (Rough shape) Poland (still has PT91s) We can have our own "Ringtausch" program going like the germans and send our own kit for soviet stuff to backfill Ukrainian formations. Morocco has T-72s to get. Vietnam has T-90s and if the west was smart enough to make a medium weight we could trade. They’ll kill Chinese when the time comes. |
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FL, USA
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Posted: 1/6/2023 3:02:03 PM EST
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By _disconnector_: It's called "ironing" the trench. Very common and a horrible way for a crunchy to die. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By _disconnector_: Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: I read somewhere that Russian tankers of WWII had a maneuver where once they were over a trench or fighting position, they would basically do a donutty running in a tight circle and grinding down into the dirt. It's probably a standard maneuver for all tankers. Very common use of a Tanks weight and mobility. Many Japanese on Pacific Islands did the Zen thing and became one with their pillbox or dugout when 37-42 tons of combat-loaded Sherman did a pivot-steer on top of them. In both Vietnam and ODS, this tactic was not infrequent when there were a few holdouts in dug-in positions who failed to either surrender or "git while the gittin' was good". There are risks and drawbacks to using a tank in this fashion, but a skilled crew can make it look easy. |
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Posted: 1/6/2023 3:03:15 PM EST
[#18]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By jungatheart: Agree. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By jungatheart: Originally Posted By jhereg: I could see Putin using nukes if it appears certain the war is lost and he looks likely to lose power or end up dead. What would he have to lose? It's not like he cares about his people and he cares about the rest of the world even less. Agree. Which means it might make sense to give him some option to step down and leave Russia to save himself and at least a good portion of his fortune. It might cause problems later w/ him coming back or trying to run things from exile, but it would give him a way out without burning the world down. |
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USA
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Posted: 1/6/2023 3:06:48 PM EST
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By jhereg: Which means it might make sense to give him some option to step down and leave Russia to save himself and at least a good portion of his fortune. It might cause problems later w/ him coming back or trying to run things from exile, but it would give him a way out without burning the world down. Isn't he supposed to be dying from cancer or something |
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Posted: 1/6/2023 3:10:48 PM EST
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Kingsmen: Isn't he supposed to be dying from cancer or something Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Kingsmen: Originally Posted By jhereg: Which means it might make sense to give him some option to step down and leave Russia to save himself and at least a good portion of his fortune. It might cause problems later w/ him coming back or trying to run things from exile, but it would give him a way out without burning the world down. Isn't he supposed to be dying from cancer or something Russia IS a cancer. So yes. |
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Posted: 1/6/2023 3:11:39 PM EST
[#21]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By jhereg: Which means it might make sense to give him some option to step down and leave Russia to save himself and at least a good portion of his fortune. It might cause problems later w/ him coming back or trying to run things from exile, but it would give him a way out without burning the world down. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By jhereg: Originally Posted By jungatheart: Originally Posted By jhereg: I could see Putin using nukes if it appears certain the war is lost and he looks likely to lose power or end up dead. What would he have to lose? It's not like he cares about his people and he cares about the rest of the world even less. Agree. Which means it might make sense to give him some option to step down and leave Russia to save himself and at least a good portion of his fortune. It might cause problems later w/ him coming back or trying to run things from exile, but it would give him a way out without burning the world down. This sounds good but making deals with the devil is never a winning strategy. |
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Posted: 1/6/2023 3:14:59 PM EST
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Kingsmen: Isn't he supposed to be dying from cancer or something That's always struck me as being wishful thinking, more than anything. |
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Posted: 1/6/2023 3:21:04 PM EST
[#23]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By fervid_dryfire: If there was any place that "deserves" embedded reporters, this would be one. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By fervid_dryfire: Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Originally Posted By SmilingBandit: Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
That's just ugly Ukrainian propaganda, it's more evidence that Ukraine is a Nazi menace. (/sarcasm) I do have a healthy skepticism on these calls. I do believe plenty of the Russian troops would say these things, but it's obviously very easy to manufacture and impossible to verify. It would be worth it to get Reuters, WaPo, AFP or somebody into the listening posts to publicly verify that yes, Ukraine is capturing real cell calls. I don't know if that is happening, but it should. If Ukraine's process could be publicly vetted, it would help the PR war. Ukraine is doing great with the PR/info war, and should continue to improve in this area as well. If there was any place that "deserves" embedded reporters, this would be one. Dude that is a terrible idea for soo many reasons. Embed western reporters into Ukrainian intelligence facilities? Or with troops at frontlines is absolutely a horrible idea. Who needs convincing. I don’t. The Russians won’t see it and would be even more skeptical. I don’t see the positive there? |
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Posted: 1/6/2023 3:21:54 PM EST
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: I am not an expert, I'm a casual observer. I know nothing about battle strategy, training & tactics. But it seems to me that this conflict will fundamentally change our TRADOC in a lot of ways. I have a hunch that a lot of smart people are already frantically conducting analyses and assessments, and will do much more as more details become available from AFU. How assets are deployed, positioned, and used is going to be changing a lot as a result of the changes we see from battlefield technology. The other interesting thing here is that, like the wealth, the difference between the haves and the have-nots is getting dramatically bigger. The difference between peer and near-peer conflicts and other conflicts is getting wider. How to mount an invasion of, say Venezuela, versus Japan will take vastly different battlefield tactics. And the proliferation of technology also is a game changer. Cheap, high-tech drones are being produced in places that aren't commonly thought of as top-rate industrial powers (see Iran, Turkey). They don't have to meet US concepts of "mil-spec" to be effective on the battlefield. I feel like we're watching fundamental changes coming into play, just as in the Crimean War and WWI. I wish Sylvan were in this thread. Agreed 100%. This is a unique conflict not just in size (biggest in Europe since WWII) but also involving Russia directly and not just in COIN like A-stan in '78 but testing the RU concepts of battle. A LOT of RU and Western systems are getting "evaluated" hard. Lots of concepts are being tested like the effectiveness of forced conscription in a 21 century peer conflict and invading a near peer country who has access to Western intel and knows what is coming and when. What we (they) are seeing and learning will dictate the direction for many decades in the future. |
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Posted: 1/6/2023 3:22:50 PM EST
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By gentlemanfarmer: Dude that is a terrible idea for soo many reasons. Embed western reporters into Ukrainian intelligence facilities? Or with troops at frontlines is absolutely a horrible idea. Who needs convincing. I don’t. The Russians won’t see it and would be even more skeptical. I don’t see the positive there? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By gentlemanfarmer: Originally Posted By fervid_dryfire: Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Originally Posted By SmilingBandit: Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
That's just ugly Ukrainian propaganda, it's more evidence that Ukraine is a Nazi menace. (/sarcasm) I do have a healthy skepticism on these calls. I do believe plenty of the Russian troops would say these things, but it's obviously very easy to manufacture and impossible to verify. It would be worth it to get Reuters, WaPo, AFP or somebody into the listening posts to publicly verify that yes, Ukraine is capturing real cell calls. I don't know if that is happening, but it should. If Ukraine's process could be publicly vetted, it would help the PR war. Ukraine is doing great with the PR/info war, and should continue to improve in this area as well. If there was any place that "deserves" embedded reporters, this would be one. Dude that is a terrible idea for soo many reasons. Embed western reporters into Ukrainian intelligence facilities? Or with troops at frontlines is absolutely a horrible idea. Who needs convincing. I don’t. The Russians won’t see it and would be even more skeptical. I don’t see the positive there? *nods in Geraldo* |
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CA, USA
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Posted: 1/6/2023 3:26:16 PM EST
[Last Edit: 74HC]
[#26]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By fadedsun: There are tons of soviet era MBTs out there for the taking that haven't been utilized. Cyprus Egypt Israel (Rough shape) Poland (still has PT91s) We can have our own "Ringtausch" program going like the germans and send our own kit for soviet stuff to backfill Ukrainian formations. Egypt has been growing their relationship with russia for years now, and even hold joint military exercises. I don't see them helping Ukraine much as they are not willing to throw away their relationship. Israel has been taking a back seat on this one as to not inflame war by their neighbors. Survival of their country is their priority. Poland, still has to feel they're on the menu after Ukraine. They are not going to give up MBTs unless there are replacements. Their view is that other NATO countries not on the front line (ehm, Germany) should do more. In short, the world is still a dangerous place not much different than the 50's to the 70's. People wrongly assume the opposite. |
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Posted: 1/6/2023 3:26:44 PM EST
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stone-age: Because lots of people are afraid we are rushing towards WW3 as we increase our participation in this conflict. I believe that fear is driving the decisions more than greed or power. The global elite cabal could make money in/off Ukraine regardless of who "controls' it. I think they are playing defensively, hoping the world doesn't blow up. Also, having a proud, united, nationalistic Ukraine is not a best case for the globalists which may be another reason for the foot dragging. |
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FL, USA
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Posted: 1/6/2023 3:27:25 PM EST
[Last Edit: Saltwater-Hillbilly]
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By jhereg: Which means it might make sense to give him some option to step down and leave Russia to save himself and at least a good portion of his fortune. It might cause problems later w/ him coming back or trying to run things from exile, but it would give him a way out without burning the world down. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By jhereg: Originally Posted By jungatheart: Originally Posted By jhereg: I could see Putin using nukes if it appears certain the war is lost and he looks likely to lose power or end up dead. What would he have to lose? It's not like he cares about his people and he cares about the rest of the world even less. Agree. Which means it might make sense to give him some option to step down and leave Russia to save himself and at least a good portion of his fortune. It might cause problems later w/ him coming back or trying to run things from exile, but it would give him a way out without burning the world down. My assessment is that Putin cannot realistically step down and expect any type of return due to several factors: 1) Age/Health; Putin is already over 70 and reportedly in poor health. The only way the powers unleashed by his downfall would be willing to go along with any sort of "Putin Restoration" would be the Marshal Petain/Joe Biden model of ineffectual figurehead for the folks pretending to be in charge, and that his "State Funeral" was already planned at the earliest convenience. 2) Where would he go? Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, etc are all economic basket case regimes that rely on transfers from "Allies" to stay afloat; it would be a matter of "when" and not "if" he would be sold down the river. "Best" Korea is an option only so far as the Kim dictatorship stays afloat. China is an unlikely savior, and both India and South East Asia value their position in the world economy to play stupid games. Additionally, the surviving Russian oligarchs as well as whatever remains of the FSB, GRU, etc, as well as many foreign players all would have strong motives to ensure Putin got Epstined" with haste. Of course, if he opens canned sunshine, he almost certainly simultaneously signs his own death certificate. Putin's only real option at this point is to "stay the course" and pray Russia hold together long enough that he somehow comes out on "top", whatever that looks like. |
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Posted: 1/6/2023 3:33:07 PM EST
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By sq40: It seems that there has been a lot less talk of Nuclear weapons as of late. I'm not sure what that's a sign of. Remembering Putin at the beginning of this, sitting at a giant table 20' away from his generals because of his fear of Covid, last week the pictures published showing that he reuses people in different costumes for his photo ops and that he didn't even attempt to match Zelenskyy's visit to Bakhmut I don't think he's as ready to die in a nuclear war as the propaganda Russia puts out says. |
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Posted: 1/6/2023 3:34:26 PM EST
[Last Edit: Erno86]
[#30]
A couple of interesting and informative Ukrinform war videos:
With "CC" & "Auto Translate" available....  ?? ???????? ?????? ?????-????????? ??? ?????????  ??????????? ??????? ????????? ??? ?????? 83 ?????????? 105 ??? ??? ? ????????? |
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Posted: 1/6/2023 3:36:37 PM EST
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime:
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KS, USA
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Posted: 1/6/2023 3:39:26 PM EST
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast: That's always struck me as being wishful thinking, more than anything. I spent a decade being told by CIA officers that Bin Laden was going to die any day because he couldn't fit a kidney dialysis machine in a cave. Same with the big Mullah Muckymuck of Iran...According to Langley he's been dying of stage 4 cancer since 2010. |
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Posted: 1/6/2023 3:40:18 PM EST
[#33]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlabamaFan64: And they may be right, but early non-intervention in the late 1930s arguably led to a world war. Some of these situations, you're damned if you do, damned if you don't while the situation is going on. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlabamaFan64: Originally Posted By stone-age: Originally Posted By Aikibiker: Why do you think biden has been holding back so much. How many Bradley's do we still have in active service? We could easily give the Ukrainians 2-300 out of storage. Same for F-16's and even F-15's I want to see the Ukrainians utterly destroy the russians and they could do it with a fraction of our old cast off equipment, but the people in charge are dribbling stuff to them in small batches that just give them enough ability to continue, but not win the war. It is like Vietnam all over again we let brave men suffer and die because they are not adequately supported. I hope it will change. Ukraine will eventually win at this rate, but it will take years at this rate. If we fully supported them it would be over in a year or less. The global elite love war because they can make a ton of money at it. Because lots of people are afraid we are rushing towards WW3 as we increase our participation in this conflict. And they may be right, but early non-intervention in the late 1930s arguably led to a world war. Some of these situations, you're damned if you do, damned if you don't while the situation is going on. Sometimes you have to kick the other guy in the nuts so he'll leave you alone and stop being a dickweed. |
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Posted: 1/6/2023 3:41:11 PM EST
[#34]
Did the guy who moved to Russia every show up back here after he went radio silent ?
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Posted: 1/6/2023 3:41:59 PM EST
[Last Edit: CleverNickname]
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Visible ID on Ukrainian aircraft and helicopters is, vivid. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FlyjY8VWAAEqIr5?format=jpg&name=medium https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FlyjIaPWAAAfboG?format=jpg&name=medium It's better than putting anime all over their helicopters like the JSDF has done.  Attached File Attached File |
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WI, USA
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Posted: 1/6/2023 3:43:12 PM EST
[#36]
Details of new $3 billion aid package released..
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Posted: 1/6/2023 3:44:30 PM EST
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Waldo: Salt has a lot of industrial uses. A big one is the production of chlorine and caustic soda. But it's so plentiful that I'd have a real hard time believing Russia is fighting over it.  Yeah. Salt and gypsun may be cheap and plentiful in the USA but maybe not in Russia. I have no idea. Maybe has zero to do with the Bakhmut push. |
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Posted: 1/6/2023 3:46:43 PM EST
[#38]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Mal_means_bad: Is Ukraine assessed as doing all they can at Bakhmut to hold on by their fingernails? I'm hoping they're feigning strain to the limit and are using it as bait to draw in Russian resources from other parts of the front where they plan to launch their offensive(s). They've had resources to spare for the slow but steady offensive on the Svatove-Kreminna line, so that's encouraging. They keep softening up Crimea and Melitopol with strikes that could have more directly relieved the pressure on Bakhmut instead. Ukrainian priorities seem suspect at times, if Bakhmut is really touch and go. I keep thinking it smells like Stalingrad, when Stalin's generals convinced him to feed in just enough men to stave off defeat and keep Paulus stuck in place tantalized by the prize just out of reach while new Russian units were assembled and trained up and launched an encirclement as soon as it got cold. It's hard to coordinate a fighting retreat under pressure. People would be lost in the process. I doubt the UA is bored enough with defending to play such games. Not saying it's impossible but I think it's hard to do intentionally as a "trap". |
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Posted: 1/6/2023 3:48:38 PM EST
[#39]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: Bakhmut Air defense? Not sure what this is.
That 2nd one is from a couple weeks ago where they thought they were advancing on a squad in a trench and found a tank-reinforced platoon or company instead. |
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Posted: 1/6/2023 3:52:41 PM EST
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Finally a link that worked for me. Very interesting. Now we know that the min. arming distance for the RU 125 Frag shell is "short"... Once a tank gets into your trench line, it can get very ugly. I read somewhere that Russian tankers of WWII had a maneuver where once they were over a trench or fighting position, they would basically do a donutty running in a tight circle and grinding down into the dirt. It's probably a standard maneuver for all tankers. That's called pivot steer. It might work on bare ground, but it is honestly a terrible idea on most soil and is likely to result in thrown track and a stranded tank. That is not even considering a trench line, which can get a tank stuck even more easily than that. The fact that the Russians don't appear to have had any c-wire, any RPGs or other AT rockets, or even been aware that a lone Ukrainian tank decided to Leroy Jenkins their trench line is indicative of VERY poor training and equipping.  I would love to hear the full story, because that TC would be out of a job as soon as he got back from a stunt like that if I was his boss. 
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Posted: 1/6/2023 3:53:48 PM EST
[Last Edit: gentlemanfarmer]
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Tiberius: Keep in mind that Russia is literally ruled by a gang of thieves…..it’s entirely plausible that Prigozhin wants to add to his business empire. Another Siloviki stole a huge amount of farmland in occupied territory. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Tiberius: Originally Posted By Jack67: Here’s another theory: The Battle of Bahkmut is all about the salt. Sort of a real-life “Dune.”
Personally, I think that’s nuts, but Reuters says they have a White House source pushing that narrative. (Behind a paywall) https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-thinks-putin-ally-prigozhin-wants-control-salt-gypsum-mines-near-bakhmut-2023-01-05/ Keep in mind that Russia is literally ruled by a gang of thieves…..it’s entirely plausible that Prigozhin wants to add to his business empire. Another Siloviki stole a huge amount of farmland in occupied territory. It’s not the salt so much as what’s under the salt. Could be a minor factor, selling designer salt in Russia but I’d say it’s underground tunnels and future natural gas contracts. It’s also just a place that holds key glocs |
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Posted: 1/6/2023 3:59:28 PM EST
[#42]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By SoCalExile: I'm not arguing against giving them Bradleys. I'm talking about M60s and I'm saying that tossing them stuff as outdated as the stuff they're fighting isn't a net gain when there are better options. Not all of the Russian stuff has been looted, either. Even then, we should be giving the Ukrainians stuff that gives them an edge rather than parity with their enemy. If you want to give them M60s then they best be modern updated versions with thermals, and Turkey isn't going to give them theirs. The thing that people forget, is that some friendly country has to be willing and able to TRAIN on whatever we donate. Leo IIs and Abrams aren't just the best idea because they are more modern, but because there is training infrastructure to support them. Who the hell knows how to operate and maintain an M60 anymore? Too few and too old, sorry but it's true.Sending Ukrainians trainees to the field on the fly is a waste of time and gas and ammo. They would start in the motor pool and classroom, and then spend several weeks in gunnery simulators and collective training sims. Aside from Turkey, you then after to look at the size of the countries offering help; Poland is probably the next best able in Europe to do that (even if other countries donated their Leo IIs, they probably don't have enough people to train others). |
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FL, USA
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Posted: 1/6/2023 4:01:31 PM EST
[Last Edit: Saltwater-Hillbilly]
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By m00ler03: Details of new $3 billion aid package released..
I guess the Ukes seem to like both the MRAPs and M113s we sent earlier. Another 100 or so M113s that won't be range targets at Fort Stewart or Fort Bliss. Also noticed there are more 155 SPGs, which I assume are M109-series of some flavor. |
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Posted: 1/6/2023 4:03:32 PM EST
[Last Edit: gentlemanfarmer]
[#44]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: I guess the Ukes seem to like both the MRAPs and M113s we sent earlier. Another 100 or so M113s that won't be range targets at Fort Stewart or Fort Bliss. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: Originally Posted By m00ler03: Details of new $3 billion aid package released..
I guess the Ukes seem to like both the MRAPs and M113s we sent earlier. Another 100 or so M113s that won't be range targets at Fort Stewart or Fort Bliss. Like is a big question when guys are pulling money to buy pickups. They probably get what they get. Pretty sure they’d rather have something else. |
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Posted: 1/6/2023 4:03:56 PM EST
[Last Edit: DonKey153]
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By m00ler03: Details of new $3 billion aid package released..
Eta nm the source says 105mm, not 155 |
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Posted: 1/6/2023 4:05:04 PM EST
[#46]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CleverNickname: It's better than putting anime all over their helicopters like the JSDF has done. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/13367/j2mjpagmhuebgpezaztm2d2smkipjqpq_hq_png-2662677.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/13367/a9Mpv90_700b_png-2662679.JPG Both are good! Imagine how epic it would be if some orcs got smoked by a Ukrainian Mi-24 with an anime waifu with big ole anime tiddies painted on the side of it. |
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WI, USA
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Posted: 1/6/2023 4:07:39 PM EST
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By jungatheart: Agree. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By jungatheart: Originally Posted By jhereg: I could see Putin using nukes if it appears certain the war is lost and he looks likely to lose power or end up dead. What would he have to lose? It's not like he cares about his people and he cares about the rest of the world even less. Agree. I've heard of the viewpoint that if there is no Russia, the rest of the world need not exist, that the world must have Russia in it, better to destroy the whole world than to lose Russia. Pretty sure several of the people on the street in those 1420 videos have said this. |
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Posted: 1/6/2023 4:07:48 PM EST
[Last Edit: sq40]
[#48]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By jhereg: Which means it might make sense to give him some option to step down and leave Russia to save himself and at least a good portion of his fortune. It might cause problems later w/ him coming back or trying to run things from exile, but it would give him a way out without burning the world down. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By jhereg: Originally Posted By jungatheart: Originally Posted By jhereg: I could see Putin using nukes if it appears certain the war is lost and he looks likely to lose power or end up dead. What would he have to lose? It's not like he cares about his people and he cares about the rest of the world even less. Agree. Which means it might make sense to give him some option to step down and leave Russia to save himself and at least a good portion of his fortune. It might cause problems later w/ him coming back or trying to run things from exile, but it would give him a way out without burning the world down. Best case… killed by his staff. Ideally, war crimes trial and punishment. But that will never happen, so Exile would be an option. And… if he becomes a problem again, the CIA can take care if him. |
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Posted: 1/6/2023 4:12:22 PM EST
[#49]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By centex_SR-15: Remembering Putin at the beginning of this, sitting at a giant table 20' away from his generals because of his fear of Covid, last week the pictures published showing that he reuses people in different costumes for his photo ops and that he didn't even attempt to match Zelenskyy's visit to Bakhmut I don't think he's as ready to die in a nuclear war as the propaganda Russia puts out says. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By centex_SR-15: Originally Posted By sq40: It seems that there has been a lot less talk of Nuclear weapons as of late. I'm not sure what that's a sign of. Remembering Putin at the beginning of this, sitting at a giant table 20' away from his generals because of his fear of Covid, last week the pictures published showing that he reuses people in different costumes for his photo ops and that he didn't even attempt to match Zelenskyy's visit to Bakhmut I don't think he's as ready to die in a nuclear war as the propaganda Russia puts out says. I agree, he is a textbook Narcissist. |
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WY, USA
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Posted: 1/6/2023 4:13:34 PM EST
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By jhereg: Which means it might make sense to give him some option to step down and leave Russia to save himself and at least a good portion of his fortune. It might cause problems later w/ him coming back or trying to run things from exile, but it would give him a way out without burning the world down. I've heard that Saint Helena is nice this time of year. |
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