Warning

 

Close

Confirm Action

Are you sure you wish to do this?

Confirm Cancel
BCM
User Panel

OFFICIAL Russo-Ukrainian War (Page 3457 of 5592)
Page / 5592
You Must Be Logged In To Vote

Link Posted: 2/6/2023 11:46:17 AM EDT
[#1]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Easterner:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZIhRHSXtyU

Ukrainian movie that came out last year based on the 2014 invasion. I haven't seen it yet but i see it made its way to Netflix with subtitles.

View Quote

that looks pretty good. I'll check that out this week
Link Posted: 2/6/2023 11:50:55 AM EDT
[#2]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By trapsh00ter99:
It seems just capturing either Melitopol or Mariupol in the next 6 months would be highest reasonable expectations.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By trapsh00ter99:
Originally Posted By m35ben:
How near future are you talking. It going to be difficult to take Crimea in the next 6 months in my guess.
It seems just capturing either Melitopol or Mariupol in the next 6 months would be highest reasonable expectations.


Capturing those puts crimea in a less tenable position than Kherson was in. Especially if GLOC’s from Kerch bridge and the ferry location are under fire control from precision fires.

Russias best bet to keep crimea was to avoid a situation where the world decided to assist Ukraine with taking it back. Provided no change in global resolve, it’s basically a done deal if Russia can’t hold the mainland.
Link Posted: 2/6/2023 11:58:15 AM EDT
[#3]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By MFP_4073:


sadly i don't believe Ukraine has the command and control capability to coordinate a large assault like that.   perhaps i'm wrong.  but an 'american style' breakthrough using the equivalent of 4 to 6 'full strength' Brigade teams is outside their capability.  and then on top of that the ability to coordinate their effective movements / logistics.  

i was reviewing the numbers of what Ukraine had at the beginning of this war and subtracting out the 'combat losses' from the Oryx site and it doesn't look promising.  granted that's hard because the numbers vary so widely.  i played around with a mock penetration attack of ~50 miles (similar to our thunder Run to Baghdad) to divide the Russian front with a spear point down to Mariupol.  cut off the entire front into two pieces.  i could not find a way to make that happen successfully with no air support, helicopters, ADA etc.

i am very pro-Ukraine in mindset -- but the best at this point i'm thinking is 'localized' wins through attrition largely related to Russia's horrendous tactics.   just grinding casualties.

not trying to be a defeatist.  Ukraine has performed extremely well to blunt the invasion.   but holding that line with heavy casualties while simultaneously amassing the combat power for a major counter-offensive?  with no air support?   its obvious why Zelensky has asked for 300+ M1s and Bradleys.
View Quote



Additionally, how do you do major tank offensive operations without clear air superiority?
Link Posted: 2/6/2023 12:06:06 PM EDT
[#4]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Capta:

Just think what ONE drone could do.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History



Several years ago a large arms warehouse in I believe Lithuania  exploded.

It was generally thought that a thermite grenade dropped from a Russian drone was responsible.

Pretty cheap and simple way of destroying millions of dollars of ordnance.
Link Posted: 2/6/2023 12:06:25 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest] [#5]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By johnh57:



Additionally, how do you do major tank offensive operations without clear air superiority?
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By johnh57:
Originally Posted By MFP_4073:


sadly i don't believe Ukraine has the command and control capability to coordinate a large assault like that.   perhaps i'm wrong.  but an 'american style' breakthrough using the equivalent of 4 to 6 'full strength' Brigade teams is outside their capability.  and then on top of that the ability to coordinate their effective movements / logistics.  

i was reviewing the numbers of what Ukraine had at the beginning of this war and subtracting out the 'combat losses' from the Oryx site and it doesn't look promising.  granted that's hard because the numbers vary so widely.  i played around with a mock penetration attack of ~50 miles (similar to our thunder Run to Baghdad) to divide the Russian front with a spear point down to Mariupol.  cut off the entire front into two pieces.  i could not find a way to make that happen successfully with no air support, helicopters, ADA etc.

i am very pro-Ukraine in mindset -- but the best at this point i'm thinking is 'localized' wins through attrition largely related to Russia's horrendous tactics.   just grinding casualties.

not trying to be a defeatist.  Ukraine has performed extremely well to blunt the invasion.   but holding that line with heavy casualties while simultaneously amassing the combat power for a major counter-offensive?  with no air support?   its obvious why Zelensky has asked for 300+ M1s and Bradleys.



Additionally, how do you do major tank offensive operations without clear air superiority?



You be thankful your enemy doesn't have air superiority either while you have long range fires and can do maneuver at night.

We've seen Russian lines break very suddenly and retreat in panic in some instances.
Link Posted: 2/6/2023 12:08:49 PM EDT
[#6]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By SoCalExile:


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FoQ-K6ZXwAAMAOc?format=jpg

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FoQ-MhZWIAEIskd?format=jpg

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FoQ-OahXgAEaOeq?format=jpg
View Quote

Whatever happened to keeping things on the down low?

Social media points? Bragging rights?

Why let them know?

It's almost as bad as not quietly disposing of a balloon without saying a word as soon as it violates your airspace instead of a public show after 87 thousand amature pictures are posted on InstaBookTikTock.
Link Posted: 2/6/2023 12:32:32 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest] [#7]



Link Posted: 2/6/2023 12:38:07 PM EDT
[#8]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:



View Quote



I see stop drop and roll is not a thing there
Link Posted: 2/6/2023 12:40:46 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest] [#9]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By burnka871:



I see stop drop and roll is not a thing there
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By burnka871:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:






I see stop drop and roll is not a thing there



He may have had the right idea at the time though, as that other tank takes a near direct hit or a mine seconds after he was seen running.
Link Posted: 2/6/2023 12:43:41 PM EDT
[#10]
The russian army offers lots of opportunities for rapid advancement.


Link Posted: 2/6/2023 12:50:46 PM EDT
[#11]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Attachment Attached File
Originally Posted By ludder093:
View Quote

Link Posted: 2/6/2023 12:52:51 PM EDT
[Last Edit: lorazepam] [#12]
I wonder if they are working on claymore ap drones? That seems like a way to deal with open field human waves. Maybe use drones to deploy them, and later remotely detonate them as well.
Link Posted: 2/6/2023 12:59:23 PM EDT
[#13]
Link Posted: 2/6/2023 1:01:01 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest] [#14]
Maybe they saw an opportunity to get rid of their commander?


Link Posted: 2/6/2023 1:01:50 PM EDT
[#15]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By BustinCaps:


Capturing those puts crimea in a less tenable position than Kherson was in. Especially if GLOC's from Kerch bridge and the ferry location are under fire control from precision fires.

Russias best bet to keep crimea was to avoid a situation where the world decided to assist Ukraine with taking it back. Provided no change in global resolve, it's basically a done deal if Russia can't hold the mainland.
View Quote
The hardest thing about Ukraine taking Crimea is also the hardest things that Russia will have to deal with in holding it. Crimea is basically an island, with the largest land connection being 5.6 miles wide. Beyond that is bridge at Chonar, Kerch Bridge, and the .5 mile by 75 mile barrier peninsula.

I think Melitopol is the smarter play than Mariupol, since the large inland water feature to the south would effectively sever the GLOC. I also think the terrain to the west is easier to navigate, and it would be easier to clear the Russians west of Melitopol. Going for Mariupol leaves a larger concentration of enemy on both east and west, increasing risk for failure, and Melitopol still needs dealt with to reach Crimea.

However, without ATACMS or similar, I don't see how an offensive into Crimea can succeed. The 5 mile wide chokepoint is just to small to get an invasion force needed through fast enough. GLSDB are great for the range increase, but the lack enough boom to do anything to bridges. They have less explosive than the M31 for the HIMARS, and we saw how many it took to knock out the Kherson bridge. Both of these will be invaluable in supporting an assault on Crimea, but larger missiles are needed to deal with Kerch.

Explosive weights
GLSDB - 36 lbs
M31 for HIMARS - 51 lbs
ATACMS - 215 lbs
Link Posted: 2/6/2023 1:02:33 PM EDT
[#16]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:



You be thankful your enemy doesn't have air superiority either while you have long range fires and can do maneuver at night.

We've seen Russian lines break very suddenly and retreat in panic in some instances.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Originally Posted By johnh57:
Originally Posted By MFP_4073:


sadly i don't believe Ukraine has the command and control capability to coordinate a large assault like that.   perhaps i'm wrong.  but an 'american style' breakthrough using the equivalent of 4 to 6 'full strength' Brigade teams is outside their capability.  and then on top of that the ability to coordinate their effective movements / logistics.  

i was reviewing the numbers of what Ukraine had at the beginning of this war and subtracting out the 'combat losses' from the Oryx site and it doesn't look promising.  granted that's hard because the numbers vary so widely.  i played around with a mock penetration attack of ~50 miles (similar to our thunder Run to Baghdad) to divide the Russian front with a spear point down to Mariupol.  cut off the entire front into two pieces.  i could not find a way to make that happen successfully with no air support, helicopters, ADA etc.

i am very pro-Ukraine in mindset -- but the best at this point i'm thinking is 'localized' wins through attrition largely related to Russia's horrendous tactics.   just grinding casualties.

not trying to be a defeatist.  Ukraine has performed extremely well to blunt the invasion.   but holding that line with heavy casualties while simultaneously amassing the combat power for a major counter-offensive?  with no air support?   its obvious why Zelensky has asked for 300+ M1s and Bradleys.



Additionally, how do you do major tank offensive operations without clear air superiority?



You be thankful your enemy doesn't have air superiority either while you have long range fires and can do maneuver at night.

We've seen Russian lines break very suddenly and retreat in panic in some instances.

The Kharkiv offensive was something like 8-10 brigades and that was fairly successful.
Link Posted: 2/6/2023 1:05:22 PM EDT
[#17]
Link Posted: 2/6/2023 1:08:21 PM EDT
[#18]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Dracster:

The Kharkiv offensive was something like 8-10 brigades and that was fairly successful.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Dracster:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Originally Posted By johnh57:
Originally Posted By MFP_4073:


sadly i don't believe Ukraine has the command and control capability to coordinate a large assault like that.   perhaps i'm wrong.  but an 'american style' breakthrough using the equivalent of 4 to 6 'full strength' Brigade teams is outside their capability.  and then on top of that the ability to coordinate their effective movements / logistics.  

i was reviewing the numbers of what Ukraine had at the beginning of this war and subtracting out the 'combat losses' from the Oryx site and it doesn't look promising.  granted that's hard because the numbers vary so widely.  i played around with a mock penetration attack of ~50 miles (similar to our thunder Run to Baghdad) to divide the Russian front with a spear point down to Mariupol.  cut off the entire front into two pieces.  i could not find a way to make that happen successfully with no air support, helicopters, ADA etc.

i am very pro-Ukraine in mindset -- but the best at this point i'm thinking is 'localized' wins through attrition largely related to Russia's horrendous tactics.   just grinding casualties.

not trying to be a defeatist.  Ukraine has performed extremely well to blunt the invasion.   but holding that line with heavy casualties while simultaneously amassing the combat power for a major counter-offensive?  with no air support?   its obvious why Zelensky has asked for 300+ M1s and Bradleys.



Additionally, how do you do major tank offensive operations without clear air superiority?



You be thankful your enemy doesn't have air superiority either while you have long range fires and can do maneuver at night.

We've seen Russian lines break very suddenly and retreat in panic in some instances.

The Kharkiv offensive was something like 8-10 brigades and that was fairly successful.



Great point.   Now with more than a few months training, put those guys with the tactics of larger scale maneuver warfare and giving them some very effective and fast tanks and IFV's that see well at night and good communications, and you could see more Kharkiv's in the Spring is what I'm saying.
Link Posted: 2/6/2023 1:11:40 PM EDT
[#19]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By burnka871:



I see stop drop and roll is not a thing there
View Quote
They roll around when drones are dropping grenades on them and run like hell when they are on fire, seems backwards to me  
Link Posted: 2/6/2023 1:19:04 PM EDT
[#20]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Maybe they saw an opportunity to get rid of their commander?


View Quote


Maybe they were hungry too.



Link Posted: 2/6/2023 1:22:24 PM EDT
[#21]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Maybe they saw an opportunity to get rid of their commander?


View Quote


Probably chopping firewood to keep him warm while he rests.
Link Posted: 2/6/2023 1:24:32 PM EDT
[#22]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:



Great point.   Now with more than a few months training, put those guys with the tactics of larger scale maneuver warfare and giving them some very effective and fast tanks and IFV's that see well at night and good communications, and you could see more Kharkiv's in the Spring is what I'm saying.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Originally Posted By Dracster:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Originally Posted By johnh57:
Originally Posted By MFP_4073:


sadly i don't believe Ukraine has the command and control capability to coordinate a large assault like that.   perhaps i'm wrong.  but an 'american style' breakthrough using the equivalent of 4 to 6 'full strength' Brigade teams is outside their capability.  and then on top of that the ability to coordinate their effective movements / logistics.  

i was reviewing the numbers of what Ukraine had at the beginning of this war and subtracting out the 'combat losses' from the Oryx site and it doesn't look promising.  granted that's hard because the numbers vary so widely.  i played around with a mock penetration attack of ~50 miles (similar to our thunder Run to Baghdad) to divide the Russian front with a spear point down to Mariupol.  cut off the entire front into two pieces.  i could not find a way to make that happen successfully with no air support, helicopters, ADA etc.

i am very pro-Ukraine in mindset -- but the best at this point i'm thinking is 'localized' wins through attrition largely related to Russia's horrendous tactics.   just grinding casualties.

not trying to be a defeatist.  Ukraine has performed extremely well to blunt the invasion.   but holding that line with heavy casualties while simultaneously amassing the combat power for a major counter-offensive?  with no air support?   its obvious why Zelensky has asked for 300+ M1s and Bradleys.



Additionally, how do you do major tank offensive operations without clear air superiority?



You be thankful your enemy doesn't have air superiority either while you have long range fires and can do maneuver at night.

We've seen Russian lines break very suddenly and retreat in panic in some instances.

The Kharkiv offensive was something like 8-10 brigades and that was fairly successful.



Great point.   Now with more than a few months training, put those guys with the tactics of larger scale maneuver warfare and giving them some very effective and fast tanks and IFV's that see well at night and good communications, and you could see more Kharkiv's in the Spring is what I'm saying.


There was a mention a couple months ago about the Su-25s (and maybe Hinds) maybe actually having the opportunity to use some of their guided munitions in the near future given the success the UAF has been having with HARMs on Russian SAMs. We might see some actual combined arms stuff in the next UA offensive.
Link Posted: 2/6/2023 1:29:42 PM EDT
[#23]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Circuits:

Does the SDB fit within the payload envelope of a GMLRS launch tube? (227mm). If not, it just doesn't fit.

There has been talk, for GMLRS-ER, of expanding the launcher tube diameter to 254mm, so it may even just be a question of making new pods with large enough launch tubes to fit the GLSDB and fairing within a pod.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Circuits:
Originally Posted By swede1986:
Wouldn't surprise me if all that's lacking in the HIMARS is a software update.

Does the SDB fit within the payload envelope of a GMLRS launch tube? (227mm). If not, it just doesn't fit.

There has been talk, for GMLRS-ER, of expanding the launcher tube diameter to 254mm, so it may even just be a question of making new pods with large enough launch tubes to fit the GLSDB and fairing within a pod.


Dimensionally it'll fit in any of the M270/HIMARS/Chunmoo launchers. I'm not certain how they interface within the launch cells though.
Link Posted: 2/6/2023 1:30:46 PM EDT
[#24]
"Ukrainian military personnel arrived in Great Britain for training on AS90 self-propelled guns"

Attachment Attached File


Attachment Attached File
Link Posted: 2/6/2023 1:31:35 PM EDT
[#25]


Link Posted: 2/6/2023 1:47:21 PM EDT
[#26]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By trapsh00ter99:
The hardest thing about Ukraine taking Crimea is also the hardest things that Russia will have to deal with in holding it. Crimea is basically an island, with the largest land connection being 5.6 miles wide. Beyond that is bridge at Chonar, Kerch Bridge, and the .5 mile by 75 mile barrier peninsula.

I think Melitopol is the smarter play than Mariupol, since the large inland water feature to the south would effectively sever the GLOC. I also think the terrain to the west is easier to navigate, and it would be easier to clear the Russians west of Melitopol. Going for Mariupol leaves a larger concentration of enemy on both east and west, increasing risk for failure, and Melitopol still needs dealt with to reach Crimea.

However, without ATACMS or similar, I don't see how an offensive into Crimea can succeed. The 5 mile wide chokepoint is just to small to get an invasion force needed through fast enough. GLSDB are great for the range increase, but the lack enough boom to do anything to bridges. They have less explosive than the M31 for the HIMARS, and we saw how many it took to knock out the Kherson bridge. Both of these will be invaluable in supporting an assault on Crimea, but larger missiles are needed to deal with Kerch.

Explosive weights
GLSDB - 36 lbs
M31 for HIMARS - 51 lbs
ATACMS - 215 lbs
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By trapsh00ter99:
Originally Posted By BustinCaps:


Capturing those puts crimea in a less tenable position than Kherson was in. Especially if GLOC's from Kerch bridge and the ferry location are under fire control from precision fires.

Russias best bet to keep crimea was to avoid a situation where the world decided to assist Ukraine with taking it back. Provided no change in global resolve, it's basically a done deal if Russia can't hold the mainland.
The hardest thing about Ukraine taking Crimea is also the hardest things that Russia will have to deal with in holding it. Crimea is basically an island, with the largest land connection being 5.6 miles wide. Beyond that is bridge at Chonar, Kerch Bridge, and the .5 mile by 75 mile barrier peninsula.

I think Melitopol is the smarter play than Mariupol, since the large inland water feature to the south would effectively sever the GLOC. I also think the terrain to the west is easier to navigate, and it would be easier to clear the Russians west of Melitopol. Going for Mariupol leaves a larger concentration of enemy on both east and west, increasing risk for failure, and Melitopol still needs dealt with to reach Crimea.

However, without ATACMS or similar, I don't see how an offensive into Crimea can succeed. The 5 mile wide chokepoint is just to small to get an invasion force needed through fast enough. GLSDB are great for the range increase, but the lack enough boom to do anything to bridges. They have less explosive than the M31 for the HIMARS, and we saw how many it took to knock out the Kherson bridge. Both of these will be invaluable in supporting an assault on Crimea, but larger missiles are needed to deal with Kerch.

Explosive weights
GLSDB - 36 lbs
M31 for HIMARS - 51 lbs
ATACMS - 215 lbs

It isn't going to be easy trying to attack through the Perekop Isthmus. The Germans successfully did it in WW2, but the Ukrainians probably don't have a Manstein.
Link Posted: 2/6/2023 1:59:36 PM EDT
[#27]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By tstorms:

It isn't going to be easy trying to attack through the Perekop Isthmus. The Germans successfully did it in WW2, but the Ukrainians probably don't have a Manstein.
View Quote

Nope. They will almost need to lay siege to Crimea, and make the position untenable for the Russians. It will take a massive coordination of precision fires, air strikes, and NSM to even make it possible for a ground invasion.

But if they can cut the GLOC at Melitopol, that same thing making it hard for Ukraine to invade Crimea will make it hard for Russia to hold the area west of Melitopol. I could see where these forces fall back to Crimea.
Link Posted: 2/6/2023 2:03:51 PM EDT
[#28]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By m35ben:
The crack Steven Segal of the ass division
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By m35ben:
The crack Steven Segal of the ass division
fixed
Link Posted: 2/6/2023 2:11:19 PM EDT
[#29]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By 4xGM300m:


Maybe they were hungry too.



View Quote


"Meat is back on the menu boys!" LOTR
Link Posted: 2/6/2023 2:19:50 PM EDT
[#30]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By kpacman:



Several years ago a large arms warehouse in I believe Lithuania  exploded.

It was generally thought that a thermite grenade dropped from a Russian drone was responsible.

Pretty cheap and simple way of destroying millions of dollars of ordnance.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By kpacman:



Several years ago a large arms warehouse in I believe Lithuania  exploded.

It was generally thought that a thermite grenade dropped from a Russian drone was responsible.

Pretty cheap and simple way of destroying millions of dollars of ordnance.


a giant stash of 125mm HEAT rounds
Link Posted: 2/6/2023 2:23:26 PM EDT
[#31]
Link Posted: 2/6/2023 2:23:49 PM EDT
[#32]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By lorazepam:
I wonder if they are working on claymore ap drones? That seems like a way to deal with open field human waves. Maybe use drones to deploy them, and later remotely detonate them as well.
View Quote
You could always fly the drone up and detonate it in the right place/time w/o setting it.
Link Posted: 2/6/2023 2:29:40 PM EDT
[#33]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Maybe they saw an opportunity to get rid of their commander?


View Quote



Link Posted: 2/6/2023 2:30:54 PM EDT
[#34]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:

View Quote

Link Posted: 2/6/2023 2:33:32 PM EDT
[#35]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By UKjohn:
fixed
View Quote
I can go with that too.
Link Posted: 2/6/2023 2:41:21 PM EDT
[#36]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By LesBaer45:

Whatever happened to keeping things on the down low?

Social media points? Bragging rights?

Why let them know?

It's almost as bad as not quietly disposing of a balloon without saying a word as soon as it violates your airspace instead of a public show after 87 thousand amature pictures are posted on InstaBookTikTock.
View Quote

your newsletter please
Link Posted: 2/6/2023 2:43:14 PM EDT
[#37]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By trapsh00ter99:

Nope. They will almost need to lay siege to Crimea, and make the position untenable for the Russians. It will take a massive coordination of precision fires, air strikes, and NSM to even make it possible for a ground invasion.

But if they can cut the GLOC at Melitopol, that same thing making it hard for Ukraine to invade Crimea will make it hard for Russia to hold the area west of Melitopol. I could see where these forces fall back to Crimea.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By trapsh00ter99:
Originally Posted By tstorms:

It isn't going to be easy trying to attack through the Perekop Isthmus. The Germans successfully did it in WW2, but the Ukrainians probably don't have a Manstein.

Nope. They will almost need to lay siege to Crimea, and make the position untenable for the Russians. It will take a massive coordination of precision fires, air strikes, and NSM to even make it possible for a ground invasion.

But if they can cut the GLOC at Melitopol, that same thing making it hard for Ukraine to invade Crimea will make it hard for Russia to hold the area west of Melitopol. I could see where these forces fall back to Crimea.
Why would invading Crimea be necessary/good compared to just cutting it off and dropping long range fires on it?   Didn't we send some harpoons already which would make supplying it by sea increasingly dicey?


Link Posted: 2/6/2023 2:45:23 PM EDT
[#38]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Maybe they saw an opportunity to get rid of their commander?


View Quote

Shit, hopefully a trend.
Link Posted: 2/6/2023 2:45:52 PM EDT
[#39]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Finslayer83:


a giant stash of 125mm HEAT rounds
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Finslayer83:
Originally Posted By kpacman:



Several years ago a large arms warehouse in I believe Lithuania  exploded.

It was generally thought that a thermite grenade dropped from a Russian drone was responsible.

Pretty cheap and simple way of destroying millions of dollars of ordnance.


a giant stash of 125mm HEAT rounds

News Article

There have been explosions at two Czech depots, six Bulgarian depots and 5 Ukrainian depots since the 2014 Russian invasion. The blasts at the Ukrainian depots destroyed ~40% of their stocks (210,000 tons). The Czechs linked their blasts to GRU operatives. The Bulgarians were investigating some Russians of interest. I don't think any were definitively proven to have been carried out by the Russians.


Link Posted: 2/6/2023 2:48:03 PM EDT
[#40]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By 4thUSMC:


"Meat is back on the menu boys!" LOTR
View Quote

Link Posted: 2/6/2023 2:52:09 PM EDT
[Last Edit: trapsh00ter99] [#41]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By p3590:
Why would invading Crimea be necessary/good compared to just cutting it off and dropping long range fires on it?   Didn't we send some harpoons already which would make supplying it by sea increasingly dicey?


View Quote
I think would still need ground forces to hold/clear out.

And with the range of anti ship missiles, supply to Sevastopol would still be safe if UA could only deploy anti ship missiles on mainland UA. Drone boats on the other hand could work.

Edit: this is just my low education opinion
Link Posted: 2/6/2023 3:00:41 PM EDT
[#42]








Video coming later.



Link Posted: 2/6/2023 3:06:16 PM EDT
[#43]
Videos are brutal today.

Russian literally drowns in shallow water after a drone grenade strike.

Link Posted: 2/6/2023 3:08:21 PM EDT
[#44]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By jhereg:
You could always fly the drone up and detonate it in the right place/time w/o setting it.
View Quote

Agreed, but setting them at choke points and detonating them remotely would save drones for more than one mission.
Link Posted: 2/6/2023 3:08:25 PM EDT
[#45]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By lorazepam:
I wonder if they are working on claymore ap drones? That seems like a way to deal with open field human waves. Maybe use drones to deploy them, and later remotely detonate them as well.
View Quote

Are we sending the tungsten Himars rounds in any quantity? I was thinking we would see gmlrs cluster munitions on the ground but after researching a bit I am not sure we have them anymore.
Link Posted: 2/6/2023 3:15:25 PM EDT
[#46]
Link Posted: 2/6/2023 3:24:17 PM EDT
[#47]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Jack67:


I agree. I don't think 2023 is going to end this war.  We (the west in whole) missed the chance.  It is going to become the proverbial "frog boil" whether intended or not.  I have followed your posts all along.  Your posts are more anchored in reality than 90% of the posts here, and the last six/nine months show that.

I have disagreed with several things you said over the last month or two, (mentally, not publicly).  I am glad I kept my mouth shut, your accuracy and credibility grows. ;)
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Jack67:
Originally Posted By swede1986:


Both sides are preparing for large offensives when the weather allows for it. 2023 is going to be far more bloody, on both sides, than 2022.


I agree. I don't think 2023 is going to end this war.  We (the west in whole) missed the chance.  It is going to become the proverbial "frog boil" whether intended or not.  I have followed your posts all along.  Your posts are more anchored in reality than 90% of the posts here, and the last six/nine months show that.

I have disagreed with several things you said over the last month or two, (mentally, not publicly).  I am glad I kept my mouth shut, your accuracy and credibility grows. ;)





Sad, because you are likely right: 2023 will not see the end of this.  And many more will needlessly die.

We should have given the Ukrainians more aid, and more quickly.

Now the risk is certain western elements will screech for negotiations instead of a decisive route of the Russians.
Link Posted: 2/6/2023 3:32:55 PM EDT
[#48]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Videos are brutal today.

Russian literally drowns in shallow water after a drone grenade strike.

View Quote


That guy acted like there was something heavy in his backpack, and he can't swim.
Link Posted: 2/6/2023 3:37:08 PM EDT
[#49]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Jozsi:



Mostly because of what was happening in the 50s and 60s with all of the colonial independence movements and the Orcs supporting these movements.
India asked multiple times for military and economic assistance and the British and US declined it multiple times.
It's just cold war politics and India choosing the USsR because of the free cheese.

Mig 21s, making them stop shitting in the Ghanges River, and lastly lower caste clans trying to achieve equality were things kinda important to Indian nationalism and pride.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Jozsi:
Originally Posted By jough43:
Maybe 20 pages back I saw a recent poll in India that the people more supported Russia than USA.

I asked an Indian that I work with why that could be.  She was born in India, but educated and works in US.
She said that since the British gave up India in 1947, the US has not only generally not givien aid, but actively tried to block other countries from giving aid to India.
The Russians have a long history of giving aid and in the UN, blocking USA trying to block aid from other countries.
Looks like we may have chosen poorly, again.



Mostly because of what was happening in the 50s and 60s with all of the colonial independence movements and the Orcs supporting these movements.
India asked multiple times for military and economic assistance and the British and US declined it multiple times.
It's just cold war politics and India choosing the USsR because of the free cheese.

Mig 21s, making them stop shitting in the Ghanges River, and lastly lower caste clans trying to achieve equality were things kinda important to Indian nationalism and pride.


Plus, Indira Gandhi and the entire "authoritarian democracy" thing, the public praise for the Soviet Union and public condemnation of the US/UK on a regular basis throughout the Cold War, failure to acknowledge US contributions (and US direct aid) to the "Green Revolution" of the 1970's, etc.
Link Posted: 2/6/2023 3:40:24 PM EDT
[#50]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Dominion21:





Sad, because you are likely right: 2023 will not see the end of this.  And many more will needlessly die.

We should have given the Ukrainians more aid, and more quickly.

Now the risk is certain western elements will screech for negotiations instead of a decisive route of the Russians.
View Quote
Yup. How many times did we hear "it would take to long to train them on ___________". Well, that could have all been completed by now if you started back then.
Page / 5592
OFFICIAL Russo-Ukrainian War (Page 3457 of 5592)
Close Join Our Mail List to Stay Up To Date! Win a FREE Membership!

Sign up for the ARFCOM weekly newsletter and be entered to win a free ARFCOM membership. One new winner* is announced every week!

You will receive an email every Friday morning featuring the latest chatter from the hottest topics, breaking news surrounding legislation, as well as exclusive deals only available to ARFCOM email subscribers.


By signing up you agree to our User Agreement. *Must have a registered ARFCOM account to win.
Top Top