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Link Posted: 4/19/2023 12:38:10 PM EDT
[#1]
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Originally Posted By _disconnector_:
The Russians had ZERO covering fire set up at all - that dude was able to pretty much stand up and zap all the Russians in his field of view.  Amateurs got what they deserved there. That one Russian must have been shot 20 times by the time the vid ended.  That UA guy led like a boss!

I think a decent strategy for assaulting a trench would be to keep someone with optics and decent shooting skills sitting back 100m or so.  When the guy pops his head up to shoot your guys take him out.  Or at least execute a bounding overwatch!  Just *zerg rush the trench* is a good way to get dead.

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Originally Posted By _disconnector_:
Originally Posted By 7empest:
Originally Posted By dbrad197:


When his sling got caught up as he came out of the bunker to move on the  assaulting Russians I caught myself holding my breath. That dude fucking got it on.




That is a wild video. Dude is a solid leader.
The Russians had ZERO covering fire set up at all - that dude was able to pretty much stand up and zap all the Russians in his field of view.  Amateurs got what they deserved there. That one Russian must have been shot 20 times by the time the vid ended.  That UA guy led like a boss!

I think a decent strategy for assaulting a trench would be to keep someone with optics and decent shooting skills sitting back 100m or so.  When the guy pops his head up to shoot your guys take him out.  Or at least execute a bounding overwatch!  Just *zerg rush the trench* is a good way to get dead.


It lends some credence to what both the Ukrainians and Russians are saying are “meat brigades” or “meat attacks” - untrained mobiks being sent with AKs to storm a trench.  Of course not all of them, the VDV and parts of Wagner are relatively high-quality and we probably won’t see those attacks.
Link Posted: 4/19/2023 12:41:57 PM EDT
[#2]
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Originally Posted By Prime:



POV of a close hit on a Ukrainian vehicle.
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Holy shit.
Link Posted: 4/19/2023 12:43:16 PM EDT
[#3]
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Originally Posted By ludder093:
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Let the 155 flow!
Link Posted: 4/19/2023 12:47:50 PM EDT
[#4]
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Originally Posted By lorazepam:
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Sounds like a nice YA novel.
Link Posted: 4/19/2023 12:52:18 PM EDT
[#5]
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Originally Posted By AROKIE:
So some chatter (from NATO side) about Putin using a non-strategic Nuclear weapon if the Ukrainian offensive gets out of hand. Looks like Russia is pretty sure they cannot stop Ukraine this time.
View Quote
That would definitely open up a whole new set of problems.
Link Posted: 4/19/2023 12:53:56 PM EDT
[#6]
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:




https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FuByGO-acAATFhe?format=jpg&name=large
View Quote

How much intelligence and signals gathering can patriot accomplish or is it just an area denial system.
Link Posted: 4/19/2023 1:04:43 PM EDT
[Last Edit: _disconnector_] [#7]
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Originally Posted By jhereg:
That would definitely open up a whole new set of problems.
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Originally Posted By jhereg:
Originally Posted By AROKIE:
So some chatter (from NATO side) about Putin using a non-strategic Nuclear weapon if the Ukrainian offensive gets out of hand. Looks like Russia is pretty sure they cannot stop Ukraine this time.
That would definitely open up a whole new set of problems.
If the Russians are stupid enough to use a tac nuke in Ukraine I *guarantee* the Poles will be beating the ever loving shit out of mobiks within 24 hours.  

Europeans all understand a simple fact - Europe is too small for a "tactical" nuclear exchange.  No matter how small the bombs are they will still affect other countries.  The balance of terror in Europe is maintained because everyone knows this and the country that breaks that taboo will be beyond the pale.  All the rule books get thrown away.

If Putin is water-head stupid enough to pop a nuke ALL of the gloves will come off.  All of them.  No one could hold back the Poles and even the Germans would be baying for Russian blood.  And I'm sure this has been communicated with crayon drawings and very small words to the Russians already.  I also bet that the Russians have been told that *individuals* will be held responsible if a single U235 nucleus decays on Ukrainian soil.

Link Posted: 4/19/2023 1:06:54 PM EDT
[#8]
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:



Yep, just for clarification, I think all of our bets on which date this actually goes down was determined by our own definition of Ukrainian tanks and ground vehicles moving toward the Russians.
View Quote
I think the actual jump off time is fluid but preparation strikes and the like will be on a time table.  I am wondering where Russia has pulled the most troops from to supplement the Bakhmut assaults.
Link Posted: 4/19/2023 1:08:33 PM EDT
[#9]
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Originally Posted By stgdz:

How much intelligence and signals gathering can patriot accomplish or is it just an area denial system.
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Originally Posted By stgdz:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:




https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FuByGO-acAATFhe?format=jpg&name=large

How much intelligence and signals gathering can patriot accomplish or is it just an area denial system.


With the radars it can identify a lot of air threats and broadcast that info over a network to other air defense systems.  Likewise, other air defense systems and AWACS aircraft can send info to the Patriot.

https://www.army-technology.com/projects/patriot/

https://www.military.com/equipment/an-mpq-53

 The AN/MPQ-53 C-band, multifunction phased array radar system is responsible for searching, detection, tracking and identification of potential threats, and Patriot missiles guidance and ECCM functions. The AN/MPQ-53 is remotely controlled by the MSQ-104 control station, via a cable link. It is able to track more than 100 potential targets and to engage up to 9 of them. The radar system has a range in excess of 100 kilometers.

The MPQ-53 radar set has no moving parts and that makes it very hard to jam. Under the PAC-3 program this radar set has been upgraded. The upgraded MPQ-53 radar set is capable of tracking and engaging a major number of targets, while the baseline features could enhanced to better counter emerging threats such as maneuverable ballistic missiles, and stealth cruise missile and aircraft.


The Ukrainian air force claims they are getting  PAC-3 Interceptors for their systems.  

https://www.radartutorial.eu/19.kartei/06.missile/karte003.en.html

The missile control radar AN/MPQ-53 is a frequency-agile multifunction G/H-Band radar group which performs

surveillance,
Identification Friend-or-Foe (IFF),
tracking and guidance, and
Electronic Counter Measures (ECM) functions
entailed in the Patriot tactical air defence missile system. The antenna array is a 2.44 m diameter, 5,161-element phased-array planar configuration carried on a semi-trailer chassis. The antenna unit has separate arrays for target detection and tracking, missile guidance and IFF functions. The last of these tasks is carried out by an AN/TPX-46(V)7 interrogator, using a supplementary array adjacent the main circular search and track array on the antenna unit. Other supplementary arrays are for sidelobe cancellation and missile guidance signal reception.

The 3 to 170 km range radar performs its surveillance, tracking, guidance and Electronic Protective Measures (EPM) functions in a time-shared manner by using the system's computer to generate action cycles that last in milliseconds. Up to 32 different radar configurations can be called up with the beams tailored for long-range, short range, horizon and clutter, guidance and EPM functions in terms of their power, waveform and physical dimensions. The data rate for each function can also be selected independently to give 54 different operational modes so that, for example, a long-range search can be conducted over a longer time period than a horizon search for low-altitude pop-up targets. None of the functions requires any given time interval which therefore allows a random sequence of radar actions at any one time, considerably adding to an attacker's ECM problem. The search sector is 90° and the track capability is 120°.

The radar system has a capacity to track up to 100 targets and can provide missile guidance data for up to nine missiles.

AN/MPQ-53 (PAC-3) is also known as AN/MPQ-65.  
Link Posted: 4/19/2023 1:08:40 PM EDT
[#10]
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Originally Posted By _disconnector_:
If the Russians are stupid enough to use a tac nuke in Ukraine I *guarantee* the Poles will be beating the ever loving shit out of mobiks within 24 hours.  

Europeans all understand a simple fact - Europe is too small for a "tactical" nuclear exchange.  No matter how small the bombs are they will still affect other countries.  The balance of terror in Europe is maintained because everyone knows this and the country that breaks that taboo will be beyond the pale.  All the rule books get thrown away.

If Putin is water-head stupid enough to pop a nuke ALL of the gloves will come off.  All of them.  No one could hold back the Poles and even the Germans would be baying for Russian blood.  And I'm sure this has been communicated with crayon drawings and very small words to the Russians already.

View Quote



Yeah I don't believe the world would allow the use of any type of nuclear weapon to stand. This isn't 1945 anymore.
Link Posted: 4/19/2023 1:09:51 PM EDT
[#11]
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Originally Posted By Cypher15:
I think the actual jump off time is fluid but preparation strikes and the like will be on a time table.  I am wondering where Russia has pulled the most troops from to supplement the Bakhmut assaults.
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Originally Posted By Cypher15:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:



Yep, just for clarification, I think all of our bets on which date this actually goes down was determined by our own definition of Ukrainian tanks and ground vehicles moving toward the Russians.
I think the actual jump off time is fluid but preparation strikes and the like will be on a time table.  I am wondering where Russia has pulled the most troops from to supplement the Bakhmut assaults.


Russian forces have been pulled primarily from the South to the Bakhmut area recently.
Link Posted: 4/19/2023 1:11:24 PM EDT
[#12]
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Originally Posted By Capta:

Sounds like a nice YA novel.
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https://inker.world/en/drone-boy/
Link Posted: 4/19/2023 1:20:14 PM EDT
[#13]
Link Posted: 4/19/2023 1:23:56 PM EDT
[#14]
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Originally Posted By Capta:

Hello fellow ‘89er!
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@Capta
Link Posted: 4/19/2023 1:27:44 PM EDT
[#15]
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Originally Posted By _disconnector_:
If the Russians are stupid enough to use a tac nuke in Ukraine I *guarantee* the Poles will be beating the ever loving shit out of mobiks within 24 hours.  

Europeans all understand a simple fact - Europe is too small for a "tactical" nuclear exchange.  No matter how small the bombs are they will still affect other countries.  The balance of terror in Europe is maintained because everyone knows this and the country that breaks that taboo will be beyond the pale.  All the rule books get thrown away.

If Putin is water-head stupid enough to pop a nuke ALL of the gloves will come off.  All of them.  No one could hold back the Poles and even the Germans would be baying for Russian blood.  And I'm sure this has been communicated with crayon drawings and very small words to the Russians already.  I also bet that the Russians have been told that *individuals* will be held responsible if a single U235 nucleus decays on Ukrainian soil.

View Quote

Chernobyl scared the hell out of Europe, and the rest of the world for that matter. Especially the low-info types. Admittedly that was during the Cold War and it was something of a different mindset and situation. But if an intentional detonation of a tactical warhead went off now, I could see gates getting opened up.
Link Posted: 4/19/2023 1:39:55 PM EDT
[#16]
Link Posted: 4/19/2023 1:43:40 PM EDT
[#17]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By _disconnector_:
If the Russians are stupid enough to use a tac nuke in Ukraine I *guarantee* the Poles will be beating the ever loving shit out of mobiks within 24 hours.  

Europeans all understand a simple fact - Europe is too small for a "tactical" nuclear exchange.  No matter how small the bombs are they will still affect other countries.  The balance of terror in Europe is maintained because everyone knows this and the country that breaks that taboo will be beyond the pale.  All the rule books get thrown away.

If Putin is water-head stupid enough to pop a nuke ALL of the gloves will come off.  All of them.  No one could hold back the Poles and even the Germans would be baying for Russian blood.  And I'm sure this has been communicated with crayon drawings and very small words to the Russians already.  I also bet that the Russians have been told that *individuals* will be held responsible if a single U235 nucleus decays on Ukrainian soil.

View Quote


LOL

The Germans will roll over and blame Ukraine and the US.
Link Posted: 4/19/2023 1:48:59 PM EDT
[Last Edit: lorazepam] [#18]
Link Posted: 4/19/2023 1:52:58 PM EDT
[#19]
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Originally Posted By Abakan:


LOL

The Germans will roll over and blame Ukraine and the US.
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Believable.
Link Posted: 4/19/2023 2:00:41 PM EDT
[#20]
As we have seen here before new Ukrainian counteroffensives, there are new markings on Ukrainian vehicles recently.

And yes, that is Darth Vader's Tie Advanced.





Link Posted: 4/19/2023 2:09:21 PM EDT
[#21]
Article on the Russian ships that might be helping to plan sabotage with Western countries.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65309687
Link Posted: 4/19/2023 2:10:49 PM EDT
[#22]
Chinese drones in Ukraine.
Link Posted: 4/19/2023 2:11:58 PM EDT
[#23]
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Article on the Russian ships that might be helping to plan sabotage with Western countries.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65309687
View Quote



Me thinks the world will be watching VERY carefully for this type of sh!t . . . . .


CMOS
Link Posted: 4/19/2023 2:13:08 PM EDT
[#24]
Link Posted: 4/19/2023 2:13:38 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Capta] [#25]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By _disconnector_:
If the Russians are stupid enough to use a tac nuke in Ukraine I *guarantee* the Poles will be beating the ever loving shit out of mobiks within 24 hours.  

Europeans all understand a simple fact - Europe is too small for a "tactical" nuclear exchange.  No matter how small the bombs are they will still affect other countries.  The balance of terror in Europe is maintained because everyone knows this and the country that breaks that taboo will be beyond the pale.  All the rule books get thrown away.

If Putin is water-head stupid enough to pop a nuke ALL of the gloves will come off.  All of them.  No one could hold back the Poles and even the Germans would be baying for Russian blood.  And I'm sure this has been communicated with crayon drawings and very small words to the Russians already.  I also bet that the Russians have been told that *individuals* will be held responsible if a single U235 nucleus decays on Ukrainian soil.

View Quote View All Quotes
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Originally Posted By _disconnector_:
Originally Posted By jhereg:
Originally Posted By AROKIE:
So some chatter (from NATO side) about Putin using a non-strategic Nuclear weapon if the Ukrainian offensive gets out of hand. Looks like Russia is pretty sure they cannot stop Ukraine this time.
That would definitely open up a whole new set of problems.
If the Russians are stupid enough to use a tac nuke in Ukraine I *guarantee* the Poles will be beating the ever loving shit out of mobiks within 24 hours.  

Europeans all understand a simple fact - Europe is too small for a "tactical" nuclear exchange.  No matter how small the bombs are they will still affect other countries.  The balance of terror in Europe is maintained because everyone knows this and the country that breaks that taboo will be beyond the pale.  All the rule books get thrown away.

If Putin is water-head stupid enough to pop a nuke ALL of the gloves will come off.  All of them.  No one could hold back the Poles and even the Germans would be baying for Russian blood.  And I'm sure this has been communicated with crayon drawings and very small words to the Russians already.  I also bet that the Russians have been told that *individuals* will be held responsible if a single U235 nucleus decays on Ukrainian soil.


I’ve thought since the beginning that the chances of going nuclear (though far from certain) were higher than we like to think.  You’ve got an ideological totalitarian in complete control with little or no accountability, nothing to lose and everything to gain if the West blinks.  Why wouldn’t Putin continue to escalate?
If anything nuclear goes off in Ukraine the very, very first thing that needs to happen is every Russian sub gets put on the bottom.  No discussion, no warning.  The West will have to act to limit damage to itself.
There is probably a reason Ukraine is getting Patriot with PAC-3 missiles optimized for ABM defense.  By the time the offensive kicks off I bet there will be a Patriot in the major Ukrainian cities and one with the main offensive thrust.
That said, there’s evidence from both previous offensives that the Ukrainians operate to limit damage from a nuke. So unless it was just a single ”demonstration shot” Russia would have to use quite a few to actually have an effect.
Link Posted: 4/19/2023 2:16:25 PM EDT
[#26]
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Originally Posted By stgdz:

How much intelligence and signals gathering can patriot accomplish or is it just an area denial system.
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Originally Posted By stgdz:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:




https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FuByGO-acAATFhe?format=jpg&name=large

How much intelligence and signals gathering can patriot accomplish or is it just an area denial system.
Can Patriot link into an AWAC?
Link Posted: 4/19/2023 2:17:42 PM EDT
[#27]
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Originally Posted By ludder093:
Can Patriot link into an AWAC?
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YES.


CMOS
Link Posted: 4/19/2023 2:19:08 PM EDT
[#28]
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Originally Posted By lorazepam:
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A cluster munition consisting of bushmaster snakes and funnel web spiders. Just an idea.
Link Posted: 4/19/2023 2:22:56 PM EDT
[#29]
Link Posted: 4/19/2023 2:23:38 PM EDT
[#30]
Here we go. One explosion. Sounded like an interception, but it wasn't far off.
Link Posted: 4/19/2023 2:25:27 PM EDT
[#31]
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Originally Posted By lorazepam:
Chinese drones in Ukraine.
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Damn that's about as cheap and dirty as you can get.
Link Posted: 4/19/2023 2:26:39 PM EDT
[#32]
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Originally Posted By ludder093:
Can Patriot link into an AWAC?
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Originally Posted By ludder093:
Originally Posted By stgdz:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:




https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FuByGO-acAATFhe?format=jpg&name=large

How much intelligence and signals gathering can patriot accomplish or is it just an area denial system.
Can Patriot link into an AWAC?


Yes, among other radars.
Link Posted: 4/19/2023 2:28:58 PM EDT
[#33]
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Originally Posted By Easterner:
Here we go. One explosion. Sounded like an interception, but it wasn't far off.
View Quote



Stay safe man
Link Posted: 4/19/2023 2:31:44 PM EDT
[#34]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
As we have seen here before new Ukrainian counteroffensives, there are new markings on Ukrainian vehicles recently.

And yes, that is Darth Vader's Tie Advanced.


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FuGCnXlWABoSHU_?format=jpg&name=900x900
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FuGCnXsWAAwawNI?format=jpg&name=medium
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FuGCnXpWABohOqK?format=jpg&name=medium
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FuGCnXmX0AEQMy-?format=jpg&name=large
View Quote


Snake seen in Ukraine
Link Posted: 4/19/2023 2:34:02 PM EDT
[#35]
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Originally Posted By Easterner:
Here we go. One explosion. Sounded like an interception, but it wasn't far off.
View Quote

Confirmed to be air defense.
Link Posted: 4/19/2023 2:35:33 PM EDT
[#36]

Link Posted: 4/19/2023 2:40:36 PM EDT
[#37]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By _disconnector_:
If the Russians are stupid enough to use a tac nuke in Ukraine I *guarantee* the Poles will be beating the ever loving shit out of mobiks within 24 hours.  

Europeans all understand a simple fact - Europe is too small for a "tactical" nuclear exchange.  No matter how small the bombs are they will still affect other countries.  The balance of terror in Europe is maintained because everyone knows this and the country that breaks that taboo will be beyond the pale.  All the rule books get thrown away.

If Putin is water-head stupid enough to pop a nuke ALL of the gloves will come off.  All of them.  No one could hold back the Poles and even the Germans would be baying for Russian blood.  And I'm sure this has been communicated with crayon drawings and very small words to the Russians already.  I also bet that the Russians have been told that *individuals* will be held responsible if a single U235 nucleus decays on Ukrainian soil.

View Quote View All Quotes
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Originally Posted By _disconnector_:
Originally Posted By jhereg:
Originally Posted By AROKIE:
So some chatter (from NATO side) about Putin using a non-strategic Nuclear weapon if the Ukrainian offensive gets out of hand. Looks like Russia is pretty sure they cannot stop Ukraine this time.
That would definitely open up a whole new set of problems.
If the Russians are stupid enough to use a tac nuke in Ukraine I *guarantee* the Poles will be beating the ever loving shit out of mobiks within 24 hours.  

Europeans all understand a simple fact - Europe is too small for a "tactical" nuclear exchange.  No matter how small the bombs are they will still affect other countries.  The balance of terror in Europe is maintained because everyone knows this and the country that breaks that taboo will be beyond the pale.  All the rule books get thrown away.

If Putin is water-head stupid enough to pop a nuke ALL of the gloves will come off.  All of them.  No one could hold back the Poles and even the Germans would be baying for Russian blood.  And I'm sure this has been communicated with crayon drawings and very small words to the Russians already.  I also bet that the Russians have been told that *individuals* will be held responsible if a single U235 nucleus decays on Ukrainian soil.



For Poland, Finland and the Baltics, (and Sweden as well) National Survival dictates that, if Russia opens canned sunshine, the cost on Russia Russia has to be both prohibitive and lasting.  Poland would not only intervene in Ukraine, but I'm guessing the Belarus regime would get rubbed out in short order, St Petersburg would no longer be a seaport of any note, Transnistria would rapidly cease to exist as a semi-sovereign entity, and Kaliningrad would become Konigsberg again.
Link Posted: 4/19/2023 2:48:06 PM EDT
[#38]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly:


For Poland, Finland and the Baltics, (and Sweden as well) National Survival dictates that, if Russia opens canned sunshine, the cost on Russia Russia has to be both prohibitive and lasting.  Poland would not only intervene in Ukraine, but I'm guessing the Belarus regime would get rubbed out in short order, St Petersburg would no longer be a seaport of any note, Transnistria would rapidly cease to exist as a semi-sovereign entity, and Kaliningrad would become Konigsberg again.
View Quote



I'm concerned that Xiden would apply pressure to these Eastern Euro nations to limit their response to Canned Sunshine, as a tactical nuke would be considered to be (cough) "limited nuclear incursion".

CMOS
Link Posted: 4/19/2023 2:57:43 PM EDT
[#39]
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Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER:

Despite years of being targeted by Russian propaganda, especially through some very stupid or very compromised influential assholes like Napolitano, I still believe that the vast majority of the right in America support Ukraine and support assisting the militarily. Many dont trust Xiden and automatically assume there is corruption in progress "10% for the big guy" and they want the books checked. The 20224 election cycle has started early and cynical politicians are taking advantage of this paranoia and discontent.

For many Americans on the right, it's not "Fuck Ukraine" but rather "Fuck Whatever Xiden is Doing". They have lost their minds since the 2020 election irregularities and the covid selective authoritarianism targeting them. If Xiden, the CDC, etc said chocolate ice cream is better than vanilla, they would throw out all their chocolate ice cream! 90% of Americans (left or right) couldnt find Ukraine on the map but they all know the democrats, especially Xiden Crime Family have had long term Op's there and this colors their opinions also. People have always been stupid but since 2020, they are stupid AND cynical.
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Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER:
Originally Posted By trapsh00ter99:
I've been saying it for months. Fuck Ukraine is the right's Current ThingTM

Despite years of being targeted by Russian propaganda, especially through some very stupid or very compromised influential assholes like Napolitano, I still believe that the vast majority of the right in America support Ukraine and support assisting the militarily. Many dont trust Xiden and automatically assume there is corruption in progress "10% for the big guy" and they want the books checked. The 20224 election cycle has started early and cynical politicians are taking advantage of this paranoia and discontent.

For many Americans on the right, it's not "Fuck Ukraine" but rather "Fuck Whatever Xiden is Doing". They have lost their minds since the 2020 election irregularities and the covid selective authoritarianism targeting them. If Xiden, the CDC, etc said chocolate ice cream is better than vanilla, they would throw out all their chocolate ice cream! 90% of Americans (left or right) couldnt find Ukraine on the map but they all know the democrats, especially Xiden Crime Family have had long term Op's there and this colors their opinions also. People have always been stupid but since 2020, they are stupid AND cynical.

Agree 100%. It doesn’t help that some popular talk show hosts got on the stupid bandwagon. But is shows how thin the principles are versus adversarial politics.
Link Posted: 4/19/2023 3:09:56 PM EDT
[#40]
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Article on the Russian ships that might be helping to plan sabotage with Western countries.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65309687
View Quote

Just tell the French it belongs to Greenpeace.
Link Posted: 4/19/2023 3:10:32 PM EDT
[#41]
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Originally Posted By Capta:

I’ve thought since the beginning that the chances of going nuclear (though far from certain) were higher than we like to think.  You’ve got an ideological totalitarian in complete control with little or no accountability, nothing to lose and everything to gain if the West blinks.  Why wouldn’t Putin continue to escalate?
If anything nuclear goes off in Ukraine the very, very first thing that needs to happen is every Russian sub gets put on the bottom.  No discussion, no warning.  The West will have to act to limit damage to itself.
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Originally Posted By Capta:

I’ve thought since the beginning that the chances of going nuclear (though far from certain) were higher than we like to think.  You’ve got an ideological totalitarian in complete control with little or no accountability, nothing to lose and everything to gain if the West blinks.  Why wouldn’t Putin continue to escalate?
If anything nuclear goes off in Ukraine the very, very first thing that needs to happen is every Russian sub gets put on the bottom.  No discussion, no warning.  The West will have to act to limit damage to itself.

I think you make a fair point there. How much are we willing to trust in Pootie's restraint after he opens up the first can?
There is probably a reason Ukraine is getting Patriot with PAC-3 missiles optimized for ABM defense.  By the time the offensive kicks off I bet there will be a Patriot in the major Ukrainian cities and one with the main offensive thrust.

Another good point. Something launched by cruise or ballistic missile I think would be more likely than a nuke demo charge or artillery round unless it was a "mine" left in a location likely to have a lot of Ukrainian traffic on it. Not sure just what all their inventory is.
That said, there’s evidence from both previous offensives that the Ukrainians operate to limit damage from a nuke. So unless it was just a single ”demonstration shot” Russia would have to use quite a few to actually have an effect.

A likely explanation regarding "Why haven't we seen massed armor/mech movements?" and "Why do their forces seem to be so spread out?"
Link Posted: 4/19/2023 3:12:14 PM EDT
[#42]
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Originally Posted By ludder093:
Damn that's about as cheap and dirty as you can get.
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Those Australian (?) cardboard drones are worlds better than that POS at least in appearance.
Link Posted: 4/19/2023 3:14:22 PM EDT
[#43]
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Originally Posted By CMOS:



I'm concerned that Xiden would apply pressure to these Eastern Euro nations to limit their response to Canned Sunshine, as a tactical nuke would be considered to be (cough) "limited nuclear incursion".

CMOS
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I can completely see that.
Spin up the James Taylor diplomacy tour.
Link Posted: 4/19/2023 3:21:56 PM EDT
[#44]
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Originally Posted By CMOS:



I'm concerned that Xiden would apply pressure to these Eastern Euro nations to limit their response to Canned Sunshine, as a tactical nuke would be considered to be (cough) "limited nuclear incursion".

CMOS
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Originally Posted By CMOS:
Originally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly:


For Poland, Finland and the Baltics, (and Sweden as well) National Survival dictates that, if Russia opens canned sunshine, the cost on Russia Russia has to be both prohibitive and lasting.  Poland would not only intervene in Ukraine, but I'm guessing the Belarus regime would get rubbed out in short order, St Petersburg would no longer be a seaport of any note, Transnistria would rapidly cease to exist as a semi-sovereign entity, and Kaliningrad would become Konigsberg again.



I'm concerned that Xiden would apply pressure to these Eastern Euro nations to limit their response to Canned Sunshine, as a tactical nuke would be considered to be (cough) "limited nuclear incursion".

CMOS


I’m sure he might try, but at that point….


Link Posted: 4/19/2023 3:26:42 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Saltwater-Hillbilly] [#45]
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Originally Posted By CMOS:



I'm concerned that Xiden would apply pressure to these Eastern Euro nations to limit their response to Canned Sunshine, as a tactical nuke would be considered to be (cough) "limited nuclear incursion".

CMOS
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Originally Posted By CMOS:
Originally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly:


For Poland, Finland and the Baltics, (and Sweden as well) National Survival dictates that, if Russia opens canned sunshine, the cost on Russia Russia has to be both prohibitive and lasting.  Poland would not only intervene in Ukraine, but I'm guessing the Belarus regime would get rubbed out in short order, St Petersburg would no longer be a seaport of any note, Transnistria would rapidly cease to exist as a semi-sovereign entity, and Kaliningrad would become Konigsberg again.



I'm concerned that Xiden would apply pressure to these Eastern Euro nations to limit their response to Canned Sunshine, as a tactical nuke would be considered to be (cough) "limited nuclear incursion".

CMOS


At this point, I'm not sure Biden's "Just the Tip" diplomacy would gain much traction; Biden is "Kompromat" by BOTH the Ukes and Russians, and considering the Poles probably have access to most of the same intel that the Ukes do at this point, Biden would instantly be neutralized.  As in "you open your mouth and anything besides unconditional support comes out, then anything/everything we have on your deals with  the Russians will get released, which will be the effective end of your Presidency as well as probably either exile to somewhere without an extradition treaty with the US of jail time for your immediate family and anyone closely associated with you".  Just like you can't underestimate his ability to f*ck thing up, never underestimate his ability to fold like a cheap suit.
Link Posted: 4/19/2023 3:32:29 PM EDT
[#46]
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Originally Posted By Abakan:


LOL

The Germans will roll over and blame Ukraine and the US.
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Originally Posted By Abakan:
Originally Posted By _disconnector_:
If the Russians are stupid enough to use a tac nuke in Ukraine I *guarantee* the Poles will be beating the ever loving shit out of mobiks within 24 hours.  

Europeans all understand a simple fact - Europe is too small for a "tactical" nuclear exchange.  No matter how small the bombs are they will still affect other countries.  The balance of terror in Europe is maintained because everyone knows this and the country that breaks that taboo will be beyond the pale.  All the rule books get thrown away.

If Putin is water-head stupid enough to pop a nuke ALL of the gloves will come off.  All of them.  No one could hold back the Poles and even the Germans would be baying for Russian blood.  And I'm sure this has been communicated with crayon drawings and very small words to the Russians already.  I also bet that the Russians have been told that *individuals* will be held responsible if a single U235 nucleus decays on Ukrainian soil.



LOL

The Germans will roll over and blame Ukraine and the US.

Attachment Attached File
Link Posted: 4/19/2023 3:33:52 PM EDT
[#47]
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Originally Posted By lorazepam:
Chinese drones in Ukraine.
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Not so much Chinese drones as it is ChinaIsAsshoe is one of the few countries where certain components are made in volume like motors and batteries. So, the airframe can be made out of cheap local materials and all the other parts bought commercially from the Chinese.
Link Posted: 4/19/2023 3:36:46 PM EDT
[#48]







Link Posted: 4/19/2023 3:47:44 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Easterner] [#49]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FuGBv5iWAAwEqKC?format=jpg&name=medium
View Quote


I looked at the picture and thought... "Are the Russians using trebuchets now?"

And on that note, another kaboom. Assholes.
Link Posted: 4/19/2023 3:58:42 PM EDT
[#50]
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Originally Posted By DTIguy:
War is hell

team lead did a pretty good job controlling his guys in the chaos.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzL3rUfF_wY
View Quote

Holy shit that was intense. That guy smoke 4-5 orcs right outside that bunker. Did a great job communicating with the others. As we have seen in too many vid's... to hunker down in a trench or bunker and let the fuckers get within grenade range is pure death. I kept thinking of the line from Aliens "we cant afford to let one of those things in here", and it's very true in trench warfare.  And to those poor stupid orcs, assault through the objective rather than bunch up just outside of cover. Sheesh!
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OFFICIAL Russo-Ukrainian War (Page 3893 of 5592)
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