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Posted: 1/31/2024 2:28:59 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: Related by pants pissing policy, aka ESCALATION 😱😱😱 NO WAY!
US allies take note. Not even in our own defense will we strike at the source. We will never strike or allow our weapons to strike Russia, Iran, or China. If they attack you we will give you a partial umbrella (at best) to from which to watch your country pulverized piece by piece. If we are attacked we will shoot down most of the missiles but not the launchers or command posts. The military technical term for this policy is rudderless, cowardly insanity. Plan accordingly. The Biden Administration has no desire to seriously escalate against Iran during an election year. If the Biden Administration escalates significantly, they risk pissing off voters who, like it or not, don't have much appetite for further US intervention in the region. If the Biden Administration does nothing, they risk looking weak, especially relative to Trump, who droned Solemani (killing that asshole was one of the absolute best things to come out of his presidency, IMO). Personally, I've held the belief for a while that there are a lot of things we could be doing to destabilize the Iranian regime that don't entail boots on the ground, but I don't have much faith in the Biden Administration to effectively carry them out. |
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Posted: 1/31/2024 2:32:44 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MFP_4073: the purported change of military leadership at the highest levels in Ukraine is going to be an interesting development looks like this is happening ----------------------------------------- Zelensky to oust Ukraine’s top general amid tension over new mobilization By Isabelle Khurshudyan and John Hudson Updated January 31, 2024 at 10:25 a.m. EST|Published January 31, 2024 at 5:23 a.m. EST KYIV — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told his top commander, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, that he was firing him in a meeting on Monday, according to a senior official familiar with the conversation — a disruptive military shake-up amid Ukraine’s struggles on the battlefield and after months of friction between the president and the popular general. Zaluzhny remains in his post for now, but a formal presidential decree is expected to confirm his ousting nearly two years into Russia’s invasion and as Moscow’s forces appear to be gaining the strategic initiative on some parts of the front. On Monday, Zelensky’s spokesman, Serhiy Nykyforov, denied that Zaluzhny had been fired. “There is no subject of conversation,” Nykyforov told reporters. “There is no order. The president did not dismiss the commander in chief.” Nykyforov on Wednesday did not immediately reply to messages from The Washington Post seeking any updated comment. It is far from clear that any new commander will be able to improve Ukraine’s difficult situation on the battlefield without significantly more forces and weapons — precisely what Zaluzhny has demanded of Zelensky, adding tension to what was already a fraying relationship. Zaluzhny’s popularity — both within the military and among ordinary citizens — makes his removal a political gamble for Zelensky. It also poses strategic risks at a time when Russia has intensified its attacks and Western security assistance for Kyiv has slowed. The general has built strong rapport with his Western counterparts and has often been able to advocate directly for certain materiel and seek counsel on battlefield strategy. It wasunclear whether Zelensky and his team had planned for the dismissal to happen this week before details of Monday’s meeting leaked to some media and channels on the Telegram social media app. But tension between the men had been building for months. Last year’s highly anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive, using soldiers trained by NATO allies and with Western weapons and equipment, reclaimed little territory, falling far short of expectations. Zaluzhny and his American counterparts disagreed sharply over tactics, and the Ukrainian commander ultimately ignored U.S. advice to concentrate his forces, which he believed could have caused far higher casualties. In their conversation Monday, Zelensky told Zaluzhny that Ukrainians have grown tired of war and that the country’s international backers have also slowed military assistance, so perhaps a new commander would rejuvenate the situation, the person familiar with their conversation said. Two individuals spoke about the meeting on the condition of anonymity to be candid about the highly sensitive situation with unpredictable implications for the war and Ukraine’s security. Senior members of Zaluzhny’s staff are also expected to be removed, one person said. In Monday’s meeting, differences between the two boiled over because of disagreement about how many soldiers Ukraine needs to mobilize this year, according to the two people familiar with the exchange. Zaluzhny proposed mobilizing close to 500,000 troops, a figure Zelensky viewed as impractical given the scarcity of uniforms, guns and training facilities and potential challenges related to recruitment, the people said. Zelensky has also said publicly that Ukraine lacks the funds to pay so many new conscripts. Zaluzhny countered that Ukraine is already short of forces due to mounting casualties and needs to match 400,000 new soldiers that Russia plans to mobilize, one person familiar with the conversation said. Andrii, a deputy battalion commander, denounced Zaluzhny’s expected removal with an epithet. Andrii, like other soldiers, is being identified only by his first name because he was not authorized to speak publicly. Zaluzhny “has sensible thoughts on mobilization,” Andrii said. “People are like, ‘We don’t need mobilization, everything is just fine there,’ but they’re not … here. They don’t know what’s happening here.” It was not immediately clear who will replace the 50-year-old Zaluzhny. One leading candidate is Ukraine’s head of military intelligence, 38-year-old Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, potentially signaling a move toward asymmetric tactics, such as the drone strikes deep into Russian territory that Budanov often has ordered, in a war where the front lines have seen little change in more than a year. But Budanov, with a background in special forces, does not have experience as an army commander. Another option is Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, the 58-year-old commander of Ukraine’s ground forces, who was credited with leading the defense of Kyiv in the first month of the war and then orchestrating a successful counteroffensive in the northeastern Kharkiv region in fall 2022. But among rank-and-file soldiers in the military, Syrsky is especially disliked, considered by many to be a Soviet-style commander who kept forces under fire for too long in the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut when Kyiv should’ve withdrawn. Both Budanov and Syrsky are considered favorites of Zelensky and Andriy Yermak, the chief of the presidential office and Zelensky’s closest adviser. Closer to the front, however, there seems to be little appetite for change. “My personal opinion is you can’t do something like this right now — Zaluzhny is someone 80 percent of the military considers a good authority,” said Oleksandr, a battalion commander currently fighting in eastern Ukraine. “For what is he being removed? It’s not clear. And who will replace him? Syrsky? God, I hope not. No one in the army likes Syrsky,” Oleksandr added. Zaluzhny was offered another post but declined and plans to retire from the military, according to the senior official. Reached by The Post, Zaluzhny declined to comment. For now, he remains in the top job, and the formal order dismissing him could be delayed. Last year, the head of Zelensky’s faction in parliament announced that Oleksii Reznikov, then the defense minister, would be ousted, but Reznikov stayed in the post for months before being removed. “This is a catastrophic step,” Oleksandr said. “When this becomes official, we’re screwed. The morale of both the military and society will go way down.” Friction between Zelensky and Zaluzhny has been brewing for months, and the general has expected he could be dismissed since summer 2022, the person said. Zaluzhny has been Ukraine’s commander in chief since Russia’s invasion in February 2022, and, according to opinion polls, rivals Zelensky in popularity, making him a potential political threat if presidential elections were to take place. Elections are currently barred in Ukraine because of martial law but under normal conditions should have taken place this year. “There’s only one explanation: the Zelensky government is just putting his missteps … on Zaluzhny’s shoulders,” said a soldier currently fighting in the besieged eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka. “Zelensky is just very dependent on ratings and he understands completely that Zaluzhny’s rating right now is much higher than his own. And that’s it. I think that politics shouldn’t interfere with the military doing their work.” Though Ukrainian officials privately have hinted at distrust between Zaluzhny and Zelensky over the past year, the discord has spilled into open view in recent months. Last fall Zaluzhny referred to the war as a “stalemate” in an interview with the Economist magazine. Zelensky publicly rebuked those remarks. Another source of tension has been the gap between what Zaluzhny has requested for Ukraine’s military and what Kyiv’s political leaders have been able to draw from allies and partners, a second person familiar with the Monday meeting said. “He says in conversations with the minister of defense: ‘It’s not my job to get this; it’s your job,’” the person said. Proposed aid for Ukraine has stalled in Washington and Brussels because of internal political disputes in the United States and the European Union. House Republicans have blocked a White House request for an additional $60 billion related to the war in Ukraine. New Ukrainian military leadership is unlikely to change that, as the stalled security assistance has been tied to reaching a bipartisan deal for sweeping U.S. border policy changes. “I don’t know who will be next, what kind of decisions were made, but maybe they just want to hear some good news from the head commander, like, ‘Everything is going dandy, it’s cool,’ but that’s not going to happen,” said Andrii, the deputy battalion commander. Until now, Ukraine has enjoyed relative stability in its military ranks compared to its invading enemy. Russian President Vladimir Putin named Gen. Valery Gerasimov to the top job one year ago, dismissing Gen. Sergei Surovikin, who was in the post for just three months. “The Kyiv regime has many problems, and everything has gone wrong there, that’s for sure,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Wednesday when asked about Zaluzhny’s possible dismissal. “Obviously, the failed counteroffensive and problems at the front increase the disagreements between members of the Kyiv regime,” Peskov added. Hudson reported from Washington. Anastacia Galouchka and David L. Stern in Kyiv, Serhiy Morgunov in Warsaw and Natalia Abbakumova in Riga, Latvia, contributed to this report. --------------------------------------------------------- Ukraine trusts Zaluzhny, the soldiers and the public both. If Zelensky dismisses him just to shake things up, it could be a disaster and the beginning of the end for Ukraine. Zaluzhny never concealed the challenges to overcome or what was needed to do so. Maybe Zelensky and the civilian government didn't want to hear that 500K new recruits/conscripts are needed, but Zaluzhny wasn't wrong. If Kyiv can't pay for them, well, it's their country on the line. They find a way to make it work, or they die. I think Zelensky and his team choked on that bone. I suspect that large financial aid from the west helped Kyiv conceal or fail to understand the scope of the shift that was needed. Civil services needed to be pulled back to very low levels and people sent to military work - support if not the front. At this point in time, the military should have more personnel on the payroll than the civilian side. If Kyiv has not made this shift, the failure is on Zelensky. I think Zaluzhny has made the best of a bad situation. Working with the civilian leadership, working with western partners, being the public face of the army, trying to balance the constraints of their situation with the demands of people in Kyiv, London, Berlin, Washington, etc. Trying to balance the actual situation in the field with the demands of those same people and western militaries who are not understanding the facts on the ground. Nobody's perfect, but I see little serious problem with Zaluzhny. The summer offensive in particular is not something that could have been successful, given the strength of the line they were attacking. AFU never had the tools they needed to breach the line, or to follow western doctrine. I think the western partners set him up to fail, honestly. Giving him some equipment but very limited, and no air support, then demanding that he break through the strongest defensive military line in the world was stupid, IMO. Zelensky must know he's rolling the dice on the existence of his country. Zelensky has done well with the information/diplomacy angle. But the AFU actions must always be best for Ukraine, not necessarily what western observers with no skin in the game tell them to do. It's a bad mess. |
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Posted: 1/31/2024 2:33:33 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Ha, they tried to hipfire a SAM at the missile at the last second! Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: 15 minutes ago, official Ukrainian air force message. 
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GFL_s8dWcAAW75t?format=jpg&name=small 3 solid hits.
lol.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GFMEaSlXoAAJErC?format=jpg&name=small Ha, they tried to hipfire a SAM at the missile at the last second! That looks like an airbust for the storm shadow, which means a high value aircraft could be the target. Tomahawk example:   |
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Posted: 1/31/2024 2:34:27 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: Related by pants pissing policy, aka ESCALATION 😱😱😱 NO WAY!
US allies take note. Not even in our own defense will we strike at the source. We will never strike or allow our weapons to strike Russia, Iran, or China. If they attack you we will give you a partial umbrella (at best) to from which to watch your country pulverized piece by piece. If we are attacked we will shoot down most of the missiles but not the launchers or command posts. The military technical term for this policy is rudderless, cowardly insanity. Plan accordingly. Have to agree. The Houthis and this will only demonstrate weakness and guarantee further attacks. It will probably even be noted by Russia and China. |
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Posted: 1/31/2024 2:36:36 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: Great to see the Marines are doing intelligent and in depth analysis of the war in Ukraine to guide their own weapons and tactics. “Congested airspace”. I love America! Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
https://www.defenseone.com/defense-systems/2024/01/marine-corps-field-squad-level-loitering-munitions-2027/393776/ Some Marine Corps squads will get loitering munitions as soon as fiscal year 2027, and the race is already on to figure out how to operate them in congested airspace, two program managers said Tuesday. The Corps first identified the need for an infantry-controlled loitering munition in 2020, shortly after Azerbaijan used multiple types of one-way attack drones to devastate Armenian forces. Since then, the Marines have stood up several loitering munitions programs, including one called the Organic Precision Fire program that will provide squad and platoon-sized units with loitering munitions. That program is split into two elements: Organic Precision Fire—Infantry and Organic Precision Fire—Mounted, for use on vehicles. The Marine Corps is “going pretty aggressively into identifying a lightweight solution for squads,” said Travis Bowden, capabilities integration officer for Organic Precision Fires. Marines in the field will get the weapon “sometime in [fiscal year] 2027, Bowden said, though the timeline also depends on how well potential suppliers perform. Use of drones in Ukraine has validated many of the Marine Corps’ assumptions about how to use loitering munitions, Bowden said. Still, he cautioned that the Marines’ global, expeditionary nature means it has different priorities than Ukrainian drone-bombing units with short logistics chains. For one, fuzes, lithium batteries, and other elements of a loitering munition will have to be stored safely on ships and planes traveling anywhere in the world. The variation in climate from the sweltering Pacific to the freezing Arctic could also affect the munitions’ battery life, he said. Changing weather could also affect accuracy, Bowden said. And the jury is still out on whether the service will choose a sophisticated, expensive weapon or a simpler, cheaper model, Bowden said. “That's why the lessons from Ukraine and other places are giving us some starting points to kind of validate what we're thinking,” he said. Regardless, given the limitations of weather, electronic warfare, and logistics, Bodwen said he does not foresee loitering munitions “darkening the sky.” Command and control systems will also need to improve for the Marine Corps to use the weapons, he said, including better intelligence collection for identifying targets and greater communications between units to coordinate strikes. Targeting, communications, and weapons will need to “progress together and mature together in order to realize that full targeting process that we're trying to get to the lowest level,” of command, he said. The Marines’ fielding of another drone, the resupply TRV-150C model, is already providing lessons in drone deployment, said Master Sgt. Christopher Genualdi, capabilities integration officer for aerial delivery and autonomous distribution systems. The Marine Corps announced the initial fielding of six of the large drones in November of last year. The drones are designed to drop-off payloads to Marines deployed in areas where an enemy’s defenses prevent aerial resupply. The drones can fly a payload of 150 pounds about nine miles. The drones are so easy to fly that they are piloted by members of Marine logistics units, rather than dedicated drone pilots, Genualdi said. However, as troops learn to use the system, they’ve discovered that there’s no easy way to keep drones out of the way of other U.S. aircraft and airborne munitions. Units can manually deconflict airspace by verbally informing other units, including Marine aviators, of the drones presence, Genualdi said. Failing that, though, the Marine Corps systems do not easily allow for tracking of both unmanned and manned planes at the same time. “I have a guy who works in the Direct Air Support Center, deconflicting in the airspace,” he said, “but our systems don't necessarily talk to his.” Genualdi said the issue isn’t insolvable, pointing to successes in the commercial sector for tracking airborne vehicles. “I'm able to go online right now and kind of see every single civilian aircraft,” he said. The Marine Corps is also working through who is supposed to fix the drones when they break. The current repair program consists of contracted repair, in which drones are sent back to dedicated repair centers. In the field, though, Marines may need to learn how to make simple repairs, like swapping out motors. For example, troops qualified at micro-soldering might step into repair drones, Genualdi said. Great to see the Marines are doing intelligent and in depth analysis of the war in Ukraine to guide their own weapons and tactics. “Congested airspace”. I love America! Yeah but their FPV will probably carry a big crayon instead of an RPG round. |
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Posted: 1/31/2024 2:39:17 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: That looks like an airbust for the storm shadow, which means a high value aircraft could be the target. Tomahawk example: https://i.imgur.com/WscblZa.jpeg https://i.imgur.com/NYJxkck.gif Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Originally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: 15 minutes ago, official Ukrainian air force message.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GFL_s8dWcAAW75t?format=jpg&name=small 3 solid hits.
lol.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GFMEaSlXoAAJErC?format=jpg&name=small Ha, they tried to hipfire a SAM at the missile at the last second! That looks like an airbust for the storm shadow, which means a high value aircraft could be the target. Tomahawk example: https://i.imgur.com/WscblZa.jpeg https://i.imgur.com/NYJxkck.gif You can see a tall radio mast in the area, so I’m betting radar battery vehicles. |
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Posted: 1/31/2024 2:39:58 PM EDT
[#7]
 Brandon Mitchell - Ukraine Opposes the Evil of Russian Aggession - But Ukraine''s War is Our War Too. |
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Posted: 1/31/2024 2:46:46 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: Concur. My point is that Both the Russians and the Germans war efforts collapsed well before they had expended all of their theoretical military warfighting capability, and from the outside looking in, it is tricky to try to determine a national culmination by merely looking at combat force generation capability. Authoritarian governments are also really bad at knowing when to call it quits and will often go till something breaks not related directly to the frontline issues, usually when some factors not seen as major have combined to create unrecoverable strategic issues. Exactly. This is where Putin's work on the civil side in the last 20 years pays off. He has suppressed all opposition so extensively even the lawyers for jailed opposition leaders get prosecuted. He has suppressed the press so extensively that the majority of the population have no access to outside/3rd party information. This keeps an effective lid on internal issues. Putin knows the history of 1916-1921 extremely well, far better than we do. Allowing an uprising from the military has been damped by cultural factors & propaganda and by maintaining PMCs and the Rosgvardia. He even jailed and tried Girkin, who is completely in support of Putin's goals in Ukraine. Public protest and resistance movements are clamped down to an extreme that the west truly does not appreciate or comprehend. He's even been tampering with the mothers movement to cut off resistance there. Given the mass of that population, we'll see if that can continue. If something does bubble up from that side, it could indeed cost Putin his power. Given Putin's extreme totalitarianism and aggression, the only thing to do is just keep feeding munitions to Ukraine until something breaks in Russia. |
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VA, USA
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Posted: 1/31/2024 2:47:10 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: Mr. Nielsen argues that, while Russia is indeed unable to launch a full-scale invasion against NATO countries, it is quite capable of attempting to break the Alliance apart. Russia is interested in establishing a new geopolitical reality in which NATO ceases to exist and Russia can have bilateral relations with each country separately, not through an "umbrella" of an alliance. Russia might start by launching a small "military operation" on just one NATO country - Northern Finland seems a possible location. The scale of the strike should be enough to "trigger" Article 5, but not large enough for a guaranteed full-scale response by the NATO forces. In that case, Russia would watch NATO's response closely. If other NATO countries (and the US, in particular) will decide that it is not necessary to get involved due to the "minor" nature of the incident, that would effectively mean that NATO Alliance is over. And that opens a lot of favorable opportunities for Russia. If, on the other hand, NATO acts clearly and decisively and shows that the Alliance is indeed willing to go to war for a small piece of "insignificant" land, it is probable that Russia will back off. What do you think about this scenario? Source: Anders Puck Nielsen/YouTube 📸: The Guardian Bolded is exactly my concern. The US is trying to find every excuse imaginable not to confront Russia as it attacks various MATO countries and even downplays the importance of Ukraine (except when Repubs give Biden cover to do nothing, then he speaks bravely). Weakness invites aggression. My feeling is that a "small incursion" (northern Finland, Estonia) would be exactly the thing the NATO would welcome as it would allow them to show an aggressive shared response on NATO soil that would be politically acceptable. Especially when the Russian military has shown its weakness. I see the next Russian Imperial move to be Georgia -- not in NATO, previous Soviet possession, and too remote to engender a public outrage in the West. |
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Posted: 1/31/2024 2:51:31 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: 15 minutes ago, official Ukrainian air force message.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GFL_s8dWcAAW75t?format=jpg&name=small 3 solid hits.
lol.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GFMEaSlXoAAJErC?format=jpg&name=small What happens to the SAM in a situation like that |
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Posted: 1/31/2024 2:53:29 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Ukraine trusts Zaluzhny, the soldiers and the public both. If Zelensky dismisses him just to shake things up, it could be a disaster and the beginning of the end for Ukraine. Zaluzhny never concealed the challenges to overcome or what was needed to do so. Maybe Zelensky and the civilian government didn't want to hear that 500K new recruits/conscripts are needed, but Zaluzhny wasn't wrong. If Kyiv can't pay for them, well, it's their country on the line. They find a way to make it work, or they die. I think Zelensky and his team choked on that bone. I suspect that large financial aid from the west helped Kyiv conceal or fail to understand the scope of the shift that was needed. Civil services needed to be pulled back to very low levels and people sent to military work - support if not the front. At this point in time, the military should have more personnel on the payroll than the civilian side. If Kyiv has not made this shift, the failure is on Zelensky. I think Zaluzhny has made the best of a bad situation. Working with the civilian leadership, working with western partners, being the public face of the army, trying to balance the constraints of their situation with the demands of people in Kyiv, London, Berlin, Washington, etc. Trying to balance the actual situation in the field with the demands of those same people and western militaries who are not understanding the facts on the ground. Nobody's perfect, but I see little serious problem with Zaluzhny. The summer offensive in particular is not something that could have been successful, given the strength of the line they were attacking. AFU never had the tools they needed to breach the line, or to follow western doctrine. I think the western partners set him up to fail, honestly. Giving him some equipment but very limited, and no air support, then demanding that he break through the strongest defensive military line in the world was stupid, IMO. Zelensky must know he's rolling the dice on the existence of his country. Zelensky has done well with the information/diplomacy angle. But the AFU actions must always be best for Ukraine, not necessarily what western observers with no skin in the game tell them to do. It's a bad mess. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Originally Posted By MFP_4073: the purported change of military leadership at the highest levels in Ukraine is going to be an interesting development looks like this is happening ----------------------------------------- Zelensky to oust Ukraine’s top general amid tension over new mobilization By Isabelle Khurshudyan and John Hudson Updated January 31, 2024 at 10:25 a.m. EST|Published January 31, 2024 at 5:23 a.m. EST KYIV — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told his top commander, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, that he was firing him in a meeting on Monday, according to a senior official familiar with the conversation — a disruptive military shake-up amid Ukraine’s struggles on the battlefield and after months of friction between the president and the popular general. Zaluzhny remains in his post for now, but a formal presidential decree is expected to confirm his ousting nearly two years into Russia’s invasion and as Moscow’s forces appear to be gaining the strategic initiative on some parts of the front. On Monday, Zelensky’s spokesman, Serhiy Nykyforov, denied that Zaluzhny had been fired. “There is no subject of conversation,” Nykyforov told reporters. “There is no order. The president did not dismiss the commander in chief.” Nykyforov on Wednesday did not immediately reply to messages from The Washington Post seeking any updated comment. It is far from clear that any new commander will be able to improve Ukraine’s difficult situation on the battlefield without significantly more forces and weapons — precisely what Zaluzhny has demanded of Zelensky, adding tension to what was already a fraying relationship. Zaluzhny’s popularity — both within the military and among ordinary citizens — makes his removal a political gamble for Zelensky. It also poses strategic risks at a time when Russia has intensified its attacks and Western security assistance for Kyiv has slowed. The general has built strong rapport with his Western counterparts and has often been able to advocate directly for certain materiel and seek counsel on battlefield strategy. It wasunclear whether Zelensky and his team had planned for the dismissal to happen this week before details of Monday’s meeting leaked to some media and channels on the Telegram social media app. But tension between the men had been building for months. Last year’s highly anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive, using soldiers trained by NATO allies and with Western weapons and equipment, reclaimed little territory, falling far short of expectations. Zaluzhny and his American counterparts disagreed sharply over tactics, and the Ukrainian commander ultimately ignored U.S. advice to concentrate his forces, which he believed could have caused far higher casualties. In their conversation Monday, Zelensky told Zaluzhny that Ukrainians have grown tired of war and that the country’s international backers have also slowed military assistance, so perhaps a new commander would rejuvenate the situation, the person familiar with their conversation said. Two individuals spoke about the meeting on the condition of anonymity to be candid about the highly sensitive situation with unpredictable implications for the war and Ukraine’s security. Senior members of Zaluzhny’s staff are also expected to be removed, one person said. In Monday’s meeting, differences between the two boiled over because of disagreement about how many soldiers Ukraine needs to mobilize this year, according to the two people familiar with the exchange. Zaluzhny proposed mobilizing close to 500,000 troops, a figure Zelensky viewed as impractical given the scarcity of uniforms, guns and training facilities and potential challenges related to recruitment, the people said. Zelensky has also said publicly that Ukraine lacks the funds to pay so many new conscripts. Zaluzhny countered that Ukraine is already short of forces due to mounting casualties and needs to match 400,000 new soldiers that Russia plans to mobilize, one person familiar with the conversation said. Andrii, a deputy battalion commander, denounced Zaluzhny’s expected removal with an epithet. Andrii, like other soldiers, is being identified only by his first name because he was not authorized to speak publicly. Zaluzhny “has sensible thoughts on mobilization,” Andrii said. “People are like, ‘We don’t need mobilization, everything is just fine there,’ but they’re not … here. They don’t know what’s happening here.” It was not immediately clear who will replace the 50-year-old Zaluzhny. One leading candidate is Ukraine’s head of military intelligence, 38-year-old Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, potentially signaling a move toward asymmetric tactics, such as the drone strikes deep into Russian territory that Budanov often has ordered, in a war where the front lines have seen little change in more than a year. But Budanov, with a background in special forces, does not have experience as an army commander. Another option is Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, the 58-year-old commander of Ukraine’s ground forces, who was credited with leading the defense of Kyiv in the first month of the war and then orchestrating a successful counteroffensive in the northeastern Kharkiv region in fall 2022. But among rank-and-file soldiers in the military, Syrsky is especially disliked, considered by many to be a Soviet-style commander who kept forces under fire for too long in the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut when Kyiv should’ve withdrawn. Both Budanov and Syrsky are considered favorites of Zelensky and Andriy Yermak, the chief of the presidential office and Zelensky’s closest adviser. Closer to the front, however, there seems to be little appetite for change. “My personal opinion is you can’t do something like this right now — Zaluzhny is someone 80 percent of the military considers a good authority,” said Oleksandr, a battalion commander currently fighting in eastern Ukraine. “For what is he being removed? It’s not clear. And who will replace him? Syrsky? God, I hope not. No one in the army likes Syrsky,” Oleksandr added. Zaluzhny was offered another post but declined and plans to retire from the military, according to the senior official. Reached by The Post, Zaluzhny declined to comment. For now, he remains in the top job, and the formal order dismissing him could be delayed. Last year, the head of Zelensky’s faction in parliament announced that Oleksii Reznikov, then the defense minister, would be ousted, but Reznikov stayed in the post for months before being removed. “This is a catastrophic step,” Oleksandr said. “When this becomes official, we’re screwed. The morale of both the military and society will go way down.” Friction between Zelensky and Zaluzhny has been brewing for months, and the general has expected he could be dismissed since summer 2022, the person said. Zaluzhny has been Ukraine’s commander in chief since Russia’s invasion in February 2022, and, according to opinion polls, rivals Zelensky in popularity, making him a potential political threat if presidential elections were to take place. Elections are currently barred in Ukraine because of martial law but under normal conditions should have taken place this year. “There’s only one explanation: the Zelensky government is just putting his missteps … on Zaluzhny’s shoulders,” said a soldier currently fighting in the besieged eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka. “Zelensky is just very dependent on ratings and he understands completely that Zaluzhny’s rating right now is much higher than his own. And that’s it. I think that politics shouldn’t interfere with the military doing their work.” Though Ukrainian officials privately have hinted at distrust between Zaluzhny and Zelensky over the past year, the discord has spilled into open view in recent months. Last fall Zaluzhny referred to the war as a “stalemate” in an interview with the Economist magazine. Zelensky publicly rebuked those remarks. Another source of tension has been the gap between what Zaluzhny has requested for Ukraine’s military and what Kyiv’s political leaders have been able to draw from allies and partners, a second person familiar with the Monday meeting said. “He says in conversations with the minister of defense: ‘It’s not my job to get this; it’s your job,’” the person said. Proposed aid for Ukraine has stalled in Washington and Brussels because of internal political disputes in the United States and the European Union. House Republicans have blocked a White House request for an additional $60 billion related to the war in Ukraine. New Ukrainian military leadership is unlikely to change that, as the stalled security assistance has been tied to reaching a bipartisan deal for sweeping U.S. border policy changes. “I don’t know who will be next, what kind of decisions were made, but maybe they just want to hear some good news from the head commander, like, ‘Everything is going dandy, it’s cool,’ but that’s not going to happen,” said Andrii, the deputy battalion commander. Until now, Ukraine has enjoyed relative stability in its military ranks compared to its invading enemy. Russian President Vladimir Putin named Gen. Valery Gerasimov to the top job one year ago, dismissing Gen. Sergei Surovikin, who was in the post for just three months. “The Kyiv regime has many problems, and everything has gone wrong there, that’s for sure,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Wednesday when asked about Zaluzhny’s possible dismissal. “Obviously, the failed counteroffensive and problems at the front increase the disagreements between members of the Kyiv regime,” Peskov added. Hudson reported from Washington. Anastacia Galouchka and David L. Stern in Kyiv, Serhiy Morgunov in Warsaw and Natalia Abbakumova in Riga, Latvia, contributed to this report. --------------------------------------------------------- Ukraine trusts Zaluzhny, the soldiers and the public both. If Zelensky dismisses him just to shake things up, it could be a disaster and the beginning of the end for Ukraine. Zaluzhny never concealed the challenges to overcome or what was needed to do so. Maybe Zelensky and the civilian government didn't want to hear that 500K new recruits/conscripts are needed, but Zaluzhny wasn't wrong. If Kyiv can't pay for them, well, it's their country on the line. They find a way to make it work, or they die. I think Zelensky and his team choked on that bone. I suspect that large financial aid from the west helped Kyiv conceal or fail to understand the scope of the shift that was needed. Civil services needed to be pulled back to very low levels and people sent to military work - support if not the front. At this point in time, the military should have more personnel on the payroll than the civilian side. If Kyiv has not made this shift, the failure is on Zelensky. I think Zaluzhny has made the best of a bad situation. Working with the civilian leadership, working with western partners, being the public face of the army, trying to balance the constraints of their situation with the demands of people in Kyiv, London, Berlin, Washington, etc. Trying to balance the actual situation in the field with the demands of those same people and western militaries who are not understanding the facts on the ground. Nobody's perfect, but I see little serious problem with Zaluzhny. The summer offensive in particular is not something that could have been successful, given the strength of the line they were attacking. AFU never had the tools they needed to breach the line, or to follow western doctrine. I think the western partners set him up to fail, honestly. Giving him some equipment but very limited, and no air support, then demanding that he break through the strongest defensive military line in the world was stupid, IMO. Zelensky must know he's rolling the dice on the existence of his country. Zelensky has done well with the information/diplomacy angle. But the AFU actions must always be best for Ukraine, not necessarily what western observers with no skin in the game tell them to do. It's a bad mess. As capta has said, we know very little about the internal political situation in Ukraine. That being said, I have a few ideas about what's behind this. One, whether you like or not, Zelensky is the prime reason that the UAF met February 24th extremely ill prepared. We know from certain sources that much of the Army hasn't forgotten that, and that could be a reason behind initial tensions between Zelensky and Zaluzhny. Zaluzhny seems to have been going behind Zelensky's back, using Ukrainian SSO to conduct missions deep behind Russian lines in Crimea, Russia proper, and elsewhere. Allegedly, this may include the Nordstream attack. That certainly could be a reason behind the feud and decrease in trust. The Zaluzhny Economist article, though, seems to have been a large part of why the relationship truly went down hill. Zaluzhny didn't clear it with Ukrainian political leadership, and his use of the word "stalemate" utterly pissed off Zelensky. Personally, I haven't been overly impressed with Zaluzhny. I don't think it's the end of the world from a military perspective that he's seemingly gone. My main issue is with who replaces him. I'm not a fan of Syrsky, although he does seem to have played a role in finally convincing Zelensky of the need to switch to a defensive posture and create prepared defenses in depth, which is a good thing. I don't know why Budanov is even in the conversation, given that his background is in GUR recon teams, and he's likely never commanded anything more than a platoon or a company at most. |
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Posted: 1/31/2024 2:57:15 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Banditman: What happens to the SAM in a situation like that Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Banditman: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: 15 minutes ago, official Ukrainian air force message.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GFL_s8dWcAAW75t?format=jpg&name=small 3 solid hits.
lol.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GFMEaSlXoAAJErC?format=jpg&name=small What happens to the SAM in a situation like that If they survive they get a gold star for effort.
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Posted: 1/31/2024 3:04:19 PM EDT
[Last Edit: CarmelBytheSea]
[#13]
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Posted: 1/31/2024 3:13:43 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Exactly. This is where Putin's work on the civil side in the last 20 years pays off. He has suppressed all opposition so extensively even the lawyers for jailed opposition leaders get prosecuted. He has suppressed the press so extensively that the majority of the population have no access to outside/3rd party information. This keeps an effective lid on internal issues. Putin knows the history of 1916-1921 extremely well, far better than we do. Allowing an uprising from the military has been damped by cultural factors & propaganda and by maintaining PMCs and the Rosgvardia. He even jailed and tried Girkin, who is completely in support of Putin's goals in Ukraine. Public protest and resistance movements are clamped down to an extreme that the west truly does not appreciate or comprehend. He's even been tampering with the mothers movement to cut off resistance there. Given the mass of that population, we'll see if that can continue. If something does bubble up from that side, it could indeed cost Putin his power. Given Putin's extreme totalitarianism and aggression, the only thing to do is just keep feeding munitions to Ukraine until something breaks in Russia. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Originally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: Concur. My point is that Both the Russians and the Germans war efforts collapsed well before they had expended all of their theoretical military warfighting capability, and from the outside looking in, it is tricky to try to determine a national culmination by merely looking at combat force generation capability. Authoritarian governments are also really bad at knowing when to call it quits and will often go till something breaks not related directly to the frontline issues, usually when some factors not seen as major have combined to create unrecoverable strategic issues. Exactly. This is where Putin's work on the civil side in the last 20 years pays off. He has suppressed all opposition so extensively even the lawyers for jailed opposition leaders get prosecuted. He has suppressed the press so extensively that the majority of the population have no access to outside/3rd party information. This keeps an effective lid on internal issues. Putin knows the history of 1916-1921 extremely well, far better than we do. Allowing an uprising from the military has been damped by cultural factors & propaganda and by maintaining PMCs and the Rosgvardia. He even jailed and tried Girkin, who is completely in support of Putin's goals in Ukraine. Public protest and resistance movements are clamped down to an extreme that the west truly does not appreciate or comprehend. He's even been tampering with the mothers movement to cut off resistance there. Given the mass of that population, we'll see if that can continue. If something does bubble up from that side, it could indeed cost Putin his power. Given Putin's extreme totalitarianism and aggression, the only thing to do is just keep feeding munitions to Ukraine until something breaks in Russia. I believe that Putin is betting that he can outlast the west, and ultimately see the UAF collapse. To be honest, whether he's right or not remains to be seen. On the tactical level, the strategic objective that Russia is fighting the hardest for is taking the rest of Donetsk, and therefore the rest of the Donbas. In terms of territory, Russia's about as far from achieving that objective as it was in summer 2022 or so. At that time, they'd pushed out around Izyum, and they had a sizeable contingent from Lyman to Sviatohirsk that was seriously worrying. Had they managed to hold onto that while also taking Bakhmut, Sloviansk and Kramatorsk wouldn't be in a good situation. As best as I can tell, they're currently now trying to set up a pincer at some point between Vuhledar and Avdiivka, which will (in theory) result in them being able to attack the core "triangle" from the south while they attack west from Bakhmut. All of that is to say that they're pretty far from accomplishing even their minimalist objectives. Kherson, Zoporizhzhia, Dnipro, and Odessa are not in the conversation at this point. This is why we've seen a number of pro-Russian commentators shift away from talking about taking significant amounts of territory and shift towards discussing how to grind down and break the UAF. Overall, I think that's a tacit admission that if they don't succeed in doing that, Russia isn't getting more strategic territorial objectives. The largest priorities are that Ukraine fixes its mobilization system and that the west continues to ramp up production of munitions. If Ukraine continues to have difficulties getting bodies into uniforms and trained up to a an acceptable standard (by the standards of this war), and the west doesn't get its industry into gear fast enough, this can start to go badly for Ukraine. I'm not saying that this is going to happen, but it's a distinct possibility at this point in time. |
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Posted: 1/31/2024 3:16:05 PM EDT
[#15]
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Posted: 1/31/2024 3:20:20 PM EDT
[#16]
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Posted: 1/31/2024 3:24:49 PM EDT
[#17]
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Posted: 1/31/2024 3:27:16 PM EDT
[#18]
All the Democrats have to do is agree to extremely reasonable requests by the GOP regarding the Southern Border and they'll be able to fund Ukraine.
Nothing the House GOP is asking for regarding the Southern Border or even in terms of an auditor general for Ukraine is unreasonable in any way whatsoever. This thing where the media and everyone is painting as though the GOP are anti-Ukraine is absurd even if some GOP voters (out of millions) here might be. In truth, it's really the Democrats who are holding up Ukraine funding due to their very unreasonable position regarding the U.S. border. |
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Posted: 1/31/2024 3:27:37 PM EDT
[#19]
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Posted: 1/31/2024 3:33:40 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jaehaerys: I believe that Putin is betting that he can outlast the west, and ultimately see the UAF collapse. To be honest, whether he's right or not remains to be seen. On the tactical level, the strategic objective that Russia is fighting the hardest for is taking the rest of Donetsk, and therefore the rest of the Donbas. In terms of territory, Russia's about as far from achieving that objective as it was in summer 2022 or so. At that time, they'd pushed out around Izyum, and they had a sizeable contingent from Lyman to Sviatohirsk that was seriously worrying. Had they managed to hold onto that while also taking Bakhmut, Sloviansk and Kramatorsk wouldn't be in a good situation. As best as I can tell, they're currently now trying to set up a pincer at some point between Vuhledar and Avdiivka, which will (in theory) result in them being able to attack the core "triangle" from the south while they attack west from Bakhmut. All of that is to say that they're pretty far from accomplishing even their minimalist objectives. Kherson, Zoporizhzhia, Dnipro, and Odessa are not in the conversation at this point. This is why we've seen a number of pro-Russian commentators shift away from talking about taking significant amounts of territory and shift towards discussing how to grind down and break the UAF. Overall, I think that's a tacit admission that if they don't succeed in doing that, Russia isn't getting more strategic territorial objectives. The largest priorities are that Ukraine fixes its mobilization system and that the west continues to ramp up production of munitions. If Ukraine continues to have difficulties getting bodies into uniforms and trained up to a an acceptable standard (by the standards of this war), and the west doesn't get its industry into gear fast enough, this can start to go badly for Ukraine. I'm not saying that this is going to happen, but it's a distinct possibility at this point in time. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jaehaerys: Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Originally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: Concur. My point is that Both the Russians and the Germans war efforts collapsed well before they had expended all of their theoretical military warfighting capability, and from the outside looking in, it is tricky to try to determine a national culmination by merely looking at combat force generation capability. Authoritarian governments are also really bad at knowing when to call it quits and will often go till something breaks not related directly to the frontline issues, usually when some factors not seen as major have combined to create unrecoverable strategic issues. Exactly. This is where Putin's work on the civil side in the last 20 years pays off. He has suppressed all opposition so extensively even the lawyers for jailed opposition leaders get prosecuted. He has suppressed the press so extensively that the majority of the population have no access to outside/3rd party information. This keeps an effective lid on internal issues. Putin knows the history of 1916-1921 extremely well, far better than we do. Allowing an uprising from the military has been damped by cultural factors & propaganda and by maintaining PMCs and the Rosgvardia. He even jailed and tried Girkin, who is completely in support of Putin's goals in Ukraine. Public protest and resistance movements are clamped down to an extreme that the west truly does not appreciate or comprehend. He's even been tampering with the mothers movement to cut off resistance there. Given the mass of that population, we'll see if that can continue. If something does bubble up from that side, it could indeed cost Putin his power. Given Putin's extreme totalitarianism and aggression, the only thing to do is just keep feeding munitions to Ukraine until something breaks in Russia. I believe that Putin is betting that he can outlast the west, and ultimately see the UAF collapse. To be honest, whether he's right or not remains to be seen. On the tactical level, the strategic objective that Russia is fighting the hardest for is taking the rest of Donetsk, and therefore the rest of the Donbas. In terms of territory, Russia's about as far from achieving that objective as it was in summer 2022 or so. At that time, they'd pushed out around Izyum, and they had a sizeable contingent from Lyman to Sviatohirsk that was seriously worrying. Had they managed to hold onto that while also taking Bakhmut, Sloviansk and Kramatorsk wouldn't be in a good situation. As best as I can tell, they're currently now trying to set up a pincer at some point between Vuhledar and Avdiivka, which will (in theory) result in them being able to attack the core "triangle" from the south while they attack west from Bakhmut. All of that is to say that they're pretty far from accomplishing even their minimalist objectives. Kherson, Zoporizhzhia, Dnipro, and Odessa are not in the conversation at this point. This is why we've seen a number of pro-Russian commentators shift away from talking about taking significant amounts of territory and shift towards discussing how to grind down and break the UAF. Overall, I think that's a tacit admission that if they don't succeed in doing that, Russia isn't getting more strategic territorial objectives. The largest priorities are that Ukraine fixes its mobilization system and that the west continues to ramp up production of munitions. If Ukraine continues to have difficulties getting bodies into uniforms and trained up to a an acceptable standard (by the standards of this war), and the west doesn't get its industry into gear fast enough, this can start to go badly for Ukraine. I'm not saying that this is going to happen, but it's a distinct possibility at this point in time. It seems to me that if Ukraine started to face a serious manpower shortage, a rapid infusion of some of our better weapons systems could more than compensate. Of course, I'd really like to see that happen anyway, right now if not sooner. |
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Posted: 1/31/2024 3:40:35 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
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Posted: 1/31/2024 3:41:41 PM EDT
[Last Edit: KaerMorhenResident]
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
One of the things that I think is happening a lot in this conflict is that everyone wounded is being counted as a KIA. I would believe that in that period that there were 11,000 KIA & Wounded because typically in a conflict you have three wounded soldiers for every one that is KIA, so that would make sense. Otherwise, you'd be talking about 11,000 KIA and around 33,000 wounded, which just doesn't seem realistic to me in that time frame. As Ukraine switches to the defensive posture (which they need to do more quickly than they are in my opinion) than it's going to be really easy to rack up a 3 to 1 KIA ratio since offensive operations are much more casuality intensive and my guess is that we haven't seen anything yet in terms of Russian offensive operations in 2024. I suspect the Russians will conduct mutiple limited offenses across a broad front (that seems to be the Soviet doctrine of doing things that we've seen both Ukraine and Russia hold to) and the Russian's can't coordinate with their air force worth a damn thankfully. Every time I see an operation involving Russian air assets it seems as though they are performing strategic bombing from orders that come from high up rather than coordinating to provide any CAS for Russian ground units. In short, if a Russian ground unit wants CAS they're pretty much SOL...from the looks of it. This probably shouldn't have surprised me, because the Russians don't have the kind of joint operational command and experience that the West does with their miltiary very much in their own silos. What concerns me is Zelensky's apparent refusal or at least reluctance to do mass mobilization and I just get the impression that Zelensky is really against switching to a defensive posture in 2024. I don't know if Zelensky really appreciates that Ukraine isn't going to be able to capture huge sections of territory in 2024 and needs a building year. Also, as politically unpopular as mass moblization might be the units at the front need their defensive positions to be completed, occuppied, and they need some gosh darn troop rotation at the front. They've got men who have been fighting for months without much of a break and that's not good. It will be interesting to see all the inner conflicts with the Ukraine miltiary that took place once there are tell all books after this conflict. Every military has these type of conflicts with personalities and if you go back and read about WW2 you'll see a lot of these kind of inner differences and conflicts between egos in what is a pretty stressful high stakes situation. I can only imagine how heated some of their discussions get and what kind of venting is done by some of the key Generals and political actors in Ukraine behind the scenes. Keep in mind though, that Russia very obviously has had these same type of conflicts and inner turmoil issues though and I think the media really fail to covey that these types of things are just sort of the norm of human interaction and not some sign that Ukraine is breaking apart or isn't unified. Just my two cents. I know that some here will now attack me for not being 110% in lockstep with all positive propaganda about the imminent Ukraine victory. This going to be a messy and long conflict if the U.S. and Ukraine aren't a little wiser and more realistic about things. I maintain that we're going to get a 1939 Winter War ending to this conflict and I hope that both Ukraine and Russia recognize that before more pointless carnage is endured by both to make them realize it. |
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Posted: 1/31/2024 3:55:01 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By absael: I'm hoping that we and other countries are ready to, at a minimum, ramp up support at a rate calculated to prevent the situation from getting completely out of hand. It seems to me that if Ukraine started to face a serious manpower shortage, a rapid infusion of some of our better weapons systems could more than compensate. Of course, I'd really like to see that happen anyway, right now if not sooner. Honestly, Ukraine isn't in a position to conduct offensive operations this year so the cost in terms of armor and offensive weapons can be saved to offset the cost of strategic weapons systems that can be used to disrupt Russian logistics and make it difficult for the Russians to mass the hardware and men needed to conduct what I believe will be a broad front offensive this year by Russia. The other thing I think Ukraine can do to be more economical money wise is to really amp up their sabotage missions inside Russia proper. They've got Russian speakers who can blend into Ukraine like Canadians could blend in the USA. There shouldn't be an electrical grid that isn't down inside Russia or a train line that doesn't need repair. Disrupt, disrupt, disrupt, and to give credit where credit is due Ukraine has carried out some limited sabotage missions, but now is the time to really amp that, because I highly doubt that the Russians have security that's really good at every vulnerable point of infrastructure or even with their weapon factories. With sanctions in place even sabotaging critical tooling in a weapons plant could be a massive deal and it really shouldn't be too hard to develop a network even of Russian sabotours and spies thanks to that nation's serious corruption issues. Switching to a defensive posture is a lot cheaper. It allows them to pull back their armor, get it repaired, concentrate on things like new barrels for artillery and training up pilots for the F-16s that they're going to get so that when they do have them operational they're not just thrown in combat right off the bat. Improve their integrated air defense systems over that key infrastructure they're hoping to build for those new defense plants. Maybe put more money into civilian air raid warnings and shelter systems. Root out some more corruption, conscript and train more folks, work out a better system for troop rotation. Let the Russian bang their heads into the wall for a year straight and see if that knocks any sense into them so that we can get to the bargaining table in 2025. This is a critical year and if things are handled well I really do believe there is a path to peace at the end of it that ultimately results in a happy ending for Ukraine. |
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Posted: 1/31/2024 3:59:28 PM EDT
[Last Edit: CarmelBytheSea]
[#24]
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Posted: 1/31/2024 4:03:11 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 4xGM300m]
[#25]
   
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Posted: 1/31/2024 4:05:06 PM EDT
[#26]
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Posted: 1/31/2024 4:28:59 PM EDT
[#27]
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Posted: 1/31/2024 4:32:40 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 4xGM300m]
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GFLhnCOX0AE-S6B?format=jpg&name=large https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GFLhnCWXkAApRAM?format=jpg&name=large https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GFLhnCQXMAAP02t?format=jpg&name=large https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GFLhnCPXEAEsKzQ?format=jpg&name=large The sheer size of these abandoned industrial buildings in UA is really amazing. |
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Posted: 1/31/2024 4:38:40 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
An RF jammer with enough power to do that will seriously mess with a person (and with that antenna, it will go directly into/thru the person wearing it). It would be much better to put it on a vehicle (or tripod if in a trench). |
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Posted: 1/31/2024 4:40:44 PM EDT
[#30]
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Posted: 1/31/2024 4:44:42 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By KaerMorhenResident: Just my two cents. I know that some here will now attack me for not being 110% in lockstep with all positive propaganda about the imminent Ukraine victory. This going to be a messy and long conflict if the U.S. and Ukraine aren't a little wiser and more realistic about things. I maintain that we're going to get a 1939 Winter War ending to this conflict and I hope that both Ukraine and Russia recognize that before more pointless carnage is endured by both to make them realize it. Except the combatants do not believe it's pointless. Ukraine is fighting to stave off genocide, that's pretty clear. Russia is fully committed to achieving the defeat of independent Ukraine through the destruction of war, and they fully believe that is an achievable goal. At the moment, all signs are pointing in their favor. But since Ukraine is fighting to stave off genocide, they can't stop and say "we'll accept our losses up to now, just end the war" because that wouldn't accomplish Russia's goals and it wouldn't guarantee Ukraine survives. So war continues. Unless both sides becomes convinced their goal is not achievable, there's no basis to start negotiations. Since Russia can't accept any security guarantees for Ukraine, there's no basis for any negotiations. |
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Posted: 1/31/2024 4:57:49 PM EDT
[#32]
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Posted: 1/31/2024 4:58:26 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: # The GUR cyber attack "knocked down" the Russian Defense Ministry's special communications server The Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine informs - on January 30, 2024, as a result of a cyber attack, the server of the Ministry of Defense of the aggressor state of Russia, which was used for special communication, was "disrupted". The operation in the enemy's cyberspace was carried out by specialists of the GUR of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. As a result of the cyber attack, the exchange of information between the units of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, which used the specified server located in Moscow, was stopped. The software on the attacked server was approved by the FSB of the Russian Federation as meeting state information protection standards. Appropriate software was installed at various strategic facilities of the Russian public sector, in particular - military. Cyber operation - ongoing. Glory to Ukraine! https://t.me/DIUkraine/3386 Cyberattack, good autotranslate  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ERa9j-_7qshttps://pbs.twimg.com/media/GE1tdj7XgAA3BY1?format=jpg&name=large https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GE1td1YWAAALggy?format=jpg&name=large https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GE1teH9WIAAXgjp?format=jpg&name=large https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GE1teazXoAAu5xI?format=jpg&name=small https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GFHSxMoWYAEckfM?format=jpg&name=large https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GFHSxMpWEAIQzjc?format=jpg&name=large I'm at a loss for words. Every time I think I've hit the bottom of Russian incompetence and stupidity I discover another gaping chasm to plumb. Sweet baby Jesus . . . these guys are idiots. |
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Posted: 1/31/2024 5:05:02 PM EDT
[#34]
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Posted: 1/31/2024 5:05:20 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By planemaker: Either that pilot is really bad (maybe just inexperienced on fixed-wings) or the c.g. is too far aft. Way too much PIO. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By planemaker: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Either that pilot is really bad (maybe just inexperienced on fixed-wings) or the c.g. is too far aft. Way too much PIO. |
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Posted: 1/31/2024 5:06:15 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Capta]
[#36]
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Posted: 1/31/2024 5:19:39 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
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Posted: 1/31/2024 5:43:46 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: BREAKING - WOW, SHIT HIT THE FAN FOR A MEDIUM-SIZED RUSSIAN ATTACK YESTERDAY! |
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Posted: 1/31/2024 6:05:31 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: BREAKING - WOW, SHIT HIT THE FAN FOR A MEDIUM-SIZED RUSSIAN ATTACK YESTERDAY! Edit - Beat! That is alot of damage for mostly fpv drones.
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Posted: 1/31/2024 6:10:32 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Stoltenberg has been remarkably clear-headed, rare among the bureaucrats that lead governments & global institutions. There should be more like him. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Originally Posted By RockNwood: Stoltenvrfg has been a strong voice in NATO and globally for Ukraine. Kudos good sir!
Stoltenberg has been remarkably clear-headed, rare among the bureaucrats that lead governments & global institutions. There should be more like him. How did he get into office? Obviously he is loose cannon on the deck. |
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Posted: 1/31/2024 6:18:19 PM EDT
[#41]
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Posted: 1/31/2024 6:20:35 PM EDT
[#42]
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Posted: 1/31/2024 6:25:11 PM EDT
[#43]
Yeah, CNN, I know. However, here's an interview with Budanov.
. He is not worried about uncertainties in the US and a second Trump Administration. Says that Trump is an experienced person who has fallen and gotten back up again, and that this is a very serious trait. Personally, I think Budanov and others within the Ukrainian government/military recognize that bad mouthing Trump gets them nowhere, in spite of Trump saying this month that he trusts Putin more than US intelligence. Budanov is a smart man, and Trump is a simpleton who can be easily manipulated by people who pump up his ego. I have zero faith in Trump with regards to Ukraine (and everything else, for that matter), but that's what I think is going on here. Enough Trump, though. . He acknowledges Ukraine's desperate need for more weapons and ammo. Artillery systems are at the top of the list, with Ukraine needing a sharp increase in the number of guns, regardless of their age and type. Artillery shells are a very decisive factor in this war, in terms of quantity and not so much quality. To me, it looks like if it's capable of lobbing artillery shells down range at the Russians, the Ukrainians want it. . Interestingly, he believes that Ukraine and Russia are about even when it comes to the drone war. That contrasts with reports we've read of Russia having a sizeable advantage. That might indicate that, like I speculated awhile ago, the reports of massive amounts of Russian FPVs were based on the accounts of Ukrainian officers in certain sectors, and were not necessarily applicable to the entirety of the war. Still, this is an interview with an intelligence officer, so best to take everything with a grain of salt. . Also interestingly, he wants to see ground attack aircraft like the A-10 in Ukrainian hands. . There is a plan for long distance strikes that includes all the critical infrastructure facilities and military facilities of the Russian Federation. Personally, the long distance strike aspect of this war on the part of Ukraine is one of the most fascinating aspects. So, I can't wait to see what Budanov has cooked up. I wonder if the Chinese Shaheed knockoffs play a role... . The next six months of the war are going to be interesting, he says, with the period seeing the end of Russia's ongoing push along the frontline. |
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Posted: 1/31/2024 6:36:19 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jaehaerys: Yeah, CNN, I know. However, here's an interview with Budanov. . He is not worried about uncertainties in the US and a second Trump Administration. Says that Trump is an experienced person who has fallen and gotten back up again, and that this is a very serious trait. Personally, I think Budanov and others within the Ukrainian government/military recognize that bad mouthing Trump gets them nowhere, in spite of Trump saying this month that he trusts Putin more than US intelligence. Budanov is a smart man, and Trump is a simpleton who can be easily manipulated by people who pump up his ego. I have zero faith in Trump with regards to Ukraine (and everything else, for that matter), but that's what I think is going on here. Enough Trump, though. . He acknowledges Ukraine's desperate need for more weapons and ammo. Artillery systems are at the top of the list, with Ukraine needing a sharp increase in the number of guns, regardless of their age and type. Artillery shells are a very decisive factor in this war, in terms of quantity and not so much quality. To me, it looks like if it's capable of lobbing artillery shells down range at the Russians, the Ukrainians want it. . Interestingly, he believes that Ukraine and Russia are about even when it comes to the drone war. That contrasts with reports we've read of Russia having a sizeable advantage. That might indicate that, like I speculated awhile ago, the reports of massive amounts of Russian FPVs were based on the accounts of Ukrainian officers in certain sectors, and were not necessarily applicable to the entirety of the war. Still, this is an interview with an intelligence officer, so best to take everything with a grain of salt. . Also interestingly, he wants to see ground attack aircraft like the A-10 in Ukrainian hands. . There is a plan for long distance strikes that includes all the critical infrastructure facilities and military facilities of the Russian Federation. Personally, the long distance strike aspect of this war on the part of Ukraine is one of the most fascinating aspects. So, I can't wait to see what Budanov has cooked up. I wonder if the Chinese Shaheed knockoffs play a role... . The next six months of the war are going to be interesting, he says, with the period seeing the end of Russia's ongoing push along the frontline. Could you imagine the videos of a-10s running that stuck convoy at the start of all this? 
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Posted: 1/31/2024 6:40:12 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By burnka871: Could you imagine the videos of a-10s running that stuck convoy at the start of all this? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By burnka871: Originally Posted By Jaehaerys: Yeah, CNN, I know. However, here's an interview with Budanov. . He is not worried about uncertainties in the US and a second Trump Administration. Says that Trump is an experienced person who has fallen and gotten back up again, and that this is a very serious trait. Personally, I think Budanov and others within the Ukrainian government/military recognize that bad mouthing Trump gets them nowhere, in spite of Trump saying this month that he trusts Putin more than US intelligence. Budanov is a smart man, and Trump is a simpleton who can be easily manipulated by people who pump up his ego. I have zero faith in Trump with regards to Ukraine (and everything else, for that matter), but that's what I think is going on here. Enough Trump, though. . He acknowledges Ukraine's desperate need for more weapons and ammo. Artillery systems are at the top of the list, with Ukraine needing a sharp increase in the number of guns, regardless of their age and type. Artillery shells are a very decisive factor in this war, in terms of quantity and not so much quality. To me, it looks like if it's capable of lobbing artillery shells down range at the Russians, the Ukrainians want it. . Interestingly, he believes that Ukraine and Russia are about even when it comes to the drone war. That contrasts with reports we've read of Russia having a sizeable advantage. That might indicate that, like I speculated awhile ago, the reports of massive amounts of Russian FPVs were based on the accounts of Ukrainian officers in certain sectors, and were not necessarily applicable to the entirety of the war. Still, this is an interview with an intelligence officer, so best to take everything with a grain of salt. . Also interestingly, he wants to see ground attack aircraft like the A-10 in Ukrainian hands. . There is a plan for long distance strikes that includes all the critical infrastructure facilities and military facilities of the Russian Federation. Personally, the long distance strike aspect of this war on the part of Ukraine is one of the most fascinating aspects. So, I can't wait to see what Budanov has cooked up. I wonder if the Chinese Shaheed knockoffs play a role... . The next six months of the war are going to be interesting, he says, with the period seeing the end of Russia's ongoing push along the frontline. Could you imagine the videos of a-10s running that stuck convoy at the start of all this? During the opening days of the war, Russian air defense was so unprepared that Bayraktars (a system that hasn't been used much since due to being vulnerable to air defense) were tearing up Russian convoys. If they had A-10s from the get-go, there's no doubt in my mind that they would've done some work. |
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Posted: 1/31/2024 6:45:23 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jaehaerys: Yeah, CNN, I know. However, here's an interview with Budanov. . He is not worried about uncertainties in the US and a second Trump Administration. Says that Trump is an experienced person who has fallen and gotten back up again, and that this is a very serious trait. Personally, I think Budanov and others within the Ukrainian government/military recognize that bad mouthing Trump gets them nowhere, in spite of Trump saying this month that he trusts Putin more than US intelligence. Budanov is a smart man, and Trump is a simpleton who can be easily manipulated by people who pump up his ego. I have zero faith in Trump with regards to Ukraine (and everything else, for that matter), but that's what I think is going on here. Enough Trump, though. . He acknowledges Ukraine's desperate need for more weapons and ammo. Artillery systems are at the top of the list, with Ukraine needing a sharp increase in the number of guns, regardless of their age and type. Artillery shells are a very decisive factor in this war, in terms of quantity and not so much quality. To me, it looks like if it's capable of lobbing artillery shells down range at the Russians, the Ukrainians want it. . Interestingly, he believes that Ukraine and Russia are about even when it comes to the drone war. That contrasts with reports we've read of Russia having a sizeable advantage. That might indicate that, like I speculated awhile ago, the reports of massive amounts of Russian FPVs were based on the accounts of Ukrainian officers in certain sectors, and were not necessarily applicable to the entirety of the war. Still, this is an interview with an intelligence officer, so best to take everything with a grain of salt. . Also interestingly, he wants to see ground attack aircraft like the A-10 in Ukrainian hands. . There is a plan for long distance strikes that includes all the critical infrastructure facilities and military facilities of the Russian Federation. Personally, the long distance strike aspect of this war on the part of Ukraine is one of the most fascinating aspects. So, I can't wait to see what Budanov has cooked up. I wonder if the Chinese Shaheed knockoffs play a role... . The next six months of the war are going to be interesting, he says, with the period seeing the end of Russia's ongoing push along the frontline. Send all remaining M198. Send more M109s. Send all remaining DPICM, and another 100K HE shells. So let it be written, so let it be done. 
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Posted: 1/31/2024 6:50:12 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Send all remaining M198. Send more M109s. Send all remaining DPICM, and another 100K HE shells. So let it be written, so let it be done. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Originally Posted By Jaehaerys: Yeah, CNN, I know. However, here's an interview with Budanov. . He is not worried about uncertainties in the US and a second Trump Administration. Says that Trump is an experienced person who has fallen and gotten back up again, and that this is a very serious trait. Personally, I think Budanov and others within the Ukrainian government/military recognize that bad mouthing Trump gets them nowhere, in spite of Trump saying this month that he trusts Putin more than US intelligence. Budanov is a smart man, and Trump is a simpleton who can be easily manipulated by people who pump up his ego. I have zero faith in Trump with regards to Ukraine (and everything else, for that matter), but that's what I think is going on here. Enough Trump, though. . He acknowledges Ukraine's desperate need for more weapons and ammo. Artillery systems are at the top of the list, with Ukraine needing a sharp increase in the number of guns, regardless of their age and type. Artillery shells are a very decisive factor in this war, in terms of quantity and not so much quality. To me, it looks like if it's capable of lobbing artillery shells down range at the Russians, the Ukrainians want it. . Interestingly, he believes that Ukraine and Russia are about even when it comes to the drone war. That contrasts with reports we've read of Russia having a sizeable advantage. That might indicate that, like I speculated awhile ago, the reports of massive amounts of Russian FPVs were based on the accounts of Ukrainian officers in certain sectors, and were not necessarily applicable to the entirety of the war. Still, this is an interview with an intelligence officer, so best to take everything with a grain of salt. . Also interestingly, he wants to see ground attack aircraft like the A-10 in Ukrainian hands. . There is a plan for long distance strikes that includes all the critical infrastructure facilities and military facilities of the Russian Federation. Personally, the long distance strike aspect of this war on the part of Ukraine is one of the most fascinating aspects. So, I can't wait to see what Budanov has cooked up. I wonder if the Chinese Shaheed knockoffs play a role... . The next six months of the war are going to be interesting, he says, with the period seeing the end of Russia's ongoing push along the frontline. Send all remaining M198. Send more M109s. Send all remaining DPICM, and another 100K HE shells. So let it be written, so let it be done.  Attached File |
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AL, USA
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Posted: 1/31/2024 6:50:51 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryI appreciate when you pop in geopolitical threads and the contributions you make to them. It may seem like you are yelling in the wind sometimes but lots of us def read them |
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Posted: 1/31/2024 6:53:15 PM EDT
[#49]
Russians watching the failed assault video above.
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Posted: 1/31/2024 6:58:35 PM EDT
[#50]
Sorry for not being Claire.
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