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Posted: 2/13/2024 1:06:17 PM EST
[#1]
Originally Posted By lorazepam: I was talking to some folks that are in a small investment club about the future of drones in warfare, and how much it has/will change warfare, and every one of them was clueless on how drones were being used. It only took a few videos to show them what the score was, and one guy admitted he thought the whole war was just a money laundering scheme, and not actually trench combat, and had no clue russia has lost almost 400,000 troops. People have the greatest access to information in history, and have less knowledge and awareness than ever.  Originally Posted By DK-Prof: I have said it many times before, and unfortunately it gets proven again and again. The internet (and the information age in general) has made smart people smarter, and has made dumb people dumber. It is very depressing. I am encountering the same in my area, all we can do is explain and show some evidence in the form of videos that indicate how high intensity this conflict is. |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 1:06:21 PM EST
[#2]
🪖#Optiver
🐈#Infographics   Apparently, the 3rd Special Brigade arrives in Avdeevka to strengthen the garrison. Although it is difficult to call this formation a brigade, it is more like a division. Moreover, this is the first brigade that regularly includes a UAV battalion (for example, the Marines have one UAV battalion for the entire corps). The infographic shows units from the brigade structure. And yes, these are not all units and not all existing chevrons. The rest can be found in the encyclopedia. How serious this is or not, let everyone decide for themselves. https://t.me/z_arhiv/26004 |
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WI, USA
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Posted: 2/13/2024 1:06:36 PM EST
[Last Edit: Lieh-tzu]
[#3]
I haven't kept up with Russian Media Monitor as much lately, here's a big-picture update from one of Solovyov's guests. Russia will fight against the west for years to come, and Ukraine will join them after Russia wins the SMO.
 Apti Alaudinov says Russia will fight America and Europe until 2030 Orange Woman Bad talks about the Tucker Carlson interview. Russians are so much more intelligent than Americans! Their eventual victory and world primacy is inevitable!  Margarita Simonyan cried watching Tucker Carlson's interview with Putin |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 1:09:52 PM EST
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: This point I've been repeating since the beginning, and most people don't think about this issue at all. People talking about NATO expansion, or border dispute, or merely an irrelevant Slavic internecine conflict just have no idea about the full geopolitical implications, and it starts with nuclear nonproliferation. Every government knows, even if nobody among the people talk about it, that Russia guaranteed Ukraine's sovereignty & territorial integrity when Ukraine agreed to give up their nukes. Ukraine surrendered the nukes, Russia invaded. This only ends one way, if Russia is allowed to win (or even partially win). Every small, vulnerable country that feels at risk that has the ability to do so will seek to develop their own nukes to stave off aggressors. Nuclear nonproliferation is dead. Putin has said that this is actually a good thing, on the belief that it will deter American imperialism. It's a bad thing. It will dramatically increase the likelihood of terrorist groups stealing a nuke or taking over a facility with nuclear weapons or production. While it may deter some aggression, the probability of conflicts turning nuclear or of terrorist groups getting and using a nuke increases to near one eventually. And the worst thing is that the political leaders are completely ignoring this aspect. Even though the Budapest Memo was completely and totally toothless, nuclear nonproliferation cannot survive a successful Russian invasion of Ukraine. Any leader in the world who believes in nonproliferation ought to be pointing at the Budapest Memo and giving Ukraine full support - in the UN, in sanctions on Russia, in aid to Ukraine. But the leaders of nations are silent, as if they've already given up. The leaders of free countries in Europe, North America, East Asia, South Pacific should all be pushing nonproliferation through diplomatic channels to achieve unanimous international support for Ukraine, but it's not happening. These leaders have allowed Putin to frame the conflict as just another US-Russia faceoff, even though it goes far deeper. It's a complete breakdown of the old geopolitical order.    I'm just going to shut up about it, because this was all out there literally two years ago. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: This will spread everywhere if we decide to not support a Ukrainian win.
Poland may obtain nuclear weapons in a few years This was stated by Polish General Jarosław Kraszewski in an interview with RMF FM. He called such a scenario quite realistic - within the framework of NATO's Nuclear sharing program. "I consider having such an arsenal as a task for several years. I hope it will happen," he concluded. To the comment that there is a cost to owning and using nuclear weapons, General Kraszewski responded that "peace and security have no price." This point I've been repeating since the beginning, and most people don't think about this issue at all. People talking about NATO expansion, or border dispute, or merely an irrelevant Slavic internecine conflict just have no idea about the full geopolitical implications, and it starts with nuclear nonproliferation. Every government knows, even if nobody among the people talk about it, that Russia guaranteed Ukraine's sovereignty & territorial integrity when Ukraine agreed to give up their nukes. Ukraine surrendered the nukes, Russia invaded. This only ends one way, if Russia is allowed to win (or even partially win). Every small, vulnerable country that feels at risk that has the ability to do so will seek to develop their own nukes to stave off aggressors. Nuclear nonproliferation is dead. Putin has said that this is actually a good thing, on the belief that it will deter American imperialism. It's a bad thing. It will dramatically increase the likelihood of terrorist groups stealing a nuke or taking over a facility with nuclear weapons or production. While it may deter some aggression, the probability of conflicts turning nuclear or of terrorist groups getting and using a nuke increases to near one eventually. And the worst thing is that the political leaders are completely ignoring this aspect. Even though the Budapest Memo was completely and totally toothless, nuclear nonproliferation cannot survive a successful Russian invasion of Ukraine. Any leader in the world who believes in nonproliferation ought to be pointing at the Budapest Memo and giving Ukraine full support - in the UN, in sanctions on Russia, in aid to Ukraine. But the leaders of nations are silent, as if they've already given up. The leaders of free countries in Europe, North America, East Asia, South Pacific should all be pushing nonproliferation through diplomatic channels to achieve unanimous international support for Ukraine, but it's not happening. These leaders have allowed Putin to frame the conflict as just another US-Russia faceoff, even though it goes far deeper. It's a complete breakdown of the old geopolitical order. I'm just going to shut up about it, because this was all out there literally two years ago. Excellent rant! You perfectly frame the nuclear issue and scope of consequences. As you point out, regardless of the weasel words the Budapest (and all related) agreements IMPLICITLY depended on protection of superpowers’ nuclear umbrella which must always be underpinned by conventional forces. If we abandon enforcement of those agreements we are saying our defense umbrella is shit because we are scared to use the requisite ESCALATING 😱😱😱☢️☢️☢️ force before nukes come into play. If you won’t use conventional force and rely solely on the nuclear capability you will lose piecemeal. Which we see happening all over Caucasus, Balkans, Africa, and Eastern Europe. |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 1:10:37 PM EST
[#5]
lol, so modest.
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Posted: 2/13/2024 1:16:56 PM EST
[#6]
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Posted: 2/13/2024 1:24:04 PM EST
[#7]
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Posted: 2/13/2024 1:25:56 PM EST
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Easterner: Passed pistol qualifications today. Shot 10 rounds at 25 meters for part one. Squeaked by with a 76/100. The second part was "El Presidente" at 7 meters. I had to re-do the second part twice as I was at about 13.5 seconds with a Sig 320. That was only the second time shooting a Sig.  Someone loaned me a Glock 17 for the third attempt which was a 10.13. Passing was under 12 seconds.  My Glock 17 is waiting for me in the armory once I get my ID stamped.  Fantastic! Congratulations. I really liked the P320 the couple of times I shot it. But can’t beat years of familiarity on Glocks. Besides the SIG mags cost a nut each! |
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USA
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Posted: 2/13/2024 1:31:51 PM EST
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: This point I've been repeating since the beginning, and most people don't think about this issue at all. People talking about NATO expansion, or border dispute, or merely an irrelevant Slavic internecine conflict just have no idea about the full geopolitical implications, and it starts with nuclear nonproliferation. Every government knows, even if nobody among the people talk about it, that Russia guaranteed Ukraine's sovereignty & territorial integrity when Ukraine agreed to give up their nukes. Ukraine surrendered the nukes, Russia invaded. Non-proliferation died with Muammar Gaddafi. In 2003 the guy literally loaded his program up on pallets and we sent C-17s to pick it up. Less than a decade later "We came, we saw, he died." |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 1:33:37 PM EST
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: lol, so modest.
Hey if the enemy is willing to call their V2 rocket “hypersonic” Imma gonna run with dat in my marketing! Vlad boss, our missile kissed hypersonic for a few moments, So it is now a Hypersonic weapon! The West will shake in their Crocs. |
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USA
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Posted: 2/13/2024 1:33:51 PM EST
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By DK-Prof: I have said it many times before, and unfortunately it gets proven again and again. The internet (and the information age in general) has made smart people smarter, and has made dumb people dumber. It is very depressing. It has made smart people think they are smarter. That is not the same thing as actually being smarter. |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 1:37:16 PM EST
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By vtmarine: Non-proliferation died with Muammar Gaddafi. In 2003 the guy literally loaded his program up on pallets and we sent C-17s to pick it up. Less than a decade later "We came, we saw, he died." Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By vtmarine: Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu: This point I've been repeating since the beginning, and most people don't think about this issue at all. People talking about NATO expansion, or border dispute, or merely an irrelevant Slavic internecine conflict just have no idea about the full geopolitical implications, and it starts with nuclear nonproliferation. Every government knows, even if nobody among the people talk about it, that Russia guaranteed Ukraine's sovereignty & territorial integrity when Ukraine agreed to give up their nukes. Ukraine surrendered the nukes, Russia invaded. Non-proliferation died with Muammar Gaddafi. In 2003 the guy literally loaded his program up on pallets and we sent C-17s to pick it up. Less than a decade later "We came, we saw, he died." I did not know that. Yeah that makes giving up your nukes a hard sell. Politicians just can’t help themselves. No matter what was agreed to before they will betray every trust. |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 1:39:17 PM EST
[#13]
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Posted: 2/13/2024 1:47:46 PM EST
[#14]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By fisherman: Zeihan on the Carlson interviews of Putin Spot on IMO. Also mentions better coordination by Russian forces is leading to successes in some cases. I like Zeihan's analyses most of the time, but the cover he runs for Biden/his admin is douche-bagginess of the worst kind.  "US foreign policy can only focus on 1 thing at a time, 3 people are mostly in charge of US foreign policy, and the 2024 Election and Gaza are occupying too much of his mind or time...." YFR. The problem is that Biden hasn't got any mind left, and the entire rest of the permanent bureaucracy has to work around when he is coherent enough to sign something or not taking a nap. 
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Posted: 2/13/2024 1:57:47 PM EST
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Is NPD the same as AfD? AfD is documented in German media as a captured party by Russia (or just funded, if you will). I wonder how far that goes in the US? Per the earlier post, Sen. Mike Lee is pro-Putin. How can that be? How can anybody in the US actually be pro-Russia or pro-Putin? I'd start a thread in GD, since we have those people right here at arfcom, but I'm not interested in the drama. Why would an American support Russia? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Originally Posted By Prime: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GGJThCsXMAA2wbW?format=jpg&name=medium Is NPD the same as AfD? AfD is documented in German media as a captured party by Russia (or just funded, if you will). I wonder how far that goes in the US? Per the earlier post, Sen. Mike Lee is pro-Putin. How can that be? How can anybody in the US actually be pro-Russia or pro-Putin? I'd start a thread in GD, since we have those people right here at arfcom, but I'm not interested in the drama. Why would an American support Russia? Ukrainehelpbidenhurttrump. That is the full answer to your question. |
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WI, USA
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Posted: 2/13/2024 1:59:55 PM EST
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By vtmarine: Non-proliferation died with Muammar Gaddafi. In 2003 the guy literally loaded his program up on pallets and we sent C-17s to pick it up. Less than a decade later "We came, we saw, he died."  Okay, it was on life support after that, and now it's really dead. Both the US and Russia have now taken actions that completely violate all the norms underpinning nonproliferation. Maybe we could have earned it back by being on the right side with Ukraine when we were a signatory to the Budapest memo, but we blew it. I've always thought Obama should have been impeached for the Libya fiasco. There was ZERO cause for the US to attack Libya but for old grudges, but Hillary had to get her war on. Cunt. |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 2:07:52 PM EST
[Last Edit: absael]
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russian-military-objectives-and-capacity-ukraine-through-2024 Key takeaway: Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Russian Military Objectives and Capacity in Ukraine Through 2024 https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russian-military-objectives-and-capacity-ukraine-through-2024 Key takeaway: Conclusions The Russian theory of victory is plausible if Ukraine's international partners fail to properly resource the AFU. However, if Ukraine's partners continue to provide sufficient ammunition and training support to the AFU to enable the blunting of Russian attacks in 2024, then Russia is unlikely to achieve significant gains in 2025. If Russia lacks the prospect of gains in 2025, given its inability to improve force quality for offensive operations, then it follows that it will struggle to force Kyiv to capitulate by 2026. Beyond 2026, attrition of systems will begin to materially degrade Russian combat power, while Russian industry could be disrupted sufficiently by that point, making Russia's prospects decline over time. The latter would require Ukraine's partners to demonstrate a semblance of competence in their measures aimed at countering Russian defence mobilisation, which remains eminently possible in spite of their performance to date. Adopting an approach that aims to ensure Ukraine's resistance through 2025 not only undermines the Kremlin's theory of victory but also provides sufficient time to establish a rational mobilisation and training process for the AFU such that it can begin to qualitatively outmatch Russian forces, even if the latter continue to increase in overall size. This is critical to building opportunities to continue to threaten Russia's position and thereby force Russia not just to seek negotiations, but to actually negotiate an end to the war on terms favourable to Ukraine. Now is not the time to comply with the Kremlin's understanding of the war's trajectory. One thing that I think should be weighed, but wasn't mentioned here, is the effect of Ukraine's continued attacks on Russian infrastructure, particularly refineries and power stations. What happens if they are no longer able to refine enough fuel for both their military and civilian needs? The war effort would collapse if they can't fuel the armor and supply vehicles, and the economy would collapse if people can't get to work. I actually think that this is a feasible goal for Ukraine, especially as longer range, more sophisticated drones come on line. |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 2:10:23 PM EST
[#18]
Zeihan's take on Tucker's interview and some general updates.
 Putin's Puppet Show feat. Tucker "The Propagandist" Carlson || Peter Zeihan |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 2:16:06 PM EST
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Yeah that was one of the many WTF? moments in that clip. It did appear like the Russian was a non-combatant. Some propagandist visiting the front or something. Wonder if he was one of the EPW's or he ended up getting shot. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Originally Posted By Flogger23m: That is some crazy footage. Skip to 12:40 and you'll see a Russian run up to the American. Not sure if he was surrendering? American keeps shouting what the fuck over and over again, I think the Russian realized that wasn't his language and ran back the way he came.  Yeah that was one of the many WTF? moments in that clip. It did appear like the Russian was a non-combatant. Some propagandist visiting the front or something. Wonder if he was one of the EPW's or he ended up getting shot. He wasn’t surrendering and didn’t surrender. The narration makes the situation a bit clearer. Black shirt guy and the other one which was shot immediately were trying to displace away from Charlie-team toward the center of their position, not knowing that the center was already fully captured, and their own position was actually all that was left. Their intention wasn’t to surrender, and given the split-second opportunity, he chose not to surrender but return to his position. Armed or not, he was a fair target. After returning to the area of his original position, and perhaps saying something to the remaining Russian holdouts, he again tries to get around the blocking force by going around to the outside and is shot dead at that point. You can see him laying on his back at the top of the frame in an out-of-order scene of the video. Whether he really had a plan or was just panicked/overstressed is impossible to say. I found that little segment pretty interesting for how human behavior can go wonky under maximum stress. |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 2:18:25 PM EST
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: I did not know that. Yeah that makes giving up your nukes a hard sell. Politicians just can’t help themselves. No matter what was agreed to before they will betray every trust. It's also worth noting that the reason for intervention in Libya was that the Libyan Army was getting ready to steamroll and essentially level Benghazi, potentially resulting in hundreds of thousands of civilian deaths. It was also hardly a unilateral effort by the US and Europe. Intervention was supported by other states in the region and the Arab League. Finally, it should also be pointed out that Libya under Qaddafi was not the paradise some try to make it out to be. People constantly talk about how there's now slave trade in Libya, but that's a remnant of Qaddafi's regime, not a result of the chaos (slave markets existed under his regime). I think there's an argument to be made against US policy regarding Libya, but a lot of the narratives people promote are blatantly false. It's similar to how people claim Iraq was stable prior to 2003 and only being held together by Saddam. |
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USA
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Posted: 2/13/2024 2:35:00 PM EST
[Last Edit: fisherman]
[#21]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GTLandser: I like Zeihan's analyses most of the time, but the cover he runs for Biden/his admin is douche-bagginess of the worst kind. "US foreign policy can only focus on 1 thing at a time, 3 people are mostly in charge of US foreign policy, and the 2024 Election and Gaza are occupying too much of his mind or time...." YFR. The problem is that Biden hasn't got any mind left, and the entire rest of the permanent bureaucracy has to work around when he is coherent enough to sign something or not taking a nap. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GTLandser: Originally Posted By fisherman: Zeihan on the Carlson interviews of Putin Spot on IMO. Also mentions better coordination by Russian forces is leading to successes in some cases. I like Zeihan's analyses most of the time, but the cover he runs for Biden/his admin is douche-bagginess of the worst kind. "US foreign policy can only focus on 1 thing at a time, 3 people are mostly in charge of US foreign policy, and the 2024 Election and Gaza are occupying too much of his mind or time...." YFR. The problem is that Biden hasn't got any mind left, and the entire rest of the permanent bureaucracy has to work around when he is coherent enough to sign something or not taking a nap. Zeihan is a green so the D/liberal/progressive POV is more aligned with that aspect of his thought processes. He indicated in one of his videos a month or so back the R party and specifically Trump will not win the next election because they/he won't take a moderate position and negotiate with the Ds. Very disappointing IMO since he nails it on so many other issues. He is 100% on target regarding Carlson and his interview the Putin. |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 2:41:26 PM EST
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Russians are so much more intelligent than Americans! They are monitoring GD, aren't they?
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Posted: 2/13/2024 3:07:01 PM EST
[#23]
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Posted: 2/13/2024 3:58:00 PM EST
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By absael: Good article; I've read a lot of this before, but this is a good synopsis in a relatively short article. One thing that I think should be weighed, but wasn't mentioned here, is the effect of Ukraine's continued attacks on Russian infrastructure, particularly refineries and power stations. What happens if they are no longer able to refine enough fuel for both their military and civilian needs? The war effort would collapse if they can't fuel the armor and supply vehicles, and the economy would collapse if people can't get to work. I actually think that this is a feasible goal for Ukraine, especially as longer range, more sophisticated drones come on line. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By absael: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Russian Military Objectives and Capacity in Ukraine Through 2024 https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russian-military-objectives-and-capacity-ukraine-through-2024 Key takeaway: Conclusions The Russian theory of victory is plausible if Ukraine's international partners fail to properly resource the AFU. However, if Ukraine's partners continue to provide sufficient ammunition and training support to the AFU to enable the blunting of Russian attacks in 2024, then Russia is unlikely to achieve significant gains in 2025. If Russia lacks the prospect of gains in 2025, given its inability to improve force quality for offensive operations, then it follows that it will struggle to force Kyiv to capitulate by 2026. Beyond 2026, attrition of systems will begin to materially degrade Russian combat power, while Russian industry could be disrupted sufficiently by that point, making Russia's prospects decline over time. The latter would require Ukraine's partners to demonstrate a semblance of competence in their measures aimed at countering Russian defence mobilisation, which remains eminently possible in spite of their performance to date. Adopting an approach that aims to ensure Ukraine's resistance through 2025 not only undermines the Kremlin's theory of victory but also provides sufficient time to establish a rational mobilisation and training process for the AFU such that it can begin to qualitatively outmatch Russian forces, even if the latter continue to increase in overall size. This is critical to building opportunities to continue to threaten Russia's position and thereby force Russia not just to seek negotiations, but to actually negotiate an end to the war on terms favourable to Ukraine. Now is not the time to comply with the Kremlin's understanding of the war's trajectory. One thing that I think should be weighed, but wasn't mentioned here, is the effect of Ukraine's continued attacks on Russian infrastructure, particularly refineries and power stations. What happens if they are no longer able to refine enough fuel for both their military and civilian needs? The war effort would collapse if they can't fuel the armor and supply vehicles, and the economy would collapse if people can't get to work. I actually think that this is a feasible goal for Ukraine, especially as longer range, more sophisticated drones come on line. Good points, and from the article keep an eye on the following.
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Posted: 2/13/2024 4:00:12 PM EST
[#25]
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Posted: 2/13/2024 4:02:38 PM EST
[#26]
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Posted: 2/13/2024 4:22:52 PM EST
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: Fantastic! Congratulations. I really liked the P320 the couple of times I shot it. But can’t beat years of familiarity on Glocks. Besides the SIG mags cost a nut each! Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: Originally Posted By Easterner: Passed pistol qualifications today. Shot 10 rounds at 25 meters for part one. Squeaked by with a 76/100. The second part was "El Presidente" at 7 meters. I had to re-do the second part twice as I was at about 13.5 seconds with a Sig 320. That was only the second time shooting a Sig. Someone loaned me a Glock 17 for the third attempt which was a 10.13. Passing was under 12 seconds. My Glock 17 is waiting for me in the armory once I get my ID stamped. Fantastic! Congratulations. I really liked the P320 the couple of times I shot it. But can’t beat years of familiarity on Glocks. Besides the SIG mags cost a nut each! Thanks! Well now I need to get a holster and some pistol mags. Good problem to have. I really didn't like the Sig, but it was ok. I had some familiarity issues with reloading quickly. Glad there are Glocks available.  And thanks again guys. Some recent donations are paying for a truck wheel hub, and getting our welder fixed soon. We spent about 4 hours at the range today plus travel time. It was back to work once we started checking messages. Time is flying here and we literally work 7 days a week. It's good to stay busy. Thanks for helping us keep the gears turning. 
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USA
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Posted: 2/13/2024 4:30:22 PM EST
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: I did not know that. Yeah that makes giving up your nukes a hard sell. Politicians just can’t help themselves. No matter what was agreed to before they will betray every trust. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: Originally Posted By vtmarine: Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu: This point I've been repeating since the beginning, and most people don't think about this issue at all. People talking about NATO expansion, or border dispute, or merely an irrelevant Slavic internecine conflict just have no idea about the full geopolitical implications, and it starts with nuclear nonproliferation. Every government knows, even if nobody among the people talk about it, that Russia guaranteed Ukraine's sovereignty & territorial integrity when Ukraine agreed to give up their nukes. Ukraine surrendered the nukes, Russia invaded. Non-proliferation died with Muammar Gaddafi. In 2003 the guy literally loaded his program up on pallets and we sent C-17s to pick it up. Less than a decade later "We came, we saw, he died." I did not know that. Yeah that makes giving up your nukes a hard sell. Politicians just can’t help themselves. No matter what was agreed to before they will betray every trust. Nobody wants to talk about it, probably why you didn’t know. Not a Putin apologist, but the footage of Gaddafi’s messy death is reported to have freaked him out big time…..he thinks we want to do that to him. The Norks refer to it frequently. The most epically stupid act of the Obama Junta and the GOP was and is almost completely silent on it. |
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USA
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Posted: 2/13/2024 4:31:18 PM EST
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jaehaerys: It's also worth noting that the reason for intervention in Libya was that the Libyan Army was getting ready to steamroll and essentially level Benghazi, potentially resulting in hundreds of thousands of civilian deaths. It was also hardly a unilateral effort by the US and Europe. Intervention was supported by other states in the region and the Arab League. Finally, it should also be pointed out that Libya under Qaddafi was not the paradise some try to make it out to be. People constantly talk about how there's now slave trade in Libya, but that's a remnant of Qaddafi's regime, not a result of the chaos (slave markets existed under his regime). I think there's an argument to be made against US policy regarding Libya, but a lot of the narratives people promote are blatantly false. It's similar to how people claim Iraq was stable prior to 2003 and only being held together by Saddam. None of what you have said has anything to do with nonproliferation. |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 4:37:11 PM EST
[Last Edit: RockNwood]
[#30]
Good thread from Norway report. Concerning that although Norway and the West in general are aware of Russian atrocities, continued aggression, and frequent “spying in plain sight” nobody wants to do anything in response.
For instance, while Russia continues to map in detail the comms cable crossings and Norwegian energy infrastructure, Norway still participates in negotiations that allow Russian trawlers to fish in Norwegian waters. Plus all the commercial trade that continues. Meanwhile Russia doesn’t even permit Western journalists to enter Russia, let alone “tourists” travelling wherever they want mapping out critical bases and infrastructure. Madness. Norway Focus 24 report Commentary thread unrolled The Introduction of the report Today, we face a more dangerous security situation than we did a year ago, and the development ahead is uncertain. The conflicts of interest between authoritarian states and the West are becoming more apparent. Russian and Chinese authorities share an ambition to undercut the influence of the West and to establish an international order in which liberal values such as democracy and freedom of speech do not set the course. Cooperation between authoritarian states is increasing. International rule of law is weakened, and the world is re-arming. Russia considers the war in Ukraine a proxy war with the West, and Moscow is not abandoning its goal of crushing the Ukrainian armed forces and securing control of the country. With increased production of arms, improved access to personnel and considerable support from other authoritarian states, Russia is gaining ground on Ukraine. Ukraine continues to show tremendous fighting spirit, but the country relies on Western support to defend itself and retake the initiative. The war between Israel and Hamas has considerable radicalisation potential and raises the terrorist threat in Europe. Both IS and al-Qaeda have called for attacks against Israeli targets, and IS has made several attempts to carry out attacks in Europe. Trigger incidents could raise the terrorist threat to Norway as well. How these and other security-related concerns develop depends not only on the threat environment that we describe, but also on how the West chooses to react. Many countries are to hold elections this year. Security policy tensions and economic uncertainty are deepening political divides in Western countries as well. The main mission of the Norwegian Intelligence Service is to warn against threats to Norway and Norwegian interests. Focus is the Norwegian Intelligence Service’s annual unclassified threat assessment and must be read in conjunction with other perspectives. Our priority is to describe adversarial actors and developments that we consider important to Norway’s security in the coming year. Focus 2024 is the Norwegian Intelligence Service’s 14th annual unclassified assessment, and we hope it will inspire public debate. Nils Andreas Stensønes Vice Admiral Director Norwegian Intelligence Service Editing concluded on 26 January 2024 |
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NC, USA
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Posted: 2/13/2024 4:44:37 PM EST
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Yeah that was one of the many WTF? moments in that clip. It did appear like the Russian was a non-combatant. Some propagandist visiting the front or something. Wonder if he was one of the EPW's or he ended up getting shot. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Originally Posted By Flogger23m: That is some crazy footage. Skip to 12:40 and you'll see a Russian run up to the American. Not sure if he was surrendering? American keeps shouting what the fuck over and over again, I think the Russian realized that wasn't his language and ran back the way he came. Yeah that was one of the many WTF? moments in that clip. It did appear like the Russian was a non-combatant. Some propagandist visiting the front or something. Wonder if he was one of the EPW's or he ended up getting shot. agree crazy clip. that guy came running up completely disoriented -- then ran back yelling Nope Nope Nope. Maybe he was shell-shocked. 
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Posted: 2/13/2024 4:45:51 PM EST
[Last Edit: Charging_Handle]
[#32]
Holy shit! The Russians have drafted Brian Wilson of The Beach Boys!
 (2nd from left) And now that I look at the photo, I think that fella there in the middle row (center) just might be Sheldon from The Big Bang Theory. 
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Posted: 2/13/2024 4:59:23 PM EST
[#33]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: This point I've been repeating since the beginning, and most people don't think about this issue at all. People talking about NATO expansion, or border dispute, or merely an irrelevant Slavic internecine conflict just have no idea about the full geopolitical implications, and it starts with nuclear nonproliferation. Every government knows, even if nobody among the people talk about it, that Russia guaranteed Ukraine's sovereignty & territorial integrity when Ukraine agreed to give up their nukes. Ukraine surrendered the nukes, Russia invaded. This only ends one way, if Russia is allowed to win (or even partially win). Every small, vulnerable country that feels at risk that has the ability to do so will seek to develop their own nukes to stave off aggressors. Nuclear nonproliferation is dead. Putin has said that this is actually a good thing, on the belief that it will deter American imperialism. It's a bad thing. It will dramatically increase the likelihood of terrorist groups stealing a nuke or taking over a facility with nuclear weapons or production. While it may deter some aggression, the probability of conflicts turning nuclear or of terrorist groups getting and using a nuke increases to near one eventually. And the worst thing is that the political leaders are completely ignoring this aspect. Even though the Budapest Memo was completely and totally toothless, nuclear nonproliferation cannot survive a successful Russian invasion of Ukraine. Any leader in the world who believes in nonproliferation ought to be pointing at the Budapest Memo and giving Ukraine full support - in the UN, in sanctions on Russia, in aid to Ukraine. But the leaders of nations are silent, as if they've already given up. The leaders of free countries in Europe, North America, East Asia, South Pacific should all be pushing nonproliferation through diplomatic channels to achieve unanimous international support for Ukraine, but it's not happening. These leaders have allowed Putin to frame the conflict as just another US-Russia faceoff, even though it goes far deeper. It's a complete breakdown of the old geopolitical order. I'm just going to shut up about it, because this was all out there literally two years ago. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: This will spread everywhere if we decide to not support a Ukrainian win.
Poland may obtain nuclear weapons in a few years This was stated by Polish General Jarosław Kraszewski in an interview with RMF FM. He called such a scenario quite realistic - within the framework of NATO's Nuclear sharing program. "I consider having such an arsenal as a task for several years. I hope it will happen," he concluded. To the comment that there is a cost to owning and using nuclear weapons, General Kraszewski responded that "peace and security have no price." This point I've been repeating since the beginning, and most people don't think about this issue at all. People talking about NATO expansion, or border dispute, or merely an irrelevant Slavic internecine conflict just have no idea about the full geopolitical implications, and it starts with nuclear nonproliferation. Every government knows, even if nobody among the people talk about it, that Russia guaranteed Ukraine's sovereignty & territorial integrity when Ukraine agreed to give up their nukes. Ukraine surrendered the nukes, Russia invaded. This only ends one way, if Russia is allowed to win (or even partially win). Every small, vulnerable country that feels at risk that has the ability to do so will seek to develop their own nukes to stave off aggressors. Nuclear nonproliferation is dead. Putin has said that this is actually a good thing, on the belief that it will deter American imperialism. It's a bad thing. It will dramatically increase the likelihood of terrorist groups stealing a nuke or taking over a facility with nuclear weapons or production. While it may deter some aggression, the probability of conflicts turning nuclear or of terrorist groups getting and using a nuke increases to near one eventually. And the worst thing is that the political leaders are completely ignoring this aspect. Even though the Budapest Memo was completely and totally toothless, nuclear nonproliferation cannot survive a successful Russian invasion of Ukraine. Any leader in the world who believes in nonproliferation ought to be pointing at the Budapest Memo and giving Ukraine full support - in the UN, in sanctions on Russia, in aid to Ukraine. But the leaders of nations are silent, as if they've already given up. The leaders of free countries in Europe, North America, East Asia, South Pacific should all be pushing nonproliferation through diplomatic channels to achieve unanimous international support for Ukraine, but it's not happening. These leaders have allowed Putin to frame the conflict as just another US-Russia faceoff, even though it goes far deeper. It's a complete breakdown of the old geopolitical order. I'm just going to shut up about it, because this was all out there literally two years ago. Maybe they'll realize their theories of International relations and favoring "Crisis Management" over national strategy will evaporate when Romania, the Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan, Poland, Jordan, Finland and Indonesia all go nuclear within a short time!
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Posted: 2/13/2024 5:01:33 PM EST
[#34]
A message published on the agency’s website notes that this network, codenamed “Portal Kombat,” is a “structured and coordinated” grouping aimed at audiences in Europe and the United States. According to VIGINUM, the network consists of 193 websites that look very similar and present pro-Russian content aimed at Western audiences, especially in countries supporting Ukraine. Some of these sites use the word "pravda" in their domain names, with different extensions depending on the language, such as pravda.en.com for English or pravda.fr.com for French. Between June 23 and September 19, 2023, more than 150 thousand materials and posts were published on these sites, mostly reposts of content from Russian and pro-Russian media. According to an AFP source from French diplomatic circles, the main goal of the network, codenamed Portal Kombat, was to justify Russia's war in Ukraine. The source also noted that the content of the publications featured “strong ideological bias” and “obviously false or misleading stories.” |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 5:03:44 PM EST
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Well booo, hit it for real then. Really want to see Russian oil infrastructure hit a lot more. |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 5:07:37 PM EST
[Last Edit: RockNwood]
[#36]
Hopefully the new reinforcements can push this advance back and secure the road again. Not good at this point.
It's not the last one, yet Russian advances have gravely undermined Ukrainian logistics. The situation is critical due to the chronic and acute lack of everything, from munitions to equipment. Russians blanket Ukrainian units with scores of guided air bombs 24/7, and Ukraine has nothing left to counter that. The impediment of critical defense aid to Ukraine is taking its toll. We know that Ukraine's 110th Mechanized has been withdrawn to the rear following extremely costly battles that have continued since October 10. We know that Ukraine's elite 3rd Assault has entered the fight as reinforcements. The Zenith, the key strongpoint close to 9 years of war is mapped as almost completely surrounded now. We do not know as of now if the long-awaited decision to withdraw from Avdiivka has been made. We do not know if the command has decided to try and save the situation by introducing an elite 'firefighting team.' Avdiivka is now one of the worst hellscapes on planet Earth. |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 5:08:52 PM EST
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Easterner: Thanks! Well now I need to get a holster and some pistol mags. Good problem to have. I really didn't like the Sig, but it was ok. I had some familiarity issues with reloading quickly. Glad there are Glocks available. And thanks again guys. Some recent donations are paying for a truck wheel hub, and getting our welder fixed soon. We spent about 4 hours at the range today plus travel time. It was back to work once we started checking messages. Time is flying here and we literally work 7 days a week. It's good to stay busy. Thanks for helping us keep the gears turning. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Easterner: Originally Posted By RockNwood: Originally Posted By Easterner: Passed pistol qualifications today. Shot 10 rounds at 25 meters for part one. Squeaked by with a 76/100. The second part was "El Presidente" at 7 meters. I had to re-do the second part twice as I was at about 13.5 seconds with a Sig 320. That was only the second time shooting a Sig. Someone loaned me a Glock 17 for the third attempt which was a 10.13. Passing was under 12 seconds. My Glock 17 is waiting for me in the armory once I get my ID stamped. Fantastic! Congratulations. I really liked the P320 the couple of times I shot it. But can’t beat years of familiarity on Glocks. Besides the SIG mags cost a nut each! Thanks! Well now I need to get a holster and some pistol mags. Good problem to have. I really didn't like the Sig, but it was ok. I had some familiarity issues with reloading quickly. Glad there are Glocks available. And thanks again guys. Some recent donations are paying for a truck wheel hub, and getting our welder fixed soon. We spent about 4 hours at the range today plus travel time. It was back to work once we started checking messages. Time is flying here and we literally work 7 days a week. It's good to stay busy. Thanks for helping us keep the gears turning. Glad you're qualified. Keep up the good work! |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 5:10:04 PM EST
[#38]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Charging_Handle: Holy shit! The Russians have drafted Brian Wilson of The Beach Boys! https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2022/09/russia-soldiers-1.jpg?resize=878,585&quality=75&strip=all (2nd from left) Holy he'll Did the orcs just start drafting folks from a retirement home |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 5:16:23 PM EST
[#39]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By kbi: Holy he'll Did the orcs just start drafting folks from a retirement home This picture is from September 2022. |
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WY, USA
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Posted: 2/13/2024 5:24:01 PM EST
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 4xGM300m: This picture is from September 2022. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 4xGM300m: Originally Posted By kbi: Holy he'll Did the orcs just start drafting folks from a retirement home This picture is from September 2022. Wonder how many of those men are still alive. |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 5:34:24 PM EST
[Last Edit: RockNwood]
[#41]
A near forgotten capability voluntarily abandoned unilaterally. We disarm ourselves even while we watch Russia ignore or violate every negotiation for peace. Yet we keep pretending they are a civilized country to be engaged with diplomacy.
One of the great tragedies of the 21st Century is that NATO lost the capability to saturate an area with millions of DPICM bomblets. In 1989 NATO forces in Germany alone could launch 4,404,960 DPICM bomblets at the russians within 10 seconds of them attacking NATO. 1/4
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Posted: 2/13/2024 5:34:28 PM EST
[Last Edit: Charging_Handle]
[#42]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: Hopefully the new reinforcements can push this advance back and secure the road again. Not good at this point. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/494438/IMG_5720-3128124.jpg
It's not the last one, yet Russian advances have gravely undermined Ukrainian logistics. The situation is critical due to the chronic and acute lack of everything, from munitions to equipment. Russians blanket Ukrainian units with scores of guided air bombs 24/7, and Ukraine has nothing left to counter that. The impediment of critical defense aid to Ukraine is taking its toll. We know that Ukraine's 110th Mechanized has been withdrawn to the rear following extremely costly battles that have continued since October 10. We know that Ukraine's elite 3rd Assault has entered the fight as reinforcements. The Zenith, the key strongpoint close to 9 years of war is mapped as almost completely surrounded now. We do not know as of now if the long-awaited decision to withdraw from Avdiivka has been made. We do not know if the command has decided to try and save the situation by introducing an elite 'firefighting team.' Avdiivka is now one of the worst hellscapes on planet Earth. I'm not sure how many reinforcements the Ukrainians have sent/are sending, but it sounds pretty substantial , perhaps a brigade or two. That should be more than enough forces to push back the Russians forces that have seized that little finger of land along the highway. I honestly wouldn't mind seeing the Ukrainians bring forward several brigades and launch a full-on counterattack into the Russians at Avdiivka. Considering this is the one area where the Russians are on the offensive themselves, it might be the one area of the front that isn't so heavily mined. The Russians in that area have been so whittled down and battered that they have to be ripe for the picking. If one Ukrainian brigade which has held out against the Russians in this area for a year or more could deliver an 11-1 loss ratio on the Orcs, image what a Ukrainian counterattack using multiple fresh brigades would do to them. I hope Syrsky piles on the reserves and stomps Russia's ass at Avdiivka. Now if our fucking retards in the House will do their fucking job and get Ukraine the $60 billion in military aid they need, perhaps they can do just that! |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 5:37:39 PM EST
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#43]
Got another Russian drone operation team.
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Posted: 2/13/2024 5:47:00 PM EST
[#44]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By vtmarine: None of what you have said has anything to do with nonproliferation. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By vtmarine: Originally Posted By Jaehaerys: It's also worth noting that the reason for intervention in Libya was that the Libyan Army was getting ready to steamroll and essentially level Benghazi, potentially resulting in hundreds of thousands of civilian deaths. It was also hardly a unilateral effort by the US and Europe. Intervention was supported by other states in the region and the Arab League. Finally, it should also be pointed out that Libya under Qaddafi was not the paradise some try to make it out to be. People constantly talk about how there's now slave trade in Libya, but that's a remnant of Qaddafi's regime, not a result of the chaos (slave markets existed under his regime). I think there's an argument to be made against US policy regarding Libya, but a lot of the narratives people promote are blatantly false. It's similar to how people claim Iraq was stable prior to 2003 and only being held together by Saddam. None of what you have said has anything to do with nonproliferation. That's fair. Personally, I have a number of issues with how the interventions in Iraq and Libya are framed, if only because I fell for a lot of narratives when I didn't know any better that I now know to be false. I'll get off my soapbox. |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 5:49:57 PM EST
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Charging_Handle: Holy shit! The Russians have drafted Brian Wilson of The Beach Boys! https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2022/09/russia-soldiers-1.jpg?resize=878,585&quality=75&strip=all (2nd from left) And now that I look at the photo, I think that fella there in the middle row (center) just might be Sheldon from The Big Bang Theory. Someone needs to let them know how much those Bakelite magazines go for in the US. |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 5:53:18 PM EST
[#46]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Charging_Handle: I'm not sure how many reinforcements the Ukrainians have sent/are sending, but it sounds pretty substantial , perhaps a brigade or two. That should be more than enough forces to push back the Russians forces that have seized that little finger of land along the highway. I honestly wouldn't mind seeing the Ukrainians bring forward several brigades and launch a full-on counterattack into the Russians at Avdiivka. Considering this is the one area where the Russians are on the offensive themselves, it might be the one area of the front that isn't so heavily mined. The Russians in that area have been so whittled down and battered that they have to be ripe for the picking. If one Ukrainian brigade which has held out against the Russians in this area for a year or more could deliver an 11-1 loss ratio on the Orcs, image what a Ukrainian counterattack using multiple fresh brigades would do to them. I hope Syrsky piles on the reserves and stomps Russia's ass at Avdiivka. Now if our fucking retards in the House will do their fucking job and get Ukraine the $60 billion in military aid they need, perhaps they can do just that! Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Charging_Handle: Originally Posted By RockNwood: Hopefully the new reinforcements can push this advance back and secure the road again. Not good at this point. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/494438/IMG_5720-3128124.jpg
It's not the last one, yet Russian advances have gravely undermined Ukrainian logistics. The situation is critical due to the chronic and acute lack of everything, from munitions to equipment. Russians blanket Ukrainian units with scores of guided air bombs 24/7, and Ukraine has nothing left to counter that. The impediment of critical defense aid to Ukraine is taking its toll. We know that Ukraine's 110th Mechanized has been withdrawn to the rear following extremely costly battles that have continued since October 10. We know that Ukraine's elite 3rd Assault has entered the fight as reinforcements. The Zenith, the key strongpoint close to 9 years of war is mapped as almost completely surrounded now. We do not know as of now if the long-awaited decision to withdraw from Avdiivka has been made. We do not know if the command has decided to try and save the situation by introducing an elite 'firefighting team.' Avdiivka is now one of the worst hellscapes on planet Earth. I'm not sure how many reinforcements the Ukrainians have sent/are sending, but it sounds pretty substantial , perhaps a brigade or two. That should be more than enough forces to push back the Russians forces that have seized that little finger of land along the highway. I honestly wouldn't mind seeing the Ukrainians bring forward several brigades and launch a full-on counterattack into the Russians at Avdiivka. Considering this is the one area where the Russians are on the offensive themselves, it might be the one area of the front that isn't so heavily mined. The Russians in that area have been so whittled down and battered that they have to be ripe for the picking. If one Ukrainian brigade which has held out against the Russians in this area for a year or more could deliver an 11-1 loss ratio on the Orcs, image what a Ukrainian counterattack using multiple fresh brigades would do to them. I hope Syrsky piles on the reserves and stomps Russia's ass at Avdiivka. Now if our fucking retards in the House will do their fucking job and get Ukraine the $60 billion in military aid they need, perhaps they can do just that! Reinforcing Avdiivka at this point is akin to reinforcing Bakhmut when it was partially encircled, which almost everyone now agrees to have been a mistake. Realistically, Avdiivka has been partially encircled since ~spring 2023 or so, and it's been obvious for a while now that it's going to fall at some point. Moreover, beyond symbolic value because it's part of the old JFO/ATO line dating back to 2014, it doesn't have that much strategic value. Yeah, it's close to Donetsk City, but Donetsk City can easily be targeted with GMLRS, long range drones, etc. from elsewhere. It's not worth throwing multiple Brigades into a meat grinder at a time where Ukraine is hurting for manpower and when political solutions to that problem don't seem to be forthcoming. |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 5:56:18 PM EST
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Starting? I've been saying it for months, and I'm just a clueless outsider. People in government are supposed know more than me. (I've long given up on thinking they could be smarter than me. )It's simple. They give Ukraine enough weapons to beat the Russians to bloody pulp, or they open their doors to another 10 million refugees. Not an exaggeration. Lots of people already fled Ukraine, a few have gone back. But Russian rhetoric has made it clear that Ukraine is no place for Ukrainian people once Russia wins. Ukrainians have to win, flee, or die, and not just the fighting age men. That's not an exaggeration, either, plenty of Russians are on record talking about liquidating anyone who isn't sufficiently loyal to Russia. They have invited in millions from Africa and the ME but white Christian refugees from Ukraine is the final straw? |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 5:58:47 PM EST
[#48]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ED_P: Someone needs to let them know how much those Bakelite magazines go for in the US. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ED_P: Originally Posted By Charging_Handle: Holy shit! The Russians have drafted Brian Wilson of The Beach Boys! https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2022/09/russia-soldiers-1.jpg?resize=878,585&quality=75&strip=all (2nd from left) And now that I look at the photo, I think that fella there in the middle row (center) just might be Sheldon from The Big Bang Theory. Someone needs to let them know how much those Bakelite magazines go for in the US. I wonder how many of them fought in Afghanistan? |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 5:59:08 PM EST
[#49]
I have seen the victims in some drone drops, did not realize that these were hazmat suits.
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Posted: 2/13/2024 6:01:01 PM EST
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Banditman: I wonder how many of them fought in Afghanistan? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Banditman: Originally Posted By ED_P: Originally Posted By Charging_Handle: Holy shit! The Russians have drafted Brian Wilson of The Beach Boys! https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2022/09/russia-soldiers-1.jpg?resize=878,585&quality=75&strip=all (2nd from left) And now that I look at the photo, I think that fella there in the middle row (center) just might be Sheldon from The Big Bang Theory. Someone needs to let them know how much those Bakelite magazines go for in the US. I wonder how many of them fought in Afghanistan? Some of those guys pictured did, they were interviewed in the article in September 2022. |
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