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Posted: 2/20/2024 4:55:41 AM EDT
[#1]
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Posted: 2/20/2024 5:03:48 AM EDT
[#2]
Bulgaria delayed the delivery of 100 armored personnel carriers to Ukraine because it was waiting for NATO money for transportation
Markiyan Klymkovetskyi  Bulgaria has delayed the delivery of 100 promised armored personnel carriers to the Ukrainian army, as the country's Ministry of Defense asked NATO to pay for transportation costs. Euroactiv writes about this with reference to the deputies of the ruling party. The decision to send armored vehicles to Ukraine was made by the Bulgarian parliament more than three months ago, and the Ministries of Defense of Bulgaria and Ukraine subsequently signed an agreement for their supply. Bulgarian Defense Minister Todor Tagarev explained that the delay arose because the Bulgarian side was checking whether NATO allies could bear the costs of transporting armored personnel carriers to Ukraine. "This is not the easiest transport operation, because you need to involve quite a lot of trains," Tagarev said. According to him, logistics are complex, and Bulgaria's efforts are "appreciated by the Ukrainian side." Members of Bulgaria's ruling coalition criticize Tagarev for his slow actions and argue that the Defense Ministry administration is not working optimally. In early February, it became known that Bulgaria had begun the process of transporting armored personnel carriers to Ukraine. The Minister of Defense then assured that three ministries of the country had already decided to involve three ministries in the logistics operation. What are these armored personnel carriers? The transfer of armored vehicles was agreed in the summer of 2023, when Bulgarian Prime Minister Nikolai Denkov met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. At that time, the Bulgarian prime minister said that these vehicles had never been used in Bulgaria, since their military had not even undergone appropriate training. According to him, armored personnel carriers "just lie in warehouses" and are a "burden" for the country. On November 22, 2023, the Bulgarian parliament ratified the agreement on the free shipment of equipment, but the country's president, Rumen Radev, vetoed the decision. He argued that Bulgarian MPs were "not sufficiently familiar with the specific parameters of the donation", which "makes it impossible to objectively assess the need for the equipment provided". Radev also said that neither the wartime tasks assigned to the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Bulgaria, nor the needs of the border police and rescue departments were taken into account. However, the Bulgarian parliament later overcame the president's veto, finally deciding the fate of the armored personnel carriers. https://hromadske.ua/posts/bolgariya-zatrimala-postachannya-100-btr-ukrayini-bo-chekala-groshej-nato-na-transportuvannya |
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USA
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Posted: 2/20/2024 5:07:41 AM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime:
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Posted: 2/20/2024 5:12:59 AM EDT
[#4]
Ukraine means enlargement is again the EU’s priority – but not for the reasons it claims
The European Union is using an old tool for a new purpose as it looks to its defence Hans Kundnani Associate Fellow, Europe Programme Enlargement is back. For the last decade or so, the European Union had made it clear that, while accession negotiations with several countries would continue, it did not expect any of them to actually join the bloc any time soon. After becoming European Commission president in 2014, Jean-Claude Juncker said that no further enlargement would take place during his five-year term. Although his successor, Ursula von der Leyen, promised a ‘geopolitical’ Commission when she took over in 2019, she did not immediately signal a greater openness to enlargement. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 changed all that. Enlargement is now not just back on the EU’s agenda but has become its highest priority. At the Munich Security Conference last week, von der Leyen said, as she has before, that Ukraine and the Western Balkans ‘belong to the European family.’ Indeed European diplomats and think tankers are now frantically debating not just enlargement itself, but how to reform the EU to make it possible for it to ‘absorb’ several new member states. Whereas central and eastern European countries want the EU to accelerate the accession process, especially for Ukraine itself, others worry that enlargement without reform would make the EU dysfunctional – or even more so. Confusion about a ‘geopolitical Europe’ Enlargement is now often framed as a ‘geopolitical imperative’ or a ‘geopolitical necessity’. The suggestion is that by integrating Ukraine in response to the Russian invasion, the EU would demonstrate that it has now become ‘geopolitical’, as von der Leyen promised it would. What is odd about this, however, is that enlargement is the EU’s oldest foreign policy tool. In fact, enlargement was its substitute for a foreign policy at a time when, we are told, it was not geopolitical. In other words, the EU is using an old tool for a new purpose. These debates illustrate the deep confusion about the idea of a ‘geopolitical Europe’. While the term ‘geopolitics’ has become ubiquitous in foreign policy debates during the last decade, few who use it seem to have reflected on what it means or what the implications of using the term are. Sometimes it is used as a straightforward synonym for international politics. But more often it is meant to signify something stronger, whether that is an emphasis on military power or a realist approach to foreign policy. Instead of thinking about the current renewed drive for enlargement as ‘geopolitical’, a better way of thinking about it – and what makes it different from previous waves of enlargement – is that it is defensive. Defensive enlargement In the 2000s, when the last big wave of enlargement took place, the EU was in an expansive, optimistic mode. Many of its supporters imagined it could keep enlarging almost indefinitely and form the basis for global governance. But that optimistic period came to an abrupt end with the beginning of the euro crisis in 2010. Since then, the EU has increasingly come to see itself as being surrounded by threats and has gone into a more defensive mode – European leaders now think more about protection than transformation. The return to enlargement has taken place in the context of this new defensiveness. Thus although the EU has reverted to its oldest reflex, it has done so in a new context – enlargement is now a defensive strategy. This is reflected in the idea of enlargement as a ‘geopolitical necessity’ – in other words, that the EU has no choice but to enlarge. Ironically, given that is taking place in response to Russian aggression, this recalls a famous dictum attributed to Catherine the Great: ‘I have no way to defend my borders but to extend them.’ In the 2000s, enlargement was open-ended. Ten countries – eight of them from central and eastern Europe – joined the EU in 2004. But this was not meant to be the end of it. Rather, there was a sense that the EU would continue to enlarge beyond these countries. Some even imagined that Russia might one day join the EU or, even if it did not formally join, would be brought within its system of rules. This time, however, it is different. Enlargement is not so much a way of blurring or softening the EU’s borders, as it was in the 2000s, but of defining them more clearly or hardening them. This defensive enlargement of the EU is also taking place along civilizational lines. It is striking that although most discussions of enlargement focus above all on Ukraine, and also usually include Georgia and Moldova and even the countries of the western Balkans, Turkey – a candidate country since 1999 – is almost never mentioned. It is easy to argue that this is because of political developments in Turkey itself, especially since 2013. But France and Germany were always opposed to Turkish membership and various European leaders, both in and out of office, have hinted at or spoken explicitly about their reluctance for a large Muslim country to join the EU. The EU’s return to enlargement in response to the invasion of Ukraine thus reflects both how it has failed to develop a new set of foreign policy tools since the 2000s and also how the way it thinks about itself and its place in the world has changed since then. The EU claims it is increasingly ‘geopolitical’, and that its commitment to integrate Ukraine is an illustration of this. But the more meaningful and significant shift underway is that the EU is becoming clearer about who belongs to the European ‘community’– or ‘family’ as von der Leyen put it – and who doesn’t. https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/02/ukraine-means-enlargement-again-eus-priority-not-reasons-it-claims |
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Posted: 2/20/2024 5:18:23 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#5]
 
 
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Posted: 2/20/2024 5:47:52 AM EDT
[#6]
Interesting hotspots on FIRMS in Dnipropetrovsk.
https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#d:24hrs;@34.57,48.18,9.08z |
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Posted: 2/20/2024 6:34:38 AM EDT
[#7]
Roman, the question of the lack of working communication and warning systems in our air defense forces - after the events of recent times (and the period of the entire air defense system as a whole) - should become the main issue in the course of a seemingly logical check of competent structures.
But there will be no such checks (or their result will be replies that everything is there, the soldiers don’t want to go on vacation, and the A-50 and Su-35 are shot down by the enemy), because In the event of an objective result of such checks, “respected” high officials may fly away. By the way, according to A-50, to hide the lie, they even drew and fed a fake objective control with the supposed Patriot. Therefore, for the sake of the comfort of these individuals, payment is made in the form of our planes and the lives of pilots. By hushing up the reasons. Well, volunteers (such as Comrades Grubnik) are trying to plug the gaps in communications in the air defense. But, quite obviously, there are not enough volunteers for everyone. https://t.me/romanov_92/44341 .Well, volunteers (such as Comrades Grubnik) are trying to plug the gaps in communications in the air defense. But, quite obviously, there are not enough volunteers for everyone. Here I would like to note in a purely positive manner the air defense command of the 1st Army Corps. Who themselves came to us and in cooperation with whom we accomplished all this. People consciously solve problems and do not wait for weather from the sea. Systemically. In general, close attention should be paid to the situation as a whole to those in whose department and competence this problem is to be addressed and resolved. Because, as Comrade rightly notes. Romanov, no volunteers can systematically solve this problem. They are not able to do so, not even due to the availability of a resource (it can be found), but due to organizational and administrative aspects that only the army can solve internally. https://t.me/romanov_92/44353 |
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Posted: 2/20/2024 6:46:18 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#8]
   
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Posted: 2/20/2024 7:35:12 AM EDT
[#9]
#Summary for the morning of February 20, 2024
▪️On the Zaporozhye front, our troops wedged into the enemy’s defenses 1.5 km between Verbov and Rabotino. The Russian Armed Forces are attacking Rabotino from the south and west, the enemy is launching counterattacks, bringing up reserves and armored vehicles. Ours advance under the fire of artillery and drones of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, striking enemy concentrations with MLRS and cannon artillery. Heavy fighting is going on. ▪️In the Kherson direction, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have reduced the intensity of the transfer of personnel to Krynki; in the village, the enemy is in destroyed basements and is not taking active actions. The Russian Armed Forces are destroying enemy personnel on the islands and enemy shores with artillery fire. ▪️South of Maryinka there are battles on the outskirts of Novomikhailoviki and Pobeda. South of Novomikhailovka our troops are advancing towards the highway to Ugledar. To the west, the offensive continues towards Kurakhovo through Georgievka. ▪️After the fall of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ defense in Avdeevka, the Russian Armed Forces are consolidating the achieved lines and trying to deal with a large number of captured enemy soldiers. ▪️In the Bryansk region, 7 aircraft-type UAVs have been destroyed since yesterday morning, one of them with a jet engine. The Ukrainian Armed Forces fired at Novye Yurkovichi, Klimovsky district, and two civilians were injured. In the Belgorod region, Zarechye-Pervoye of the Graivoronsky urban district and Tishanka of the Volokonovsky district were shelled. Wet Orlovka, Grayvoronsky urban district, was attacked by a kamikaze drone. In the Kursk region, the villages of Uspenovka and Troitskoye in the Korenevsky district were shelled. In Donetsk (DPR), the Ukrainian Armed Forces dropped ammunition from a drone, wounding a civilian. A civilian was also wounded in Makeyevka as a result of shelling. The summary was compiled by: Two majors https://t.me/dva_majors/34914 ⚡️Front-line report for the morning 02/20/2024⚡️ In the Zaporozhye direction, Russian troops, supported by artillery and aviation, attacked Ukrainian positions in the village of Rabotino from the west and south. They also tried to develop their success northwest of Verbovoy. (Fig. 1) There has been relative calm on the Donetsk front since the capture of Avdeevka by Russian troops. The Russian Armed Forces are probing defensive lines in the Lastochkina area. Also, with the support of artillery, they carried out offensive operations near Stepnoye (not to be confused with the settlements of the same name in the Zaporozhye and Ugledar directions). Under fire from the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Novomikhailovka, Pobeda, Georgievka, Nevelskoye and Orlovka. RF Armed Forces - in Marinka, Donetsk and Makeevka. (Fig. 2) It will be hot in the Bakhmut direction in the near future. Some Russian units from the Avdeevka area were transferred here. The Russian Armed Forces continued assault operations on the heights north-west of Kleshcheevka, near Ivanovsky and in the Bogdanovka area. (Fig. 3) In the Luhansk direction, Russian troops attacked at Belogorovka, Yampolevka, Ternov, in the area of Tabaevka and Sinkovka. LBS has not changed significantly. https://t.me/wargonzo/18306 ❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦🎞 Chronicle of a special military operation: events of February 17 - 19, 2024 ▪️The Ukrainian Armed Forces again conducted a massive drone raid on the border and rear regions of Russia. Two drones were shot down on approach to the village of Wisla Dubrava, but destruction was avoided. ▪️Ukrainian forces also once again tried to attack the Kursk nuclear power plant. The downed drone fell on the territory of the station, the power units are operating normally. ▪️Another group of drones tried to hit objects in the Bryansk region. Russian air defenses shot down 19 drones and managed to avoid damage. ▪️In addition, the Ukrainian Armed Forces attempted to attack infrastructure facilities in Voronezh. Five air targets were shot down, debris from one of the fallen drones damaged a residential building, but there were no casualties. ▪️The last group of drones was able to fly to the Kaluga region. Air defense crews shot down seven enemy UAVs; no damage was caused. ▪️The operation to capture the Avdeevsky fortified area has ended. The Ukrainian Armed Forces began withdrawing units due to the impossibility of further defense. Disorganized enemy detachments retreated to the west, but suffered heavy losses in manpower from attacks by the Russian Aerospace Forces. ▪️In the south of the city, the Khimik microdistrict came under the control of Russian troops, from where the remnants of the Ukrainian formations retreated. Small pockets of resistance remain in the city; the Russian Armed Forces are clearing and demining the surrounding areas. ▪️The Russian command took advantage of the opportune moment to attack at the Orekhovsky site. South of Rabotino and west of Verbovoy, units of the Russian Armed Forces regained some of the positions lost during the fighting in the summer of 2023. https://t.me/rybar/57318 |
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MD, USA
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Posted: 2/20/2024 7:44:28 AM EDT
[#10]
To put Avdiivka into context...
...the amount of land Russia captured was about 5 miles for the cost of about 10K casualties and 300 AFV in the recent push; on top of whatever casualties over the last ten years (since 2014) in fighting there. It gets even funnier when you pull back on a map, and you see that Avdiivka is only about 5 miles from the suburbs of Donetsk and Donetsk airport (yes that Donetsk of the DPR). Russia was able to seize Donetsk within the first few months of the "Special Military Operation to Recapture Crimea" back in 2014, but then got completely bogged down for 200+ days fighting the AFU at Donetsk airport; not clearing it out until January 2015. Don't believe me? Look at Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/gHp5nETQR7SLwDA3A It's the equivalent of an enemy seizing Dulles Airport out near DC, and then spending ten years to seize Reston, VA -- don't worry, only another ten years to capture Tyson's Corner! Another then years to advance to Alexandria; and then maybe god willing in another ten years, we can assault cross the Potomac and seize SW Washington. 
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VA, USA
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Posted: 2/20/2024 8:27:36 AM EDT
[Last Edit: vahog]
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MKSheppard: To put Avdiivka into context... ..... It's the equivalent of an enemy seizing Dulles Airport out near DC, and then spending ten years to seize Reston, VA -- don't worry, only another ten years to capture Tyson's Corner! Another then years to advance to Alexandria; and then maybe god willing in another ten years, we can assault cross the Potomac and seize SW Washington. Maybe we could just withdraw to the Anacostia Line right now? |
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Posted: 2/20/2024 9:07:54 AM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: 2002. At the time, we were GWOT-focused and UAS systems were not considered a big threat in the 2000's. SHORAD ADA was considered obsolescent, and 8 of our ten Short-Range ADA Active Duty battalions were inactivated to free up personnel and assets for additional Cavalry squadrons. Not until around 2008 did SENTINEL radar become a priority again when Brigade Combat Teams in Iraq stated to demand them for Airspace Surveillance, since they are a quick way to deconflict airspace in a pinch and most of the better Brigade/Battalion commanders determined very quickly that knowing what was flying around over them was a good thing. Around 2011-ish, the Fires Center at Fort Sill started to launch red-star clusters on the threat of UAV's (later changed to UAS for Unmanned Aerial Systems). Needless to say, everyone thought this was a good thing; the problem is big, as UAS range from little tiny things that can fit in the palm of your hand and fly at around 50' max to stuff that is the size of a commuter airliner that flies at up to 60,000ish feet. Needless to say, we developed a lot of cool things; getting them funded was another issue. One problem we had with getting STINGER upgraded was that it was seen as an "old" system that was borderline obsolescent and the amounts we were allowed to SLEP (service-life extension program) was limited to the # required for US needs and certain allies for 15 years. At the time, we had a stockpile of above four figures of STINGER and the plan was to demil the excess (which is where, along with some FA munitions, I learned about demil costs). It didn't help that we had an administration at the time (Obama) that wanted to get rid of all cluster munitions and MANPAD systems because those are icky.  Thank you again for the detailed info. Daemon as well for details. I can imagine the "useless feeling" of being assigned to a Stinger unit in the middle of the GWOT. Now ADA are superstars and will probably demand their own beret color soon. Maybe light blue... |
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Posted: 2/20/2024 9:25:19 AM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GGtg66SWMAAJRJA?format=jpg&name=large
Do NOT open this mofo up unless you're actually interested Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GGtg66SWMAAJRJA?format=jpg&name=large
Do NOT open this mofo up unless you're actually interested https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GGZC74wWUAEGNtU?format=png&name=medium
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I don't understand why Poland doesn't just ban Russian grain, and then accept Ukrainian grain. Good heavens on that attachment! Well done. 
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Posted: 2/20/2024 9:48:16 AM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#14]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Per the previous post, a replacement for DPICM is nowhere near ready, but existing stock are apparently not acceptable. We certainly could send a million. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Originally Posted By Alex9661: There is a way for Biden to send DPICMs to Ukraine But there’s an important exception. There are potentially four million 155-millimeter dual-purpose improved cluster munitions in storage in the United States. M483A1 and M864 DPICM rounds respectively scatter 88 or 72 grenade-size submunitions, each of which can kill or maim a soldier. All of these shells are obvious candidates for the “excess” label. The U.S. Army years ago determined that these DPICMs—produced in large quantities between the 1970s and 1990s—are unreliable and unsafe, as any particular submunition has up to a 14-percent chance of being a dud. The Army around 2017 declared a requirement for a new cluster shell with a one-percent dud rate. “Rounds now in the U.S. stockpile do not meet the Office of the Secretary of Defense's goal,” wrote Peter Burke, then the service’s top ammunition manager. Per the previous post, a replacement for DPICM is nowhere near ready, but existing stock are apparently not acceptable. We certainly could send a million. Correct, plus even though we don't have a direct replacement for the DPICM, replacements were found until the new rounds are ready. Article is from 2017, and anyone wanting to look at the yearly budgets for these artillery rounds can see we have been stocking them up until a full DPICM equivalent is ready. https://www.army.mil/article/195413/the_king_of_battle_gets_stronger Given that the C-DAEM program may not complete EMD until FY23, the Army has approved a directed requirement to get a capability into the field starting in 2018. To provide an improved replacement capability as quickly as possible, PEO Ammunition's Project Manager for Combat Ammunition Systems, headquartered at Picatinny Arsenal, New Jersey, is executing a bridging strategy to accelerate the development of the U.S. Army's XM1128 extended-range HE projectile, to procure the BONUS SFM round from Sweden and to qualify the M999 grenade-carrying projectile from Israel. The XM1128 projectile is in its final stages of technology development and is more lethal than the current HE family at longer ranges (18 miles). The BONUS SFM is similar in concept to the U.S. SADARM, has been qualified by the U.S. Army and is in production. It has two submunitions with advanced sensors and is designed to defeat heavy target sets. After ejection from its artillery shell over the target area, each submunition independently searches for armored vehicles, and upon detection, fires an EFP through its roof to defeat the target. The M999 contains improved conventional munitions (tailored to defeat personnel and light targets), and is designed to meet the UXO threshold of less than 1 percent. Together, these three new munitions for the U.S. Army's inventory will provide near-term capabilities while the C-DAEM is in its early development stages. Also, because some models of rounds can be guided with the PGK fuse kits, you will need far less rounds on target because they become guided. One of the noted bottlenecks was for explosive filler, but there was no bottleneck for these or other fuses. Finally, the Precision Guidance Kit (PGK), which is a GPS guidance kit with fuzing functions, turned the U.S. supply of conventional HE projectiles into near-precision ammunition. The PGK is placed on the nose of an M795 or M549A1 HE projectile, is programmed with the target's GPS coordinates and guides itself to the coordinates with accuracy of less than 30 meters' miss distance. Excalibur and PGK are in full-rate production and have proven to be extremely successful in today's fight. https://jpeoaa.army.mil/Project-Offices/PM-CAS/Organizations/Precision-Attack-Cannon-Munitions/Products/XM11208/#:~:text=C%2DDAEM%20DPICM%20Replacement%20 Video in tweet.
SDB Area attack is my favorite.
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WI, USA
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Posted: 2/20/2024 10:01:12 AM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Ryan_Scott: That’s what they’ve been sending and it’s our war stock. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Ryan_Scott: Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Per the previous post, a replacement for DPICM is nowhere near ready, but existing stock are apparently not acceptable. We certainly could send a million. That’s what they’ve been sending and it’s our war stock. Hang on. An article linked above stated that the dud rate of the submunitions exceeded standards, therefore the shells are unacceptable. But they're also 'our war stock'? IOW, the dud rate doesn't actually matter, and the standard is just BS? I'm just a bit confused by the conflicting info. |
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Posted: 2/20/2024 10:04:06 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Ryan_Scott]
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Hang on. An article linked above stated that the dud rate of the submunitions exceeded standards, therefore the shells are unacceptable. But they're also 'our war stock'? IOW, the dud rate doesn't actually matter, and the standard is just BS? I'm just a bit confused by the conflicting info. Dud rate is too high for procurement but not for use. |
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WI, USA
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Posted: 2/20/2024 10:12:51 AM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: Three Million Shells. That’s How Much More Artillery Ammo Russia Thinks It Needs To Defeat Ukraine. David Axe Forbes Staff 15,000 shells per day. That’s how much artillery ammunition the Kremlin believes it needs to blast Ukrainian forces into surrender and win the war in Ukraine in 2025. That’s 5,000 more shells than Russian batteries currently are firing every day in Ukraine—and 9,000 more shells than Russian industry produces every day. To make up the shortfall, the Kremlin has two options, neither without its limits. One, it can try to restore some of the roughly three million old shells that still are sitting in long-term storage in Russia. Two, it can try to secure additional shipments from Iran and, more importantly, North Korea—on top of the two million or more shells Russia already has acquired from those countries. It’s all easier said than done, and Russian forces face “a significant shortfall” of their main 152-millimeter shells next year, according to a new report from the Royal United Services Institute in London. The Russian army’s thousands of howitzers fired with abandon in the early months of Russia’s wider war on Ukraine beginning in February 2022. According to the Estonian defense ministry, Russian batteries initially fired as many as 60,000 shells per day. That incredible sustained barrage quickly burned through millions of rounds in just a few months, more or less consuming every 122-millimeter and 152-millimeter round Russian forces had on hand before the war. Eighteen months later in late 2023, the Russians were shooting just 10,000 shells a day—and the Ukrainians, flush with a million South Korean shells the Americans had bought for them, roughly matched that firing rate. Before 2022, Russian industry was capable of producing, or generating from war reserves, just 400,000 shells per year, according to the Estonian defense ministry. As old shells run out, the Russians must compensate by building more new shells. And they are. Two years of investment, which has contributed to the doubling or tripling of the share of its national wealth Russian spends on its armed force, has expanded annual artillery production to 2.1 million 122-millimeter and 152-millimter shells. But that’s less than half of the 5.6 million shells that, according to RUSI, Russian officials believe they need to sustain a winning strategy in Ukraine through this year and into next. There may be another three million old shells in storage in Russia, but “much of this is in poor condition,” RUSI analysts Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds wrote. Do Iran and North Korea have another few million shells they’re willing to part with? Can Russia afford the multi-billion-dollar price? It’s unclear. If there’s any comfort for the Russians in this dire projection, it’s that the Ukrainians are struggling even more to supply their biggest guns. In particular, they must find some way to make up for the abrupt end of U.S. aid to Ukraine late last year. Ukrainian batteries went from firing 10,000 shells a day to firing just 2,000 or so. [Deleted] The U.S. Army had been counting on U.S. aid to Ukraine to pay for a huge expansion of its main ammo plant in Texas—an expansion that would have increased output to 1.2 million shells a year. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/02/15/three-million-shells-thats-how-much-more-artillery-ammo-russia-thinks-it-needs-to-defeat-ukraine Dear Maia Sandu and Klaus Iohannis: Please make arrangements to take control of Copasna and transfer all munitions and armaments there to Ukraine. Thanks, The Free World |
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Posted: 2/20/2024 10:16:13 AM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#18]
Neat, some tanks in a warehouse, and a Terminator too.
In the end, the fire set the entire warehouse ablaze and destroyed whatever was left. |
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Posted: 2/20/2024 10:21:39 AM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#19]
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USA
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Posted: 2/20/2024 10:23:38 AM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Neat, some tanks in a warehouse, and a Terminator too.
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Neat, some tanks in a warehouse, and a Terminator too.
In the end, the fire set the entire warehouse ablaze and destroyed whatever was left.  Impressive work! |
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Posted: 2/20/2024 10:24:43 AM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 4xGM300m: Impressive work! Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 4xGM300m: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Neat, some tanks in a warehouse, and a Terminator too.
In the end, the fire set the entire warehouse ablaze and destroyed whatever was left. Impressive work! I did laugh when the place was ablaze, and that one drone operator decided to fly along the wall until he found another tank to hit.
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WI, USA
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Posted: 2/20/2024 10:30:39 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Lieh-tzu]
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Ryan_Scott: Dud rate is too high for procurement but not for use. Thanks for clarification. ETA - more digging suggests that the political leadership also may ban use. XM1128 looks like it's still not in production, and I also don't see that M999 from Israel (more outsourcing!) was ever confirmed. DPICM is Schrodinger's artillery shell - it can't be used, but there's no replacement so we can't get rid of it. We don't want it, but if there was a war, we would want it then. |
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Posted: 2/20/2024 10:32:08 AM EDT
[#23]
These versions are not being sent to Ukraine, they are new replacements that have some improvements.
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Posted: 2/20/2024 10:39:07 AM EDT
[#24]
DPICM at around 10 seconds from the end after two fpv's strike IFV's.
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Posted: 2/20/2024 10:42:10 AM EDT
[#25]
Russians getting DPICM in a field.
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Posted: 2/20/2024 10:54:39 AM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: Oh dear, Hungarians about to get Orban’s quid pro quo good and hard. What kind of lunatic cuts a deal with China that includes having them embedded into your national security apparatus? Oh yeah, the dictator kind! https://kyivindependent.com/china-offers-backing-to-hungary-on-security-law-enforcement/ One thing my birth country has done well in its history is flip flopping who they align with. Sad part about all of it is they ultimately align with the people that are on the wrong side of history … so when Hungary does this crap … pay attention because there is a power grab on the world stage that is happening. |
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Posted: 2/20/2024 11:29:55 AM EDT
[#27]
Ran across this article: https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2024/2/9/socom-studying-drone-electronic-warfare-in-ukraine-gaza
"SOCOM is “absolutely gobbling up any lessons learned we can from” the wars in Gaza and Ukraine, Army Gen. Bryan Fenton, commander of Special Operations Command, told reporters during a Defense Writers Group event Feb. 9." The article also goes on to talk briefly about how they're trying to figure out how to do comms and ISR in tunnels. That's a tough nut to crack. |
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Posted: 2/20/2024 11:42:20 AM EDT
[Last Edit: guns762]
[#28]
[Deleted]
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Posted: 2/20/2024 11:48:39 AM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Thanks for clarification. ETA - more digging suggests that the political leadership also may ban use. XM1128 looks like it's still not in production, and I also don't see that M999 from Israel (more outsourcing!) was ever confirmed. DPICM is Schrodinger's artillery shell - it can't be used, but there's no replacement so we can't get rid of it. We don't want it, but if there was a war, we would want it then. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott: Dud rate is too high for procurement but not for use. Thanks for clarification. ETA - more digging suggests that the political leadership also may ban use. XM1128 looks like it's still not in production, and I also don't see that M999 from Israel (more outsourcing!) was ever confirmed. DPICM is Schrodinger's artillery shell - it can't be used, but there's no replacement so we can't get rid of it. We don't want it, but if there was a war, we would want it then. Yes. https://armamentresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ARES-Special-Report-No.-4-Munitions-Employing-Sensor-fuzed-Submunitions.pdf XM-1128 https://ndiastorage.blob.core.usgovcloudapi.net/ndia/2011/gunmissile/Tuesday11528_Nguyen.pdf Notice the number produced by 2007. SMArt submunitions have also been integrated into GMLRS rockets, with each rocket carrying four submunitions (GIWS, n.d.). More than 20,000 SMArt submunitions have been produced (Wich, 2007) Of the five munitions examined in this report, the SMArt 155, M898 SADARM, and 155 BONUS are not considered to be ‘cluster munitions’ under the definition incorporated in the CCM. According to, Colonel Thomas G. Torrence and Lieutenant Colonel Noel T. Nicolle, two senior officers from the U.S. Army’s 3rd Division Artillery who employed the M898 SADARM projectiles in Iraq in 2003, “SADARM was so effective that maneuver commanders asked to use it to destroy stationary vehicles rather than using massed artillery”. They also noted the drawbacks of traditional ‘dumb’ dual-purpose improved conventional munitions (DPICM) submunitions, which, unlike sensor-fuzed submunitions, generally do not automatically self-destruct or disarm, saying “When the division entered the Baghdad area, HE consumption doubled because of the concern with dud-producing munitions” (Nicolle & Torrence, 2003). SMSgt Knight, the JTAC who employed 16 CBU-105 munitions in 2003, noted “a lot of times, CBUs21 cannot be used on the ground when you’re going to have follow-on friendly forces go through the area because of the dud rate… we felt very comfortable [with] the CBU-105, having a zero dud rate”22 (Textron, n.d.). This is how you get around the ickyness of cluster munitions, you purchase ones that actually are not considered to be so, while being smart weapons that require much fewer rounds to do the job. Or you add hundreds of thousands of tungsten pellets around a standard HE round, and put a PGK fuze on it to also fill a similar role. Or, if you have thousands of strike aircraft with millions of guided bombs, tens of thousands of long range cruise missiles, you can shuttle the bomb truck aircraft back and forth multiple times a day to the targets and pound the enemy that way, at further range than most 155mm artillery in the first place. It is good to have options. http://www.the-monitor.org/en-gb/reports/2020/united-states/cluster-munition-ban-policy.aspx All cluster munition stocks that exceed or do not satisfy operational planning requirements were removed by the service and combatant commands from the active inventory by June 2009. The now-reversed 2008 policy required that the Department of Defense relinquish more than 99.9% of its cluster munition stocks by the end of 2018, as only the CBU-105 Sensor Fuzed Weapon met the less than 1% UXO requirement. According to a March 2019 Department of Defense budget request, “Currently, there are approximately 93,766 tons of cluster munitions” in the demilitarization account known as ‘B5A.’” The document states that an additional 203,024 tons of cluster munitions remain in CONUS outside the B5A, while another 91,362 cluster munitions are “OCONUS” or not scheduled for destruction. The M999 submunition round is called the XM1208 https://www.highergov.com/contract-opportunity/the-155-millimeter-high-explosives-he-advanced-w15qkn-23-x-0vte-r-22823/ 55MM XM1208 Projectile: The Army Contracting Command - New Jersey (ACC-NJ), on behalf of the U.S. Army Office of the Project Manager (PM) Combat Ammunition Systems (CAS) is conducting a market survey to identify potential sources for a 155mm, anti-personnel/anti-materiel Projectile. The product will provide U.S. ground forces with a capability to effectively engage imprecisely located enemies within an area, emphasizing personnel and light materiel missions. This product will support the Dual-Purpose, Improved Conventional Munition (DPICM) replacement strategy. The 155 millimeter High Explosives (HE), Advanced Submunitions: XM1208 Projectile must be capable of defeating personnel and light materiel in a Global Positioning System (GPS) denied environment from US Army 155mm howitzers (M777A2 or M109A6/7). The 155mm HE, Advanced Submunitions: XM1208 Projectile must replace 155mm DPICM stockpiles with a DoD cluster munition policy compliant capability which will broaden the target set, enhance lethality, and extend the reach of the current cannon platforms beyond the current DPICM capability. These are next generation rounds, but it doesn't mean we aren't making the M795 at accelerated rates. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M795_projectile In mid-2005, United Defense demonstrated a cost-effective system to improve cannon artillery accuracy with the successful firing of inert M795 155 mm projectiles equipped with a two-directional Course Correcting Fuze (CCF). United Defense developed this new system together with Bofors Defence, Rockwell Collins and BT Fuze Products. Course correction uses GPS to provide high accuracy. It can be employed on all types of U.S. 155 mm and 105 mm projectiles in the U.S. Field Artillery inventory. United Defense successfully fired M795 rounds equipped with the CCF from an M109A6 Paladin, to ranges of 14.5 kilometers at Yuma Proving Ground. Preliminary analysis from the demonstration confirmed United Defense's laboratory analysis. The projectiles equipped with the CCF achieved a precision error of less than 50 meters, three times better than the control rounds. So you don't need as many, the more accurate they are. Or put the PGK fuze on the older rounds we have in the inventory, since those are guaranteed to be accurate to less than 30 meters. M795 has been produced and stockpiled since 1999. Replaces the older M107 stockpile. |
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TX, USA
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Posted: 2/20/2024 11:55:00 AM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GGu499CXgAAet_u?format=jpg&name=900x900
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GGu50qsWwAALS2g?format=jpg&name=900x900 https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GGu8yS7XsAErrQh?format=jpg&name=medium
You can't judge the performance of real Best Korea missiles operated by skilled loyal party members based on the results achieved by incompetent Russians firing export model missiles though. |
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NC, USA
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Posted: 2/20/2024 12:00:32 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MKSheppard: To put Avdiivka into context... ...the amount of land Russia captured was about 5 miles for the cost of about 10K casualties and 300 AFV in the recent push; on top of whatever casualties over the last ten years (since 2014) in fighting there. .... It's the equivalent of an enemy seizing Dulles Airport out near DC, and then spending ten years to seize Reston, VA -- don't worry, only another ten years to capture Tyson's Corner! Another then years to advance to Alexandria; and then maybe god willing in another ten years, we can assault cross the Potomac and seize SW Washington. was thinking the same thing. lots of high-fiving for the Russians.  for what amounts to taking an area the size of a county in the US.plus the losses -- as you mention -- for the 'gain' were absolutely massive |
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Posted: 2/20/2024 12:01:52 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By castlebravo84: You can't judge the performance of real Best Korea missiles operated by skilled loyal party members based on the results achieved by incompetent Russians firing export model missiles though. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By castlebravo84: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GGu499CXgAAet_u?format=jpg&name=900x900
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GGu50qsWwAALS2g?format=jpg&name=900x900 https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GGu8yS7XsAErrQh?format=jpg&name=medium
You can't judge the performance of real Best Korea missiles operated by skilled loyal party members based on the results achieved by incompetent Russians firing export model missiles though. That is a good point, but if the system consistently misses the target repeatedly, or ends up in an empty field, it helps to build a case of the missile circular error of probability. Because it is guided, does not necessarily mean it is as guided as our stuff is expected to be. More clues to the problem are that these systems also use commercial grade components on the foreign market, they can't make anything themselves, and using commercial components will make the systems vulnerable in various ways to countermeasures.
This analysis was conducted by @conflictarm "CAR concludes that the missile recovered in Kharkiv could not have been assembled before March 2023." So on one hand, the sanctions regime is broken, and North Korea is selling Russia it's newest missiles, not old stocks. On the other hand, even their newest missiles, built with western electronics, are extremely inaccurate. The Ukrainians reported that only 2/24 KN-23/KN-24 missiles hit their targets. 
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Posted: 2/20/2024 12:02:15 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: To be fair to Daemon, IF I was still working in the job I had a decade or so ago, I too would be firing the red star cluster! It is hard to comprehend how bad off we are in munitions war stocks, storage, procurement, production capabilities, the MIC in general, the current state of the services in training, manpower, and readiness, and so forth. However, my take is that we are in a "damned if you do/damned if you don't" scenario regarding Russia and our future conflict with China. Daemon rightfully believes that we do not have enough munitions and productive capabilities to fight a "long war" with China; and he is currently probably correct. Conversely, my take is that we do not have the same to fight a "two-front" or "three front" scenario when (not "if") China gets froggy, if his assessment is correct then so is mine, and I see this as a golden opportunity to turn a knight into a pawn in that conflict, or more optimistically take Russia off the chessboard long enough to get our feces somewhat coagulated and maybe deter China for a few years and potentially deter other regional players like Iran and Venezuela from jumping in with China down the road. This is a high-stakes game and even though I am totally convinced that my recommended course is the best one I certainly don't condemn others that formed a reasoned opinion different than mine based on similar information. Exactly. If/when WWIII kicks off, do we want to fight China? Or fight China AND Russia (fat after absorbing 40 million expendable Ukrainians and their gear)? And there is the real possibility thar a strong unified (and very kinetic) response to Russia convinces China to wait a few years and try to subvert Taiwan rather than frontal attack. The weak, half-assed and inept frog boil technique will likely guarantee more hostilities in the future. |
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Posted: 2/20/2024 12:03:17 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Orion_Shall_Rise]
[#34]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: I did laugh when the place was ablaze, and that one drone operator decided to fly along the wall until he found another tank to hit. Protection again drones will take many forms... Tarps or screen over the doors would have prevented that attack. Though I'm sure someone is developing drones that could go land on the roof and be reactivated later. |
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Posted: 2/20/2024 12:30:46 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: RUSSIANS EXECUTE THREE UKRAINIANS Russians execute three surrendering Ukrainians, location unknown I would like to see AFU start clearings russian dugouts with flame throwers and WP grenades. |
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USA
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Posted: 2/20/2024 12:36:21 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryAre they still using Malyuks? |
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USA
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Posted: 2/20/2024 12:46:30 PM EDT
[#37]
 (Orc) Tor-M2 air defense near Kupyansk, late 2023. |
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USA
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Posted: 2/20/2024 12:52:28 PM EDT
[#38]
More pics of the 4.0 version:
    2S22 Bohdana 4.0 self-propelled howitzers of Ukrainian 47th Artillery Brigade. |
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USA
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Posted: 2/20/2024 12:54:43 PM EDT
[#39]
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Posted: 2/20/2024 1:06:23 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By castlebravo84: You can't judge the performance of real Best Korea missiles operated by skilled loyal party members based on the results achieved by incompetent Russians firing export model missiles though. Ah, best-korea monkey export models! |
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Posted: 2/20/2024 1:10:02 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 4xGM300m: Neat!
Video. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 4xGM300m: Neat!
Video. You can set up a simulator for yourself at home using the Steel Beasts Pro simulator. https://www.esimgames.com/the-use-of-virtual-simulations-in-afv-gunnery-and-crew-procedure-training/ Over the past ten years eSim Games has expanded its original armor simulation game into a full-featured training solution which is currently employed by nine armies on four continents. Steel Beasts Professional is a PC based virtual simulation, suited for the training and education of crews of armored fighting vehicles in a wide spectrum of everyday training situations. It covers basic and advanced gunnery training for currently fourteen different AFV fire control systems, suitable for gunnery and crew procedure training. All this is being presented in a tactical context of up to battalion level task force strength. This is provided by a powerful yet easy to manage constructive simulation. It has semi-automated forces for realistic medium and high intensity combat scenarios involving armored and mechanized forces. Gunnery training is supported by using 3rd party control handle replicas, or by integration of the software into new or existing crew trainer cabins. In cooperation with the Danish Army a series of new crew trainer cabins have been developed for the Leopard 1A5 and 2A5. New cabins are under construction for the CV90/35. Existing containerized simulators have been successfully retrofitted with Steel Beasts Professional. In close cooperation with its customers eSim Games has developed a solution where a microcontroller is programmed to transmit the system state of the simulator cabin to Steel Beasts Pro and to receive status updates from the simulated fire control system to activate control lights or to cue other system events in the hardware. This basis is currently being used for similar projects that will be delivered in the future. I highly recommend it, I have had a licence for over 14 years now.  Steel Beasts Pro at Karelia Brigade |
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Posted: 2/20/2024 1:11:51 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
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Posted: 2/20/2024 1:15:40 PM EDT
[#43]
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USA
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Posted: 2/20/2024 1:26:17 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: You can set up a simulator for yourself at home using the Steel Beasts Pro simulator. https://www.esimgames.com/the-use-of-virtual-simulations-in-afv-gunnery-and-crew-procedure-training/ I highly recommend it, I have had a licence for over 14 years now.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_O6_qrgA-eQOfftopic rant: you can get a tank simulator but not the Horus range simulator. |
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Posted: 2/20/2024 1:26:27 PM EDT
[#45]
Even Russian sources in the area complain that there are wide open fields, as can be seen from the map.
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Posted: 2/20/2024 1:28:34 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By voyager3: Offtopic rant: you can get a tank simulator but not the Horus range simulator. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By voyager3: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: You can set up a simulator for yourself at home using the Steel Beasts Pro simulator. https://www.esimgames.com/the-use-of-virtual-simulations-in-afv-gunnery-and-crew-procedure-training/ I highly recommend it, I have had a licence for over 14 years now. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_O6_qrgA-eQOfftopic rant: you can get a tank simulator but not the Horus range simulator. It is strange, I literally have a tank range on my home computer, with accurate ballistics for many different kinds of rounds, down to small arms. |
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Posted: 2/20/2024 1:30:54 PM EDT
[#47]
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Posted: 2/20/2024 1:31:47 PM EDT
[#48]
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Posted: 2/20/2024 1:46:45 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By SgtRock2: I would like to see AFU start clearings russian dugouts with flame throwers and WP grenades. Just so you know, the Ukrainians do the same thing when a trench is hot and they are actively clearing a line. You don't have the manpower or time to take prisoners when half the trench is shooting at you. When you get to the end of the line, you deal with the survivors. War is nasty like that. |
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Posted: 2/20/2024 1:56:07 PM EDT
[#50]
Randy presents a concise case for defeating Russia in Ukraine via a vis nuclear and conventional deterrent.
There have been dozens of times in history with Russia since WW2 that this worked: the Berlin airlift, the Cuban missile crisis, the attack on the Wagner group in Syria, etc. If the West and our Asian allies cannot respond decisively on a non-nuclear level, then the burden of escalatory risks shifts against us. Nuclear weapons just cancel each other out: they do not translate generally into a non-nuclear deterrent. The real risk is that allowing Russia to win in Ukraine will empower them to do other non-nuclear provocations and take bigger military risks. At some unknown point, the US will have to directly respond with conventional forces. Depending on the situation, this can get out of hand on the escalation ladder if either side feels it is losing a critical encounter that requires stepping up the ladder. The chances of a general conventional conflict with Russia that might escalate will grow exponentially if the US fails to properly arm Ukraine. There are few places where confrontation with Russia provides a more favorable balance of forces for the West than an "armed to win" Ukraine. Bugging out of this one will signal that Russia can exploit local conventional power situations without much fear of reprisals or direct confrontation. A miscalculation by Russia on how the US might respond to such situations will provide the greatest risk of World War 3 since the Cuban Missile Crisis. |
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