It's starting to sound more and more like the rumors of him being killed or badly wounded in that strike a few weeks ago are true.

And shut down the fucking pipeline. That Russian gas is still flowing through Ukraine is beyond perplexing

ru worms air strike pic.twitter.com/b3oX2clEvN

IgorGirkin  (@GirkinGirkin) March 13, 2024

A kilometer from the destroyed helicopters 🙄

? ????????? ??? ???????? ???????????? \uD83D\uDE44

EjShahid  (@EjShahid) March 13, 2024

The continuation of the tragic helicopter saga unfolds as the enemy, following an attack on the helicopters, traced where the ammunition from the helicopters was transported and struck the hangar.

We lack the means to shoot them down, though at the very least we should monitor… pic.twitter.com/1bPbB87NYw

— Bandera Fella *-^ (@banderafella) March 13, 2024

??It is reported that \uD83C\uDDEB\uD83C\uDDF7France has handed over to the \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6Ukrainian army another batch of RALEC F3 proximity fuses, which make it possible to initiate the detonation of a 155-mm projectile in the air, creating a directed cloud of fragments.

These fuses have been supplied to the… pic.twitter.com/G4jlMbJpMs

— \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6Ukrainian Front (@front_ukrainian) March 13, 2024

“Fired.”

You guys will see a increase usage of glide bombs from here on out.  Don’t be surprised when they start using several hundred a day later this spring.  Hopefully some solution to keep the bomber out of range is figured out soon.  F16’s arriving in July or later will be to late.

\uD83D\uDD25 An oil refinery in the Rostov region stopped its work after a drone attack, - Andriy Yusov.

??"Novoshakhtinsk oil plant is a military facility that supplies and provides for the occupying group in Ukraine. We do not comment on the information in more detail," he said.

— MAKS 23 \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6\uD83D\uDC40 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) March 13, 2024

There are reports of another drone strike underway (1030UTC) on the oil refinery near #Novoshakhtinsk in the Rostov Oblast of Russia @ 47.834621, 39.854003.#OSINT #Russia #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/KV8XlGlsnn

— OSINT (Uri) \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDF8 \uD83C\uDDE8\uD83C\uDDE6 \uD83C\uDDEC\uD83C\uDDE7 \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 \uD83C\uDDEE\uD83C\uDDF1 (@UKikaski) March 13, 2024

Ukrainian drone attacks over the past two days have paralyzed three Russian refineries, which account for 12% of refining capacity in Russia

The largest oil refineries have halted operations or reduced output. This is reported by Bloomberg. pic.twitter.com/776tpVZpE7

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) March 13, 2024

https://twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1768008282126406099

My grandpa was instrumental in getting their service life extended. He was a reservist and went to DC on his own time to lobby.

Mine thrower mounted on SUV.

Orc mobile.

According to American intelligence, Russia does not “want a direct military conflict” with NATO


In recent months, several European political and military leaders have warned of the risk of war with Russia. This is, for example, the case of Boris Pistorius, the German Minister of Defense. On several occasions, he affirmed that such an eventuality could occur within five to eight years and that, therefore, it was necessary to prepare for it.

Head of Belgian Defense, Admiral Michel Hofman expressed the same point of view. “Those who aspire to peace would do well to prepare for war, in order to dissuade Russia from opening a conflict in parallel with the conflict in Ukraine,” he said last December.

On March 12, in the National Assembly, during the debate [followed by a non-binding vote] on the Franco-Ukrainian security agreement and the situation in Ukraine, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal considered that "turning our back » in Kiev “would be turning our back on our values, betraying the trust of our allies and showing weakness. This would certainly not be moving towards peace, it would be opening the door to new conflicts, to new wounds, to new wars.”

However, it remains to be seen whether Russia would be ready to open another front, after that of Ukraine... No doubt the Kremlin is considering it for the Moldovan region of Transnistria. But for the Office of the Director of American National Intelligence [ODNI – Office of Director of National Intelligence], whose mission is to coordinate and supervise the sixteen American intelligence agencies, believes that Moscow “does not want” a military confrontation directly with the United States and NATO.

This is indeed what this organization [currently led by Avril Haines] states in its latest threat assessment, published on March 12.

Yesterday, ODNI released the Intelligence Community's 2024 Annual Threat Assessment. Read the assessment here: https://t.co/AlLUbVUVnr pic.twitter.com/GCBjr16tEX

Office of the DNI  (@ODNIgov) March 12, 2024

“Russia certainly does not want a direct military conflict with American and NATO forces. It will continue its asymmetric activities below what it considers to be the threshold of conflict on a global scale,” states this document. “President Vladimir Putin probably believes that Russia has blunted Ukrainian efforts to retake important territory [during last spring's counteroffensive, editor's note], that its approach to winning the war is paying off and that Western support in Kiev is limited, especially in light of the war between Israel and Hamas,” he continues.

However, the American intelligence community believes that the head of the Kremlin has "undermined the geopolitical, economic and military renaissance of Russia", which remains "a resilient adversary" which will seek to "promote its interests on a global scale and to undermine the positions of the United States in particular and those of the West in general.

Furthermore, strengthening Russia's ties with China, Iran and North Korea constitutes a “significant challenge” for the United States and its allies.

Additionally, the US intelligence brief warns of Russia's [or even China's] exploitation of ethnic and religious tensions in the Western Balkans, some of which have been invited to join the European Union [EU] or are considering to join NATO.

This region will "likely face an increased risk of localized inter-ethnic violence in 2024. Nationalist leaders are likely to exacerbate tensions for their political benefit and that of external actors aiming to strengthen their regional influence or thwart further great integration of the Balkans into the EU or Euro-Atlantic institutions,” warns the ODNI.

https://www.opex360.com/2024/03/13/selon-le-renseignement-americain-la-russie-ne-veut-pas-dun-conflit-militaire-direct-avec-lotan/

tank goryonov?

THIS!!!  😞

??"There was never any talk of bringing in ground troops. But different countries send soldiers to help Ukrainians with training. (!) I cannot promise that Estonia did not send soldiers, as everything can change.  Russia is a threat to us", - Estonian PM Kaja Kallas pic.twitter.com/otPCGKpiED

— MAKS 23 \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6\uD83D\uDC40 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) March 13, 2024

The largest refinery in southern Russia has suspended production after a Ukrainian drone attack


Ukrainian drones attacked another refinery in Russia on Wednesday. This time, drones hit the Petroleum Products Plant in Novoshakhtinsk in the Rostov Oblast, military intelligence in Kiev reported, adding that the facility was used for military purposes. The governor of the Rostov region announced that three downed drones landed on the refinery area.
The attack turned out to be effective, the company stopped production - reported Ukrainian military intelligence, quoted by the Ukraińska Pravda website. In a post on the X platform (formerly Twitter), Ukraińska Pravda published a photo of the plant before the attack.

The Russian side presented the situation differently, claiming that three downed drones landed on the plant's premises. Reuters and Interfax agencies quoted the governor of the Rostov region, Vasily Golubev, who wrote on the Telegram channel that "production was suspended after downed drones landed on the territory of the refinery."

"According to current information, drones fell on the premises of the oil products plant in Novoshakhtinsk. There were no deaths or injuries," the official said.

The plant is "out of operation"

The Rostov Oblast authorities reported that the refinery in Novoshakhtinsk "is not operational due to a drone strike."

The Russian daily Kommersant recalled that the refinery in Novoshakhtinsk was already attacked by drones in June 2022 and May last year. "It is the largest oil refinery in southern Russia. It produces gasoline, heating oil, ship oil, diesel oil and heating oil," the newspaper wrote. She stated that the plant's maximum annual processing capacity is 5.6 million tons.

Refinery "military facility"

The representative of military intelligence in Kiev, Andriy Yusov, said on Ukrainian television that the refinery in Novoshakhtinsk was a "military facility."

"This is a facility that supplied a group of occupation forces in Ukraine. We do not comment further on this information," Yusov said.
According to an intelligence official, the company's work has been suspended, which means that "there will be problems and disruptions to some of the enemy's plans, as well as additional opportunities and time for Ukrainian defenders."

Yusov did not officially confirm whether the Ukrainian services were behind the attack. "We do not confirm it, but we do not deny it either," he said, quoted by the Ukrainian UNIAN agency.

Earlier on Wednesday, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) stated that on the night from Tuesday to Wednesday it carried out drone attacks on three refineries in Russia : in Ryazan, as well as in Kstovo in the Nizhny Novgorod region and Kirshi in the Leningrad region. The Ministry of Defense in Moscow reported that 65 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles attacked various facilities in six regions of the country. Independent Russian media reported before the ministry's announcement that regions in Russia were attacked by at least 50 drones.

Attacks on Tuesday

Reports about drone strikes and fires also appeared from the early morning hours on Tuesday. At that time, the Russian central and regional authorities reported 25 downed machines in nine regions of Russia. Strikes at fuel bases and oil processing plants in the Nizhny Novgorod and Orlov Oblasts, as well as a fire near a thermal power plant in St. Petersburg, were confirmed.

Last week, the media reported drone attacks on industrial facilities important for the Russian arms industry - the Mikhailovsky Mining and Processing Plant in Zheleznogorsk in the Kursk Oblast, as well as the metallurgical plants of the Severstal concern in Cherepovets in the Vologda Oblast.

https://tvn24.pl/swiat/rosja-atak-dronow-na-najwieksza-rafinerie-na-poludniu-rosji-wstrzymala-produkcje-st7819178

Needs ability to depress gun further,  but cab is in the way.

Major respect. This call was actually quite incredible. This is real life in a crisis situation, not a fictional movie.

So, I guess Ukraine found components for all the drones they're using to slam Russian oil infrastructure.

Ukrainian drones appear to have cut Russian military shipping route through the Red Sea, forcing ships to sail to the Baltic

...Throughout the war in Ukraine, the transport ship Sparta-IV and the tanker Yaz have been central to Russian logistics shipments into the Black Sea. Sparta-IV is one of a series of Russian-owned ships that have previously brought artillery and S-300 air defence missiles from the Russian base at Tartus in Syria to Novorossiysk on the Black Sea

These vessels are sanctioned by the UK, Ukraine and the US for "delivering maritime goods on behalf of the Russian Ministry of Defence" but until recently this has had no effect. Turkey, which could deny passage of the Bosporus Strait under the terms of the Montreux Convention, has chosen not to. RUSI research shows that Sparta-IV made six runs to and from the Black Sea in 2023, including prolonged periods with her Automatic Identification System (AIS) system switched off   behaviour often associated with smuggling and illicit activities.

But then last month both the Sparta-IV and the Yaz unexpectedly turned around as they were approaching the southern entrance to the Bosporus. They returned to Tartus and are now heading to Russia via the Baltic. This is a huge delay, and then one must consider the onward overland journey necessary to get their cargoes to the theatre of war. Materiel landed at Novorossiysk had just a hundred miles to go to the Kerch bridges and the battlefields. What was a fairly simple piece of shipping becomes a continental odyssey.

Initially it was assessed that Turkey had finally denied permission to pass through but on closer analysis, it appears that in fact the USV threat in the Black Sea is now so high, the Russians don't believe it worth the risk, even with a military escort.

As ever, the problem is wider than just these two ships. There are believed to be at least 69 ships on the US sanction list and by the time you get to ships suspected of smuggling grain and oil out of the Black Sea, the list is longer still. But Sparta-IV is one of just a handful of ships smuggling weapons: forcing her not to enter the Black Sea is as significant as the sinking of the Russian flagship Moskva way back in April 2022, maybe more so. Whilst the Moskva strike was an embarrassing operational and tactical failure   and totemic   the effect now is strategic. Moskva showed Russia's shortcomings in fighting in the maritime domain. The inability to protect its logistics now could, over time, affect Russian ability to fight in all domains....

Wow! Getting direct access to top-level intergovernmental communications is pretty amazing.

Macron is a smart guy, and seems reasonably effective. I may dislike some of his politics, but my quick take is that he's somebody one could do business with.

Putin is scheming, and obfuscates every step. Won't make any commitment. In that call, Putin seems just as slimy as I thought he was from other stories/videos. And of course he states complete absurdities. Zalensky was an actor during Maidan, he wasn't a political player. And he was 100% democratically elected. There's no credible claim otherwise. Ukraine's elections are every bit as trustworthy and reliable as American elections, maybe more so.

Impressive for a country with a population of 1/4 of Kyiv city.

It's a start.

Thanks for the info on the war guys, just got our pup back after her surgery.  Just have to keep her less active for two weeks and they will let us know more about the tumor when the tests come back next week.  She is doing well once she realized she was back home.


Cone of shame...
Attached File

BREAKING:

Denmark announces it’s starting an overhaul of its armed forces due to the threat from Russia.

One of the reforms is that conscription will be introduced, including for women.

\uD83C\uDDE9\uD83C\uDDF0 pic.twitter.com/FEt7ySRpBj

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) March 13, 2024

Undated video of a Russian ZALA Lancet loitering munition hitting the front of a Ukrainian BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicle.

The strike caused no visible damage and the vehicle continued to drive forward, with all crew-members presumably unharmed. pic.twitter.com/nEZpPmJbDU

— Status-6 (Military & Conflict News) (@Archer83Able) March 13, 2024

I never thought I would live long enough to say something like this about a French President:  I would swap Biden for Macron, even up. I would not ask for anything extra.

My esteem of Macron has went up several points in the last couple of years.

Tough gig to be in the military along with those Danish girls.  

For not wanting a direct conflict with NATO, they sure have a funny way of showing it.

The geese may be safe.

Yeah something has changed these past few weeks. Russia is seemingly quick at target acquisition. What munitions were those that hit at the end? If they are glide bombs it would be some evidence that Russia has learned how to coordinate and deliver quick air strikes.

Also irritating that training on Mirage 2000s and F-18s wasn't done 2 years ago. France and Australia respectively have retired a large number of those planes and they if training was approved 2 years back they might have been on track to enter service around the time F-16s would have.
France retired their last Mirage 2000Cs in 2022.



Ukrainian pilots should have started training summer 2022 on these.

It's a pretty low bar; Biden can't say anything coherent at all without a written note or a teleprompter.

Here's another thing about that conversation: by the date this call took place, Putin was already 99% go on the invasion. You have Macron and others scrambling to play catch-up, but Putin is steadily following the plan made years before. The time to respond was in fall of 2021 when the 'exercises' should have been over if they were exercises. The buildup began almost exactly three years ago now. By the time this call was made, concrete actions should have already been rolling, like literal shiploads of surplus M113s, Bradleys, M1s, M198, M109s, M270s with ammo for all headed to Poland. By the time this call was made, two or three dozen Ukrainian air & ground crews should have already been receiving training on F16, Mirage, F18, whatever.

I agree with Capta; the time to have deterred this action was in 2014 at the latest, but really 2008. Hanging Georgia out to dry with no serious consequences was a huge failure, and a total green-light for Putin's action in Ukraine.

As Khordokovsky said, Putin only stops when someone makes him stop with matching or superior force. Nothing less will do.

Russia's rhetoric is for internal consumption. Even their silliest of sycophants are aware of the implications of an open war with NATO.