I don't believe so.   The issue with this launch was that your location was too close to sunset and the sky was not dark enough.

That is amazing.   You also see the first stage re-entry burn at 13 seconds remaining in the video.

Crew-4 return splashdown is scheduled for 4:55 PM EDT on 14 October 2022.

"SpaceX and NASA are targeting Wednesday, October 14 at 11:35 AM EDT, for Dragon to autonomously undock from the International Space Station. After performing a series of departure burns to move away from the space station, Dragon will conduct multiple orbit-lowering maneuvers, jettison the trunk, and re-enter Earth’s atmosphere for splashdown off the coast of Florida on October 13 at approximately 4:55 PM EDT. "

Undocking/splashdown livestream:



Additional livestreams:  Dragon’s hatch closing, undocking, and splashdown coverage will air live on NASA Television, the NASA app, and the agency’s website.

This should be a northwest to southeast pass across the USA.  When they announce the landing zone that will provide an estimate of who might hear the sonic boom and possibly re-entry.  It will be daytime so visibility of the re-entry plasma phase in unknown to me.  The following path of the ISS is shown to show the expected direction of the Crew Dragon.    The  Crew Dragon ground track may differ slightly from that of the ISS.



Here are the recovery locations:



Plasma re-entry observation:   Based upon the Axiom-1 re-entry, Los of signal (LOS) due to ionization from entry is about 14 minutes prior to splashdown.  Acquisition of signal (AOS) follows at splashdown minus 7.5 minutes.  My initial guesses on these times which is when you may be able to see the fiery re-entry is as follows.   Allow at least a minute uncertainty.

LOS:
AOS:

From the chart in post #12, 4:43:47 to 4:48:47 EDT are the relevant times.   Subtract one hour if you are in the Central time zone.


See the re-entry ground track in post #12 below.  The times are CDT.  Add one hour for EDT.

Sonic boom:  This may be limited to areas near the ground track closer to the ocean.  Allow 5-10 minutes after passage for the sound to reach your location.

If possible, note the time to plus/minus 15 seconds or so along with a nearby town/state.

Sightings:

1)  Chattanooga TN.   Steel72mansteel72man

Spotted over Chattanooga, TN at 3:45PM



I have seen video and photos reportedly of the capsule re-entry, possibly around Savannah Georgia and sonic booms but I can't find that information now.

.@NASA and @SpaceX mission controllers wave-off #Crew4 undocking in Dragon Freedom today due to weather concerns at the Florida splashdown site. Friday undocking times are currently being assessed. https://t.co/lCvrNKYM9r https://t.co/guF3cQ5O6O

— International Space Station (@Space_Station) October 13, 2022

Targeting Friday, October 14 for a Falcon 9 launch of the Eutelsat HOTBIRD 13F mission to orbit from Space Launch Complex 40 in Florida. The 116-minute window opens at 11:26 p.m. ET ? https://t.co/GK7E4WrIw7

SpaceX  (@SpaceX) October 13, 2022

Mission:  Falcon Heavy, USSF-44

1) Background info: Source

"A SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket will launch the USSF 44 mission for the U.S. Space Force. The mission is expected to deploy two spacecraft payloads directly into geosynchronous orbit, one of which is the military’s TETRA 1 microsatellite. The Falcon Heavy’s two side boosters will land at Landing Zone 1 and 2 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, and the core stage will be expended."

SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy test-fired on launch pad in Florida

2) Launch window:    9:40 AM EDT (1 November 2022)

3) Launch Site:   LC-39A, Kennedy Space Center, Florida

4) Launch direction:  East

5) Webcast viewing options:

a. SpaceX webcast (Starts about 15 minutes before liftoff)

b.  You Tube



6)  Observation comments:    

7) Launch preparations:

a.  Boats heading out.

b.   Satellite: Unlikely to see photos

c.  Ready for launch.  

d.  Navigation warning:  



8) First stage return/ocean recovery/disposal:  Side boosters return to land at Landing Zones 1 and 2.  The center core is disposed of in the ocean.

9) Launch to deployment events/timeline:      

Hours:Minutes:Seconds after lift-off.  Times approximate.  

00:02:32 1st stage main engine cutoff (MECO)
00:02:35 1st and 2nd stages separate
00:02:42 2nd stage engine starts (SES-1)
00:03:22 Fairing deployment
00:06:29 1st stage entry burn begins
00:06:57 1st stage entry burn completes
00:08:07 2nd stage engine cutoff (SECO)
00:08:22 1st stage landing burn begins
00:08:45 1st stage landing
00:29:12 2nd stage engine restarts (SES-2)
00:30:10 2nd stage engine cutoff (SECO-2)
00:36:11 Eutelsat HOTBIRD 13F deploys

10)  Orbit destination:  Geosynchronous orbit with Falcon 9 second stage performing maneuvers to reach geosynchronous orbit.

That flight felt odd. Somewhat reminiscent of the IXPE launch. Seemed like they were spending more time in lower parts of the atmosphere than usual.

UPDATE: The targeted launch date for @SpaceX’s FALCON HEAVY - USSF-44 Mission is MON, Oct 31 at 6:44am ET from LC-39A at Kennedy Space Center, FL \uD83D\uDE80\uD83D\uDE80\uD83D\uDE80 https://t.co/5cGYg2Xtnc

Reagan Beck  (@bluemoondance74) October 13, 2022

Weather permitting, Crew Dragon Freedom and SpaceX Crew-4 will undock from the ISS at 15:35 UTC today. Teams are evaluating landing sites in the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean for a splashdown around 20:50 UTC.

By Anthony Iemole (@SpaceXFan97): https://t.co/c1diNO1DiB

Thomas Burghardt  (@TGMetsFan98) October 14, 2022

Recovery ship Megan is on station at the Jacksonville splashdown location in the Atlantic Ocean.

Meanwhile, identical ship Shannon is at the Panama City splashdown site in the Gulf of Mexico https://t.co/oE9wa9FSB2

— Gav Cornwell \uD83D\uDEA2\uD83D\uDE80 (@SpaceOffshore) October 14, 2022

Undocked and set for landing at 4:55 pm EST!  

Anybody got the track yet for re-entry and landing?

Last time they did a NW to SE landing, I was able to see the re-entry plasma streak from here.

deorbit burn in progress

WB-57 is in the area
https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=acd958

any chance this will be visible on the Northeast Atlantic coast?

No

They really need to work on their speech to text program.

LOL

In Nashville.....didnt see it but did hear what sounded like a sonic boom.  Anyone in TN see it?

splashdown!

Good splash.

Bilge pump ???

I was seeing that too.

Didn’t see it but definitely heard the boom in N GA.

Looking forward to the day a winged spacecraft returns a crew and lands on a runway where the crew can pop the door open and walk out 15 minutes after landing.
Not being sarcastic or even reminiscent, I hope the Dream Chaser can prove the concept again and SpaceX get's onboard and builds their own.

Splashdown was about eight minutes later than predicted.   If the other critical times...like the plasma period were off eight minutes then it is not surprising that people may have missed seeing it.

No matter how the return - I don't think that anytime soon the long term 'astronauts' will hop out and walk away.
I think that the re-acclimation to gravity for the long-time space residents will require some help.

New T-0 of 12:26 a.m. ET for tonight's Falcon 9 launch of Eutelsat HOTBIRD 13F to allow additional time for data review

SpaceX  (@SpaceX) October 15, 2022

Now targeting 1:22 a.m. ET for launch of Eutelsat HOTBIRD 13F

SpaceX  (@SpaceX) October 15, 2022

I woke up in time to catch the payload deployment.

Missed it.

Watch me get thrown around in a Fighter Jet & pull 7 G's with @KiddPoteet & the @PolarisProgram Dawn Crew! We talk to @rookisaacman, @annawmenon & @Gillis_SarahE about Fighter Jet Training, go over the physics and lots of other fun stuff! WATCH NOW!!! https://t.co/9HymgzRWYk pic.twitter.com/fFQrMB4Jvl

Everyday Astronaut  (@Erdayastronaut) October 15, 2022

We watched the 10-9 launch from a cruise ship ( RC Mariner of the Seas).  Here's some pics of the launch, and a recovery ship prior to the launch.

Attached File


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Mission:  Starlink 4-36

1) Background info: Source

"A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will launch with another batch of Starlink internet satellites. The Falcon 9’s first stage booster will land on a drone ship in the Atlantic Ocean."  

2) Launch window:    10:50:40 AM EDT  (20 October 2022).

3) Launch Site:   SLC-40, Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida

4) Launch direction:  Northeast

5) Webcast viewing options:

a. SpaceX webcast (Starts about 5 minutes before liftoff)

b.  You Tube



6)  Observation comments:    None.

7) Launch preparations:

a.  Boats heading out.


Gav Cornwell@SpaceOffshore.      Departure! Bob and ASOG droneship are heading to sea for Starlink Group 4-36

b.  Ready for launch.  No photo found


c.  Navigation warning:


Raul@Raul74Cz.     LHA map for #Starlink Group 4-34 from CCSFS SLC-40 NET 14 Sep 02:10 UTC, altern. 15 to 19 Sep based on NOTMAR/NOTAMs. B1067.6 planned landing with roughly estimated fairing recovery approx. 666km downrange. Stage2 debris reentry in eastern Pacific. http://bit.do/LHA20
From a previous launch.  This one should be similar.

8) First stage return/ocean recovery/disposal:  Drone ship ASOG recovery

9) Launch to deployment events/timeline:      

Hours:Minutes:Seconds after lift-off.  Times approximate.  

00:02:27   1st stage main engine cutoff (MECO)
00:02:31   1st and 2nd stages separate
00:02:38   2nd stage engine starts
00:02:42   Fairing deployment
00:06:50   1st stage entry burn start
00:07:09   1st stage entry burn complete
00:08:29   1st stage landing burn start
00:08:42   2nd stage engine cutoff (SECO-1)
00:08:49   1st stage landing
00:15:23   Starlink satellites deploy

10)  Orbit destination:  Starlink Shell 4; 540 km circular low-Earth orbit (LEO); initial orbit: 337 x 232 km low-Earth orbit at 53.22 degrees

Awesome

t-4min

nailed it

Congrats to @SpaceX team on 48th launch this year! Falcon 9 now holds record for most launches of a single vehicle type in a year.

Elon Musk  (@elonmusk) October 20, 2022

SpaceX slashes base price of smallsat rideshare program, adds “Plates”

"SpaceX has rolled out an upgraded version of its Rideshare program that will allow even more small satellite operators to send their spacecraft to orbit for extremely low prices.

SpaceX threw its hat into the growing ring of smallsat launch aggregators in August 2019 with its Smallsat Program. Initially, the company offered a tiered pricing scale with multiple rates for the different sizes of ports a satellite operator could attach their spacecraft to. For customers purchasing their launch services more than 12 months in advance, SpaceX aimed to charge a minimum of $2.25 million for up to 150 kilograms (~330 lb) and a flat $15,000 for each additional kilogram. Customers placing their order 6-12 months before launch would pay a 33% premium ($20,000/kg).

Compared to the first attempt, the new pricing – $1 million for up to 200 kilograms (~440 lb) and $5000 for each extra kilogram – was extraordinarily competitive and effectively solidified SpaceX as the premier source of rideshare launch services overnight. Save for an inflation-spurred increase to $1.1 million and $5500/kg, that pricing has remained stable for almost three years, and SpaceX’s Smallsat Program has become a spectacular success.

SpaceX, however, was unable to sit idle and has introduced several significant improvements to its rideshare services. While it technically hasn’t reduced its prices, SpaceX will now allow satellites as small as 50 kilograms to book directly through the company at its virtually unbeatable rate of $5500 per kilogram. Before this change, customers with small satellites would either have to pay for all the extra capacity they weren’t using, boosting their relative cost per kilogram, or arrange their launch services with a third-party aggregator like Spaceflight or Exolaunch."

The article also discusses a change in the payload mounting system.

Falcon Heavy in the hangar at Launch Complex 39A pic.twitter.com/Ul1Ti8e8qH

SpaceX  (@SpaceX) October 23, 2022

When is the falcon heavy scheduled to launch?

the 2 side boosters should be RTLS... right?  I should go see that if they are.

Oct. 31Falcon Heavy
Launch time: 1344 GMT (9:44 a.m. EDT)
Launch site: LC-39A
The Falcon Heavy’s two side boosters will land at Landing Zone 1 and 2 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, and the core stage will be expended. Delayed from Oct. 28

I'm going to be in Orlando then.

do I have to drive to the Cape to see anything or will it be ok to stay in Orlando?

Daytime launch.   Two boosters returning to near the launch site.   I would try to be close enough to see the landing burn and hear the sonic booms.  I doubt that will happen in Orlando.  Local observers can provide better guidance.

Launch delays are possible.

Falcon Heavy rolling out

Here is some reporting on the upcoming Falcon Heavy launch

I will do more after tomorrow's Starlink launch from California.

Mission:  Starlink 4-31

1) Background info: Source

"A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will launch with another batch of Starlink internet satellites. The Falcon 9’s first stage booster will land on a drone ship in the Pacific Ocean."

2) Launch window:    6:14 PM PDT/9:14 PM EDT (27 October 2022).

3) Launch Site:   SLC-4E, Vandenberg Space Force Base, California

4) Launch direction:  South

5) Webcast viewing options:

a. SpaceX webcast (Starts about 5 minutes before liftoff)

b.  You Tube



6)  Observation comments:   The launch track will be closer to land so visibility from Los Angeles and south may be improved.  Sunset in Los Angeles is 6:06 PM PDT.  Civil twilight is at 6:32 PM.  A launch closer to civil twilight might be better for the jellyfish effect but I would look anyway.  People further east who have visibility of the launch..especially near and after second stage ignition...should have a better chance of a jellyfish sighting.

Sunset in Phoenix Arizona is 6:46 PM and civil twilight at 7:05 PM.   I am not sure about the time zone issue using sunrisesunset.com but it makes sense that it will be darker on the ground in/near that region so the chance of a jellyfish sighting should be better.  It should be right.  Arizona is on standard time and CA went forward one hour with DST.  

7) Launch preparations:

a.  Boats heading out.


Gav Cornwell@SpaceOffshore.      Tug Scorpius is about to get underway from the Port of Long Beach with OCISLY droneship for Starlink 4-31 from Vandenberg!

b.  Ready for launch.  No photo found.  

c.  Navigation warning:


Raul@Raul74Cz.    LHA map for #Starlink Group 4-29 from VSFB SLC-4E NET 03 Oct 23:21 UTC, alternatively 04 to 05 Oct based on issued NOTAM/NOTMARs. B1071.5 landing 653km downrange. Estimated fairing recovery ~665km downrange. Stage2 debris reentry in eastern Pacific. http://bit.do/LHA20.  This was for Starlink 4-29 but should be close for 4-31.

8) First stage return/ocean recovery/disposal:  Drone ship OCISLY recovery

9) Launch to deployment events/timeline:      

Hours:Minutes:Seconds after lift-off.  Times approximate.  

00:02:27  First stage MECO (main engine cutoff)
00:02:31  Stage separation
00:02:37  Second stage starts
00:02:45  Fairing deployment
00:06:46  1st stage entry burn begins
00:07:05  1st stage entry burn ends
00:08:27  1st stage landing burn starts
00:08:40  2nd stage engine cutoff
00:08:48  1st stage landing
00:15:25  Satellites deployment

10) Orbit destination:   Starlink Shell 4; 540 km circular low-Earth orbit (LEO); initial orbit: 337 x 230 km low-Earth orbit at 53.22 degrees.

Falcon Heavy went vertical at LC-39A a few hours ago, ahead of a static fire as soon as later today. @NASASpaceflight

Live 24/7: https://t.co/icguJj64A8 pic.twitter.com/DE7Qfx8z29

— Gav Cornwell \uD83D\uDEA2\uD83D\uDE80 (@SpaceOffshore) October 27, 2022

Gav Cornwell@SpaceOffshore
Falcon Heavy went vertical at LC-39A a few hours ago, ahead of a static fire as soon as later today. @NASASpaceflight

Live 24/7: http://nsf.live/spacecoast

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