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Posted: 7/24/2024 8:19:47 AM EDT
[#1]
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Posted: 7/24/2024 8:22:38 AM EDT
[#2]
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Posted: 7/24/2024 8:25:15 AM EDT
[#3]
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Posted: 7/24/2024 8:30:05 AM EDT
[#4]
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Posted: 7/24/2024 8:39:41 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#5]
   
 
 Large mechanized assaults by Russian forces continue in the area between Novomykhailivka and east of Vuhledar, almost reaching the O0532 road last week. Russian forces lost about 20 mechanized vehicles (albeit older T-62M and other models of AFV), though this does allow us to confirm a large area we had as grey is now very likely Russian held. Despite the continued poor situation in the face of overwhelming numbers (over 350 Russian vehicle losses in the 9 months since October 2023), the situation seems to be managed quite well by the 72nd Mechanized and 79th Air Assault Brigades as Russian forces have captured nothing of consequence so far in the area for that large amount of losses. Map: https://uacontrolmap.com 
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Posted: 7/24/2024 8:59:44 AM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GTNUP9dW0AAZIRR?format=jpg&name=large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GTMC8lzWoAAyn70?format=jpg&name=large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GTMEK_qWUAAWuC3?format=jpg&name=large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GTMFf6JXkAElh3v?format=jpg&name=large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GTMGtj-XQAIhg5j?format=jpg&name=large
Press release: During the SINKEXs, participating units from Australia, Malaysia, the Netherlands, the Republic of Korea, and the U.S. Air Force, Army and Navy gained proficiency in tactics, targeting and live firing against surface ships at sea. Events like live-fire SINKEXs give participating nations the ability to test and conduct training on weapons and systems in a realistic environment that cannot be replicated in simulators. Additionally, these training events refine partner nations’ abilities to plan, communicate and conduct complex maritime operations such as precision and long-range strike capabilities. “Sinking exercises give us a chance to sharpen our skills, learn from one another, and get real-world experience,” said U.S. Navy Vice Adm. John Wade, RIMPAC 2024 Combined Task Force Commander. “Using advanced weapons and seeing the professionalism of our teams during these drills shows our commitment to keeping the Indo-Pacific region safe and open.” The sinking of the ex-Tarawa included the employment of a Long-Range Anti-Ship Missile (LRASM) from a U.S. Navy F/A-18F Super Hornet. As a precise, stealthy, and survivable cruise missile, LRASM provides multi-service, multi-platform, and multi-mission capabilities for offensive anti-surface warfare. Currently, LRASMs are deployed from U.S. Navy F/A-18 and U.S. Air Force B-1B aircraft. Additionally, in a partnership with the U.S. Navy, a U.S. Air Force B-2 Spirit stealth bomber proved a low-cost, air-delivered method for defeating surface vessels through a QUICKSINK demonstration, as part of the second SINKEX. The QUICKSINK experiment is funded by the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering and aims to provide options to neutralize surface maritime threats while demonstrating the inherent flexibility of the joint force. This capability is an answer to an urgent need to quickly neutralize maritime threats over massive expanses of ocean around the world at minimal costs. “The power of RIMPAC is in how it strengthens relationships between participating nations by challenging us to conduct realistic and relevant training together,” said Royal Australian Air Force Air Commodore Louise desJardins, Combined Force Air Component Commander. “It is a real demonstration of how we plan, communicate, and conduct complex operations like a SINKEX together and reflects the value of robust relationships between regional partners." https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GTMUd0TXUAA4lnf?format=jpg&name=large
LRASM on the F18 that hit the Tarawa. With that old 1950s paint job I wonder if it's the CAG bird 
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Posted: 7/24/2024 9:01:33 AM EDT
[#7]
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Posted: 7/24/2024 9:02:35 AM EDT
[#8]
Not sure if this is Rimpac, but an SM6/F18 carrier launch
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Posted: 7/24/2024 9:04:12 AM EDT
[#9]
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Posted: 7/24/2024 9:07:01 AM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By dedreckon: Not sure if this is Rimpac, but an SM6/F18 carrier launch https://www.twz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/vfa-192-aim-174.jpg Yep, that is the RIMPAC exercise, that aircraft is from the Carl Vinson I think. That could be a live round too, no blue band on it. |
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Posted: 7/24/2024 9:17:12 AM EDT
[#11]
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Posted: 7/24/2024 9:27:05 AM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#12]
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Posted: 7/24/2024 9:54:12 AM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#13]
Flying claymore included.
Ukrainian soldiers destroy a Russian assault group in a shooting battle in the Kharkiv region https://x.com/TOGAjano21/status/1816102905197260884 |
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Posted: 7/24/2024 10:10:18 AM EDT
[#14]
What is Second Thomas Shoal and the Sierra Madre? Washington Post has an article about it, mostly from the Chinese side.
Philippines needs another obsolete vessel they can beach out there to replace Sierra Madre as it falls apart. 
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Posted: 7/24/2024 10:21:34 AM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GTLLxkxXkAA2nlu?format=jpg&name=large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GTLO_ryWUAASU-D?format=jpg&name=large Why deploy in Germany? Why not in Poland? |
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Posted: 7/24/2024 10:36:03 AM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Why deploy in Germany? Why not in Poland? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GTLLxkxXkAA2nlu?format=jpg&name=large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GTLO_ryWUAASU-D?format=jpg&name=large Why deploy in Germany? Why not in Poland? Off hand, probably harder for Russia to hit them further back. Any strike against them in Germany will have to overfly other NATO countries air defenses and air forces. The missiles fly exceedingly fast, so from launch to strike at maximum range you are talking a very short time to react, and probably most targets the U.S. would want to hit with these are all in range if stationed in Germany. This land-based, truck-launched system is armed with hypersonic missiles that can travel well over 3,800 miles per hour. They can reach the top of the Earth's atmosphere and remain just beyond the range of air and missile defense systems until they are ready to strike, and by then it's too late to react. Full paper here: https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11991#:~:text=This%20land%2Dbased%2C%20truck%2D,it The C-HGB uses a booster rocket motor to accelerate to well above hypersonic speeds and then jettisons the expended rocket booster. The C-HGB, which can travel at Mach 5 or higher on its own, is planned to be maneuverable, potentially making it more difficult to detect and intercept. Now that the Army has achieved a successful end-to-end test flight of the LRHW, the Army has stated that “once a successful flight test is achieved, the first production missile will be delivered within approximately six weeks and the first battery of eight missiles will be delivered within approximately 11 months.” If the Army proceeds with its stated course of action, it is possible that the first production missiles would be delivered to the Army in midAugust 2024. Given this short timeline between missile production and fielding to the first LRHW battery, Congress might examine what additional testing is planned to be conducted with the newly produced missiles before they are delivered to the first LRHW battery. According to a January 2023 CBO study, “U.S. Hypersonic Weapons and Alternatives,” purchasing 300 IntermediateRange Hypersonic Boost-Glide Missiles (similar to the LRHW) was estimated to cost $41 million per missile (in 2023 dollars). A January 2023 Center for Strategic and International Studies report, “The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan,” contends, regarding hypersonic weapons, “their high costs limits inventories, so they lack the volume needed to counter the immense numbers of Chinese air and naval platforms.” They are looking at the above statement incorrectly. The missiles can be used very sparingly to hit big payoff targets, like a Chinese aircraft carrier, or the seat of the enemies government and large networked command and control areas. Hitting their ability to launch satellites into orbit, or to hit the stations used to receive satellite or AWACS information to blind them. They need to think more outside the box in their simulations. 
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Posted: 7/24/2024 10:49:10 AM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Dracster: They've had several flavors of long range missiles in various stages of testing for 10-15 years. They really buckled down after 2014 and the Neptune became operational in 2021. The initial 2022 strikes probably set them back a bit. But, They've shown themselves to be pretty resourceful with adapting and overcoming. Didn't Russia hit the factory where they were building Neptunes early in the war? |
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Posted: 7/24/2024 10:58:16 AM EDT
[#18]
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Posted: 7/24/2024 10:59:39 AM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: A drone confirming the shootdown of the Su-25 posted earlier.
If SU25s can fly near the front, A10s could, right? 
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Posted: 7/24/2024 11:02:20 AM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: If SU25s can fly near the front, A10s could, right? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: A drone confirming the shootdown of the Su-25 posted earlier.
If SU25s can fly near the front, A10s could, right? Yep, I believe they could. |
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Posted: 7/24/2024 11:06:21 AM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#21]
A high-energy laser designed to destroy aerial drones was fired from a British Army Wolfhound armored vehicle at Porton Down, a military facility in southern England, Raytheon said. The company added that the US military has already deployed Raytheon's high-energy laser, which has logged more than 40,000 test hours and destroyed more than 400 targets. The publication stated that the war in Ukraine is characterized by the deployment of drones on an unprecedented scale: thousands of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) are used to track enemy forces, guide artillery and bombard targets. This transformation of warfare tactics has increased the global demand for both drones and equipment to combat them. 
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Posted: 7/24/2024 11:06:36 AM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: 12 minutes ago.
This is why Stoltenberg's comment on Poland shooting Russian targets in Ukrainian air space were so off the mark. Russia has absolutely violated the airspace of NATO member states multiple, multiple times during this conflict with NO repercussions and no penalty. Putin is the one escalating. If he doesn't want to incite NATO, he needs to keep Russian drones & missiles well within Ukrainian air space. These violations absolutely justify Poland & Romania shooting down drones & missiles that are heading their way, provided Ukraine agrees. As strong as Stoltenberg has been otherwise, his position with Poland was very odd. Remember, escalation has far more potential negative impact for the Russians than it does for NATO. Really the only card Russia has to play beyond the arson & sabotage they're already doing is nukes. The West has far more steps of escalation available that would be far worse for Russia. Putin takes advantage of the West's inherent risk avoidance. |
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Posted: 7/24/2024 11:13:32 AM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CarmelBytheSea: LOL https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/07/23/asia/south-china-sea-deal-explainer-intl-hnk Let the next resupply be carried out by the USN. Side note: the Sierra Madre was a WWII US ship, which the US gave to Philippines. It's ex-USN, IIRC. |
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Posted: 7/24/2024 11:31:46 AM EDT
[#24]
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Posted: 7/24/2024 11:35:20 AM EDT
[#25]
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Posted: 7/24/2024 11:38:32 AM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Off hand, probably harder for Russia to hit them further back. Any strike against them in Germany will have to overfly other NATO countries air defenses and air forces. The missiles fly exceedingly fast, so from launch to strike at maximum range you are talking a very short time to react, and probably most targets the U.S. would want to hit with these are all in range if stationed in Germany. That's why:  |
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Posted: 7/24/2024 11:59:04 AM EDT
[#27]
The elimination of a unit commander in the military wing of #Hamas-#Lebanon (which also includes the military wing of the Jama'ah al-Islamiyah) shows, among other things, the current cooperation with Hezbollah in activities against Israel. Despite this cooperation, there is an inherent tension between Hezbollah and Hamas in Lebanon. Lebanon's Hamas is a threat to Hezbollah from within Lebanon. Today Hezbollah uses Lebanon's Hamas. On the basis of cost versus benefit, #Hezbollah will strive in the future to greatly limit the power of Hamas-Lebanon and even to dismantle it.
The IDF has learned that digging a standard tunnel of one kilometer took Hamas about a year and cost $275,000 Interesting figure reported by @https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-19/israel-hamas-war-army-sees-progress-in-destroying-hamas-
The Hezbollah terror group has published a new propaganda video taken by one of its drones, showing the Ramat David Airbase in northern Israel. According to Hezbollah, the video was taken yesterday. There is no immediate comment from the IDF on the footage. Hezbollah has launched hundreds of drones at Israel amid the ongoing fighting, many of them laden with explosives but also some used for surveillance. Earlier this month, Hezbollah published a drone video showing Israeli military sites in the Golan Heights, and before that, in June, it released a video showing the Haifa area.
This is at least the third time Hezbollah has put out these kinds of videos, they did one along the coast showing Haifa and sensitive sites, and one on the Golan and other places and now this air base. It’s clearly several different passes by drones spliced with other elements. Hezbollah continues to send a message |
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Posted: 7/24/2024 12:06:18 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 4xGM300m: That's why: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GSh7pQwbEAAXKd1?format=jpg&name=4096x4096 Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 4xGM300m: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Off hand, probably harder for Russia to hit them further back. Any strike against them in Germany will have to overfly other NATO countries air defenses and air forces. The missiles fly exceedingly fast, so from launch to strike at maximum range you are talking a very short time to react, and probably most targets the U.S. would want to hit with these are all in range if stationed in Germany. That's why: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GSh7pQwbEAAXKd1?format=jpg&name=4096x4096  I expect the Russian systems in that area to have a lifetime measured in minutes. |
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Posted: 7/24/2024 12:26:26 PM EDT
[#29]
A former heroine of GD, Marina Butina, is now a State Duma member representing Kirov, a city about 480 miles east of Moscow. She arranged for reporters from the Washington Post to visit. She had a minder sit in on interviews with local residents, and the Post was able to talk to a couple people without minders.
In this city, people say Russia must defeat Ukraine and the West at any cost Putin worked for years to suppress independent media. The flowering of free media in the 1990s was steadily eradicated in the early 2000s. It is not easy to find alternate media in Russia, and opposition is consistently attacked, suppressed, and silenced. State propaganda is the only widely available news and information for the people. This is the climate that allowed Putin to build a new Nazi regime and launch a war of genocidal destruction. |
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Posted: 7/24/2024 12:32:56 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: What is Second Thomas Shoal and the Sierra Madre? Washington Post has an article about it, mostly from the Chinese side. Philippines needs another obsolete vessel they can beach out there to replace Sierra Madre as it falls apart. That’s a Zoinks Solomon Island thread question |
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Posted: 7/24/2024 12:36:22 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spydercomonkey: Another data point on why the US would be foolish to count on India as a reliable ally against China: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GTO3pzgWwAAVB0O?format=jpg&name=medium I never have and have stated as such here in GD years ago. India will do whatever India wants for India’s sake and that may or may not assistance but not something we can count on I take the Indo out of PACOM |
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Posted: 7/24/2024 12:38:25 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: Mohammed Mansur, a Syrian volunteer in the Russian 488th motorised rifle regiment, was sent to the fight in Ukraine in June. On July 19, he and 14 other Syrian volunteers were ordered into an offensive operation in Luhansk Oblast and soon came under drone attack. Injured, Mohammed's request for evacuation was denied, so he left the combat zone and eventually received aid from another unit. This was revealed by "Spy's Dossier" channel: https://t.me/dosye_shpiona/564 The channel states that it is common for Russian commanders to use foreign volunteers in high-risk operations without accountability, sometimes even concealing their deaths to appropriate their salaries. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GTPAsy4XIAApPwQ?format=jpg&name=large
https://kyivindependent.com/russia-is-still-recruiting-cubans-due-to-generous-payments-russian-citizenship-bloomberg-reports/ |
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Posted: 7/24/2024 12:45:38 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: A former heroine of GD, Marina Butina, is now a State Duma member representing Kirov, a city about 480 miles east of Moscow. She arranged for reporters from the Washington Post to visit. She had a minder sit in on interviews with local residents, and the Post was able to talk to a couple people without minders. In this city, people say Russia must defeat Ukraine and the West at any cost Putin worked for years to suppress independent media. The flowering of free media in the 1990s was steadily eradicated in the early 2000s. It is not easy to find alternate media in Russia, and opposition is consistently attacked, suppressed, and silenced. State propaganda is the only widely available news and information for the people. This is the climate that allowed Putin to build a new Nazi regime and launch a war of genocidal destruction. Good find, thanks for sharing. |
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Posted: 7/24/2024 1:01:11 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: https://media.tenor.com/kPUjaQpRwUsAAAAM/well-there-it-is.gif I expect the Russian systems in that area to have a lifetime measured in minutes. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Originally Posted By 4xGM300m: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Off hand, probably harder for Russia to hit them further back. Any strike against them in Germany will have to overfly other NATO countries air defenses and air forces. The missiles fly exceedingly fast, so from launch to strike at maximum range you are talking a very short time to react, and probably most targets the U.S. would want to hit with these are all in range if stationed in Germany. That's why: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GSh7pQwbEAAXKd1?format=jpg&name=4096x4096 https://media.tenor.com/kPUjaQpRwUsAAAAM/well-there-it-is.gif I expect the Russian systems in that area to have a lifetime measured in minutes. But if they shoot first... well. You explained it in your post above. |
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Posted: 7/24/2024 1:15:41 PM EDT
[#35]
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Posted: 7/24/2024 3:56:34 PM EDT
[#36]
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AL, USA
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Posted: 7/24/2024 4:07:49 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CarmelBytheSea: I never have and have stated as such here in GD years ago. India will do whatever India wants for India’s sake and that may or may not assistance but not something we can count on I take the Indo out of PACOM India's main priority always has been having lavish weddings. |
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Posted: 7/24/2024 4:22:47 PM EDT
[#38]
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Posted: 7/24/2024 4:26:02 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#39]
First person Russian perspective of a Ukrainian fpv drone strike.
https://x.com/DefMon3/status/1816197201875308961 |
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Posted: 7/24/2024 4:36:46 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Yep, that is the RIMPAC exercise, that aircraft is from the Carl Vinson I think. That could be a live round too, no blue band on it. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Originally Posted By dedreckon: Not sure if this is Rimpac, but an SM6/F18 carrier launch https://www.twz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/vfa-192-aim-174.jpg Yep, that is the RIMPAC exercise, that aircraft is from the Carl Vinson I think. That could be a live round too, no blue band on it. Good deal. Even though they are golden arrows I hope they tested it against an air target or the Tarawa |
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NC, USA
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Posted: 7/24/2024 4:41:17 PM EDT
[Last Edit: MFP_4073]
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: If SU25s can fly near the front, A10s could, right? we should have offered them every A-10 we had a year ago -- 87% of our USAF generals surely don't want them anymore they'd be flying them by now |
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Posted: 7/24/2024 4:46:17 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: First person Russian perspective of a Ukrainian fpv drone strike. https://x.com/DefMon3/status/1816197201875308961 Oooooof. Should have stayed home. |
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Posted: 7/24/2024 4:47:06 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
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Posted: 7/24/2024 5:20:29 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BlackHoleSon: India's main priority always has been having lavish weddings. 
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Posted: 7/24/2024 5:56:18 PM EDT
[#45]
Wait for it.
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Posted: 7/24/2024 6:20:34 PM EDT
[Last Edit: CarmelBytheSea]
[#46]
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Posted: 7/24/2024 6:35:37 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CarmelBytheSea: https://cdn.mangobaaz.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/family-DANCE.gif 10:10 |
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Posted: 7/24/2024 7:52:26 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryPlease tell me that Zelenskyy doesn't believe that bullshit. |
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Posted: 7/24/2024 8:59:11 PM EDT
[Last Edit: michigan66]
[#49]
To Secure the Red Sea, Sink Iran’s Navy
Attacking the Houthis hasn’t kept up with the pace of Tehran’s resupply effort. Link The main cause of this American failure [to defeat the Houthis] has been a lack of will, arising from fear that Iran would unleash its proxies on the U.S. It's time to cut supply lines to the Houthis by imitating the Reagan administration, which sank roughly half of Iran’s navy in 1988, ending Iran’s assaults on oil tankers and convincing it to end the war with Iraq. Iran has no land access to Yemen, and so all supplies to the Houthis must leave Iran by sea. The alternative [to a de facto blockade in the Sea of Oman] is for the U.S. to sink Iran’s navy. This carries the risk of escalation, but history shows that Iran typically backs down when attacked. Iran backtracked in 1988, after the Reagan administration sank roughly half of its navy. Entire WSJ article below Opinion | To Secure the Red Sea, Sink Iran’s Navy By Shay Khatiri July 22, 2024 5:31 pm ET Three consecutive U.S. administrations have failed to resolve the problem of Iranian-backed Houthi militia in Yemen—a failure demonstrated by the Iran-made drone that killed an Israeli in Tel Aviv this month, striking near the U.S. Consulate. The main cause of this American failure has been a lack of will, arising from fear that Iran would unleash its proxies on the U.S. It’s time to cut supply lines to the Houthis by imitating the Reagan administration, which sank roughly half of Iran’s navy in 1988, ending Iran’s assaults on oil tankers and convincing it to end the war with Iraq. The U.S. has tried several strategies to defeat the Houthis. In 2015, Washington began to provide support for a Saudi-Emirati campaign against the militia. After six years, the campaign had made little progress and was a humanitarian catastrophe, leading the Biden administration to end support for the Arab partners in 2021. The recent drone attack shows the failure of the campaign to reopen the Red Sea and America’s broader Yemen policy. The U.S. and its partners haven’t been able to degrade Houthi assets faster than Iran supplies them. The halting of the Saudi-Emirati assault, combined with the de facto lifting of U.S. sanctions on Iran, allowed the Houthis to grow stronger between 2021 and 2024. Following Hamas’s attack on Israel in October, the Houthis rushed to assist the Palestinians. They began by targeting the Israeli homeland and contributing to Iran’s missile and drone barrage against Israel in April. No missile launched from Yemen landed in Israel, thanks to Israeli air defense and assistance from American, European and Arab governments. But another Houthi strategy has been more successful: targeting commercial shipping through the Red Sea. The U.S. attempted to address this through Operation Prosperity Guardian, a multinational coalition aiming to reopen the Red Sea. This effort has been a humiliating failure. Israel responded to the recent drone attack by striking Houthi targets inside Yemen. But even if Israel can deter further direct attacks, the Houthis’ Red Sea strategy will continue to harm global commerce and thereby hurt Israeli interests. Israel must recognize that degrading Houthi capabilities alone won’t succeed. The Saudis, Emiratis and Americans can attest to this. Iran will continue to supply the Houthis faster than their military assets can be destroyed. America saw this effect in Afghanistan, where Pakistan resupplied the Taliban. The Afghans lacked the capability to take the fight directly to Pakistan and the U.S., for its own reasons, preferred not to. A successful strategy must cut off the supply of weapons to the Houthis, taking the fight directly to Iran. Iran has no land access to Yemen, and so all supplies to the Houthis must leave Iran by sea. The primary route is through Oman. Iran’s ships cross the Sea of Oman southward and land in northern Oman, where local tribes, with which Iran has cultivated relations, aid the transit. Other routes include exiting the Sea of Oman into the Arabian Sea and arriving in southern Oman or Yemen. To end this trade, someone needs to patrol the Sea of Oman—an expensive task for which the small Israeli navy is unequipped and that the overstretched U.S. Navy can’t undertake without cutting vital commitments elsewhere. The alternative is for the U.S. to sink Iran’s navy. This carries the risk of escalation, but history shows that Iran typically backs down when attacked. Iran backtracked in 1988, after the Reagan administration sank roughly half of its navy, and in 2020, after the Trump administration killed Qasem Soleimani, which halted Iran’s proxy attacks for months. And when Israel responded to the April barrage by attacking Iran on its own soil, Tehran didn’t retaliate. The key to ending the Houthis’ assaults on Israel and commercial shipping is interrupting their ability to restock. That will require attacking the Iranian ships that are supplying the weapons. This strategy carries risks, but defeat is the only risk-free strategy. The U.S. and Israel stand to lose the most from the continued blockade of the Red Sea. If they don’t start protecting their own interests, they will face a failure similar to the U.S. failure in Afghanistan. Mr. Khatiri is a vice president and senior fellow of the Yorktown Institute. |
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USA
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Posted: 7/24/2024 9:18:11 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By DPeacher: Please tell me that Zelenskyy doesn't believe that bullshit. It can even be technically true. They only have to supply components and industrial machinery. |
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