I don't think we're flying B26's anymore, but China's DF31 ballistic missile has a range of 5K miles...

(Yes, I know that the B2 has more than enough range as well...)

Pointless wishcasting.

First, we just need to get through the election and defeat Democrats. As I said in other threads, Trump WILL be badly wrong on some issues, and it may be that Ukraine is one of them. But a Harris Presidency will be objectively much worse overall in many ways (Chy-nah being one). They are both bad candidates IMO, but Trump individually at least still believes in America. Talk about what Trump may or may not do on Ukraine should wait until he's elected. His prospective action on Ukraine certainly isn't a deciding factor in my vote.

Palestinian sources are reporting that the IDF has surrounded the entire city of Jenin.

Right now violent clashes are taking place at several locations in the West Bank. https://t.co/lkYxY5LiDu pic.twitter.com/2R96jKLWjg

FJ  (@Natsecjeff) August 28, 2024

This looks like a major operation.   Hopefully, it caught the terrorists flat footed and they closed the noose before most could squirt!

Yeah, this is a new one.

Do we believe that stated inventory is accurate? I don't. I recall reading a similar number well over a decade ago. If you had to bet your life on it, would you bet that this number is true, or that they've quietly built double that number or more?

China's opacity and resistance to intelligence penetration is pretty impressive. They have most of what they want from us, but are able to keep almost everything of theirs under wraps.

Dafuq is wrong with that dude's head on the right?

Looks like he was either stung by a swarm of murder hornets or got some of that yellow fear goo from that awful Green Lantern movie.

Good.
Burn it all.

Biggest operation in 20 years for the area.

They even made t-shirts. Operation Summer Camp.

If there is any champagne there the death toll will be staggering...

How would you know?

Simple answer for you, why do you think we are adding so many new air bases and staging areas in the Pacific?  Each one is various ranges from Chinese ballistic missiles.  Each one spreads out and pulls various ballistic and cruise missiles from Chinese inventory to hit.  Each missile system they make to hit the targets at longer distances gets more costly to produce in larger numbers.  

The inventory is higher than that claim, I was not asking you to believe the Indian assessment of Chinese missiles in that article.   We most likely have a good idea of the numbers in classified sessions and this is just a public example of the U.S. dealing with it.  Ballistic missile defense systems really add to the number of Chinese missiles required to hit U.S. airbases at the various ranges, because of the lack of accuracy of Chinese missiles and our EW, but I won't get into that.

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2023/08/air-force-expanding-number-bases-pacific-over-next-decade/389834/

He's a pessimist.

As a history buff, it would be very cool to explore that island.

My bet is all of the above. especially fire control: things they need to aim like optics and thermals.

As someone with hoarding tendencies. Same.

My grandfather was there during WWII.  He said it was the first time in his life he had ever seen blacktop asphalt.

AFU needs a couple more divisions. The failure of the leadership to move quickly on mobilization when Zaluzhny brought it up is showing results on the ground that strongly favor Russia. Zelensky and the Rada own this.

Syrski might get canned for being the guy in charge during major losses, but it's not all his fault. He (and Zaluzhny before him) did not get the full support from the civilian government that they needed.

@Easterner - your take on this comment?

If you assume the worst, all surprises are good ones.

Your prior reply is good, thanks. Obviously, more targets suck up more missiles. Diversify your risk is for more than just investments. I don't even recall when I read numbers similar to that for China's inventory, it might have been 15 years ago, and at the time the context was a continued build-up to overwhelm any defense of Taiwan. Clearly, that has been their strategy. Giving the impression of overwhelming force is something the US has employed. We have much less ability to do that than we used to.

Damn it! Now I was some Toblerone...

A B-29 is the only offensive aircraft that has ever used Tinian North Field, AFAIK, although to significant effect. It was closed in 1947. A C-130 landed there a few years ago to, like, prove it could be done or something.

Its function is meant to be as a dispersal airfield for Anderson AFB on Guam.

If the French find out that the Ukrainians had been operating a champagne factory outside of Champagne .... ouch.

No problem, glad to help visualize a strategy.

ISW assessment for August 27th.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-27-2024

WSJ saying Russia’s moved 90% of their aircraft beyond UA missile range.

https://www.wsj.com/world/ukraine-deploys-f-16s-against-massive-russian-barrage-but-says-it-doesnt-have-enough-of-them-7781b133



Ukrainian F-16s received from the USA the latest version of the anti-aircraft missile defense system of the Russian Federation, even NATO allies do not have it

The US Air Force's 350th Spectrum Warfare Wing has upgraded the F-16 of the Ukrainian Air Force to counter Russian air defenses


The US Air Force has officially announced that Ukrainian F-16 fighter jets have received a special upgrade of their electronic countermeasures systems. They were introduced to effectively counter Russian air defense systems, taking into account the specifics of their operation.

This update was conducted by the 350th Spectrum Warfare Wing, the US Air Force unit responsible for the development, adaptation, and tactical development of EW, as well as updating and generally managing the development of these systems.

As reported by the unit's press service, the work was carried out by specialists of the 68th Electronic Warfare Squadron, which is part of the wing. And it was a unique operation due to several factors.

First, the work had to be carried out with equipment that is not in service with the US Air Force. On the part of Defense Express, we note that it is obviously an ECIPS/CJS container that was spotted on Ukrainian fighter jets.

Secondly, the deadlines that were tied to the date of the transfer of fighter jets to Ukraine are very tight. Therefore, American specialists first had to investigate the real capabilities of the equipment, and then modernize its software part based on the algorithms used by the US Air Force to counter Russian air defense systems.

It is worth adding that the very fact of this is already quite interesting. Because it turns out that the Netherlands and Denmark, namely the planes of these countries, as mentioned, received updates, did not have access to American advanced solutions. Although it is possible that it is only a matter of interest and the European partners simply did not show the appropriate initiative.

In any case, American specialists worked together with European colleagues, and also successfully tested all updates. Thanks to this, it is possible to be sure that the Ukrainian F-16s really got very interesting opportunities to effectively suppress Russian systems, which means increasing the safety and effectiveness of attacks on Russian air defense systems.

But what is more important is that the official message clearly states: the US Air Force will receive information from Ukrainian colleagues regarding the use of these electronic warfare devices in real combat. This will make it possible to make further updates to the operation of the systems, not only for Ukraine, but also for the United States and other NATO members.

https://defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/ukrajinski_f_16_otrimali_vid_ssha_najnovishu_versiju_reb_proti_ppo_rf_jiji_ne_majut_navit_sojuzniki_po_nato-16428.html

Daily Ukraine map thread for Tuesday 27th August 2024

Highlights: We talked about the rapidly deteriorating situation in the Pokrovsk and Selydove directions, which continues to go rapidly badly for Ukraine, so today will focus on the Novomykhailivka direction.

Today Russian forces finally captured Kostyantynivka and raised their flag in the west of the settlement, and were geolocated to have reached the O0532 road near Vodiane. This area has been extremely costly for Russian forces, losing roughly ~450 vehicles in less than a year

Map: https://uacontrolmap.com

Daily Ukraine map thread for Tuesday 27th August 2024

Highlights: We talked about the rapidly deteriorating situation in the Pokrovsk and Selydove directions, which continues to go rapidly badly for Ukraine, so today will focus on the Novomykhailivka direction.

Today Russian… pic.twitter.com/XyxHHbjgOi

Ukraine Control Map  (@UAControlMap) August 27, 2024

Guerre d'Ukraine

Vue générale de l'axe Avdiivka-Pokrovsk au 26/08/24.#UkraineRussianWar #GuerreEnUkraine pic.twitter.com/D4XH51kHpt

Poulet volant  (@Pouletvolant3) August 27, 2024

"This is Atlas burning again. The explosion was around 3 a.m.,  It's scary to sleep,"

— a video from the Kamensky District of the Rostov Region, where the Rosrezerv Atlas plant is burning after a UAV attack.
https://t.me/astrapress/62907



More footage from the scene of the fire at the Rosrezerv Atlas plant in the Rostov region after the UAV attack
https://t.me/astrapress/62908



The Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked an oil depot in the Rostov region.

The attack on the oil depot located near the village of Molodezhny in the Kamensky district of the region occurred at about 3 a.m. During the attack, two drones fell on the territory of the oil depot. A fire started.

At the moment, three tanks are burning. According to preliminary data, there are no casualties. Two fire trains are currently working at the site of the fire.

https://t.me/bazabazon/30716

This guy makes a good point...

When these start raining down on Ru tactical/strategic airframe and air defense concentrations my cackling will reach unprecedented levels. It's almost as if invading the part of the former soviet union responsible for avionics and engineering was a bad idea, crazy right? https://t.co/3CIlNeLYwU pic.twitter.com/hJd6paGBPP

— Josh \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDF8\uD83C\uDDE6\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 (@jrt_191) August 28, 2024

His avatar is appropriate...

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3276129/asia-rapidly-sliding-towards-war-and-us-blame-says-chinese-professor

I believe its due to their early partnership with Gerald Bull (sort of a John Browning of modern artillery) plus SA being short on aircraft, and having to use artillery very heavily in their past wars.

As for commies, weapons are made by the 'minority' of SA, who are quite different then the government.

Bummer, was hoping Ukraine would hold it. Russia changes names of locations they seize https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/08/28/what-the-fall-of-pokrovsk-could-mean-for-ukraine/

Seems optimistic to me; if they hit ammo or fuel storage, or parked planes there...much bigger issue.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/08/28/what-the-fall-of-pokrovsk-could-mean-for-ukraine/

What I posted in the Tinian thread:

Tyranny of distance still in effect:





B21's, B52's, sure.

F15EX / F35 going to need JASSM-ER and likely JASSM-XR to reach.

/ We should really be looking into a 'FB-35 Bomber' similar to the 'FB-22 Strike Raptor' concept; longer range larger payload, but with decent parts compatibility to keep costs slightly less outrageous vs a new bomber:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_Martin_FB-22

I hope they budgeted better than summer and votgle. Cost overruns were enormous on the AP1000.

I honestly think we'll face just as much / more threat from random 'fishing vessels' and 'commercial ships' launching Loitering Munitions at our bases, especially as AI targeting improves.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/chinese-civilian-vessels-could-prove-a-military-menace/articleshow/112824996.cms?from=mdr

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-27-2024

That's pretty weird because my grand uncle was stationed there also during the war.

What was the most interesting for him was that he had several Jews in his crew and it was the first time they tried bacon and pork products mainly spam.

He went to reunions and as a joke, they had spam and some of those Jews still were excited to try Spam.

He said and told me and shared with me pictures of some of the B29's and other planes that landed on the island.

https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/Iran-Nuclear-Deal-Off-the-Table-US-Affirms.amp.html

Did anything ever happen to the patriot deal from Israel?

Yep, most have turbines, but they received at least 200 T-80UD with diesel engines too.

In late 2023 the Russians even restarted the turbine production because they can't build enough engines.

The patriots and samp-t have the ability to engage ballistic missiles.

I’m not sure Ukraine has any s300V systems?

Ukraine has S-300V. And PT. And others.

I’d love to see a detailed plan.

Ukraine has almost every version ever made from the t80b to the bv, UD, and U and K models.

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/08/28/zelenskyy-to-present-ukraines-victory-plan-to-us-in-september

lol, following now, thanks.

Good examples, and this is why you are going to see more bases in the Northern Philippines.  Don't forget the bases in Japan we can use, or S.Korea.  Multiple Carrier battlegroups also bolster aircraft and air defense in an area where they go.

That's pretty awesome.

I haven't heard anything yet.  They would take some time for any refurbishment and software installation for Ukraine if they were given.

Correct, our and other Western systems are more capable of intercepting ballistic missiles, I was just pointing out as far as Russian made systems, the Ukrainians would only have the S-300V series to have a chance against things like Iksander-M and etc.

Ukraine does have S300V.  How many I do not know, but I know of at least one.