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Posted: 12/2/2022 1:25:58 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Cummins is probably like Ford, Gm, Toyota who all want to dream about making ICE engines forever because that's their whole business. But Chevy, ford, Toyota all got dunked on by musk. Musk was right then and they were all wrong. I don't think OTR is going to be flipped but full load 500 miles is a shot across the bow. People thought ICE vehicles were impossible and a toy compared to horse teamsters at first. That the logistics were simply impossible for the millions of Mechanics and roads and gas stations necessary for those "logistics" as well. But necessity is the mother of invention. The capacity grew with the demand. Right now batteries have a capacity issue. Fix that and it's a legit truck power source, right now it is not. The energy density required for heavy duty trucks doesn't scale in current battery tech. Musk deserves credit for pushing the bounds, especially with space X. But until the battery tech is there I don't see him owning much of the medium and heavy duty market |
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Posted: 12/2/2022 1:27:38 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Weird, the driver sits in the center of the cab. Which is cool until it isn't. Literally everywhere you go in a freight truck you have to talk to a security booth or swipe a badge. Then there's the Border Patrol checkpoints. And scales. And DOT inspections. |
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Posted: 12/2/2022 1:28:07 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryQuoted: What we don’t know is: Where is the economic price floor for battery technology? Quote HistoryQuoted: What we don’t know is: Where is the economic price floor for battery technology? It's based on resource scarcity and the rare earth minerals needed for li-ion batteries. That scarcity timeline is FAR shorter than hydrocarbons. Where is the economic price floor for hydrogen technology? This economic floor isn't based on the economics. Let's assume the technology improves thus improving the economics. The achilles heel to hydrogen is the pollution to generate the fuel. Environmentalists will have a field day. Think 10x the pollution costs to current EV raw material extraction costs. How will politics affect all this? If EVs solve the 'ClImaTe CrIsIs' then hydrogen is useless. How will the drop of hydrocarbon prices affect the adoption rate of non-ICE vehicles? Etc. See above. |
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Posted: 12/2/2022 1:30:41 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You're drinking too much of the kool-aid. Toyota is still betting on hydrogen and the big 3 are going balls out down the lithium path. They will out produce Tesla in very short order. Don't let the market cap fool you, the big 3 are giants and Toyota beats them. Tesla market cap is based on hype and the fact that Musk did beat the majors to the punch. Ford and GM both beat him out the gate with a truck. GM has a couple. They're stupid but they are out there Right now batteries have a capacity issue. Fix that and it's a legit truck power source, right now it is not. The energy density required for heavy duty trucks doesn't scale in current battery tech. Musk deserves credit for pushing the bounds, especially with space X. But until the battery tech is there I don't see him owning much of the medium and heavy duty market Agreed. Economics 101 tells us that the first to market rarely holds the top spot for very long. |
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Posted: 12/2/2022 1:31:11 PM EDT
[#5]
It may have niche applications for in-city transfers and moving containers around ports and things of that nature. I straight up don't buy the 500 mile range claim, maybe on paper it can hit that at 72 degrees on flat ground. In real world use...no way.
Until we have either a revolution in energy storage, like 500 Wh/kg hyper-capacitors or some sort of battery chemistry that doesn't needs close to no platinum group metals. |
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Posted: 12/2/2022 1:33:28 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Agreed. Economics 101 tells us that the first to market rarely holds the top spot for very long. |
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Posted: 12/2/2022 1:35:18 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I'm not up on the capabilities for the economics of ramping output of nuclear to load match. If that can even be done. But that's why (assuming nukes can load match and save money) 1. Nuclear. 2. Solar (basically Free energy that helps load match for AC's in most of the US). 3. Practical energy storage followed by the greeny weeny shit. Greeny weeny shit doesn't seem like practical use until practical energy storage allows you to store the energy. After you can store LOTS of energy then just find the best way to gather it for as little output as possible. Wind farms, etc. become somewhat reliable then. Solar and wind are a net negative on a power grid. Look at Germany. It's all bullshit quasi religious dogma. I'm all for conserving our planet, but we need to cut the bullshit and engineer real solutions that won't collapse our society in pursuit of a mythical good. |
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Posted: 12/2/2022 1:39:00 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Wasn't first to market the GM EV1? No. You can't be considered first to market if no one buys your product. |
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Posted: 12/2/2022 1:44:08 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It’s a toy because it’s not a money making asset. It’s done mostly, for marketing purposes. I’m sure the economic costs have been projected and shared by Tesla with their larger buyers. As they all have to justify these costs, as they’re publicly traded companies. The boom-bust cycle of fuel / oil will continue. EVs will add to the chaos that already has started. As will hydrogen. The government has failed worse than private industry, in stopping the boom bust cycle of oil. If you buy something today that isnt profitable, but you think it will be in the future, then it isn't a toy. As to cost to drive, they are saying its better then 2kwh a mile. So just calling it 2kwh to be safe, at $0.1kWh (more then I pay at night), that means it did its 500 mile trip on under $100 in energy cost. My Jeep cant do that. If Pepsi did get them at $150k (doubt for 500 mile range model) but lets say maybe. They also get a $40k tax credit for buying an all electric semi and 30% of the cost of charging infrastructure is a tax write off. Im guessing its not a big loss for them if a loss at all. |
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Posted: 12/2/2022 1:49:35 PM EDT
[#10]
I still like these Canadians with what they are doing. They are using Tesla batteries and a drive motor, then they put a big diesel generator under the hood. The truck runs on the batteries, as the batteries drain, then the generator kicks on and recharges the batteries. To me this makes more sense than an only electric vehicle.
https://www.edisonmotors.ca/  Chace answers 10 questions |
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Posted: 12/2/2022 1:51:22 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Nuclear starts...goes to a high fraction of rated output...and pretty much stays there for months at a time. It is a base load generation technology. It does not load shape. Natgas turbines load shape, solar and wind don't do anything predictable and therefor require natgas or hydro generation on hot standby to keep the grid stable. Solar and wind are a net negative on a power grid. Look at Germany. It's all bullshit quasi religious dogma. I'm all for conserving our planet, but we need to cut the bullshit and engineer real solutions that won't collapse our society in pursuit of a mythical good. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I'm not up on the capabilities for the economics of ramping output of nuclear to load match. If that can even be done. But that's why (assuming nukes can load match and save money) 1. Nuclear. 2. Solar (basically Free energy that helps load match for AC's in most of the US). 3. Practical energy storage followed by the greeny weeny shit. Greeny weeny shit doesn't seem like practical use until practical energy storage allows you to store the energy. After you can store LOTS of energy then just find the best way to gather it for as little output as possible. Wind farms, etc. become somewhat reliable then. Solar and wind are a net negative on a power grid. Look at Germany. It's all bullshit quasi religious dogma. I'm all for conserving our planet, but we need to cut the bullshit and engineer real solutions that won't collapse our society in pursuit of a mythical good. Ok cool! Thanks for the info. Nuclear, hydro best case should be your minimum? Then you load match with NatGas bascially and other HC’s? So would the only greeny Weeny way forward be to hopefully load match with some practical battery set up like mechanical batteries or maybe lithium? Once you have that you simply find the most effective or green ways to load up your energy stored including NatGas/coal if necessary? Practical large scale energy storage is fascinating btw. Vacuumed flywheels, gravity batteries, molten deep cycle batteries etc. Will any of them be practical? Idk :( |
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Posted: 12/2/2022 1:52:19 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted: No. You can't be considered first to market if no one buys your product. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Wasn't first to market the GM EV1? No. You can't be considered first to market if no one buys your product. Baker made electric vehicles like 100 years ago. |
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Posted: 12/2/2022 1:54:17 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I still like these Canadians with what they are doing. They are using Tesla batteries and a drive motor, then they put a big diesel generator under the hood. The truck runs on the batteries, as the batteries drain, then the generator kicks on and recharges the batteries. To me this makes more sense than an only electric vehicle. https://www.edisonmotors.ca/  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V64TMuJqecEDiesel electric always seemed the smartest way forward for me. |
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Posted: 12/2/2022 1:54:42 PM EDT
[#14]
The only way this thing is the future is with the threat of government guns, same as any other EV.
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Posted: 12/2/2022 1:55:10 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted: they mentioned that electric trucks can go up to 82k lbs I worked for EV heavy equipment and class-8 truck & bus development and 2k lbs increase doesn't help. KW day cab ICE and same spec electric had appprox. 8k lbs net weight difference (EV being 8k heavier) so the DOT gcw limit would need to be 88k or more. EV doesn't allow tag axle so these can't be used to pull overweight lowboys etc as the batteries consume the space of tag axle. Likewise the reefer trailers, currently they run Thermo King or Carrier diesel units, EV would ofcourse require electric reefer and they consume arms and legs of electricity so the trailer would need to have own battery pack, another 8-10k lbs payload reduction... |
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Posted: 12/2/2022 2:01:44 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted: No lol, are you a trucker? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Electric makes far more sense for trucking than it does for personally-owned vehicles. I have no idea if the Tesla version is going to be successful, but it’s coming in one form or another. No lol, are you a trucker? No, but I worked in the industry for a few years. Not everything is long haul. It’s a hell of a lot easier to install infrastructure at a yard for a few dozen trucks than it is to install charging stations in a bunch of homes. |
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Posted: 12/2/2022 2:05:20 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I worked for EV heavy equipment and class-8 truck & bus development and 2k lbs increase doesn't help. KW day cab ICE and same spec electric had appprox. 8k lbs net weight difference (EV being 8k heavier) so the DOT gcw limit would need to be 88k or more. EV doesn't allow tag axle so these can't be used to pull overweight lowboys etc as the batteries consume the space of tag axle. Likewise the reefer trailers, currently they run Thermo King or Carrier diesel units, EV would ofcourse require electric reefer and they consume arms and legs of electricity so the trailer would need to have own battery pack, another 8-10k lbs payload reduction... Refer units can be converted to run on both diesel and electric. Looking back we installed 30A 480V to each unit. |
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Posted: 12/2/2022 2:28:19 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Nuclear starts...goes to a high fraction of rated output...and pretty much stays there for months at a time. It is a base load generation technology. It does not load shape. Natgas turbines load shape, solar and wind don't do anything predictable and therefor require natgas or hydro generation on hot standby to keep the grid stable. Solar and wind are a net negative on a power grid. Look at Germany. It's all bullshit quasi religious dogma. I'm all for conserving our planet, but we need to cut the bullshit and engineer real solutions that won't collapse our society in pursuit of a mythical good. At least with traditional fuel rod reactors, can't fission rate be throttled via control rods? |
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Posted: 12/2/2022 2:48:13 PM EDT
[#19]
I'm sure they'll find some good uses for them. A couple of the truckers here talked about running to Sacramento or San Francisco daily. San Fran would be just over 500 miles round trip so maybe you could make it if you were empty one way. There's also a mountain pass so maybe that negates it all. Fun to find out.
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Posted: 12/2/2022 4:07:41 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Which is probably the extra 2k. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Tractor is around 27k pounds. A diesel tractor is around 25k pounds. Not a huge difference. I mean current trucks hold up to 300 gallons of diesel that's an extra 2,100lbs for a full tank. Which is probably the extra 2k. |
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Posted: 12/2/2022 4:46:05 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You need competent labor and reliable processes to make that happen and you're adding a lot of weight to ensure the battery mounts can handle getting hit by a forklift daily. The safety aspect of an external lithium battery with no crash protection is terrible as well. Charging infrastructure is far simpler than quick change infrastructure when you factor in the labor alone. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: What about external battery mounts with quick change interface? The only downside I see to Driverless trucks is high jacking. |
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Posted: 12/2/2022 5:57:02 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Nuclear starts...goes to a high fraction of rated output...and pretty much stays there for months at a time. It is a base load generation technology. It does not load shape. Natgas turbines load shape, solar and wind don't do anything predictable and therefor require natgas or hydro generation on hot standby to keep the grid stable. Solar and wind are a net negative on a power grid. Look at Germany. It's all bullshit quasi religious dogma. I'm all for conserving our planet, but we need to cut the bullshit and engineer real solutions that won't collapse our society in pursuit of a mythical good. Even when most power was overwhelming coal powered and natural gas was almost nonexistent, some smaller coal plants were used as peaking plants and larger coal plants were base load although they could load follow if required. In France, where 75% of power is nuclear, some nuclear plants are operated as load followers out of necessity. Others function as base load. Germany also operated nuclear plants as load followers at some point. Nuclear plants can be operated as load followers. In the United States, under present conditions, it does not make sense to do so. |
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Posted: 12/2/2022 5:58:29 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted: No. You can't be considered first to market if no one buys your product. |
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Posted: 12/2/2022 6:02:15 PM EDT
[#24]
Many of the hydrogen research is spurred by government money
Many of the EV sales are spurred by taxes Quote HistoryQuoted: EV1 wasn't available for sale. It was lease only. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: No. You can't be considered first to market if no one buys your product. The EV1 was desired by consumers, but the claim by GM that it was something like a $75k car leasing for less than half that. It wasn't economically viable at that lease rate despite the consumer like of the vehicle. There were many EV attempts long prior to the EV1 |
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Posted: 12/2/2022 6:07:08 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Ok cool! Thanks for the info. Nuclear, hydro best case should be your minimum? Then you load match with NatGas bascially and other HC's? So would the only greeny Weeny way forward be to hopefully load match with some practical battery set up like mechanical batteries or maybe lithium? Once you have that you simply find the most effective or green ways to load up your energy stored including NatGas/coal if necessary? Practical large scale energy storage is fascinating btw. Vacuumed flywheels, gravity batteries, molten deep cycle batteries etc. Will any of them be practical? Idk :( Energy storage is always useful and desirable. New battery technologies are being worked on that make some scale of storage possible. |
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Posted: 12/2/2022 6:19:51 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Diesel electric always seemed the smartest way forward for me. Or maybe Natgas electric ?, How many buyers will have a Natgas genset powering the charge station or at least the backup source . Letourneau back in the 1950's was big into Diesel electric and that trend should have continued. |
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Posted: 12/2/2022 6:23:44 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Remember, they have a weight allowance for APUs. I think they are trying to keep the numbers up on freight capacity. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Tractor is around 27k pounds. A diesel tractor is around 25k pounds. Not a huge difference. I mean current trucks hold up to 300 gallons of diesel that's an extra 2,100lbs for a full tank. Which is probably the extra 2k. The APU weight allowance is not nationwide. Some states don't allow it. |
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Posted: 12/2/2022 6:28:40 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted: At least with traditional fuel rod reactors, can't fission rate be throttled via control rods? They have special control rods that are specifically for fine tuning reaction rate rather than shutting down the reactor. The fact that PWR's and BWR's can load follow does not mean that a specific unit can. It also doesn't mean the unit is licensed to do so. |
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Posted: 12/2/2022 10:29:05 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted: In the United States, nuclear plants amount to about 19% of generating capacity. Nuclear power plants have high fixed costs and low variable costs, so it makes the most economic sense to operate nuclear power plants as base load plants near full capacity. Natural gas or other plants depending on generator mix are used to follow loads. Even when most power was overwhelming coal powered and natural gas was almost nonexistent, some smaller coal plants were used as peaking plants and larger coal plants were base load although they could load follow if required. In France, where 75% of power is nuclear, some nuclear plants are operated as load followers out of necessity. Others function as base load. Germany also operated nuclear plants as load followers at some point. Nuclear plants can be operated as load followers. In the United States, under present conditions, it does not make sense to do so. Why aren't plants in the US licensed to load follow? Is it a technical limitation or just no economical because natgas plants are better at it? |
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Posted: 12/2/2022 10:40:03 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Electric makes far more sense for trucking than it does for personally-owned vehicles. I have no idea if the Tesla version is going to be successful, but it’s coming in one form or another. Personal vehicles have a typical utilization of 5%; trucks maybe 25%. Agree. |
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Posted: 12/2/2022 10:43:01 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Refer units can be converted to run on both diesel and electric. Looking back we installed 30A 480V to each unit. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I worked for EV heavy equipment and class-8 truck & bus development and 2k lbs increase doesn't help. KW day cab ICE and same spec electric had appprox. 8k lbs net weight difference (EV being 8k heavier) so the DOT gcw limit would need to be 88k or more. EV doesn't allow tag axle so these can't be used to pull overweight lowboys etc as the batteries consume the space of tag axle. Likewise the reefer trailers, currently they run Thermo King or Carrier diesel units, EV would ofcourse require electric reefer and they consume arms and legs of electricity so the trailer would need to have own battery pack, another 8-10k lbs payload reduction... Refer units can be converted to run on both diesel and electric. Looking back we installed 30A 480V to each unit. Correct, that said the electric reefer will need another battery pack as it can't run from the truck otherwise there isn't much mileage left. |
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Posted: 12/2/2022 10:49:43 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Correct, that said the electric reefer will need another battery pack as it can't run from the truck otherwise there isn't much mileage left. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: I worked for EV heavy equipment and class-8 truck & bus development and 2k lbs increase doesn't help. KW day cab ICE and same spec electric had appprox. 8k lbs net weight difference (EV being 8k heavier) so the DOT gcw limit would need to be 88k or more. EV doesn't allow tag axle so these can't be used to pull overweight lowboys etc as the batteries consume the space of tag axle. Likewise the reefer trailers, currently they run Thermo King or Carrier diesel units, EV would ofcourse require electric reefer and they consume arms and legs of electricity so the trailer would need to have own battery pack, another 8-10k lbs payload reduction... Refer units can be converted to run on both diesel and electric. Looking back we installed 30A 480V to each unit. Correct, that said the electric reefer will need another battery pack as it can't run from the truck otherwise there isn't much mileage left. Could they just do a standalone diesel reefer? That would be pretty funny and save all that precious energy for the truck. |
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Posted: 12/2/2022 10:51:04 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That's how the French do it with PWR's. They have special control rods that are specifically for fine tuning reaction rate rather than shutting down the reactor. The fact that PWR's and BWR's can load follow does not mean that a specific unit can. It also doesn't mean the unit is licensed to do so. Do BWRs have flux shaping rods as well? I didn't mean to imply they couldn't be throttled, uts just not the way they are operated in the US. As far as storage for solar and wind, it's certainly needed but short of something like pumped storage these things don't exist at at meaningful scale yet do they? The impact of solar and wind on grid stability is a real issue isn't it? |
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Posted: 12/2/2022 11:36:12 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The battery in a passenger car weighs that much. A rig would need 10s of thousands of pounds of battery to haul OTR full weight loads for 10 hours straight. It'll be interesting to see this play out. The engine and transmission in a semi weigh 1.5 tons~. This subtracted from the tractor gives you some payload be batteries. Not to mention another thousand pounds of fuel this truck doesn’t need. 3500 pounds of fuel and drivetrain lost and 1000 pounds for electric drivetrain give you 4K pounds of cargo. I was driving a dedicated route to Pennsylvania from central Ohio. Columbus to Pittsburgh. 390 miles round trip. The Tesla truck would fit this route well. I’m a CDL driver and am excited. DEF trucks are not dependable and electric drivetrains are very dependable. |
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Posted: 12/2/2022 11:39:21 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Weird, the driver sits in the center of the cab. The side cameras pop out so there isn’t a blind side. This is a plus. CDL driver. |
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Posted: 12/2/2022 11:43:07 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The engine and transmission in a semi weigh 1.5 tons~. This subtracted from the tractor gives you some payload be batteries. Not to mention another thousand pounds of fuel this truck doesn't need. 3500 pounds of fuel and drivetrain lost and 1000 pounds for electric drivetrain give you 4K pounds of cargo. I was driving a dedicated route to Pennsylvania from central Ohio. Columbus to Pittsburgh. 390 miles round trip. The Tesla truck would fit this route well. I'm a CDL driver and am excited. DEF trucks are not dependable and electric drivetrains are very dependable. |
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Posted: 12/2/2022 11:51:49 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Lets go! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1YoBiNhjMPgGet your cameras ready for the most badass battery fire evah. My body is ready   
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