Posted: 8/30/2025 2:18:54 PM EDT
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Nobody wants to read a book I've written so I'll keep it short as possible. Please counter my points so I get some clarity. I recently started a small position in Jan 2027 puts on the SPY as a hedge, and have been pushing new investments away from stocks to short term bonds. Regardless, if the market crashes I'm getting skinned just not as bad as I otherwise might. Earnings. Current PE ratio is at very elevated levels of about 29. Americans spending getting hurt by inflation, recent employment number revisions, lead me to believe that earnings growth will not justify that multiple. Unbalanced. Tech growth has unbalanced the index. Currently IT represents 34% of the index. NVDA alone makes up 8% of the index. Compare to dot com bust, or 2008. Before the dot com bust tech was 30%, and after the crash 12%. Before 08 Financials reached around 22%. Recently heard Jeremy Grantham talking about the history of world changing tech. His example was the rail roads. Everyone knew they would change the world and rushed in to invest in them regardless of value. As a result they were overbuilt and many went bust. More recently the dot com boom then bust. AI disruptive technology. In a consumer economy AI disruption to employment may have as many negatives as positives for stable growth. Buffet. Highest cash position in his history. Consistently selling stocks positions for cash despite inflation risk. Passive investors. Massive increase in automatic investment into index funds via 401k, IRA, etc. If the thing starts to wobble I'm afraid these same people will rush the exits because up and to the right is their baked in expectation. Political instability. Inability to come to terms with the budget deficit makes de facto default and currency crisis a growing threat. _____________________________________________ Contrary: If the US economy shits the bed no equities anywhere will be safe from a crash. Cash and bonds will be subject to inflation risk because the fed will crank up the money printer to offset economic headwinds. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. |
| What time frame are you looking at? Historically, and it's quite consistent, September has the worst market performance of any month. Negative forecasts are pretty much always spot on for September, at least. |
For a people who are free, and who mean to remain so, a well-organized and armed militia is their best security.
Thomas Jefferson
"He didnt punch anybody. He punched an idea." DrFrige
Thomas Jefferson
"He didnt punch anybody. He punched an idea." DrFrige
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Interesting take OP. I’m not a fan of investing in the S&P 500 for my own reasons but I wouldn’t say that I’m necessarily bearish or bullish on the index. The idea of an index bubble caused by all the passive investing is an interesting theory. Especially considering 10-20% of the S&P doesn’t even meet the market cap requirement for inclusion and the 10-20% above them probably wouldn’t if they lost the regular buying pressure from all the ETF inflows. |
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I get your point about tech stocks, I got skinned in the Dot Com bust, lost a million of unrecognized gains. I'm very wary of all the people high on AI... I'm trying to figure out WHO is gonna make money on this flawed technology (I'm a computer scientist). Sure NVIDIA is flying high because they make the most sophisticated chips for this application, but China (Deep Thought) recently proved they could performed 90% of the function that most people would use with lessor chips and for far less cost. If this continues it will sweep the legs out from under the high cost efforts. Also, these AI systems suffer from the same human induced problems as any system - Garbage In Garbage out. Much of the time now these systems are curated. Input and output are controlled or curated to alter inconvenient output. As soon as folks find out that they cannot necessarily trust the output we may see some changes in the expected adoption. I also think that people might begin to see this technology for what it is, and that's straight up evil. I think it will benefit primarily the people we really don't want to empower or benefit at the expense of everyone else. AI Rant Off I'm right in the middle trying to decide if I should go more aggressive or less in the market, based on the business friendly administration and likely lower interest rates. I'm currently leaning to stay conservative. Or go into the market hard, ride it, and get out when the shit hits fan....which it will not be too many years (or months) from now. Everything seems to be a manipulation, lie, or prognostications by delusional useful idiots. We are swimming in delusion. We have so many problems, and the President is lining us up for more severe volatility in the future. I think he is flailing around because we may be in beginning of an inflationary spiral. No one wants to buy our bogus Treasury notes because the interest paid is not commensurate with the risk because we have a $37 trillion deficit with NO plan to stop spending let alone pay it off, yet consumers and businesses cannot borrow at a rate that drives economic expansion, but if they lower the interest rates inflation will accelerate, inflation is still too high right now officially 2.7% (unofficially higher, quite a bit higher). Then there is the crazy crypto money plan...I don't believe in that crap, I don't trust the people running that crap, and I don't trust the technology behind that crap. Question: You want me to invest in something that has NO INTRINSIC VALUE just because there is an artificial shortage of bits stored on a hard disk some where? I may have been born at night, but not LAST night. The world is a mess and the US has succeed in pissing off 75% of the planet. Trump recently tried to twist India's arm to stop them from buying Russian oil. What a dumb shit idea, India sent the US packing. And why shouldn't they? Russia has been a much more reliable partner with better policies toward relations with other countries than the West (US). The point is that the rest of the World can only be bullied for so long before they find a way to DITCH the DOLLAR.. Ever heard of BRICS? They have a viable plan, as they watch the US destroy confidence in our debt, but also in our relations, and policies. They are just waiting to supplant the dollar, slowly at first, then... There are so many problems. Only go into the market with your eyes wide open. |
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Originally Posted By JCoop: What time frame are you looking at? Historically, and it's quite consistent, September has the worst market performance of any month. Negative forecasts are pretty much always spot on for September, at least. I'm semi retired and primarily live on investment income. |
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Originally Posted By makintrax73: I'm semi retired and primarily live on investment income. Based on your situation and thesis laid out in the original post have you considered selling covered calls against your stock positions to generate income & hedge based on your suspicions? |
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Originally Posted By Procat: Based on your situation and thesis laid out in the original post have you considered selling covered calls against your stock positions to generate income & hedge based on your suspicions? I have in the past, but not currently. I agree selling covered calls is a good intermediate risk reducing strategy. Probably a good idea to strongly consider because most straight sales would come with tax consequences that would be substantial. Appreciate the thought. |
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Originally Posted By ScottsBad: I get your point about tech stocks, I got skinned in the Dot Com bust, lost a million of unrecognized gains. I'm very wary of all the people high on AI... I'm trying to figure out WHO is gonna make money on this flawed technology (I'm a computer scientist). Sure NVIDIA is flying high because they make the most sophisticated chips for this application, but China (Deep Thought) recently proved they could performed 90% of the function that most people would use with lessor chips and for far less cost. If this continues it will sweep the legs out from under the high cost efforts. Also, these AI systems suffer from the same human induced problems as any system - Garbage In Garbage out. Much of the time now these systems are curated. Input and output are controlled or curated to alter inconvenient output. As soon as folks find out that they cannot necessarily trust the output we may see some changes in the expected adoption. I also think that people might begin to see this technology for what it is, and that's straight up evil. I think it will benefit primarily the people we really don't want to empower or benefit at the expense of everyone else. AI Rant Off I'm right in the middle trying to decide if I should go more aggressive or less in the market, based on the business friendly administration and likely lower interest rates. I'm currently leaning to stay conservative. Or go into the market hard, ride it, and get out when the shit hits fan....which it will not be too many years (or months) from now. Everything seems to be a manipulation, lie, or prognostications by delusional useful idiots. We are swimming in delusion. We have so many problems, and the President is lining us up for more severe volatility in the future. I think he is flailing around because we may be in beginning of an inflationary spiral. No one wants to buy our bogus Treasury notes because the interest paid is not commensurate with the risk because we have a $37 trillion deficit with NO plan to stop spending let alone pay it off, yet consumers and businesses cannot borrow at a rate that drives economic expansion, but if they lower the interest rates inflation will accelerate, inflation is still too high right now officially 2.7% (unofficially higher, quite a bit higher). Then there is the crazy crypto money plan...I don't believe in that crap, I don't trust the people running that crap, and I don't trust the technology behind that crap. Question: You want me to invest in something that has NO INTRINSIC VALUE just because there is an artificial shortage of bits stored on a hard disk some where? I may have been born at night, but not LAST night. The world is a mess and the US has succeed in pissing off 75% of the planet. Trump recently tried to twist India's arm to stop them from buying Russian oil. What a dumb shit idea, India sent the US packing. And why shouldn't they? Russia has been a much more reliable partner with better policies toward relations with other countries than the West (US). The point is that the rest of the World can only be bullied for so long before they find a way to DITCH the DOLLAR.. Ever heard of BRICS? They have a viable plan, as they watch the US destroy confidence in our debt, but also in our relations, and policies. They are just waiting to supplant the dollar, slowly at first, then... There are so many problems. Only go into the market with your eyes wide open. @ScottsBad Interesting take on AI. I'd be interested to hear why you call it "evil" I have seen it do a few things that appear pretty incredible - I put a very, very basic line drawing (literally like you would put on the back of a napkin in the old days) with dimensions of a part and asked Grok for an engineering analysis of weight bearing capacity. What it spit out seemed quite reasonable, but I'm no engineer so how would I know. Other times it seems like a slightly more advanced search engine in as much as it just trolls web pages and spits back the most common answer found on the web whether it's right or wrong. |
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Originally Posted By ScottsBad: I get your point about tech stocks, I got skinned in the Dot Com bust, lost a million of unrecognized gains. I'm very wary of all the people high on AI... I'm trying to figure out WHO is gonna make money on this flawed technology (I'm a computer scientist). Sure NVIDIA is flying high because they make the most sophisticated chips for this application, but China (Deep Thought) recently proved they could performed 90% of the function that most people would use with lessor chips and for far less cost. If this continues it will sweep the legs out from under the high cost efforts. Also, these AI systems suffer from the same human induced problems as any system - Garbage In Garbage out. Much of the time now these systems are curated. Input and output are controlled or curated to alter inconvenient output. As soon as folks find out that they cannot necessarily trust the output we may see some changes in the expected adoption. I also think that people might begin to see this technology for what it is, and that's straight up evil. I think it will benefit primarily the people we really don't want to empower or benefit at the expense of everyone else. AI Rant Off I'm right in the middle trying to decide if I should go more aggressive or less in the market, based on the business friendly administration and likely lower interest rates. I'm currently leaning to stay conservative. Or go into the market hard, ride it, and get out when the shit hits fan....which it will not be too many years (or months) from now. Everything seems to be a manipulation, lie, or prognostications by delusional useful idiots. We are swimming in delusion. We have so many problems, and the President is lining us up for more severe volatility in the future. I think he is flailing around because we may be in beginning of an inflationary spiral. No one wants to buy our bogus Treasury notes because the interest paid is not commensurate with the risk because we have a $37 trillion deficit with NO plan to stop spending let alone pay it off, yet consumers and businesses cannot borrow at a rate that drives economic expansion, but if they lower the interest rates inflation will accelerate, inflation is still too high right now officially 2.7% (unofficially higher, quite a bit higher). Then there is the crazy crypto money plan...I don't believe in that crap, I don't trust the people running that crap, and I don't trust the technology behind that crap. Question: You want me to invest in something that has NO INTRINSIC VALUE just because there is an artificial shortage of bits stored on a hard disk some where? I may have been born at night, but not LAST night. The world is a mess and the US has succeed in pissing off 75% of the planet. Trump recently tried to twist India's arm to stop them from buying Russian oil. What a dumb shit idea, India sent the US packing. And why shouldn't they? Russia has been a much more reliable partner with better policies toward relations with other countries than the West (US). The point is that the rest of the World can only be bullied for so long before they find a way to DITCH the DOLLAR.. Ever heard of BRICS? They have a viable plan, as they watch the US destroy confidence in our debt, but also in our relations, and policies. They are just waiting to supplant the dollar, slowly at first, then... There are so many problems. Only go into the market with your eyes wide open. I only know a little about AI. I’m not scared of it but am cautious. But, I don’t have enough knowledge about it to agree or disagree. As far as the rest of your post, your TDS is showing. BRICS is a joke. Don’t be scared of it. Remember the BRICS summit in Oct 2024 in Russia where the attendees were told to bring euros and dollars for personal spending….so they could talk about ending world reliance on….euros and dollars? Is everything rainbows and unicorns in the world? Of course not. But, world events could be far worse. And, things are going quite well for the US internationally. Remember….wanting other countries to like us is a waste of time. Every country has their own interests. We are finally seeing American leadership put America first. Of course other countries don’t like it. If they want to deal with us, they will make deals with us. If not, they can suffer. The world needs the US far more than the US needs the rest of the world. As long as we can work with other countries in a way that benefits us (and presumably benefits them if they are dealing with us) carry on. Once it becomes lopsided, it’s time for the other countries to look out for their citizens……and American leaders to look out for Americans. I am going to keep investing in the S&P 500. I believe strongly in America….despite our flaws. During the March/April dip I put more money in. I was hoping the market would stay low for a few months. That money has grown a lot since. If we get a big downturn this year…I’ll put more in. I have plenty of time left for my money to grow before I want to be able to spend it. I can easily weather some market ups and downs. Good news doesn’t sell….bad news does. |
"It behooves every man to remember that the work of the critic is of altogether secondary importance, and that, in the end, progress is accomplished by the man who does things."
Theodore Roosevelt
Theodore Roosevelt
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This is a fascinating thread and exercise. I'd like to put a theory and the OP to the test but a couple of questions first. Are you using a 3-bucket strategy? You say semi-retired, what does that mean to you? Is your portfolio you are living off 6 digits or 7 digits? |
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The real irony with the S&P 500 being considered tech heavy is that if they truly represented the 500 largest companies (by their own criteria) it would include even more tech. I wish there was transparency with S&P Globals decision making on who gets in and who gets booted. The fact that they made no changes in the June rebalance even though lots of companies were eligible and index members Ceasers and Walgreens had negative EPS was shocking. |
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Originally Posted By SkiandShoot: This is a fascinating thread and exercise. I'd like to put a theory and the OP to the test but a couple of questions first. Are you using a 3-bucket strategy? You say semi-retired, what does that mean to you? Is your portfolio you are living off 6 digits or 7 digits? My strategy is not 3 bucket exactly. My strategy is Keep a diversified (taxable) portfolio of mostly dividend paying stocks (currently 75/25ish stocks to bond) and spend no more than the dividend/interest income rolling all cap gains back in _________________ In round numbers my current mix 10% straight market index 35% high div fund paying 2.5% div 17% individual higher dividend stocks 17% short bonds 10% intermediate bonds 4% REIT XX% few random other things, and speculative stocks, the puts I refer to in post 1 are only about .5% |
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Why no allocation to precious metals…5-10%? The biggest risk to the market imo is the reversal of passive flows as you mentioned due to boomer die off. That’s a ways off. Next biggest risk but closer is the bond market telling the fed to eff off when they cut rates and the long end goes up, not down. If the bond market takes a dump it’s game over and the house of cards falls down. Anything liquid will get sold off to cover margin, shorts, etc. Banks will have to be bailed out again and stocks will get hammered. |
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Originally Posted By heat762: Why no allocation to precious metals…5-10%? The biggest risk to the market imo is the reversal of passive flows as you mentioned due to boomer die off. That’s a ways off. Next biggest risk but closer is the bond market telling the fed to eff off when they cut rates and the long end goes up, not down. If the bond market takes a dump it’s game over and the house of cards falls down. Anything liquid will get sold off to cover margin, shorts, etc. Banks will have to be bailed out again and stocks will get hammered. The "other" includes 1% in PMs. My biggest issue there is it's a non-productive asset. I certainly consider it a good insurance policy against total collapse. Obviously I wish I piled in at $1k, but it is what it is. My concern is that boomers aren't going to wait until they die. Once you are retired, and the further along into retirement you get, the more important safety is vs risk. I think if we see a serious sell-off (20% or so) the boomers are going to be more likely to pile on causing a further decline because they will realize they don't have years to watch their portfolio rebuild. It took a minimum of 5 years to recover from dotcom bubble and GFC crashes. The difference is we didn't keep our powder dry. Stimulus was used then, but the world is far more wary of US credit worthiness today than then. We weren't paying $1T in debt service then. |
never underestimate the stupidity of other people
Joined:
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Posts:
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EE: 100% (29)
GA, USA
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I think some of the points are valid but arguably it's the same discussion(s) we've been having since forever. The sky is falling, this time it's different, XXXX is gonna tank the market, etc. Sure there's more tech than other things but in a balanced portfolio that adjusts as things change. I'm sure we have fewer barrel makers in the index now than we did after the first great depression recovery. I'm on a farther timeline to retirement but I'm still ~85% broad index stuff. Time in the market beats timing the market, since for that you have to be right twice. My dad claimed to be a genius investor because he moved mostly out of the market right before the covid crash. Didn't lose anything, but still hasn't put the money back in.... |
"every exercise is a low back exercise if you do it wrong enough"
@MacManus
@MacManus
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Originally Posted By makintrax73: I think if we see a serious sell-off (20% or so) the boomers are going to be more likely to pile on causing a further decline because they will realize they don't have years to watch their portfolio rebuild. Have to respectfully disagree with this based on observations and experiences. This concept is flawed and we will not see a "boomer impact." We live in Palm Beach County and are around 70 year olds -85 year olds, often. The elder boomers now are semi-products of the hard times of the late 1920's as their parents survived through the depression so the boomers. These folks are holding onto nearly every dollar. Between their RMD's, passing wealth to their kids, not wanting to pay taxes, they are NOT running through cash or cashing out from the market. They typically hold on tight until the end. I've watched folks who are literally 80 years old worth $3m complain about $7 parking and complain about the food prices. My response to them is "FLY FIRST CLASS, LIGHT IT ON FIRE, YOU CAN'T TAKE IT WITH YOU!" The folks at this level are also doing everything they can within reason of passing their wealth down tax free, as much as possible. Yes inheritable RMD's are a thing but fortunately it's 10 years and not 1 year. There WILL not be a massive boomer sell off. Same with real estate. The kids inherit the house and then sell at the inflated prices. |
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Here is the query I put in Grok this morning: I would like to know the average return for 10 years following an investment started on the first of every month in which the forward PE ratio of the S&P 500 was 22 or higher Here is what Grok says, whether accurate or not who knows with AI: Thought for 7m 32sThe historical data on S&P 500 forward P/E ratios exceeding 22 is limited, primarily occurring during the dotcom bubble in the late 1990s (around 1999–2000). Based on those instances, the average 10-year annualized total return for investments started in months where the forward P/E was 22 or higher has been approximately 0%. To explain how to arrive at this, the calculation involves identifying the relevant starting periods and compounding the annual total returns over the subsequent 10 years, then annualizing. For example: Starting in 1999 (returns from 1999 to 2008): Cumulative return ≈ -13%, annualized ≈ -1.4%. Starting in 2000 (returns from 2000 to 2009): Cumulative return ≈ -9%, annualized ≈ -0.95%. Averaging these (as proxies for the high P/E months) yields roughly 0%, aligning with the qualitative historical assessment of flat or negative returns in such valuation environments. Note that more recent instances (e.g., 2021, 2024) do not have completed 10-year periods yet, so they are not included. My point is not to suggest everyone run out and short the market. My main point is that multiples are at or near historic highs, and that for such multiples to be rational one must make a case for quite large growth in corporate profits. To further refine that premise I believe that AI conceptually provides a catalyst that could make US corporations much more profitable, but such would require a few things to be true: 1) Massive increase in energy consumption to power data centers, and in the physical realm to power robotics (which will obviously require a viable source for that energy) and 2) That this massive increase in reliance on machines doesn't disrupt the labor economy in ways which destabilize either the economy or the polity of the country. In other words my thesis is that we are in a high risk environment, not a low risk environment. |
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Originally Posted By makintrax73: My concern is that boomers aren't going to wait until they die. Originally Posted By makintrax73: My concern is that boomers aren't going to wait until they die. Originally Posted By makintrax73: .... average return for 10 years ....... forward PE ratio of the S&P 500 was 22 or higher My main point is that multiples are at or near historic highs, and that for such multiples to be rational one must make a case for quite large growth in corporate profits. A lot of doomer investing media has been touting the "boomers are going to sell and crash the market" and it's a bunch of malarkey. Precious few people will hand over their life savings before they die. The annual returns vs PE ratio is a great guide.... for the short term. As the time period gets longer the market returns converge towards the long-term average. So yes, if you're retiring within a few years think twice about dumping all your retirement into PLTR or even tech in general. Young people should continue to DCA into the market and plan based on historical average market returns. If you're 60 and want to know where to invest your mattress full of cash then you planned to fail by failing to plan. Nobody will fault you for biasing towards more conservative investments right now, doubly so if you're retiring within a few years. This only goes 10 years out. If it went 20-30-40 years out you would see the annualized returns continue to converge towards the historic average no matter the initial PE ratio. Attached File |
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Originally Posted By @makintrax73: In other words my thesis is that we are in a high risk environment, not a low risk environment. I’m not a big fan of theory and folks making predictions without skin in the game but more so on action. How about we put your theory to the test. You invest $5,000 in GLD or a money market account or a similar bond today/end of the week? I’ll buy ~142 shares of VITAX in the same time period. Both post screenshot of the transactions. Then we’ll do a growth/loss percent check-in at the 3 month mark 6 month mark 12 month mark. Are you up for it? |
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Originally Posted By SkiandShoot: I’m not a big fan of theory and folks making predictions without skin in the game but more so on action. How about we put your theory to the test. You invest $5,000 in GLD or a money market account or a similar bond today/end of the week? I’ll buy ~142 shares of VITAX in the same time period. Both post screenshot of the transactions. Then we’ll do a growth/loss percent check-in at the 3 month mark 6 month mark 12 month mark. Are you up for it? This sounds like fun!! |
"It behooves every man to remember that the work of the critic is of altogether secondary importance, and that, in the end, progress is accomplished by the man who does things."
Theodore Roosevelt
Theodore Roosevelt
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Originally Posted By SkiandShoot: I’m not a big fan of theory and folks making predictions without skin in the game but more so on action. How about we put your theory to the test. You invest $5,000 in GLD or a money market account or a similar bond today/end of the week? I’ll buy ~142 shares of VITAX in the same time period. Both post screenshot of the transactions. Then we’ll do a growth/loss percent check-in at the 3 month mark 6 month mark 12 month mark. Are you up for it? On 7/7 I bought some GDX just to keep an eye on it. As of today it's up 23.1%. Jus say'n... I had closed out most of my S&P and NASDAQ ETFs in August since I'm expecting a correction this month, and I intended to get back in at the beginning of Q4. But I think for now I'll just move that money into GDX until EOY. For the record I've been extremely aggressive over the last few years, but I agree with the assessment that we're entering a high risk environment, and I plan to de-risk going into 26 to see how the interest rate cuts/economy shakes out. |
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Originally Posted By SkiandShoot: Player 3 has entered the arena? I’m all for some mortal financial combat. But I’ll be a spectator to the arena! I think the idea is fascinating though. You believe XYZ? Great. How strongly do you believe it? Now back it up |
"It behooves every man to remember that the work of the critic is of altogether secondary importance, and that, in the end, progress is accomplished by the man who does things."
Theodore Roosevelt
Theodore Roosevelt
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Originally Posted By ScottsBad: but China (Deep Thought) recently proved they could performed 90% of the function that most people would use with lessor chips and for far less cost. This right there shows that you do not really understand the tech, how it works, and how China faked the results. AI is AI and it IS useful. It will help drive growth exponentially. Yes, there is heavy competition in the space today, and yes, most of these companies will not make it. Thats just the nature of the market, not a factor of AI itself. That said, EVERYONE will benefit in the long term and I would not bet against the US or the US market. All this considered, next year is a mid term year. I think we bonce along + or - 5% for the next six months where we will see a significant profit taking prior to the mid terms. If the repubs win, I see another +10% upside. If they lose, we will be in gridlock for the next two years and I see a possible correction. |
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Originally Posted By SkiandShoot: Player 3 has entered the arena? Unfortunately I will be no fun because I have no conviction on the trade. I did buy some today, more than $5K, and if it's down tomorrow with the jobs report, I'll add further to my position. And when they cut rates, I expect it will drop a little then so I'll probably add more. But my stops are in, and I won't hesitate to drop it. I'll be happy to update progress though. Honestly I'm expecting both the market and gold to be up by the EOY, but after that all bets are off... |
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The market is overvalued... in dollars. https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe Shiller PE at 38+ is approaching January 2000 levels. Of course, 1999 was a great year, and I exited the market in January 2000, came back in 2003. However, the market is fairly valued in terms of gold https://www.macrotrends.net/1437/sp500-to-gold-ratio-chart What's different from 1999/2000 and now? US Gov debt interest payments. Coming inflation, if you assume they're going to "inflate the debt away." The correlation between current AI boom and 1999 dotcom 2000 dotgone seems appropriate... but what if the problem is the denominator in all the measurements, the US Dollar? Some of the talking heads say "everything bubble" but if the future value of the USD is going to get smashed by interest payments on the debt, you need an actual value measurement as denominator. SP500 vs Gold is fair value... or there's a gold bubble too. BTC. Both? Are we in an "everything bubble" headed for reversion to the mean? Or is the USD going to lose so much value that we have a paradigm shift to another asset? What are Central Banks around the globe buying? Gold & BTC... transactions still occur in USD but then those dollars are converted to assets expected to retain value... the USD is not expected to retain value. If we have another round of 30% inflation and the market goes up 30% the value is unchanged and all you've done is maintain buying power. |
Life is a blind stage on a hot range
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Player 4 did a drive by. Guess the case is closed or folks post without conviction. Pretty fun exercise. Even on this forum there is lots of noise, bad theories, hot air and everyone is posting is a millionaire! We’ve always got to be mindful of what we are reading context, time horizon, objectives and perspectives. Now there are 10%-30% of folks who post solid advice, great analysis, good predictions and are actually insightful. |
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Originally Posted By SkiandShoot: Player 4 did a drive by. Guess the case is closed or folks post without conviction. Pretty fun exercise. Even on this forum there is lots of noise, bad theories, hot air and everyone is posting is a millionaire! We’ve always got to be mindful of what we are reading context, time horizon, objectives and perspectives. Now there are 10%-30% of folks who post solid advice, great analysis, good predictions and are actually insightful. Did you buy VITAX yesterday? |
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Originally Posted By batoncolle: Did you buy VITAX yesterday? Had no takers as the plan was to execute the same day someone was willing to step up.  I've got several tranches ready to deploy but just can't make a decision where to go so the plan was to use this as a lever for inspiration. Especially when I was buying VITAX back in April-May-June. |
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Originally Posted By SkiandShoot: Had no takers as the plan was to execute the same day someone was willing to step up. I've got several tranches ready to deploy but just can't make a decision where to go so the plan was to use this as a lever for inspiration. Especially when I was buying VITAX back in April-May-June. My GDX purchase from yesterday is already up 2.1%. My original purchase is up 24.19%.  I'll be happy to post the % when I sell it, but there is no set timeframe. Right now it's just a small % of the portfolio, but who knows where this hedge may end up. We'll just have to see where the market takes us... |
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Originally Posted By SkiandShoot: Player 4 did a drive by. Guess the case is closed or folks post without conviction. Pretty fun exercise. Even on this forum there is lots of noise, bad theories, hot air and everyone is posting is a millionaire! We’ve always got to be mindful of what we are reading context, time horizon, objectives and perspectives. Now there are 10%-30% of folks who post solid advice, great analysis, good predictions and are actually insightful. Originally Posted By SkiandShoot: Player 4 did a drive by. Guess the case is closed or folks post without conviction. Pretty fun exercise. Even on this forum there is lots of noise, bad theories, hot air and everyone is posting is a millionaire! We’ve always got to be mindful of what we are reading context, time horizon, objectives and perspectives. Now there are 10%-30% of folks who post solid advice, great analysis, good predictions and are actually insightful. I posted a hypothesis with a request for counter points to clarify my thoughts. It was not advice. You wanted to turn it into a dick measuring contest and/or data mining. Not interested. Originally Posted By CPTmorgan: The market is overvalued... in dollars. https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe Shiller PE at 38+ is approaching January 2000 levels. Of course, 1999 was a great year, and I exited the market in January 2000, came back in 2003. However, the market is fairly valued in terms of gold https://www.macrotrends.net/1437/sp500-to-gold-ratio-chart What's different from 1999/2000 and now? US Gov debt interest payments. Coming inflation, if you assume they're going to "inflate the debt away." The correlation between current AI boom and 1999 dotcom 2000 dotgone seems appropriate... but what if the problem is the denominator in all the measurements, the US Dollar? Some of the talking heads say "everything bubble" but if the future value of the USD is going to get smashed by interest payments on the debt, you need an actual value measurement as denominator. SP500 vs Gold is fair value... or there's a gold bubble too. BTC. Both? Are we in an "everything bubble" headed for reversion to the mean? Or is the USD going to lose so much value that we have a paradigm shift to another asset? What are Central Banks around the globe buying? Gold & BTC... transactions still occur in USD but then those dollars are converted to assets expected to retain value... the USD is not expected to retain value. If we have another round of 30% inflation and the market goes up 30% the value is unchanged and all you've done is maintain buying power. Interesting reasoning. Never thought about considering gold to S&P ratio despite the fact that I have thought about gold to real estate, etc. Inflation is certainly an incredible risk for anyone owning credit assets. |
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Originally Posted By makintrax73: In other words my thesis is that we are in a high risk environment, not a low risk environment. Originally Posted By SkiandShoot: I’m not a big fan of theory and folks making predictions without skin in the game but more so on action. Originally Posted By makintrax73: I posted a hypothesis with a request for counter points to clarify my thoughts. It was not advice. You wanted to turn it into a dick measuring contest and/or data mining. Not interested. You got counterpoints but completely ignored those posts. The assumption is that you ignored them because they didn't provide the confirmation bias you are seeking. A lot of people post a lot of stuff on the internet. When it comes to money and investing it's easy to say things and a whole different ball game to actually do it. |
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Interest Rate cuts are coming. The national debt needs to be refinanced, so the money printer will go brrrrrrr. Everything will go up. History will repeat or rhyme, so I am expecting another Great Depression that will start sometime around 2029 through 2031. Accountant |
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Originally Posted By Morgan321: Your assumption that anybody cares about your dick size or wants to mine your data is telling. You got counterpoints but completely ignored those posts. The assumption is that you ignored them because they didn't provide the confirmation bias you are seeking. A lot of people post a lot of stuff on the internet. When it comes to money and investing it's easy to say things and a whole different ball game to actually do it. Your post about PE and returns was helpful. Sorry I didn't post a response. |
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Originally Posted By Accountant30339: Interest Rate cuts are coming. The national debt needs to be refinanced, so the money printer will go brrrrrrr. Everything will go up. History will repeat or rhyme, so I am expecting another Great Depression that will start sometime around 2029 through 2031. Accountant Can you please elaborate some more about the facts that has led you to your conclusion? Thanks |
"It behooves every man to remember that the work of the critic is of altogether secondary importance, and that, in the end, progress is accomplished by the man who does things."
Theodore Roosevelt
Theodore Roosevelt
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Originally Posted By @batoncolle: I did buy some today, more than $5K, and if it's down tomorrow with the jobs report, I'll add further to my position. And when they cut rates, I expect it will drop a little then so I'll probably add more. But my stops are in, and I won't hesitate to drop it. I'll be happy to update progress though. Honestly I'm expecting both the market and gold to be up by the EOY, but after that all bets are off... Mistakes cost money as I missed your post as I didn't connect that you pulled the trigger and I didn't!! VITAX ended up yesterday. VFIAX is more SnP500 but ViTAX is geared more towards the DOOM n GLOOM going around right now. This is going to be fun. See what percent gain, loss or other in the 3 milestones. I don't plan on selling this purchase until 2029-2031! It's not about measuring anything it's about playing the game. Us Gen-Xers aren't fragile like the boomers. Attached File |
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Originally Posted By steviesterno16: I think some of the points are valid but arguably it's the same discussion(s) we've been having since forever. The sky is falling, this time it's different, XXXX is gonna tank the market, etc. Sure there's more tech than other things but in a balanced portfolio that adjusts as things change. I'm sure we have fewer barrel makers in the index now than we did after the first great depression recovery. I'm on a farther timeline to retirement but I'm still ~85% broad index stuff. Time in the market beats timing the market, since for that you have to be right twice. My dad claimed to be a genius investor because he moved mostly out of the market right before the covid crash. Didn't lose anything, but still hasn't put the money back in.... This entire thread has been done 1000 times, and it is always fueled by market timers suffering from Dunning Kruger. If the entire premise of the discussion is “is this a high risk time of investment in equities” and we use different criteria such as the Schiller P/E ratio or the SNP 500 P/E ratio, history tells us that yes this is a higher risk period. Somebody who is already retired, looks at the market from a completely different lens than a younger long-term investor. Adjust your asset allocations accordingly. The reality is that you can’t time the market any better than anyone else can, and you run the risk of missing out on the euphoric boom that helps smooth out the crash that is also inevitable. |
Moderate-Length Barrel Evangelist
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EE: 100% (11)
USA
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To the dude that bought GDX…Ski n Shoot said GLD. Not exactly the same. Unless I’ve misunderstood. I’ve also been making money lately off GDX, though. I consider it a hedge against SP500 that happens to mostly “go up” rather than something I should compare competitively to SP500. OP, if you’re trying to reduce tech exposure in the portion of your portfolio currently being used for SP500, have you looked at SPHQ? Its historic performance is similar to VOO/SPY, but with significantly less tech sector holdings. No idea if it will continue that performance, but perhaps it will continue to outpace bonds or other hedges against SP? |