Somebody gon be pissed.

??Fire after the \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6Ukrainian-made P-360 "Neptune" anti-ship cruise missile hit the \uD83C\uDDF7\uD83C\uDDFARussian ferry "Conro Trader" in the port of "Kavkaz" in the Kerch Strait.

- About 30 fuel tanks are burning.

- This was the only large ferry operating on the Kerch-Russia route. pic.twitter.com/N5Eo92LX6S

— Cloooud |\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 (@GloOouD) August 22, 2024

Ukraine is invading the invaders.  

What is Russia going to do?   Nuke themselves?  

Putin is a little bitch.

Attached File

Exactly I believe they would use them at that point but I don't think this attack on Russia will go that far but we'll see.

Unless maybe none of theirs workbreliably.

This is fun:

NASA's FIRMS fire monitoring systems shows multiple fires at Russia's Marinovka Air Base in Volgograd Oblast after a successful Ukrainian drone attack earlier tonight.

Explosions, smoke and flames were seen rising from the airfield. pic.twitter.com/J9TaJWwLgv

OSINTtechnical  (@Osinttechnical) August 22, 2024

\uD83C\uDDF7\uD83C\uDDFAMarinovka Air Base\uD83C\uDDF7\uD83C\uDDFA
Here is a 'before' image from 19 August 2024

Loads of airframes on the flightline
14x Su-24
15x Su-34 (I think, @MilAviaUA confirm?)

What I find more interesting are the 8x semi trucks (~18m in length)

What are they carrying? Ammo resupply? Shaheds? https://t.co/Goltc2h2hK pic.twitter.com/1J8yY2XyuG

— MT Anderson (@MT_Anderson) August 22, 2024

/7. First footages from the ground, of the damage after todays drone attack on Russian Marinovka airbase pic.twitter.com/jCcZOJUpnK

— Special Kherson Cat \uD83D\uDC08\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 (@bayraktar_1love) August 22, 2024

This is about 200 miles inside Russia.

Could Ukraine now cut south west from Kursk and cut off the invasion forces in Kharkiv?

I will say that it's hard to look at Ukraine's advancement into Kursk and not be reminded of the many successful pincer movements carried out by both the Russians and the Germans in WWII. The kind that would encircle Ukrainian forces inside Kursk.

But then I have to remind myself that the 2024 Russian military is not the same as the 1943 Soviet Red Army in terms of strength, combat effectiveness, and leadership. And when I remind myself of that it's easy to see why they can't pull it off. At least not easily.

Babe, wake up, a new Wojak just dropped:

The threat of being cut-off and obliterated works both ways. It really depends on perspective and momentum/support.

1943 leading up to Battle of Kursk:

Germans in Blue-ish and Russia in Red

One of my International Relations professors had worked with Scoop Jackson, etc., on arms negotiations, both politically in the US and as part of the background of negotiations internationally.  He was always of the opinion that a nuke is just another explosion.  If it's the right device for the time and place, they should be used.  Needless to say, his tenured position was very annoying to most of the rest of the faculty.  But that may be a reasonable tactical approach, politically the world doesn't seem to see it that way.  And I think, talking points, plans, statements aside, Putin and at least some of the Russian leadership also know that a nuke would be a game changer in many ways.  It's not to stop hundreds or thousands of tanks, etc., storming into or out of Eastern Europe and Western Europe in a narrow mountain valley.  It's not mid-ocean to protect or destroy a naval force or convoy of merchant ships.

So, where does he use it?  A massive tank column descending (ascending?) on Moscow?  Does he turn some part of Russia into "Glowink memorial of sacrifice for the Motherland?" I don't think that kind of Ukrainian attack is likely or possible.  Or that a conventional air response isn't possible.  Maybe Kyiv?  He's skating with current conventional attacks on civilian targets.  Sanctions and blockades would turn real and China and Korea will get intense scrutiny and tightened sanctions, too.  Kersch is gone, maybe Sebastopol.  Tactical exclusion and destruction of some areas but that doesn't change the current Russian supply, population and military shortfalls.   Use it on a neighboring country?  Not a chance.  Radiate via fallout other countries?  Consequences would still be dire.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-new-recruits-pokrovsk-ed2d06ad529e3b7e47ecd32f79911b83

Someone had a very bad day.

Probably the logistical hub supporting the offensive. Sumy

The Lviv area would be a choice nuke target as it's where much of the Western stuff comes into Ukraine and is staged, but it's damn close to Poland.  Then again, if he can hit Lviv and NATO doesn't respond, it's game over for Ukraine.

Nuking Lviv is akin to nuking St Petersburg.

They got lots of videos to back up their claims.


Ukraine lost dirt today in the Donbass.

LOL. Straight up Russian propaganda.

Again, a message with a strongly-worded warning. Meaning all bank and no bite.

https://t.me/otsuka_bld/22628

"We are ready for any developments.. I hope I will be heard."

Not really. Prigozhin showed that it was possible given he met minimal resistance.  The local populace is tired of Putin. There are some fanatics, to be sure but they don't amount to anything.  

They do need to substantially increase their numbers for such a march, presumably recruiting from the locals. The Legion of Free Russia has 10K right now, which is not enough either, but there are other Legions.

This is very questonable.

Maby of them on ARF who loves Putin; and victim blames Ukraine.

I hear it's up to 1250 sq km not that's been liberated.

The most significant effect in the grand scheme this seems to be having is political.  

Makes pooty look like an ass clown to his own people.

Militarily I don't see an end game here, unless they are able to surge more forces in to the region to continue the expansion. At which point a flanking move avoiding built up defenses in the donbas seems like a logical move.   Certainly heading toward Moscow would have dramatic results.

War is just a means of politics....

https://www.reuters.com/world/china-belarus-agree-strengthen-cooperation-trade-security-2024-08-23/

Ok. What are we seeing?  What's the purpose of the Kursk offensive. Primarily a tactical goal or a strategic goal?

Good question.  The major bridges in Kursk were destroyed, severing resupply lines.  By occupying Russian soil they can seed dissent by making the war more visible to the Russian people.

My guess is it was an incursion because it was easy, and had potential to draw away front line troops and relieve the strain on the other more strained areas.  That wasn't actually a bad idea.  Combined with a little Doolittle raid moral boost.  But Russia didn't bite, to everyone's surprise.   So now, it's a Case of reassessment and seeing what opportunities can be taken advantage of.  What it appears, is exactly what I would do, is using it as a deep extension base for infrastructure and strategic zone strikes.  Which is exactly what I'd be doing now.  I'd be utilizing it to hamper Russia's ability to project and sustain projected force, both directly and indirectly.  And I'd plan further expansions to that goal.  

As to that random dudes post above with glee, posting high questionable Ukrainian loss statistics with claims of readily available proof without actually posting any of that proof...  that was weird.  I have doubt.

The scale of conflict back then was vastly different. Those arrows represent many thousands of troops moving forward in an army group of hundreds of thousands. Today, each side is fielding a few hundred thousand over a total line of over 1200KM. Nobody has capacity for movements like that, and large troop concentrations tend to get schwacked by big missiles going both directions.

I believe Putin has been told that nuclear fallout hitting NATO nations would trigger NATO involvement. Biden's people have said that would be considered an attack on NATO. That's a red line Putin won't cross.

Russia has burned through her III%ers.

Russia is eleven time zones large for only 143 million people.  From Miami to Honolulu is six; the last thing Russia needed was more territory.

The march to Moscow from Wagner, wasn't against Putin, it was against Shoigu and Gerasimov who've in Prigozhin's eyes have ran a distaster of an "SMO".

Ooof! Poor training, where have I heard that before? I wonder how their penal battalions are doing?

The area Ukraine attacked was manned primarily by border guards and young drafted conscripts.

These aren't minority groups from Russia's nether regions, these are young men from Moscow and St. Petersburg.

Up until now, if a contract soldier was killed from Siberia, no big outcry.

Now, when the son's of Russia's somewhat affluent start getting "zinced", the outcry will become much louder and more difficult for Putin to counter.

Not sure what's sadder, that you believe it or that you think it's a good thing.

It's been posted in earlier pages that Ukraine moved troops from other fronts in the south east to go into the north. They'd have to relocate more troops from those southern fronts and that could probably lead to another Avdiivka opening. It was pointed out earlier that Ukraine could have sent these troops to reinforce the green troops (as carmel's linked article mentioned) in the Avdiivka front, but they didn't.

That's the strange dichotomy about Putin here.  The Ukebois think Putin is the devil incarnate, crazy, and will BBQ kittens for fun.  But, he would never drop a nuke in Russia to stop a Ukranian  advance and save his position.  That he's evil, but he is just not that evil.

Of course, there is no really good plan B if Putin does that.  Dangerous times.

Recapture the initiative.

No, you have it wrong. Evil? Yes. Stupid...sorta, but not completely. I fully believe that if he thought there would be no consequences he would have already been dropping tactical nukes. But he knows there would be, so he doesn't.

It seems like that depends on the narrative of the day.  

It's to capture the nuclear power plants.
It's to embarrass Putin.
It's to create a buffer zone.
It's to fluff western public opinion into believing that Ukraine can still win, and by logical connection should receive another huge tranche of western weapons and financial aid.

There seems to be a running notion that the "critical Putin embarrassment threshold" is near.  In this theory, Putin will be overthrown by the Russian population once this threshold is reached because the people have deemed him an incompetent or ineffective leader.  What's missing from these hypothetical scenarios is, "What leader will the Russians install in Putin's place?".

Just my opinion:
From everything I've read, many Russians seek escalation as a means of accelerating the end of the conflict.  So if Putin is on the outs, it's probably because he's not being aggressive enough or he's been assassinated.   What then?  Who replaces Putin?  Medvedev?  Some other hardliner with less restraint than Putin?  If that's the case then Russia will likely double down, not capitulate.  Part of me thinks that's really the goal here.  To get Russia in a position where she spastically reacts to the Kursk situation and uses tactical nuclear weapons.  If that occurs then Russia becomes the global pariah on a scale that makes the current perception appear minor.  Also at that point, NATO countries could also perhaps justifiably intervene directly.

It seems dubious to me to rely on this "embarrassment threshold mechanic".  It assumes too many things.  It assumes that the Russian public cares about western media reports and headlines.  It also relies on the idea that the Russian mainstream will blame Putin personally for the security failures that resulted in Kursk being invaded, and not the Ukranians and NATO who are the foreigners on their soil.  Honestly it presupposes that Russian public opinion operates in the same way as it does in the west.  Again, I think that's a stretch.   Because if one runs a reversed scenario in their heads, does the US sack its President if that POTUS doesn't jump fast enough to negotiate with an invading army?  I don't think so.  So the whole narrative is built on flimsy logic.

Guessing the goals of the Kursk invasion will continue to be reworked in the media until they find a story that focus group tests the best, and that will then be repeated endlessly with a few slogans in the western press and by the Biden admin mouthpieces.  It will probably also contain elements designed to pressure an incoming possible Trump administration into continuing current foreign policy.  But at its core, this adventure is a giant roll of the dice by Ukraine and NATO.  Does it end up paying off?  Maybe, but I doubt it.  

Worse consequence than being removed as President of Russia and being thrown in prison or killed?

What would those be?

to what near to middle term end?

Yes of course forces on the offensive by definition have the initiative, which is a good and useful thing.  What is the objective of seizing the initiative?

Let me give some examples of what I mean.
Is it to as you say put Russia on the horns of a dilemma for the purposes of dividing Russian forces between the current active front and thereby weakening the active front in the donbass, allowing a UA offensive there regaining territory (tactical)

is it to break the support of the Russian people for Putin and cause such internal strife that it hastens the end of the war and provides increased leverage for Ukraine at any future negotiations?  (strategic)

Is is a full drive to Moscow or a diversionary thing that Russia will feel compelled to respond to?  Are they?

Or is it fuck it, YOLO, lets see what opportunities this creates?


My interpretation is that it's biggest impact is political on Putin, Moscow is the really the only area of Russia that Moscow cares about and it's not in danger (yet) so while it's embarrassing that doesn't matter to dictators until it reaches a tipping point, strong men tend to be durable but brittle. They don't bend they break all at once.  

Without lots of resources the Kursk offensive has a geogrpahic limit. You can only stretch lines of communication so thin.  So regardless of major Russian moves this can only go so far.  Does Ukraine have that level of resources?  It would be amazing if they do, historic.

Just think of all the high-value infrastructure that is now within reach of drones brought up into the occupied areas.  And the reallocation of defenses from other places to those targets.


Of course Pooty does not care about the peasants, but keeping the lights on in Moscow might be important.

Yeah, Russian soil was either a trip wire or it wasn't.  I'd say the next logical potential trip wire has to be Moscow proper.  So short of that, I don't think Putin really cares about all the towns in between.