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Posted: 9/6/2024 8:19:38 PM EST
[#1]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By OldFalGuy: I MAY have my history wrong, as I did not check it, but isn't this the area the Germans created a bulge and the Russians took both flanks and encircled the entire 6th Corp/Army and the Germans could not resupply them int he winter which is coming??? Think this little excursion is a big mistake unless corrected. |
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Posted: 9/6/2024 8:28:00 PM EST
[Last Edit: Kihn]
[#2]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By OldFalGuy: I MAY have my history wrong, as I did not check it, but isn’t this the area the Germans created a bulge and the Russians took both flanks and encircled the entire 6th Corp/Army and the Germans could not resupply them int he winter which is coming??? Think this little excursion is a big mistake unless corrected. That's Stalingrad wasn't it? Looks like the reconstituted 6th Army was in both Kursk and Ukraine after Stalingrad. They seem to have held their own in Ukraine before retreating... |
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Posted: 9/6/2024 8:38:43 PM EST
[#3]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Zhukov: The way I see it: Ukraine was always going to lose the war so they had no real big reason to just up and quit. Their best shot was always going to make Putin's victory so costly that he abandons his plans. I don't think that's changed. Don't neglect the serious problems Russia is stuck with IF they completely conquer Ukraine: It's a huge country, Russia will be responsible for rebuilding what they broke, and they need to provide an occupying force. |
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Posted: 9/6/2024 9:08:43 PM EST
[Last Edit: Cincinnatus]
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By FreefallRet: And that will be one hell of an insurgency, especially a US backed insurgency. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By FreefallRet: Originally Posted By Zhukov: The way I see it: Ukraine was always going to lose the war so they had no real big reason to just up and quit. Their best shot was always going to make Putin's victory so costly that he abandons his plans. I don't think that's changed. Don't neglect the serious problems Russia is stuck with IF they completely conquer Ukraine: It's a huge country, Russia will be responsible for rebuilding what they broke, and they need to provide an occupying force. That's correct. The proverbial “Tar Baby.” |
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Posted: 9/6/2024 9:39:50 PM EST
[Last Edit: Missilegeek]
[#5]
Quote HistoryWell so far there have only been a few "good ideas" that it seems the US and West have attempted to force down Ukraine's throat: 1. Run away and fight as a government in exile (Spring 22 when Russia was knocking on Kiev) 2. Don't negotiate (later in 2022- early 2023 when Ukraine had the upper hand) 3. Attack the absolute teeth of a very well engineered defense with fire superiority and strong ADA. (2023 failed offensive) And now we've got "Don't attack them too hard or too well on their own soil, that won't work" If I didn't know better, our strategy should be called "supply them and force them to lose a protracted war." But that is giving the absolute clowns in charge too much credit. This isn't deliberate, it's incompetence, like the entirety of the rest of our foreign policy and strategic military disposition. Instead the appropriate name for our strategy is "cluelessly react to the latest news and or Ukraine request." 
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Posted: 9/6/2024 9:49:22 PM EST
[#6]
There are no “good ideas” available for either side.
That’s how war ALWAYS works. This one, more so than ever. |
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Posted: 9/6/2024 9:53:41 PM EST
[#7]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Cincinnatus: There are no “good ideas” available for either side. That’s how war ALWAYS works. This one, more so than ever. We are watching an administration slowly bumble a strategic win win situation for the US, into a loss. It is impressively incompetent. Even for Democrats. |
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Posted: 9/7/2024 2:31:25 AM EST
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Missilegeek: Well so far there have only been a few "good ideas" that it seems the US and West have attempted to force down Ukraine's throat: 1. Run away and fight as a government in exile (Spring 22 when Russia was knocking on Kiev) 2. Don't negotiate (later in 2022- early 2023 when Ukraine had the upper hand) 3. Attack the absolute teeth of a very well engineered defense with fire superiority and strong ADA. (2023 failed offensive) And now we've got "Don't attack them too hard or too well on their own soil, that won't work" If I didn't know better, our strategy should be called "supply them and force them to lose a protracted war." But that is giving the absolute clowns in charge too much credit. This isn't deliberate, it's incompetence, like the entirety of the rest of our foreign policy and strategic military disposition. Instead the appropriate name for our strategy is "cluelessly react to the latest news and or Ukraine request." We haven't had a coherent national strategy, if one at all, globally or with respect to particular regions, since the Bush Administration, I would say. |
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Posted: 9/7/2024 6:18:27 AM EST
[#9]
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Posted: 9/7/2024 6:19:10 AM EST
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Missilegeek: We are watching an administration slowly bumble a strategic win win situation for the US, into a loss. It is impressively incompetent. Even for Democrats. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Missilegeek: Originally Posted By Cincinnatus: There are no “good ideas” available for either side. That’s how war ALWAYS works. This one, more so than ever. We are watching an administration slowly bumble a strategic win win situation for the US, into a loss. It is impressively incompetent. Even for Democrats. Describe this “strategic win for the US,” that we had within our grasp. Do we still have it? |
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Posted: 9/7/2024 6:32:43 AM EST
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Cincinnatus: Describe this “strategic win for the US,” that we had within our grasp. Do we still have it? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Cincinnatus: Originally Posted By Missilegeek: Originally Posted By Cincinnatus: There are no “good ideas” available for either side. That’s how war ALWAYS works. This one, more so than ever. We are watching an administration slowly bumble a strategic win win situation for the US, into a loss. It is impressively incompetent. Even for Democrats. Describe this “strategic win for the US,” that we had within our grasp. Do we still have it? Significant degradation of Russian diplomatic and military power at very little cost to our own, would be a strategic win. That was the situation handed to us in 2022. It's getting very difficult to continue to believe that Russian diplomatic and military power continues to decrease, or that our cost is small. |
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Posted: 9/7/2024 1:20:50 PM EST
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Missilegeek: We are watching an administration slowly bumble a strategic win win situation for the US, into a loss. It is impressively incompetent. Even for Democrats. Not incompetent at all, at their annual review China gave a 10% bonus 
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Posted: 9/7/2024 1:32:22 PM EST
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Missilegeek: Significant degradation of Russian diplomatic and military power at very little cost to our own, would be a strategic win. That was the situation handed to us in 2022. It's getting very difficult to continue to believe that Russian diplomatic and military power continues to decrease, or that our cost is small. Ah yes, the old 2022 "destroying Russia for pennies on the dollar" talking point. Yeah that ship sailed quite some time ago. |
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Posted: 9/7/2024 1:45:38 PM EST
[#14]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: Ah yes, the old 2022 "destroying Russia for pennies on the dollar" talking point. Yeah that ship sailed quite some time ago. Do people still think we’ve only spent what the two Ukraine bills allocated for the war? Or do they not understand the 100’s of billions of additional money we’ve spent on it? Just one example of that would be reallocating funds from the army’s readiness budget to EUCOM to fund their operations in support of the war. |
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Posted: 9/7/2024 2:04:16 PM EST
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: Ah yes, the old 2022 "destroying Russia for pennies on the dollar" talking point. Yeah that ship sailed quite some time ago. 
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Posted: 9/7/2024 2:15:43 PM EST
[#16]
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Posted: 9/7/2024 4:08:39 PM EST
[#17]
Quote HistoryThose numbers sound impressive, until you look at the inset map, and see that appears a pretty insignificant chunk of real estate in terms of scale. Looks like they are going to have to do a lot more than that to move the needle. |
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Posted: 9/7/2024 4:45:03 PM EST
[Last Edit: CarmelBytheSea]
[#18]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Missilegeek: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682 Those numbers sound impressive, until you look at the inset map, and see that appears a pretty insignificant chunk of real estate in terms of scale. Looks like they are going to have to do a lot more than that to move the needle. They have 7 weeks at most to make the most of their operation but if things go south and if Russia seizes Pokrovsk and is able to go significantly beyond that could put Zelensky’s declared plans in jeopardy. Whatever happens even in a worst case scenario I expect Ukraine will continue to adapt, frustrate Russia’s goals and the irony is the further Moscow makes gains the more it incurs more problems requiring additional resources to address. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-troops-take-novohrodivka-ukraines-donetsk-region-ria-reports-2024-09-08/  
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FL, USA
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Posted: 9/7/2024 4:55:54 PM EST
[#19]
Mostly everyone in the world thought that Ukraine would fall in two weeks or less against the mighty Russian Bear.
Now they in their third year and have inflicted significant casualties on the Russians. Now they are even invading Russia territory. Who would have thought that they could wound the Bear so much? |
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Posted: 9/7/2024 4:56:14 PM EST
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Missilegeek: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682 Those numbers sound impressive, until you look at the inset map, and see that appears a pretty insignificant chunk of real estate in terms of scale. Looks like they are going to have to do a lot more than that to move the needle. They need that land when it comes to a "negotiated" settlement Until then, move the launchers closer to important economic stuff and burn it all down  
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Posted: 9/7/2024 10:05:28 PM EST
[#21]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: Ah yes, the old 2022 "destroying Russia for pennies on the dollar" talking point. Yeah that ship sailed quite some time ago. How much money did we spend on the cold war to check Soviet aggression? |
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Posted: 9/7/2024 11:03:44 PM EST
[#22]
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Posted: 9/7/2024 11:19:31 PM EST
[#23]
Very long read of Ukraine point of view on success of Kursk operation in achieving its goals in the war
https://www.ukrinform.net/amp/rubric-ato/3903306-kursk-incursion-has-forced-moscow-to-change-its-svo-objectives.html |
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Posted: 9/7/2024 11:29:56 PM EST
[#24]
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USA
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Posted: 9/7/2024 11:37:47 PM EST
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Zhukov: How much money did we spend on the cold war to check Soviet aggression? How much of that was based on horribly inaccurate assessments? If anything this conflict has exposed how much the US has gotten ripped off over the decades if a shit tier country with a few PGMs and NATO garage sale cast offs can stop Russia cold for years. |
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Posted: 9/7/2024 11:49:40 PM EST
[#26]
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Posted: 9/8/2024 12:12:37 AM EST
[Last Edit: CarmelBytheSea]
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By PeepEater: How much of that was based on horribly inaccurate assessments? If anything this conflict has exposed how much the US has gotten ripped off over the decades if a shit tier country with a few PGMs and NATO garage sale cast offs can stop Russia cold for years. I unlike 99% of GD wouldn’t overestimate NATO. Ukraine’s military was among the largest in Europe in 2022 and Ukraine is a huge country compared to much of Europe, especially compared to Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania. Paired with NATO support and Russian incompetence, especially the first year, that’s what’s resulted in the status of September 2024. If you take out the USA, oversimplifying, what European NATO has over Russia is air dominance, certainly not ground force size Most of the European NATO members are not formidable in their own right - Belgium, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Albania, Canada, Luxembourg, Montenegro, Macedonia, Portugal, etc.        
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Posted: 9/8/2024 12:25:49 AM EST
[Last Edit: Missilegeek]
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CarmelBytheSea: I unlike 99% of GD wouldn’t overestimate NATO. Ukraine’s military was among the largest in Europe in 2022 and Ukraine is a huge country compared to much of Europe, especially compared to Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania. Paired with NATO support and Russian incompetence, especially the first year, that’s what’s resulted in the status of September 2024. If you take out the USA, oversimplifying, what European NATO has over Russia is air dominance, certainly not ground force size Most of the European NATO members are not formidable in their own right - Belgium, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Albania, Canada, Luxembourg, Montenegro, Macedonia, Portugal, etc. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_2116-3316291.jpg https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_2115-3316290.jpg https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_2114-3316281.jpg https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_2112-3316282.jpg https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_2111-3316283.jpg https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_2113-3316284.jpg https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_2117-3316292.jpg It's almost like a lot of those countries have embraced social spending, cut defense spending and rely on an Alliance (aka the US) for defense. Anyone who deployed as part of ISAF or served in Germany should know just how useless the Euros are. The average Air Force Academy football game has more bomber sorties than the entirety of Europe could muster. |
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USA
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Posted: 9/8/2024 12:37:02 AM EST
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CarmelBytheSea: I unlike 99% of GD wouldn’t overestimate NATO. Ukraine’s military was among the largest in Europe in 2022 and Ukraine is a huge country compared to much of Europe, especially compared to Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania. Paired with NATO support and Russian incompetence, especially the first year, that’s what’s resulted in the status of September 2024. If you take out the USA, oversimplifying, what European NATO has over Russia is air dominance, certainly not ground force size Most of the European NATO members are not formidable in their own right - Belgium, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Albania, Canada, Luxembourg, Montenegro, Macedonia, Portugal, etc. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_2118-3316295.jpg https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_2116-3316291.jpg https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_2115-3316290.jpg https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_2114-3316281.jpg https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_2112-3316282.jpg https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_2111-3316283.jpg https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_2113-3316284.jpg https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_2117-3316292.jpg What did that look like pre-92? |
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VA, USA
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Posted: 9/8/2024 12:52:30 AM EST
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By PCB66: Mostly everyone in the world thought that Ukraine would fall in two weeks or less against the mighty Russian Bear. Now they in their third year and have inflicted significant casualties on the Russians. Now they are even invading Russia territory. Who would have thought that they could wound the Bear so much? The Bear has cancer |
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Posted: 9/8/2024 12:52:48 AM EST
[Last Edit: CarmelBytheSea]
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Missilegeek: It's almost like a lot of those countries have embraced social spending, cut defense spending and rely on an Alliance (aka the US) for defense. Anyone who deployed as part of ISAF or served in Germany should know just how useless the Euros are. The average Air Force Academy football game has more bomber sorties than the entirety of Europe could muster. Yeah, someone recently claimed Germany is counting road repairs towards its NATO 2% GDP but even if that’s not true I didn’t bother listing Germany’s size given everyone already doesn’t think highly of their 2024 military status https://amp.dw.com/en/germanys-military-is-aging-and-shrinking-says-report/a-68504942 
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Posted: 9/8/2024 1:02:27 AM EST
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By PeepEater: What did that look like pre-92? Not nearly as bad for NATO, take Germany for example Post Cold War Europe has 30 years of ever shrinking military capacity But the USSR also had the WARSAW pact and Yugoslavia wasn’t broken up    
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Posted: 9/8/2024 1:17:43 AM EST
[#33]
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Posted: 9/8/2024 1:25:02 AM EST
[#34]
Europe has received a bunch of useless immigrants taxing their economies with little benefit in return, certainly not a factor in stabilizing let alone increasing their military personnel https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2024/08/19/global-migration-change-1990-2020/
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USA
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Posted: 9/8/2024 1:55:31 AM EST
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CarmelBytheSea: Europe has received a bunch of useless immigrants taxing their economies with little benefit in return, certainly not a factor in stabilizing let alone increasing their military personnel https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2024/08/19/global-migration-change-1990-2020/ https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_2137-3316314.jpg Received or invited? Their immigration problem seems to mostly be an own goal. |
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Posted: 9/8/2024 2:10:38 AM EST
[Last Edit: CarmelBytheSea]
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By PeepEater: Received or invited? Their immigration problem seems to mostly be an own goal. Yes and no https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/finlands-incoming-government-reduce-immigration-2023-06-16/  https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/04/06/denmark-zero-asylum-refugees/  https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/italy-pass-tougher-measures-deter-migrant-arrivals-2023-09-18/     https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/04/16/europe/europe-migration-chaos-boat-arrivals-intl     
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Posted: 9/8/2024 2:31:33 AM EST
[Last Edit: CarmelBytheSea]
[#37]
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JPN
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Posted: 9/8/2024 2:36:38 AM EST
[#38]
The amount of equipment losses is historical. What a monumental fuck up, nothing good came from this. Nothing.
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Posted: 9/8/2024 6:14:28 AM EST
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By PCB66: Mostly everyone in the world thought that Ukraine would fall in two weeks or less against the mighty Russian Bear. Now they in their third year and have inflicted significant casualties on the Russians. Now they are even invading Russia territory. Who would have thought that they could wound the Bear so much? This is incorrect. Euro news sources including large ones such as Der Spiegel, DW News had "experts" predicting years of warfare within days of the invasion. US media on the other hand.... |
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Posted: 9/8/2024 6:56:09 AM EST
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By UtahShotgunner: This is incorrect. Euro news sources including large ones such as Der Spiegel, DW News had "experts" predicting years of warfare within days of the invasion. US media on the other hand.... Russian government spokesmen and women on the other hand and including their paid American puppets... |
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Posted: 9/8/2024 7:50:34 AM EST
[#42]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By fadedsun: Russian government spokesmen and women on the other hand and including their paid American puppets... Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By fadedsun: Originally Posted By UtahShotgunner: This is incorrect. Euro news sources including large ones such as Der Spiegel, DW News had "experts" predicting years of warfare within days of the invasion. US media on the other hand.... Russian government spokesmen and women on the other hand and including their paid American puppets... While an interesting Russia, Russia, Russia tangent, I was addressing this incorrect statement: "Mostly everyone in the world thought that Ukraine would fall in two weeks or less against the mighty Russian Bear." |
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Posted: 9/8/2024 7:56:21 AM EST
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By fadedsun: Russian government spokesmen and women on the other hand and including their paid American puppets... |
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Posted: 9/8/2024 8:08:13 AM EST
[#44]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By xd341: If reports are to be believed (who knows) we offered Z a plane ride out, which would seem to suggest that our own government assessed that Ukraine would fold quickly. I don't think we'd do that if it looked good. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By xd341: Originally Posted By fadedsun: Russian government spokesmen and women on the other hand and including their paid American puppets... Or our intelligence apparatus did a poor job. |
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Posted: 9/8/2024 8:14:07 AM EST
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By fadedsun: Russian government spokesmen and women on the other hand and including their paid American puppets... Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By fadedsun: Originally Posted By UtahShotgunner: This is incorrect. Euro news sources including large ones such as Der Spiegel, DW News had "experts" predicting years of warfare within days of the invasion. US media on the other hand.... Russian government spokesmen and women on the other hand and including their paid American puppets... Are you referring to those 2 screenshots you always post of a couple Russian nobodies that said that? |
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Posted: 9/8/2024 8:20:58 AM EST
[#46]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By UtahShotgunner: Or our intelligence apparatus did a poor job. Again. |
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Posted: 9/8/2024 8:25:38 AM EST
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By SheltiePimp: The amount of equipment losses is historical. What a monumental fuck up, nothing good came from this. Nothing. Miscalculation is a vital component in war. Lots of stock portfolios have increased, so there is that. |
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Posted: 9/8/2024 2:37:06 PM EST
[#48]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By XJ: They need that land when it comes to a "negotiated" settlement Until then, move the launchers closer to important economic stuff and burn it all down https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/49/General_William_T._Sherman_%284190887790%29_%28cropped%29.jpg Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By XJ: Originally Posted By Missilegeek: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682 Those numbers sound impressive, until you look at the inset map, and see that appears a pretty insignificant chunk of real estate in terms of scale. Looks like they are going to have to do a lot more than that to move the needle. They need that land when it comes to a "negotiated" settlement Until then, move the launchers closer to important economic stuff and burn it all down https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/49/General_William_T._Sherman_%284190887790%29_%28cropped%29.jpg |
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Posted: 9/8/2024 2:38:54 PM EST
[#49]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Zhukov: How much money did we spend on the cold war to check Soviet aggression? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Zhukov: Originally Posted By daemon734: Ah yes, the old 2022 "destroying Russia for pennies on the dollar" talking point. Yeah that ship sailed quite some time ago. How much money did we spend on the cold war to check Soviet aggression? Send another $100 billion, it's inexpensive compared to NATO fighting the Soviet block |
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BC, CAN
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Posted: 9/8/2024 3:01:54 PM EST
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By PCB66: Mostly everyone in the world thought that Ukraine would fall in two weeks or less against the mighty Russian Bear. Now they in their third year and have inflicted significant casualties on the Russians. Now they are even invading Russia territory. Who would have thought that they could wound the Bear so much? Giving the Maidan regime multiple times the amount of support that North Vietnam received in a much longer timeline, had nothing to do with it. |
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