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Posted: 9/6/2024 12:08:24 PM EDT
$65? $60? Lower? |
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USA
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Posted: 9/6/2024 12:09:38 PM EDT
[#1]
They were giving away tankers full of crude just a couple years ago. That’s the bottom.
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Posted: 9/6/2024 12:39:48 PM EDT
[#2]
Year over year growth has been lower than expected. Libyan disruptions are expected to be shorter lived than anticipated. I think OPEC+ will extend output cuts contrary to previous agreements. China slowing demand and refining activity, OECD inventory growth etc all contributing. Watching the Brent Futures we had some backwardation on November contracts as well. Crack spreads in Asia are weaker as are refined products. However the Libya agreement pretty much only has a 30 day window so who knows.
I don’t pretend to prognosticate the prices but a short term dip from here isn’t infeasible . |
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Posted: 9/6/2024 12:42:31 PM EDT
[Last Edit: midcap]
[#3]
crude unlike other commodities is hard to predict, but I don't see it going much lower than 60 where it's support is, my quant model isn't that great with crude due to all the geo political issues and the shear amount of proven reserves which can be released or reduces at any moments notice.
Lumber, Grains, etc are much more reliable to parse out future valuations. |
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Posted: 9/6/2024 1:14:59 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 80085: They were giving away tankers full of crude just a couple years ago. That’s the bottom. Hell, not just giving away, but paying like $2 a bbl. Was interesting seeing oil prices at -$2. |
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Posted: 9/6/2024 1:19:44 PM EDT
[#5]
Depends on what the fed does.
Depends on what the election does. Depends on what OPEC does. US drilling and production is cutting back currently. So my guess is they’re bunkering in for a few months. |
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Posted: 9/6/2024 1:19:51 PM EDT
[Last Edit: maxima2]
[#6]
When gas is $1.25 a gallon it will be close I would think.
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Posted: 9/6/2024 1:21:12 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By maxima2: When gas is $1.25 a gallon it will be close I would think. And then you’ll have no US O&G industry. And we will be paying OPEC countries for everything. Including refining. |
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Posted: 9/6/2024 1:25:10 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MisterPX: Hell, not just giving away, but paying like $2 a bbl. Was interesting seeing oil prices at -$2. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MisterPX: Originally Posted By 80085: They were giving away tankers full of crude just a couple years ago. That’s the bottom. Hell, not just giving away, but paying like $2 a bbl. Was interesting seeing oil prices at -$2. During Covid lockdowns. Even when diesel demand started going up, there was so much gasoline and jet fuel being produced that storage capacity became an issue. |
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Posted: 9/6/2024 1:27:52 PM EDT
[Last Edit: maxima2]
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Foxtrot08: And then you'll have no US O&G industry. And we will be paying OPEC countries for everything. Including refining. That was the right answer? He didn't say where it had to from - could it get lower? $1.00? |
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Posted: 9/6/2024 1:31:31 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By maxima2: So that was close to the bottom then? That was the right answer? He didn't say where it had to from - could it get lower? $1.00? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By maxima2: Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: And then you'll have no US O&G industry. And we will be paying OPEC countries for everything. Including refining. That was the right answer? He didn't say where it had to from - could it get lower? $1.00? The U.S. O&G industry will shut off in the low 50s. They’ll start shutting wells in then. OPEC’s bottom is probably around the mid 30’s right now. But below $50 those countries will start having serious economic issues and people with guns get unhappy over there. |
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Posted: 9/6/2024 1:32:38 PM EDT
[#11]
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Saudi-Arabia-Cuts-Oil-Prices.html
Saudi Arabia’s state-run oil company has cut its October pricing for its Arab Light crude oil for Asian buyers, according to a fresh price list released on Friday. Saudi Aramco has cut its Arab Light crude oil by 70 cents, the price list showed. The news comes as Brent crude prices fell even further, trading at $71.49 per barrel, a $1.20 per barrel decline (-1.65%) on the day and the lowest level in years. Saudi Aramco has also lowered the price of Arab Light to Europe and the United States. The price reduction to Asia—Saudi Aramco’s prime market—does not bode well for the oil company’s outlook on Asian demand, with Official Selling Prices for Asia now at their lowest levels in three years, with weak manufacturing activity in China likely the culprit. Nevertheless, China’s crude oil imports did rebound in August as refiners increased their runs to meet seasonal demand. Saudi Aramco’s move follows Bank of America’s new price forecasts for next year, which have been downgraded to $75 per barrel for Brent, down from $80. The bank lowered its price forecast for WTI to $71 per barrel from $75. |
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Posted: 9/6/2024 1:34:10 PM EDT
[#12]
China was having some pretty bad flooding a few weeks ago. Maybe that had an impact on their demand.
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CA, USA
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Posted: 9/6/2024 1:51:53 PM EDT
[#13]
AlabamaFan64: China's economy is slowing down, their steel industry is in recession. And many companies are fleeing China, so that is adding to the economic choas which is lowering demand for oil, but at some point the demand will pickup, the problem is when.
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Posted: 9/6/2024 1:56:12 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MisterPX: Hell, not just giving away, but paying like $2 a bbl. Was interesting seeing oil prices at -$2. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MisterPX: Originally Posted By 80085: They were giving away tankers full of crude just a couple years ago. That’s the bottom. Hell, not just giving away, but paying like $2 a bbl. Was interesting seeing oil prices at -$2. That was the single craziest thing I’ve ever seen, Financially speaking. Lotsa people must have made (and lost) Billions on it. I was wishing I had some tankers or salt domes to fill. Did we even replenish the Strategic Reserve? Probably not. 
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Posted: 9/6/2024 1:56:15 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By warlord: AlabamaFan64: China's economy is slowing down, their steel industry is in recession. And many companies are fleeing China, so that is adding to the economic choas which is lowering demand for oil, but at some point the demand will pickup, the problem is when. I’ve been reading this as well. China absolutely has been a huge percentage of petroleum demand and makes a big impact in cost. |
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TX, USA
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Posted: 9/6/2024 1:56:31 PM EDT
[#16]
lower....global economic slowdown.
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Posted: 9/6/2024 1:57:55 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By maxima2: When gas is $1.25 a gallon it will be close I would think. Already is, inflation adjusted. Price it out in gold, just for kicks. |
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Posted: 9/6/2024 1:59:58 PM EDT
[#18]
The bottom?
Well, it ain't $0. |
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Posted: 9/6/2024 2:15:10 PM EDT
[#19]
Obviously, zero.
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Posted: 9/6/2024 2:16:46 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By xciapup: Obviously, zero. Not when you trade futures. 
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USA
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Posted: 9/6/2024 2:19:35 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 999monkeys]
[#21]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CajunMojo: The bottom? Well, it ain't $0. It can go negative. Did so in 2020 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=46336 |
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Posted: 9/6/2024 2:34:15 PM EDT
[#22]
Originally Posted By dogsplat: $65? $60? Lower? "The Spice Must Flow" |
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USA
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Posted: 9/6/2024 2:51:31 PM EDT
[#23]
They’re gonna have to pay me to take it.
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USA
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Posted: 9/6/2024 2:53:19 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Foxtrot08: And then you’ll have no US O&G industry. And we will be paying OPEC countries for everything. Including refining. And what are you? Some kind of oil expert or something? |
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Posted: 9/6/2024 2:56:14 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BillofRights: That was the single craziest thing I’ve ever seen, Financially speaking. Lotsa people must have made (and lost) Billions on it. I was wishing I had some tankers or salt domes to fill. Did we even replenish the Strategic Reserve? Probably not. No, Trump wanted to, but it was blocked by congress. |
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WI, USA
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Posted: 9/6/2024 3:03:41 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By First-World-Problems: And what are you? Some kind of oil expert or something? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By First-World-Problems: Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: And then you’ll have no US O&G industry. And we will be paying OPEC countries for everything. Including refining. And what are you? Some kind of oil expert or something? That made me snicker. I always tune in when Foxtrot is on the microphone. |
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Posted: 9/6/2024 3:03:43 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By First-World-Problems: And what are you? Some kind of oil expert or something? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By First-World-Problems: Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: And then you'll have no US O&G industry. And we will be paying OPEC countries for everything. Including refining. And what are you? Some kind of oil expert or something? I was on a leasing project in TX when it went negative. Guess what? They pulled the plug on that project the next day. Everybody was told to submit their last billing statement and best of luck. |
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NY, USA
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Posted: 9/6/2024 3:03:58 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BillofRights: Did we even replenish the Strategic Reserve? Probably not. Trump was buying it at around $25 a barrel to top off the reserve and had it near capacity... But sleepy Joe took care of that for us... |
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Posted: 9/6/2024 3:17:43 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By OregonShooter: No, Trump wanted to, but it was blocked by congress. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By OregonShooter: Originally Posted By BillofRights: That was the single craziest thing I’ve ever seen, Financially speaking. Lotsa people must have made (and lost) Billions on it. I was wishing I had some tankers or salt domes to fill. Did we even replenish the Strategic Reserve? Probably not. No, Trump wanted to, but it was blocked by congress. It shouldn’t exist. Privatize it. |
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Posted: 9/6/2024 4:07:36 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BillofRights: That was the single craziest thing I’ve ever seen, Financially speaking. Lotsa people must have made (and lost) Billions on it. I was wishing I had some tankers or salt domes to fill. Did we even replenish the Strategic Reserve? Probably not. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BillofRights: Originally Posted By MisterPX: Originally Posted By 80085: They were giving away tankers full of crude just a couple years ago. That’s the bottom. Hell, not just giving away, but paying like $2 a bbl. Was interesting seeing oil prices at -$2. That was the single craziest thing I’ve ever seen, Financially speaking. Lotsa people must have made (and lost) Billions on it. I was wishing I had some tankers or salt domes to fill. Did we even replenish the Strategic Reserve? Probably not. As I’ve posted before there was already a permanent draw down authorized under previous budgets to “pay” for other expenditures 
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MN, USA
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Posted: 9/6/2024 4:20:14 PM EDT
[#31]
The American tax payer is the bottom for oil.
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Posted: 9/6/2024 4:21:58 PM EDT
[Last Edit: governmentman]
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Foxtrot08: Depends on what the fed does. Depends on what the election does. Depends on what OPEC does. US drilling and production is cutting back currently. So my guess is they’re bunkering in for a few months. China's economic wheels are showing some bigger wobbles lately too. Capital inflows are crashing, to the point that some foreign investors are bailing and taking their money with them. Real estate and construction are a mess, which was one of their two major growth engines (export manufacturing being the other). Chinese consumer spending - which was never particularly bold - has pulled back further. All while they are sitting on a particularly volatile $13 trillion dollar LGFV debt bomb. |
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Posted: 9/7/2024 11:32:42 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Harmonic_Distortion]
[#33]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By governmentman: China's economic wheels are showing some bigger wobbles lately too. Capital inflows are crashing, to the point that some foreign investors are bailing and taking their money with them. Real estate and construction are a mess, which was one of their two major growth engines (export manufacturing being the other). Chinese consumer spending - which was never particularly bold - has pulled back further. All while they are sitting on a particularly volatile $13 trillion dollar LGFV debt bomb. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By governmentman: Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Depends on what the fed does. Depends on what the election does. Depends on what OPEC does. US drilling and production is cutting back currently. So my guess is they’re bunkering in for a few months. China's economic wheels are showing some bigger wobbles lately too. Capital inflows are crashing, to the point that some foreign investors are bailing and taking their money with them. Real estate and construction are a mess, which was one of their two major growth engines (export manufacturing being the other). Chinese consumer spending - which was never particularly bold - has pulled back further. All while they are sitting on a particularly volatile $13 trillion dollar LGFV debt bomb. Maybe it's better if Trump doesn't win. Who would want an economic collapse to fall on a Republican's watch? Just thinking out loud. |
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UT, USA
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Posted: 9/7/2024 11:36:32 AM EDT
[#34]
I’m just here to yell at the clouds….
Motherfucking diesel dropped to $3.02 at Costco the other day and I figured it was finally going to start dropping or staying around the high $2 to low $3 per gallon mark. Stopped by yesterday shit went back up to $3.27 per gallon in 2 days. 
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