I got to enjoy the show back in May, but I’ve got another spot picked out for the next round. Looking like odds are good we will get another chance.

Attached File

https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates/

Sun news August 3: It is now official; July 2024 peak of Solar Cycle 25

Today’s top story: It is now official! The monthly average sunspot number for July 2024 is 196.5, a new high. The previous maximum was in May 2024 was 171.7. The last time the monthly average was higher than 196.5 was in December 2001, with 213 during Solar Cycle 23. This was 23 years ago. The peak number for Solar Cycle 23 was 244 in July 2000 (the month of the Bastille Day Flare). The original predictions for Solar Cycle 25 in 2019 estimated that the cycle would be approximately the same size as the previous cycle, Solar Cycle 24. Solar Cycle 25 has surpassed this prediction. Tonight (according to clocks in the Americas) into tomorrow morning, minor-to-moderate storming and auroras are expected. Clear skies and good luck! Stay tuned for more sun news.

Last 24 hours: During the past day solar activity dropped down to moderate with only small  M flares. Between 11 UTC and 11 UTC today, our observation period, overall flare number increased from 18 to 23 with eight M and 14 C flares. The largest flare was an M1.9 flare from active region AR3765 at 7:30 UTC on August 3. An R1 (minor) radio blackout affected an area over the Arabian Sea.  The list of M flares is:
• M1.2 at 12:33 UTC on August 2 from AR3773. R1 (minor) radio blackout  the African Northwest.
• M1.1 at 13:50 UTC on August 2 from AR3775. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean.
• M1.5 at 15:30 UTC on August 2 from AR3766. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the middle of the Atlantic Ocean.
• M1.3 at 23:58 UTC on August 2 by unnumbered NE. R1 (minor) radio blackout over west Ocean Pacific.
• M1.0 at 00:27 UTC on August 3 by unnumbered SE. R1 (minor) radio blackout over west Ocean Pacific.
• M1.5 at 04:59 UTC on August 3 by AR3770. R1 (minor) radio blackout over Laos.
• M1.5 at 07:05 UTC on August 3 from AR3768. R1 (minor) radio blackout over India.
• M1.9 at 07:30 UTC on August 3 from AR3765. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Arabian Sea off the northwest coast of India.
Active region AR376 is the lead flare producer of the period, with seven flares (an M and three Cs). The sun has 12 active regions on the Earth-facing side. There is a newcomer: AR3777.

Next 24 hours: The chance for C flares is 99%. The chance for M flares is 75%. The chance for X flares is 25%.

Next expected CME: Analysis and modeling of the coronal mass ejection (CME) produced during the M8.1 event by AR3768 indicates a miss. No other CME Earth-bound were observed in the available chronograph imagery.

Current geomagnetic activity: Earth’s magnetic field is quiet at the time of this writing (11 UTC on August 3). A coronal mass ejection (CME) that left the sun on August 1 may arrive at Earth providing conditions for a G1-G2 (minor-moderate) geomagnetic storm  on August 3 extending thru 4. This may increase the chances of auroral displays at high latitudes. Alert for aurora hunters!

https://spaceweather.com/

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G2): NOAA has issued a geomagnetic storm watch for Aug. 3rd, when a CME is expected to graze Earth's magnetic field. Hurled into space by an M8-class solar flare, the CME could spark a G2-class geomagnetic storm with naked-eye auroras in northern-tier US states. CME Impact alerts: SMS Text

SUNSPOT COUNTS HIT A 23-YEAR HIGH: The sun is partying like it's 2001. That's the last time sunspot counts were as high as they are now. The monthly average sunspot number for July 2024 was 196.5, according to the Royal Observatory of Belgium's Solar Influences Data Analysis Center. This eclipses every month since Dec. 2001:



Solar Cycle 25 wasn't expected to be this strong. When it began in Dec. 2019, experts predicted it would be a weak cycle like its immediate predecessor Solar Cycle 24. If that forecast had panned out, Solar Cycle 25 would be one of the weakest solar cycles in a century.

Instead, Solar Cycle 25 has shot past Solar Cycle 24 and may be on pace to rival some of the stronger cycles of the 20th century. Already in May 2024 we have experienced a century-class geomagnetic storm with auroras sighted in the South Pacific, central America and south Africa.



The last time sunspot numbers were this high, the sun was on the verge of launching the Great Halloween Storms of 2003, which included the strongest X-ray solar flare ever recorded (X45) and a CME so powerful it was ultimately detected by the Voyager spacecraft at the edge of the solar system.

Is this Solar Max? The jury is still out. Sunspot numbers may continue to rise in the months ahead and, based on the behavior of previous cycles, we can confidently expect high solar activity for at least 2 to 3 more years. Stay tuned! Solar flare alerts: SMS Text

NM, I thought this was a new thread.

August 3, 2024 @ 21:50 UTC
As of this update there has been no sign of CME observed on August 1st brushing past Earth. A moderate (G2) geomagnetic storm watch remains in effect for now should a passage in fact take place as predicted.
Solar activity reached higher levels on Saturday with a pair of M-Flares above the M5.0 threshold. The first event, an impulsive M7.3, was observed around AR 3775 at 18:39 UTC (Aug 3). The second event measured M5.4 and was centered off the northeast limb. This may be the return of old AR 3744 from the previous rotation. No Earth directed eruptions of plasma were observed today in coronagraph imagery.

August 4, 2024 @ 15:00 UTC (UPDATED)
The Bz component of the interplantary magnetic field (IMF) has been pointing south for the past several hours. Strong (G3) geomagnetic storming is being observed. This is likely the result of an expected CME passing just upstream of Earth. Not the best timing for aurora watchers in North America, but viewers in Europe should be alert later once it is dark outside.

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 7
Threshold Reached: 2024 Aug 04 1459 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G3 - Strong

August 4, 2024 @ 23:20 UTC
The moderate (G2) to strong (G3) geomagnetic storm on Sunday was brief lasting about 3 hours. Geomagnetic activity has since returned to below storm levels. There was a bump in solar wind speed a few hours ago at 21:27 UTC (Aug 4), but with the Bz/IMF now shifted to the north, it did not contribute to any enhancements.
Solar activity so far today has been moderate with occasional low level M-Flares and minor C-Flares. AR 3780, the source of a few of those flares, continues to turn into view off the southeast limb. The region appears to have a beta-gamma magnetic layout and will likely remain a threat for at least moderate M-Flares.

August 5, 2024 @ 09:15 UTC
Large active sunspot region 3780 produced an M6.1 solar flare earlier this morning at 05:23 UTC (Aug 5). There is a coronal mass ejection (CME) visible in the latest imagery that appears to be directed mostly to the east. A further update will be provided later today should the edge of the plasma cloud be Earth directed.

August 5, 2024 @ 14:45 UTC
Kaboom!
Departing sunspot region 3767 produced a strong X1.7 solar flare at 13:40 UTC (Aug 5). This event is associated with a westerly directed CME as the region is no longer in direct view. Although the CME itself should be directed away from Earth, there is a chance that energetic particles could still find their way towards our planet. More details to follow.

https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates/

Sun news August 5: Two large active sunspot regions

Today’s top story: They’re here! The two active sunspot groups we have been waiting on have rotated into view. The are numbered AR3780 in the southeast and AR3781 in the northeast. AR3781 erupted several times before any sunspots were in view. It produced an M5.5 flare from around the sun’s limb (edge). The flare was really much larger than M5.5, but it was partially occulted (blocked). The area has shown interesting activity with a large filament and plasma rotating around it. Now, AR3780 is the most active. It produced the most flares over the past 24 hours, including an M6.1. Both regions have not rotated enough into view to allow for an accurate determination of their magnetic complexity. Stay tuned to see what happens next.

Last 24 hours: Sun activity was high. We had five M flares – including an M6.1 – over the past day (between 11 UTC yesterday and 11 UTC today). The sun produced 16 flares in the past day: five M and 11 C. The largest flare was an M6.1 from active region AR3780 at 5:23 UTC on August 5. An R2 (moderate) radio blackout affected an area over South Asia. The list of M flares is:
• M2.2 at 15:15 UTC on August 3 from AR3774. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean.
• M2.2 at 15:15 UTC on August 4 from AR3780. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean.
• M1.0 at 22:11 UTC on August 4 from AR3780. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean.
• M1.2 at 02:31 UTC on August 5 from AR3780. R1 (minor) radio blackout over East Asia and the Pacific Ocean.
• M6.1 at 05:23 UTC on August 5 from AR3780. R2 (moderate) radio blackout over South Asia.
• M1.7 at 10:01 UTC on August 5 from AR3767. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Middle East.
Active region AR3780 is the lead flare producer of the period, with nine flares (five M and four C). The sun has ten active regions on the Earth-facing side. The new regions for the period are AR3779, AR3780, and AR3781.

Next 24 hours: The chance for C flares is 99%. The chance for M flares is 75%. The chance for X flares is 25%.

Next expected CME: No new Earth-bound coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in the available chronograph imagery.

Current geomagnetic activity: Earth’s magnetic field is G1 (minor) unsettled at the time of this writing (11 UTC on August 5). It appears the coronal mass ejection (CME) that left the sun on August 1 reached Earth, causing conditions for a G3 (strong) geomagnetic storm. The threshold (Kp = 7) was reached at 14:59 UTC on August 4. NOAA is predicting a G1 (minor) storm for today due to lingering CME effects. Unsettled to active levels are expected on August 6-7 as the CME effects continue to wane.

https://spaceweather.com/

X-CLASS SOLAR FLARES: Earth-orbiting satellites have detected two strong X-class solar flares on Aug. 5th. One (X1.7) came from departing sunspot AR3767 near the sun's western limb, the other (X1.1) from giant new sunspot AR3780 near the eastern limb. Shortwave radio blackouts occured over the Atlantic Ocean and the Americas as a result of the flares. More X-flares are in the offing especially from AR3780. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text

CALIFORNIA AURORAS: A close encounter with a CME during the early hours of Aug. 4th sparked a strong G3-class geomagnetic storm. "A beautiful aurora lit up the northern sky from the White Mountains of California at 37°N latitude near the town of Bishop," reports photographer Chris Cook, who took this picture just before local sunrise:



"From my Bortle 2 location not far from a forest of ancient Bristlecone Pines, the display was easily visible to the eye including faint pillars," says Cook. Mid-latitude auroras were also seen in Colorado, New Zealand and China.

The storm is over now. However, isolated episodes of minor G1 storming could re-occur as Earth exits the CME's wake on Aug. 5th. Aurora alerts: SMS Text

August 5, 2024 @ 18:00 UTC
Kaboom Part II.
Another X-Flare to report, this time around AR 3780 at 15:27 UTC. This event was associated with a Type II radio emission with an estimated velocity of 925 km/s. A coronal mass ejection (CME) is now becoming visible in the latest coronagraph imagery. A further update will be added once full imagery is available to see if an Earth directed component is evident. This region will continue to turn into a better Earth facing position with each passing day.

Sooo we could be heading into a 2024 SolarStorm 2/ Aurora Boogaloo?

CME Update: The X1.1 solar flare around AR 3780 today was responsible for coronal mass ejection (CME) that appears to be headed to the east and away from Earth. Only a weak glancing blow at best could be expected within 72 hours and even that is not very likely. An earlier, more energetic CME associated with the X1.7 event off the west limb is responsible for an uptick on particle levels that remains below the (S1) radiation storm threshold for now. The CME itself is directed away from our planet.

The X1.7 from beyond the Western limb (X3.0 on STIX) was fairly long duration and eruptive but being as far beyond the limb as it was it's not likely we're going to get any significant impact from it. The X1.1 from the Eastern limb was impulsive and while it did fire off a CME, it was pretty weak and not very fast moving. Still too early to say if it's going to be partial-halo or not but I don't have high hopes for it.

Notice how the X1.7 has a long, broad curve and the X1.1 is short duration and spikey
Attached File


X1.7 CME starts at 14:00, X1.1 CME begins at 17:00

August 6, 2024 @ 01:00 UTC
Solar activity during the past 6 hours has been fairly quiet. Quite the contrast compared to earlier today. Despite this, a strong solar flare will remain a possibility during the next 24 hours with both AR 3774 and 3780 being the most likely sources. AR 3774 showed signs of reorganizing as some new flux emergence was observed during the past several hours. AR 3780 continues to evolve as it rotates further into view and is listed with a size measuring 930 millionths. The main dark core is roughly the size of two planet Earths across.

https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates/

Sun news August 6: Bam Bam! Dueling X flares

Today’s top story: Bam Bam! Two X flares in less than two hours. The two flares were produced by sunspot active regions AR3767 and AR3780. The first and larger was an X1.7 at 13:40 UTC on August 5 from AR3767. The second was an X1.2 at 15:27 UTC on August 5 by AR3780. It was as if these two regions were playing a ping-pong game: an X flare from AR3780 came as a response for an X flare from AR3776, and then, an M flare by AR3767 was responded to with an M flare from AR3780. Seeing this solar conversation from one end on the west to the opposite end on the east of the solar disk was fantastic. AR3767 departed over the southwest limb, as AR3780 into view over the southeast limb (edge). AR3780 is the largest sunspot region in both size and magnetic complexity with a beta-gamma-delta configuration. We will continue to watch this region to see what’s in store. Stay tuned for more sun news.

Last 24 hours: The two August 5 X flares kept solar activity at high. During our observation period, between 11 UTC yesterday and 11 UTC today, the sun produced two X and three M flares.  The sun produced 17 flares in the past day: Two X, three M and 12 C flares. The largest flare was an X1.7 from AR3767 on the southwest limb (edge) at 13:40 UTC on August 5. An R3 (strong) radio blackout affected an area over the Atlantic Ocean. The list of X and M flares is:
• X1.7 at 13:40 UTC on August 5 from AR3767. R3 (strong) radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean off the west coast of Africa.
• X1.2 at 15:27 UTC on August 5 from AR3780. R3 (strong) radio blackout over the middle of the Atlantic Ocean.
• M1.0 at 18:02 UTC on August 5 from AR3767. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Gulf of Mexico.
• M1.2 at 18:37 UTC on August 5 from AR3780. R1 (minor) radio blackout over Mexico.
• M1.2 at 03:03 UTC on August 6 from AR3781. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Philippine Sea.
Active region AR3781 is the lead flare producer, with five flares (an M and four Cs). The sun has eight active regions on its Earth-facing side. Today, three of the eight solar active regions show a beta-gamma configuration. They are AR3772, AR3774 and AR3775. AR3780 keeps its beta-gamma-delta configuration.

Next 24 hours: The chance for C flares is 99%. The chance for M flares is 75%. The chance for X flares is 25%.

Next expected CME: Out of the two X flares on August 5, the one produced by AR3780 produced a coronal mass ejection (CME) that may provide a glancing blow. Modeling and analysis are ongoing. We will bring you the results as soon as they come from the specialists. No other Earth-bound coronal mass ejections were observed in the available chronograph imagery.

Current geomagnetic activity: Earth’s magnetic field is quiet at the time of this writing (11 UTC on August 6). Quiet to unsettled levels may continue for the rest of the day through tomorrow, August 7. We are waiting on the results of modeling and analysis of the coronal mass ejection (CME) produced during the X flare event by AR3780, which may provide a glancing blow.

\uD83C\uDF1E \uD83E\uDD29 \uD83D\uDC4F It's an X flare duel between AR3767 and AR3780 on the west limb, then the east limb (edge). An X1.7, then an X1.1. Sun Fun! \uD83D\uDE2E \uD83D\uDE31 \uD83D\uDE0E #spaceweather #solarmax pic.twitter.com/hBew7wIAWb

Dr. C. Alex Young  (@TheSunToday) August 5, 2024

https://spaceweather.com/

CALM BEFORE THE STORM? The sun has been mostly quiet for the past 24 hours. It could be the calm before the storm. There are currently two sunspots with 'delta-class' magnetic fields capable of unleashing X-class solar flares. Earth is in the strike zone if either AR3772 or AR3780 explodes today. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text

STRANGE SKY PHENOMENON--EXPLAINED: Earth orbit is about to get a lot more crowded. On Aug. 6th, China launched the first 18 satellites of its Thousand Sails megaconstellation. The booster stage of the Long March rocket created a spectacular display over Albany, Missouri:



"I did not see it in person," says Dan Bush, whose automated sky camera captured the comet-like plumes. "In the morning when I checked my images for Perseids, I discovered I had recorded this remarkable event."

Pilot Alexander Goroshko of Westjet Airlines witnessed the display from a plane flying over Denver at 39,000 ft. "It looked amazing from the flight deck," he says.

The comet-like display was caused by the rocket booster dumping left-over propellent--a normal safety precaution before re-entering Earth's atmosphere. Fuel dumps by SpaceX's Falcon 9 rockets frequently look like spirals because the rockets spin to release their Starlink satellites. This may be a case of a spiral viewed at an angle.

Thousand Sails is a Chinese initiative to compete with Starlink. Officials say that 108 satellites are planned for launch this year in separate batches of 36 and 54 satellites; another 500 are planned for 2025. Ultimately the megaconstellation will contain more than 14,000 satellites (Starlink currently has about 5,500).

Environmentalists have raised many concerns about Starlink including light-pollution of the night sky, a potentially hazardous traffic jam in low-Earth orbit, and even ozone depletion. Thousand Sails will multiply these concerns.

https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates/

Sun news August 7: Three sunspot regions show a high potential

Today’s top story: Today the sun has eight active regions on its Earth-facing side, three of them show strong magnetic complexity with a beta-gamma-delta configuration. This is the most complex configuration, meaning the potential for the production of M and X flares. These sunspot regions are AR3774, AR3777, and AR3780. In addition, AR3781 has a beta-delta configuration. Despite all this, today, mostly, the sun almost took a day off. We saw a noticeable reduction in flare numbers and size compared with the last day when we saw above 20 flares a day with multiple M and even X flares. Today, the sun produced only nine flares, and thanks to a couple of faint Ms, solar activity reached a moderate level. Today, the sunspot region AR3780 remains the solar disk’s largest size and most complex. It can be seen without magnification aid only wearing eye protection such as eclipse glasses.  If you have a chance, put on your eclipse glasses, turn your head to the sun, and take a look. Don’t forget your eye protection!

Last 24 hours: Solar activity was moderate during the past day. The sun produced nine flares, two M flares and seven C flares during our observation period between 11 UTC yesterday and 11 UTC today. The largest was an M1.8 flare from AR3774 at 2:30 UTC on August 7. An R1 (minor) radio blackout affected an area over the Philippine Sea. The second M flare was an M1.1 from sunspot region AR3781 at 4:57 UTC on August 7. The corresponding R1 (minor) radio blackout affected an area over Hanoi in China. The lead flare producer was active region AR3774 with five flares (an M and four C flares). The sun has eight active regions on its Earth-facing side. Three active regions, AR3774, AR3777 and AR3780, show a beta-gamma-delta configuration. AR3772 kept its beta-gamma magnetic complexity. AR3781 has a beta-delta in its configuration.

Next 24 hours: The chance for C flares is 99%. The chance for M flares is 75%. The chance for X flares is 25%.

Next expected CME:  No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in the available chronograph imagery.

Current geomagnetic activity: Earth’s magnetic field is quiet at the time of this writing (11 UTC on August 7). Quiet-to-unsettled levels will continue for the rest of today. The coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the X1.1 flare event by AR3780 will pass behind Earth. Still, the wake of the CME combined with a solar wind south bound component may bring some enhancements for unsettled levels on August 8.

August 7, 2024 @ 19:10 UTC (UPDATED)
AR 3777 just produced an M5.0 solar flare at 18:54 UTC (Aug 7). This latest event is associated with a type II radio emission with an estimated velocity of 792 km/s. An update regarding a possible CME will be provided a little later.
Coronagraph imagery does show that an earlier M4.5 flare around AR 3774 did generate what appears to be a faint partial halo CME directed mostly to the south and west. Also of interest is a faint full halo CME appearing around 15:00 UTC. That one may have been farsided however and not Earth directed. Stay tuned.



Storm Watch Added: NOAA/SWPC are calling for possible Moderate (G2) storming on August 9-10 in response to CME activity observed on Wednesday. More updates in the days ahead.

Thanks for keeping up on this. I check it whenever it's bumped.

https://spaceweather.com/

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G2): One and possibly two CMEs are heading for Earth following M-class explosions from sunspots AR3774 and AR3777 on Aug. 7th. Their arrival on Aug. 10th could spark G2 to G3-class geomagnetic storms. Stay tuned for updates as NOAA refines their forecast model for these CMEs. CME Impact alerts: SMS Text

https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates/

Sun news August 8: Wow! Five sunspot regions showing huge potential

Today’s top story:  Yesterday we saw three active regions showing serious potential. Today two more were added to the list of high flare potential. Active regions AR3772, AR3774, AR3777, AR3780 and AR3781 are displaying the highest level of magnetic complexity, beta-gamma-delta, meaning they can blast big M flares and X flares any minute. For now solar activity was registered at high levels with only M flares but bigger sparks may be building up under those beta-gamma-delta guys. We will keep an eye to bring you what they have in store. Active region AR3780 keeps as  the largest on the Earth-facing sun. It can even be seen without magnification from Earth as long as you be sure to wear the correct eye protection. Put on your eclipse glasses and take a look at the sun, and you’ll see a sunspot region that could be bringing us some major activity in the coming days!

Last 24 hours:  Solar activity moved up to high  levels during the past day with the production of  four M flares.  Flare production during our observation period between 11 UTC yesterday and 11 UTC today was of 19 flares, the mentioned four Ms added another 15 C flares. The largest was an M5.02 flare produced by active region AR3774 at 18:54 UTC on August 7. This is the list of the M flares of the period:
• M4.5 at 13:50 UTC on August 7 from AR3774. R1 (minor) radio blackout over
• M5.02 at 18:54 UTC on August 7 from AR3777. R2(moderate) radio blackout over Mexico. The largest.
• M2.1 at 1:06 UTC on August 8 from AR3777. R1 (minor) radio blackout over west Pacific Ocean.
• M1.3 at 4:40 UTC on August 8 from AR3777. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the South China Sea.
Position of sun lead flare producer of the period was shared by two active regions: AR3777 and AR3780 who blasted out seven flares each.AR3777 was the producer of three M flares, the largest of the period included.  Today the sun has eight active regions on its Earth-facing side. There is a newcomer on the east limb (edge) now labeled AR3782. Added to the three active regions we reported yesterday showing a beta-gamma-delta configuration, AR3774, AR3777 and AR3780, today we add to the list active regions AR3772 and AR3781. AR3782 kept a beta-gamma magnetic complexity.

Next 24 hours: The chance for C flares is 99%. The chance for M flares is 75%. The chance for X flares is 25%.

Next expected CME:  Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) registered by SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery are under modeling and analysis.  A SE directed CME. A CME associated with the M4.5 from Region 3774  beginning at 07/14:12 UTC on August 7 show a component headed our was at Earth. Model analysis shows a CME arrival late  August 9 through early August 10. The CME produced during the M5.0 flare from active region 3777 continues under analysis.

Current geomagnetic activity: Earth’s magnetic field is quiet at the time of this writing (11 UTC on August 8). Quiet-to-unsettled levels anticipated for the rest of the day  today. The coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the M4.5  flare by AR3774 may arrive late August 9 – early August 10. A G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storm watch was issued. Alert for aurora hunters. Get those cameras out!

August 8, 2024 @ 19:35 UTC
An X1.3 solar flare was detected around AR 3777 at 19:35 UTC. A type II radio emission with an estimated velocity of 1026 km/s was recorded. Coronal dimming is already evident meaning a coronal mass ejection (CME) is likely. Due to the event location facing Earth, it will more than likely be directed towards our planet. More details to follow.

\uD83C\uDF1E \uD83E\uDD29 \uD83D\uDE31 Kaboom!! An X1.3 flare is currently underway. It peaked around 19:57 UTC from AR3777. More to come! \uD83D\uDE2E \uD83E\uDEE3 \uD83D\uDCA5 #spaceweather #solarmax pic.twitter.com/dw9dS8FAGz

Dr. C. Alex Young  (@TheSunToday) August 8, 2024

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/r3-strong-radio-blackout-observed-08-aug

I was monitoring GOES X-ray flux live as this one popped off. Fun seeing it develop in real time. The GOES feed actually crapped out as it hit M8.1 so I had to go this SDO derivative for an alternative.
https://lasp.colorado.edu/eve/data_access/sdo-goes-eve-flare-watch/index.html

Pretty early yet but the coronal dimming isn't super intense or fast so I'm keeping my expectations fairly low for this one but the next few hours on C2/C3 should give us a better picture. Seems like ESA is fast refreshing the imagery so we should get minimal time between frames. First few frames haven't been very spectacular though.

EDIT: Fairly low intensity and primarily SW directed

August 9, 2024 @ 03:55 UTC
Coronagraph imagery following the X1.3 solar flare around AR 3777 is finally available. The event was associated with an asymmetric halo CME that appears to have an Earth directed component. The main bulk of plasma looks to be heading south of the Sun-Earth line, however a shock passage past Earth will still be possible within 48-72 hours. With at least two other eruptions expected to pass Earth over the next few days, this could prolong or intensify moderate (G2) storming already in the forecast. We will have to wait and see as conditions unfold this weekend.

https://spaceweather.com/

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G3): A series of three CMEs is now heading for Earth. The first two, launched by M-class flares on August 7th, are relatively minor. The third, launched by yesterday's X-flare (described below), is more potent. Striking Earth in succession on Aug. 9th, 10th, and 11th, the three CMEs could spark geomagnetic storms as strong as category G3 with mid-latitude auroras in the USA and Europe. CME Impact alerts: SMS Text

X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE AND HALO CME: Active sunspot AR3777 just produced its most powerful solar flare yet--an X1.3-class explosion on Aug. 8th (1935 UT). NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:



Radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere and caused a shortwave radio blackout from North America to the Hawaiian islands. Mariners and ham radio operators may have noticed loss of signal below 30 MHz for as much as an hour after the flare.

Of greater interest is the coronal mass ejection (CME). Soon after the flare, SOHO coronagraphs detected a halo CME heading straight for Earth:



This CME is moving faster than 1,000 km/s (2.2 million mph) and it will likely arrive no later than Aug. 11th, adding its effect to that of two earlier CMEs already en route. The impact could push geomagnetic storm levels to category G3 (Strong) with mid-latitude auroras in the USA and Europe. Aurora alerts: SMS Text

https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates/

Sun news August 9: Kaboom! X1.3 flare from AR3777

Today’s top story: X flare! Active region AR3777 released an X1.3 flare at 19:35 UTC on August 8. It was just a matter of time after seeing five active regions on the Earth-facing solar disk with the highest level of magnetic complexity, a beta-gamma-delta, for an X flare. These regions have the potential for M and X flares. That is what we got: an X flare with five more M flares during our observation period. It was exciting to observe the X-ray plot going up and up until it reached the X level and reached a peak in this X1.3. We must keep watching since, today, four active regions have beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexity. Energy for more M and even X flares may be building up. Stay tuned, and we will bring you more solar news.

Last 24 hours: An X flare kept sun activity high over the past day. Active region AR3777 produced the X1.3 flare at 19:35 UTC on August 8. An R3 (strong) radio blackout affected an area over the Pacific Ocean off the west coast of Mexico. Flare production during our observation between 11 UTC yesterday and 11 UTC today was 17 flares, the X1.3, five M and 11 C flares. The list of the X and M flares for the period is:
• M1.6 at 11:42 UTC on August 8 from AR3777. R1 (minor) radio blackout over Algeria.
• M1.0 at 12:13 UTC on August 8 from AR3781. R1 (minor) radio blackout over Morocco.
• M1.0 at 13:00 UTC on August 8 from AR3781. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean off the northwest coast of Africa.
• M1.5 at 13:43 UTC on August 8 from incoming region SE. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean in Cabo Verde Islands.
• X1.3 at 19:35 UTC on August 8 from AR3777. R3 (strong) radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean off the west coast of Mexico. The largest.
• M1.2 at 22:51 UTC on August 8 from AR3780. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean southwest of Hawaii.
The lead flare producers for the period are active regions, AR3777, AR3780, and an as-yet-unnumbered incoming region on the southeast; each produced four flares. AR3777 produced the X flare and one of the M flares during the period. The sun has eight active regions on the Earth-facing side. A newcomer in the northeast quadrant is now labeled AR3783. Sunspot region AR380 has grown to an area of approximately 8 Earths. It is the largest sunspot region on the sun and is visible from Earth without magnification. Be sure to wear the correct eye protection is you observe the sun.

Next 24 hours: The chance for C flares is 99%. The chance for M flares is 75%. The chance for X flares is 25%.

Next expected CME: An M1.3 flare from AR3777 at 4:41 UTC on August 8 has a partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) associated it. The CME is expected to reach Earth on August 10-11. The analysis of the X1.3 flare event is ongoing to determine if any component is headed our way. We will wait for what the analysts have to say.

Current geomagnetic activity: Earth’s magnetic field is quiet at the time of this writing (11 UTC on August 9). A G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storm watch was issued for later on today extended through tomorrow August 10. Get those cameras out, aurora hunters!

They haven't simulated the X1.3 CME in ENLIL yet.(the CME impact animation above) Last run time is 08-08 15:00 UT. I assume they're waiting for more gaps in the SOHO data to get filled in. Should see it modeled later today.

We need to raise taxes and give up more of our Rights if we have any chance of surviving this.

So it’s not happening?

August 9, 2024 @ 20:40 UTC
The latest CME forecast model calls for the X1.3/CME to pass Earth by late August 11th and into the 12th. This will likely be more certain than the previous couple of eruptions forecast to arrive at anytime. So far there has been no sign of an incoming shock passage and the G1 to G2 storm outlook for August 9th appears unlikely. I will continue to monitor solar wind conditions and report further information whenever necessary.

I'm guessing that if they keep popping off like this, then we will have a great opportunity for auroras as the winter months approach? I'm ready!

https://spaceweather.com/

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH--UPDATED: Geomagnetic storms are possible for the next three days (Aug 10th-12th) in response to a series of CMEs now heading for Earth. NOAA forecasters are predicting moderate G2-class storms. Multiple impacts in quick succession could escalate the storm to category G3 (Strong). During such storms mid-latitude auroras can appear in the USA and Europe. CME Impact alerts: SMS Text

FARSIDE SUNSPOT REPORT: The Earthside of the sun just hit its highest sunspot number (299) in more than 20 years. The farside sunspot count might be even higher. Helioseismic maps of the farside of the sun reveal vast areas of potential sunspot activity:



The black blobs are sunspots so large they effect the way the whole sun vibrates. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory can measure the vibrations, allowing helioseismologists to pinpoint farside sunspot groups even though they are invisible from Earth. Farside activity visible in today's map is among the most widespread of Solar Cycle 25.

https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates/


Sun news August 10: Auroral displays anticipated tonight and tomorrow

Today’s top story:  Auroral displays are expected to occur tonight and tomorrow night with the arrival of multiple coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that the left the sun on August 8. A  G1 to G2 (minor to moderate) geomagnetic storm is anticipated. The high level of solar activity we saw earlier provoked blobs of sun stuff and a portion of all that solar material is headed our way and may provoke beautiful auroras. Also, after modeling and analysis, specialists found a component headed our way coming from the X1.3 flare we saw yesterday and the CME associated with this event. An arrival of this plasma may occur late on August 11 or early August 12 so a weekend with auroral activity is expected. Clear skies for you aurora chasers! Turning our head back to the sun, we noticed that all five active regions bearing the highest magnetic complexity, a beta-gamma-delta, all decayed, and today, only AR3777 and AR3780 show a beta-gamma configuration. The rest show alpha or beta configurations. Flaring activity during our observation period was high and we saw more M flares than Cs. Read all the information below. Stay tuned.

Last 24 hours: Eleven M flares in the past day make sun activity maintain a high level. During our observation period between 11 UTC yesterday and 11 UTC today, solar flare production was 17 flares in total. We saw more M flares than Cs. M flare production of the period was 11 Ms while C flare production was 6 Cs. The largest was an M5.3 at 2:37 UTC on August 10 from AR3780. The event provoked a long duration R2 (moderate) radio blackout that affected an area over the Philippine Sea. This is the list of M flares for the period:
• M1.2 at 11:17 UTC on August 9 from AR3780. R1 (minor) radio blackout over Algeria.
• M1.4 at 12.06 UTC on August 9 from AR3780. R1 (minor) radio blackout over Morocco.
• M1.0 at 12:43 UTC on August 9 from AR3781. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean off the west coast of Africa.
• M1.0 at 12.59 UTC on August 9 from AR3780. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean off the northwest coast of Africa.
• M1.0 at 20:37 UTC on August 9 from AR3779. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean.
• M4.6 at 21:23 UTC on August 9 from AR3774. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean east of Hawaii.
• M2.9 at 22.03 UTC on August 9 from incoming region NE. R1 (minor) radio blackout over Hawaii.
• M1.1 at 23:50 UTC on August 9 from AR3780. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean off the west coast of Hawaii.
• M1.3 at 1:02 UTC on August 10 from AR3780. R1 (minor) radio blackout over west Pacific Ocean.
• M5.3 at 2:37 UTC on August 10 from AR3780. R2 (moderate) radio blackout over the Philippine Sea. The Largest.
• M1.6 at 4:11 UTC on August 10 from AR3780. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the South China Sea.
Active region AR3780 blasted out 10 flares. Out of its 10 flares, seven were M flares and the rest were Cs, so the title for lead flare producer goes to this sunspot region. Today, the sun bears nine active regions on the Earth-facing side. A newcomer in the northeast limb (edge) is now labeled AR3784. This one has been flaring since yesterday, even before getting a number. Yesterday, this newcomer shared honors of lead flare producer along with sunspot region AR3780. By the way, AR3780 continues growing and is the largest in extension on the Earth-facing solar disk. It has grown to an area of approximately 8 Earths, still visible from Earth without magnification, as long as you wear the correct eye protection.

Next 24 hours: The chance for C flares is 99%. The chance for M flares is 80%. The chance for X flares is 30%.

Next expected CME: Analysis of the X1.3 flare event and the coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with it, show an arrival of solar stuff at Earth on late August 11 or early August 12.

Current geomagnetic activity: Earth’s magnetic field is quiet at the time of this writing (11 UTC on August 10).  G1 to G2 (minor to moderate) geomagnetic storm is expected late today extended through August 11 as the anticipated multiple CMEs hurled by the sun on August 8 arrive at Earth. Clear skies for you aurora hunters.

August 9, 2024 @ 20:40 UTC
Below is a look at the visible solar disk on Sunday. Solar activity during the past 24 hours was at moderate levels with only a couple of low level M-Flares detected. AR 3780 remains the main source of activity with AR 3777 chipping in with minor C-Flares as well. A few new sunspot regions appear to be forming and will be monitored. Moderate M-Flares will remain a possibility for the remainder of the day with a lower chance for a major X-Flare.
A reminder that a moderate (G2) geomagnetic storm watch remains in effect. A coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the X1.3 solar flare on August 8th is predicted to pass Earth sometime within the next 12 hours.

Woah!! And there she is!! At Alix Alberta. #aurora #TeamTanner @treetanner @TamithaSkov @chunder10 @AuroraNotify pic.twitter.com/aeiIhUxyei

Dar Tanner  (@dartanner) August 11, 2024

https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates/

Sun news August 11: Auroras, more tonight, maybe tomorrow

Today’s top story:  Happy Sun Day! Higher latitudes experienced some auroras last night, as expected, and more geomagnetic activity is expected today into tomorrow August 12, through August 13. A detailed prediction has been challenging for analysts due to the complex barrage of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) leaving the sun from around August 8 until yesterday, August 10. Current flare activity has settled down to moderate, but there could be more on the horizon as helioseismology is indicating several larger magnetic regions on the non-Earth facing side. Keep your aurora hats on for at least tonight and possibly tomorrow night. We are already experiencing a G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm and expect G1 to G2 (minor to moderate) geomagnetic storms through August 12. Stay tuned for more news!

Last 24 hours: Sun activity is moderate with four M flares during our observation period between 11 UTC yesterday and 11 UTC today. The total flare production was 20, four M, and 16 C flares. The largest event was an M1.3 at 14:39 UTC on August 10 from AR3780. It caused an R1 (minor) radio blackout that affected an area over Asia. The list of M flares for the period:
• M1.3 at 14:39 UTC on August 10 from AR3780. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean.
• M1.2 at 15:16 UTC on August 10 from AR3782. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean.
• M1.1 at 00:31 UTC on August 11 from AR3780. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean.
• M1.6 at 05:28 UTC on August 11 from AR3780. R1 (minor) radio blackout over Asia.
Active region AR3780 produced 11 flares including 3 of the 4 m flares. The sun has seven sunspot regions. Most of the regions on the disk are stable or in decay. AR3780 is the only region that has retained its delta region with a beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexity. The region remains the largest in size. Several new regions observed via helioseismology may soon rotate into view.
Active region AR3780 blasted out 11 flares. Out of its 11 flares, seven were M flares and the rest were Cs, so the title for lead flare producer goes to this sunspot region. Today, the sun bears nine active regions on the Earth-facing side. A newcomer in the northeast limb (edge) is now labeled AR3784. This one has been flaring since yesterday, even before getting a number. Yesterday, this newcomer shared honors of lead flare producer along with sunspot region AR3780. By the way, AR3780 continues growing and is the largest in extension on the Earth-facing solar disk. It has grown to an area of approximately 8 Earths, still visible from Earth without magnification, as long as you wear the correct eye protection.

Next 24 hours: The chance for C flares is 99%. The chance for M flares is 80%. The chance for X flares is 30%.

Next expected CME: The overall summary of expected coronal mass ejections (CMEs) Earth-directed is highly uncertain and challenging. At least 7 CMEs left the sun over August 8-10. As mentioned previously, the X1.1 flare had an associated CME expected early tomorrow, August 12. The M4.6 and M5.3 flares from yesterday also had associated Earth-directed CMEs that should reach Earth later on August 12 into August 13. NOAA analyzed a set of at least 5 CMEs the first of which missed us yesterday and the next two may be the cause of the current G1 geomagnetic storm.

Current geomagnetic activity: Earth’s magnetic field is experiencing a G1 geomagnetic storm at the time of this writing (11 UTC on August 11). This G1 to G2 (minor to moderate) geomagnetic storm up to a G2 is expected to continue through today, August 11 into August 12 with the continued arrival of the the anticipated multiple CMEs hurled by the sun on August 8. Clear skies for you aurora hunters. Quiet to active conditions are expected August 13 as the CMEs dissipate.

https://spaceweather.com/

ONE CME HAS ARRIVED, MORE TO COME: A CME struck Earth on Aug. 10th (1230 UT), but the impact was weak and it did not cause a geomagnetic storm. At least two more CMEs are on the way. Their arrival on Aug. 11th and 12th could cause G2-class geomagnetic storms. CME Impact alerts: SMS Text

THE PERSEID METEOR SHOWER IS HAPPENING: Earth is passing through a stream of debris from Comet Swift-Tuttle, source of the annual Perseid meteor shower. Forecasters say the shower will peak tonight, Aug. 11-12, with dozens of bright meteors per hour visible from dark-sky sites. The best time to look is during the dark hours between midnight and dawn on Monday morning. [observing tips]

August 12, 2024 @ 01:55 UTC (UPDATED)
Moderate (G2) geomagnetic storming observed thanks to ongoing CME effects within the solar wind stream environment. Plasma density and speed are at enhanced levels and the Bz/IMF component continues to periodically point south. Should the Bz remain tipped south for a period of several hours, strong (G3) storm conditions could be observed, but this is not for certain. Aurora sky watchers at middle to high latitudes should be alert once dark outside.
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2024 Aug 12 0057 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

One of the strongest showings so far, for those hoping to see the lights hopefully this isn't the peak for tonight.

Getting a good show here in MN.

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Wow! Just a few min ago:

That's directly overhead.
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Camera never really captures how magical it is when overhead like that. Makes you 'feel' like the earth is moving through it like a ship.

Was only able to catch a glimpse of it here, unfortunately a neighbor's son decided to piss off the police and the whole neighborhood was blocked off with them doing searches through backyards.

I could see it in NC!

I stayed up pretty late tonight to watch the meteors and hopefully get some photos of them, and had no idea this was happening. Got an unexpected aurora light show for about 20 minutes from about 0210 to 0230.

Will post photos later. Going to bed for now.