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Posted: 5/31/2024 10:55:13 AM EST
Let's survey the entire economic wasteland panorama, Gold hit $2400, 1oz American Gold Eagles selling for $2500 on Fleabay.

Real estate is nuts. Both rental and buying.  1 bedroom condominiums sell for $300-400K in large metro areas like NoVA. Tiny, about 800sq feet.

Jobs are easy to find and fake 'money' keeps flowing, it's just that the government scrip doesn't buy anything, and one needs increasingly more of these paper tokens (money substitutes) to buy anything.
Inflation is far worse than they admit, everyone knows that, everything is up 30% since 2020.

Buy a 450K house over 30 years and end up paying 500K in interest.  What most people don't understand is the the banks create fiat money out of nothing, and kind of pretend to loan. Almost all of 500K interest is generated out of nothing and costs them nothing, then they collect payments on it. It's fraud to the Nth degree.

Oh, and the icing on the cake this money creation is self-evidently inflationary and contributes to  the overall money devaluation and inflation.

I am watching youtube videos how to construct a house out  of 40-foot long containers.  Zero debt. Gotta buy land somewhere. If I can't buy with cash, I can't buy it. Banks won't get a cent from me.

My long-term economic prognosic is not optimistic, it will get far worse, economically before things return to sanity (some kind of a polymetallic precious metals standard) but it appears that the Greenback has to hyperinflate first. There is no plan to pay off the debt.  It's an impossibility. The only possible way is debasement of the currency.  The insiders know this but have a diferent message for the masses. Things are about to go exponential.  Interest payments will hit 2 trillion  soon.

I think there are foundational pieces for a economic tsunami of stupendous dimensions.  You_can't_stop_what's_coming.gif

Link Posted: 5/31/2024 11:03:20 AM EST
[#1]
You forgot to mention that once you manage to purchase some property with zero debt, the rising real estate market prices will drive the taxes up to the point that you still can’t afford to keep it.
Link Posted: 5/31/2024 11:33:31 AM EST
[#2]
Don’t build a shipping container house. They are great for secure storage and just ok for a weekend cabin type place but not great for an actual house.

You can build a small cabin for much less if you are willing to do a lot of the work.

Don't let the doom and gloom get you down. Figure out how to profit from this mess. Lots of people will lose money. Some, will profit from it.
Link Posted: 5/31/2024 1:06:26 PM EST
[#3]
Significant inflation is a huge issue that is not being successfully addressed that's for sure, but IMHO we are still a ways off from "hyperinflation."  The can will be continue to be kicked down the road because everyone still has their phones, internet, and fast food.
Link Posted: 5/31/2024 1:29:40 PM EST
[#4]
How long before we are back in a late 80s early 90s lifestyle?

I am afraid I won't make it.
Link Posted: 5/31/2024 1:32:31 PM EST
[#5]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:  The can will be continue to be kicked down the road because everyone still has their phones, internet, and fast food.
View Quote


Do they really still all have those things?  I'm privy to a number of applicants for the company I now work for.  A higher number than you would ever guess are telling us that they don't have cell service (when asked for a number to be able to contact them) because it has gotten too expensive.  They rely on wi-fi hot spots and or buy minutes as they can.  Fast food will now set you back $40+ for a family of four.  There are a lot of people really being bitten hard by that insane inflation the media doesn't want to tell you about....
Link Posted: 5/31/2024 1:51:28 PM EST
[#6]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


Do they really still all have those things?  I'm privy to a number of applicants for the company I now work for.  A higher number than you would ever guess are telling us that they don't have cell service (when asked for a number to be able to contact them) because it has gotten too expensive.  They rely on wi-fi hot spots and or buy minutes as they can.  Fast food will now set you back $40+ for a family of four.  There are a lot of people really being bitten hard by that insane inflation the media doesn't want to tell you about....
View Quote



I know a lot of people who don’t spend money on a cell phone plan and just use public WiFi and things like Facebook calling using public WiFi. Most get a LOT of welfare dollars. That said, it’s not totally a terrible way to save money either! Free WiFi is everywhere.
Link Posted: 5/31/2024 3:00:47 PM EST
[#7]
Once you realize that it is all by design, it makes sense.
Destroy the middle class and put all the non elites in mass transit, communal housing and they will happily eat their insect ration.
Link Posted: 5/31/2024 3:01:06 PM EST
[#8]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Don’t build a shipping container house. They are great for secure storage and just ok for a weekend cabin type place but not great for an actual house.

You can build a small cabin for much less if you are willing to do a lot of the work.

Don't let the doom and gloom get you down. Figure out how to profit from this mess. Lots of people will lose money. Some, will profit from it.
View Quote


You are right. I think the shipping container youtube people were just stunts, something different and curious, kind of a click-bait, but maybe not practical for everyone. I don't know what to do. I gravitate between customizing a shuttle bus, or a cabin, or something. It is clear that owning some viable land where things can grow, with water is the very minimum.
There is a paradigm shift coming.
Link Posted: 5/31/2024 3:06:45 PM EST
[#9]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Significant inflation is a huge issue that is not being successfully addressed that's for sure, but IMHO we are still a ways off from "hyperinflation."  The can will be continue to be kicked down the road because everyone still has their phones, internet, and fast food.
View Quote


The point is that TSHTF - already.

We don't have the true big picture of things, each of us looks at things in short segments. From the time we came of age to today, is a very short interval. If you look at the last half century or more, it's very clear what is going on. Housing prices are a fraction of a million.  Think about that deeper. It's normalcy bias. We lived with it for a while and adjusted, adapted and even benefited - short term, but long-term it is a disaster.  I found a newspaper from 1933, under the carpet of a house getting remodeled, looking at the prices there was shocking. Like renting a room for $5/week. It hit, here and now.  You can have hyperinflation and lose everything instantly or achieve the same thing over 30 years. We have the latter.
Today is just a nanosecond in the long stream of devaluation.  Picture where things will be 10 or 20 years from now.

The thing that makes you wealthy is not a lot of zeroes on a piece of currency but the purchasing power.  That's what people don't understand, who scream for $15/hour or what the number du jour is.
Link Posted: 5/31/2024 3:08:35 PM EST
[#10]
All of this shit is about getting the US to default on our debt...all of it. It's the only thing that sets us apart from anywhere else...we've never defaulted on our debt.  Until then capitol will flow to the US/DOW because we are the least shitty place for money to flow.

The Fed keeping rates higher for longer is the only thing keeping us from more inflation....but eventually more inflation will come.

Prepare accordingly.
The 4th Turning is here...
Link Posted: 5/31/2024 4:28:38 PM EST
[#11]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


You are right. I think the shipping container youtube people were just stunts, something different and curious, kind of a click-bait, but maybe not practical for everyone. I don't know what to do. I gravitate between customizing a shuttle bus, or a cabin, or something. It is clear that owning some viable land where things can grow, with water is the very minimum.
There is a paradigm shift coming.
View Quote




Do you have building skills? Willing to learn? Got a piece of dirt to build on?

There are all kinds of neat ideas out there. A simple slab home, well insulated, with metal siding and metal roof would be ideal. Unfortunately, property taxes are a thing BUT….research what raises the value of a property….and avoid as much as possible. Friend of mine owns a shop house. Not my preference to live in but he loves his. Where he lives, property taxes can be high but his house is classified as a shop with a bathroom….so his property taxes are a fraction of what others pay. I don’t prefer his type of place but he’s making it work for him and saving thousands in the process.

Link Posted: 5/31/2024 6:22:18 PM EST
[#12]
I am not ruling out other countries at all, to retire in.  Eastern Europe maybe.  They have some stunning prices. If one can work remotely. There is a new paradigm.

If I am going to move to rural Texas to buy a 10-acre homestead, or hours away from any major metro area, I might as well move to another country and buy that much more with the money. I mean both are off the grid and a million miles from the mainstream society. It's like that place in NM, or the slabs in California.

Deep down I am tired of being interconnected to society with so many of its hooks into me and it enforcing a certain behavior it expects, so it can grade you appropriately, like a social score.  

Taos, NM

OFF THE GRID: Life On The Mesa Trailer



Slab City
Inside Slab City, The Lawless city in the Desert | Last Free Place In America


Not saying the above is what entices me, just contrasting it with the social norm. There are other alternatives. I am definitely not buying a 400K "house" with a 500K interest payment on it over decades. I see it basically as slavery.

Link Posted: 5/31/2024 6:47:57 PM EST
[#13]
https://www.ar15.com/forums/Outdoors/Better-LATE-than-never--FOUR-Years-in-Idaho-/19-694998/

Here's another thread on another forum for inspiration. Hasn't been updated in years but still neat to see what he accomplished.  

https://countryplans.com/smf/index.php?topic=9259.0
Link Posted: 5/31/2024 7:22:25 PM EST
[#14]
Another thing....don't panic.  Yes things don't look good.  But, people rarely benefit by making rash, panic ridden decisions. Careful planning will always beat panicked decision making.  

Relax!  The world isn't ending.  Personally, I'm planning for a bad future but also enjoying the present.
Link Posted: 5/31/2024 7:23:34 PM EST
[#15]
It is refreshing to see people think outside of the box. And not become debt-slaves for the rest of their lives.
Link Posted: 5/31/2024 9:47:02 PM EST
[#16]
As the others have said, depending on the level of calamity, there will be opportunities. Folks that are in debt up to their eyeballs will be looking to unload their assets to cover their liabilities. For some it will be toys like motorcycles, boats and vehicles. For others it may be real estate or businesses. This will put downward pressure on everything temporarily and this is where you get your best deal. Just make sure you have your ducks in a row and be ready to make deals happen on the fly.
Link Posted: 6/1/2024 12:11:37 AM EST
[#17]
Yes, losing buying power sucks, and yes, federal debt is getting out of control.  That said, it's not the end.  The world keeps spinning.  Some people get poorer while others get richer.  We are likely to have some sort of financial depression in your or your kid's lifetime.  That's not great, but you don't have to go all doomsday prepper to be ready for it.  Save and invest smartly.  Don't have an extravagant lifestyle.  Don't take on stupid debt.  Have some hobbies/skills that reduce your need to buy stuff.  If you are in a sound financial situation, are prepped for common emergencies, and are at least partially self-sufficient--bad times will be an annoyance rather than a debilitating crisis.
Link Posted: 6/1/2024 8:00:42 AM EST
[#18]
Link Posted: 6/1/2024 9:47:33 AM EST
[#19]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Another thing....don't panic.  Yes things don't look good.  But, people rarely benefit by making rash, panic ridden decisions. Careful planning will always beat panicked decision making.  

Relax!  The world isn't ending.  Personally, I'm planning for a bad future but also enjoying the present.
View Quote


+1
Link Posted: 6/1/2024 9:53:49 AM EST
[#20]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
I am not ruling out other countries at all, to retire in.  Eastern Europe maybe.  They have some stunning prices. If one can work remotely. There is a new paradigm.

View Quote
Retiring in Eastern Europe on the possible eve of WWIII doesn't seem like a good move historically.



Link Posted: 6/1/2024 10:02:31 AM EST
[#21]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Don’t build a shipping container house. They are great for secure storage and just ok for a weekend cabin type place but not great for an actual house.

You can build a small cabin for much less if you are willing to do a lot of the work.

Don't let the doom and gloom get you down. Figure out how to profit from this mess. Lots of people will lose money. Some, will profit from it.
View Quote



Shipping container houses will be a big thing if they aren't already.  They have advantages over a regular how - namely, they are cheap to start with, a solid structure already that is dried in, can be moved easily.  They aren't straight forward as to how to build but not really hard to get something liveable.  Also depends on what you are looking for.  A container 40 footer is 320 square feet but probably more like 280 once you insulate.  There are many options for this, and you can even build a tiny home with a loft if you start with a 9" container rather than 8".  People can live on much much less than most folks thinks is necessary.   For 20K you can make one livable right now, with a good bit of work.  I have insulated one for a shed, it would be easy to add in whatever needed for 2 people to comfortably live in.  Total I have in this is about 7K for the container with a steel door installed + a window, and about 2K for insulation, and lots of sweat labor figuring out how to insulate.  

A small cabin is also another good option, depends what resources you have available and what skills you have.  Container was easier for me at the time, but I'd love to do a cabin also.

and yes, there will always people who can profit out of any situation, be that person.
Link Posted: 6/1/2024 11:00:12 AM EST
[#22]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:



Shipping container houses will be a big thing if they aren't already.  They have advantages over a regular how - namely, they are cheap to start with, a solid structure already that is dried in, can be moved easily.  They aren't straight forward as to how to build but not really hard to get something liveable.  Also depends on what you are looking for.  A container 40 footer is 320 square feet but probably more like 280 once you insulate.  There are many options for this, and you can even build a tiny home with a loft if you start with a 9" container rather than 8".  People can live on much much less than most folks thinks is necessary.   For 20K you can make one livable right now, with a good bit of work.  I have insulated one for a shed, it would be easy to add in whatever needed for 2 people to comfortably live in.  Total I have in this is about 7K for the container with a steel door installed + a window, and about 2K for insulation, and lots of sweat labor figuring out how to insulate.  

A small cabin is also another good option, depends what resources you have available and what skills you have.  Container was easier for me at the time, but I'd love to do a cabin also.

and yes, there will always people who can profit out of any situation, be that person.
View Quote



Shipping container houses, if you want to live in one like a normal house, will not be cheaper to build out than a conventionally framed house. Plus, you are limited to 8 ft widths. You can put them side by side and frame between them….but then you are right back to conventional framing. For a small weekend getaway place….yes I think you could do one for the same or less than conventional framing….but it will be small.  Kind of like living in a camper.

I love seeing what people have done with shipping container houses but would never build one for a primary residence. For a short term place….sure. Out of necessity….of course. As my primary plan… no.

That said, I am bringing in dirt and building up a pad for a 20ft shipping container. Planning on painting it to match the shop and then putting a roof over it. It’s going to be secure storage for a side by side, ATVs and winter storage for a mower. I’ll use the outside for ladder storage and we will put some light seasonal decoration boxes on top. Looking forward to having the extra storage and more room inside my shop.
Link Posted: 6/1/2024 11:37:38 AM EST
[#23]
Link Posted: 6/1/2024 12:17:15 PM EST
[#24]
Link Posted: 6/1/2024 6:30:47 PM EST
[#25]
At the flea market today I bought a bunch of stuff for $0.25 and $1. More than usual. I bought approximately 120 number size drill bits for $20.

On the flip side the folks living on SS or retirement seem to be trying to squeeze every penny from everything they sell.

I'm not sure it hasn't always been this way. It seems like some folks are liquidating stuff like crazy.
Link Posted: 6/1/2024 8:58:57 PM EST
[#26]
It's already hit, lots just haven't noticed yet
Link Posted: 6/2/2024 6:35:32 AM EST
[#27]
Link Posted: 6/2/2024 11:52:50 AM EST
[#28]
Link Posted: 6/2/2024 2:25:33 PM EST
[#29]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
I own 55 rental properties in an old-line rust belt city.  My client base is "blue collar to no collar" or working class down to permanent multi-generational welfare.  Some of these may surprise people who never dealt with housing people in these classes, but all signs point to problems.

Those who work nearly always aren't in careers to do work from home.  That means driving.  Fuel costs remain ugly and car repairs can bankrupt them due to living paycheck to paycheck.  I am starting to see more "unique" vehicle repairs and more fluid stains in my parking lots and driveways as they go without repairs.

The ralph count is low.  After drinking holidays like St. Patricks, Memorial Day, Fourth of July, Labor Day, New Years, etc., I count the puke piles on my properties.  More is better because that means they have money for booze.  Less is a bad sign because they don't have money for booze.  If they have money for booze, they're doing decent economically.  This year I found only one.  I haven't had that low of a ralph count since 2008.

Litter talks.  In good times, I see more name brand cigarette packaging and butts, cigarillo packaging and butts (Swisher Sweets), etc.  Now I'm seeing zero cigarette cartons.  Name-brand cigarette packs have been replaced by off-brand and weird stuff I've never heard of before, and there are fewer of them.  But since the number of butts is constant, they're buying loosies on the corner.  Cigarillos have gone from packs to single or doubles from odd brands soaked in weird flavors to disguise the garbage tobacco.  I've watched a few have to hollow them out versus buying pre-made blunts, and they're carefully scooping up the tobacco for re-use versus letting it blow away in the wind.  And even that's less necessary now because they're having trouble affording or justifying even the crappiest ditch weed pot.  

The donation area in my apartment buildings is picked over.  In every apartment building, I keep a closet for tenants to put decent stuff they don't want.  This keeps the dumpsters from filling up (I pay for trash in 3+ or 4+ buildings depending on the municipality).  It also helps the tenants; if they're not financially stressed, rent gets paid on time or at least not as late as it would otherwise.  In good times, these areas fill up and nobody looks through them.  In lean times, they're popular and watched like hawks.  Right now they're all very popular and multiple tenants are watching them like hawks.  I've found two tenants keeping lists of wants for family and friends, which I haven't seen since 2008.

Scams and funny business involving responsibility for utilities is up again.  I'm seeing more "forgetting" to put the power, gas, etc., into their name.  Now they must provide evidence that they did so at move-in, and I no longer am set up for auto-switching into my name when there's a move-out.  This is because some switch it "early" or "the power company made an error" or.....

More tenants than normal are approaching me to see if I need odd jobs done.

Work is getting harder to find and the pay increases of 2021-forward are fading.  My skilled tenants (dump truck driver, backhoe operator, skilled factory work, etc.) are fine but watching their pennies.  My totally unskilled ones without GEDs / high school diplomas are struggling.

I'm beginning to see multi-generational household formation.  This is normally the province of my hispanic tenants with three generations under one roof.  Now I'm seeing it among all of my tenants.

Violence is up.  Previously it was just the normal post-2020 dEfUnD tHe PoLiCe BS.  Now I'm seeing more domestic violence, child abuse, drug and alcohol abuse (different from partying on holidays / ralph count), police visits to arrest for petty to moderate financial and property crimes like garage break-ins, auto theft, shoplifting, vending and laundry machine break-ins, stealing from junk and scrap yards, selling food without a license, fencing, etc.

Pennies and spare change isn't left laying around or just thrown from cars anymore.  Normally I find a few hundred in spare change annually.  This year I'm not seeing that nearly as much; maybe I'll only find $50-$100 this year.

Finally, while rent growth has been healthy, I'm seeing signs of a pause or plateau.  Unfortunately, government is a few years behind and is suddenly getting the idea that it's time to raise taxes.  My properties were reassessed with an increase averaging 83%.  (No, I wish I was joking.)  Assessed value isn't the mill rate, but I know what's coming.  This will lead to more rent increases which will further destabilize these tenants and create more "social problems" that'll land in taxpayer laps.
View Quote


Anecdotal here as well, but the industrial scrap company asked for an outside of contract monthly concession of 10% early in the year and was just “caught” playing f-f games with the scale.  Monthly scrap check is $250K+ and the scale recently came in about 40% light.
Link Posted: 6/2/2024 3:30:07 PM EST
[#30]
Kids are increasingly declining to go into trade type work. Mechanics, plumbers, electricians etc. While I think that bodes well for young people who choose to go into that kind of work, it also means prices to HIRE that kind of work will go up…and probably a lot. We have seen trade type work prices increase a lot and I don’t think we are anywhere near where the prices will rise to.

So….if you don’t have handyman/mechanic type  skills and tools, you need to get those things now. The more you know the less you will pay to have the work done for you.
Link Posted: 6/2/2024 3:31:44 PM EST
[#31]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
I own 55 rental properties in an old-line rust belt city.  My client base is "blue collar to no collar" or working class down to permanent multi-generational welfare.  Some of these may surprise people who never dealt with housing people in these classes, but all signs point to problems.

Those who work nearly always aren't in careers to do work from home.  That means driving.  Fuel costs remain ugly and car repairs can bankrupt them due to living paycheck to paycheck.  I am starting to see more "unique" vehicle repairs and more fluid stains in my parking lots and driveways as they go without repairs.

The ralph count is low.  After drinking holidays like St. Patricks, Memorial Day, Fourth of July, Labor Day, New Years, etc., I count the puke piles on my properties.  More is better because that means they have money for booze.  Less is a bad sign because they don't have money for booze.  If they have money for booze, they're doing decent economically.  This year I found only one.  I haven't had that low of a ralph count since 2008.

Litter talks.  In good times, I see more name brand cigarette packaging and butts, cigarillo packaging and butts (Swisher Sweets), etc.  Now I'm seeing zero cigarette cartons.  Name-brand cigarette packs have been replaced by off-brand and weird stuff I've never heard of before, and there are fewer of them.  But since the number of butts is constant, they're buying loosies on the corner.  Cigarillos have gone from packs to single or doubles from odd brands soaked in weird flavors to disguise the garbage tobacco.  I've watched a few have to hollow them out versus buying pre-made blunts, and they're carefully scooping up the tobacco for re-use versus letting it blow away in the wind.  And even that's less necessary now because they're having trouble affording or justifying even the crappiest ditch weed pot.  

The donation area in my apartment buildings is picked over.  In every apartment building, I keep a closet for tenants to put decent stuff they don't want.  This keeps the dumpsters from filling up (I pay for trash in 3+ or 4+ buildings depending on the municipality).  It also helps the tenants; if they're not financially stressed, rent gets paid on time or at least not as late as it would otherwise.  In good times, these areas fill up and nobody looks through them.  In lean times, they're popular and watched like hawks.  Right now they're all very popular and multiple tenants are watching them like hawks.  I've found two tenants keeping lists of wants for family and friends, which I haven't seen since 2008.

Scams and funny business involving responsibility for utilities is up again.  I'm seeing more "forgetting" to put the power, gas, etc., into their name.  Now they must provide evidence that they did so at move-in, and I no longer am set up for auto-switching into my name when there's a move-out.  This is because some switch it "early" or "the power company made an error" or.....

More tenants than normal are approaching me to see if I need odd jobs done.

Work is getting harder to find and the pay increases of 2021-forward are fading.  My skilled tenants (dump truck driver, backhoe operator, skilled factory work, etc.) are fine but watching their pennies.  My totally unskilled ones without GEDs / high school diplomas are struggling.

I'm beginning to see multi-generational household formation.  This is normally the province of my hispanic tenants with three generations under one roof.  Now I'm seeing it among all of my tenants.

Violence is up.  Previously it was just the normal post-2020 dEfUnD tHe PoLiCe BS.  Now I'm seeing more domestic violence, child abuse, drug and alcohol abuse (different from partying on holidays / ralph count), police visits to arrest for petty to moderate financial and property crimes like garage break-ins, auto theft, shoplifting, vending and laundry machine break-ins, stealing from junk and scrap yards, selling food without a license, fencing, etc.

Pennies and spare change isn't left laying around or just thrown from cars anymore.  Normally I find a few hundred in spare change annually.  This year I'm not seeing that nearly as much; maybe I'll only find $50-$100 this year.

Finally, while rent growth has been healthy, I'm seeing signs of a pause or plateau.  Unfortunately, government is a few years behind and is suddenly getting the idea that it's time to raise taxes.  My properties were reassessed with an increase averaging 83%.  (No, I wish I was joking.)  Assessed value isn't the mill rate, but I know what's coming.  This will lead to more rent increases which will further destabilize these tenants and create more "social problems" that'll land in taxpayer laps.
View Quote




Interesting observations. Thanks for posting!
Link Posted: 6/2/2024 5:31:36 PM EST
[#32]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


Anecdotal here as well, but the industrial scrap company asked for an outside of contract monthly concession of 10% early in the year and was just “caught” playing f-f games with the scale.  Monthly scrap check is $250K+ and the scale recently came in about 40% light.
View Quote


Perhaps I am misunderstanding you.  You are sending that much scrap, and do not have a personal scale yourself to weigh out what you are sending, or don't send one of your trucks over a commercial scale every once in a while to verify weight?
Link Posted: 6/2/2024 5:40:09 PM EST
[#33]
Quoted:
Inflation is far worse than they admit, everyone knows that, everything is up 30% since 2020.
View Quote


1.  Factually, you are wrong.  Everything is not up 30% since 2020.  Some things are.

2.  Do you not understand the difference between the reported numbers (which are reported as Year over Year for the current month, and Month over Month) and cumulative inflation over time?
Link Posted: 6/3/2024 3:55:03 AM EST
[#34]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Retiring in Eastern Europe on the possible eve of WWIII doesn't seem like a good move historically.



View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
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Quoted:
Quoted:
I am not ruling out other countries at all, to retire in.  Eastern Europe maybe.  They have some stunning prices. If one can work remotely. There is a new paradigm.

Retiring in Eastern Europe on the possible eve of WWIII doesn't seem like a good move historically.





I am currently in NoVA (DC area). It can't be any more dangerous than that.  You know, Kremlin inspired demonstrations about Let's nuke the "Center of Decision-making" Re: Russo-Ukraine war. DC is absolutely not safe from any angle.
Picking a property in rural Carpathian Mountains either in Ukraine or Moldova or even Slovakia that's all yours; the bang per buck goes a lot further.

I am not sure what the point is in isolating myself in rural Idaho or TX or such in a homestead type place. Yeah, it has benefits but also serious liabilities. It's like you negate all culture around you and in the middle of nowhere, life can be very expensive. No social scene. Or a few like-minded survivalists who are generally not very sociable. Every man for himself.
The prospect seems depressing.
I remain convinced US is headed for a major economic collapse. Not that it's a bad thing, it's kind of corrective in its essence.
Link Posted: 6/3/2024 3:57:48 AM EST
[#35]
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Quoted:



Shipping container houses, if you want to live in one like a normal house, will not be cheaper to build out than a conventionally framed house. Plus, you are limited to 8 ft widths. You can put them side by side and frame between them….but then you are right back to conventional framing. For a small weekend getaway place….yes I think you could do one for the same or less than conventional framing….but it will be small.  Kind of like living in a camper.

I love seeing what people have done with shipping container houses but would never build one for a primary residence. For a short term place….sure. Out of necessity….of course. As my primary plan… no.

That said, I am bringing in dirt and building up a pad for a 20ft shipping container. Planning on painting it to match the shop and then putting a roof over it. It’s going to be secure storage for a side by side, ATVs and winter storage for a mower. I’ll use the outside for ladder storage and we will put some light seasonal decoration boxes on top. Looking forward to having the extra storage and more room inside my shop.
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This makes sense. I would like to build a cabin one day. Have it somewhat uncoventional. Kind of a yurt-shape. Round with one big room in it. Open space design. I don't think a 8' space would appease me for long. AS a storage space, seems great.
Link Posted: 6/3/2024 4:04:51 AM EST
[#36]
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Quoted:
I own 55 rental properties in an old-line rust belt city.  My client base is "blue collar to no collar" or working class down to permanent multi-generational welfare.  Some of these may surprise people who never dealt with housing people in these classes, but all signs point to problems.

Those who work nearly always aren't in careers to do work from home.  That means driving.  Fuel costs remain ugly and car repairs can bankrupt them due to living paycheck to paycheck.  I am starting to see more "unique" vehicle repairs and more fluid stains in my parking lots and driveways as they go without repairs.

. . . .
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what a fascinating report from the trenches, thanks for sharing that.
Link Posted: 6/3/2024 4:09:39 AM EST
[#37]
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Quoted:

My parents were both hard workers and saved what money they could.  Just before their retirement, they bought some very rural acreage at a very good price.  Without any debt, the idea was build a little at a time to where when they do retire they could move in. . . .



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I've seen people do this and one couple regretted it. They bought a country place and built themselves, no debt and it took them 15 or so years and still isn't complete. Now they are saying they wish they had purchased a plug-and-play place without spending their precious few last years on the project which drained them. They are in the 70's now.
It does not highlight / take into consideration the value of time, in conjuction with when you are no longer 29 and don't have much of it.
It think they started the project in their early/mid 50s.  

Link Posted: 6/3/2024 5:47:41 AM EST
[#38]
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Quoted:


I am currently in NoVA (DC area). It can't be any more dangerous than that.  You know, Kremlin inspired demonstrations about Let's nuke the "Center of Decision-making" Re: Russo-Ukraine war. DC is absolutely not safe from any angle.
Picking a property in rural Carpathian Mountains either in Ukraine or Moldova or even Slovakia that's all yours; the bang per buck goes a lot further.

I am not sure what the point is in isolating myself in rural Idaho or TX or such in a homestead type place. Yeah, it has benefits but also serious liabilities. It's like you negate all culture around you and in the middle of nowhere, life can be very expensive. No social scene. Or a few like-minded survivalists who are generally not very sociable. Every man for himself.
The prospect seems depressing.
I remain convinced US is headed for a major economic collapse. Not that it's a bad thing, it's kind of corrective in its essence.
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The last place I would want to be to avoid conflict would be Eastern Europe. I’ve spent time there. It’s a neat area. I would NEVER place that as my survival destination. Wars have ravaged Europe since the dawn of time. Historically, North America is one of the safest places if you want to avoid conflict. There’s a conflict going on in Ukraine now……

Don’t look for survivalists. Yes many are weird and anti social. Look for a rural place with farmers and country people. Many people in those areas will be closet survivalists. BUT….to integrate into an area like that you MUST assimilate. I’ve heard people say you will always be an outsider in a tight rural area. I don’t agree but you must adapt if you want to become an “insider”. Dont ever say “back in NOVA we did it this way”. Learn to be friendly. Your new neighbors will come and visit you. They will ask what you might consider to be very personal questions. They don’t mean anything bad….rural people are tight knit and you will be too….if you become like them. If you are standoffish (like you probably are where you are now) you will struggle to integrate. When your neighbors animals get out, you call them and then go help them put them back in. If they aren’t home, you put them in for them and the patch the fence for them. If a storm blows down tree limbs in the road, you don’t call 911….you grab your chainsaw and go clear the road. Rural areas have a HUGE social scene.  But, its very different way of socializing than you are used to.  A lot of social activities revolve around church. Local sporting events are a big thing and also a time to socialize. Breakfast at the local dinner is where you may sit with locals and chat about things. Stop in at the neighborhood hardware store or even Walmart and you might want to not be in a hurry as neighbors and friends will want to talk and visit when you see them.  If you want to live that lifestyle, you have to adapt to that lifestyle.

If you think integrating into rural America is difficult, imagine integrating into a different culture with different food, different language, etc. You’ll forever be known as “the American”.

America is not like NOVA.

If nukes are flying into the DC area, the world is in serious trouble and Eastern Europe is the absolute LAST place I’d want to be.

Economic troubles will always happen. But, if you look at history….they all end. Countries don’t typically disappear because they go through hard times. Read some history. Puts things into perspective.
Link Posted: 6/3/2024 5:54:12 AM EST
[#39]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


This makes sense. I would like to build a cabin one day. Have it somewhat uncoventional. Kind of a yurt-shape. Round with one big room in it. Open space design. I don't think a 8' space would appease me for long. AS a storage space, seems great.
View Quote




Yurts are neat but wasteful of space. There is a reason most houses are built with right angles and square or rectangle shape.

Cheapest house design is square or rectangle with simple (gable) roof lines.
Link Posted: 6/3/2024 5:57:40 AM EST
[#40]
Link Posted: 6/3/2024 6:11:12 AM EST
[#41]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


Perhaps I am misunderstanding you.  You are sending that much scrap, and do not have a personal scale yourself to weigh out what you are sending, or don't send one of your trucks over a commercial scale every once in a while to verify weight?
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Yes, old family owned business that you would know.  The volumes are actual accounted for via raw material purchases and production rates.  Everything is more detailed than the scale could offer.
Link Posted: 6/3/2024 8:07:01 AM EST
[#42]
Link Posted: 6/3/2024 8:28:17 AM EST
[#43]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


Nice how the people responsible for inflation get to pick how inflation is measured.   It's pissing down the peoples back and telling them it's raining.  

Here's a dose of reality. Based on TN numbers not evacuating north ghetto cities.  

Housing up 100%
Home Insurance up 100%
Property tax 100%
Meat up 100%
Gas up 30%  My area it was $1.82 a gallon.  Now $3.30.  
Mortgage rates 100%
Automobiles 50%  
Travel 30%
Other groceries 18%
Gold 2020 was $1,770 oz and now it's $2,500 oz.  I guess according to Bidenomics they got this wrong and must be price gouging.  

I don't know how much your budget is on those very little inflation products but to a kid just starting life, it's a show stopper.  

Tj
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Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Inflation is far worse than they admit, everyone knows that, everything is up 30% since 2020.


1.  Factually, you are wrong.  Everything is not up 30% since 2020.  Some things are.

2.  Do you not understand the difference between the reported numbers (which are reported as Year over Year for the current month, and Month over Month) and cumulative inflation over time?


Nice how the people responsible for inflation get to pick how inflation is measured.   It's pissing down the peoples back and telling them it's raining.  

Here's a dose of reality. Based on TN numbers not evacuating north ghetto cities.  

Housing up 100%
Home Insurance up 100%
Property tax 100%
Meat up 100%
Gas up 30%  My area it was $1.82 a gallon.  Now $3.30.  
Mortgage rates 100%
Automobiles 50%  
Travel 30%
Other groceries 18%
Gold 2020 was $1,770 oz and now it's $2,500 oz.  I guess according to Bidenomics they got this wrong and must be price gouging.  

I don't know how much your budget is on those very little inflation products but to a kid just starting life, it's a show stopper.  

Tj


Here - from June 2020:

Housing up 60%
Home Insurance up 75% (shocking, insurance costs go up as values go up)
Property tax up ZERO%.  While my property values have increased, from 2020 to today - my actual tax is the same.  It went down substantially last year.  Inflation adjusted, property taxes have dropped significantly for me.
Meat up maybe 15% (I still buy ground beef, roasts, steaks on sale for the same price they were 4 years ago, and have proven this over and over)  Beef is also cyclical.  But inflation adjusted, beef is cheaper now.
Gas up 100%.  However, terrible data point, because June 2020 was at a 15 year low in a cyclical commodity.   Gas is MUCH cheaper now than it was in 2011-2014, and adjusted for inflation it is right in line with prices 20 years ago.
Mortgage rates 100%  Also - kinda stilly, because artificially suppressed all-time lows for mortgage rates were part of what caused this mess.  Mortgage rates are back to 50 year historical means.... a healthy level.
Automobiles 50%.  Nope - MSRP on a F150 SCREW XLT 5.5 was $40,000.  Today in 2024 that's $50,000.  Sorry - that is not 50%.  That's 25%.  Pretty much in line (just over) 4-year *cumulative* inflation.

Link Posted: 6/3/2024 8:33:23 AM EST
[#44]
Companies aren't hurting like they're claiming. Several people close to me have had a shit time trying to find a job.
Link Posted: 6/3/2024 9:11:26 AM EST
[#45]
Everything is more expensive, and I believe that that the trend will continue overtime, and while it could happen, I think the odds of a one-day dollar collapse at least currently are low.  Instead, we are like the frog in a slowly warming pot of water.

Over the years, I have always done what I can to avoid paying someone else to do something for me.  On modern vehicles it's getting harder, but I still give it a go.  2017 Nissan Titan needed the fan clutch replaced.  It's my daily driver, and I don't like it being down for a lengthy time like my rat rod Honda civic.  If I need to work on my Honda for a week or two it doesn't bother me but not my truck.  This past Sunday I tackled the project.  Dealer quoted me about $700 to replace the fan clutch.  I ordered the part on rock auto for $160 shipped to my door and it took me about two hours to swap it out.  By doing the work myself I basically paid myself $270 per hour.  I don't have a garage, or a lift, but I do have a decent tool collection probably a bit beyond the average DIYer.

Attachment Attached File


Attachment Attached File


Attachment Attached File


Plastic fan shroud clips broke.  I spent longer than I should have trying to unclip them without breaking them but eventually gave up.

Attachment Attached File


It's just plastic, no need to spend extra money to buy some new plastic, drilled a couple holes and secured the fan shroud with zip ties.  Its more secure than with the loose-fitting snap in clips.

Attachment Attached File


Why am I posting this?  Well because tackling projects yourself, not paying someone $700 to do a 2-hour job puts money back in your own pocket.  Same thing with stuff around the house, basic repairs, none of it is hard but it does take some effort and elbow grease.

Times are getting tougher, do what you can to mitigate the outflow of your cash.
Link Posted: 6/3/2024 9:15:55 AM EST
[#46]
Yeah comparing gas to 2020 is pointless. 2020 was artificially low due to COVID silliness induced lack of demand.  I paid $2.89 yesterday for regular. In Sept 2022 I paid $3.39 for regular. Gas is also very volatile in pricing.  

Beef is similar priced….maybe 10% higher but beef prices are somewhat volatile.

Insurance costs are indeed going up. My home insurance is up about 50% but car insurance isn’t up nearly that much. Maybe 15% for car insurance.

Food overall is up but not horrible. We shop more sales and places like Aldi and Sam’s and Costco so not too much higher. I’d estimate we are paying 15% more than 2-3 years ago.

Restaurants are WAY up so we just eat out less often. I’d guess close to double in the past 2-3 years.

Utility prices for us have remained pretty stable till this year when our power company added a demand charge. So, for us that amounted to about 20% increase.

Haven’t purchased any vehicles for quite awhile although we will be in the next year or so. Prices appear to be falling now although we’ll see how low they will go.

Home prices are definitely WAY up but we aren’t buying a home so don’t care about that.

Overall, I believe the true inflation rate when everything is calculated is higher than the official numbers but in our case, it’s not really affecting us. We have gotten pretty good pay raises the past few years so that has offset the increases for us. I could see some of these prices really affecting those on fixed incomes. Good reason to avoid most debt for most people and not to go into retirement with any debt (in most cases). It’s tough to calculate the true costs of inflation because some of the things we buy have such wide swings due to supply and demand.
Link Posted: 6/3/2024 9:18:09 AM EST
[#47]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Everything is more expensive, and I believe that that the trend will continue overtime, and while it could happen, I think the odds of a one-day dollar collapse at least currently are low.  Instead, we are like the frog in a slowly warming pot of water.

Over the years, I have always done what I can to avoid paying someone else to do something for me.  On modern vehicles it's getting harder, but I still give it a go.  2017 Nissan Titan needed the fan clutch replaced.  It's my daily driver, and I don't like it being down for a lengthy time like my rat rod Honda civic.  If I need to work on my Honda for a week or two it doesn't bother me but not my truck.  This past Sunday I tackled the project.  Dealer quoted me about $700 to replace the fan clutch.  I ordered the part on rock auto for $160 shipped to my door and it took me about two hours to swap it out.  By doing the work myself I basically paid myself $270 per hour.  I don't have a garage, or a lift, but I do have a decent tool collection probably a bit beyond the average DIYer.

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/140266/e272b983-d11b-4b70-9d9d-a6d2b4d68f4a_jpg-3231062.JPG

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/140266/d398ac8d-fba4-45b9-b368-9f963bd7b2b0_jpg-3231063.JPG

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/140266/0ef6e912-89a3-4570-bf20-82517d761aab_jpg-3231064.JPG

Plastic fan shroud clips broke.  I spent longer than I should have trying to unclip them without breaking them but eventually gave up.

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/140266/542b224b-475a-48e9-81ef-c87abfcac050_jpg-3231065.JPG

It's just plastic, no need to spend extra money to buy some new plastic, drilled a couple holes and secured the fan shroud with zip ties.  Its more secure than with the loose-fitting snap in clips.

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/140266/4520dce5-b350-4e06-9162-ae91a71cae30_jpg-3231066.JPG

Why am I posting this?  Well because tackling projects yourself, not paying someone $700 to do a 2-hour job puts money back in your own pocket.  Same thing with stuff around the house, basic repairs, none of it is hard but it does take some effort and elbow grease.

Times are getting tougher, do what you can to mitigate the outflow of your cash.
View Quote



I agree. Costs for skilled blue collar type labor are skyrocketing. I repair all my own stuff so it doesn’t affect me one bit. I do like the fact it’s easy to justify buying more tools though!!
Link Posted: 6/3/2024 9:45:46 AM EST
[#48]
Link Posted: 6/3/2024 12:11:24 PM EST
[#49]
I'd say that for the average person we are in Economic TSHTF:

Can You Guess What It Costs To Live "The American Dream" After 3 Years Of Inflation Under Joe Biden?

Illinois was ranked 26th on that list, and so it provides a pretty good snapshot of what the average U.S. household is facing right now…

   Median home price: $255,278

   Annual childcare costs: $24,174

   Annual mortgage costs: $21,401

   Car costs: $8,709

   Grocery costs: $8,143

   Healthcare costs: $7,021

   Utilities costs: $5,278

   Education costs: $2,475

   Pet costs: $1,170

   Total annual costs: $78,369

   Full cost of the American Dream: $156,739

Did your household bring in at least $150,000 last year?

If not, living “the American Dream” would not be possible for you in most states.

Needless to say, the vast majority of U.S. households are not bringing in that kind of income.

Last December, Investopedia issued a report that concluded that it now takes 3.4 million dollars to live “the American Dream” for an entire lifetime…

   Another report, released in December by the financial media site Investopedia, estimates what the American Dream costs across an entire lifetime: $3.4 million.

   That is a staggering sum, Investopedia observes, considering what the average American earns in a lifetime: about $2.3 million.

Housing costs are the number one reason why “the American Dream” is now out of reach for most of the U.S. population.
View Quote
Link Posted: 6/3/2024 12:21:45 PM EST
[#50]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
I'd say that for the average person we are in Economic TSHTF:

Can You Guess What It Costs To Live "The American Dream" After 3 Years Of Inflation Under Joe Biden?

View Quote




My costs are a fraction of that. But, I don’t live in IL either.

https://www.gobankingrates.com/money/economy/true-cost-american-dream-every-state/
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