Posted: 10/28/2025 3:32:00 PM EDT
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This Army sponsored Report from 2016 is I think a very useful look at operating at night: Link to PDF |
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You have to dig a little for the lingo, but essentially they are showing with the older NVG/laser-illuminators (called Aiming Lights/AL) that probability of hits drops off dramatically after 150m, and is very low after 200m. Attached File Nice comparison of hit probability at distance between different aiming systems: Attached File CCO =M68 close combat optic/Aimpoint CompM2 (CCO) TWS = Thermal Weapon Sight Against a fullsize standing silhouette (E-target) at 300m the average soldiers probability of hit using an Aimpoint is only 50% This is looking at 2 different courses of Rifle fire. Depending on the course only 7-to-10% of soldiers were hitting Expert: Attached File The Probability of kill is defined as 1-to-3 hits depending on the target. Attached File At 150m and beyond these are fullsize standing silhouettes (E-target). It suggests the you'd be pretty safe behind cover at 300m unless you were up against an Expert. |
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Part of this is due to zero technique. They'll shoot on the offset paper target and like daylight zero will never confirm on a KD range at true distance. A rough coincident zero at 25 Meters should get you a close-enough intersection at 150 (on an E-type target) to contact meat. NOT good enough to guarantee an easy head shot at 200. |
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"Only three Soldiers who were interviewed, all Experts, indicated they kept track of the exact number of rounds fired and that they tried to conserve ammunition. Soldiers who indicated they were not aware they would run out of ammunition were those classified as Unqualified. Other Soldiers who ran out of ammunition indicated they were aware this would happen, but typically indicated they kept shooting because they wanted to hit the target. Soldiers’ recommendations were to focus on the fundamentals, such as sight picture, malfunction procedures, and breathing. The recommendation by one Soldier to “keep the same sight picture and be able to do this quickly and instinctively” is particularly relevant to the CFF scenario. Other comments were that not rushing shots and learning to transition between targets contributed to success. In addition, Soldiers who did well in the first iteration were able to verbalize how they could improve the second time. That was not the case for those who scored poorly. The complexity and multiple demands made by CFF seemed to overwhelm them and they could not describe what they needed to focus on in order to improve their performance on the second iteration." "training for CFF should focus on skill integration. For example, instead of practicing on just the motor skills necessary to change a magazine rapidly, a Soldier should practice changing magazines from a concealed position, followed by assuming a stable firing position and reacquiring a good sight picture. Dry-fire practice from a barricade enabled Soldiers to learn how to establish a good firing position including one that enabled them to scan their entire sector of fire. Soldiers must make decisions regarding their firing strategy, e.g., which target in the array do they engage first, do they fire another round if they miss the target, do they keep firing if they miss or use rounds for another target. They must also they keep scanning to detect targets which require more than one hit." |
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