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Posted: 2/23/2016 8:17:42 PM EDT
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I started collecting MG back in early 90s.
At that time I wasn't aware of its potential value and honestly didn't care much. Machineguns were cheap and plentiful... felt like supply will never dry. Over the last a few years MG price went up considerably, and it's becoming harder and harder to find one especially the sears. I don't see multiple DIAS listed on major sites like sturm or subgun anymore and people usually fighting hard to get one at any given price. Used to see 5~8 MP5s with sear listed at the same time but not any more... same goes to FNC sears. What's going on? Rich people buying them all up for sole investment purpose? People getting afraid of future availability and just sitting on them? |
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From 1992 till now the population of the U.S. has grown from 256M to 320M. 64M more people, a certain percentage of which are chasing a fixed number (about 182,000+) of transferable machine guns. Fixed supply and increased number of people creating a demand.
It seems a lot more MG sales are now being done without the aid of internet advertising. Rather, by "networking". MHO, YMMV, etc. |
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In the early 90s there were still piles of sears and guns available, essentially still new in box, without a lot of corresponding demand. Pretty much anybody could send in a gun to Fred Vollmer or Curtis Higgins and have their semi's converted to a machinegun.
I got involved in the late 90s and even then there were still lots of NIB machineguns and sears available. M11s were available by the pallet if you wanted, thousands of Uzi's were available from Vector, Tilotta had a pile DIASs, Oefinger had tubes/plates/packs/AKs, etc. By the mid 2000s most of those large stashes of new old stock guns and sears had started to dry up just as the public interest in the AR15/black rifle market stated to take off with the sunset of the 94 assault weapon ban. Many of those same folks who bought their first AR15 in the mid-2000s were educated via the internet about transferable machineguns and there was a ton of easy credit terms out there for folks to chase prices upward. As the prices for machineguns continued to climb the average socio-economic background of those purchasing them climbed as well. In general machineguns don't really require much of any care or feeding, have no real recurring costs if you don't shoot them, don't really degrade or go bad, never get replaced by a new/better models (since those new models are banned), and in general go up in value. You can pretty much lock them in a safe in your basement for years and not lift a finger or spend a dime and they will be waiting for you whenever you crack open the safe. So other than funding other toys there isn't a lot of other reasons for folks to sell. I would also presume that as more and more affluent folks purchase the guns/sears that are available, the average amount turnover diminishes since the odds of guns needing to be sold off to fund other normal life events declines the higher up the economic ladder new owners go. |
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Regardless of the increase in value I hold onto my MGs because it's such a major PIA to transfer them.
Once I sell one I'm likely never to replace it. If it was easy to buy and sell, I'd think there'd be more mgs trading hands. I might sell some once I figure I won't regret it. |
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Increasing population, were talking like 50+ million more people in the US over the last few decades
Fixed or decreasing number of transferable MGs Baby boomers hitting retirement and cashing out their 401ks. Whats the difference between buying a $50k corvette or a $50k M60 MG or a bass boat, small plane, etc...they have the time, the money and the wife just wants to get them out of the house. And of course the internet has been a huge catalyst. 20 years ago very few people knew anything about MGs or the NFA. Know you can find thousands of sites, posts, blogs and videos talking about it and walking you through every step. There are lawyers specializing in trusts and answering questions. The NRA is now pro NFA, at least fort SBRs and Suppressors and while they may not be pro-MGs at the moment it but if you know the process for buyings a suppressor buying a MG is just as easy. Assuming the laws dont change, they will just go up in value. I really dont think the NFA is going to be repealed and i doubt there is support or any reason to "ban" MG considering theyre already technically illegal to own aside from a handful of the grandfathered transferables. |
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Sears are scarce because with few exceptions, those who own them are likely sufficiently financially solvent that they don't "need" to sell. Personally, even if I lose interest in shooting fullauto I will not likely sell my MGs due to their continued appreciation. Why sell if you aren't in dire need of the funds? Better to hold and sell when you need to (i.e. estate planning, etc).
The lion share of transferables coming up for sale seem to be from estates and/or collectors who bought long long ago, have multiple samples of each gun/sear, are aging and may either lack heirs, have heirs who are disinterested in MGs, or have heirs who are frankly anti-gun. Selling in these cases is a form of estate planning. In the case of estates or individuals who bought long ago and have many items to sell, it is far easier to sell/consign with a dealer or put up to auction rather than post individual items themselves. So unless a buyer knows one of these individuals, the items are likely to be sold through a dealer or auction house. |
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The frequency that stuff sells depends on how "precious" the owner thinks it is.
As these guns get more expensive, the owners tend to be less of the happy-go-lucky shooter types and more of the serious-minded collector type. Hardcore collectors look at their possessions as being very precious and do not like to sell. Also, the harder it is to buy something, the less collectors will want to sell. Who wants to sell an FNC sear and then never be able to find one on the market again? So the scarcity feeds itself, the more scarce, the less are willing to sell. As far as the prices go, I blame the internet. There are 24/7 videos of MGs on youtube. If there was a girl with a giant rack in your high school class in 1983, maybe 1000 people would know her name. Nowadays, if she puts a video on youtube, 100 million people will know her name. The internet is the biggest thing since the printing press was invented. you cannot underestimate the effect of every shooter in the country going on youtube and watching guys with Thompsons ripping through a 100 round drum or a guy shooting a suppressed UZI. That's like a billion dollars worth of free advertising. As far as the NFA registry opening up to new guns, that will happen when 51% of the voters in the USA all want it to happen. Which is never. |
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I think the prices will top out when they get so high that new buyers are priced out of the market that's pretty obvious when m16s are selling for $50k each, a lot of guys will just say fuck it and walk away Based on current appreciation rate I think it's not too far away. 
Yeah, I blame on YOUTUBE with endless full-auto videos...
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I think the prices will top out when they get so high that new buyers are priced out of the market that's pretty obvious when m16s are selling for $50k each, a lot of guys will just say fuck it and walk away Someone else can afford it. I am 1 Powerball win away from buying EVERY mg that hits the market. Seriously. Be thankful right now some billionaire has not decided to spend $100M to own the MG market. If I was a biliionaire, I would. I have .com millionaire friends who had 0 MGs in 2000, have 50+ today. Along with autos, that seems to be where many folks I know put their disposable income. Boats, travel, McMansions are not their thing. Even on this forum we have members who had nothing 5 years ago, and have $250K collection right now. |
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Based on current appreciation rate I think it's not too far away.
Yeah, I blame on YOUTUBE with endless full-auto videos... Quoted:
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I think the prices will top out when they get so high that new buyers are priced out of the market that's pretty obvious when m16s are selling for $50k each, a lot of guys will just say fuck it and walk away Based on current appreciation rate I think it's not too far away.
Yeah, I blame on YOUTUBE with endless full-auto videos... The rate of appreciation over the last 10-15 years has been around 7% That would put most colt M16s RR and RDIAS in the $50k range in less than 10 years and around 15 years for non-colt RR and RLL Personally I dont think there is really a limit. 20 years ago no one could have fathomed a $10,000 MG, 10 years ago a $20,000 was crazy talk yet looks where the prices are today. 20 years from now we could see people dropping $100k on a M16 like its nothing. People complain about the price of MGs yet a good portion of the members here could sell off just a couple ARs and some accessories and be able to afford a MAC10 or other entry level MG. I have a friends who shoots a lot and is baffled that I paid so much for my M16 yet his collection of toys includes two motor cycles, a jet ski, a bass boat and a camero is his garage, he could sell any one of those vehicles/vessels and afford a MG. It would also be the only thing he owns that isnt depreciating in value, heck the yearly total depreciating value of all his toys is probably close to a entry level MG...every single year... Quoted:
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I think the prices will top out when they get so high that new buyers are priced out of the market that's pretty obvious when m16s are selling for $50k each, a lot of guys will just say fuck it and walk away Someone else can afford it. I am 1 Powerball win away from buying EVERY mg that hits the market. Seriously. Be thankful right now some billionaire has not decided to spend $100M to own the MG market. If I was a biliionaire, I would. I have .com millionaire friends who had 0 MGs in 2000, have 50+ today. Along with autos, that seems to be where many folks I know put their disposable income. Boats, travel, McMansions are not their thing. Even on this forum we have members who had nothing 5 years ago, and have $250K collection right now. Probably closer to a billion dollars to buy the whole market but still if some multi-millionaire or a random lotto winner entered the market they could really drive up prices quick. At any given time there cant be more than maybe 50-100 MGs for sale across the entire united states. Here are some of the top websites with MG listings, if you go through them all you will often notice that one gun will be listed on a half dozen or more websites, which creates a false sense of how many MGs are actually for sale. http://www.sturmgewehr.com http://www.shootersdepot.com http://www.atfmachinegun.com http://www.autoweapons.com http://www.impactguns.com http://www.subguns.com http://www.onlythebestfirearms.com http://www.davidspiwak.com http://dealernfa.com http://www.gunbroker.com http://www.nfasales.com http://www.classiiidealers.com/ http://www.westernfirearms.com/ http://www.collectorsfirearms.com/class-iii-full-auto/ http://www.urban-armory.com/ http://www.ar15.com/forums/f_7/118_NFA_Firearms_andamp__Parts.html Also as others have said its getting to the point where certain MGs specifically sears cant be found anywhere, at any price. Heck the reason i bought my RR was because after 3 months of looking for a LL i gave up and just bought the cheapest RR i could find, i watched after i bought and it was almost a month after that that a LL finally showed up for sale and it sold for almost as much as what i paid for the RR. |
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The whole market does not come up for sale. All those sites you listed, all the MGs ever listed on them is probably less than 1% of the market. Quoted:
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Probably closer to a billion dollars to buy the whole market . The whole market does not come up for sale. All those sites you listed, all the MGs ever listed on them is probably less than 1% of the market. Yes true, one millionaire could easily buy up everything currently sale with ease. |
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The whole market does not come up for sale. All those sites you listed, all the MGs ever listed on them is probably less than 1% of the market. Quoted:
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Probably closer to a billion dollars to buy the whole market . The whole market does not come up for sale. All those sites you listed, all the MGs ever listed on them is probably less than 1% of the market. In August, 2007, the total number of transferable machine guns was 182,619 per the BATFE. About 30 were later rescinded because of the number transfer scheme, and I would guess a few have been stolen, lost in fires, damaged beyond repair, etc. and will never be recovered (some stolen ones might get recovered). So the total now is probably somewhere over 182,500, and 1 % of the total market is about 1,825. |
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In August, 2007, the total number of transferable machine guns was 182,619 per the BATFE. About 30 were later rescinded because of the number transfer scheme, and I would guess a few have been stolen, lost in fires, damaged beyond repair, etc. and will never be recovered (some stolen ones might get recovered). So the total now is probably somewhere over 182,500, and 1 % of the total market is about 1,825. Quoted:
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Probably closer to a billion dollars to buy the whole market . The whole market does not come up for sale. All those sites you listed, all the MGs ever listed on them is probably less than 1% of the market. In August, 2007, the total number of transferable machine guns was 182,619 per the BATFE. About 30 were later rescinded because of the number transfer scheme, and I would guess a few have been stolen, lost in fires, damaged beyond repair, etc. and will never be recovered (some stolen ones might get recovered). So the total now is probably somewhere over 182,500, and 1 % of the total market is about 1,825. Over half of all transferable are said to be owned by law enforcement departments, gov agencies (like department of energy) or private contractors. But no one really knows for sure other than the ATF/IRS who keep the records and i doubt they are about to release that info to the public. The only thing that is certain is there are a fixed number of them and they are becoming increasingly rare due to increased awareness about NFA ownership and people who are buying them at a frantic rate be it for investment, personal enjoyment, w/e it may be. |
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higher prices come from increased demand increased demand comes from more new buyers entering the marketplace MG ownership has gone from a tiny unknown niche market to the hottest high end gun collector market tens of thousands of potential new buyers have entered the marketplace and driven the prices up sky high are there enough rich guys out there to keep pumping the prices up forever? maybe, but only because the supply of MGs is so small I think you're going to see a leveling off of prices as the prices reach the ionosphere but who knows? we shall see |
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Who hasn't heard exactly the same thing more than once.
No one was ever going to pay $3000, then $5000, then $10,000, etc. for a West Hurley, MP5, MG42, etc., because they would simply never bring that much. Back around 1972, when someone paid just almost $10,000 for a new car, I thought he was nuts. But, today that car is probably some tiny screws in an I-phone. The other posters have it nailed; supply and demand. |
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From watching many collectible markets over the years, I notice markets peaks once the prices get so high that newcomers are priced out of the market and without new blood, the prices fall, often dramatically.
However, with NFA market, regular semi autos still provide an entry and interest into the market. I think prices top out once they get too valuable to shoot and its hard to find people willing to work on a $50k receiver for several hundred dollars. Not to mention the grief in shipping them. If you are a billionaire, you become best friends with your local sheriff at your ranch in Montana. You donate some money and shoot all the full autos you want. Or like I read on sturm, you buy yourself into a defense company and the sky is the limit. Or when visiting your private island, you and your 3rd world admiral buddies go blow some stuff up with an old frigate. |
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it's difficult to predict what is going to happen with MG prices
normally, you would compare MG prices to more mature collector markets like coins, stamps, antiques, guitars, collector cars the problem with the comparison is that the MG supply is so microscopic compared to those other collector markets the machinegunpriceguide.com website lists all the common MGs on just three pages a similar price guide for stamp collecting would be 1,000 pages long I guess the thing to do is compare MG prices to a small, high end segment of another collector market this website uses an index to track the value of various car collecting markets https://www.hagerty.com/apps/valuationtools/#!/market-trends pretty interesting the indexes are mostly zooming upwards, it's pretty amazing there really doesn't seem to be any limit to how high the prices go I've noticed that a lot of the high end MGs, like $45k Colt Thompsons, have stalled out, they are not increasing in price so I figured that was the point that the MG market would level off but maybe the market is just stalled there because the rest of the market is catching up when the price of WWII thompsons goes over $30k, it will start pushing the higher priced pre-war colts up |
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