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Posted: 1/11/2014 6:01:28 PM EDT
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is that out of line for a factory Colt 614?
built lower only (A1 stock w/SSF) would you sell if it were yours? |
| I have a feeling the nfa market will be going down accross the board if the cleo signoff is applied to entities. Economics 101 tells us if you lose half or more of your potential buyers, demand will slow. Never forget that past performance has little to do with the future. nfa has been a great investment... fact is the first time someone who bought an mg gets careless and lets thier disturbed son get ahold of it and shoot up a school or theater the whole thing is likely dome for. Overnight your mg can be declared non transferable except to law enforcement.... or worse yet contraband. Its a real risk... the only reason nfa exists still is because its off the radar of the vast majority of the general public. Id guess if polled, 90% would say mg's are already illegal for private ownership. In short, id own a cheaper mg and shoot it. I would not use nfa as a collectable, or investment. |
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I have a feeling the nfa market will be going down accross the board if the cleo signoff is applied to entities. Economics 101 tells us if you lose half or more of your potential buyers, demand will slow. Never forget that past performance has little to do with the future. nfa has been a great investment... fact is the first time someone who bought an mg gets careless and lets thier disturbed son get ahold of it and shoot up a school or theater the whole thing is likely dome for. Overnight your mg can be declared non transferable except to law enforcement.... or worse yet contraband. Its a real risk... the only reason nfa exists still is because its off the radar of the vast majority of the general public. Id guess if polled, 90% would say mg's are already illegal for private ownership. In short, id own a cheaper mg and shoot it. I would not use nfa as a collectable, or investment. We don't know how it will all turn out, but I'm concerned about possible new regs also. This whole trust thing has made it possible for thousands of people to buy MGs, SBRs, etc. CLEO signoff could hurt us all. I'm an example. 10 years ago I bought 2 Vector Uzis and a MAC10, mostly because I bought them under market value at the time (i.e., CHEAP). I had them transfered to a local class 3 dealer.. I then found out that we got a new CLEO (who we still have today) and he wouldn't signoff on anything.. I left the guns at my dealer for about a year and a half before finally selling them off. I did make some damn good money on those 3 guns, but never got to take one home and enjoy shooting it. I think today's high prices are due to all the demand (based on using trusts) and wonder what would happen to the market if most people couldn't bring their guns home. I also think people pay big money for MGs because they are fun to shoot AND have been a great investment. The only reason I have NFA today is because of my trust, and no need for CLEO signoff. my 2 cents, Rat |
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didn't realize CLEO signoff was such a big deal, practically a "shall issue" here.
someone offered to buy my gun & it's giving me cold sweats thinking about letting it go. but thinking about if something was to happen to it (KB, dropped & broken) and losing the gun that way has giving me sweats before to though, not to mention the money. not really about the money though. for the last 7 yrs. I have been a "machine gun owner" and seems almost is a part of my identity. not sure how I feel about not being one. I almost feel the need to "let it go on" to let others get the joy of having it. that is 1/2 the fun of ownership, popping someones full auto cherry. planned on keeping it & passing it down, but now I have 3 (2 boys) and not sure who'd get it outright. |
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I have a feeling the nfa market will be going down accross the board if the cleo signoff is applied to entities. Economics 101 tells us if you lose half or more of your potential buyers, demand will slow. Never forget that past performance has little to do with the future. nfa has been a great investment... fact is the first time someone who bought an mg gets careless and lets thier disturbed son get ahold of it and shoot up a school or theater the whole thing is likely dome for. Overnight your mg can be declared non transferable except to law enforcement.... or worse yet contraband. Its a real risk... the only reason nfa exists still is because its off the radar of the vast majority of the general public. Id guess if polled, 90% would say mg's are already illegal for private ownership. In short, id own a cheaper mg and shoot it. I would not use nfa as a collectable, or investment. I doubt transferable MGs are going to drop in price regardless of what happens with the CLEO sign offs for corporate/trust transfers. Several states have "shall sign" laws for NFA paperwork and plenty of CLEOs will sign; more than enough to support the transferable MG collector market. |
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I doubt transferable MGs are going to drop in price regardless of what happens with the CLEO sign offs for corporate/trust transfers. Several states have "shall sign" laws for NFA paperwork and plenty of CLEOs will sign; more than enough to support the transferable MG collector market. Quoted:
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I have a feeling the nfa market will be going down accross the board if the cleo signoff is applied to entities. Economics 101 tells us if you lose half or more of your potential buyers, demand will slow. Never forget that past performance has little to do with the future. nfa has been a great investment... fact is the first time someone who bought an mg gets careless and lets thier disturbed son get ahold of it and shoot up a school or theater the whole thing is likely dome for. Overnight your mg can be declared non transferable except to law enforcement.... or worse yet contraband. Its a real risk... the only reason nfa exists still is because its off the radar of the vast majority of the general public. Id guess if polled, 90% would say mg's are already illegal for private ownership. In short, id own a cheaper mg and shoot it. I would not use nfa as a collectable, or investment. I doubt transferable MGs are going to drop in price regardless of what happens with the CLEO sign offs for corporate/trust transfers. Several states have "shall sign" laws for NFA paperwork and plenty of CLEOs will sign; more than enough to support the transferable MG collector market. I respectfully disagree. Demand drives the price. Without the trust mechanism, the number of form 4s submitted will drop drastically. Before the trust thing started, my dealer wouldn't carry but a few used NFA items. Today they have a whole section of the store dedicated to suppressors, SBRs, and MGs. Without CLEO signoff, how long do you think they will continue to invest in that inventory? There is a fixed number of Transferable MGs, so prices won't drop like the housing or stock markets, but a serious correction is certain. |
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I respectfully disagree. Demand drives the price. Without the trust mechanism, the number of form 4s submitted will drop drastically. Before the trust thing started, my dealer wouldn't carry but a few used NFA items. Today they have a whole section of the store dedicated to suppressors, SBRs, and MGs. Without CLEO signoff, how long do you think they will continue to invest in that inventory? There is a fixed number of Transferable MGs, so prices won't drop like the housing or stock markets, but a serious correction is certain. Agree with this. A drop in demand, even if marginal (which I expect it will be more than that), will result in a drop in prices at least temporarily. This is going to be an interesting few months. If for instance the ATF decides to institute the change, in June and announces it in April, I see two types of sellers and buyers. The first type are going to be the "well, you better buy now crowd." These are the buyers who will continue to want to buy them at high prices, or maybe pay more, because they feel they won't be able to get one later. They'll probably figure that in their area, they wont get the signoff and so they had better buy it before they cant. There will also be sellers who attempt to mark their guns even higher with that in mind. Basically, "Well, I have the gun. if you want it before you can't get it, you better pay up." Then there are the other buyers and sellers who say "this is an asset that is about to take a hit in value; lets make a deal." The buyers realize that in a month or so, the value of the gun will drop most likely due to demand sliding. The buyers have no interest whatsoever in buying a gun for an inflated price and then seeing the value of it sink significantly within a few months. Over time it will rebound, but assuming they can get the sigh off, it makes sense to wait to buy. The sellers will realize that if they want to sell it within a future time frame of a few years, they probably should sell it before the change hits. Otherwise, when they cash out, they're not going to get nearly as much as they would. Now, I personally am searching for an HK sear right now. But I'm definitely part of the second set of buyers/sellers. I know I can get the signoff. Its inconvenient, but I can get it. Consequently, I have zero interest in paying an inflated price for the sear (or any other machine gun) right now. I see all the prices at the moment as artificially high and if this gets enacted like I think it might, I expect these prices to fall significantly in the short term. That's why I've set my budget below what some people might think is realistic. I've set it at a price which I believe is a compromise between buyer and seller in the market, which has volatility. I'm looking for the second type of seller if this get's announced. When buyer (a) and seller (a) get together or buyer (b) and seller (b) do, they'll be able to make deals. When they mix though, there won't be. Bottom line, my prediction is that if the regs are changed, there will be a price decrease of no less than 25% across the board on these things (aside from the really high end, rare stuff). Could be higher than that. If you want to sell, sell now. If you want to buy, don't unless its the right deal...don't overpay. |
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I respectfully disagree. Demand drives the price. Without the trust mechanism, the number of form 4s submitted will drop drastically. Before the trust thing started, my dealer wouldn't carry but a few used NFA items. Today they have a whole section of the store dedicated to suppressors, SBRs, and MGs. Without CLEO signoff, how long do you think they will continue to invest in that inventory? There is a fixed number of Transferable MGs, so prices won't drop like the housing or stock markets, but a serious correction is certain. Quoted:
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I have a feeling the nfa market will be going down accross the board if the cleo signoff is applied to entities. Economics 101 tells us if you lose half or more of your potential buyers, demand will slow. Never forget that past performance has little to do with the future. nfa has been a great investment... fact is the first time someone who bought an mg gets careless and lets thier disturbed son get ahold of it and shoot up a school or theater the whole thing is likely dome for. Overnight your mg can be declared non transferable except to law enforcement.... or worse yet contraband. Its a real risk... the only reason nfa exists still is because its off the radar of the vast majority of the general public. Id guess if polled, 90% would say mg's are already illegal for private ownership. In short, id own a cheaper mg and shoot it. I would not use nfa as a collectable, or investment. I doubt transferable MGs are going to drop in price regardless of what happens with the CLEO sign offs for corporate/trust transfers. Several states have "shall sign" laws for NFA paperwork and plenty of CLEOs will sign; more than enough to support the transferable MG collector market. I respectfully disagree. Demand drives the price. Without the trust mechanism, the number of form 4s submitted will drop drastically. Before the trust thing started, my dealer wouldn't carry but a few used NFA items. Today they have a whole section of the store dedicated to suppressors, SBRs, and MGs. Without CLEO signoff, how long do you think they will continue to invest in that inventory? There is a fixed number of Transferable MGs, so prices won't drop like the housing or stock markets, but a serious correction is certain. Even prior to trusts there was a thriving MG collector community with plenty of buyers. You need only look back to the old MG News forums, Vollmer's forums, Subguns, and Sturmgewehr. |
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Agree with this. A drop in demand, even if marginal (which I expect it will be more than that), will result in a drop in prices at least temporarily. This is going to be an interesting few months. If for instance the ATF decides to institute the change, in June and announces it in April, I see two types of sellers and buyers. When buyer (a) and seller (a) get together or buyer (b) and seller (b) do, they'll be able to make deals. When they mix though, there won't be. Bottom line, my prediction is that if the regs are changed, there will be a price decrease of no less than 25% across the board on these things (aside from the really high end, rare stuff). Could be higher than that. If you want to sell, sell now. If you want to buy, don't unless its the right deal...don't overpay. Quoted:
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I respectfully disagree. Demand drives the price. Without the trust mechanism, the number of form 4s submitted will drop drastically. Before the trust thing started, my dealer wouldn't carry but a few used NFA items. Today they have a whole section of the store dedicated to suppressors, SBRs, and MGs. Without CLEO signoff, how long do you think they will continue to invest in that inventory? There is a fixed number of Transferable MGs, so prices won't drop like the housing or stock markets, but a serious correction is certain. Agree with this. A drop in demand, even if marginal (which I expect it will be more than that), will result in a drop in prices at least temporarily. This is going to be an interesting few months. If for instance the ATF decides to institute the change, in June and announces it in April, I see two types of sellers and buyers. When buyer (a) and seller (a) get together or buyer (b) and seller (b) do, they'll be able to make deals. When they mix though, there won't be. Bottom line, my prediction is that if the regs are changed, there will be a price decrease of no less than 25% across the board on these things (aside from the really high end, rare stuff). Could be higher than that. If you want to sell, sell now. If you want to buy, don't unless its the right deal...don't overpay. I disagree the number of guns for sale is so small and the number of buyers is so high I don't picture even a small bump in the road the people who have MGs in the "no sign" zones will hang on to them even tighter, reduce the number of MGs being sold even more |
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the number of guns for sale is so small and the number of buyers is so high I don't picture even a small bump in the road the people who have MGs in the "no sign" zones will hang on to them even tighter, reduce the number of MGs being sold even more We did see a noticeable dip in prices in the '07-08 range due to the recession. These things aren't totally immune to basic supply and demand, even if they are fairly inelastic. I guess I don't really realize how many buyers there are for these things really? I mean, the population of the US is absolutely huge. But the percentage of people who 1) could afford one and 2) actually make buying one a priority has to be staggeringly low compared to the overall population. There are what, 250000 registered machine guns or something floating around out there? How many buyers could there possibly be for these? I mean, sure, there are people who buy multiple guns so the comparison isn't exactly perfect. I just see it as the CLEO thing cutting the amount of people able or willing to go through the hurdles for these by at least 30%, possibly higher. With that much of a dip in demand, combined with the fact that we're still in a recession, I just don't see the prices remaining where they are now. I'm not a financial expert by any means, but that's just where I'm coming from. |
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We did see a noticeable dip in prices in the '07-08 range due to the recession. These things aren't totally immune to basic supply and demand, even if they are fairly inelastic. I guess I don't really realize how many buyers there are for these things really? I mean, the population of the US is absolutely huge. But the percentage of people who 1) could afford one and 2) actually make buying one a priority has to be staggeringly low compared to the overall population. There are what, 250000 registered machine guns or something floating around out there? How many buyers could there possibly be for these? I mean, sure, there are people who buy multiple guns so the comparison isn't exactly perfect. I just see it as the CLEO thing cutting the amount of people able or willing to go through the hurdles for these by at least 30%, possibly higher. With that much of a dip in demand, combined with the fact that we're still in a recession, I just don't see the prices remaining where they are now. I'm not a financial expert by any means, but that's just where I'm coming from. Quoted:
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the number of guns for sale is so small and the number of buyers is so high I don't picture even a small bump in the road the people who have MGs in the "no sign" zones will hang on to them even tighter, reduce the number of MGs being sold even more We did see a noticeable dip in prices in the '07-08 range due to the recession. These things aren't totally immune to basic supply and demand, even if they are fairly inelastic. I guess I don't really realize how many buyers there are for these things really? I mean, the population of the US is absolutely huge. But the percentage of people who 1) could afford one and 2) actually make buying one a priority has to be staggeringly low compared to the overall population. There are what, 250000 registered machine guns or something floating around out there? How many buyers could there possibly be for these? I mean, sure, there are people who buy multiple guns so the comparison isn't exactly perfect. I just see it as the CLEO thing cutting the amount of people able or willing to go through the hurdles for these by at least 30%, possibly higher. With that much of a dip in demand, combined with the fact that we're still in a recession, I just don't see the prices remaining where they are now. I'm not a financial expert by any means, but that's just where I'm coming from. OK, David, suppose you want to buy a nice minty Colt M16A1 and you go shopping today. On this particular day there are exactly: Zero original Colt M16A1s for sale on gunbroker. None. Reuben has two for sale Subguns and sturm have like four total You knock out the ridiculously overpriced ones and that leaves two or three total. The entire USA shopping for M16A1s has on this day about 2 or 3 total M16A1s to choose from. That is a microscopic supply. Suppose you wanted to buy an FNC full auto sear. I count exactly zero for sale anywhere. Haven't seen one for sale in months. How many guys would buy an FNC sear if it came up for sale right now? 50? 100? There might be 150,000 NFA guns in the registry, but the ratio of buyers to sellers is so hugely lopsided that I don't think any 30% reduction of buyers would make a tiny bit a difference. |
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I follow your logic and I think you have a point. We'll have to hope it doesn't come up either way and that neither one of us find that out. One thing I forgot to put in there: The economy has been horrible for years now. Prices keep going up anyway. Prices of all other collector type stuff are down because people are afraid to make big purchases, but NFA stuff is going up every year anyway. |
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We did see a noticeable dip in prices in the '07-08 range due to the recession. These things aren't totally immune to basic supply and demand, even if they are fairly inelastic. I guess I don't really realize how many buyers there are for these things really? I mean, the population of the US is absolutely huge. But the percentage of people who 1) could afford one and 2) actually make buying one a priority has to be staggeringly low compared to the overall population. There are what, 250000 registered machine guns or something floating around out there? How many buyers could there possibly be for these? I mean, sure, there are people who buy multiple guns so the comparison isn't exactly perfect. I just see it as the CLEO thing cutting the amount of people able or willing to go through the hurdles for these by at least 30%, possibly higher. With that much of a dip in demand, combined with the fact that we're still in a recession, I just don't see the prices remaining where they are now. I'm not a financial expert by any means, but that's just where I'm coming from. Quoted:
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the number of guns for sale is so small and the number of buyers is so high I don't picture even a small bump in the road the people who have MGs in the "no sign" zones will hang on to them even tighter, reduce the number of MGs being sold even more We did see a noticeable dip in prices in the '07-08 range due to the recession. These things aren't totally immune to basic supply and demand, even if they are fairly inelastic. I guess I don't really realize how many buyers there are for these things really? I mean, the population of the US is absolutely huge. But the percentage of people who 1) could afford one and 2) actually make buying one a priority has to be staggeringly low compared to the overall population. There are what, 250000 registered machine guns or something floating around out there? How many buyers could there possibly be for these? I mean, sure, there are people who buy multiple guns so the comparison isn't exactly perfect. I just see it as the CLEO thing cutting the amount of people able or willing to go through the hurdles for these by at least 30%, possibly higher. With that much of a dip in demand, combined with the fact that we're still in a recession, I just don't see the prices remaining where they are now. I'm not a financial expert by any means, but that's just where I'm coming from. I started following the transferable MG market around 1995, so my experience is limited prior to that. My impression is that the dip in prices, which i think was more like 2008-2010, was a slight correction in the transferable market due to it being over-inflated during the period when easy money lax lending was occurring in the housing market. Prices sky rocketed. When credit dried up, less people bought and prices corrected to where they probably should have been all along. But they were still higher than they were just prior to the run on MG prices around 2002/2003. I think that if ATF 41P is implemented, we will not see prices drop. Instead, they will continue to increase, albeit at a slower rate and one probably more similar to the 1986-1998 timeframe. |
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I think that if ATF 41P is implemented, we will not see prices drop. Instead, they will continue to increase, albeit at a slower rate and one probably more similar to the 1986-1998 timeframe. I tend to agree, in that we will see a disinflation rather than an actual deflation in MG prices. I think a lot of this debate is really dependent on just how motivated buyers that use a trust are assuming 41P goes into effect. I say that because if NFATracker is any indication, the vast majority are using trusts. I see threads and posts all the time along the lines of "My CoP/sheriff won't sign...what can I do?". This leads me to believe that most folks don't know there are other officials they can seek the CLEO signature from. I realize there are certainly jurisdictions that are overtly anti-2A, but even in those locales I imagine some official could be found that would at least be equitable in terms of giving their signature. |
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I started following the transferable MG market around 1995, so my experience is limited prior to that. My impression is that the dip in prices, which i think was more like 2008-2010, was a slight correction in the transferable market due to it being over-inflated during the period when easy money lax lending was occurring in the housing market. Prices sky rocketed. When credit dried up, less people bought and prices corrected to where they probably should have been all along. But they were still higher than they were just prior to the run on MG prices around 2002/2003. I think that if ATF 41P is implemented, we will not see prices drop. Instead, they will continue to increase, albeit at a slower rate and one probably more similar to the 1986-1998 timeframe. Quoted:
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the number of guns for sale is so small and the number of buyers is so high I don't picture even a small bump in the road the people who have MGs in the "no sign" zones will hang on to them even tighter, reduce the number of MGs being sold even more We did see a noticeable dip in prices in the '07-08 range due to the recession. These things aren't totally immune to basic supply and demand, even if they are fairly inelastic. I guess I don't really realize how many buyers there are for these things really? I mean, the population of the US is absolutely huge. But the percentage of people who 1) could afford one and 2) actually make buying one a priority has to be staggeringly low compared to the overall population. There are what, 250000 registered machine guns or something floating around out there? How many buyers could there possibly be for these? I mean, sure, there are people who buy multiple guns so the comparison isn't exactly perfect. I just see it as the CLEO thing cutting the amount of people able or willing to go through the hurdles for these by at least 30%, possibly higher. With that much of a dip in demand, combined with the fact that we're still in a recession, I just don't see the prices remaining where they are now. I'm not a financial expert by any means, but that's just where I'm coming from. I started following the transferable MG market around 1995, so my experience is limited prior to that. My impression is that the dip in prices, which i think was more like 2008-2010, was a slight correction in the transferable market due to it being over-inflated during the period when easy money lax lending was occurring in the housing market. Prices sky rocketed. When credit dried up, less people bought and prices corrected to where they probably should have been all along. But they were still higher than they were just prior to the run on MG prices around 2002/2003. I think that if ATF 41P is implemented, we will not see prices drop. Instead, they will continue to increase, albeit at a slower rate and one probably more similar to the 1986-1998 timeframe. The global bank scam of 2005 caused a 25% decrease in the world money supply. That event caused a global depression, millions upon millions of people globally lost their job. Here in the states a giant shitload of people found themselves out of a job or underwater on their 3rd mortgage and had to sell off their speedboats and Harleys. That's what caused the dip in MG prices in 2009- 2010 or so. After the global bitch-slapping was over, MG prices shot right back up. What I wrote a few posts above is accurate - on this day you can count on the fingers of one hand the number of Colt M16A1s for sale on the US market. Less than 5 M16A1s available to 350 million people. That's not a market, it's a feeding frenzy. |
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The global bank scam of 2005 caused a 25% decrease in the world money supply. That event caused a global depression, millions upon millions of people globally lost their job. Here in the states a giant shitload of people found themselves out of a job or underwater on their 3rd mortgage and had to sell off their speedboats and Harleys. That's what caused the dip in MG prices in 2009- 2010 or so. After the global bitch-slapping was over, MG prices shot right back up. What I wrote a few posts above is accurate - on this day you can count on the fingers of one hand the number of Colt M16A1s for sale on the US market. Less than 5 M16A1s available to 350 million people. That's not a market, it's a feeding frenzy. Exactly. And during that global downturn the MG market made a very slight correction, with sales occurring all the while. The run on prices leading up to that period was absurd with prices increasing seemingly every week. After the downturn and MG prices dropped slightly, there were still many individuals buying and selling transferables. I know many people who were actively buying during the downturn. As for the number of any transferables available at any time, I think the boards are a poor index of this. Many people looking to buy have amassed a network of trusted dealers who they will call. I would be the internet forums represent a small fraction of the total sales volume for transferables. I know if I'm looking for something in particular, I don't start on the boards, I start by making phone calls. |
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In a fund or just trading around yourself? I need 60% returns damn... Quoted:
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Not going to buy one now since I am getting 60% returns every year for the last 3 years in the stock market. Will buy one in the future. In a fund or just trading around yourself? I need 60% returns damn... Just trading around myself. It's only been 11 trading days into the new year and I am already up 15.15%. I see alot of M16A1s and M16A2s in my future.
I know, pictures or it didn't happen.  </a>" />
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Just trading around myself. It's only been 11 trading days into the new year and I am already up 15.15%. I see alot of M16A1s and M16A2s in my future.
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Not going to buy one now since I am getting 60% returns every year for the last 3 years in the stock market. Will buy one in the future. In a fund or just trading around yourself? I need 60% returns damn... Just trading around myself. It's only been 11 trading days into the new year and I am already up 15.15%. I see alot of M16A1s and M16A2s in my future.
I'd like to subscribe to your newletter 
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FWIW, from discussions that were on the Subguns.com blog a few years ago, there's something over 187,000 transferrable machine guns on the registry. Something over 30,000 are believed to be "M16 pattern" guns - that includes the guns made and marked "M16" or M16A1 & A2", the earlier full-auto 601's and the like, the converted Colt SP-1s and the like and other non-Colt brands that were converted, the Group Industry factory made "M16s", the RDIASs, and LLs. (Likewise, there believed to be something over 30,000 of the "MAC" family of machine guns, most common being M11/9s).
I hope to be in the market for a Colt M16A1 in a few months to a year, so I'm hoping the price stays flat or drops. I expect that CLEO signoff should not be a problem for me. |
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What I have learned about the stock market I'm willing to share with all of you; Zippy the chimp can make out like a bandit when the market keeps rising.
Its like the song; "Know when to hold them and know when to fold them". I know personally a few "stock market geniuses" that bought on margin and were millionaires riding the market up pre 2008 that today are just trying to hang onto their modest home today. I have NO money in government Treasuries. There is no upside. Huge downside. Trying to cash in stock market equities now. Perhaps 25-50%. Where to put the money then ? I'm bought a HK mg and am looking at M-16's (among other things as I like to diversify) M16's are climbing while some other Mgs are staying level or falling. IMO it may because those that carried them back when (including myself) want one now as civilians. The Tommy gun market has leveled IMO because that generation is dying off. Just like Model T's vs muscle cars. |
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FWIW, from discussions that were on the Subguns.com blog a few years ago, there's something over 187,000 transferrable machine guns on the registry. Something over 30,000 are believed to be "M16 pattern" guns - that includes the guns made and marked "M16" or M16A1 & A2", the earlier full-auto 601's and the like, the converted Colt SP-1s and the like and other non-Colt brands that were converted, the Group Industry factory made "M16s", the RDIASs, and LLs. (Likewise, there believed to be something over 30,000 of the "MAC" family of machine guns, most common being M11/9s). I hope to be in the market for a Colt M16A1 in a few months to a year, so I'm hoping the price stays flat or drops. I expect that CLEO signoff should not be a problem for me. I wish somebody would do a serious guesstimate of all the different types of guns in the registry maybe just the top 10 or 15 types |
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What I have learned about the stock market I'm willing to share with all of you; Zippy the chimp can make out like a bandit when the market keeps rising. Its like the song; "Know when to hold them and know when to fold them". I know personally a few "stock market geniuses" that bought on margin and were millionaires riding the market up pre 2008 that today are just trying to hang onto their modest home today. I have NO money in government Treasuries. There is no upside. Huge downside. Trying to cash in stock market equities now. Perhaps 25-50%. Where to put the money then ? I'm bought a HK mg and am looking at M-16's (among other things as I like to diversify) M16's are climbing while some other Mgs are staying level or falling. IMO it may because those that carried them back when (including myself) want one now as civilians. The Tommy gun market has leveled IMO because that generation is dying off. Just like Model T's vs muscle cars. there is no doubt some truth to this the guys who grew up watching gangster movies are being replaced by the guys who grew up watching cheesy buddy cop movies on the other hand, I kind of don't think there are enough guns in the registry for it to really matter there are 10 buyers lined up for every gun out there |
| I'm just happy I have machine guns if the shit ever hit the fan, or they ended up being banned, I'll still have mine. Sure my investment will go to hell, but you're still in a very select/elite club of gun owners which gives me a warm fuzzy feeling. The talk of banning them has been around for as long as the GCA. All this stuff was said monthly since the 50's. If anyone was to take the naysayer's advice back then they would have lost an incredible investment opportunity. The truth is we will never know. But these things only come up for debate when we have a democrat in office. |
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I wish somebody would do a serious guesstimate of all the different types of guns in the registry maybe just the top 10 or 15 types Quoted:
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FWIW, from discussions that were on the Subguns.com blog a few years ago, there's something over 187,000 transferrable machine guns on the registry. Something over 30,000 are believed to be "M16 pattern" guns - that includes the guns made and marked "M16" or M16A1 & A2", the earlier full-auto 601's and the like, the converted Colt SP-1s and the like and other non-Colt brands that were converted, the Group Industry factory made "M16s", the RDIASs, and LLs. (Likewise, there believed to be something over 30,000 of the "MAC" family of machine guns, most common being M11/9s). I hope to be in the market for a Colt M16A1 in a few months to a year, so I'm hoping the price stays flat or drops. I expect that CLEO signoff should not be a problem for me. I wish somebody would do a serious guesstimate of all the different types of guns in the registry maybe just the top 10 or 15 types The transferable machine guns that are listed in the ATF NFA Registry? Or the transferable machine guns that exist today in 2014, and have even the slightest chance of ever being sold on to non-FFL parties? Because there is a vast difference between the two. It's too late right now to go searching my files, but yes, the total number of transferable MGs in the NFA Registry is between 155,000 and 180,000. There is a bunch of documentation from ATF over the years to support totals within that range, depending on which report you reference. The reality is that in 2014, the total number of transferable MGs which still exist and might ever be sold is far, far fewer. First, you must understand that the NFA Registry is far from accurate. Many, many technically transferable MGs (WWII lawful bring backs) never made it into the Registry yet potentially are transferable; many, many, many transferable MGs have been destroyed or made "untransferable" through Form 10 re-registrations, yet the NFA Registry does not reflect that. There are thousands of transferable, still-in-the-Registry MGs that have been destroyed by LE -- for example, the city of Detroit melted hundreds, probably over 1k, GM Hydramatic M16s that were registered to it. Add in all the "surrendered to LE by heirs for destruction" MGs and you are talking serious numbers. Speaking of "surrendered to LE by heirs for destruction," there are still many thousands of WWII bring backs that are, according to the NFA Registry, still registered to their original ex-GI owners -- even though they were registered to them between 1943 and 1950. So how old are those "registered owners" today, and how many of those veterans are still alive (and thus, the MGs remain in the possession of the registered owner)? As noted, many family survivors find an MG and just turn it over to local LE, with no documentation. LE either (a.) destroys it; (b.) registers it on a Form 10, which makes it untransferable in the future; or (c.) a helpful officer stashes it in his trunk, and it vanishes forever. This has been going on day after day, month after month, year after year, for 70 years. And then we have thefts. I have the greatest respect for LE in general -- seriously, I do -- but when it comes to stolen goods, returning them to owners is not their top priority (I'm not sure it should be, either). But in my area, Miami-Dade/Broward counties, I know of over 20 transferable MGs that have been stolen from their owners in the last 20 years. It's not a one-a-year situation, just a few burglaries of collectors who had great security, safes, dogs, etc., but the bad guys got in-and-out before LE could respond. Not one transferable MG ever made it back to its owner, AFAIK. And I doubt I know of every instance. So multiply that by all the states, and all the years, then subtract out from the total number of transferables. Many of these same LE agencies today have set policies against ever selling LE assets to dealers who will eventually resell them to "civilians," under orders from Democratically elected city/state officials. "Cough." There are tens of thousands of transferable MGs which fall into this category. Next, we have exported MGs. In theory, when an exporter files a Form 6 to send MGs out of the U.S., that fact should be notated in the NFA Registry, but I know of many instances where NFA Branch failed to do so. Again, hundreds, probably thousands, of MGs that today are in the NFA Registry are outside the U.S., and under GCA '68 cannot be re-imported with transferable status. Let's move on to museums. They own thousands of transferables ... but in many cases, those museums have boards of directors who might sell a painting or a military vehicle, but would never consider selling a transferable MG. It's "for the children." You understand, right? And then we have folks like Reed Knight, bless his heart. I have the greatest respect for Mr. Knight, and praise his tireless work for firearms technology and civilian gun owners .... but he owns thousands of transferable MGs -- including, literally, pallets of brand new transferable MGs -- yet he will never, ever sell them, unless you happen to own an MG he desires, and you insist you will only take trades. My educated guesstimate is that there are well under 100k transferable MGs that could ever possibly hit the market. Hey, when it's my turn to depart, my Colt M16A1 will be buried in my right hand and my Uzi in my left hand, so there's two more transferable MGs that will never, ever be in the market. 
Your Mileage May Vary. |
| cyborg, to give you a non-rant (see above) answer, the two most common guesstimates are around 30k M16/ARs, 35k Mac-family sub guns, 10k Uzi family sub guns, and the rest is split up. STEns are probably next most common; then Thompson variations; then USGI WWII bring backs from Europe and Asia. |
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I'm sure it's been covered before, but why exactly does Mr. Knight hoard pallets of transferable indefinitely? I mean, I totally understand having the unique items. And if he really is keeping the others as an investment, that's ok as well I guess (but that would imply a plan to sell them at some point to cash in). He's a manufacturer who could get literally any post sample that he wants. So they're not for personal use likely.
Does he think its some higher purpose to maintain the collection for the enjoyment of future generations as far as education, etc? Or does he have some aversion to that many transferables in the hands of civilians? I just can't really figure it out, aside from just to say "haha, look what I've got." Shed some light on it? |
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I'm sure it's been covered before, but why exactly does Mr. Knight hoard pallets of transferable indefinitely? I mean, I totally understand having the unique items. And if he really is keeping the others as an investment, that's ok as well I guess (but that would imply a plan to sell them at some point to cash in). He's a manufacturer who could get literally any post sample that he wants. So they're not for personal use likely. Does he think its some higher purpose to maintain the collection for the enjoyment of future generations as far as education, etc? Or does he have some aversion to that many transferables in the hands of civilians? I just can't really figure it out, aside from just to say "haha, look what I've got." Shed some light on it? Check out The Institute of Military Technology , Reed Knight's museum. Its motto is: Preserve. Educate. Motivate. More about it here: http://sadefensejournal.com/wp/?p=370 Mr. Knight acquired his MGs over a lifetime -- sometimes buying entire collections to get one or two items; other times, being paid for work in goods, like the proverbial pallets of MGs. Like all museums, only a faction of the inventory is put on display. But when was the last time the Smithsonian had a yard sale? Reed Knight was a longtime friend and business partner with Gene Stoner, and to this day his focus is on designing new firearms to fulfill unmet needs, and to making existing platforms better. He also actively manages 11 corporations and sits on the boards of nine others. I doubt he even visits the museum much, and even more rare would be for him to go through the museum's back rooms. |
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cyborg, to give you a non-rant (see above) answer, the two most common guesstimates are around 30k M16/ARs, 35k Mac-family sub guns, 10k Uzi family sub guns, and the rest is split up. STEns are probably next most common; then Thompson variations; then USGI WWII bring backs from Europe and Asia. Interesting replies, both of them regarding the number of FNC sears out there my guess is 3550 or so I've been sort of following the serial numbers as they rarely come up for sale, they seem to stall out at around # 3550 |
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I'm sure it's been covered before, but why exactly does Mr. Knight hoard pallets of transferable indefinitely? I mean, I totally understand having the unique items. And if he really is keeping the others as an investment, that's ok as well I guess (but that would imply a plan to sell them at some point to cash in). He's a manufacturer who could get literally any post sample that he wants. So they're not for personal use likely. Does he think its some higher purpose to maintain the collection for the enjoyment of future generations as far as education, etc? Or does he have some aversion to that many transferables in the hands of civilians? I just can't really figure it out, aside from just to say "haha, look what I've got." Shed some light on it? all collector stuff sort of gets hoarded away from the sunlight look how often NIB NFA guns come up for sale collectors collect, shooters shoot a well used M11/9 is a shooter but a pallet of NIB M11/9s is going to be seen as a collector's item or investment |
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Quoted: I am more of a shooter and the M16 I just purchased will never go for sale unless it lead to two more M16's The owner I bought it from only sold it because he had 2 and wanted other NFA stuff. |
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Quoted:
The transferable machine guns that are listed in the ATF NFA Registry? Or the transferable machine guns that exist today in 2014, and have even the slightest chance of ever being sold on to non-FFL parties? Because there is a vast difference between the two. It's too late right now to go searching my files, but yes, the total number of transferable MGs in the NFA Registry is between 155,000 and 180,000. There is a bunch of documentation from ATF over the years to support totals within that range, depending on which report you reference. The reality is that in 2014, the total number of transferable MGs which still exist and might ever be sold is far, far fewer. First, you must understand that the NFA Registry is far from accurate. Many, many technically transferable MGs (WWII lawful bring backs) never made it into the Registry yet potentially are transferable; many, many, many transferable MGs have been destroyed or made "untransferable" through Form 10 re-registrations, yet the NFA Registry does not reflect that. There are thousands of transferable, still-in-the-Registry MGs that have been destroyed by LE -- for example, the city of Detroit melted hundreds, probably over 1k, GM Hydramatic M16s that were registered to it. Add in all the "surrendered to LE by heirs for destruction" MGs and you are talking serious numbers. Speaking of "surrendered to LE by heirs for destruction," there are still many thousands of WWII bring backs that are, according to the NFA Registry, still registered to their original ex-GI owners -- even though they were registered to them between 1943 and 1950. So how old are those "registered owners" today, and how many of those veterans are still alive (and thus, the MGs remain in the possession of the registered owner)? As noted, many family survivors find an MG and just turn it over to local LE, with no documentation. LE either (a.) destroys it; (b.) registers it on a Form 10, which makes it untransferable in the future; or (c.) a helpful officer stashes it in his trunk, and it vanishes forever. This has been going on day after day, month after month, year after year, for 70 years. And then we have thefts. I have the greatest respect for LE in general -- seriously, I do -- but when it comes to stolen goods, returning them to owners is not their top priority (I'm not sure it should be, either). But in my area, Miami-Dade/Broward counties, I know of over 20 transferable MGs that have been stolen from their owners in the last 20 years. It's not a one-a-year situation, just a few burglaries of collectors who had great security, safes, dogs, etc., but the bad guys got in-and-out before LE could respond. Not one transferable MG ever made it back to its owner, AFAIK. And I doubt I know of every instance. So multiply that by all the states, and all the years, then subtract out from the total number of transferables. Many of these same LE agencies today have set policies against ever selling LE assets to dealers who will eventually resell them to "civilians," under orders from Democratically elected city/state officials. "Cough." There are tens of thousands of transferable MGs which fall into this category. Next, we have exported MGs. In theory, when an exporter files a Form 6 to send MGs out of the U.S., that fact should be notated in the NFA Registry, but I know of many instances where NFA Branch failed to do so. Again, hundreds, probably thousands, of MGs that today are in the NFA Registry are outside the U.S., and under GCA '68 cannot be re-imported with transferable status. Let's move on to museums. They own thousands of transferables ... but in many cases, those museums have boards of directors who might sell a painting or a military vehicle, but would never consider selling a transferable MG. It's "for the children." You understand, right? And then we have folks like Reed Knight, bless his heart. I have the greatest respect for Mr. Knight, and praise his tireless work for firearms technology and civilian gun owners .... but he owns thousands of transferable MGs -- including, literally, pallets of brand new transferable MGs -- yet he will never, ever sell them, unless you happen to own an MG he desires, and you insist you will only take trades. My educated guesstimate is that there are well under 100k transferable MGs that could ever possibly hit the market. Hey, when it's my turn to depart, my Colt M16A1 will be buried in my right hand and my Uzi in my left hand, so there's two more transferable MGs that will never, ever be in the market.
Your Mileage May Vary. Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
FWIW, from discussions that were on the Subguns.com blog a few years ago, there's something over 187,000 transferrable machine guns on the registry. Something over 30,000 are believed to be "M16 pattern" guns - that includes the guns made and marked "M16" or M16A1 & A2", the earlier full-auto 601's and the like, the converted Colt SP-1s and the like and other non-Colt brands that were converted, the Group Industry factory made "M16s", the RDIASs, and LLs. (Likewise, there believed to be something over 30,000 of the "MAC" family of machine guns, most common being M11/9s). I hope to be in the market for a Colt M16A1 in a few months to a year, so I'm hoping the price stays flat or drops. I expect that CLEO signoff should not be a problem for me. I wish somebody would do a serious guesstimate of all the different types of guns in the registry maybe just the top 10 or 15 types The transferable machine guns that are listed in the ATF NFA Registry? Or the transferable machine guns that exist today in 2014, and have even the slightest chance of ever being sold on to non-FFL parties? Because there is a vast difference between the two. It's too late right now to go searching my files, but yes, the total number of transferable MGs in the NFA Registry is between 155,000 and 180,000. There is a bunch of documentation from ATF over the years to support totals within that range, depending on which report you reference. The reality is that in 2014, the total number of transferable MGs which still exist and might ever be sold is far, far fewer. First, you must understand that the NFA Registry is far from accurate. Many, many technically transferable MGs (WWII lawful bring backs) never made it into the Registry yet potentially are transferable; many, many, many transferable MGs have been destroyed or made "untransferable" through Form 10 re-registrations, yet the NFA Registry does not reflect that. There are thousands of transferable, still-in-the-Registry MGs that have been destroyed by LE -- for example, the city of Detroit melted hundreds, probably over 1k, GM Hydramatic M16s that were registered to it. Add in all the "surrendered to LE by heirs for destruction" MGs and you are talking serious numbers. Speaking of "surrendered to LE by heirs for destruction," there are still many thousands of WWII bring backs that are, according to the NFA Registry, still registered to their original ex-GI owners -- even though they were registered to them between 1943 and 1950. So how old are those "registered owners" today, and how many of those veterans are still alive (and thus, the MGs remain in the possession of the registered owner)? As noted, many family survivors find an MG and just turn it over to local LE, with no documentation. LE either (a.) destroys it; (b.) registers it on a Form 10, which makes it untransferable in the future; or (c.) a helpful officer stashes it in his trunk, and it vanishes forever. This has been going on day after day, month after month, year after year, for 70 years. And then we have thefts. I have the greatest respect for LE in general -- seriously, I do -- but when it comes to stolen goods, returning them to owners is not their top priority (I'm not sure it should be, either). But in my area, Miami-Dade/Broward counties, I know of over 20 transferable MGs that have been stolen from their owners in the last 20 years. It's not a one-a-year situation, just a few burglaries of collectors who had great security, safes, dogs, etc., but the bad guys got in-and-out before LE could respond. Not one transferable MG ever made it back to its owner, AFAIK. And I doubt I know of every instance. So multiply that by all the states, and all the years, then subtract out from the total number of transferables. Many of these same LE agencies today have set policies against ever selling LE assets to dealers who will eventually resell them to "civilians," under orders from Democratically elected city/state officials. "Cough." There are tens of thousands of transferable MGs which fall into this category. Next, we have exported MGs. In theory, when an exporter files a Form 6 to send MGs out of the U.S., that fact should be notated in the NFA Registry, but I know of many instances where NFA Branch failed to do so. Again, hundreds, probably thousands, of MGs that today are in the NFA Registry are outside the U.S., and under GCA '68 cannot be re-imported with transferable status. Let's move on to museums. They own thousands of transferables ... but in many cases, those museums have boards of directors who might sell a painting or a military vehicle, but would never consider selling a transferable MG. It's "for the children." You understand, right? And then we have folks like Reed Knight, bless his heart. I have the greatest respect for Mr. Knight, and praise his tireless work for firearms technology and civilian gun owners .... but he owns thousands of transferable MGs -- including, literally, pallets of brand new transferable MGs -- yet he will never, ever sell them, unless you happen to own an MG he desires, and you insist you will only take trades. My educated guesstimate is that there are well under 100k transferable MGs that could ever possibly hit the market. Hey, when it's my turn to depart, my Colt M16A1 will be buried in my right hand and my Uzi in my left hand, so there's two more transferable MGs that will never, ever be in the market.
Your Mileage May Vary. Great info, tony_k. |
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