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Posted: 11/15/2020 2:40:42 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Found some details on the agreement. Per this looks like Armenia/N-K promised to give every inch of Azerbaijani land back that wasn't N-K proper, even the stuff that was almost vacant of people west and connected N-K with Armenia proper. This is even more dramatic than the earlier maps showed. https://english.iswnews.com/16231/the-peace-agreement-between-azerbaijan-and-armenia-who-is-the-winner-of-this-conflict/?fbclid=IwAR0IVMGuT3Oo4CCI-zIF0sa5P5jPbn0sHIqyZO-G8OR2W_35FY-rFNKOWWc 
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Posted: 11/15/2020 2:43:03 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted: So is Armenia going to accept this loss or are they likely to try to build up their forces in hopes of retaking the land in the future? In other words, just how attached are they to that land? My marginally informed opinion is that the conventional phase of the conflict is absolutely done. Armenia took that many losses. Could there still be small insurgent type unrest?  EDIT: all this goes out the window if we start seeing tweets of Azeris treating the Armenians in controlled territory like the Russians did to the Afghans in the 80s. |
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Posted: 11/15/2020 2:43:37 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryQuoted: So is Armenia going to accept this loss or are they likely to try to build up their forces in hopes of retaking the land in the future? In other words, just how attached are they to that land? With the obvious exception of Shusha, none of it looks to be any land they should be particularly attached to. Their justification since the 1990s for the rest was always just buffer space, though recently some ethnic Armenian refugees had been settling in some of those villages. But, if you lend much weight to the water theory, they may have non-cultural attachments. Of course, to some Armenians, all of the southern Caucasus and most of eastern Turkey is rightful Armenian territory. That's really a fringe position for the most part. |
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Posted: 11/15/2020 7:47:07 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted: So is Armenia going to accept this loss or are they likely to try to build up their forces in hopes of retaking the land in the future? In other words, just how attached are they to that land? I wouldn't be surprised if they try to in the future. It would be a long time from now if they did try, but I wouldn't be surprised if they tried. Of course, it'll be interesting to see how aggressive the turks get with their lap dog and what the Russians do. There are long running blood feuds there but a lot will depends on the positions of the belligerents with respect to their military situation years from now. If Azerbaijan continues building its military with turkish, Israeli, (and anyone else frankly) arms and keeps getting state of the art weapons but Armenia is stuck with decades old junk then there will be no point for Armenia to try and get the land back, it would be a futile bloodbath. There are a lot of variables now, I think a lot will depend on turkey and what it decides to do. Clearly Erdogan wants to build another Ottoman empire. |
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Posted: 11/15/2020 10:09:43 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted: There are a lot of variables now, I think a lot will depend on turkey and what it decides to do. Clearly Erdogan wants to build another Ottoman empire. Odd the Azeris didn’t push all the way to Yerevan If they want to be part Turkeys plans. |
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Posted: 11/15/2020 10:34:54 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Odd the Azeris didn’t push all the way to Yerevan If they want to be part Turkeys plans. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: There are a lot of variables now, I think a lot will depend on turkey and what it decides to do. Clearly Erdogan wants to build another Ottoman empire. Odd the Azeris didn’t push all the way to Yerevan If they want to be part Turkeys plans. Other than breathless conspiracy posting, there was little to indicate that was ever their goal. In fact, this current situation makes it pretty clear that their goal wasn't ever really to try to occupy and govern N-K proper, let alone take Any Armenian land. No, they got their own people's lands and villages back, and did so in such a dramatic way that even the most hardcore "N-K is ours" crowd probably won't care that the region dominated by ethnic Armenians won't be falling under Azerbaijani governance. It's possible they wanted to take all of N-K and the Russians came in to save the Day and prevent the genocide that would have thus ensued. That's certainly a narrative that will form in time. However, there is little evidence for this. |
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Posted: 11/15/2020 10:52:46 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Odd the Azeris didn’t push all the way to Yerevan If they want to be part Turkeys plans. Not odd at all,Russia would have been forced to step in and that’s not a fight Azeris want. The Turks might,the Azeris sure don’t. |
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Posted: 11/15/2020 11:35:23 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Odd the Azeris didn’t push all the way to Yerevan If they want to be part Turkeys plans. Honestly, knowing no more than I do, that COA would threaten the Azeris culminating badly. The Azeris thought this one out. This campaign will be studied in detail, starting with their Azeri end state. |
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Posted: 11/16/2020 12:41:46 AM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Honestly, knowing no more than I do, that COA would threaten the Azeris culminating badly. The Azeris thought this one out. This campaign will be studied in detail, starting with their Azeri end state. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Odd the Azeris didn’t push all the way to Yerevan If they want to be part Turkeys plans. Honestly, knowing no more than I do, that COA would threaten the Azeris culminating badly. The Azeris thought this one out. This campaign will be studied in detail, starting with their Azeri end state. Oh, so this was an Azeri campaign, not Turkish.  
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Posted: 11/16/2020 12:43:37 AM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It's possible they wanted to take all of N-K and the Russians came in to save the Day and prevent the genocide that would have thus ensued. That's certainly a narrative that will form in time. However, there is little evidence for this. Honestly, I wanted to see Russia try to stop them. Because I’m pretty sure that would result in Russia negotiating for their conquered land, as well. |
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Posted: 11/16/2020 1:53:28 AM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Other than breathless conspiracy posting, there was little to indicate that was ever their goal. In fact, this current situation makes it pretty clear that their goal wasn't ever really to try to occupy and govern N-K proper, let alone take Any Armenian land. No, they got their own people's lands and villages back, and did so in such a dramatic way that even the most hardcore "N-K is ours" crowd probably won't care that the region dominated by ethnic Armenians won't be falling under Azerbaijani governance. It's possible they wanted to take all of N-K and the Russians came in to save the Day and prevent the genocide that would have thus ensued. That's certainly a narrative that will form in time. However, there is little evidence for this. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: There are a lot of variables now, I think a lot will depend on turkey and what it decides to do. Clearly Erdogan wants to build another Ottoman empire. Odd the Azeris didn’t push all the way to Yerevan If they want to be part Turkeys plans. Other than breathless conspiracy posting, there was little to indicate that was ever their goal. In fact, this current situation makes it pretty clear that their goal wasn't ever really to try to occupy and govern N-K proper, let alone take Any Armenian land. No, they got their own people's lands and villages back, and did so in such a dramatic way that even the most hardcore "N-K is ours" crowd probably won't care that the region dominated by ethnic Armenians won't be falling under Azerbaijani governance. It's possible they wanted to take all of N-K and the Russians came in to save the Day and prevent the genocide that would have thus ensued. That's certainly a narrative that will form in time. However, there is little evidence for this. I believe you are correct, Azerbaijan didn't want to invade Armenia itself and that wasn't the end goal of this war. As for my comment about turkey's plans moving forward, I don't think turkey is THAT stupid, to start a big fight to conquer Armenia right now, given the shit going on in Syria still and the fact that the Russians probably would step in at that point. The fact is, Erdogan is an extremist muslim and wants to build a new Ottoman empire. Whether he'll try or not remains to be seen and if he gets really aggressive. With regard to the comment a couple posts up about this being an Azeri campaign not a turkish one, of course it was. Turkey's role was more to instigate and aid and abet. If they could help kill more Armenians than they did, why wouldn't they? The fact that this war was limited in its scope doesn't necessarily mean turkey wasn't pulling strings and isn't taking the long view. It may very well also mean nothing else happens, but I don't trust turkey and especially Erdogan any more than I trust our own democrats. The dust will need to settle and some time to pass before any real judgements and conclusions about all the players can be made. |
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Posted: 11/16/2020 5:26:53 PM EDT
[#12]
Any guesses on the guy with the ski mask at this Russian checkpoint? Locals? Political officer?
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Posted: 11/16/2020 5:30:09 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Oh, that would be great. And a terrible idea for Russia. |
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Posted: 11/16/2020 5:35:27 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Shocking images captured by a photographer for Reuters in a convoy of Russian peacekeepers show heavy casualties in the fighting between Azerbaijani and ethnic Armenian forces in the battle for Shushi/Susa. Graphic pics in link None graphic below, rest at the link(bodies everywhere) https://gdb.rferl.org/575b14af-2548-4531-b803-e1844e05b761_w1023_s.jpg https://gdb.rferl.org/31159896-928c-4794-a622-51e3ad8b7ce7_w1023_s.jpg That link has Aids. |
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Posted: 11/16/2020 5:49:40 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That link has Aids. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Shocking images captured by a photographer for Reuters in a convoy of Russian peacekeepers show heavy casualties in the fighting between Azerbaijani and ethnic Armenian forces in the battle for Shushi/Susa. Graphic pics in link None graphic below, rest at the link(bodies everywhere) https://gdb.rferl.org/575b14af-2548-4531-b803-e1844e05b761_w1023_s.jpg https://gdb.rferl.org/31159896-928c-4794-a622-51e3ad8b7ce7_w1023_s.jpg That link has Aids. Balista posted the rest of them anyways |
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Posted: 11/16/2020 8:24:17 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Its what Russia did in Georgia and Ukraine. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Oh, that would be great. And a terrible idea for Russia. Azerbaijan is neither of those countries. |
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Posted: 11/16/2020 8:34:25 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The reality is no one gives a fuck what happens between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Quote HistoryQuoted: The reality is no one gives a fuck what happens between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The US Army does, bigtime. Quoted: Its what Russia did in Georgia and Ukraine. Its a bit more complicated than that, both Georgia and Ukraine had ethnic Russian minorities in defined areas (Ossetia/Donbass) that Russia exploited to create the the necessary pretext for action. Azerbaijan would be much harder to mimic that tactic with, especially is Turkish forces are on the ground also. Russia gets its hooks in covertly, not blatantly in front of the world. |
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Posted: 11/16/2020 9:06:59 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The US Army does, bigtime. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: The reality is no one gives a fuck what happens between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The US Army does, bigtime. GOOD! |
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Posted: 11/16/2020 9:50:08 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted: GOOD! To be clear, its not in the interest of intervention. The areas of interest are more along the lines of adapting the GAAT scenario, UAS/CUAS warfare, IW/EW, resource-based conflict, etc. |
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Posted: 11/16/2020 9:54:10 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted: To be clear, its not in the interest of intervention. The areas of interest are more along the lines of adapting the GAAT scenario, UAS/CUAS warfare, IW/EW, resource-based conflict, etc. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: GOOD! To be clear, its not in the interest of intervention. The areas of interest are more along the lines of adapting the GAAT scenario, UAS/CUAS warfare, IW/EW, resource-based conflict, etc. That is exactly why I'm glad our military is paying attention. Intervention is too late now anyway, and I don't think it would have helped anything for us to get militarily involved. |
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Posted: 11/16/2020 10:01:31 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted: To be clear, its not in the interest of intervention. The areas of interest are more along the lines of adapting the GAAT scenario, UAS/CUAS warfare, IW/EW, resource-based conflict, etc. Sole purpose behind my interest. When I first joined, the Mil had capabilities in EW, over time those capabilities slackened. Looking for evidence those capabilities are being bolstered, or at least looked at. |
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Posted: 11/16/2020 10:06:51 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Sole purpose behind my interest. When I first joined, the Mil had capabilities in EW, over time those capabilities slackened. Looking for evidence those capabilities are being bolstered, or at least looked at. Well, to start, EW is an MOS now, along with Cyber. Good news, there are people objectively assessing the Army's capabilities. Bad news, they will be casing their colors in a few months. 
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Posted: 11/16/2020 10:10:40 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Well, to start, EW is an MOS now, along with Cyber. Good news, there are people objectively assessing the Army's capabilities. Bad news, they will be casing their colors in a few months. Sadly, I'm aware of all of that. |
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Posted: 11/17/2020 3:47:58 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The US Army does, bigtime. Its a bit more complicated than that, both Georgia and Ukraine had ethnic Russian minorities in defined areas (Ossetia/Donbass) that Russia exploited to create the the necessary pretext for action. Azerbaijan would be much harder to mimic that tactic with, especially is Turkish forces are on the ground also. Russia gets its hooks in covertly, not blatantly in front of the world. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: The reality is no one gives a fuck what happens between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The US Army does, bigtime. Quoted: Its what Russia did in Georgia and Ukraine. Its a bit more complicated than that, both Georgia and Ukraine had ethnic Russian minorities in defined areas (Ossetia/Donbass) that Russia exploited to create the the necessary pretext for action. Azerbaijan would be much harder to mimic that tactic with, especially is Turkish forces are on the ground also. Russia gets its hooks in covertly, not blatantly in front of the world. Point of order. South Ossetia has very few if any ethnic Russians and Abkhazia has a handful in the cities. The angle Russia played there was exploiting that they were majority minority communities, thus not Georgians. Russians love to play up their "nationalism is fascim is Nazism" narrative to foster or build up grievances in such groups. |
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Posted: 11/17/2020 4:05:00 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Point of order. South Ossetia has very few if any ethnic Russians and Abkhazia has a handful in the cities. The angle Russia played there was exploiting that they were majority minority communities, thus not Georgians. Russians love to play up their "nationalism is fascim is Nazism" narrative to foster or build up grievances in such groups. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: The reality is no one gives a fuck what happens between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The US Army does, bigtime. Quoted: Its what Russia did in Georgia and Ukraine. Its a bit more complicated than that, both Georgia and Ukraine had ethnic Russian minorities in defined areas (Ossetia/Donbass) that Russia exploited to create the the necessary pretext for action. Azerbaijan would be much harder to mimic that tactic with, especially is Turkish forces are on the ground also. Russia gets its hooks in covertly, not blatantly in front of the world. Point of order. South Ossetia has very few if any ethnic Russians and Abkhazia has a handful in the cities. The angle Russia played there was exploiting that they were majority minority communities, thus not Georgians. Russians love to play up their "nationalism is fascim is Nazism" narrative to foster or build up grievances in such groups. They also handed out Russian passports to them like candy in order to be able to claim they were protecting Russians. I don't recall right now if they also used that tactic in Ukraine. From what I recall in Georgia, the Russian government had essentially taken over the political leadership of South Ossetia, with some of the political leaders being former Russian military officers. I don't recall if that was also true in Abkhazia, but it's been a while now since I last read about that conflict. |
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Posted: 11/17/2020 4:17:47 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted: They also handed out Russian passports to them like candy in order to be able to claim they were protecting Russians. I don't recall right now if they also used that tactic in Ukraine. From what I recall in Georgia, the Russian government had essentially taken over the political leadership of South Ossetia, with some of the political leaders being former Russian military officers. I don't recall if that was also true in Abkhazia, but it's been a while now since I last read about that conflict. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: The reality is no one gives a fuck what happens between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The US Army does, bigtime. Quoted: Its what Russia did in Georgia and Ukraine. Its a bit more complicated than that, both Georgia and Ukraine had ethnic Russian minorities in defined areas (Ossetia/Donbass) that Russia exploited to create the the necessary pretext for action. Azerbaijan would be much harder to mimic that tactic with, especially is Turkish forces are on the ground also. Russia gets its hooks in covertly, not blatantly in front of the world. Point of order. South Ossetia has very few if any ethnic Russians and Abkhazia has a handful in the cities. The angle Russia played there was exploiting that they were majority minority communities, thus not Georgians. Russians love to play up their "nationalism is fascim is Nazism" narrative to foster or build up grievances in such groups. They also handed out Russian passports to them like candy in order to be able to claim they were protecting Russians. I don't recall right now if they also used that tactic in Ukraine. From what I recall in Georgia, the Russian government had essentially taken over the political leadership of South Ossetia, with some of the political leaders being former Russian military officers. I don't recall if that was also true in Abkhazia, but it's been a while now since I last read about that conflict. For that, I have to go into linguistic nerddom. Russian has two words for what in English is just translated as "Russian." The word for the language, ethnicity, and roulette game is not the same as the word for citizens of the Russian Federation, or what would be used if referring to the Russian Flag, Russian Duma, Russian capital, etc. So, really easy to issue passports and make instant Russians in the latter sense, but they aren't ethnic Russians. Doesn't help that in the U.S. we often use "nationality" in a way that further confuses this issue, thus you can have Russian nationals (citizens) who are not ethnic Russian, because their nationality (ethnicity) is Ossetian. |
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Posted: 11/17/2020 6:45:28 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The US Army does, bigtime. Its a bit more complicated than that, both Georgia and Ukraine had ethnic Russian minorities in defined areas (Ossetia/Donbass) that Russia exploited to create the the necessary pretext for action. Azerbaijan would be much harder to mimic that tactic with, especially is Turkish forces are on the ground also. Russia gets its hooks in covertly, not blatantly in front of the world. |
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Posted: 11/17/2020 7:14:35 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted: For that, I have to go into linguistic nerddom. Russian has two words for what in English is just translated as "Russian." The word for the language, ethnicity, and roulette game is not the same as the word for citizens of the Russian Federation, or what would be used if referring to the Russian Flag, Russian Duma, Russian capital, etc. So, really easy to issue passports and make instant Russians in the latter sense, but they aren't ethnic Russians. Doesn't help that in the U.S. we often use "nationality" in a way that further confuses this issue, thus you can have Russian nationals (citizens) who are not ethnic Russian, because their nationality (ethnicity) is Ossetian. I new they had different words for those two concepts but I didn't fully make the connection between it being used for nationality versus ethnicity. Thanks for the linguistic nerd trivia. |
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Posted: 11/17/2020 7:26:43 PM EDT
[#29]
It’s fun to watch Turkey kick in Russia’s back door and put the myth of Russian dominance to bed. I don’t like the Turks and I feel for Armenia. Russia just let down there orthodox brothers. Christians getting slaughtered in their own back yard and not a peep from Moscow. We all know, that Russia just got challenged and lost. The Turks smoked the Russian designed air defense in a day.
Russia is in a bad situation and is obviously going to topple in a decade unless they make nice with the west and undue there cluster fuck in Ukraine. The fact that they ceded so quickly to Turkey should tell the story. Chinas already pushing north in influence, colonizing the Far East. Belorussian will fall. Russia is not on a healthy trajectory. |
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Posted: 11/17/2020 7:37:32 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted: They also handed out Russian passports to them like candy in order to be able to claim they were protecting Russians. I don't recall right now if they also used that tactic in Ukraine. From what I recall in Georgia, the Russian government had essentially taken over the political leadership of South Ossetia, with some of the political leaders being former Russian military officers. I don't recall if that was also true in Abkhazia, but it's been a while now since I last read about that conflict. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: The reality is no one gives a fuck what happens between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The US Army does, bigtime. Quoted: Its what Russia did in Georgia and Ukraine. Its a bit more complicated than that, both Georgia and Ukraine had ethnic Russian minorities in defined areas (Ossetia/Donbass) that Russia exploited to create the the necessary pretext for action. Azerbaijan would be much harder to mimic that tactic with, especially is Turkish forces are on the ground also. Russia gets its hooks in covertly, not blatantly in front of the world. Point of order. South Ossetia has very few if any ethnic Russians and Abkhazia has a handful in the cities. The angle Russia played there was exploiting that they were majority minority communities, thus not Georgians. Russians love to play up their "nationalism is fascim is Nazism" narrative to foster or build up grievances in such groups. They also handed out Russian passports to them like candy in order to be able to claim they were protecting Russians. I don't recall right now if they also used that tactic in Ukraine. From what I recall in Georgia, the Russian government had essentially taken over the political leadership of South Ossetia, with some of the political leaders being former Russian military officers. I don't recall if that was also true in Abkhazia, but it's been a while now since I last read about that conflict. They absolutely handed out passports prior to the war. The invasion of Ukraine was long planned for. The sanctions are hurting Russia big time. They made a strategic mistake in Ukraine. They now have hostile states on all sides and the 2014 era war coffers are dry. They could have easily joined the west or taken a less belligerent stance towards there neighbors. Now they are alone and their traditional allies are drifting off into other orbits. Belorussian will fall. Serbia is integrating west. Ukraine hates Russia for the back stab of Crimea and Donbas. Everyone sees what you get with Russian alliances and it ain’t worth the weight of a paper ruble. Turkey and China will move north and Russia has no aces to fight destabilization operations, they broke open Pandora’s box with the Crimean annexation. The stable western nations are not going to help Russia when those countries (China Turkey) move in in earnest. |
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Posted: 11/17/2020 7:44:34 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted: For that, I have to go into linguistic nerddom. Russian has two words for what in English is just translated as "Russian." The word for the language, ethnicity, and roulette game is not the same as the word for citizens of the Russian Federation, or what would be used if referring to the Russian Flag, Russian Duma, Russian capital, etc. So, really easy to issue passports and make instant Russians in the latter sense, but they aren't ethnic Russians. Doesn't help that in the U.S. we often use "nationality" in a way that further confuses this issue, thus you can have Russian nationals (citizens) who are not ethnic Russian, because their nationality (ethnicity) is Ossetian. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: The reality is no one gives a fuck what happens between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The US Army does, bigtime. Quoted: Its what Russia did in Georgia and Ukraine. Its a bit more complicated than that, both Georgia and Ukraine had ethnic Russian minorities in defined areas (Ossetia/Donbass) that Russia exploited to create the the necessary pretext for action. Azerbaijan would be much harder to mimic that tactic with, especially is Turkish forces are on the ground also. Russia gets its hooks in covertly, not blatantly in front of the world. Point of order. South Ossetia has very few if any ethnic Russians and Abkhazia has a handful in the cities. The angle Russia played there was exploiting that they were majority minority communities, thus not Georgians. Russians love to play up their "nationalism is fascim is Nazism" narrative to foster or build up grievances in such groups. They also handed out Russian passports to them like candy in order to be able to claim they were protecting Russians. I don't recall right now if they also used that tactic in Ukraine. From what I recall in Georgia, the Russian government had essentially taken over the political leadership of South Ossetia, with some of the political leaders being former Russian military officers. I don't recall if that was also true in Abkhazia, but it's been a while now since I last read about that conflict. For that, I have to go into linguistic nerddom. Russian has two words for what in English is just translated as "Russian." The word for the language, ethnicity, and roulette game is not the same as the word for citizens of the Russian Federation, or what would be used if referring to the Russian Flag, Russian Duma, Russian capital, etc. So, really easy to issue passports and make instant Russians in the latter sense, but they aren't ethnic Russians. Doesn't help that in the U.S. we often use "nationality" in a way that further confuses this issue, thus you can have Russian nationals (citizens) who are not ethnic Russian, because their nationality (ethnicity) is Ossetian. I wasn't claiming they were ethnically Russian, just citizens/nationals to give Russia an excuse to do things there by claiming to be protecting said Russian nationals. I am aware of the differences here. Plenty of native-born Russian citizens are not ethnically Russian, nor necessarily even Russian-speakers. |
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Posted: 11/17/2020 7:46:08 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted: They absolutely handed out passports prior to the war. The invasion of Ukraine was long planned for. The sanctions are hurting Russia big time. They made a strategic mistake in Ukraine. They now have hostile states on all sides and the 2014 era war coffers are dry. They could have easily joined the west or taken a less belligerent stance towards there neighbors. Now they are alone and their traditional allies are drifting off into other orbits. Belorussian will fall. Serbia is integrating west. Ukraine hates Russia for the back stab of Crimea and Donbas. Everyone sees what you get with Russian alliances and it ain’t worth the weight of a paper ruble. Turkey and China will move north and Russia has no aces to fight destabilization operations, they broke open Pandora’s box with the Crimean annexation. The stable western nations are not going to help Russia when those countries (China Turkey) move in in earnest. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: The reality is no one gives a fuck what happens between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The US Army does, bigtime. Quoted: Its what Russia did in Georgia and Ukraine. Its a bit more complicated than that, both Georgia and Ukraine had ethnic Russian minorities in defined areas (Ossetia/Donbass) that Russia exploited to create the the necessary pretext for action. Azerbaijan would be much harder to mimic that tactic with, especially is Turkish forces are on the ground also. Russia gets its hooks in covertly, not blatantly in front of the world. Point of order. South Ossetia has very few if any ethnic Russians and Abkhazia has a handful in the cities. The angle Russia played there was exploiting that they were majority minority communities, thus not Georgians. Russians love to play up their "nationalism is fascim is Nazism" narrative to foster or build up grievances in such groups. They also handed out Russian passports to them like candy in order to be able to claim they were protecting Russians. I don't recall right now if they also used that tactic in Ukraine. From what I recall in Georgia, the Russian government had essentially taken over the political leadership of South Ossetia, with some of the political leaders being former Russian military officers. I don't recall if that was also true in Abkhazia, but it's been a while now since I last read about that conflict. They absolutely handed out passports prior to the war. The invasion of Ukraine was long planned for. The sanctions are hurting Russia big time. They made a strategic mistake in Ukraine. They now have hostile states on all sides and the 2014 era war coffers are dry. They could have easily joined the west or taken a less belligerent stance towards there neighbors. Now they are alone and their traditional allies are drifting off into other orbits. Belorussian will fall. Serbia is integrating west. Ukraine hates Russia for the back stab of Crimea and Donbas. Everyone sees what you get with Russian alliances and it ain’t worth the weight of a paper ruble. Turkey and China will move north and Russia has no aces to fight destabilization operations, they broke open Pandora’s box with the Crimean annexation. The stable western nations are not going to help Russia when those countries (China Turkey) move in in earnest. Seems like the Middle East is the only place where Russia has seriously expanded its influence, and at our expense, although that may be fading as well. |
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Posted: 11/17/2020 7:47:08 PM EDT
[#33]
So who is winning this thing?
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Posted: 11/17/2020 7:55:38 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted: So who is winning this thing? Azerbaijan won. Cease-fire was a week ago, and aside from some minor incidents shortly afterwards, there hasn't been any fighting since as far as I can see. |
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Posted: 11/17/2020 10:54:06 PM EDT
[#35]
Interesting thing is that the Turks shot down a Russian helicopter over Armenia about 5 days before the peace deal. Crickets in Russia which tells you how overextended Russia is right now. All the forces normally centered in Chechnya have been drained to other fronts leaving their back door unguarded and wide open.
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Posted: 11/17/2020 10:58:12 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Interesting thing is that the Turks shot down a Russian helicopter over Armenia about 5 days before the peace deal. Crickets in Russia which tells you how overextended Russia is right now. All the forces normally centered in Chechnya have been drained to other fronts leaving their back door unguarded and wide open. The only people worried about invading Russia are Russians. It's like an illness for them. |
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Posted: 11/17/2020 11:08:55 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Seems like the Middle East is the only place where Russia has seriously expanded its influence, and at our expense, although that may be fading as well. I don’t know if they expanded anything, they were just able to hold onto what they had prior to the war. Loosing the Syrian naval base would have shut down their southern naval projection. |
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Posted: 11/17/2020 11:14:53 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I wasn't claiming they were ethnically Russian, just citizens/nationals to give Russia an excuse to do things there by claiming to be protecting said Russian nationals. I am aware of the differences here. Plenty of native-born Russian citizens are not ethnically Russian, nor necessarily even Russian-speakers. The Russians go back and forth white knighting for ethnic Russians, former citizens of the cccp, And Eastern Orthodox followers. Reality is all that big talk ain’t worth Dudley squat. Armenia was about as close to a Russian ally as one can be and they just got jihaded right under Putin’s back door. Russia is in for some rough times. Series of political missteps and over reactions has put themselves in a corner, with no friends or allies to speak of. Turkey can shut Russia down and they know it. |
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Posted: 11/17/2020 11:16:45 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It's fun to watch Turkey kick in Russia's back door and put the myth of Russian dominance to bed. I don't like the Turks and I feel for Armenia. Russia just let down there orthodox brothers. Christians getting slaughtered in their own back yard and not a peep from Moscow. We all know, that Russia just got challenged and lost. The Turks smoked the Russian designed air defense in a day. Russia is in a bad situation and is obviously going to topple in a decade unless they make nice with the west and undue there cluster fuck in Ukraine. The fact that they ceded so quickly to Turkey should tell the story. Chinas already pushing north in influence, colonizing the Far East. Belorussian will fall. Russia is not on a healthy trajectory. In three separate theaters we have seen Turk tech take-down much vaunted Russian air defense systems and even dedicated anti-drone systems with ease. While this is not a direct correlation into how Russian forces would operate behind the wheel of their own systems in combat, it at least doesn't give potential purchasers of Russian systems much confidence. Considering Russian military forces are highly dependent on foreign purchases to fund their own upgrades.. 2020 has been a bad year for them I also think they're overstretched abroad and continue to wonder how both Russia and our so-called POS NATO "ally" Turkey can afford these escapades too. One thing is for certain though, Turkish tech has made a splash among defense circles. It's important to remember that Russia still doesn't feel a weaponized Predator/Reaper sized drone of its own yet and largely relies on Israeli sourced drones for its ISR needs and expensive fixed wing aircraft to drop mostly unguided bombs. Suicide drones have also made waves and you're seeing many nations now rushing to either develop or acquire these systems. I truly fear these systems being used in asymmetrical ways.. |
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Posted: 11/18/2020 12:54:35 AM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Interesting thing is that the Turks shot down a Russian helicopter over Armenia about 5 days before the peace deal. Crickets in Russia which tells you how overextended Russia is right now. All the forces normally centered in Chechnya have been drained to other fronts leaving their back door unguarded and wide open. The Azeris shot it down, not the Turks. |
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Posted: 11/18/2020 3:52:15 AM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I wasn't claiming they were ethnically Russian, just citizens/nationals to give Russia an excuse to do things there by claiming to be protecting said Russian nationals. I am aware of the differences here. Plenty of native-born Russian citizens are not ethnically Russian, nor necessarily even Russian-speakers. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: The reality is no one gives a fuck what happens between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The US Army does, bigtime. Quoted: Its what Russia did in Georgia and Ukraine. Its a bit more complicated than that, both Georgia and Ukraine had ethnic Russian minorities in defined areas (Ossetia/Donbass) that Russia exploited to create the the necessary pretext for action. Azerbaijan would be much harder to mimic that tactic with, especially is Turkish forces are on the ground also. Russia gets its hooks in covertly, not blatantly in front of the world. Point of order. South Ossetia has very few if any ethnic Russians and Abkhazia has a handful in the cities. The angle Russia played there was exploiting that they were majority minority communities, thus not Georgians. Russians love to play up their "nationalism is fascim is Nazism" narrative to foster or build up grievances in such groups. They also handed out Russian passports to them like candy in order to be able to claim they were protecting Russians. I don't recall right now if they also used that tactic in Ukraine. From what I recall in Georgia, the Russian government had essentially taken over the political leadership of South Ossetia, with some of the political leaders being former Russian military officers. I don't recall if that was also true in Abkhazia, but it's been a while now since I last read about that conflict. For that, I have to go into linguistic nerddom. Russian has two words for what in English is just translated as "Russian." The word for the language, ethnicity, and roulette game is not the same as the word for citizens of the Russian Federation, or what would be used if referring to the Russian Flag, Russian Duma, Russian capital, etc. So, really easy to issue passports and make instant Russians in the latter sense, but they aren't ethnic Russians. Doesn't help that in the U.S. we often use "nationality" in a way that further confuses this issue, thus you can have Russian nationals (citizens) who are not ethnic Russian, because their nationality (ethnicity) is Ossetian. I wasn't claiming they were ethnically Russian, just citizens/nationals to give Russia an excuse to do things there by claiming to be protecting said Russian nationals. I am aware of the differences here. Plenty of native-born Russian citizens are not ethnically Russian, nor necessarily even Russian-speakers. Was just elaborating on the semantic distinction which probably had contributed to daemon734's confusion. |
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Posted: 11/18/2020 9:14:52 AM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The only people worried about invading Russia are Russians. It's like an illness for them. Mental illness. The funny thing is that had they played their cards right with Obama, they likely could have rendered the Baltics less defendable then they are now. Obama was ready to give away more than Ukraine. |
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Posted: 11/18/2020 10:21:32 AM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The only people worried about invading Russia are Russians. It's like an illness for them. Yep, like the old demented lady down the block that calls the cops five times a day for "rapists". |
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Posted: 11/19/2020 10:28:14 PM EDT
[#44]
Click To View Spoiler |
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Posted: 11/23/2020 11:28:15 AM EDT
[#45]
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Posted: 11/23/2020 12:12:50 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It’s fun to watch Turkey kick in Russia’s back door and put the myth of Russian dominance to bed. I don’t like the Turks and I feel for Armenia. Russia just let down there orthodox brothers. Christians getting slaughtered in their own back yard and not a peep from Moscow. We all know, that Russia just got challenged and lost. The Turks smoked the Russian designed air defense in a day. Russia is in a bad situation and is obviously going to topple in a decade unless they make nice with the west and undue there cluster fuck in Ukraine. The fact that they ceded so quickly to Turkey should tell the story. Chinas already pushing north in influence, colonizing the Far East. Belorussian will fall. Russia is not on a healthy trajectory. The Turks have a lot of experience in this game. They've overrun Russian ADA in Azerbaijan/NK, Syria and Libiya. |
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Posted: 11/23/2020 12:13:51 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted: So who is winning this thing? Azerbaijan and Turkey. Russia tangentially I guess. |
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Posted: 11/23/2020 12:22:09 PM EDT
[#48]
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Posted: 11/24/2020 6:12:24 AM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryLOL, but technically, Azerbaijan only invaded territory over which it had formal sovereignty, and only took back control of such territory, and also of some territory that had been taken by Armenia in the past (not sure who was recognized as having sovereignty over that little bit of territory when this whole thing started). |
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Posted: 11/25/2020 3:27:26 PM EDT
[#50]
  
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