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Posted: 7/27/2019 10:59:55 AM EST
[#1]
Increase my estimated tax payment for the 3rd quarter because our investments should make more money...………..
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Posted: 7/27/2019 11:01:23 AM EST
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
A rate cut is a tantamount admission the economy is slowing and needs to be propped up to prevent recession. Once the expected news happens there will probably be a sell off now that expectations have been met. The only expectations left to meet is some kind of end to the trade war with China, which is unlikely, because the Chinese know the trade war is hurting the US economy and thus Trump's re-election prospects. The CCP starved 50 million people to death in order to implement its goals. They aren't going to back down on a piddly trade war if it means getting rid of Trump. They can't be dislodged because of a bad economy. BUT, no rate cut will cause a stock market rout because it was expected but didn't happen. Kind of a no-win situation. Especially at all-time market highs. But the best course would be to do what was expected. At least a .25 cut. It is not always only one reason. Why did you choose the reason you did......to mainly blame Trump? Did you praise Trump when interest rates were increasing during his presidency? |
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Posted: 7/27/2019 11:10:29 AM EST
[#3]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Meant to be friendly banter... but that's ass backwards. The low rates (blue line) that preceded the recession caused people to take on a lot of debt that they couldn't afford had rates been normal. Then when rates were normal again, they predictably couldn't pay their mortgage/debts. So low rates (blue) were the culprit, not normal rates (red). https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/284150/fed_funds_rate_1_jpg-1030527_jpg-1030595.JPG The downside is that during a correction, you may not have tenants for your investment property, and you may be floating those properties rather than having capital to buy more. But if I have that wrong, I am genuinely open to hearing alternative viewpoints. |
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Posted: 7/27/2019 11:12:31 AM EST
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Uhhh...cutting rates is going to increase the velocity of money. DJIA 30k will be the next significant support level once the rates change. After that, who knows. Making money cheap to borrow is good for business. |
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Posted: 7/27/2019 11:27:02 AM EST
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
That still suggests that a low rate is the time to refinance or potentially buy assets, if you are talking long term loans such as a mortgage. The downside is that during a correction, you may not have tenants for your investment property, and you may be floating those properties rather than having capital to buy more. But if I have that wrong, I am genuinely open to hearing alternative viewpoints. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted: Meant to be friendly banter... but that's ass backwards. The low rates (blue line) that preceded the recession caused people to take on a lot of debt that they couldn't afford had rates been normal. Then when rates were normal again, they predictably couldn't pay their mortgage/debts. So low rates (blue) were the culprit, not normal rates (red). https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/284150/fed_funds_rate_1_jpg-1030527_jpg-1030595.JPG The downside is that during a correction, you may not have tenants for your investment property, and you may be floating those properties rather than having capital to buy more. But if I have that wrong, I am genuinely open to hearing alternative viewpoints. Oftentimes low rates mean high asset prices. So while the rate is lower, the amount you are financing is higher. The best time to buy is during the recessions, with cash when prices are at lows, then refinance later. Obviously it’s difficult to time that perfectly. |
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Posted: 7/27/2019 11:36:57 AM EST
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
We haven't refied in like ten years and two homes, so you are not alone Quote HistoryQuoted:
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It's already possible I'm the last homeowner in America to not refinance since 2010. |
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Posted: 7/27/2019 11:44:57 AM EST
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Yes to refinance, maybe to buying assets. Oftentimes low rates mean high asset prices. So while the rate is lower, the amount you are financing is higher. The best time to buy is during the recessions, with cash when prices are at lows, then refinance later. Obviously it’s difficult to time that perfectly. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted: Meant to be friendly banter... but that's ass backwards. The low rates (blue line) that preceded the recession caused people to take on a lot of debt that they couldn't afford had rates been normal. Then when rates were normal again, they predictably couldn't pay their mortgage/debts. So low rates (blue) were the culprit, not normal rates (red). https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/284150/fed_funds_rate_1_jpg-1030527_jpg-1030595.JPG The downside is that during a correction, you may not have tenants for your investment property, and you may be floating those properties rather than having capital to buy more. But if I have that wrong, I am genuinely open to hearing alternative viewpoints. Oftentimes low rates mean high asset prices. So while the rate is lower, the amount you are financing is higher. The best time to buy is during the recessions, with cash when prices are at lows, then refinance later. Obviously it’s difficult to time that perfectly. |
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Posted: 7/27/2019 12:57:16 PM EST
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
We bought 7 years ago and got a fixed 3.4% rate. Haven't found a better deal since. They all want to "lower your payment" but they do so by moving the goalposts and you don't actually save any money. It just takes longer to pay off the house. |
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Posted: 7/27/2019 1:10:33 PM EST
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
We bought 7 years ago and got a fixed 3.4% rate. Haven't found a better deal since. They all want to "lower your payment" but they do so by moving the goalposts and you don't actually save any money. It just takes longer to pay off the house. Quote HistoryQuoted:
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It's already possible I'm the last homeowner in America to not refinance since 2010. Not going to get it cheaper,i'll stick with my current rate Edit- Damn it 20K post wasted 
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Posted: 7/27/2019 1:12:22 PM EST
[#10]
Quote HistoryHalf the globe currently has negative interest rates. |
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Posted: 7/27/2019 1:16:47 PM EST
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Wasn’t there a thread last year about this stuff....economy dying, page after page of doom and gloom, and it never happened. What happened with that and why didn’t we die? They'll be right, eventually. You'll see. |
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Posted: 7/27/2019 1:19:04 PM EST
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
They wouldn't have to do this if someone hadn't done something, i.e. started multiple trade wars. Just saying. Is this incorrect? |
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Posted: 7/27/2019 4:18:14 PM EST
[#15]
Buy gold, energy, and other commodities and their respective stocks.
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Posted: 7/27/2019 5:33:07 PM EST
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Buy gold, energy, and other commodities and their respective stocks. Gold isn’t going to do shit but sit there and look pretty. |
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Posted: 7/27/2019 8:20:10 PM EST
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Thank you. No charge. Quote HistoryQuoted:
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lol No charge. |
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Posted: 7/28/2019 1:01:09 PM EST
[#18]
CNN says the cut could spark a "summer rally" in stocks.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/28/investing/stocks-week-ahead/index.html |
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Posted: 7/28/2019 1:08:41 PM EST
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
But this time is different! They painted themselves into a corner. Negative interest rates, here we come! |
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Posted: 7/28/2019 1:09:17 PM EST
[#20]
sent a refi request in.
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Posted: 7/28/2019 1:26:31 PM EST
[#21]
maybe the point to cutting rates is to force people into the market who would normally park their cash in cd's
etc, so0 why is everyone(the fed and the banks) so willing to drop the rates to damn near zero just to push people into the market hmmmmmm 
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Posted: 7/28/2019 1:30:25 PM EST
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
maybe the point to cutting rates is to force people into the market who would normally park their cash in cd's etc, so0 why is everyone(the fed and the banks) so willing to drop the rates to damn near zero just to push people into the market hmmmmmm |
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Posted: 7/28/2019 1:32:37 PM EST
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
We have not recovered from 2008. Economy really as strong as it seems. The only difference this time around; it will be MUCH worse when it collapses. Which may not be for a few years. But it will happen. |
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Posted: 7/28/2019 1:32:59 PM EST
[#24]
The baby boomers have way too much capital to allow them to make substantial gains by doing nothing but invest. This is about control.
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Posted: 7/28/2019 1:53:59 PM EST
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
No they haven’t. Greenspan painted the Fed into a corner when he kept cutting rates to an effective near zero. Under Trump’s time in office they have been raising them to the point where they now have room to maneuver. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
But this time is different! They painted themselves into a corner. Negative interest rates, here we come! |
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Posted: 7/28/2019 2:33:38 PM EST
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
They don’t have enough room to maneuver. They couldn’t even get rates to 2.5% without the market freaking out. The tech bubble and housing bubble had 5% reductions to promote a “recovery”. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
But this time is different! They painted themselves into a corner. Negative interest rates, here we come! What could possibly go wrong with negative interest rates??
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Posted: 7/28/2019 2:54:09 PM EST
[#27]
You all talking about refinancing should have started when the markets where pricing in 3 rate cuts this year. Should be closing on our refi on the 7th, 3.49% and $780 in fees.
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Posted: 7/28/2019 8:40:56 PM EST
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Into the mouths of the waiting crocodillians Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
maybe the point to cutting rates is to force people into the market who would normally park their cash in cd's etc, so0 why is everyone(the fed and the banks) so willing to drop the rates to damn near zero just to push people into the market hmmmmmm they are artificially propping up the economy. what do we actually make in this country anymore. the #1 job in the US is retail and retail service. they killed all avenues for the average american to save for retirement other than putting it in the stock market. hell they recently cut military retirement and pushed it into the market. next will be the fed and state retirement systems we dump our money in the stock market wall street takes their cut(and gets rich) and buy's stock with the rest the corporations are seeing phenomenal growth in stock price and executive pay(and gets rich) and dont have to do anything for it the corporations add lots of retail jobs to further blind us to the scam the politician's popularity grows(and get rich) because of the flashy dow jones and job growth we dont realize WE are funding the numbers out of our bank account and the new jobs are the lowest paying jobs the stock market grows on the backs of our money they all know its gonna crash eventually. its unsustainable that's why we see the big push to disarm us. we are so lost. we cant even vote our way out of it because THEY chose who we have to vote for look at our last election. out of 350 million people we had to chose between a robber baron or a batshit crazy lady who wanted to save us by putting us in chains i know some are gonna laugh and say this is all doom and gloom i hope for our children's sake you are right 
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Posted: 7/28/2019 8:58:45 PM EST
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
No they haven’t. Greenspan painted the Fed into a corner when he kept cutting rates to an effective near zero. Under Trump’s time in office they have been raising them to the point where they now have room to maneuver. Trump may have been the best of all possible worlds, but he was wrong about interest rates. We should have been able to get to something like normal before we actually needed to cut them again. There's always a lot of derp in these threads. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS |
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Posted: 7/28/2019 9:07:17 PM EST
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Lowering rates means the Fed has no other options left to combat an economy that is slowing down. This shit happens almost like clockwork every 7-10 years. As much as I prefer Trump to any other options, he has 0 influence over the decisions of the Fed. Lowering interest rates is NOT how you recover from 2008. We're headed into a recession and this is the Fed's last ditch effort to stave off disaster. |
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Posted: 7/28/2019 9:08:20 PM EST
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Boy, I'm sure artificially lowered interest rates will work great this time around! |
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Posted: 7/28/2019 9:11:17 PM EST
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
A rate cut is a tantamount admission the economy is slowing and needs to be propped up to prevent recession. Once the expected news happens there will probably be a sell off now that expectations have been met. The only expectations left to meet is some kind of end to the trade war with China, which is unlikely, because the Chinese know the trade war is hurting the US economy and thus Trump's re-election prospects. The CCP starved 50 million people to death in order to implement its goals. They aren't going to back down on a piddly trade war if it means getting rid of Trump. They can't be dislodged because of a bad economy. BUT, no rate cut will cause a stock market rout because it was expected but didn't happen. Kind of a no-win situation. Especially at all-time market highs. But the best course would be to do what was expected. At least a .25 cut. |
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Posted: 7/28/2019 9:14:57 PM EST
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I can tell you right now something is going on, as the trucking industry is in a bit of a slump now.(Do your own searches) I am not any sort of bean counter, but know enough to know, and been in trucking long enough to know, trucking is the first sign of a change and it is out of the public's eye. We are a leading indicator for recessions and lagging indicator for expansions. Railroad freight volumes have been down 2 quarters in a row... Inventories are high because of the tariffs. Companies and DCs stocked up early prior to the tariffs and now we are seeing the effect of stagnant buying with high inventory. |
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Posted: 7/28/2019 9:21:33 PM EST
[#34]
We live in interesting times. A couple thoughts:
The yield curve inverted several weeks ago. That has always presaged a market correction. Will this rate cut by the fed be followed by an equivalent interest rate downturn for longer-term bonds, thus locking in the inverted yield curve? Or will there be some resistance in longer bonds, thus reversing the recent inversion? Is the fed using interest rate policy to stave off a correction that the inverted yield curve predicts? Who knows? All the given wisdom tells us that inflation should ramping up along with the surging economy. In fact, inflation hasn't been an issue for the entire record market run-up over the last 10 years. Which leads to the question: Is inflation and a strong economy as linked as they have been in the past? If not, what has caused the de-linkage? |
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Posted: 7/28/2019 9:32:41 PM EST
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Greenspan stopped being chair of the FED in Jan 2006 with the Federal Funds Rate at 4.29%. While he was chair, the rate never went below about 2.9%, the rates haven't climbed back to where they were under Greenspan, yet. He's not responsible for the cuts that started in mid-late 2007, he's not responsible for them staying at near zero for six years. Greenspan isn't my favorite FED chair, by far, but you can't pin this on him. There's plenty of blame to go around to the credit ratings agencies, Bernanke, Yellen, Obama, even Trump. Trump may have been the best of all possible worlds, but he was wrong about interest rates. We should have been able to get to something like normal before we actually needed to cut them again. There's always a lot of derp in these threads. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS |
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Posted: 7/28/2019 9:42:21 PM EST
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Greenspan had the rates at 1% in June of 2004 to stimulate the economy; by February 2006 he had the rate jacked up to about 4.5% when good old Ben took over as Fed chair. |
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Posted: 7/28/2019 9:50:12 PM EST
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
maybe the point to cutting rates is to force people into the market who would normally park their cash in cd's etc, so0 why is everyone(the fed and the banks) so willing to drop the rates to damn near zero just to push people into the market hmmmmmm Also, Inflation plays into it too. You HAVE to play the Market, just to tread water. And people don’t see it. |
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Posted: 7/28/2019 9:53:08 PM EST
[#38]
I'm gonna hunker down in my office and make money off people thinking it's time to refinance because feds lowered rates.
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Posted: 7/28/2019 9:53:39 PM EST
[#39]
It means the securities bubble won't pop yet. The party goes on.
Refinance your loans, buy more stock. |
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Posted: 7/28/2019 9:54:22 PM EST
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
We live in interesting times. A couple thoughts: The yield curve inverted several weeks ago. That has always presaged a market correction. Will this rate cut by the fed be followed by an equivalent interest rate downturn for longer-term bonds, thus locking in the inverted yield curve? Or will there be some resistance in longer bonds, thus reversing the recent inversion? Is the fed using interest rate policy to stave off a correction that the inverted yield curve predicts? Who knows? All the given wisdom tells us that inflation should ramping up along with the surging economy. In fact, inflation hasn't been an issue for the entire record market run-up over the last 10 years. Which leads to the question: Is inflation and a strong economy as linked as they have been in the past? If not, what has caused the de-linkage? Supply and demand. Wages are kept low, by competition worldwide, and by unchecked immigration. |
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Posted: 7/28/2019 10:48:37 PM EST
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
We live in interesting times. A couple thoughts: The yield curve inverted several weeks ago. That has always presaged a market correction. Will this rate cut by the fed be followed by an equivalent interest rate downturn for longer-term bonds, thus locking in the inverted yield curve? Or will there be some resistance in longer bonds, thus reversing the recent inversion? Is the fed using interest rate policy to stave off a correction that the inverted yield curve predicts? Who knows? All the given wisdom tells us that inflation should ramping up along with the surging economy. In fact, inflation hasn't been an issue for the entire record market run-up over the last 10 years. Which leads to the question: Is inflation and a strong economy as linked as they have been in the past? If not, what has caused the de-linkage? 
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Posted: 7/28/2019 11:02:43 PM EST
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
We live in interesting times. A couple thoughts: The yield curve inverted several weeks ago. That has always presaged a market correction. Will this rate cut by the fed be followed by an equivalent interest rate downturn for longer-term bonds, thus locking in the inverted yield curve? Or will there be some resistance in longer bonds, thus reversing the recent inversion? Is the fed using interest rate policy to stave off a correction that the inverted yield curve predicts? Who knows? All the given wisdom tells us that inflation should ramping up along with the surging economy. In fact, inflation hasn't been an issue for the entire record market run-up over the last 10 years. Which leads to the question: Is inflation and a strong economy as linked as they have been in the past? If not, what has caused the de-linkage? https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2016/04/a-plodding-dollar-the-recent-decrease-in-the-velocity-of-money |
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Posted: 7/28/2019 11:47:23 PM EST
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The velocity of money has plummeted since the recovery began. Money velocity is at a 60-year low. People still want to hold dollars. https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2016/04/a-plodding-dollar-the-recent-decrease-in-the-velocity-of-money |
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Posted: 7/28/2019 11:50:38 PM EST
[#44]
Quote HistoryThis is evidence that the fed is using interest rate policy to pull up on the stick. Which is what they're supposed to do, I guess. I think Trump's recent brow-beating of the fed had an affect. But it gives them less wiggle room later.
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Posted: 7/29/2019 4:29:25 AM EST
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I see this, and the continuing plummet of the velocity after the 2008 recession. But this seems more like a symptom not a cause. Nobody thinks "I need to continue to slow the velocity of money" in their everyday lives. Also, nobody can say with a straight face that low confidence in the economy has brought us on the longest bull ride in history. Confidence is driving that. Perhaps it is just that we are experiencing King Dollar - All other currencies must bow! I'm so confused. But I'm making money so that takes the edge off. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted: The velocity of money has plummeted since the recovery began. Money velocity is at a 60-year low. People still want to hold dollars. https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2016/04/a-plodding-dollar-the-recent-decrease-in-the-velocity-of-money Desire to learn more intensifies. |
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Posted: 7/29/2019 4:42:09 AM EST
[#46]
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Posted: 7/29/2019 4:48:12 AM EST
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Wonder if they can beat my 3.7 fixed VA loan? Might be time to refinance  |
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Posted: 7/29/2019 5:36:31 AM EST
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
bankrate shows 3.1 for 15 year fixed. Not sure how accurate that is, but I'm considering a refi from a 4.5 30 yr if I can get it. Quote HistoryQuoted:
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Wonder if they can beat my 3.7 fixed VA loan? Might be time to refinance |
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Posted: 7/29/2019 5:49:44 AM EST
[#49]
Indeed, while some forward-looking indicators on activity in the U.S. economy have dipped, the unemployment rate is the lowest in 50 years and Wall Street is at a record high - not normally the environment for a change in the interest rate cycle. |
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Posted: 7/29/2019 7:32:22 AM EST
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
We should have been able to get to something like normal before we actually needed to cut them again. |
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