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Quoted: It would be a mess for sure. But nuclear winter requires putting a whole lotta shit in the upper atmosphere and having it stay there for a while. Say with a super volcano or asteroid strike. Hundreds of nukes might not have the ass to get that job done. If humanity hits "fuck it" and launches them all, maybe.. View Quote It’s not just the actual blast but the fires that will burn for days or weeks even. |
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Quoted: It would be a mess for sure. But nuclear winter requires putting a whole lotta shit in the upper atmosphere and having it stay there for a while. Say with a super volcano or asteroid strike. Hundreds of nukes might not have the ass to get that job done. If humanity hits "fuck it" and launches them all, maybe.. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Less likely under the counterforce doctrine too, I'd imagine. If cities and chemical plants burned, I bet there would be a lot more smoke than some plains states fields. Imagine half the trains going East Palestine. Hundreds of nukes might not have the ass to get that job done. If humanity hits "fuck it" and launches them all, maybe.. Less of an issue since the commies Carter and Reagan disarmed us in the face of evil. Now we just have to suffer under the illusion of no option but peace at any price. |
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Mach I'm no expert on nuclear bombs and I have no idea how many nukes have been set off by other countries what I do know is if any two countries go at it with nuclear weapons it will get ugly fast especially if other countries get drawn into the conflict.
As for nuclear subs being hard to find again all I know is what I have read and programs I've watched. From what I understand once a sub has gone below a certain depth (I believe they call it the thermo plane) it becomes harder to detect due to water temperature. Also, from what I understand our subs are very quiet more so than other superpowers subs. What I do know for sure is a nuclear exchange would be devastating for the entire world, there will be no winners. |
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I am absolutely no expert on nuclear winter, but the evidence strongly suggests that it's a distinct possibility. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter
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Quoted: I am absolutely no expert on nuclear winter, but the evidence strongly suggests that it's a distinct possibility. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter View Quote Either way, nuclear war seems kinda bad. |
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Does not matter what he uses. Launch even one nuke, big or small, and Russia is thrown on the ash heap of history. In a thousand years, someone might return and find an artifact that does not glow in the dark. Putin must be made to grasp this truth.
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Quoted: Does not matter what he uses. Launch even one nuke, big or small, and Russia is thrown on the ash heap of history. In a thousand years, someone might return and find an artifact that does not glow in the dark. Putin must be made to grasp this truth. View Quote Doesn’t work that way. Our doctrine isn’t to respond to one nuke with an all out launch. |
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Quoted: It would be a mess for sure. But nuclear winter requires putting a whole lotta shit in the upper atmosphere and having it stay there for a while. Say with a super volcano or asteroid strike. Hundreds of nukes might not have the ass to get that job done. If humanity hits "fuck it" and launches them all, maybe.. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Less likely under the counterforce doctrine too, I'd imagine. If cities and chemical plants burned, I bet there would be a lot more smoke than some plains states fields. Imagine half the trains going East Palestine. Hundreds of nukes might not have the ass to get that job done. If humanity hits "fuck it" and launches them all, maybe.. There's also, conceivably, a size component to the theory. Big devices have much higher intrusion to the upper atmosphere than even the 1 Mt or so warheads on the RF's big MIRV ICBMs. I'm not looking it up, but I want to say Ivy Mike's mushroom cloud topped out at something like 120,000 or 160,000 feet. Tsar's was even more ridiculous. Throw particulates that high, they can go a ways before they drop. If they do. A cloud "only" going 70,000' (Numbers are ex rectum), is going to settle out faster. Plus the level of fuel would be higher in a countervalue attack. There'd likely be a massive firestorm that would make Meetinghouse look paltry. Several of them. Maybe that would be what's needed for nuclear winter to actually work, if it ever was going to? As I've written before though, countervalue'll be rough on Midwest farmers. That's a lot of digging and throwing radioactive dirt everywhere. |
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Quoted: There's also, conceivably, a size component to the theory. Big devices have much higher intrusion to the upper atmosphere than even the 1 Mt or so warheads on the RF's big MIRV ICBMs. I'm not looking it up, but I want to say Ivy Mike's mushroom cloud topped out at something like 120,000 or 160,000 feet. Tsar's was even more ridiculous. Throw particulates that high, they can go a ways before they drop. If they do. A cloud "only" going 70,000' (Numbers are ex rectum), is going to settle out faster. Plus the level of fuel would be higher in a countervalue attack. There'd likely be a massive firestorm that would make Meetinghouse look paltry. Several of them. Maybe that would be what's needed for nuclear winter to actually work, if it ever was going to? As I've written before though, countervalue'll be rough on Midwest farmers. That's a lot of digging and throwing radioactive dirt everywhere. View Quote Biggest factor will be air burst vs ground burst, also a winter war with a strong jet stream. |
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Quoted: Either way, nuclear war seems kinda bad. View Quote Such a war on a large scale would almost certainly kill civilization in it's current form. Humanity would continue in places like Argentina and New Zealand. But it would be a very harsh existence for the survivors. Where things get really fucked up is when you have people who believe that civilization in it's current form deserves to die. Mostly these are the most insane of environmentalists. But not all of them... |
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Quoted: Doesn’t work that way. Our doctrine isn’t to respond to one nuke with an all out launch. View Quote @ FlyNavy75 We can launch one or all or anything in between. The idea is to make Putin understand whatever our response is, Russia is going to pay dearly. He can not be allowed to gamble it will be tit for tat. The fear of the unpredictable is part of how it works. We can target whatever we want and he can't stop it. The primary goal is deterrence. If everyone is convinced the consequences are not worth the cost, we did our job. |
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Quoted: Such a war on a large scale would almost certainly kill civilization in it's current form. Humanity would continue in places like Argentina and New Zealand. But it would be a very harsh existence for the survivors. Where things get really fucked up is when you have people who believe that civilization in it's current form deserves to die. Mostly these are the most insane of environmentalists. But not all of them... View Quote What the war itself didn’t kill, the follow on economic collapse, starvation and plagues will. |
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Quoted: It's not just the actual blast but the fires that will burn for days or weeks even. View Quote The mushroom cloud is doing most of the work. That's also why nobody ever bothered to build a bomb bigger than the Tsar, it's technically very possible, H bombs scale really well. But the boom is so big that a lot of the energy doesn't even stay in the atmosphere. Pokes out into space. The Tonga volcano that put all the water vapor in the upper levels sent ash 36 miles up, even that didn't cause a serious ash problem or loss of a season, the water vapor probably effect heat in the upper level though. |
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Quoted: Such a war on a large scale would almost certainly kill civilization in it's current form. Humanity would continue in places like Argentina and New Zealand. But it would be a very harsh existence for the survivors. Where things get really fucked up is when you have people who believe that civilization in its current form deserves to die. Mostly these are the most insane of environmentalists. But not all of them... View Quote In agrarian, you'll be permitted to own any weapon you can make or buy, just like the founders intended. Doesn't sound so bad. |
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Quoted: @ FlyNavy75 We can launch one or all or anything in between. The idea is to make Putin understand whatever our response is, Russia is going to pay dearly. He can not be allowed to gamble it will be tit for tat. The fear of the unpredictable is part of how it works. We can target whatever we want and he can't stop it. The primary goal is deterrence. If everyone is convinced the consequences are not worth the cost, we did our job. View Quote And their missiles can target whatever they want and we can’t stop it. Hence the MAD doctrine. If you respond to a single nuclear event with an all out nuclear response then you assure yourself of being on the receiving end of one. A single nuclear event would likely be responded to with either a large conventional response or a single nuclear response. Certainly not an all out one. Jesus, I’m glad our planners are more sane than that. This isn’t an 80s movie with a thousand warheads coming down. |
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Quoted: What the war itself didn’t kill, the follow on economic collapse, starvation and plagues will. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Such a war on a large scale would almost certainly kill civilization in it's current form. Humanity would continue in places like Argentina and New Zealand. But it would be a very harsh existence for the survivors. Where things get really fucked up is when you have people who believe that civilization in it's current form deserves to die. Mostly these are the most insane of environmentalists. But not all of them... What the war itself didn’t kill, the follow on economic collapse, starvation and plagues will. Don't believe the Threads psyop. We'd be fine. |
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Quoted: There's also, conceivably, a size component to the theory. Big devices have much higher intrusion to the upper atmosphere than even the 1 Mt or so warheads on the RF's big MIRV ICBMs. I'm not looking it up, but I want to say Ivy Mike's mushroom cloud topped out at something like 120,000 or 160,000 feet. Tsar's was even more ridiculous. Throw particulates that high, they can go a ways before they drop. If they do. A cloud "only" going 70,000' (Numbers are ex rectum), is going to settle out faster. Plus the level of fuel would be higher in a countervalue attack. There'd likely be a massive firestorm that would make Meetinghouse look paltry. Several of them. Maybe that would be what's needed for nuclear winter to actually work, if it ever was going to? As I've written before though, countervalue'll be rough on Midwest farmers. That's a lot of digging and throwing radioactive dirt everywhere. View Quote We burned Japan and Germany like they were damned and didn't change diddly shit with the seasons. IMHO surface fires from nukes aren't the big issue. Like you said it's getting it up to the edge of space that gets it done. |
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Quoted: And their missiles can target whatever they want and we can’t stop it. Hence the MAD doctrine. If you respond to a single nuclear event with an all out nuclear response then you assure yourself of being on the receiving end of one. A single nuclear event would likely be responded to with either a large conventional response or a single nuclear response. Certainly not an all out one. Jesus, I’m glad our planners are more sane than that. This isn’t an 80s movie with a thousand warheads coming down. View Quote MAD is dead and we can and will stop individual launches. |
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Quoted: The far more interesting development is the super tiny warheads on D5s. Like 5kt. I can't understand the use case. Seems like anything worth nuking with an SLBM is worth nuking big. Or at least not worth developing a new warhead for. Any hostile SLBM launch would be extremely provocative, So it would seem like an all or nothing type of situation. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: It had superb accuracy, but the new W71A1 modification makes it at least as accurate. It's also pointless since we're now down-loading all of our MIRV'd missiles anyway. Most MMIII's carry only a single warhead instead of the usual 3 nowadays. Trident D-5s carry 4-5 instead of 8. I can't understand the use case. Seems like anything worth nuking with an SLBM is worth nuking big. Or at least not worth developing a new warhead for. Any hostile SLBM launch would be extremely provocative, So it would seem like an all or nothing type of situation. Partly based on the idea that Russia was more likely to use a tiny nuke because we didn't have a tiny nuke to respond with. https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/2073532/statement-on-the-fielding-of-the-w76-2-low-yield-submarine-launched-ballistic-m/ Realistically its because you need significantly less material for such a smaller device and can increase range with the same booster. A low-radiation device gives more wiggle room with targets too. |
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Quoted: MAD is dead and we can and will stop individual launches. View Quote From Russia? Nope. Aegis hitting some shit NK ICBM as it’s goes up is much different than targeting maneuvering warheads with decoys from different trajectories. There is nothing we could do to stop a Russian nuclear attack if Putin pushed that button right now. Not a thing. Unless there is something we don’t know about, which obviously wouldn’t be posted here. Maybe we have sharks with laser beams. |
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Quoted: Random. I just watched that the other day, unplanned. View Quote I watched it last night lmao Given the countervalue megatons that would have been thrown around at the time, nuclear winter seems more reasonable. Personally I think it all goes to shit if one nuke gets through from the sheer panic of eloi. Once the dominoes (threads) start to fall, it's hard but not impossible to recover. Rural areas would have the best chance but the minuscule amount of horses that exist will be a huge problem. Probably the biggest. |
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Quoted: From Russia? Nope. Aegis hitting some shit NK ICBM as it's goes up is much different than targeting maneuvering warheads with decoys from different trajectories. There is nothing we could do to stop a Russian nuclear attack if Putin pushed that button right now. Not a thing. Unless there is something we don't know about, which obviously wouldn't be posted here. Maybe we have sharks with laser beams. View Quote |
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Quoted: From Russia? Nope. Aegis hitting some shit NK ICBM as it’s goes up is much different than targeting maneuvering warheads with decoys from different trajectories. There is nothing we could do to stop a Russian nuclear attack if Putin pushed that button right now. Not a thing. Unless there is something we don’t know about, which obviously wouldn’t be posted here. Maybe we have sharks with laser beams. View Quote There is, and it's awesome. |
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Quoted: Ground fires make smoke and ash that settles pretty quick. You need to alter seasons. What year didn't have a summer? late 1800s I think. Krakatoa went KB! and put enough ash and sulfur high up in the atmosphere that summer just didn't happen that year...anywhere. The mushroom cloud is doing most of the work. That's also why nobody ever bothered to build a bomb bigger than the Tsar, it's technically very possible, H bombs scale really well. But the boom is so big that a lot of the energy doesn't even stay in the atmosphere. Pokes out into space. The Tonga volcano that put all the water vapor in the upper levels sent ash 36 miles up, even that didn't cause a serious ash problem or loss of a season, the water vapor probably effect heat in the upper level though. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: It's not just the actual blast but the fires that will burn for days or weeks even. The mushroom cloud is doing most of the work. That's also why nobody ever bothered to build a bomb bigger than the Tsar, it's technically very possible, H bombs scale really well. But the boom is so big that a lot of the energy doesn't even stay in the atmosphere. Pokes out into space. The Tonga volcano that put all the water vapor in the upper levels sent ash 36 miles up, even that didn't cause a serious ash problem or loss of a season, the water vapor probably effect heat in the upper level though. 536AD - the worst year to be alive (so far, anyway). |
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Quoted: I am absolutely no expert on nuclear winter, but the evidence strongly suggests that it's a distinct possibility. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: I am absolutely no expert on nuclear winter, but the evidence strongly suggests that it's a distinct possibility. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter The models make some sweeping assumptions and there are some (I think) valid criticisms that point out those big assumptions. Listed in the article. What makes me somewhat skeptical of the worst-case "we all gonna die!" predictions is this little gem. In 2007 Schneider expressed his tentative support for the cooling results of the limited nuclear war (Pakistan and India) analyzed in the 2006 model, saying, "The sun is much stronger in the tropics than it is in mid-latitudes. Therefore, a much more limited war [there] could have a much larger effect, because you are putting the smoke in the worst possible place", and, "anything that you can do to discourage people from thinking that there is any way to win anything with a nuclear exchange is a good idea Sound familiar? I get the logic. But that sentiment is very reminiscent of researchers downplaying or outright ignoring "inconvenient" climate data because they're afraid it might lead to less concern about climate change. They're less concerned with the actual truth than they are with the "bigger truth." The Nuclear Winter research and modeling appears to suffer the same type of unscientific activism as some climate change research. I'm no expert, either. But as far as we can know, there appears to be the possibility of a "nuclear autumn" that lasts a few days or weeks or a nuclear winter that kills billions. And it all depends on what (as yet unproven) assumptions you plug into the model. |
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Quoted: I watched it last night lmao Given the countervalue megatons that would have been thrown around at the time, nuclear winter seems more reasonable. Personally I think it all goes to shit if one nuke gets through from the sheer panic of eloi. Once the dominoes (threads) start to fall, it's hard but not impossible to recover. Rural areas would have the best chance but the minuscule amount of horses that exist will be a huge problem. Probably the biggest. View Quote |
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Quoted: My family has 30 or 40 of the worthless fuckers hanging around....they make a land rover look reliable. View Quote And that's the best you get after the EDI logistics systems and pipelines go down. Unless you think the refineries and pipelines and nerds who run them will be repaired before local fuel depots run out. |
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Quoted: Such a war on a large scale would almost certainly kill civilization in it's current form. Humanity would continue in places like Argentina and New Zealand. But it would be a very harsh existence for the survivors. Where things get really fucked up is when you have people who believe that civilization in it's current form deserves to die. Mostly these are the most insane of environmentalists. But not all of them... View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Either way, nuclear war seems kinda bad. Such a war on a large scale would almost certainly kill civilization in it's current form. Humanity would continue in places like Argentina and New Zealand. But it would be a very harsh existence for the survivors. Where things get really fucked up is when you have people who believe that civilization in it's current form deserves to die. Mostly these are the most insane of environmentalists. But not all of them... Disagree. @Limaxray's shown the math. Africa---once you hashed out the massive starvation---likely wouldn't notice. Fallout would have a challenge crossing the Equator. We just don't have that many bombs anymore. Gigantic salted doomsday devices excepted, if anyone has one. |
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Quoted: Have you ever been body boarding off San Diego by yourself around dusk? I’ll never do that again. I got a weird feeling out there. Never did it again. View Quote My balance is shit, I can't do fun stuff. I wish I could, it sounds amazing. (When you aren't the potential prey of an apex predator) |
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Quoted: Disagree. @Limaxray's shown the math. Africa---once you hashed out the massive starvation---likely wouldn't notice. Fallout would have a challenge crossing the Equator. We just don't have that many bombs anymore. Gigantic salted doomsday devices excepted, if anyone has one. View Quote Would there be an African left to notice (once you hashed out the starvation)? |
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Quoted: My balance is shit, I can't do fun stuff. I wish I could, it sounds amazing. (When you aren't the potential prey of an apex predator) View Quote Interestingly enough, a week or so later a dolphin washed up with a huge bite out of it. I’ll never be able to prove it but I’ll always believe there was a white shark near me that evening. |
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Quoted: Disagree. @Limaxray's shown the math. Africa---once you hashed out the massive starvation---likely wouldn't notice. Fallout would have a challenge crossing the Equator. We just don't have that many bombs anymore. Gigantic salted doomsday devices excepted, if anyone has one. View Quote I am also in the nuclear winter is an overblown threat. Camp. That said I really wouldn't rule out the possibility that Russia has or is working on some of those salted doomsday devices. I think the North Koreans might try to make one as well. But they have some resource constraints. |
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Quoted: Interestingly enough, a week or so later a dolphin washed up with a huge bite out of it. I’ll never be able to prove it but I’ll always believe there was a white shark near me that evening. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: My balance is shit, I can't do fun stuff. I wish I could, it sounds amazing. (When you aren't the potential prey of an apex predator) Interestingly enough, a week or so later a dolphin washed up with a huge bite out of it. I’ll never be able to prove it but I’ll always believe there was a white shark near me that evening. Oh there very likely was. Those big animals certainly do have a vibe that humans spent a long time tuning into. I can't see ignoring that sort of feeling as being an evolutionary advantage. |
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Quoted: I am also in the nuclear winter is an overblown threat. Camp. That said I really wouldn't rule out the possibility that Russia has or is working on some of those salted doomsday devices. I think the North Koreans might try to make one as well. But they have some resource constraints. View Quote Remember, the timeframe nuclear winter was being pushed was also the same timeframe the .gov was pushing hole in the ozone and acid rain. Nuclear war would be the biggest disaster man has known but nuclear winter is lower on the scale for me in threats, behind economic collapse, civil unrest and disease that would inevitably come from it. |
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Quoted: Oh there very likely was. Those big animals certainly do have a vibe that humans spent a long time tuning into. I can't see ignoring that sort of feeling as being an evolutionary advantage. View Quote I felt a real fear. It was weird. I could’ve just been being a pussy though. But the feeling was real. |
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Quoted: The models make some sweeping assumptions and there are some (I think) valid criticisms that point out those big assumptions. Listed in the article. What makes me somewhat skeptical of the worst-case "we all gonna die!" predictions is this little gem. Sound familiar? I get the logic. But that sentiment is very reminiscent of researchers downplaying or outright ignoring "inconvenient" climate data because they're afraid it might lead to less concern about climate change. They're less concerned with the actual truth than they are with the "bigger truth." The Nuclear Winter research and modeling appears to suffer the same type of unscientific activism as some climate change research. I'm no expert, either. But as far as we can know, there appears to be the possibility of a "nuclear autumn" that lasts a few days or weeks or a nuclear winter that kills billions. And it all depends on what (as yet unproven) assumptions you plug into the model. View Quote High uncertainty and high risk. |
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Quoted: And their missiles can target whatever they want and we can’t stop it. Hence the MAD doctrine. If you respond to a single nuclear event with an all out nuclear response then you assure yourself of being on the receiving end of one. A single nuclear event would likely be responded to with either a large conventional response or a single nuclear response. Certainly not an all out one. Jesus, I’m glad our planners are more sane than that. This isn’t an 80s movie with a thousand warheads coming down. View Quote Again the whole idea is to not be predictable. The president has the flexibility to respond as he pleases. If Putin knows the response and views it acceptable loss, you kill the element of deterrence. You want him to consider all the possibilities. To be predictable is to be no deterrence at all. By your thinking, why not trade a list of targets and let him pick our response so he doesn't get butt hurt. |
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