Quote History Quoted:I think that is just going back to the "historic inevitability" argument from Marx. Every sect/clan/group/movement has the capacity for arms, throughout history. Humanity and weapons go together like ducks and water. The war went poorly for Rhodesia because the free world abandoned them due to their apartheid system while the Communists targeted them for aggressive action, a "must-win" campaign. If the Nazis hadn't helped Franco, wouldn't the Spanish civil war have gone badly for the nationalists? There are always arms, it comes down to who has the most arms with the most bodies, and the latter item is related to who makes the best argument.
The government of Rhodesia was set up to lose. UK/USA pushed to isolate them, and majority rule or lack thereof isn't the key turning point. If the USA had said "we're not going to let this domino fall" things might have been much different. But, Carter and Vietnam made sure that didn't happen. We picked a different domino, and lost it anyway.
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All arms are not created equal. Changing arms technology changes how wars are fought, and in this case changed the balance of power. The white Rhodesians managed to create a country in the first place by winning the Matabele wars through vast technological superiority. The proliferation of compact repeating arms and explosive weapons means that even a technologically inferior force can win so long as they have a sympathetic population to blend into and the will to fight a long, bloody war. There's a reason we mock Biden's F-15 comment around here.
I completely agree with you that who made the best argument was critical in Rhodesia. The white Rhodesians' argument boiled down to "I don't believe in black majority rule ever in Rhodesia—not in a thousand years." - Ian Smith, 1976 radio address. That's a pretty hard argument to sell; that 90+% of the population will never have the power to determine their own fate. Add in some of the actions the Rhodesians took in the field and it shouldn't be a surprise that the black guerilla groups grew steadily through the war while the area controlled by the white government shrank. People love to talk about Fireforce and the external ops; people are much less keen to talk about how the Rhodesians copied the failed Protected Villages concept from the Vietnam War.
'We'll never grant the blacks equality' is also a pretty shitty argument if you want support from the US during our own civil rights era, although frankly I don't think US support would have been as valuable as some people propose. Giving them weapons might have kept the war from moving to phase 3, but wouldn't have helped them stomp out the phase 2 conflict.