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Posted: 1/14/2024 8:42:03 AM EDT
Is Russia Running Out of Tanks?
Russia could run out of infantry fighting vehicles in two or three years, if a recent assessment is accurate. It might run out of tanks around the same time. According to one count, the Russian armed forces went to war in Ukraine in February 2022 with 2,987 tanks. After 23 months of hard fighting, the Russians have lost at least 2,619 tanks that independent analysts can confirm. That's 1,725 destroyed, 145 damaged, 205 abandoned and 544 captured T-55s, T-62s, T-72s, T-80s and T-90s. If the Kremlin didn't have options for replacing war losses, the Russian military would be down to just 368 tanks: far too few to defend against Ukraine's own armor corps, which between pre-war tanks, restored tanks and donated tanks minus losses might number around a thousand vehicles. much more at the link above. |
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Do they have access to all the equipment we abandoned in Afganistan?
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Maybe, but 2-3 years is still a long time and lots can happen in that time.
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My brain hurts just thinking about maintaining 5 different models if tank.
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Wasn't this the title of a bunch of news articles a year or two back? It seems they've been running out of tanks for a long time now!
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Quoted: Wasn't this the title of a bunch of news articles a year or two back? It seems they've been running out of tanks for a long time now! View Quote No. But there have been articles about them loosing them at a high rate and more than they can produce. “Running out” would mean they ran out. It means less and less to spread across the front. |
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Good.
Sounds like Ukraine and Europe can handle it by themselves from now on! |
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Russia will collapse any day now.
These are just rah rah Ukraine puff pieces designed to pump up support for Ukraine along the lines of the Ghost of Kiev, Snake Island, Putin is terminally ill, Russia has run out of missiles, Russian troops are drunk, incompetent, stupid conscripts armed only with shovels, the sanctions are destroying the Russian economy, blah blah blah. If only the American taxpayers cough up more billions Ukraine will be victorious! Bullshit. |
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They seem to have an endless supply of those Scooby-Doo vans though.
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The Germans should make their move now and strike while the iron is hot.
Operation Barbarossa 2: Electric Buggaloo |
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Quoted: They're going to run out of soldiers too. View Quote Not for a long time. Russia will always have meat for their grinder. I believe UKR is in more trouble than Russia with raw manpower. Ukraine is shifting to a defensive posture that’s allowing Russia to bash their head against a wall. Kill ratio is over 7-1 now in many places. |
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Quoted: Russia will collapse any day now. These are just rah rah Ukraine puff pieces designed to pump up support for Ukraine along the lines of the Ghost of Kiev, Snake Island, Putin is terminally ill, Russia has run out of missiles, Russian troops are drunk, incompetent, stupid conscripts armed only with shovels, the sanctions are destroying the Russian economy, blah blah blah. If only the American taxpayers cough up more billions Ukraine will be victorious! Bullshit. View Quote You dont believe most Russian troops are stupid drunk conscripts? Thats Ukraine Propagnda? Snake Island didn’t happen? Who controls it? Missile SHORTAGE is somewhat true. Putin sick? Probably….who knows if terminal. Ghost of Kyiv? That was a meme 2 weeks after it happened on both sides. |
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Russia can natively produce 50 or so new tanks a month.
They can repair a few hundred a month from their stockpiles. What's amazing anymore is that any free civilian can pay for a satellite to fly over, and take very high quality photos of anything in the world... Including Russian military bases. When the war started, those bases with thousands upon thousands of tanks were flown over. As the war dragged on, many made note of how the seemingly endless stockpile has drawn down. Many reported over a year ago Russia would have to use t62..... Many, including people here made fun of them. Then a few months onward, Vietnam era t62 showed up on the battlefield. Then some noted a handful of t55s were taken out of. Storage... More fun made.. Then a few t55s showed up. Russia will never 'run' out of tanks : they can natively make 50-60 a month . They will be monkey model t90m with... Issues like no thermals. Enough so that a m2 Bradley can kill one with its main gun, not even a tow. |
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And what are Ukraines losses ? I would assume this works both ways.
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Quoted: Yep. Dupe from at least a year ago. Putin was dying any minute and Russia was out of artillery shells over a year ago, too. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Wasn't this the title of a bunch of news articles a year or two back? It seems they've been running out of tanks for a long time now! Yep. Dupe from at least a year ago. Putin was dying any minute and Russia was out of artillery shells over a year ago, too. They aren’t buying North Korean ammo because they are making enough of them…hint |
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Quoted: Is Russia Running Out of Tanks? According to one count, the Russian armed forces went to war in Ukraine in February 2022 with 2,987 tanks. After 23 months of hard fighting, the Russians have lost at least 2,619 tanks that independent analysts can confirm. That's 1,725 destroyed, 145 damaged, 205 abandoned and 544 captured T-55s, T-62s, T-72s, T-80s and T-90s. View Quote According to who? Who knew they only had 2,987 tanks to start? And the MOD numbers, is Ivan running around with a clip board counting how many have been blown up? When they find one burned up how do they know it's Russian and not one of their own when they are using the same vehicles? How do we know how many tanks Russia is currently producing? I dont trust the numbers from either side, but I've been hearing Russia is out of tanks, gear and people for over a year now. Both Ukranian and Russian supporters are proliferating propoganada and oblivous to it. But either side will just call the other on it, blind to the fact that they are doing the exact same. |
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Quoted: Wasn't this the title of a bunch of news articles a year or two back? It seems they've been running out of tanks for a long time now! View Quote Yes. They are in a full on war footing cranking out war materials with no signs of slowing down. We have barely started. We need to crank this shit to 11. Just an example article https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/10/28/russia-runs-out-of-tanks-as-war-intensifies/ Then they got some 1900 to replace them. https://bulgarianmilitary.com/amp/2023/11/09/russian-army-received-1900-tanks-and-another-200-are-expected/ |
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Quoted: According to who? Who knew they only had 2,987 tanks to start? And the MOD numbers, is Ivan running around with a clip board counting how many have been blown up? When they find one burned up how do they know it's Russian and not one of their own when they are using the same vehicles? How do we know how many tanks Russia is currently producing? I dont trust the numbers from either side, but I've been hearing Russia is out of tanks, gear and people for over a year now. Both Ukranian and Russian supporters are proliferating propoganada and oblivous to it. But either side will just call the other on it, blind to the fact that they are doing the exact same. View Quote Prob Janes....based upon publicly available info. |
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Quoted: Wasn't this the title of a bunch of news articles a year or two back? It seems they've been running out of tanks for a long time now! View Quote I can't wrap my mind around losing 3,000 tanks. That can't be accurate. That's A LOT of damn tanks. The Ukes must have lost a crapload, too. Think of 4-5,000 tanks just littering the countryside. |
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Quoted: Wasn't this the title of a bunch of news articles a year or two back? It seems they've been running out of tanks for a long time now! View Quote Yes, and some of what they were discussing has come to pass. Russia has gotten low on their newer models because so many have been lost. This is why T62s are seeing increased use, despite being badly outdated. An obsolete tank is better than no tank at all. Oryx tally of confirmed losses The link above is for those doubting the level of losses. Oryx only counts losses verified with photo or video confirmation. It is a believable minimum for losses, and the real total is certainly higher |
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Quoted: But that’s not an issue if you do t maintain them. lol View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: My brain hurts just thinking about maintaining 5 different models if tank. But that’s not an issue if you do t maintain them. lol Attached File |
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UKR will run out of people willing/able to fight long before that time frame. RUS can obtain more tanks, UKR can't obtain more people. This is in attrition mode now.
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You smoothbrains realize that we live in an age where anyone with a few hundred dollars can PURCHASE satellite coverage of a specific area that is equivalent to 1980s spy satellites?
You also realize that some autists have been ordering satellite flyby passes of specific vehicle storage depots in the Russian Federation for the last year, and also ordering historical overpass imagery of said storage depots? https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/08/08/russia-pulls-thousands-of-soviet-era-military-vehicles-from-major-storage-facility-a82088 The Vagzhanovo military equipment depot — located outside the republic of Buryatia’s capital of Ulan-Ude in eastern Siberia — is just one of nearly two dozen such sites identified by The Moscow Times’ Russian service using open-source data and it covers an area of over 10 square kilometers. Satellite imagery dated five months before Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine shows that around 3,840 Soviet-era tanks and armored vehicles were stored outside Vagzhanovo, according to the outlet. But over a year later in November 2022, around 2,600 of the military vehicles remained at the site — a decrease of just over 40% of the total amount observed before the war. View Quote |
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They will run out of tanks… or tank crews… I’m fine with either
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Quoted: And the MOD numbers, is Ivan running around with a clip board counting how many have been blown up? When they find one burned up how do they know it's Russian and not one of their own when they are using the same vehicles? View Quote Spare me from smoothbrains. This is the most intensely videographed war in history (to date). Yes, there are crazy autists documenting every loss. https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-ukrainian.html Ukrainian Losses https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html Russian Losses Click on each individual vehicle to see photographic evidence. While, yes; there are probably some miscounts due to vehicles being totally obliterated; Top Sekrit NATO military intel that has been leaked (thank you Airman Teixiria) show that Oryx loss counts are well within the ballpark figure for military planning. |
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Quoted: You smoothbrains realize that we live in an age where anyone with a few hundred dollars can PURCHASE satellite coverage of a specific area that is equivalent to 1980s spy satellites? You also realize that some autists have been ordering satellite flyby passes of specific vehicle storage depots in the Russian Federation for the last year, and also ordering historical overpass imagery of said storage depots? https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/08/08/russia-pulls-thousands-of-soviet-era-military-vehicles-from-major-storage-facility-a82088 View Quote Most likely the ones they have left were long ago scavenged for parts to keep their best ones running. Therefore they likely have much fewer even repairable tanks left then estimated. Those "autists" have also stated that many of the remaining tanks in storrage lack barrels. |
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Quoted: Ah and you know this person personally and are absolutely positive they have no bias? And you are positive they know where every single storage facility is? View Quote This person analyzed the base using easily available open source and free Google Maps/Earth satellite imagery taken between May and August 2023. https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1717896500884189600 Their conclusion Let's sum it up. From May 16 to early August [2023], approximately 80 days, there are 350-400 fewer vehicles at the base. This represents -20% of all vehicles at the base from May of this year. All sections of the base are in motion, including the obvious junk. Judging by the fact that the quality of the vehicles deteriorates with each deconservation, at the current rate of military operations, the Vagzhanovo base will be empty in about a year. And remember, this is the LARGEST military equipment base in Russia. You can look at the base yourself in google maps with this coordinate set. 51.88997701646232, 107.5247512467897 or... https://www.google.com/maps/place/51%C2%B053'23.9%22N+107%C2%B031'29.1%22E/@51.8899803,107.5221763,702 |
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Russia should buy old Iraqi tanks and check their fuel tanks for gold.
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Quoted: Spare me from smoothbrains. This is the most intensely videographed war in history (to date). Yes, there are crazy autists documenting every loss. https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-ukrainian.html Ukrainian Losses https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html Russian Losses Click on each individual vehicle to see photographic evidence. While, yes; there are probably some miscounts due to vehicles being totally obliterated; Top Sekrit NATO military intel that has been leaked (thank you Airman Teixiria) show that Oryx loss counts are well within the ballpark figure for military planning. View Quote So you get your info from a blog in the Netherlands put together by people who aren't in the country. You somehow believe they've managed to get a picture of every single destroyed vehicle and have accurately identified them with zero bias or effort to skew the numbers. (Bias from the soldiers sending photos as well not just the blog itself.) Lol. How many destroyed vehicles haven't been counted. |
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Maybe they run out of tanks. Who knows.
You know what they won’t run out of? Fighting men. Or at least, they won’t run out of them before Ukraine does, and I don’t see any NATO countries rushing to send their troops in to replace Ukrainian losses. This will end like it always does in a war of attrition. |
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Quoted: This person analyzed the base using easily available open source and free Google Maps/Earth satellite imagery taken between May and August 2023. https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1717896500884189600 Their conclusion Let's sum it up. From May 16 to early August [2023], approximately 80 days, there are 350-400 fewer vehicles at the base. This represents -20% of all vehicles at the base from May of this year. All sections of the base are in motion, including the obvious junk. Judging by the fact that the quality of the vehicles deteriorates with each deconservation, at the current rate of military operations, the Vagzhanovo base will be empty in about a year. And remember, this is the LARGEST military equipment base in Russia. You can look at the base yourself in google maps with this coordinate set. 51.88997701646232, 107.5247512467897 or... https://www.google.com/maps/place/51%C2%B053'23.9%22N+107%C2%B031'29.1%22E/@51.8899803,107.5221763,702 View Quote So he only watches one base? We will not know the extent of the war until it is over. These numbers are not accurate. |
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If and when this war ends, how big will the scrap metal biz grow ??
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Quoted: But that’s not an issue if you do t maintain them. lol View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: My brain hurts just thinking about maintaining 5 different models if tank. But that’s not an issue if you do t maintain them. lol Logistics win 5 models more logistics strain You lose |
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Quoted: So you get your info from a blog in the Netherlands put together by people who aren't in the country. You somehow believe they've managed to get a picture of every single destroyed vehicle and have accurately identified them with zero bias or effort to skew the numbers. (Bias from the soldiers sending photos as well not just the blog itself.) Lol. How many destroyed vehicles haven't been counted. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: So you get your info from a blog in the Netherlands put together by people who aren't in the country. You somehow believe they've managed to get a picture of every single destroyed vehicle and have accurately identified them with zero bias or effort to skew the numbers. (Bias from the soldiers sending photos as well not just the blog itself.) Lol. How many destroyed vehicles haven't been counted. I believe the Russian equipment loss numbers. What I do not believe are the Ukrainian equipment loss numbers, especially since the government openly scrubs every piece of media being put out. Quoted: Russia can natively produce 50 or so new tanks a month. They can repair a few hundred a month from their stockpiles. Russia has spent the last year surging manufacturing capacity and is more like 90+ a month. The real question is how many can Ukraine make per month? The answer is zero. They rely on places like Germany who can make 24 per year. This ends up being a problem. |
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