[ARCHIVED THREAD] - The housing boom is ending... (Page 1 of 5)
Posted: 11/12/2021 8:57:53 PM EDT
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Boise, believe it or not, is the town that everyone watches as being the hottest market in America. Now that markets are stabilizing, and homes are staying on the market longer and longer, what's next? Lots of people will be stuck in houses that will be worth substantially less than they paid for them. Balloon goes *pop*. |
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Quoted: I guess it will be time to start looking for some cheap rentals when people begin to default on their mortgages because they don't want to pay $200k for a house worth $120K. Those short sales are a steal if you can get a good one. That delta will be nothing... |
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We watch realtorcom and most of the properties on the market, excluding the new listings, have been marked down over the last month. 5-10% by my crappy math. I was shocked at what some real dumps were going for, not dumps in "up and coming neighborhoods" either. |
"good" I guess..  last house I bought, next year market fell and it was worth less than I owed. I waited till 2019 and finally got out ahead. (2 weeks ago it was worth 100K more than I got out of it) now I'm shopping again.. quality = $$$, shitty/needs a lot of work/small = $ I just want a $$ house...and few are in supply here |
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2008 crash was before I was in the housing market. I understand they were giving loans that people could not afford. Did the defaults on those loans cause the crash? I don’t see the loans as the issue this time around, what does the value of your home matter compared to your ability to repay? I owe $300k if my house is worth 500 or 900, right? Or is it a snowball of housing crashes, jobs decline, income declines and it compounds? |
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Quoted: 2008 crash was before I was in the housing market. I understand they were giving loans that people could not afford. Did the defaults on those loans cause the crash? I don’t see the loans as the issue this time around, what does the value of your home matter compared to your ability to repay? I owe $300k if my house is worth 500 or 900, right? Or is it a snowball of housing crashes, jobs decline, income declines and it compounds? You owe according to the loan. |
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Quoted: I guess it will be time to start looking for some cheap rentals when people begin to default on their mortgages because they don't want to pay $200k for a house worth $120K. Those short sales are a steal if you can get a good one. Short sale. That’s the term you were looking for. I remember the term well. One of my friends lost his ass on a home in Case Grande in the last crash. This one should prove to be a nail biter also. |
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Quoted: You owe according to the loan. I understand what I owe. Why would I default on my loan of the “value” dropped $200k? Is the housing market dropping indicative of an overall decline in the economy, therefore it drops even more and over and over? I don’t understand the “omg the housing market is slowing everyone will lose their houses” concept. If my “zestimate” drops to $200k I’ll still pay the loan I took out when I bought the house. |
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Quoted: 2008 crash was before I was in the housing market. I understand they were giving loans that people could not afford. Did the defaults on those loans cause the crash? I don’t see the loans as the issue this time around, what does the value of your home matter compared to your ability to repay? I owe $300k if my house is worth 500 or 900, right? Or is it a snowball of housing crashes, jobs decline, income declines and it compounds? It was a snowball of factors. I read a paper a few years ago arguing that high gas prices actually caused a lot of people to default on their loans. You had a lot of people that didn't have fixed rate, fully amortizing loans. They had 5 year adjustable rate mortgages. Inventory started hitting the market at fire sale rates. At the same time, the banks were losing their ass on both mortgage backed securities and the insurance sold on those securities. Of all those factors, some of them still remain. Loans are harder to get and the loan products are better, but we still have mortgage backed securities, and they are still insured. ETA: Between 2008 and 2009 almost 9 million people lost their jobs. They couldn't pay their notes. At the same time, mortgage rates had been rising since 2006, which meant that those ARMs were getting more expensive. |
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Quoted: No it's not. It's just slowing down because no one wants to sell their house in the winter. A lot of people prefer to try to time moves outside of the school year. |
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Quoted: I understand what I owe. Why would I default on my loan of the “value” dropped $200k? Is the housing market dropping indicative of an overall decline in the economy, therefore it drops even more and over and over? I don’t understand the “omg the housing market is slowing everyone will lose their houses” concept. If my “zestimate” drops to $200k I’ll still pay the loan I took out when I bought the house. Quoted: Quoted: You owe according to the loan. I understand what I owe. Why would I default on my loan of the “value” dropped $200k? Is the housing market dropping indicative of an overall decline in the economy, therefore it drops even more and over and over? I don’t understand the “omg the housing market is slowing everyone will lose their houses” concept. If my “zestimate” drops to $200k I’ll still pay the loan I took out when I bought the house. Back in 2008, a lot of houses were owned by speculators, “flippers”. I don’t get the sense that it’s the same today, but actual comparisons would be interesting. Loans never got as Ninja. |
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Quoted: It was a snowball of factors. I read a paper a few years ago arguing that high gas prices actually caused a lot of people to default on their loans. You had a lot of people that didn't have fixed rate, fully amortizing loans. They had 5 year adjustable rate mortgages. As these became due (and as HELOCs were called by the banks) people weren't able to pay. Inventory started hitting the market at fire sale rates. At the same time, the banks were losing their ass on both mortgage backed securities and the insurance sold on those securities. Of all those factors, some of them still remain. Loans are harder to get and the loan products are better, but we still have mortgage backed securities, and they are still insured. ETA: Between 2008 and 2009 almost 9 million people lost their jobs. They couldn't pay their notes. At the same time, mortgage rates had been rising since 2006, which meant that those ARMs were getting more expensive. See; Myrtle Beach |
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3 houses in my neighborhood have been for sale for a while now. Things are definitely slowing down. Someone from North Carolina actually just moved up the street. I kinda want to ask them if they were drunk and accidentally purchased a house in CT  . No idea why anyone would want to move up from the South to this shitty state.
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Quoted: 3 houses in my neighborhood have been for sale for a while now. Things are definitely slowing down. Someone from North Carolina actually just moved up the street. I kinda want to ask them if they were drunk and accidentally purchased a house in CT . No idea why anyone would want to move up from the South to this shitty state.A good paying Job. They got one. |
| Peeps have to live Somewhere. Apartments, Condos, tract homes, houses with acreage. More and more peeps need more and more places to live. It might slow down but will never end. Well, until commie .Gov takes it away from you. They Will Not take it away from ME, I'm a Boomer, doncha know. They Will Be taking it away from lesser generations. |
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Real estate follows a yearly seasonal trend. Spring/Summer is by far the best. Once school starts things slow down as parents don’t want to move districts during the school year and then people are concentrating on the holidays and it’s too damn cold. A big part of the previous crash was just garbage lending practices. Garbage by the lenders and garbage by the borrowers. I mean how many people got $500k mortgages with interest only payments of $2k a month thinking they could afford it. Then after the interest only period is over they get hit with a your mortgage is now $4k a month letter. |
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Quoted: I guess it will be time to start looking for some cheap rentals when people begin to default on their mortgages because they don't want to pay $200k for a house worth $120K. Those short sales are a steal if you can get a good one. I would kill to buy a house worth 120 for only 200k in my market. Cheapest house on the market in this town is just shy of 700K for something that needs close to 100k worth of work. |
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Quoted: Short sale. That’s the term you were looking for. I remember the term well. One of my friends lost his ass on a home in Case Grande in the last crash. This one should prove to be a nail biter also. Quoted: Quoted: I guess it will be time to start looking for some cheap rentals when people begin to default on their mortgages because they don't want to pay $200k for a house worth $120K. Those short sales are a steal if you can get a good one. Short sale. That’s the term you were looking for. I remember the term well. One of my friends lost his ass on a home in Case Grande in the last crash. This one should prove to be a nail biter also. The market just woke up on Casa Grande a few months ago. It took that long to recover |