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Japan will be ground based? LOL. Holy Fuck.
How is China going to invade Japan?
Let me guess, a sea based amphibious landing? With their 3 amphibious assault ships and 6 LCACs, supported by 1-2 carriers...maybe?
Backed by paratroopers bailing out of commercial airliners and their 58 Y-20 cargo planes dropping IFVs? You might want to familiarize yourself with exactly what China's ability to pick this fight amounts to, using what hardware?
They don't have the steel, or the logistics to invade Taiwan right now, much less Japan.
Their 3 assault ships total 2700 men, on shore, in an amphibious assault, they've never done before, supported by 2 carrier fleets (maybe) that have never been to war before, supported by a couple thousand paratroopers, who have never jumped in a real war before?
Nevermind the fact, that both forms of attack are viewed as non-starters in modern warefare. Taiwan isn't going to be a pushover like Grenada or Panama.
So how else is China going to dump and army in Taiwan or Japan for that matter?
South Korea isn't going to be much better, like Ukraine is finding out assaulting fortifications and breeching something like the DMZ under bombardment isn't going to go well, it's going to be absolutely miserable after we shootdown their Russian knock-off air force and we are annhilating them from aerial bombardment. South Korea is heavily fortified from a ground invasion, both NK and China are under no illusions as to the cost of that fight.
And as I stated before we are in no danger of depleting stockpiles, you're hand wringing over articles about 155mm shells. As was pointed out to you earlier, if we are running out of munitions supporting Ukraine after nearly 2 years, we'd be fucked in any real fight with China, which we aren't.
In my career I've spend a lot of time on several AF bases and a few bomb dumps across the world including few throughout PACAF. We aren't giving Ukraine any heavy ordnance that is going to be pivotal in stopping any real invasion. The US being short on 155mm shells really means, we have got to our mandatory minimums throughout worldwide stockpiles until our manufacturing catches up, until then here's some from SK.
We haven't touched anything the AF is going to be dropping on China, from the 1000+ aircraft we have positioned throughout the Pacific. The stockpiles of 500lb, 1000lb, 2000lb, 2500lb, 5000lb, JDAMs, Paveways, Bunker Busters, MOABs, etc. aren't being given to Ukraine and they won't be for the foreseeable future, simply because Ukraine has no ability to use such ordnance.
A picture of what Chinese land invasion on Taiwan would look like is that within 48 hours, whatever fleet China brings with be on the bottom of the ocean, their AF will never get to the drop and they will be attempting to bombard with TU-16s supported by knock-offs Migs and Sukhois.
"In reality Chinese A2AD means naval and air power won't get anywhere near striking distance." -
This statement is so ridiculous...first off there are already about 500 aircraft already in the Chinese first and second layers of the A2AD, as we speak. There are fleets of F-16s stationed in Osan, Kunsan, and Misawa, not including Taiwanese and Korean F-16s. F-15s on Kadena, and A-10s in Osan. Typically 2-3 squadrons of F-15s, F-16s, A-10s, F-22 and F-35s, on plus-up TDY rotations in Korea and Kadena.
With constant rotations of B-52's, B-1s, and B-2s on Diego Garcia and Guam, Not including at least 2 maybe 3 carrier battle groups and how many other Navy and Marine F-18 assets stationed on other NASs in the Pacific? Toss in a couple more fleets of F-15s, and F-22s from Hickam, and possible support of the RAAF in Australia, if not aircraft definitely basing, rearm and fuel.
So, in order for China to make a successful landing it has to deal with all that first, literally sitting on it's doorstep. Keep in mind basically doing all that perfectly...for the very first time. Not to mention the hundred+ B-52s, B-1s, and B-2s that are going to be coming non-stop, from stateside bases and launching cruise missiles from hundreds of miles out to overwhelm a handful of SAMs on defensive islands, supported by hundreds of cruise missiles coming of navy subs and other fleet assets from Hawaii far outside the Chinese A2AD. Then once all that movement happens in the first 48hrs, then comes the hundreds of F-15Es, from Elmendorf and Mt. Home, backed by Reserve, and ANG tankers coming from the west coast, dragging hundreds more fighters and bombers. This exact scenerio has been wargamed and excercised over and over. It never ends well for the Chinese.
Also you've made more very questionable statements. "Running out of everything for the enemy that poses little direct threat."
What constitutes everything? Explain, and back it up with something tangible. How are we giving them everything, to dangerous levels when they have no ability to expend it? We are running dangerously low on aerial delivery ordnance, even though we have given them little if anything over 250lb SDBs and they have no ability to deliver anything larger?
"We are already struggling", With what? Manufacturing aerial munitions that we aren't even supplying them?
"We have well surpassed the point to where we are affecting our actual readiness. - Again, how have we surpassed giving away munitions that effect our readiness, that we haven't given them because they have no ability to use it?
"Munition expenditures are more monthly than we can replace in years in some cases." - Again, which munitions?
What it sounds like you are bed wetting over is the article from NPR...(like they don't have an agenda) And your exasperation is over one single category of munition, 155mm.
https://www.npr.org/2023/04/07/1168725028/manufacturing-price-gauging-new-u-s-military-arms
View Quote
Some of your points were valid but you contradicted yourself with others. Regardless DOD prioritizes China as a threat and Xi Jinping makes that call not you. I see the balls deep crowd continually promotes the China ain’t gonna do shit theory along with if they do we’ll squash them with the Navy which doesn’t use ground stuff like Ukraine arguments over and over despite USMC and Taiwan both needing HIMARS. While I’m not in GD’s fuck Ukraine crowd I simply don’t concur with your characterization of the situation.