ATF/FBI have a task force to determine who illegally converted the sun to full auto.  

Well I'm glad I cut the grass yesterday.

Oh my God are we going to be ok?

This guys says there is now a 12% chance we won't

Needs more DOOM

Every time I’ve seen one of these warnings it had zero affect at work. Maybe in Canada or Alaska the grid sees it.

GRID DOWN CARRINGTON EVENT THIS WEEKEND??? / 6 POWERFUL SOLAR STORMS TO HIT EARTH THIS WEEKEND

A couple more days unit it's at the limb although it can still hit us with CMEs from there. Back in 2017 we had a geomagnetic storm an X11 flare that occurred right at the Western limb. I'd say by 3 days this spot will be 100% out of the strike zone but bulk CME hits become increasingly more unlikely the further it gets. Even CME from the X3.9 flare 6 hours ago has most of it's bulk going to the NW but judging by LASCO C2/C3, it looks like we'll still get some of the bulk hit from that one too.

FYI, the Oct 2003 solar storm was from an X28 flare (some models even have it as high as X45 since it saturated the sensors on those earlier GOES satellites) and even the monster CME from that flare did minimal damage on Earth. Sweden had a 1 hour power outage with no actual damage and South Africa lost 12 power transformers. Now we have SDO launched in 2011, STEREO-A and B launched in 2006, several generations newer GOES satellites with better instrumentation and a host of other things monitoring this stuff for more accurate warnings. We also have significantly better and more hardened power infrastructure and systems in place with utility companies to monitor and account for geomagnetic storms. I really wouldn't worry too much about the power grid.

That guy's channel gives me Forest Whitaker eye.

Nice SUVI video of the coronal shockwave from this morning's X3.9.

The X4 flare this morning.  See a spectacular global coronal wave. https://t.co/67HG5snHUb pic.twitter.com/lv3JcX7fuJ

Halo CME  (@halocme) May 10, 2024

My first thoughts too. But this is the first warning of this magnitude in 19 years.

Good info.

I would say I'm more "watching with interest" than "concerned" (probably describes most of the posters here).

What's your take on the CME's 'stacking' and hitting us one after another?  Doesn't each one distort and weaken our EM field somewhat, and make us more susceptible to more hits coming before it has time to recover?

Ya I’m curious to see if we see it at work with spicy voltage or on the transformers but I highly doubt. I mean 5 x 0 is still 0. GMD precautions are basically be vigilant. Great advice.

So am I going to have to pay my taxes next year or not?

Pancaking CMEs together is pretty common, especially at solar max which we're nearly at. Most of the biggest geomagnetic storms on record were some combination of factors that made them more intense. Usually it's CMEs interacting with faster solar wind from coronal holes that put on the best shows but it also depends on the orientation of the Earth's IMF (Interplanetary Magnetic Field). If we get a good, long Bz shift to a Southern orientation then that actually draws solar particles in instead of repelling them. (think 2 magnets when the poles are in opposition and vice/versa) Overly simplified, there are 3 things that feed the intensity of geomagnetic storms; solar material density, velocity and IMF Bz alignment. Density being the amount of solar material per square meter, speed being how fast it's hitting Earth and then the alignment of the IMF Bz axis. IMF is the Sun's magnetic field and it shifts between North and South unlike Earth's magnetosphere which keeps a constant orientation. Southern Bz orientation means the IMF is attracted to Earth's poles instead of repelled and those particles are then pulled down into the atmosphere where they interact with trace gasses just like electricity inside a neon tube and light emissions are what we get.

When a CME blasts out of the sun, it interacts with the particles that are already out there in the solar wind. Usually this causes some friction and thus the CME wave collectively slows down but also compresses those particles into it's own mass of particles. This leaves a bit of a void behind the CME wave so when another one behind it is ejected out with sufficient speed, it has less resistance slowing it down so it catches up to the one(s) ahead of it until they merge. This can repeat as many times as the Sun can spit CMEs out fast enough before they reach us. Typically it takes 3 days for a CME to reach us but on fast CMEs it can be less then 2 days. The merging of CMEs both increases the speed and density of the wave making it stronger giving you a boost to 2 of those 3 ingredients needed for favorable geomagnetic storming conditions. The overall strength of these is hard to predict, especially since we have no way of predicting IMF Bz orientation but DSCOVR and ACE are both at the L1 lagrange point so they give us ~6 hour preview of whatever is going to hit us.

Speaking of that, proton flux on ACE's EPAM is rising. Looks like we have the beginning of a shock arrival at L1 so 3 to 6 hours from Earth arrival is my guess.

Checking in from North Carolina. We somehow still have power.

Canada did a Canada wide emergency alert test on the 8th.

This is surely a sign of impending doom.

Re4member one gun show in that era where a guy was selling them out of a crate for 79 bucks per. Should have bought the damn crate.

Nick

I can tell you with certainty, if there is any damage to the grid, especially transmission lines, that could be a huge issue because there are very few spare replacement parts available. Most of the high voltage equipment is already back ordered for months if not years.

I am worried about the residual distribution grid since there are tons of fuses and breakers in that but transmission lines are much more susceptible to induction.

You never “have” to pay taxes.

I want to be ready.
... What Lube for Aurora ?

I would be more worried about the transformers going out on thermal from core saturation caused by the increased ground current. Literally unless we had received notification about the GMD event there was zero indication on the grid.

What time or day is "best" to keep an eye out for aurora's?

@ShiftSix  Tonight and Saturday night.

Astroglide, duh.

0600-0900 UTC on Saturday. Subtract  4 for east coast time so 0200 - 0500 EDT, that is when the Kp Index will be 8.3 which is classified as a SEVERE Geomagnetic storm, but may be visible Friday night also.

Forecast call for clean skies tonight and tomorrow night. Might drive a little further north into ND and visit my buddy on his farm for a even better view.

I'd suggest checking here:
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/

And here:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast

If it's dark, Ovation is showing a high percentage chance for your latitude and longetude, and SWL is showing G2 or higher plus a solidly negative Bz, I'd say conditions are good to potentially see aurora.
When Bz is consistently at or below -10 that usually means you have good conditions, if it's in the -20 range or lower, great conditions. Of course it's still hit or miss and obviously latitude and weather dependent.

I sat in on this morning’s media call with NOAA. It was eye opening. Here’s a synopsis of key points…

NOAA: “We’re anticipating multiple shocks, so we’re really buckling down here this weekend.”

NPR Reporter: “How do flares work? Help us understand how they can damage an oil pipeline.” SMH

AFP Reporter: “Which region will be impacted?”
NOAA: “It will be a global event, but will vary on magnitude based upon how the CME magnetic fields align with the Earth’s field.”

NOAA: “General public should always have a plan in place… radio, generator, batteries. Otherwise, no other action at this time other than to monitor space weather sources including NOAA and news outlets for a CME pulse warning.”

CNN: “What is NOAA’s level of concern? Also, are the ISS astronauts in danger?”
NOAA: “Yeah, we’re a little concerned now…. Especially with infrastructure and continuity of operations… discussing with FEMA.”

Takeaways:
- NOAA suggested people use their cell phones to take pictures of the northern lights - the phones can see it better than the human eye.
- The aurora can actually make crackling sounds when strong enough.
- The young reporters were primarily concerned about ’mah Internet.’ The more mature reporters were generally concerned with the power grid, communications, mitigation, etc.
- The demeanor of the NOAA panelists was slightly excited, a little concerned, and generally serious and professional. Unlike KJP and that bunch of Marxists, the panelists really wanted to answer questions and to keep the public informed.
- The phrase “Carrington Event” was tossed around considerably.
- NOAA may release warnings later today.

When should I annex my neighborhood and start subjugating my neighbors?

@Skywarner  

It is a thing, but with CMEs and not flares.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6956910/

Strong ionospheric currents associated with high AE cause space weather effects on ground. The space and time varying electric currents produce a varying magnetic field at the Earth’s surface, which in turn induces an electric field in the crust and upper mantle of the Earth. This electric field drives geomagnetically induced currents (GIC), which seek the highest conductivity paths, and thereby penetrate to long man-made conductors such as power transmission systems, communication cables, or natural gas pipelines in the high-latitude regions (e.g., Pulkkinen 2015). The voltage instabilities created by these currents can lead to damage to transformers connected to power grids, cause failures of connections in telecommunication cables, and result in corrosion in long pipelines if the currents flow between the pipeline and the insulating ground. Furthermore, the increased electron density and highly structured currents in the ionosphere can cause disturbance or loss of radio signals, and modify the signal from global navigation satellite systems such as the GPS and GALILEO fleets, thereby causing inaccuracies in positioning applications (e.g., Prikryl et al. 2014; Schrijver et al. 2015).

Again, these CMEs, even combined, have nowhere near the level of energy the Halloween 2003 CME had and it's impacting a much more modernized electrical infrastructure. That one had pretty minor impacts. I can appreciate NOAA taking the cautious route but I think they're hyping this up way more than it deserves. We've had several G4 events and 1 or 2 brief G5 periods in the last few years and no reports of mass outages. The only difference here is that this one will be less of a surprise hence the "first G4 prediction in 19 years" bit.

Cool.  I hope the clouds clear out of here so I can get some photographs of this massive sunspot pattern.

In case it doesn't:

NOAA says that seven Earth-directed CMEs are now currently in transit.

Source: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/severe-geomagnetic-storm-still-likely

Hopefully the weather stays clear enough.  
We’re ready for some views!

Attached File

And there's the first shock arrival at DSCOVR, about 36 min to earth at the current speed.

Initial Bz dip to -28. Nice!

Hope it lasts through night time here.

Attached File

-----https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/severe-geomagnetic-storm-still-likely



------

"At least......Seven earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs are in transit"


(Emphasis mine)

Thanks for the link skywarner.

What you keep leaving out is how much the earth’s magnetic field has decreased in strength since 2003. Also the much more modernized electrical infrastructure is more vulnerable to these storms.  Lastly there is 6 storms going to hit the earth in a short time. You can not compare this to 2003.

And no I don’t think this is going to take out the world’s power grid.

I remember reading that we are in the middle of a pole reversal.
Doesn't that play into the weakening of the field?

Very curious about what else it might cause too.

That is what I meant, the transmission transformers and switch gear, not the conductors.

Yes the magnetic field weakens during the pole shift.  It will continue to weaken until the poles actually flip.  How long until they go back to full strength after the poles have flipped I do not know.

Sounds like it'll get worse before it gets better. I'd imagine the remaining years of this sun spot cycle will get quite spicy if the sun keeps it up.

If it takes out the grid. You’ll find me in the woods doing Appalachian Guerrilla things. Act accordingly

Maybe a nudge from the CME train will set 'em to spinning.  The newly moving magnetic fields will interact with the Earth's iron core to form a giant generator, electrifying everything in direct contact with the Earth's surface.  People will be vaporized stepping off their porch into the yard or getting out of their car at the Mega Lo Mart.  Supply chain and society will collapse in the pursuit of rubber muck boots and Playtex gloves.

Anybody have Netflix's number?  

May be a few hundred to a thousand years.

https://eos.org/editors-vox/the-global-geomagnetic-field-of-the-past-hundred-thousand-years

https://www.windows2universe.org/earth/Magnetosphere/geomagnetic_field_strength_brunhes.html

Go ahead and post the curfew notice.

Maybe I missed it but, am I gonna get a really good suntan on the boat this weekend?

More like the old Sci-Fi channel movies than Netflix, but I fondly remember the hey days of the X vs Y type movies!

I haven't heard it in a while.

I wonder if we'll hear the

Emergency Alert System/ /Emergency Broadcast System

go off sometime this weekend.

Or not at all.